TThhee CCoommpprreehheennssiivvee PPllaann BBaacckkggrroouunndd SSttuuddiieess ffoorr tthhee MMuunnccyy CCrreeeekk PPllaannnniinngg AArreeaa Hughesville Borough, Muncy Borough, Muncy Creek Township, Picture Rocks Borough, Shrewsbury Township, Wolf Township Lycoming County, PA Technical Background Studies No. 1 – Community Development Profile Introduction The development of an effective comprehensive plan requires an understanding of the issues and trends that impact a community’s ability to sustain a “good quality of life” for its residents. During the early stages of plan development, coordination has been undertaken with many individuals and organizations in order to develop an understanding of what are perceived to be important issues that will impact the community and its development and growth in the future. This Community Development Profile summarizes where the community has been, where it is today, and where it may be going in the future based on known data sources. It includes past trend information (historic), current trend information (today), and projections (future), where appropriate and available from existing data sources. Key Community Development Issues Through consultation with the Planning Advisory Team (PAT) and interviews with key persons within the planning area and throughout the county, the important issues that could potentially impact the community in terms of social and economic conditions were identified. Issues of importance that relate to the county or region are shown in the adjacent highlight box. Input from the Muncy Creek Planning Advisory Team reflected the rural nature of the area. The overriding important social issue identified by the Planning Advisory Team was the “Small town character of the close knit communities where you know the people.” Thus, one would expect the following issues to be of particular interest in this planning area. Exodus of Younger Generation with Increasing Elderly Population – This is a concern because as an area ages the social fabric of the community becomes less stable. Less and less younger workers, who generate a greater proportion of the tax base required to support necessary community services required by older individuals, can create the potential for budget deficits and adversely impact the provision of community services to all individuals. Low Wages and Income – can adversely impact on the stability of the younger worker population and generation of tax revenues to support community service needs. Lack of Employment Opportunities and Lower Paying Jobs – This is a concern because employment is generally the key factor that dictates where younger workers will make their home. Low Migration Rates – was viewed as an important aspect of a stable, close knit community. Affordable Housing – was viewed as positive aspect of the area for maintaining a stable community. Decreasing Housing Stock and Diversity – This is a concern due to the increasing elderly population needing affordable choices to go with a changing lifestyle. It is also important to younger families with limited budgets. Diverse Economy – was viewed as a real asset to the future of Lycoming County and the maintenance of stable communities. Muncy Creek Planning Area 1 Final Draft – February 2003 Technical Background Studies No. 1 – Community Development Profile Good Labor Force – was viewed as important to business development and expansion in the area. Storefront vacancies – that can create a bad image for promoting economic development in the business districts of the boroughs. Increasing Crime and Drug Use – were noted as social service concerns as well as a community image concern for business development. Evaluation Approach Existing data sources were accessed as fully as possible to identify trends as they relate to the important issues. Where available and appropriate, comparisons were made for the time periods from 1980 to the present (circa 2000) as well as for projections into the future (2020). Key data sources include but are not limited to: • U.S. Census • U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics • The Pathfinders, The Williamsport / Lycoming County, Pennsylvania Area Workforce Report (July 2002) • The Center for Rural Pennsylvania • Industrial Properties Corporation • Williamsport / Lycoming Chamber of Commerce • Department of Community and Economic Development • Department of Health • Lycoming County Comprehensive Plan (1997) Comparisons are drawn between national, state, regional and local trends where available and appropriate. During the evaluation process, the planning team attempted to address the following: • Does the trend information support the local perceptions about key important issues? • If it does not support the perception why not and what are the