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Early Warning Forecast 2 0 1 7 EARLY WARNING FORECAST 2 0 1 7 lwr.org/programs introduction s we at Lutheran World Relief anticipate the tremendous As an organization that draws inspiration from our faith, we humanitarian challenges we might face in the coming year, always embrace and maintain hope. We can clearly see that A a quote from Desmond Tutu comes to mind: “Hope is being significant progress is being made in reducing global suffering able to see that there is light despite all the darkness.” and poverty. As measured by the Millennium Development Goals, the number of people living in extreme poverty The world is trying to cope with what the U.N. is calling the and under-age-5 mortality has fallen by more than half. highest levels of displacement on record, much of it fueled Continuing that work, the world community has adopted a set by conflict in Syria and Iraq. Off and on civil war threatens of Sustainable Development Goals that are truly aspirational, to intensify in South Sudan, which will impact and possibly including reaching a statistical “zero” on extreme poverty, draw in neighboring countries. Around the world we are preventable child deaths and other targets. seeing blatant disregard for international humanitarian law, with the indiscriminate bombing of hospitals, schools and That’s why we round out our list of humanitarian hot spots other civilian targets, chemical warfare, and the use of food with signs of hope. For example, the power of information as a weapon. And we will continue to witness the effects of communications technology is feeding a rapid growth of climate change, through unpredictable weather patterns, the private sector and entrepreneurship in Africa, as well as which wreak havoc with the harvests that are the lifeline of in other parts of the developing world. This is helping us to the rural poor. reach a group — that has not reaped — many benefits from globalization, namely poor farmers, by helping them to be Overall, these climate and conflict-driven crises are triggering more productive, and gain access to more profitable local and simultaneous emergencies that are taxing the efforts of export markets. humanitarian agencies. Indeed more than three-quarters of people living in extreme poverty are in countries that are We are making real progress in reducing global poverty environmentally or politically fragile, or both. and now is not the time to turn inward or retreat. The international community must continue to engage, to fund LWR’s Early Warning Forecast singles out seven continuing or humanitarian response and development, and to support potential hot spots that may require humanitarian — and in the local communities bearing the brunt of these crises. Our some cases diplomatic — action in the next year. commitment to long-term sustainable development, and the tangible results we are seeing, will sustain our hope. Ambassador Daniel Speckhard (rt.) President and CEO 2 | lwr.org/programs 2017 Early Warning Forecast The 2017 Early Warning Forecast is an analysis prepared by the staff of Lutheran World Relief that includes the regions we are monitoring to be prepared for potential crises, as well as the work we are doing in these areas. 2017 contents WATCHLIST WHAT LUTHERAN WORLD RELIEF IS WATCHING FOR: SYRIA & NORTHERN IRAQ | War, Massive Civilian Displacement PHILIPPINES | Natural Disasters, Political Instability VENEZUELA | Failed State, Migration NIGERIA, NIGER, CHAD & CAMEROON | Regional Consequences of the Boko Haram Conflict EAST AFRICA (KENYA, SOMALIA, SOUTH SUDAN & UGANDA) | Political instability, Response to Refugees HAITI | Recovery from Hurricane Matthew THE NORTHERN TRIANGLE OF CENTRAL AMERICA (EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA) | Increased Violence and Migration 2017 WHERE WE SEE SIGNS OF HOPE: SIGNS OF HOPE BUILDING PEACE IN COLOMBIA THE PROMISE OF INFORMATION COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH: GOOD AND BAD NEWS 3 | lwr.org/programs SYRIA & NORTHERN IRAQ 2017 WATCHLIST Photo: LWF/ M. RenauxPhoto: LWF/ What we’re watching for: War, Massive Civilian Displacement The attempt by the Islamic State to create a caliphate What we’re doing: straddling northern Iraq and Syria has resulted in escalating LWR and other local partners are responding to the needs of armed conflict and is causing widespread displacement of families displaced in northern Iraq, providing food, basic relief civilians. In northern Iraq, a military offensive led by the Iraqi items and hygiene kits. LWR is supporting members of the security forces has led tens of thousands to flee to safety. In ACT Alliance, a coalition of more than 140 churches and faith- Syria, the fight against the Islamic State is but one dimension based organizations, in providing food and relief supplies, of the raging civil war that