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Planetary Quotas and the Planetary Accounting Framework Comparing Human Activity to Global Environmental Limits

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Planetary Quotas and the Planetary Accounting Framework Comparing Human Activity to Global Environmental Limits School of Design and Built Environment Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute Planetary Quotas and the Planetary Accounting Framework Comparing Human Activity to Global Environmental Limits Katherine Meyer This thesis is presented for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy of Curtin University November 2018 i DECLARATION To the best of my knowledge and belief this thesis contains no material previously published by any other person except where due acknowledgment has been made. This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university. Signature: …………………………………………. Date: …21st November 2018…………... ii ABSTRACT Human activity is altering environmental processes to the extent that we are at risk of changing the state of the planet from one that is hospitable to humanity to one that is potentially hostile. The Planetary Boundaries are global environmental limits derived from Earth system Science that together define the “safe operating space”. Within the Planetary Boundaries, the risk of changing the state of the planet is low but already four of the Planetary Boundaries have been transgressed. There is an urgent need to manage human impacts on the global environment so that we can return to the safe operating space. Policy makers and scientists want to use the Planetary Boundaries to manage human impacts on the environment so that we can return to the safe operating space. However, the Planetary Boundaries were not designed to be scaled or compared to human activity. There is a need to translate the Planetary Boundaries into a framework that is accessible and actionable. This thesis develops the concept of Planetary Accounting using Planetary Quotas to achieve this goal. It uses three key theories to resolve the issue: First, management theory showed how to relate change in the commons to a poly-scalar approach. Second, from accounting theory was the understanding that standards and limits are needed if a realistic approach to achieving human change is being sought. Third, from environmental accounting theory there are different categories of indicators - Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts, and Responses – and only if indicators are uniformly in the Pressure category can human activity be related to a limit and scaled accordingly. Thus, environmental accounting mechanisms were used to translate the detailed Earth system Science in the Planetary Boundaries to create 9 Planetary Quotas – limits for human activity in “environmental currencies” such as carbon emissions, water consumption, nitrogen use, and aerosol pollution. A high-level Planetary Accounting Framework provides the mechanism to scale these indicators, the Planetary Quotas, and compare them to any scale of human activity. Planetary Accounting allows meaningful decisions to be made at any level or sector regarding policy, planning, technology, business operations, legislation, and behaviour. It could enable the incorporation of the economic value of environmental impacts and management into existing global economic structures. Planetary Accounting enables the practical application and communication of the Planetary Boundaries to all scales of human activity. iii Dedicated to my children Patrick and Hazel. I hope that we manage to hand over a healthier planet to your generation. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to acknowledge my supervisor Professor Peter Newman. Peter has believed in the potential of this project from the outset and has helped me to persevere even when I felt I had taken on more than I could manage. Peter was the inspiration for my research field trip which added more to depth to my research than I could have fathomed. He has provided enormous insights and encouragement throughout this project and I couldn’t have completed this journey without him. Secondly, I would like to express my huge gratitude to my husband Owen who has supported this project in so many different ways. He encouraged me to take on the project even though we had just had our first child when I started. He has taken substantial time out from his own career to look after our children to support my research. He has also been an amazing sounding board for my work, helping me to break down and move past many obstacles in my research and thinking. I would also like to give particular thanks to: My dad Alan and brother Mikey for the many hours they have spent reviewing my work and the many insights they have both contributed; My mum Sally for all her hours of babysitting to allow me to write up my thesis; My brother David for his endless support, advice and encouragement; Greg Morrison for his early direction on how to approach an effective literature review; Christine Finlay and Imran Khan for all their administrative support which was always done with such warmth and speed; and Friends and family who have given me so much support and encouragement along the way – with particular thanks to Roxanne Butters, David and Christine Campbell, Katie Brown, and Zoe Sizemore. v During my fieldtrip I met so many people who contributed so much to my work, and I would like to thank all who spent the time to hear about and discuss my project. In particular I would like to acknowledge the insights and encouragement from Will Steffen, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockstrӧm, Sarah Cornell, Andreas Hauser, Arjen Hoekstra, Ashok Chapagain, Morten Ryberg, Michael Hauschild, Dieter Gerten, Wolfgang Lucht, Albert Bleeker, Jan Willem, Harry Wilting, Detlef van Vuuren, Paul Lucas, Alessandro Galli, and Paulo Magalhães Thank you also to APA, CUPSA, and AuDA who supported this research. There are so many other people who have supported and encouraged me on this journey and I am so grateful to them all. vi Table of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... xvi INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................. 18 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 18 1.1 The Journey..................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Research Questions ........................................................................................................ 5 1.3 Planetary Quotas and the Planetary Accounting Framework ........................................ 5 1.4 A Guide to this Thesis ..................................................................................................... 7 1.5 Publications .................................................................................................................. 11 SECTION 1 ..................................................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 2 .................................................................................................................................... 13 2 The science of anthropogenic climate change ..................................................................... 13 Abstract......................................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 14 2.2 Earth as a System .......................................................................................................... 15 2.3 Human Activity is Changing the State of the Planet ..................................................... 16 2.3.1 Understanding CO2 and temperature .................................................................. 17 2.4 Is the Earth getting warmer? ........................................................................................ 21 2.4.1 1970s predictions of an imminent ice age ............................................................ 22 2.4.2 1934 - the warmest year on record ...................................................................... 27 2.4.3 The 1998 – 2015 warming hiatus ......................................................................... 28 2.4.4 Global warming or the urban heat island effect ................................................... 29 2.4.5 Antarctic sea ice is increasing ............................................................................... 29 2.5 Humans activity is the main driver for the changes to the state of the Earth ............. 30 2.6 Climate Change Matters ............................................................................................... 33 2.7 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER 3 .................................................................................................................................... 38 3 The Holocene, the Anthropocene, and the Planetary Boundaries ....................................... 38 Abstract..................................................................................................................................... 38 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 39 3.2 Planetary Limits – a brief history .................................................................................
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