BIG PICTURE

The Next 20 Years: How Customer and Workforce Attitudes Will Evolve Generations are among the most powerful forces in history. Tracking their march through time lends order – and even a measure of predictability – to long-term trends. by Neil Howe and William Strauss

URING THE MIDDLE AGES, travelers reported an unusual custom among villagers in central France. Whenever an event of local importance occurred, the elders boxed the D ears of a young child to make sure he remembered that event all his life. Like those medieval villagers, each of us carries deeply felt as- sociations with various events in our lives. For Americans, Pearl Harbor, the Kennedy and King assassinations, the Challenger explosion, and 9/11 are burned into our consciousness; it is im- possible to forget what we were doing at the time. As we grow older, we realize that the sum total of such events has in many ways made us who we are. Exactly how they affected us is related

Matt Vincent Matt to how old we were when they occurred.

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This is what constitutes a generation: launched a “consciousness revolution” what public events they witnessed in It is shaped by events or circumstances to demand that their war-hero elders adolescence, and what social mission according to which phase of life its mem- live up to higher moral standards. they took on as they came of age. bers occupy at the time. As each gen- Twenty years later U.S. campuses Our focus as scholars has been on eration ages into the next phase – from experienced another surprising shift. understanding generational personae youth to young adulthood to midlife to The Wall Street Journal noted in 1990, and how they come together in soci- elderhood – its attitudes and behaviors “It is college presidents, deans, and ety to create a national character that mature, producing new currents in the faculties – not students – who are the continually evolves as new generations public mood. In other words, people zealots and chief enforcers of Political emerge and old ones pass away. This would be a fascinating study even if it were solely for the Rather than puzzling over why 20-year-olds were self-absorbed purposes of historical un- moralizers in the 1960s but are busy and risk-averse achievers today, derstanding. But its value is far greater than that. What one must recognize them as members of distinct generations. we have found is that gen- erations shaped by similar early-life experiences often do not “belong” to their age brackets. Correctness.” This batch of students, develop similar collective personae A woman of 40 today has less in com- Generation X, was born during the con- and follow similar life trajectories. The mon with 40-year-old women across sciousness revolution. The children of patterns are strong enough to support the ages than with the rest of her gener- divorce, latchkeys, and ad hoc day care, a measure of predictability. Historical ation, which is united by memories, lan- they showed much less ideological pas- precedent makes it possible to foresee guage, habits, beliefs, and life lessons. sion than their elders and brought a new how the generations alive today will Generations follow observable his- pragmatism to the nation’s campuses. think and act in decades to come. torical patterns and thus offer a very Today graying college leaders on the In this article we will share some powerful tool for predicting future verge of retirement continue to carry highlights of our ongoing effort to do trends. To anticipate what 40-year-olds the ideological torch, crusading for vari- just that. For businesspeople who man- will be like 20 years from now, don’t ous causes in ways that often irritate age operations or sell products in the look at today’s 40-year-olds; look at their younger Gen X colleagues. Mean- United States, the analysis offered here today’s 20-year-olds. while, undergraduates are showing has enormous implications for strate- People of a given age may vary quite yet another generational personality: gic planning, brand positioning, and dramatically from era to era. Recall, for The members of this rising Millennial management of the workplace. (More example, Sproul Hall at UC Berkeley Generation tend to be upbeat, team- broadly, of course, it informs discus- in 1964 and the students wearing com- oriented, close to their parents, and sions of war and peace and America’s puter punch cards that proclaimed confi dent about their future. Unlike capacity to face its most diffi cult chal- “I Am a Student! Do Not Fold, Spindle, Boomers, they do not want to “teach lenges.) For executives in other coun- or Mutilate!” They were mocking the the world to sing.” Unlike Gen Xers, they tries, the analysis suggests insights automated treatment the university don’t “just do it” – they plan ahead. that might also be gained in their parts was supposedly giving them. In the Rather than puzzling over why 20- of the world: the insights that come years after World War II, Americans had year-olds were self-absorbed moralizers from seeing change through the lens grown used to the Silent Generation’s in the 1960s but are busy and risk-averse of generations. conformist college students. Now a new achievers today, one must recognize generation was arriving: the baby boom them as members of distinct genera- The Generational Constellation raised in the aftermath of the war. By tions. To learn why they (or any two Any society is the sum of its parts – the the end of the 1960s these confronta- generations) are different, one can look generations that coexist at that mo- tional, megaphone-toting students had at how they were raised as children, ment in time. America today combines six. (Nineteen generations have come of Neil Howe ([email protected]) and William Strauss ([email protected]) are age since the time of the Mayfl ower, in the authors of Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069 (1991), The the 1620s. See the exhibit “America as a Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (1997), and Millennials Rising: The Next Great Gen- Sequence of Generations” for details.) eration (2000), among other books, and are the founding partners of LifeCourse Associates, The GI Generation (born 1901–1924, a publishing, speaking, and consulting company in Great Falls, Virginia. Visit hbr.org for addi- now age 83–106) arrived after the Great tional analysis by the authors regarding how current generations will rise to a national crisis. Awakening of the late nineteenth cen-

