Leicester City Retail Capacity Study 2007 Final Report Prepared for Leicester City Council Prepared by: Property Consulting Group April 2008 CACI Limited CACI House Kensington Village Avonmore Road London W14 8TS Tel 020-7605 6000 Fax 020-7603 5862 -Leicester City Retail Capacity Study 2007- Table of Contents Leicester City Retail Capacity Study 2007 ......................................... 1 Table of Contents .......................................................................... 1 Table of Contents .......................................................................... 2 Table of Figures............................................................................. 4 Table of Annexes........................................................................... 6 1.0 Executive Summary.............................................................. 7 Introduction......................................................................................... 7 Taking into account Retail Planning Policy................................................ 7 Examining the Leicester City Study Area.................................................. 7 Reviewing the Health of Leicester’s Centre Hierarchy ................................ 8 Comparison Goods Capacity................................................................... 9 Supermarket Capacity........................................................................... 9 Deficiencies in convenience provision in the local centre network.............. 10 Review of need due to planned housing growth ...................................... 10 2.0 Study Brief and Methodology ............................................... 12 Purpose of Study ................................................................................ 12 Study Approach & Methodology ............................................................ 12 3.0 Policy Review for Planning Study .......................................... 16 National Planning Guidance.................................................................. 16 Planning Policy Statement 1: Delivering Sustainable Development (PPS1) . 16 Planning Policy Statement 6: Planning for Town Centres (PPS6) ............... 16 Planning Policy Guidance 13: Transport (PPG13) .................................... 18 Regional Planning Guidance ................................................................. 19 Regional Spatial Strategy for the East Midlands (RSS8) ........................... 19 Policy 13: Development in the Three Cities Sub-area ............................. 19 Development should support the continued growth and regeneration of Derby, Leicester and Nottingham, and maintain and strengthen the economic, commercial and cultural roles of all three Cities. This will be achieved by ensuring that provision is made for: .................................... 19 Outside Derby, Leicester and Nottingham, employment and housing development should be located within and adjoining settlements. Such development should be in scale with the size of those settlements, in locations that respect environmental constraints, in particular the River Mease Special Area of Conservation and the Derwent Valley Mills World Heritage Site, and the surrounding countryside, and where there are good public transport linkages. .................................................................... 20 Development associated with Nottingham East Midlands Airport should be focussed where possible in surrounding urban areas, in particular the Principal Urban Areas of Derby, Leicester and Nottingham and the Sub- Regional Centre of Loughborough. ........................................................ 20 Policy 21: Regional Priorities for Town Centres and Retail Development.... 20 Local Authorities, emda and Sub-Regional Strategic Partnerships should work together on a Sub-area basis to promote the vitality and viability of existing town centres, including those in rural towns. Where town centres are under performing, action should be taken to promote investment through design led initiatives and the development and implementation of town centre strategies. ......................................................................................... 20 Local Planning Authorities should: ........................................................ 20 Leicestershire, Leicester, and Rutland Structure Plan 1996-2016 .............. 20 Local Planning Guidance - City of Leicester Local Plan ............................. 23 Leicester City Council Page 2 of 116 @ Copyright CACI Ltd 17/04/08 Report Status: Final -Leicester City Retail Capacity Study 2007- 4.0 Leicester City Study Area .................................................... 27 Introduction....................................................................................... 27 Residential Summaries for each zone .................................................... 29 Resident and Daytime Population Levels ................................................ 36 Spend of Leicester’s Population ............................................................ 36 Forecast Population Growth ................................................................. 37 5.0 Centre Health Checks.......................................................... 39 Introduction....................................................................................... 39 Summary of Detailed Health Checks ..................................................... 40 General Review of All the Local Centres Identified in the Local Plan........... 49 6.0 Comparison Goods Needs Analysis........................................ 50 Introduction....................................................................................... 50 Retail Catchment Definitions ................................................................ 52 Figure 6.17 Evington Road Catchment Market Share ............................... 63 Figure 6.21 Narborough Road Catchment ACORN Profile.......................... 66 Capacity Analysis for 2007 – Current Deficiencies ................................... 67 Analysis for 2012 and 2017 – Future Needs ........................................... 68 7.0 Supermarket Needs Analysis................................................ 72 Introduction....................................................................................... 72 Retail Operator and Consumer Choice Analysis....................................... 74 Catchment Analysis – Leicester’s Large Format Superstores..................... 75 Analysis of Trading Densities................................................................ 76 Zone Turnover Analysis ....................................................................... 78 Consideration of Need to Address Current Imbalances of Trade ................ 79 Capacity and Needs Analysis ................................................................ 81 Analysis for 2012 and 2017 – Future Needs ........................................... 83 8.0 Local Convenience Store Needs Analysis ............................... 86 Introduction....................................................................................... 86 Capacity Analysis for 2007 – Current Deficiencies (Need) ........................ 87 Future Needs – including implications of New Growth Points .................... 89 Figure 8.4 Future needs analysis 2007-2017 .......................................... 91 9.0 Review of Local Plan and SPG’s ............................................ 92 Introduction....................................................................................... 92 Existing Town Centres......................................................................... 94 Existing District Centres ...................................................................... 95 Existing Local Centres ......................................................................... 97 Review of SPD/G’s for St George’s, Waterside and Abbey Meadows........... 99 New Centres at Growth Points outside of LRC Intervention Area ............. 104 10.0 Retail Study Conclusions ....................................................105 Introduction..................................................................................... 105 Conclusions on Identified Need through Quantitative Assessment ........... 105 Figure 10.3 Needs analysis for Local Convenience 2007-17.................... 108 Conclusions from Health Checks and Review of Retail Hierarchy ............. 109 11.0 Appendix – Reference Figures .............................................111 Leicester City Council Page 3 of 116 @ Copyright CACI Ltd 17/04/08 Report Status: Final -Leicester City Retail Capacity Study 2007- Table of Figures Figure 1.1 Zone Population Summary 2007 .................................................... 8 Figure 1.2 Net increases in resident population 2012, 2017 & 2026 ................... 8 Figure 4.1 Leicester Study Area Residential Zones......................................... 27 Figure 4.2 – Postcode Sector Definition of Residential Zones........................... 28 Figure 4.3a ACORN Profile of City Centre residents ........................................ 29 Figure 4.3b ACORN Profile of Eastern Inner residents..................................... 30 Figure 4.3c ACORN Profile of Eastern Outer residents .................................... 30 Figure 4.3d ACORN Profile of North East residents ......................................... 31 Figure 4.3e ACORN Profile of North West residents ........................................ 31 Figure 4.3f ACORN