Hyman Minsky Meets Secular Stagnation
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Finance Without Financiers*
3 Finance without Financiers* Robert C. Hockett, Cornell Law School * Thanks to Dan Alpert, Fadhel Kaboub, Stephanie Kelton, Paul McCulley, Zoltan Polszar, Nouriel Roubini and particularly my alter ego Saule Omarova. Special thanks to Fred Block and Erik Olin Wright, who have been part of this project since its inception in 2014 – as well as to the “September Group,” where it proved necessary that same year to formulate arguments whose full elaboration has issued in this Chapter. Hockett, Finance without Financiers 4 I see, therefore, the rentier aspect of capitalism as a transitional phase which will disappear when it has done its work…Thus [we] might aim in practice… at an increase in the volume of capital until it ceases to be scarce, so that the functionless investor will no longer receive a bonus; and at a scheme of direct taxation which allows the intelligence and determination and executive skill of the financiers… (who are certainly so fond of their craft that their labour could be obtained much cheaper than at present), to be harnessed to the service of the community on reasonable terms of reward.1 INTRODUCTION: MYTHS OF SCARCITY AND INTERMEDIATION A familiar belief about banks and other financial institutions is that they function primarily as “intermediaries,” managing flows of scarce funds from private sector “savers” or “surplus units” who have accumulated them to “dissevers” or “deficit units” who have need of them and can pay for their use. This view is routinely stated in treatises,2 textbooks,3 learned journals,4 and the popular media.5 It also lurks in the background each time we hear theoretical references to “loanable funds,” practical warnings about public “crowd-out” of private investment, or the like.6 This, what I shall call “intermediated scarce private capital” view of finance bears two interesting properties. -
Why Minsky Matters: an Introduction to the Work of a Maverick Economist
Introduction Stability— even of an expansion— is destabilizing in that the more adventuresome financing of investment pays off to the leaders and others follow. —Minsky, 1975, p. 125 1 There is no final solution to the problems of organizing economic life. —Minsky, 1975, p. 168 2 Why does the work of Hyman P. Minsky matter? Because he saw “it” (the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC) coming. Indeed, when the crisis first hit, many of those familiar with his work (and even some who knew little about it) proclaimed it a “Min- sky crisis.” That alone should spark interest in his work. The queen of England famously asked her economic advi- sors why none of them had seen it coming. Obviously the an- swer is complex, but it must include reference to the evolution of macro economic theory over the postwar period— from the “Age of Keynes,” through the rise of Milton Friedman’s monetarism and the return of neoclassical economics in the particularly ex- treme form developed by Robert Lucas, and finally on to the new monetary consensus adopted by Chairman Bernanke on the precipice of the crisis. The story cannot leave out the paral- lel developments in finance theory— with its “efficient markets 2 ■ Introduction hypothesis”— and the “hands- off” approach to regulation and supervision of financial institutions. What passed for macroeconomics on the verge of the global financial collapse had little to do with reality. The world modeled by mainstream economics bore no relation to our economy. It was based on rational expectations in which everyone bets right, at least within a random error, and maximizes anything and every- thing while living in a world without financial institutions. -
How Secular Is the Current Economic Stagnation?
How secular is the current economic stagnation? Maria Roubtsova ∗ September 30, 2016 Abstract From the burst of the dotcom bubble in 2000, until the global financial crisis that started in August 2007, the global economy was growing. During that phase, macroe- conomics went through an era of general optimism around the idea of having reached a great moderation, with high steady growth and low stable inflation. Central bankers thought they managed to dampen the economic cycles. This era came to an end fol- lowing the meltdown which started with the global financial crisis of 2007. And as among economic agents, macroeconomists’ general state of mind went from optimism to pessimism. Almost ten years since the beginning of the crisis, growth is not back to its pre-crisis trends. Therefore, macroeconomists are debating the notion of a secular stagnation. Is the economy on a long-term stagnation trend, if so, for what reasons, and how to address this situation? This paper offers a critical review of the debates among macroeconomists around this notion of secular stagnation, a concept which was invented by Alvin Hansen following the global economic crisis of the 1930s, and was brought back into the public debate largely by Lawrence Summers since the end of 2013. This literature review starts with a brief synthesis of the original debate about secular stagnation, launched by Hansen in 1938, and ended in the mid-1950s, since these debates inspired contemporary theorists. The second part highlights the main elements of neoclassical explanations for secular stagnation. The third part focuses on the Minskian idea of the end of a debt super-cycle. -
What Is Minsky All About, Anyway?