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11284284 Howe.inddHowe.indd 4242 66/7/07/7/07 99:07:14:07:14 AMAM tury. Zealously protected by Progressive- era parents, its members enjoyed a “good kid” reputation and accounted for the sharpest rise in school achieve- ment ever recorded. As young adults, they were the fi rst Miss Americas and all-American athletes. In midlife they built up the postwar “affl uent society,” erecting suburbs, inventing miracle vaccines, plugging missile gaps, and launching moon rockets. Though they defended stable families and conven- tional mores, no generation in the his- tory of polling got along worse with its own children. They were greatly in- vested in civic life, and focused more on actions and behavior than on values and beliefs. Their unprecedented grip on the presidency (1961 through 1992) began with the New Frontier, the Great Society, and Model Cities, but encom- passed Vietnam, Watergate, Iran-contra, and budget defi cits. As “senior citizens” (a term popularized to describe them), the GIs safeguarded their “entitlements” but had little infl uence over culture and values. Early in this century they were honored with memorials, fi lms, and books. Roughly half of those still alive rock and rollers, antiwar leaders, femi- were the indulged products of postwar are in dependent care. nists, public-interest lawyers, and men- optimism, Tomorrowland rationalism, The Silent Generation (born 1925– tors for young fi rebrands. They were and a Father Knows Best family order. 1942, now age 65–82) grew up as the America’s moms and dads during the Though community spirit was strong seen-but-not-heard Little Rascals and divorce epidemic. They rose to political during their youth, the older genera- Shirley Temples of the Great Depres- power after Watergate, their congres- tions were determined to raise young sion and World War II. Its members sional behavior characterized by a push people who would never follow a Hitler, came of age just too late to be war he- toward institutional complexity and a a Stalin, or a Big Brother. Coming of roes and just too early to be youthful vast expansion of the legal process. To age, Boomers loudly proclaimed their free spirits. Instead they became, like date they are the fi rst generation never scorn for the secular blueprints of their James Dean, “rebels without a cause,” to elect a U.S. president or to appoint a parents – institutions, civic participa- part of a “lonely crowd” of risk-averse chief justice of the Supreme Court. As tion, and team playing – while seeking technicians in an era in which early elders, they have focused on discussion, inner life, self-perfection, and deeper marriage, the invisible handshake, and inclusion, and process (as with the Iraq meaning. The notion of a melting pot, climbing the career ladder seemed to Study Group’s list of 79 recommenda- the full-time mom, the suburbs and big guarantee success. As gray-fl annel con- tions) but not on decisive action. Ben- auto at home, and the troops and dom- formists, they accepted the institutional efi ting more than other generations ino theory abroad all came under their civic life and conventional culture of have or will from ample late-in-life pay- withering criticism. During the Boom- the GIs until the mid-1960s, when they outs (defi ned-benefi t pensions, retiree ers’ youth, crime rates, substance abuse, stopped taking their cues from those health care, golden parachutes), they and sexual risk taking all surged while higher up on the age ladder and started have entered retirement with a hip life- academic achievement and SAT scores looking down – following Bob Dylan’s style and unprecedented affl uence. fell. The consciousness revolution cli- lead (“I was so much older then, I’m The Boom Generation (born 1943– maxed with Vietnam War protests, younger than that now”). They became 1960, now age 47–64) began as feed- the Summer of Love (1967), the Demo- America’s leading civil-rights activists, on-demand Dr. Spock babies. They cratic convention in Chicago (1968),

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America as a Sequence of Generations

A generation encompasses a series of consecutive birth years spanning roughly the length of time needed to become an adult; its members share a location in history and, as a consequence, exhibit distinct beliefs and behavior patterns. Nineteen generations have lived on American soil since the Puritans came to New England; the twentieth is just now arriving.

Birth Famous member Famous member Era in which members GENERATION years (man) (woman) came of age Archetype

Puritan 1588–1617 John Winthrop Anne Hutchinson Puritan Awakening Prophet

Cavalier 1618–1647 Nathaniel Bacon Bridget Bishop –Nomad

Glorious 1648–1673 Robert “King” Carter Hannah Dustin Glorious Revolution Crisis Hero

Enlightenment 1674–1700 Cadwallader Colden Mary Musgrove – Artist

Awakening 1701–1723 Jonathan Edwards Eliza Lucas Pinckney Great Awakening Prophet

Liberty 1724–1741 George Washington Mercy Warren – Nomad

Republican 1742–1766 Thomas Jefferson “Molly Pitcher” American Revolution Crisis Hero

Compromise 1767–1791 Andrew Jackson Dolley Madison – Artist

Transcendental 1792–1821 Abraham Lincoln Elizabeth Cady Stanton Transcendental Awakening Prophet

