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The Employment Situation: April 1997 and the Consumer Price Index S. HRG. 105-66 THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: APRIL 1997 AND THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX HEARING before the JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ONE HUNDRED FIFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION May 2, 1997 Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON: 1997 eo 41-7o1 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office, Washington, DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-055374-1 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE [Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] House of Representatives Senate JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Chairman CONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman DONALD MANZULLO, Illinois WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware MARK SANFORD, South Carolina ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah MAC THORNBERRY, Texas ROD GRAMs, Minnesota JOHN DOOLITTLE, California SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas JIM MCCRERY, Louisiana JEFF SESSIONS, Alabama FORTNEY PETE STARK, California JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York CHARLES S. ROBB, Virginia CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director ROBERT KELEHER, ChiefMacro Economist Prepared by VICTORIA L.A. NORCROSS (ii) CONTENTS OPENING STATEMENT OF MEMBERS Opening Statement of Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman ....... I Opening Statement of Representative Mac Thornberry ..... ...... 9 Opening Statement of Representative Carolyn B. Maloney ....... 26 WITNESS Statement of the Honorable Katharine G. Abraham, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accompanied by Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner for Prices and Living Conditions; and Phil Rones, Assistant Commissioner of Current Employment Analysis . 3 SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD Prepared Statement of Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman, together with Press Releases Nos. 105-34, 105-39; and Joint Economic Committee studies: "The Consumer Price Index and Public Policy", December 1996 and "The Consumer Price Index and Tax Policy", March 1997 ....................................... 31 Prepared Statement of Commissioner Abraham, together with Press Release No. 97-148 entitled, "The Employment Situation: April 1997," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, Friday,May 2, 1997, Consumer Prince Index Issues and Plans together with attachments .......................................... 41 Letter to Chairman Saxton from Commissioner Abraham ........ 86 Prepared Statement of Representative Carolyn B. Maloney ..... 111 Letter from Representative Maloney to Commissioner Abraham, May 20, 1997 ....................................... 113 Response to Representative Maloney's letter from Commissioner Abraham ........................................... 115 (iii) THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: APRIL 1997 AND THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Friday, May 2,1997 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, WASHINGTON, D.C. The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:32 a.m., in Room 1334, Longworth House Office Building, the Honorable Jim Saxton, Chairman of the Committee presiding. Present: Representatives Saxton, Thornberry and Maloney. Staff Present: Christopher Frenze, Mary Hewitt, Amy Pardo, Roni Singleton, Meredith Aber, Victoria Norcross, Nita Morgan, Howard Rosen and John Blair. OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE JIM SAXTON, CHAIRMAN Representative Saxton. Good morning. As always, it is a pleasure to welcome Commissioner Abraham before the Joint Economic Committee. We are glad you are back with us. And once again, Commissioner Abraham brings good news. According to the household survey, 209,000 jobs were added in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent, the lowest it has been in some time. Employment growth as measured by the payroll survey is somewhat softer than expected, posting an increase of 142,000 jobs. The business cycle expansion continues to provide output and employment gains with no evidence of a significant slowdown in the near future. Unfortunately, the recent release of data on middle class earnings continue to show stagnation through the first quarter of 1997. As I pointed out last week, another benefit of the sustained expansion has been the marked improvement in the budget situation. The strong 2 economy has produced strong revenue growth, and this is pushing the projected 1997 deficit down far below official projections. It now appears that the 1997 deficit - and this is extremely good news - may fall below $70 billion. Obviously, this is occurring because of expansion in the economy; and this is something that I think we should all take note of because, for at least a decade, there have been those of us who have said continually that the way to solve the deficit problem, in large part, is to see expansion in the economy, which in turn produces expansion in Federal revenues; and as a result of that concept, we may be seeing a deficit in 1997 as low as $70 billion, again primarily because of economic expansion. The sustained business cycle upswing has brought a solid economic situation with strong output and employment growth and a rapidly improving near-term budget outlook. Moreover, the low inflation climate produced by the Federal Reserve's disinflation policy demonstrates that price stability is an important foundation for sustained economic growth. The experience over the last two decades shows that low inflation leads to job growth and low unemployment. Just as in the late 1970s, it proved that high and accelerating inflation can lead to high unemployment. The strong employment and economic growth over the last two quarters is a very positive development. Moreover, there is no real evidence of accelerating inflation in price indices, measured commodity prices or the value of the dollar. While the Federal Reserve has done an excellent job in keeping inflation low, I have voiced concerns in recent months that it may be tending to view the current economic strength as potentially inflationary, and it is my belief that that is not necessarily so. Though there is agreement that price stability should be the ultimate objective, our research here at the JEC suggests that price stability should be implemented using inflation targets based on broad price indices. In the absence of inflation, shown in these indices or forward-looking inflation measures, I do not believe that strong economic growth is itself 3 inflationary or is a justification for increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The time data on the unemployment cost index and average hourly earnings, released by BLS this week, lend further support to this view. I will, Dr. Abraham, have some other comments and questions a little bit later on, but perhaps my colleague - does not have an opening statement. And when Mrs. Maloney arrives in a few minutes, she may have an opening statement as well. But in the meantime, Dr. Abraham, we are extremely grateful that you are here with us again this month. Again, as I said earlier, there is good economic news, and so we shall be interested to hear your comments this morning. [The prepared statement of Representative Jim Saxton together with press releases and Joint Economic Committee studies appear in the Submissions for the Record.] STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS ACCOMPANIED BY KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER FOR PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS; AND PHIL RONES, ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER OF CURRENT EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Ms. Abraham. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As always, I appreciate the opportunity to be here to talk about the economic data we have to report. As you have noted, unemployment declined in April, and nonfarm payroll employment rose. The unemployment rate dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point to 4.9 percent. Over the prior 10 months, the rate had remained in a narrow range from 5.2 to 5.4 percent. Payroll employment increased by 142,000 in April, which is about the same as the gain in March, as revised, but well below the growth realized in January and February. Unfavorable weather during the survey reference periods dampened construction hiring in both March and April. In April, employment in the services industry increased by 93,000. There were relatively large over-the-month gains in health services, 4 social services and engineering and management services. Job growth in computer and data processing services continued at its steady pace. In all these industries, employment has been on an upward trend for many years. Partly offsetting these increases in April was a decline in amusement and recreation services. Help-supply services showed virtually no change in employment in April. Although this industry has been a major contributor to job growth during the six years of the current economic expansion, gains since last August have been both more modest and more sporadic. In April, each of the major components of finance, insurance, and real estate added jobs, and employment also continued to rise in transportation and communications. In retail trade, a gain in eating and drinking places was partly offset by a decline in general merchandise stores. In manufacturing, employment declined by 14,000 over the month, reflecting in part a strike in auto manufacturing and some temporary shutdowns for inventory control in that industry. From September to March, factories had added 75,000 jobs. In April, growth continued in industrial machinery, fabricated metals and aircraft. Also, I might note, overall manufacturing hours, however, rose to match its post-World
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