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES What is Minsky All About, Anyway? Korkut Ertürk Gökcer Özgür Working Paper No: 2009-08 University of Utah Department of Economics 1645 East Central Campus Dr., Rm. 308 Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9300 Tel: (801) 581-7481 Fax: (801) 585-5649 http://www.econ.utah.edu 1 What is Minsky All About, Anyway? Korkut Ertürk Gökcer Özgür Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Ken Jameson for his helpful comments without implicating him for any possible mistakes there might be. 2 The financial crisis has been billed a “Minsky moment” in the mainstream media, turning Hyman P. Minksy into a household name. One would think that this was at long last Minsky’s moment of posthumous vindication, and in a way it was. But, oddly, a couple of post-Keynesian luminaries would have none of it. Paul Davidson, the Editor of JPKE , and Jan Kregel, senior scholar at the Levy Institute of Bard College where Minksy had spent the last of his years, were both eager to set the record straight: the current financial debacle did not qualify as a Minskyan crisis because how it unfolded differed from Minsky’s depiction of crises in his writings (Davidson 2008, Kregel 2008a). Of course, whether we think Minsky is relevant for the current crisis or not depends on what we make of him. If Minskyan work means solely his own writings and their restatement, then, Davidson and Kregel are probably right – one cannot help but focus on what is different about the current crisis. But, if instead Minksyan refers to an evolving literature that emanate from but transcend his work, their arguments miss their mark. -
The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond
Working Paper No. 822 The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond by Riccardo Bellofiore* University of Bergamo December 2014 * [email protected] This paper was prepared for the project “Financing Innovation: An Application of a Keynes-Schumpeter- Minsky Synthesis,” funded in part by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, INET grant no. IN012-00036, administered through the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Co-principal investigators: Mariana Mazzucato (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex) and L. Randall Wray (Levy Institute). The author thanks INET and the Levy Institute for support of this research. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2014 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X Abstract An understanding of, and an intervention into, the present capitalist reality requires that we put together the insights of Karl Marx on labor, as well as those of Hyman Minsky on finance. The best way to do this is within a longer-term perspective, looking at the different stages through which capitalism evolves. -
Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Policy Note 2018 / 1 DOES THE UNITED STATES FACE ANOTHER MINSKY MOMENT? l. randall wray Outgoing governor of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, recently sounded an alarm about the fragility of China’s financial sector, referring to the possibility of a “Minsky moment.” Paul McCulley coined the term and applied it first to the serial bursting of the Asian Tiger and Russian bubbles in the late 1990s, and later to our own real estate crash in 2007 that reverberated around the world as the global financial crisis (GFC). We are still mopping up after the excesses in the markets for mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (squared and cubed), and credit default swaps. Governor Zhou’s public warning was unusual and garnered the attention he presumably intended. With the 19th Communist Party Congress in full swing in Beijing, there is little doubt that recent rapid growth of Chinese debt (which increased from 162 percent to 260 percent of GDP between 2008 and 2016) was a topic of discussion, if not deep concern. Western commentators have weighed in on both sides of the debate about the likelihood of China’s debt bubble heading for a crash. And yet there has been little discussion of the far more probable visitation of another Minsky moment on America. In this policy note, I make the case that it is beginning to look a lot like déjà vu in the United States. Senior Scholar l. randall wray is a professor of economics at Bard College. -
The Limits of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis As an Explanation of the Crisis
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Palley, Thomas I. Working Paper The Limits of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis as an Explanation of the Crisis IMK Working Paper, No. 11/2009 Provided in Cooperation with: Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) at the Hans Boeckler Foundation Suggested Citation: Palley, Thomas I. (2009) : The Limits of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis as an Explanation of the Crisis, IMK Working Paper, No. 11/2009, Hans-Böckler- Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK), Düsseldorf, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:101:1-201101312750 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105923 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have -