Gilded 1822–1842 Ulysses S. Grant Louisa May Alcott Civil War Crisis Nomad * Progressive 1843–1859 Woodrow Wilson Mary Cassatt – Artist

Missionary 1860–1882 Franklin D. Roosevelt Emma Goldman Third Great Awakening Prophet

Lost 1883–1900 Harry Truman Dorothy Parker – Nomad

GI 1901–1924 John F. Kennedy Katharine Hepburn Depression–WW II Crisis Hero

Silent 1925–1942 Martin Luther King, Jr. Nancy Pelosi – Artist

Boom 1943–1960 George W. Bush Hillary Clinton Consciousness Revolution Prophet

Generation X 1961–1981 Barack Obama Sarah Palin – Nomad

Millennial 1982–2005? Mark Zuckerberg Hilary Duff Millennial Crisis? Hero?

Homeland 2005–2025? – – –

* The absence of a hero archetype during the mid-1800s is the one exception we have observed in a cycle that extends back through American and Anglo-American history to the Renaissance. Exceptions like this, which we suspect may be more frequent in other modern societies (from Europe to China), demonstrate that the course of history is never predetermined. In The Fourth Turning we speculate on why the cycle sometimes misses a beat. In the U.S. case, the timing and extreme severity of the Civil War apparently prevented the Progressive Generation from assuming an expanded civic role. Public institutions remained mostly in the hands of the Gilded Generation until nearly the end of the century.

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11284284 Howe.inddHowe.indd 4444 66/7/07/7/07 99:07:29:07:29 AMAM Woodstock (1969), and Kent State They are already the greatest entrepre- Xers are adopting a highly protective (1970). In the 1970s Boomer women be- neurial generation in U.S. history; their style of nurturing this generation, but gan challenging the glass ceiling in the high-tech savvy and marketplace re- half of its babies will have Millennial workplace. Both genders designated silience have helped America prosper parents. It is still too early to set their themselves the arbiters of the nation’s in the era of globalization. Of all the fi rst birth year, which will become clear values, crowding into fi elds like teach- generations born in the twentieth cen- in time. ing, religion, journalism, law, marketing, tury, Gen X includes the largest share and the arts. During the 1980s many of immigrants. Xers have made barely Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist Boomers refashioned themselves as any impression in civic life; they be- Society undergoes change in large part yuppie individualists in an era of de- lieve that volunteering or helping peo- because the generations within it wax regulation, tax cuts, and entrepreneur- ple one-on-one is more effi cacious than and wane, arrive and depart. But shifts ship. During the 1990s they trumpeted voting or working to change laws. also occur because, as even the snap- a “culture war,” touted a divisive “poli- The Millennial Generation (born 1982 shot descriptions above make clear, tics of meaning,” and waged scorched- to roughly 2005, now age 25 or younger) the people who compose a generation earth political battles between “red” arrived after the consciousness revolu- change as they age. To predict how any and “blue” zones. As parents, they have tion, when “Baby on Board” fi rst began given generation will mature, we can developed very close individual rela- to appear in minivan windows. As abor- look at the experiences of previous tionships with their children, to the tion and divorce rates ebbed, popular generations born under similar circum- point of hovering. From fi rst birth co- culture began recasting babies as spe- stances. In particular, it’s useful to con- hort to last, their generation has suf- cial and stigmatizing hands-off parental sider generations with comparable “age fered declining economic prosperity. styles. Hollywood replaced cinematic locations” relative to key eras. (See the Generation X (born 1961–1981, now demons with adorable children who in- exhibit “The Generational Diagonal.”) age 26–46) grew up in an era of failing spired adults to become better people. It matters very much to the makeup schools and marriages, when the col- The fertility rate rebounded, following of a generation whether it comes of lective welfare of children sank to the the baby bust of Generation X, and sur- age during or after a period of national bottom of the nation’s priorities, and veys showed a climb in the percentage crisis, or during or after a period of cul- dozens of fi lms portrayed children who of children who were “wanted.” Child tural renewal or awakening. We like to were literally demons or throwaway abuse and child safety were hot topics label these four major kinds of genera- survivalists. Xers learned early on to through the 1980s, while books preach- tions with the shorthand of archetypes: distrust institutions, starting with the ing family values became best sellers. prophet, nomad, hero, and artist. The family, as the adult world was rocked By the mid-1990s politicians were defi n- generations of each archetype share by the sexual revolution, the rise in ing adult issues (from tax cuts to Inter- not only a similar age location in his- divorce, and an R-rated popular cul- net access) in terms of their effects on tory, but also similar attitudes toward ture. With their mothers entering the children. Educators spoke of standards, family, culture and values, risk, and workplace before child care was widely cooperative learning, and “no child left civic engagement. As each archetype available, many endured a latchkey behind.” Millennials as a generation ages, its persona undergoes profound childhood. By the mid-1980s MTV, hip- have seen steady decreases in high- and characteristic changes. hop, and a surging interest in business risk behaviors. As the oldest of them Prophet generations are born af- and military careers had marked a new graduate into the workplace, record ter a great war or other crisis, during and hardening pragmatism in their numbers are gravitating toward large a time of rejuvenated community life mood. Surveys (and pop culture) institutions and government agencies, and consensus around a new societal pointed to greater risk taking among seeking teamwork, protection against order. Prophets grow up as increasingly the young. Over the next decade crime risk, and solid work–life balance. Their indulged children, come of age as the and teen pregnancy rates soared. Af- culture is becoming less edgy, with narcissistic young crusaders of a spiri- ter navigating a sexual battleground a new focus on upbeat messages and tual awakening, cultivate principles as of AIDS and blighted courtship rituals big brands, and more conventional, moralistic midlifers, and emerge as wise as young adults, Xers have dated cau- with a resurgence of oldies and remakes. elders guiding another historical crisis. tiously and married late. Many of them Their close relationships with their par- Because of their location in history, have begun to construct the strong ents and extended families are carrying such generations tend to be remem- families that they missed in childhood. over into their young adult lives. bered for their coming-of-age passion In jobs they prefer free agency over cor- The Homeland Generation (born and their principled elder stewardship. porate loyalty, with three in fi ve saying roughly 2005–2025) is now beginning Their primary endowments relate to they someday “want to be my own boss.” to arrive in America’s nurseries. Gen vision, values, and religion.

