PERFORMANCE CHANGES CAUSED BY INCREASES IN CAMDEN LIBRARIES’ OPENING HOURS
In January 2009, Camden Council increased the opening hours of its public libraries. However, it did not increase the opening hours by a constant number or a constant proportion, but by a method which favoured bigger libraries. CPLUG had argued strenuously against this, but to no avail.
CPLUG’s Concerns The suggested reason for increasing Camden’s library opening hours was that it would enable more people to visit the libraries. CPLUG did not disagree with this assumption and attempted to ensure that the available resources were allocated where they would do the most good, rather than where was most bureaucratically convenient. This “value for money” argument went unheeded.
One of CPLUG’s major concerns was the effect that a large allocation of resources to the Swiss Cottage Library (library no. 3 in map below) would have on the surrounding smaller libraries. In the recent past, this library has benefited when other libraries have not. Thus, the public increasingly has tended to use Swiss Cottage in place of the local libraries. It is to be expected that this cannibalisation of the user pool will lead to a continually reinforced downward spiral for the small libraries and is a recipe for eventual library closures - very bad news for those who have difficulty travelling. It is also bad for community cohesion and for the environment.
It is tempting to assume that the cost of implementing the opening hours changes is simply proportional to the change in those hours. However, the size of the library has a marked affect on the cost. Thus, the 14.5% (8 hours) increase in opening hours at Swiss Cottage almost certainly cost more than the 26.8% (11 hours) at Kilburn. There is little doubt that all other Camden libraries were not considered to be worthy of a similar investment and some appear to have been written off, as beyond help. To some extent, this appearance is (possibly) misleading and is the result of the simplistic method of resource allocation.
There seems to have been an attempt to take into account past increases in opening hours (introduction of Sunday opening) for some small libraries by giving them a below average allocation i.e. Heath (+1 hour, 2.1%) and West Hampstead (+1 hour, 2.1%). However, this even handed approach did not extend to Swiss Cottage. It is obvious that, from the outset, it was intended that this library would get the lion’s share of the money available.
The other favoured library in the allocation of additional opening hours was Kilburn. This library’s catchment area covers a generally deprived area. So a generous increase in resources could probably be justified on community needs grounds. However, this argument applies to several other areas in Camden where little was allocated. The conclusion has to be drawn that community need was not considered relevant or was of only small importance compared to the smooth operation of the Library Service itself.
Map legend
Mobile library stops
Libraries Belsize Library Camden Town Library Chalk Farm library Heath Library Highgate Library Holborn Library Kentish Town Library Kilburn Library Local Studies and Archives Ctre. Queens Crescent Library Regents Park Library St Pancras Library Swiss Cottage Central Library West Hampstead Library
Improvements in Library Performance Resulting from Increases in Opening Hours CPLUG has made one previous attempt to isolate from the Camden Libraries performance figures the affect of increases in opening hours. This was based on quarterly comparisons. It was found that random, short-term volatility (possibly due to small, local population changes) made this impossible to carry out with any acceptable degree of precision. Claims by the Council based on this method should therefore be discounted. The averaging effect of yearly comparisons make this a more reliable method and is the basis for this analysis.
Camden Council claims that: “In 2009, both Library Visits and Issues were 6% higher than in 2008; Computer Use (Hours) were up by 16% and Computer Use (Sessions) were up by 15%”. This appears to be the case for Visits and Computer Use, but understates the improvement for Issues by almost a factor of two (see table below). One reason for this discrepancy is that the Camden figures include data for the Home Library Service and the Mobile Library. Whilst both services are of great value to the borough, they have not been subject to the changes in opening hours that are the concern of this analysis.
The Library Service’s preferred measure for judging performance is the number of visits to libraries. The concentration on this figure has enabled the Service to downgrade the collapse in borrowing, which has occurred in the past two decades, to a minor mishap. This judgement is not shared by library users. Camden’s own survey has shown that 82% of library users use its libraries to borrow items, usually books.
