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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: July 2020

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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: July 2020 Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report SSS-M-383 | July 16, 2020 Next release is August 18, 2020 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook In this report: U.S. Sugar Outlook Michael McConnell, coordinator Mexico Sugar Outlook U.S. Sugar Production Raised for 2020/21 Due to Harvested Area Forecasts Both the U.S. sugarcane and sugarbeet crops are forecast to increase harvested area in 2020/21, raising U.S. sugar production projections. Higher estimated imports for 2019/20 result in higher carryout, also boosting 2020/21 supplies. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2019/20 is estimated to be 14.5 percent and 13.5 percent for 2020/21. Mexico sugar production estimates are raised for 2019/20, increasing exports to the United States. Lower forecasted domestic deliveries in both 2019/20 and 2020/21 allow for more domestic supplies to be exported, with most of the increase in 2020/21 expected to go to non-U.S. destinations. Sugarbeet planted and harvested area, 2010/11 to 2020/21 1,000 acres 1,400 Planted area Harvested area 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Note: 2020/21 data are forecasts. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board United States Outlook Increased Acreage Raises Sugar Production for 2020/21 In the USDA’s July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), U.S. total supplies of sugar in 2020/21 totaled 13.921 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a 187,000- STRV increase from the June forecast. The increase is due to higher beginning stocks and domestic production, which were slightly offset by lower imports. Table 1: U.S. sugar: Supply and use by fiscal year (Oct./Sept.), July 2020 Items 2019/20 2020/21 2019/20 2020/21 2018/19 (estimate) (forecast) 2018/19 (estimate) (forecast) 1,000 Short tons, raw value 1,000 Metric tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2,008 1,783 1,772 1,822 1,617 1,608 Total production 8,999 8,002 9,090 8,163 7,259 8,246 Beet sugar 4,939 4,256 5,000 4,480 3,861 4,536 Cane sugar 4,060 3,746 4,090 3,683 3,398 3,710 Florida 2,005 2,106 2,105 1,819 1,910 1,910 Louisiana 1,907 1,513 1,850 1,730 1,372 1,678 Texas 147 127 135 134 115 122 Hawaii 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total imports 3,070 4,178 3,059 2,785 3,790 2,775 Tariff-rate quota imports 1,541 2,203 1,580 1,398 1,998 1,433 Other program imports 438 350 350 397 318 318 Non-program imports 1,092 1,625 1,129 990 1,474 1,024 Mexico 1,000 1,395 1,079 908 1,265 979 High-duty 91 230 50 83 209 45 Total supply 14,076.75 13,962 13,921 12,770 12,666 12,629 Total exports 35 35 35 31 32 32 Miscellaneous 28 0 0 26 0 0 Deliveries for domestic use 12,231 12,155 12,230 11,096 11,027 11,095 Transfer to sugar-containing products for exports under re-export program 98 80 80 89 73 73 Transfer to polyhydric alcohol, feed, other alcohol 27 25 25 25 23 23 Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) sale for ethanol, other 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use 12,106 12,050 12,125 10,982 10,932 11,000 Total use 12,294 12,190 12,265 11,153 11,059 11,127 Ending stocks 1,783 1,772 1,656 1,617 1,608 1,502 P rivat e 1,783 1,772 1,656 1,617 1,608 1,502 Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stocks-to-use ratio 14.50 14.54 13.50 14.50 14.54 13.50 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook. Domestic production in 2019/20 is reduced 29,000 STRV—to 4.256 million STRV---based on processors’ reporting lower sucrose extraction rates from the sugarbeet slicing campaign through May. 2 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-383, July 16, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Table 2: Beet sugar production projection calculation, 2019/20 and 2020/21 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21 June July June July Sugarbeet