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11284284 Howe.inddHowe.indd 4545 66/7/07/7/07 99:07:34:07:34 AMAM 11284284 Howe.inddHowe.indd 4646 66/7/07/7/07 99:07:43:07:43 AMAM Nomad generations are born dur- pathic post-awakening elders. Because nials, and Homelanders who play the ing a cultural renewal, a time of social of their location in history, such genera- central roles in shaping tomorrow’s so- ideals and spiritual agendas, when tions tend to be remembered for their cial mood. youth-fi red attacks break out against quiet years of rising adulthood and the established institutional order. They their midlife years of fl exible, consensus- The Elderhood of Boomers grow up as underprotected children, building leadership. Their primary en- In 2006 the media were fi lled with come of age as the alienated young dowments relate to pluralism, expertise, stories about Boomers reaching their adults of a post-awakening world, mel- and due process. sixties, from Presidents Bush and Clin- low into pragmatic midlife leaders We’ve said that historical events ton to the characters on the television during a crisis, and age into tough post- and circumstances shape generations. series Twenty Good Years. Boomers crisis elders. Because of their location It seems clear that the reverse is also approached old age with a splash, de- in history, such generations tend to be true, giving rise to a rhythm in his- termined to transform elderhood in remembered for their rising-adult years tory itself. Our four archetypes have some meaningful way. Glimpses of this of hell-raising and their midlife years recurred in the same order, with only can be caught in the “conscious aging” of get-it-done leadership. Their primary one exception, throughout American movement, in which older Boomers endowments relate to liberty, survival, history, and we have observed this gen- are constructing a new social ethic of and honor. eral pattern in many other societies decline and death, much as they did Hero generations are born after a around the world as well. What may at with sex and procreation in their youth. spiritual awakening, during a time of fi rst seem to be amazing coincidence Whereas their youthful ethos stemmed individual pragmatism, self-reliance, turns out to be simply the reaction of from self-indulgence, their elder ethos laissez-faire, and national (or sectional each generation to what it perceives will hinge on self-denial. To be sure, or ethnic) chauvinism. Heroes grow as the excesses of its elders. Thus much of it will be symbolic only: Just as up as increasingly protected children, Boomers in middle age (a prophet gen- aging GIs glorifi ed national consump- come of age as the valiant young team eration, focused on values, individual- tion but personally maintained their workers of a crisis, demonstrate hubris ism, and inner life) have been raising frugal habits, aging Boomers will glo- rify the virtues of self-denial but per- sonally maintain (to the extent their Deep into old age, Boomers will take pride in continuing incomes allow) their creature-comfort to dominate America’s culture, religion, and values. indulgence. Deep into old age, Boomers will take Experiencing a physical decline, they will elevate the soul pride in continuing to dominate Amer- over the body. ica’s culture, religion, and values. Expe- riencing a physical decline, they will elevate the soul over the body. Graying as energetic midlifers, and emerge as Millennial children (a hero generation, feminists, environmentalists, human- powerful elders beset by another spiri- focused on actions, community, and ists, and evangelicals will impart a new tual awakening. Because of their loca- institutional life). Archetypes create passion to old enthusiasms as they rail tion in history, such generations tend opposing archetypes. In other words, against shopping malls, globalization, to be remembered for their collective your generation isn’t like the genera- bureaucracies, pop culture, and all the coming-of-age triumphs and for their tion that shaped you. It’s like the gen- other false idols of the modern world. hubristic elder achievements. Their pri- eration that shaped the generation that Many Boomers, after disengaging from mary endowments relate to community, shaped you. the world of work, will become reli- affl uence, and technology. What does all this mean about the gious or ideological missionaries. Elder Artist generations are born during a customers and employees who are the priests, ministers, rabbis, and imams great war or other crisis, a time when lifeblood of your business? Let’s take a will sharpen their sermonizing about worldly perils boil off the complexity of close look at the aging of the four gen- good and evil and demand that civic life, and public consensus, aggressive in- erations of Americans whose presence ritual be infused with a sense of the sa- stitutions, and personal sacrifi ce prevail. will still be vital 20 years from now. The cred. As Gen Xers increasingly take over Artists grow up as overprotected chil- last of the GIs will have passed on, and cultural institutions, Boomers’ resis- dren, come of age as the sensitive young the Silents will have entered late elder- tance to the Gen X lifestyle will become adults of a post-crisis world, break free hood, with its increasing dependence more pronounced. Convinced that their as indecisive midlife leaders during a and disengagement from public life. own cultural values are superior, they spiritual awakening, and age into em- It will be Boomers, Gen Xers, Millen- will focus on shaping the outlook of