has led more than 6 MILLION emergency shelter, water and sanitation, and psychosocial PEOPLE to leave the country, while testing the ability of the support to Syrian refugees in Hungary, Serbia and Greece. In humanitarian system to deliver aid within the country. The Syria, LWR is working with International Orthodox Christian vast majority of these refugees have resettled in five Middle Charities to offer cash-for-work activities, designed to ease Eastern countries — Turkey (which alone is hosting 2.7 million the economic strain on internally displaced Syrians, who Syrians), Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt — where the influx have few options to earn income to support their families, is increasingly causing political, economic and social strain. by providing them the opportunity to work on community development projects. And in Jordan LWR is working with a Key Indicators: local partner to provide training to Syrian women on how to start their own businesses. 10 MILLION PEOPLE in Iraq are currently in need of humanitarian assistance. 70% OF SYRIAN REFUGEES in Lebanon and 86% residing in camps in Jordan live in extreme poverty. More than 2.5 MILLION SYRIAN CHILDREN now live as refugees; children born during Syria’s ongoing conflict are at risk for statelessness and violation of their fundamental rights due to challenges in obtaining legal documentation. 4 | lwr.org/programs PHILIPPINES 2017 WATCHLIST What we’re watching for: Natural Disasters, Political Instability The Philippines — located in the Ring of Fire, a horseshoe- What we’re doing: shaped belt in the Pacific Ocean where a large number of Working within the local barangay municipal structure in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur — is constantly Mindanao, LWR has helped establish several Barangay under threat of meteorological and geological disaster. Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Committees. Each year about 20 TYPHOONS hit the country, the most LWR has assisted these committees in identifying potential devastating recent event being Typhoon Haiyan, which risks, developing community-based disaster plans, and claimed more than 6,000 lives in November 2013. The implementing strategies to minimize community vulnerability U.N. cited effective disaster preparedness, including early to disasters. LWR is continuing with our long-term recovery warning systems and targeted evacuations, as a factor in programs in response to Typhoon Haiyan, as well as the reducing casualties in more recent storms. Currently, the less-destructive Typhoon Hagupit from 2014. country is focusing on preparing for a potentially devastating earthquake of a magnitude up to 8.0 that could hit metro Manila, home to 11.8 million people. A quake of this Key Indicators: magnitude could cause as many as 30,000 deaths and would cripple an urban region that accounts for 37 percent of the EIGHT OUT OF 10 of the world’s cities most vulnerable country’s gross domestic product. We are also keeping an to natural disasters are in the Philippines. eye on the country’s political climate, as a new president has Seismologists believe that the Marikina fault system, shaken up alliances and provoked controversy. which runs through Metropolitan Manila, is due for major movement. An earthquake as strong as 8.0 MAGNITUDE is considered a strong possibility. 5 | lwr.org/programs VENEZUELA 2017 WATCHLIST What we’re watching for: Failed State, Migration Venezuela is a country on the brink, with major regional What we’re doing: implications if it should fail, especially for neighboring LWR is working in neighboring Colombia and is committed Colombia. Venezuela is embroiled in an economic and to supporting sustainable rural development in that nation’s political crisis that has included food shortages and runaway countryside that will be key to maintaining peace and stability inflation. The Council on Foreign Relations reports that “basic after five decades of conflict. As Venezuela’s economy falters, food and medicine are in severely short supply.” There have large-scale migration to neighboring countries becomes been large public protests against the Maduro government. an increasing possibility, and northeast Colombia would In November alone, Venezuela’s currency LOST 60 PERCENT likely have to absorb much of it. Development and peace in of its value on the black market. According to news reports, Colombia could act as a stabilizing factor in the region and merchants have resorted to weighing the piles of cash an encouragement for Venezuela as it copes with its internal needed to buy goods to determine their value, as there are struggles, forestalling major migration in the region. too many bills to count individually. The government has announced that in mid-December it will begin circulating higher denomination
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