An Institutionalist Perspective on the World Financial Crisis
An Institutionalist Perspective on the Global Financial Crisis Charles J. Whalen, Utica College April 2009 Abstract This essay, prepared for a forthcoming collection of perspectives on the current world economic crisis, offers an institutionalist viewpoint on the financial crisis at the center of world attention since mid-2008. It is divided into three sections. The first section provides a brief history of the institutionalist understanding of how an economy operates, with special emphasis on a tradition known as post-Keynesian institutionalism (PKI). The second section draws on PKI to offer an explanation of the global financial crisis. The third section identifies some of the public-policy steps that are required to achieve a more stable and broadly shared prosperity in the United States and abroad. At the heart of PKI is attention to unemployment and the broader economic concerns facing working families. That focus is rooted in the shared interests of John R. Commons and John M. Keynes, who saw the business cycle as an important cause of unemployment and recognized that attaining greater economic stability requires understanding the operation and evolution of financial institutions. 4/24/09. Prepared for Alternative Perspectives on the World Financial Crisis, edited by Steven Kates (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, forthcoming). 2 An Institutionalist Perspective on the Global Financial Crisis Charles J. Whalen Professor of Business and Economics, Utica College Visiting Fellow, Cornell University ILR School E-mail: [email protected] INTRODUCTION This chapter presents an institutionalist perspective on the financial crisis that has been at the center of world attention since mid-2008. It is divided into three sections. -
Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis and the Greek Debt Crisis
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Russian Journal of Economics 1 (2015) 419–438 www.rujec.org +\PDQ0LQVN\¶V¿QDQFLDOLQVWDELOLW\K\SRWKHVLV ً DQGWKH*UHHNGHEWFULVLV 6HUJH\%HVKHQRY,YDQ5R]PDLQVN\* National Research University Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg, Russia Abstract 7KLVDUWLFOHDWWHPSWVWRDQDO\]HWKHFXUUHQWGHEWFULVLVLQ*UHHFHEDVHGRQWKH¿QDQFLDO LQVWDELOLW\K\SRWKHVLVGHYHORSHGE\+\PDQ0LQVN\7KLVDUWLFOHVKRZVWKDWWKHK\SRWKHVLV SURYLGHVDQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIKRZDQHFRQRP\HQGRJHQRXVO\EHFRPHV³¿QDQFLDOO\IUDJLOH´ DQGWKXVSURQHWRFULVHV7KHDXWKRUVDQDO\]HKRZSXEOLFDQGSULYDWHVHFWRUEHKDYLRULQ WKH*UHHNHFRQRP\OHGWRWKHFRXQWU\¶VGHEWFULVLV,QSDUWLFXODUEDVHGRQDVDPSOHRI *UHHNFRPSDQLHVWKHDXWKRUVVKRZWKDWEHWZHHQDQGWKHPDMRULW\RIWKRVH FRPSDQLHV KDG VZLWFKHG WR IUDJLOH ¿QDQFLDO VWUXFWXUHV 6SHFLDO DWWHQWLRQ LV GHYRWHG WR WKHQHJDWLYHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIDSSO\LQJWKHQHRFODVVLFDOGRFWULQHRI³DXVWHULW\PHDVXUHV´LQ *UHHFHDVWKHSULQFLSDO³DQWLFULVLV´FRQFHSWRIPDLQVWUHDPHFRQRPLFVFLHQFH 1RQSUR¿WSDUWQHUVKLS³9RSURV\(NRQRPLNL´+RVWLQJE\(OVHYLHU%9$OOULJKWV UHVHUYHG -(/FODVVL¿FDWLRQ%(((( .H\ZRUGV¿QDQFLDOLQVWDELOLW\K\SRWKHVLV0LQVN\3RVW.H\QHVLDQLVP¿QDQFLDOIUDJLOLW\*UHHN FULVLVDXVWHULW\PHDVXUHV 1. Introduction 7KHPDMRULW\RIWKLVDUWLFOHZDVZULWWHQODVWVXPPHUZKHQ*UHHFH¶VQDWLRQDOGHEW WR(XURSHDQEDQNVDQGWKH,0)ZDVRILWV*'3RUPRUHWKDQ(85ELOOLRQ *UHHFHZDVVFKHGXOHGWRSD\EDFN(85ELOOLRQWRWKH,0)RQ-XQHEXW ZDVXQDEOHWRGRVRGXHWRLWVFDWDVWURSKLFOLTXLGLW\JDS2Q-XQHWKHFRXQWU\ LQVWLWXWHGFDSLWDOÀRZFRQWUROV)RUWKUHHZHHNV XQWLO-XO\ HYHU\EDQNZDV FORVHGWKURXJKRXW*UHHFHZKLOHWKHKROLGD\VRQWKH$WKHQV6WRFN([FKDQJHZHUH 7KH XSGDWHG -
Low Equilibrium Real Rates, Financial Crisis, and Secular Stagnation Lawrence H
CHAPTER 2 Low Equilibrium Real Rates, Financial Crisis, and Secular Stagnation Lawrence H. Summers he past decade has been a tumultuous one for the US economy, characterized by the buildup of huge excesses in financial markets T during the 2001–2007 period; the Great Recession and its contain- ment; and, finally, a recovery that has been very slow by historical stan- dards and insufficient to bring the economy back even close to the levels of output that were anticipated before the recession. The containment of the Recession was no easy feat, since economic conditions initially looked worse than in the early months of the Great Depression. However, the economy is still struggling five years later, and the correct diagnosis of its ailment is requisite for applying the appropriate treatment going forward. Hence, in this paper I will therefore discuss what I label the new sec- ular stagnation