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Millennials. They will try to impress “retirement” will acquire negative con- household incomes was relatively nar- younger Americans more by who they notations of indolence and mindless row, but during their adulthood it has are than by what they do – more by consumption. The new goal for “seri- broadened substantially under the their passions than by their accomplish- ous” elders will be not to retire but to rubrics of individuality, markets, and ments. They will remain dominant con- replenish or reflect – if not simply choice. In old age Boomers will argue sumers of culture – theater, art galler- to keep working. heatedly over this trend. The market ies, even rock concerts – though much By forging an antiretirement ethic, for high-end goods and services will re- of their Woodstock and Earth Day mes- Boomers will in part be making a vir- main strong (this generation includes sage will sound remote and preachy to tue out of necessity: This generation an unprecedented number of centimil- younger generations. “Cultural tourism” (especially its later-born members) has lionaires), but the middle and low-end and wilderness outings will gray with experienced a much slower growth markets will suffer. Boomers, as they continue to overnight in income than the Silent, and today In the community and politics. El- at monasteries, visit wineries, explore faces an insurmountable lag in average der Boomers will be closer physically, biodiverse beaches, and gaze on pris- household net worth. Boomers have fi nancially, and attitudinally to their tine mountains. neither saved as much nor been as well grown children than their own parents Elder Boomers will seek products, insured by their employers – and they were to them. Many aging Boomers services, and living environments that expect that public programs like Social will remain at the head of multigenera- express their convictions. Some will es- Security and Medicare will be cut owing tional households. They will urge young chew high-tech medicine in favor of ho- to the size of their generation. But later people to serve community ahead of listic self-care, natural foods, and mind- retirement will also refl ect the Boomer self – shaping the young to be quite body healing techniques. As the oldest mind-set. Even affl uent Boomers may unlike themselves. Having spread a of them reach the age where they need pursue new careers late in life, often vocabulary of self-esteem and self-love more medical care, some hospitals are in high-prestige but low-paying (or un- throughout today’s schools and media, opening wings that feature natural paid) emeritus positions. Rather than some Boomers will criticize young peo- foods, alternative medicine, and spiri- aging as institutional fi xtures, elder ple for repeating it back to them. tual counseling. However frail they Boomers will try to become consultants Many elder Boomers will be frus- may become, Boomers will want to be and independent contractors, working trated as they lose infl uence in politics, in control of their surroundings. The remotely to maintain a self-suffi cient unsure whether their Gen X succes- sors are up to the task. They will not, however, think of themselves as “senior Houses, cars, and computers will be produced for and citizens” or cling to political power advertised to individual consumers. Older generations deep into their old age. Social Security was a generational bond for GIs and a will look back wistfully to a time when products (and jobs) play-by-the-rules annuity for Silents. To came in standard shapes and sizes. maintain the same level of dependence on the young, Boomers would have to wage political war on their Millennial GI-era surge in planned-care communi- lifestyle. To younger generations in the children – something they will not do. ties, already slowing among Silent re- workplace, old Boomers will appear (Nor could they win if they did.) As they tirees, will be thrown into reverse. Un- highly eccentric. Their prized other- become increasingly less able to turn like elderly GIs, who sought out tight worldliness will strike younger workers fi scal benefi ts in their direction, the peer communities far from their fami- as incompetence, and what they see as “Money can’t buy me love” generation lies (such as Sun City, Arizona), elderly ethical perfectionism will sometimes will once again focus its energy on cul- Boomers will avoid large-scale pre- look to the young like hypocrisy. How- ture and values. planned communities and keep their ever much the rising generations may families around them. Experts have respect Boomers for their vision and The Midlife of Generation Xers already identifi ed “naturally occurring values, they may also dismiss them as Gen Xers will retain their reputation retirement communities,” where Boom- insuffi ciently plugged in. for alienation and disaffection as they ers are simply aging in place. Retiring Boomers will experience enter their fi fties – meaning that the In the workplace and the economy. not only a disappointing growth in midlife age bracket of American soci- As Boomers reach the traditional retire- wealth, on average, but also a widen- ety will no longer be associated with ment age, many will remain involved ing inequality in its distribution. When moral authority but, rather, with tough- in the working world. The very word they were growing up, the range of ness, grittiness, and practicality. More

