Credit Suisse Equity Research Americas/United States Fortive (FTV) Organic recovery and M&A should drive a re- rating; Upgrade to Outperform January 13, 2017 US EE/MI RESEARCH TEAM Julian Mitchell Ronnie Weiss Research Analyst Associate Analyst +1 212 325 6668 +1 212 538 6404
[email protected] [email protected] Lee Sandquist Jason Makishi Associate Analyst Associate Analyst +1 212 325 2245 +1 212 538 8125
[email protected] [email protected] DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. FTV: Upgrade to Outperform We upgrade FTV to Outperform from Neutral and increase our TP to $60 from $54. We think the recent underperformance in the stock has created an attractive entry point. Fortive represents an underappreciated way of playing a short-cycle industrial recovery as well as potential benefits from the incoming Administration. We see M&A activity picking up materially this year, which should act as a meaningful catalyst for the shares. EMV push-out: In December 2016, the liability shift for US outdoor payment systems at gas stations moved from October 2017 to October 2020, which has weighed on FTV’s share price, given that its Transportation business is viewed as a key growth lever (FTV had previously guided that this upgrade cycle could add ~1% to annual organic sales growth for a few years).