implications to planning? • Is there data and information available to evaluate the key important issues? • If the data is not available what are the implications to planning? • Are there any important trends that do not relate to those issues perceived as being important by local stakeholders (i.e. PAT, key person interviews)? • If so, are there any indications of why they may not have been recognized as important? Muncy Creek Planning Area 2 Final Draft – February 2003 Technical Background Studies No. 1 – Community Development Profile The evaluation of background data for this Community Development Profile is divided into four sections: • Demographic Characteristics Population Change Age issues Family issues Cultural issues Income issues • Housing Characteristics Units Values Affordability Diversity • Economic Characteristics Economic diversity Work force issues Financing issues Wages Employment Important Economic Generators Retail & Services diversity issues Taxes Taxes • Human Services Characteristics Elderly Students Public Safety Health and Human Services Educational Attainment Muncy Creek Planning Area 3 Final Draft – February 2003 Technical Background Studies No. 1 – Community Development Profile Demographic Characteristics Overview of Demographics Table 1 -1 provides a comparative analysis of the historic population trends for the Muncy Creek Joint Planning Area, Lycoming County and Pennsylvania. The municipal population trends during the 1970 to 2000 Census period are indicative of the countywide trends whereby populations migrated out of the boroughs and into the rural/suburban townships. Picture Rocks Borough, however, withstood this trend and increased its total population by 123 persons or by 21.6 percent. The Muncy Creek Planning Area municipal population gains over the 1970 to 2000 Census period exceeded the county and state’s population growth rates of 6.0 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. This trend shows that the majority of the municipal population increases are attributed to the internal shifts of the county’s total population. It is important to note that from 1990 to 2000, Hughesville Borough opposed the countywide population shift trend. During this period, the borough’s population increased by 171, or by 8.3 percent, to 2,220. This trend is in part attributed to the borough’s strategic location along U.S. 220 and proximity to the county’s economic center—the City of Williamsport. Table 1-1 Population Change 1970-2000 Total Population Population Change Municipality 1970 1980 1990 2000 1990-2000 1970-2000 Number Percent Number Percent Pennsylvania 11,800,766 11,863,895 11,881,643 12,281,054 399,411 3.4% 480,288 4.1% Lycoming County 113,296 118,416 118,710 120,044 1,334 1.1% 6,748 6.0% Muncy Creek Planning Area 10,043 11,522 11,831 12,203 372 3.1% 2,160 21.5% Hughesville Borough 2,249 2,172 2,049 2,220 171 8.3% -29 -1.3% Muncy Borough 2,872 2,700 2,702 2,663 -39 -1.4% -209 -7.3% Muncy Creek Township 2,473 3,427 3,401 3,487 86 2.5% 1,014 41.0% Picture Rocks Borough 570 617 660 693 33 5.0% 123 21.6% Shrewsbury Township 406 442 402 433 31 7.7% 27 6.7% Wolf Township 1,473 2,164 2,617 2,707 90 3.4% 1,234 83.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Muncy Creek Planning Area 4 Final Draft – February 2003 Technical Background Studies No. 1 – Community Development Profile Figure 1 - 1 Comparative Population Ananlysis, 1970-2000 4,000 Hughesville Borough 3,000 Muncy Borough Muncy Creek Tow nship 2,000 Picture Rocks Borough 1,000 Shrew sbury Tow nship Total Population 0 Wolf Tow nship 1970 1980 1990 2000 Decennial Census Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau What follows is a presentation of data defining demographic trends as related to key issues identified by the Planning Advisory Teams. Issue- Exodus of Younger Generation with Increasing Elderly Population An analysis of the Muncy Creek Planning Area’s population by its various age groups provides insight to the perceptions that the planning area municipalities are experiencing a decrease in the number of young adults and that their populations are aging. Table 2-2 presents the age group enumerations of the Muncy Creek Planning Area, Lycoming County and Pennsylvania for the 1990 and 2000 Censuses. The distribution of the population according to the age of its residents is a primary factor that may affect population growth and determine the type of services required in the region. Different age groups have diverse needs that must be specifically addressed in the comprehensive plan. For example, population shifts within the school age group (i.e., 0-19 years) will produce a direct impact on the services and facilities provided by the local school system, as well as any public or private pre-school/daycare facilities and