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11284284 Howe.inddHowe.indd 4848 66/7/07/7/07 99:07:57:07:57 AMAM than people of other generations, Gen Even as mature workers, Gen Xers will with tales of wealthy celebrities, middle- Xers will defl ect a generational identity, want to be free agents – negotiating aged workers will generally be seen as thinking of themselves as not Boom- their own deals, seeking incentives rang- modest-wage job hoppers who retain ers and not Millennials rather than as ing from commissions to options, and the fl exibility to change life directions Generation X. switching employers at a moment’s in a snap. Throughout the economy Having had so many choices and notice. Some of them will be running they will be doing the jobs that others taken so many risks in their youth, they large corporations as hired guns. Oth- don’t want to do. will feel like Generation Exhausted. ers, after years of gigs and assignments, In the community and politics. Gen For their Silent parents, a midlife crisis will at last realize they will never have Xers in midlife will set about fortifying meant breaking out of early confor- a “career.” their social environment. As many of mity and taking more risks with mar- Top Xer managers will excel at mak- them confront fi nancial diffi culties, they riage and career. But Xers entering ing quick decisions, streamlining the will take pride in their ability to “have midlife will veer in the opposite direc- middle ranks, and downsizing bureau- a life” and to wall off their families from tion, searching for greater security in cracy. Top Xer executives, now key economic turmoil. Their divorce rate their families and jobs and for a steady players in decentralized fl at organiza- will be well below that of Boomers and anchor in their communities. tions, will take creative risks and exploit Silents at the same age. They will be Many will continue to flock to Survivor-style self-testing and Texas Hold ’Em–style risk-taking, but such Mature Gen X entrepreneurs will probe every corner of the pursuits will seem less fresh to other marketplace in search of unrealized gain, as they did in their generations, and even to Gen Xers them- selves. The high-stakes gambles many youth. Companies will be created, dissolved, or reorganized of them took with their stray cash as overnight. young adults (in lotteries, casinos, stock options, and derivative markets) will increasingly be stigmatized in the eyes opportunities on their own. As consum- extremely protective of their offspring; of younger people. As the Gen X pop ers and parents on the demand side and large numbers will spend hard-earned culture elite loses infl uence, celebrities entrepreneurs and CEOs on the supply money and may relocate to ensure the who persist in its ways will be chastised side, Xers will seek new ways of remov- quality of their children’s schools and by wholesome Millennial youths. ing professional middlemen (lawyers, the safety of their daily lives. As their As they fi ll the ranks of midlife con- accountants, brokers, advisers) from children reach college age, Gen Xers sumers, Gen Xers will continue to evalu- business transactions. Those along the will apply to every facet of higher edu- ate products in terms of their effi ciency, chain who don’t add essential value cation the same no-child-left-behind at- convenience, and mass customization. may be squeezed out. Sectors that are titude they applied to K–12 education. Houses, cars, and computers will be currently sheltered from market forces – Their aversion to large-scale institu- produced for and advertised to indi- such as agriculture, health care, educa- tional politics may gradually subside vidual consumers. Older generations tion, and public works – may fi nd their as Gen Xers enter midlife. In every will look back wistfully to a time when long-held positions under attack. age bracket they have entered thus far, products (and jobs) came in standard Mature Gen X entrepreneurs will voter participation rates have fallen to shapes and sizes. probe every corner of the marketplace historical lows. This has given their gen- In the workplace and the economy. in search of unrealized gain, as they eration a libertarian fl avor – they are In a Gen X–dominated economy there did in their youth. Companies will be more oriented toward ownership and will be no shelter from the gale winds created, dissolved, or reorganized over- personal connections and less likely to of the open marketplace. The results night. But in personal fi nances this gen- trust bureaucracies. They have far less will be both positive and negative, for eration will fare even worse than Boom- representation in Congress or as state this generation and for others. ers did in the 1990s. Many Gen Xers will governors than any prior U.S. genera- As business leaders, Gen Xers will fi nd their incomes disappointing, their tion at the same age. be more effective at pushing effi ciency fringe benefi ts pared down, and their This could change, however – not, and innovation than any other genera- public safety nets fraying. A few will be perhaps, in the number who vote or run tion in memory. Their market orienta- wildly successful; a larger number will for public offi ce but in the importance tion, which has already produced re- be poor or near poor; most will be do- of leaders who do step forward. History markable productivity gains, will reach ing all right but losing ground. While contains several examples of a nomad maximum impact as they enter midlife. the media (as ever) will be saturated generation that rapidly rises to power