hypothesis. This hypothesis asserts that the economy as currently structured is not capable of achieving satisfactory growth and stable financial conditions simultaneously. The zero lower bound on base nominal interest rates, in conjunction with low inflation, makes the achievement of sufficient demand to bring about full employment prob- lematic. If and when ways can be found to generate sufficient demand, they will likely be associated with unsustainable financial conditions. Secular stagnation was first suggested by Alvin Hansen in the late 1930s,1 but did not prove relevant given the rise in demand due to World War II and the massive pent-up demand for consumer and investment goods after the war. The difficulty that the US economy has had for many years in simultaneously achieving full employment, strong growth, and I am indebted to Simon Hilpert for extensive and excellent assistance in turn- ing my conference presentation into the current paper. -
New Tech V. New Deal: Fintech As a Systemic Phenomenon
New Tech v. New Deal: Fintech as a Systemic Phenomenon Saule T. Omarova† Fintech is the hottest topic in finance today. Recent advances in cryptography, data analytics, and machine learning are visibly “disrupting” traditional methods of delivering financial services and conducting financial transactions. Less visibly, fintech is also changing the way we think about finance: it is gradually recasting our collective understanding of the financial system in normatively neutral terms of applied information science. By making financial transactions easier, faster, and cheaper, fintech seems to promise a micro-level “win-win” solution to the financial system’s many ills. This Article challenges such narratives and presents an alternative account of fintech as a systemic, macro-level phenomenon. Grounding the analysis of evolving fintech trends in a broader institutional context, the Article exposes the normative and political significance of fintech as the catalyst for a potentially decisive shift in the underlying public-private balance of powers, competencies, and roles in the financial system. In developing this argument, the Article makes three principal scholarly contributions. First, it introduces the concept of the New Deal settlement in finance: a fundamental political arrangement, in force for nearly a century, pursuant to which profit-seeking private actors retain control over allocating capital and generating financial risks, while the sovereign public bears responsibility for maintaining systemic financial stability. Second, the Article advances a novel conceptual framework for understanding the deep-seated dynamics that have eroded the New Deal settlement in recent decades. It offers a taxonomy of core mechanisms that both (a) enable private actors to continuously synthesize tradable financial assets and scale up trading activities, and (b) undermine the public’s ability to manage the resulting system-wide risks. -
Shadow Banking and the Political Economy of Financial Innovation
Shadow Banking and the Political Economy of Financial Innovation Anastasia Nesvetailova Introduction This article examines the lessons the phenomenon of shadow banking poses to students of political economy today. I do this by focusing on the role of the shadow banking system in the global financial crisis, and inquiring into the role that financial innovation and securitisation in particular, play in the financialised capitalism of today. My major premise here is that in retrospect, the global financial meltdown was peculiar in its dynamics. Although it was quickly diagnosed as a credit crunch and a financial crisis, it was not triggered by a collapse of an overvalued market, like for instance, the dotcom crash of 2001. Similarly, while it quickly matured into an international banking crisis, it did not involve a classical bank run which remains an anachronism in the age of deposit insurance guaranteed by the state. Finally and perhaps most peculiarly, although chronologically the crisis signalled the end of the credit boom of 2002-07 and was even interpreted as the collapse of a super-bubble (Soros 2008), the global crisis was not driven by investor mania or irrational speculation by market participants. Instead, the crisis of 2007-09 was triggered by the inability to value assets and execute over-the-counter (OTC) transactions with highly complex, tailor-made financial instruments created by the financial industry through the practice of securitisation (transforming illiquid loans into financial securities). In 2007, the scale of this web of financial innovation was captured by Paul McCulley who argued that ‘the growth of the shadow banking system, which operated legally yet entirely outside the regulatory realm ‘drove one of the biggest lending booms in history, and collapsed into one of the most crushing financial crises we’ve ever seen’ (McCulley 2009).