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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly

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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly We are pleased to present Edition 24 of the Gresham Mining and Infrastructure Services Quarterly (GMISQ), a snapshot of the performance, news and trends across the resources and infrastructure services sectors. The Gresham Mining and Infrastructure Services Index (GMISI) fell 6% during the September quarter, compared to a 2% increase in the broader equity market. This was driven by share prices decreases from several of the largest companies in the index, including a 30% decline in CIMIC’s price. Excluding the 5 largest constituents, the GMISI would have increased by 3%, with 33 of the 50 companies seeing share price appreciation. In this edition we review the FY19 reporting season across the sector, which was characterised by generally strong performance. Around two thirds of participants recorded double digit revenue and earnings growth, with companies exposed to mining production well represented in the top half of the group. The outlook also remains positive, evidenced by most companies providing outlook statements guiding towards continued growth in FY20, and favourable demand noted across both resources and infrastructure. This is consistent with significant contract award activity observed during in the quarter, and median consensus forecast revenue growth of 10% pa over the next two years. Despite the positive FY19 reporting season, the market reaction was mixed across the sector, reflecting high expectations heading into results. Valuation multiples have generally strengthened slightly, driven by increasing share prices across the majority of smaller constituents. The median FY20 PE and EV/EBIT ratios sit at 12.4x and 8.2x respectively, both above long term averages. There was limited corporate activity during the period, with QIC’s proposed acquisition of Pacific Energy and Cardno’s planned demerger the most notable. However, there is likely to be further activity in the coming months, with a number of processes underway. In addition, after virtually no primary equity raisings for the better part of a decade, there are some potential IPOs in the pipeline for the next 12 months. The first successful listing was maintenance services group Mader, with the fate of other potential candidates depending on conditions in a relatively fragile IPO market. Editorial Team Chris Branston Tom Waddell David Burton [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Edition 24 Gresham Advisory Partners Ltd is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory 1 October 2019 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. Share Price Movements GMISI CONSTITUENTS1 LEADERS & LAGGARDS (SHARE PRICE)1 Ranks Market Cap (A$m) Share Leaders Laggards Company price Sep Jun 30 Sep 19 30 Jun 19 r % 96% 1 1 CIMIC Group Ltd. (ASX:CIM) 10,198 14,517 -30% 63% 58% 2 2 Orica Ltd. (ASX:ORI) 8,578 7,701 11% 47% 36% 3 3 WorleyParsons Ltd. (ASX:WOR) 6,752 7,635 -12% 4 4 Seven Group Holdings Ltd. (ASX:SVW) 5,912 6,275 -6% 5 5 Downer EDI Ltd. (ASX:DOW) 4,639 4,115 13% 6 6 ALS Ltd. (ASX:ALQ) 3,869 3,564 9% (17%) (17%) (24%) (28%) (30%) 7 7 Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:MIN) 2,517 2,818 -11% 8 10 Ausdrill Ltd. (ASX:ASL) 1,530 1,251 22% CIMIC Valmec 9 9 Monadelphous Group Ltd. (ASX:MND) 1,485 1,774 -16% Synertec Laserbond SRGGlobal 10 11 Service Stream Ltd. (ASX:SSM) 1,066 1,129 -7% PacificEnergy 11 12 NRW Holdings Ltd. (ASX:NWH) 874 943 -8% Tempo Australia 12 13 Emeco Holdings Ltd. (ASX:EHL) 619 669 -7% SaundersInternational 13 14 Imdex Ltd. (ASX:IMD) 543 494 7% NeptuneMarine Services 14 15 Cardno Ltd. (ASX:CDD) 498 420 19% ResourceDevelopment Group 15 18 Pacific Energy Ltd. (ASX:PEA) 465 295 58% 1 16 16 Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (ASX:MAH) 442 399 11% PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO S&P 200 INDICES 17 17 Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. (ASX:AQZ) 289 324 -11% 18 19 MACA Ltd. (ASX:MLD) 257 241 7% 10% 7% 19 22 Lycopodium Ltd. (ASX:LYL) 216 192 12% 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 20 21 Decmil Group Ltd. (ASX:DCG) 211 216 -3% 0% 21 23 Civmec Ltd. (ASX:CVL) 207 174 19% 22 26 BSA Ltd. (ASX:BSA) 189 139 35% (0%) (1%) (1%) 23 24 Fleetwood Corp. Ltd. (ASX:FWD) 183 161 14% (5%) (6%) (6%) (6%) 24 20 SRG Global Ltd. (ASX:SRG) 181 218 -17% 25 28 Boart Longyear Ltd. (ASX:BLY) 171 131 30% 26 27 Engenco Ltd. (ASX:EGN) 171 132 30% 27 30 RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd. (ASX:RUL) 166 123 34% IT 28 25 MMA Offshore Ltd. (ASX:MRM) 163 150 9% GMISI A-REIT Energy Utilities 29 29 Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Ltd. (ASX:SXE) 134 126 6% Materials Resources Industrials Cons. Disc. HealthCare S&P/ASX200 Cons.Staples 30 31 GR Engineering Services Ltd. (ASX:GNG) 134 123 9% All Ordinaries Telco Services 31 34 Mastermyne Group Ltd. (ASX:MYE) 121 95 28% Financial-x-A-REIT 32 32 Austin Engineering Ltd. (ASX:ANG) 110 104 6% 33 33 Mitchell Services Ltd. (ASX:MSV) 99 103 -3% PERFORMANCE OVER TIME 34 37 AJ Lucas Group Ltd. (ASX:AJL) 79 60 31% 35 41 Laserbond Ltd. (ASX:LBL) 72 37 96% 90 Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Index (GMISI) 36 36 Boom Logistics Ltd. (ASX:BOL) 72 66 10% S&P/ASX 200 37 35 Veem Ltd. (ASX:VEE) 72 69 4% 80 S&P/ASX 200 Resources 38 39 Swick Mining Services Ltd. (ASX:SWK) 63 53 2% GMISI (less top 5) 39 38 Primero Group Ltd. (ASX:PGX) 55 59 -6% 40 40 LogiCamms Ltd. (ASX:LCM) 46 37 24% 70 41 43 Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd. (ASX:MCE) 42 32 30% 42 44 Valmec Ltd. (ASX:VMX) 38 28 36% 60 43 45 XRF Scientific Ltd. (ASX:XRF) 33 25 35% 44 42 Saunders International Ltd. (ASX:SND) 26 35 -24% 50 45 46 Veris Ltd. (ASX:VRS) 21 17 19% 46 50 Neptune Marine Services Ltd. (ASX:NMS) 16 11 47% 47 48 VDM Group Ltd. (ASX:VMG) 14 13 - 40 48 51 Synertec Corp. Ltd. (ASX:SOP) 11 7 63% 49 47 Tempo Australia Ltd. (ASX:TPP) 10 14 -28% 30 50 49 Resource Development Group Ltd. (ASX:RDG) 9 11 -17% Sep16 Mar17 Sep17 Mar18 Sep18 Mar19 Sep19 Notes: (1) Performance measured over the period 30-Jun-19 to 30-Sep-19 (inclusive). Source: FactSet, IRESS. 2 2 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% Median: 13.7% - (20.0%) (40.0%) (60.0%) AJL LYL LBL FY19 Results Snapshot: Performance and Gearing Performance FY19 Results Snapshot: BLY ASL SXE XRF TPP CVL EHL VEE VRS PEA BSA RUL BOL SRG SOP SPO CIM PGX ALQ AQZ SND IMD MIN CDD EGN SSM DCG Source RDG LCM MYE ANG SWK MCE MSV MLD GNG SVW VMX NMS FWD VMG MAH WOR N E E R MND NWH DOW MRM EBIT FY BIT BITDA EVENUE ET 19 : FactSet; D growth G results EBT ROWTH 100.0% G ROWTH G Company Company filings / E / 80.0% ROWTH Large Cap (>$1bn) Cap Large of were 60.0% NTERPRISE FY19 FY19 PCP (%) 14 40.0% % Median: 18.6% PCP FY19 (%) generally , 20.0% FY19 19 . Note: for companies reporting part year results the during quarter, the prior corresponding period reflects the prior year’ - % and (20.0%) V PCP ALUE (40.0%) positive, 21 (60.0%) (%) % AJL LYL LBL BLY ASL SXE respectively XRF CVL EHL VEE VRS BSA PEA RUL BOL SRG SPO CIM PGX ALQ AQZ IMD MIN CDD EGN SSM RDG LCM MYE ANG SWK MSV MLD GNG SVW VMX FWD MAH WOR MND NWH DOW MRM with most 100.0% 80.0% on companies Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) and $200m (between Cap Mid 60.0% a pcp 40.0% Median: 20.7% 20.0% basis - 3 achieving (20.0%) . (40.0%) (60.0%) AJL LYL LBL BLY ASL SXE XRF CVL EHL growth, VEE BSA PEA RUL BOL SRG SPO CIM PGX ALQ AQZ IMD MIN CDD EGN SSM LCM MYE ANG SWK MLD GNG SVW VMX FWD MAH WOR MND NWH DOW with 90.0% 60.0% median 30.0% Median: 8% - sector (30.0%) Small Cap (<$200m) Cap Small (60.0%) revenue (90.0%) s p AJL LYL LBL BLY ASL ORI SXE TPP CVL XRF EHL VEE VRS BSA PEA RUL BOL SRG SOP CIM PGX ALQ , AQZ SND IMD MIN CDD EGN SSM DCG RDG LCM MYE ANG SWK MCE MSV MLD GNG art art year results. SVW VMX NMS FWD VMG MAH WOR MND NWH DOW MRM EBITDA and 3 FY19 Results Snapshot: Guidance Statements The majority of companies provided some form of guidance for FY20, with nearly all predicting solid growth over the previous year. SELECTED GUIDANCE STATEMENTS Company Business Guidance Statement “Alliance retains a positive outlook for the 2020 financial year. Scheduled services are expected to Alliance Charter aviation services increase for a number of resource sector clients as a result of high commodity prices and increasing Aviation mine production levels” Diversified mining “Targeting an underlying NPAT(A) for FY20 of around $140m on the assumption that the positive Ausdrill services market, and global and regional conditions remain favourable” (FY19 underlying NPAT(A): $103m) “Australia and New Zealand continues to experience significant public sector infrastructure spend by Resource & infrastructure State and Federal Governments. A number of significant projects in the West Australian Iron Ore and Decmil construction LNG sectors also continue to progress to construction. Based on the Company’s current tender pipeline and order book, Decmil expects FY20 revenue to be ~$700 million.” (FY19 Revenue: $663m) “Downer is targeting NPATA of around $365 million before minority interests for the 2020 financial Downer Diversified services year” (FY19 NPATA: $340.1m) “Our objective in FY20 is to continue deleveraging by growing earnings and using strong operating Emeco Mining equipment rental cash flow to reduce debt.
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