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and displaces an older generation ligion Millennials will favor friendly rit- in many urban areas, while entry-level of prophets. These have resulted less uals and community building over per- pay in most occupations remains un- from patient party politics than from sonal spirituality. Even in their thirties changed. The vagaries of a globalizing the sudden emergence of a charismatic they will remain much closer to their labor market and jobs without benefi ts individual. Such leaders will bring an parents (living nearer to them and rely- or security will come as a shock to mem- idiosyncratic style to public life. Barack ing more on their advice) than Boom- bers of this sheltered generation, many Obama (born 1961) is waging an explic- ers and Gen Xers were at the same age. of whom expected that all their careful itly anti-Boomer campaign that will set Companies that today “comarket” their preparation would guarantee them a the tone for future Gen X forays into products to teens and their parents will comfortable future. A wedge will sepa- leadership on the national level. now broaden their efforts to reach the rate those whose families can help them Gen X political leaders will seek entire extended family. start out in life from those whose fami- pragmatic, no-nonsense solutions and Millennials will gravitate toward big lies cannot. Most of the latter will fi nd will argue far less than Boomers ever brands. Likewise, their pop culture will it diffi cult to begin careers in public ser- did. Having grown up in a time when be bland, mainstream, and friendly vice, teaching, or the arts. The issues of walls were being torn down, families (while seeming derivative to older gen- economic class and privilege will loom dissolved, and loyalties discarded, they erations). Young fi lm stars will be linked large for young Millennial workers – will focus on reconstructing the social with positive themes, will display more partially displacing the concerns about frameworks that produce civic order. modesty in sex and language, and will gender, race, and ethnicity that preoccu- They will waste no time on the obvi- bring new civic purpose to screen vio- pied young Boomer and Xer workers. ously insoluble and won’t fuss over the lence. As in Disney’s High School Mu- Millennials will be more confi dent, merely annoying. To them, the outcome sical, stories and songs will be upbeat trusting, and teachable in the work- will matter more than the method, and team-oriented but lacking in depth. place than their Boomer and Gen X money, or rhetoric used to get there. Sports players will be more coachable, colleagues. They will also be viewed more loyal to teams and fans, and less as more pampered, risk averse, and de- The Young Adulthood of inclined toward taunting. Celebrities pendent. Many employers are already Millennials will win praise as good role models. complaining about their need for con- Millennials will prove false the assump- Millennials will carve out fresh con- stant feedback and their weakness in tion (prompted by the experience of cepts of public cyberspace and use in- basic job skills such as punctuality and Boomers and Xers) that each genera- formation to empower groups rather proper dress – though most employers tion of young adults is more alienated than individuals. As the fi rst generation who manage large numbers of them and risk prone than the one before. to grow up with mobile digital technol- agree that they can perform superbly Many Millennials will want to correct ogy, Millennials expect nonstop inter- when given clear goals and allowed to for the impracticality of Boomers and action with their peers in forms that work in groups. Millennials will have the indiscipline of Gen Xers. Many el- ders will be pleased with how these young people are doing, while others If Boomer- and Xer-led businesses adjust to the Millennial may misinterpret their confi dence as work style, economic productivity could surge even as self-centeredness. As they move through their twenties, Millennials will already job turnover declines. If they do not, they should brace be accustomed to meeting and beating for opposition. adult expectations. They will revive the ideal of the common man, whose virtue is defi ned less by self than by a collegial would have been unimaginable to prior more of a knack for cooperation and or- center of gravity. generations of young adults. They will ganization than for out-of-the-box ini- Millennials will develop community develop new standards for social net- tiative. They will tend to treat cowork- norms based on rules, standards, and working, identifying a clear range of ac- ers as partners rather than rivals. personal responsibility; every arena ceptable online attitudes and behaviors. Businesses will respond to the surge will become more mannerly, structured, In the workplace and the economy. of Millennials in the workplace by build- and civic-minded. In college they will Millennials will face tough challenges ing a more ordered work environment lean less toward countercultural dissent as they enter the workplace. They are with clearer lines of authority and su- and more toward the “rah-rah” aspect of saddled with far larger student loans pervision and a greater number of team campus life; school colors will become (in real dollars) than any earlier gener- projects. Nonmonetary benefi ts will in- an important badge of belonging. In re- ation. Housing costs have skyrocketed crease as young workers put a higher

