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MARKET ANALYSIS Worldwide PC Interface And MARKET ANALYSIS Worldwide PC Interface and Technologies 2005-2010 ww.idc.com ww.idc.com F o r e c a s t Bob O'Donnell Shane Rau Richard Shim IDC OPINION For a technology provider or OEM, the time when its right to end support for one interface or technology and begin support for another is a matter of timing, listening to customers and observing market dynamics. Remove an interface too early and customers--whether OEMs or end users--will complain, such as was the case recently with 1394 ports in notebooks. Remove an interface too late and customers will bear needless cost and restricted design flexibility, something crucial particularly in tiny desktops and ultraportable notebooks. Still the benefits of greater cost efficiencies 01701 USA P.508.872.8200 F.508.935.4015 w F.508.935.4015 P.508.872.8200 USA 01701 and improving performance of systems will continue to be powerful motivations to drive OEMs. In some cases, legacy interfaces, such as parallel and serial ports, will be removed from systems without replacement. in other cases, such as on the notebook side, interfaces are getting smaller and faster, such as ExpressCard as compared to PC Card/CardBus. The following are some highlights of attach rates of several interfaces and technologies forecasted for desktop and portable PCs: The popularity of WLAN (Wi-Fi) has made PC users accustomed to the idea of being constantly connected. This user behavior will extend to cellular wide area networking, which will grow initially in the commercial PC segment. As service costs decline, cellular WAN will increase in the consumer segment as well in the later part of the forecast period. The PC's role as the hub for consumer devices such as digital audio players and Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA Framingham, Street Speen 5 Headquarters: Global digital cameras sustain adoption and use of high-speed interfaces, including USB 2.0, Ethernet (for broadband modems), and PCI Express. The arrival of Windows Vista will boost market demand for discrete graphics controllers (on add-in cards) but the economic advantages of integrated solutions, and their improving performance, mean that integrated solutions will remain dominant. The emergence of DisplayPort will cloud the video interface landscape as it challenges the entrenched HDMI interface. Support from PC manufacturers gives DisplayPort serious influence but with backing from the consumer electronics market, HDMI will be hard to ignore. Filing Information: February 2006, IDC #, Volume: 1, Tab: Markets Personal Computing: Market Analysis TABLE OF CONTENTS P In This Study 1 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 1 Situation Overview 1 Future Outlook 2 Forecast and Assumptions ....................................................................................................................... 2 Wired Device Connectivity Interfaces ................................................................................................ 2 USB 1.1 and USB 2.0................................................................................................................. 2 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 3 IEEE 1394a and 1394b .............................................................................................................. 4 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 5 PCI and PCI-Express/Mini-PCI and Mini PCI-Express ............................................................... 6 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 8 Serial Port................................................................................................................................... 8 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 10 Parallel Port................................................................................................................................ 10 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 11 Wireless Device Connectivity Interfaces............................................................................................ 12 Bluetooth and Ultra-Wideband ................................................................................................... 12 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 14 Wireless Networking Interfaces ......................................................................................................... 14 Wireless Networking – 802.11abg.............................................................................................. 14 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 16 Wireless Networking – 802.11n.................................................................................................. 16 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 18 Cellular Wide Area Networking................................................................................................... 18 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 21 WiMax ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 23 Wired Networking Interfaces.............................................................................................................. 23 v.90/92 Analog Modems............................................................................................................. 23 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 25 Fast Ethernet and Gigabit Ethernet ............................................................................................ 25 Storage Interfaces ............................................................................................................................. 27 Parallel ATA and Serial ATA ...................................................................................................... 27 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 29 Graphics Interface and Technologies................................................................................................ 29 Integrated and Discrete Graphics............................................................................................... 29 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 31 AGP and PCI-Express Graphics ................................................................................................ 32 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 33 Security ............................................................................................................................................. 33 Trusted Platform Modules .......................................................................................................... 33 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 35 Bus interfaces.................................................................................................................................... 36 # ©2006 IDC TABLE OF CONTENTS — Continued P PC Card/CardBus....................................................................................................................... 36 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 37 ExpressCard............................................................................................................................... 38 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 40 External storage interfaces................................................................................................................ 40 Floppy disk drives....................................................................................................................... 40 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................. 41 Video interfaces................................................................................................................................. 41 VGA............................................................................................................................................ 41 Key Assumption(s) .............................................................................................................
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