production (1,000 short tons) 1/ 35,371 36,881 35,325 33,282 28,600 28,600 33,671 33,929 Sugarbeet shrink 6.5% 8.3% 7.3% 5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 6.6% 6.6% Sugarbeet sliced (1,000 short tons) 33,066 33,834 32,742 31,561 26,984 26,984 31,454 31,696 Sugar extraction rate from slice 14.58% 13.72% 15.18% 14.77% 14.31% 14.20% 14.51% 14.51% Sugar from beets slice (1,000 STRV) 2/ 4,820 4,643 4,970 4,660 3,861 3,832 4,564 4,599 Sugar from molasses (1,000 STRV) 2/ 380 352 368 352 337 337 360 360 Crop-year sugar production (1,000 STRV) 2/ 5,201 4,995 5,338 5,012 4,198 4,169 4,924 4,959 August-September sugar production (1,000 STRV) 688 606 715 655 582 582 633 633 August-September sugar production of subsequent crop (1,000 STRV) 606 715 655 582 633 633 638 638 Sugar from imported beets (1,000 STRV) 3/ -- -- -- -- 36 36 36 36 Fiscal year sugar production (1,000 STRV) 5,119 5,103 5,279 4,939 4,285 4,256 4,965 5,000 1/ USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service for historical data. 2/ August-July basis. 3/ Sugar from imported beets split out for projections only, included in total once full crop- year slice is recorded. Sugar from imported beets is incorporated into total production in historical data. Note: STRV = short tons, raw value. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board. On June 30, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its first forecast of harvested area for both the 2020/21 sugarcane and sugarbeet crop in its Acreage report. The report showed that U.S. growers planted 1.148 million acres of sugarbeets this spring, about planted 9,000 more acres than they intended in the March Prospective Plantings report. This was led by additional planted acres in Minnesota (5,000 additional acres), Michigan (4,000 acres), and Nebraska (2,300 acres). The increase was partially due to the delayed planting, which is likely to reduce expected sugarbeet yields from what was expected in March and April. These increases were offset by reductions in planted area from the March intentions in Colorado (700 fewer acres), Wyoming (500 acres), and Washington (200 acres). Planted area for 2020/21 is 1.4 percent higher than the previous year’s crop. Table 3: Sugarbeet planted area, 2016/17 to 2020/21 State 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Annual Change (estimate) 1,000 acres Percent Minnesota 437.0 420.0 415.0 424.0 432.0 1.9 North Dakota 213.0 214.0 202.0 212.0 214.0 0.9 Idaho 172.0 167.0 163.0 171.0 168.0 -1.8 Michigan 151.0 144.0 150.0 146.0 154.0 5.5 Nebraska 48.0 46.1 45.5 44.0 46.3 5.2 Montana 45.6 42.9 43.5 41.8 42.8 2.4 Wyoming 30.7 32.1 32.1 31.6 31.0 -1.9 Colorado 28.1 29.4 26.3 25.1 24.5 -2.4 California 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.4 -0.4 Oregon 10.7 9.1 9.3 10.0 9.1 -9.0 Washington 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 -10.0 U.S. Total 1,163.4 1,131.4 1,113.1 1,132.0 1,147.9 1.4 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. NASS also forecast that the 2020/21 sugarbeet harvest will cover 1.127 million acres. This would represent a 15.1-percent increase from the previous year, as 2019/20 was marked with record amounts of unharvested area due to poor weather conditions. The 2020/21 forecast implies that unharvested area will return to levels consistent with historical averages. 3 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-383, July 16, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Table 4: Sugarbeet harvested area, 2016/17 to 2020/21 State 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Annual Change 1,000 acres Percent Minnesota 417.0 409.0 408.0 336.0 420.0 25.0 North Dakota 203.0 212.0 199.0 170.0 211.0 24.1 Idaho 170.0 166.0 163.0 165.0 166.0 0.6 Michigan 149.0 143.0 148.0 145.0 152.0 4.8 Nebraska 47.2 45.2 44.1 42.1 45.8 8.8 Montana 45.3 42.7 42.4 36.5 42.6 16.7 Wyoming 30.0 31.6 30.7 24.0 30.2 25.8 Colorado 27.6 29.0 25.5 24.4 24.0 -1.6 Oregon 10.2 9.1 9.3 9.8 9.0 -8.2 Washington 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 -10.0 U.S.
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