So, by the Camden preferred measure, the increases in opening hours have generated a worthwhile, approximately pro-rata borough improvement. This outcome was just what was expected. What was not predicted were the large improvements in Issues and Computer Usage figures. The implication of this novel situation is that people are spending more time in the libraries. They are not as rushed as they previously were. This may well be partly due to the additional opening hours, but may also be caused by them simply being unemployed and having nowhere else to go.
It is accepted that unemployment is a lagging indicator in a recession. Therefore, for a recession starting towards the latter half of 2008, unemployment would be expected to rise significantly in 2009. This fits fairly well with actual unemployment data and can be expected to have generated a significant change in overall library user behaviour throughout 2009. Unemployment is a far more potent driver of attitude change than a few extra opening hours at the local library. When the 2009 CIPFA Actuals data is published, this theory can be tested as, if it is correct, most Library Services should show increases in book issues (CDs & DVDs cost money to borrow and are less likely to be on the “must get list” of the unemployed).
For whatever reason(s), the comparison of the 2008 figures with those for 2009 shows a good improvement at the borough level. CPLUG never doubted that there would be such an improvement. It is an elementary retailing strategy to stay open longer, if you want to sell more. CPLUG was much more concerned by what may result at a community level – were there going to be losers as well as winners at this level. The table below breaks down the borough total to individual library performances. This is the data which is of importance to the various communities within Camden.
Library Jan – Dec 2008 Jan – Dec 2009 % Op. Hours 2008 / 2009 Change % Issues Visitors Computer Issues Visitors Computer Change Issues Visitors Computer Hours Hours (actual hours) Hours Highgate 26639 74930 9967 27827 74144 11012 6.25 (+2hrs) 4.46 -1.05 10.48 Queens Crs 444.7 179813 24642 47185 175476 31057 6.1 (+3hrs) 6.18 -2.41 26.03 Regents Pk. 19037 66726 8976 21248 69065 9880 6.25 (+2hrs) 11.62 3.46 10.07 Swiss Cott. 272534 460420 71165 278387 512735 81812 14.5 (+8hrs) 2.15 11.36 14.96 Belsize 21072 45113 3424 22343 45284 3750 4.1 (+1hr) 6.03 0.34 9.52 Heath 60969 101779 6495 64071 100828 6716 2.1 (+1hrs) 5.09 -0.93 3.40 Kilburn 50909 203049 38458 59740 236950 45868 26.8 (+11hrs) 17.35 16.70 19.27 Chalk Farm 25282 59057 2661 27953 62188 2777 4.1 (+1hr) 10.56 5.30 4.36 Kentish Tn. 104123 227042 20276 107138 233494 22061 6.1 (+3hrs) 2.90 2.84 6.20 Holborn 93439 216310 28856 97479 224377 31341 6.1 (+3hrs) 4.32 3.73 8.80 Camden Tn 56505 161824 20216 60454 169116 24589 6.1 (+3hrs) 6.99 4.51 21.63 St Pancras 101442 211367 21376 108770 224828 25401 6.1 (+3hrs) 7.22 6.37 18.83 W.Hampstd 68170 89971 11785 73674 88569 12124 2.1 (+1hrs) 8.07 -1.56 2.88 Total 900565.7 2097401 268297 996269 2222421 310550 10.63 5.96 15.75
One immediately obvious local deviation from the overall borough picture is the fall in the number of visits to Highgate (map number 6), Heath (map number 5), Queens Crescent (map number 7) and West Hampstead (map number 1) Libraries. In addition, Belsize Library (map number 4) only just avoided a reduction in the number of visits. This is exactly the situation that CPLUG had warned was likely to be generated by the opening hours allocations.
A puzzling aspect of the loser list is the inclusion of Highgate Library on it. This was considered by CPLUG to be a little too far from Swiss Cottage to be very affected by that library’s overly generous treatment. However, there is a bus service which passes both libraries, providing very easy travel between them. This was discounted by CPLUG because of its low frequency.
A second interesting aspect of the loser list is the exclusion of the Chalk Farm Library (map number 9) from it. Far from being crushed by the nearby Swiss Cottage juggernaut, it is one of the two libraries (the other library is St Pancras) which have delivered a greater percentage increase in visitor numbers than the percentage increase in opening hours. Proportionally, the investment in these libraries has produced greater returns than the other libraries and they would probably have benefited from a greater share of the total resources. The fact that these libraries were not obvious candidates for above average improvement is a vindication of the CPLUG proposals for a more practical, lower risk method of investing the available resources.
The CPLUG suggestion was that the increase in opening hours should take place in two stages. During the first stage, all libraries would be given a similar number of extra hours, with the total stage investment taking a third to a half of that available. At the end of a given period, the performance of the libraries would be assessed and the remaining money be invested to provide the best return for the public. This very simple, pragmatic approach was rejected, just as the warnings were.
It has been suggested that the primary cause of increases in Issues from Camden libraries in 2009 may have actually been increasing unemployment rather than changes in opening hours. If this were the case, any improvement in the Swiss Cottage Issues figure would be significantly less than those for the smaller libraries. This is due to people who normally travel to the library to make use of its greater stock levels no longer being able to afford to do so. The unemployed are generally less mobile. This does seem to have been the case, although Swiss Cottage Computer Use should also show similar underperformance and does not. Perhaps Computer Use at Swiss Cottage is more affected by the unemployed trying to upgrade their skills.
The West Hampstead Library performance seems to exhibit an extreme version of the schizophrenic reaction to the changes. Whilst it did suffer from a predicted drop in visitors (only Queens Crescent had a worse result), it also produced the fourth highest increase in Issues. The unemployment argument would not completely explain the anomaly. There has to be another factor involved - perhaps improved stock levels or better presentation of the stock i.e. better management.
There has been a suggestion from Flick Rea that the Camden libraries’ book purchases have increased. This has happened occasionally in the past and it is usual for the increase to be insufficient to stop the total book stock decreasing further. Perhaps this time is different. If it is, then the outcomes of the opening hours changes will have been obscured somewhat. The same observation can be made with respect to any changes to public access computer provision.
Conclusions The decision to provide a general increase in library opening hours was quite logical, but needed some courage to carry through. It can now be presented as a successful initiative. However, this success could have been far greater and not qualified by damage to several small libraries. It is unfortunate that it is unlikely that resources will be available in the near future for a second wave of additional opening hours or similar improvement. Therefore, the lessons learnt from this particular exercise will probably have been forgotten, when it again becomes possible to consider genuine improvements to Camden’s libraries.
It is easy to be critical of the unheeding attitude of Camden Library management in the way that (often) good ideas are presented and implemented. To a certain extent this management is struggling to come to terms with changing attitudes in local government. Whilst it has learnt the new vocabulary, it has yet to fully understand and accept the concepts. The theoretical answer to a management wedded to top down methods is better scrutiny, but that is just another problem.
Unlike the previous CPLUG attempt to interpret quarterly data, it has proved possible to draw some reliable conclusions from the yearly data presented here. However, one year is a short time in the life of a library service and the opening hours changes are just one of a long list of changes. It is the cumulative effect of these which dictates the success or otherwise of the service. For many years, CPLUG has been charting the long-term trends within each of Camden’s libraries. There are too many charts (43) to reproduce them in a small report, but links to them are given in the appendix. Inspection of these charts reveals that the opening hours changes have moved the long-term trend curves by a very small amount (both up and down). Only if the performance changes experienced so far are maintained into the future will there be a significant movement. If this does happen, the charts suggest that the positive effects will have wound the clock back two or three years in the fortunate libraries. The negative effects have probably simply brought forward what was going to occur anyway in about the same timescale. So far, there has been no indication of a Hawthorne Effect. That probably needs longer than a year to appear and unemployment effects will almost certainly swamp it.
Appendix Charts giving long term performance curves for each of Camden’s libraries can be found at: http://cplug.btck.co.uk/PerformanceofCamdenLibraries
Alan Templeton for CPLUG February 2010