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11284284 Howe.inddHowe.indd 5050 66/7/07/7/07 99:08:13:08:13 AMAM they witnessed as children. When they encounter leaders who cling to those old ways, they will work to defeat them. Their stand on the issues is likely to cut across conventional labels. In their will- ingness to use government aggressively to protect the community, strengthen the middle class, and reduce economic risk, they will seem liberal. Yet in their conventional life goals, respect for rules, and patriotism, they will seem conservative. Just as the political agenda of the 1990s centered on children, the political agenda of the 2010s and 2020s will cen- ter on young adults. With the allegiance of youth more readily available to poli- ticians, younger voters may power a na- tional party to victory for the fi rst time since the 1930s. Some elders will fear the rise of a generation they perceive as capable but naive, more interested in large-scale public action than in per- sonal privacy or liberty. premium on job security; employers personal, social, and economic interde- will fi nd it easier to cultivate loyalty in pendence with their parents than prior The Childhood of Homelanders a generation with unusually long time generations had. And they will seek to As parents, as legislators, and as me- horizons. As they seek balance between create stable and long-lasting families as dia producers, Gen Xers will substan- their work lives and their private lives, they begin having their own children. tially shape the Homeland Genera- Millennials will try to get their careers Millennials will use their digital em- tion. Already gaining a reputation as off to a “perfect” start. Many will decide powerment to build and maintain close extremely protective parents, these Xer against the high-risk paths to advance- peer bonds. New parents will create on- stay-at-home dads and security moms ment (on which years of hard work can line support groups and cover personal will want to protect their children from go unrewarded) frequently offered by Web pages with pictures of their chil- the Dazed and Confused childhood they corporate and professional employers. dren. Virtual communities will serve the themselves experienced during the con- If Boomer- and Xer-led businesses needs of young adults, from fi nding jobs sciousness revolution. The rules created adjust to the Millennial work style, eco- to buying houses to babysitting to pur- for Millennials, no longer controver- nomic productivity could surge even suing hobbies. First-wave Millennials sial, will become customary. Home- as job turnover declines. If they do not, already depend on online communities landers will be tracked by mobile digital they should brace for opposition. If such as Craigslist and Freecycle to help technology, screened by psychological young workers perceive that they are them set up their lives after college. software, and surveilled by entertain- being treated unfairly, they will demon- As more of them reach voting age, ment controls that limit their access to strate their talent for organizing – and Millennials will become a political anything inappropriate. Older Ameri- may even revitalize the union move- powerhouse. They will see politics as cans will regard them as well-behaved ment. Unlike young Gen Xers, who typi- a tool for turning collegial purpose and diligent – yet also as innocent, risk cally quit and move on when they have into civic progress. Young adult voters averse, and emotionally fragile. a workplace problem, Millennials are will confound the pundits with huge used to staying put and waiting until turnouts, massing to support favored The Cycle Continues someone in charge solves the problem. candidates – especially elders who can If you are a marketer planning the next In the community and politics. Mil- translate spiritual resolve into public generation of consumer products or lennials’ close family relationships will authority. They will reject what they services, or an architect thinking about continue as they move into young adult- perceive as the negativism, moralism, the design of buildings that will serve hood. They will have a much tighter and selfi shness of the national politics workers for decades, or a manager in

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any area of business that must fore- about improving teen behavior began risk and sacrifi ce. Generation X will see changing attitudes in the broader to appear. transform midlife as practical prob- population, the availability of a strong Today, as ever, forecasters make the lem solvers. Gen X traits criticized for predictive model is tremendously im- faulty assumption that the future will decades – survivalism, pragmatism, re- portant. Can you be confi dent that be a straight-line extrapolation from alism – will be recognized as vital na- the coming decades will produce the the recent past. They predict that the tional resources. Millennials will trans- changes we’ve described? Is the gen- next set of people in each phase of form young adulthood as America’s erational perspective the right one to life will behave like a more extreme new junior citizens, deeply engaged in support long-term decision making? version of the current set. In truth, so- civic life. They will revitalize commu- With every passing year we be- cial change is nonlinear – but it is not nity and public purpose, fi lling the role come more confi dent that it is. In the chaotic. An understanding of genera- being vacated by senior-citizen GIs. late 1980s, when we formulated our tional archetypes allows us to predict History suggests that with the gen- theory, fi rst-wave Millennials were much about the decades ahead. erations so aligned, the risk of a major still very young children, and crime, Over the next 20 years each of today’s crisis (whether geopolitical, military, teen pregnancy, and substance abuse generations will enter its next phase of economic, or environmental) will be had reached alarming levels among life. In doing so, each will transform great – but so, too, will be the opportu- Gen Xers. Experts in teen behavior that phase in ways that echo through nity to fi x national or even global prob- were predicting a continued rise in our history. This is how history repeats lems that today seem beyond solution. negative behaviors as the Millennials and society progresses. Each new young In business as in government, family entered their teen years. But, look- generation fi lls a role being vacated by life, and other areas, the people who ing back at the youthful behavior of an older generation, a role that now succeed in navigating this future will earlier hero generations with similar feels fresh, functional, desirable, and be those who understand how history locations in history (such as the GIs), even necessary for society’s well-being. creates generations, and generations we predicted declines in those behav- Boomers will transform old age as create history. iors across the board. Sure enough, in champions of values. They will urge 2000, when the fi rst Millennials grad- the nation to act decisively on those Reprint R0707B uated from high school, news stories values – even if doing so requires civic To order, see page 195. Kim Warp Kim

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