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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: the Unmaking of America: a Recent History
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America: A Recent History Introduction xiv “If infectious greed is the virus” