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The Road to Royal Ascot 2019

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The Road to Royal Ascot 2019 THE ROAD TO ROYAL ASCOT 2019 50 important race trials for Royal Ascot (June 2019) © 2019 Gavin Priestley RACE INDEX 1.GREENHAM STAKES – Newbury 2.SPRING CUP – Newbury 3.FEILDEN STAKES – Newmarket (April 16th) 4.NELL GWYN – Newmarket (April 17th) 5.ABERNANT STAKES – Newmarket (April 18th) 6.GORDON RICHARDS – Sandown 7.SAGARO STAKES – Ascot 8.PALACE HOUSE STAKES – Newmarket 9.NEWMARKET STAKES – Newmarket 10.JOCKEY CLUB STAKES – Newmarket 11.2000 GUINEAS – Newmarket 12.DAHLIA STAKES – Newmarket 13.1000 GUINEAS – Newmarket 14.PRETTY POLLY STAKES – Newmarket 15.QATAR 3YO HANDICAP (Class 3) – Newmarket 16.HUXLEY STAKES – Chester 17.CHESTER VASE – Chester 18.ORMONDE STAKES – Chester 19.OAKS TRIAL – Lingfield 20.DERBY TRIAL – Lingfield 21.VICTORIA CUP – Ascot 22.BUCKHOUNDS STAKES – Ascot 23.DUKE OF YORK STAKES – York 24.YORKSHIRE CUP – York 25.CLASS 3 (0-95 ) 7F HANDICAP- York 26.KING CHARLES II STAKES – Newmarket 27.LONDON GOLD CUP HANDICAP – Newbury 28.THE LOCKINGE – Newbury 29.COCKED HAT – Goodwood 30.FESTIVAL STAKES – Goodwood 31.CLASS 2 HANDICAP – Goodwood 32.SILVER BOWL HANDICAP – Haydock 33.TEMPLE STAKES – Haydock 34.Prix D'ISPAHAN - Chantilly 35.FAIRWAY STAKES – Newmarket 36.MARBLE HILL STAKES – The Curragh 37.IRISH 1000 GUINEAS – The Curragh 38.IRISH 2000 GUINEAS – The Curragh 39.MILE HANDICAP – Sandown 40.HENRY II STAKES – Sandown 41.NATIONAL STAKES – Sandown 42.BRIGADIER GERARD – Sandown 43.SANDY LANE – Haydock 44.2YO TROPHY – Beverley 45.ZETLAND GOLD CUP – Redcar 46.SAVAL BEG STAKES – Leopardstown 47.THE DERBY – Epsom 48.CORONATION CUP – Epsom 49.WOODCOTE STAKES – Epsom 50.SILVER STAKES – Curragh RACE 1: FIELDEN STAKES – NEWMARKET TUESDAY 16TH APRIL – 1M1F (3yo only) RESULTS: 2006 – 2017 YEAR FORM WINNER FLAT RUNS ODDS TRAINER AGE WEIGHT RATING 2018 11313- Mildenberger 5 11/4 Johnston, M 3 9-00 107 2017 3411-3 Khalidi 5 7/2 Gosden J H M 3 9-0 95 2016 3110- Ventura Storm 4 15/8F Hannon, R Jnr 3 9-0 100 2015 1- Golden Horn 1 2/1 Gosden, J H M 3 9-0 90 2014 21- True Story 2 5/2 Suroor, S. Bin 3 9-0 100 2013 11- Intello (GER) 2 6/4 Fabre, A 3 8-13 0 2012 143- Stipulate 3 8/1 Cecil, H R A 3 8-13 91 2011 13- Dordogne (IRE) 2 7/2 Johnston, M 3 8-13 95 2010 1- Rumoush (USA) 1 7/2 Tregoning, M P 3 8-8 0 2009 1- Redwood 1 11/4 Hills, B W 3 8-13 88 2008 1410-1 Campanologist (USA) 5 9/2 Johnston, M 3 8-13 95 2007 010- Petara Bay (IRE) 3 4/1 Mills, T G 3 8-13 91 2006 15- Atlantic Waves (IRE) 2 3/1 Johnston, M 3 8-13 96 TRENDS: • All 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter • All 11 winners with an official rating were rated 88+ • 12 of the last 13 winners had won one of their last 2 runs • 11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out (exceptions beaten in a Group 1) • 9 of the last 13 winners had run 1-3 times as a 2yo (12/13 had run 1-4 times) • 11 of the 13 winners were making their seasonal debut • 8 of the 13 winners raced outside of Pattern company last time out. TOP 5 TRAINERS: Runs/Wins/Places/Profit-Loss M. CHANNON 3 0 0 -4.00 B. MEEHAN 4 0 1 -4.00 R. HANNON 12 1 4 -9.12 M. JOHNSTON 9 4 1 +8.75 J. GOSDEN 6 2 0 +1.50 RACE AS A POINTER TO ROYAL ASCOT Quite a few different Royal Ascot race winners have come out of the Feilden Stakes but it seems to be the Tercentenary Stakes that is the most obvious target for the runners going on to the big June meeting.... 2018 winner Mildenberger wasn't seen out after finishing runner up in the Dante on his next start but the beaten favourite Kew Gardens, who finished third here, won the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot at 100/30. Arbalet finished second last here but ran 5th in the Jersey Stakes at 100/1. The 2017 winner Khalidi was runner up in the King Edward VII Stakes at 10/1. In 2016 all 4 runners in the race swerved the Royal meeting. The 2015 winner went on to take the Derby but the runner up Peacock, third California Disegno and 6th Mustadeem all went to Royal Ascot for the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes where they finished 2nd, 4th and 3rd respectively. The 2012 winner Stipulate was runner up in that years Tercentenary Stakes, runner up Mister Music went on to finish second in the Britannia Handicap at 50/1 and third home Producer was 5th in the Jersey Stakes. The 2011 4th Specific Gravity was 4th in that Season's Tercentenary Stakes at 50/1. The favourite Timepiece could only manage 4th in 2010 but went on to win the mile fillies handicap at Royal Ascot later that year. The 7th that year Gallic Star was a decent third in the Ribblesdale at 16/1. The experienced 2008 winner Campanoligist went on to win that Season's King Edward VII Stakes at 9/1. In 2007 the fourth home Al Shemali ran second in that years Listed 10f Hampton Court Stakes (now Tercentenary Stakes). RACE 2: NELL GWYN STAKES – NEWMARKET WEDNESDAY 17TH APRIL – 7F (3yo Fillies only) RESULTS: 2006 – 2017 YEAR FORM WINNER FLAT RUNS ODDS TRAINER AGE WEIGHT RATING 2018 21- Soliloquy 2 4/1 Appleby, C 3 9-0 0 2017 1- Daban 1 12/1 Gosden, J 3 9-0 81 2016 112- Nathra 3 5/4f Gosden, J 3 9-0 110 2015 11513- Osaila (IRE) 7 4/1 Hannon (Jnr), R 3 9-0 109 2014 11217- Sandiva (IRE) 5 7/2 Fahey, R A 3 9-0 109 2013 1- Hot Snap 1 10/1 Cecil, H R A 3 8-12 78 2012 3213-3 Esentepe (IRE) 10 28/1 Hannon, R 3 8-12 92 2011 1132- Barefoot Lady (IRE) 4 14/1 Fahey, R A 3 8-12 97 2010 1101- Music Show (IRE) 4 6/1 Channon, M R 3 9-1 110 2009 112- Fantasia 3 4/5 Cumani, L M 3 8-12 113 2008 1- Infallible 1 7/2 Gosden, J H M 3 8-12 0 2007 3158 Scarlet Runner 6 15/2 Dunlop, J L 3 8-12 110 2006 21- Speciosa (IRE) 6 9/1 Sly, Mrs P 3 9-1 109 TRENDS: • All of the last 13 winners had their last run in a non-handicap • All of the last 13 winners had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts • 12 of the last 13 winners had been off the track for 5 months or longer • 9 of the last 13 winners had raced 3 or more times (2 exceptions trained by John Gosden) • 11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out • 8 of the 11 winners with an official rating were rated 97+ • 7 of the last 13 winners had their last run in a Pattern race. • 6 of the last 13 winners (plus 11 places) had their last race at Newmarket (Rowley course) TOP 5 TRAINERS: Runs/Wins/Places/Profit-Loss M. CHANNON 10 1 1 -3.00 J. GOSDEN 10 3 1 +9.75 R. HANNON 8 2 1 +26.00 Sir M. STOUTE 5 0 0 -5.00 R. FAHEY 4 2 1 +15.50 RACE AS A POINTER TO ROYAL ASCOT While the Nell Gwyn isn't a great trial for the 1000 Guineas it has proved an extremely reliable pointer towards Royal Ascot with both the Coronation Stakes and Mile Fillies Handicap being targeted very successfully over the last decade... The 2018 4th home Billesdon Brook won the 1000 Guineas on her next start but could only finish 4th in that years Coronation Stakes. Threading ran 7th and 2nd in the same two races. The beaten favourite in 2017 Roly Poly could only manage 7th here but went on to finish second in that years Coronation Stakes at 12/1. Nathra won a poor Nell Gwyn renewal in 2016 and, although well fancied, could only manage 9th in that years Coronation Stakes. The 2015 winner Osaila went on to win the mile handicap for 3yo fillies at that Season's Royal Ascot at 13/2. In 2014 Sandiva beat Euro Charline but when they re-opposed in that years Group 1 Coronation Stakes Sandiva could only manage 5th but Euro Charline was 3rd at 16/1. The fifth home Queen Catrine was runner up in the 3yo fillies mile handicap at 14/1. The 2013 runner up Sky Lantern won that Season's Coronation Stakes at 9/2 while the last home Nargys went on to run 4th in the fillies mile handicap at 20/1. The 4th home in 2012 Starscope ran second in that years Coronation Stakes while the 2011 winner Barefoot Lady ran 3rd in the Coronation Stakes. The 2010 was a particularly strong renewal with winner Music Show managing 4th in the Coronation Stakes which was the same position the third home Principal Role managed in the Ribblesdale while runner up Blue Maiden also ran second in the Mile Fillies Handicap one place in front of Safina who had been 4th here at Newmarket. The 7th home Jacqueline Quest won the 1000 Guineas but was subsequently disqualified but went on to finish third in the Coronation Stakes.
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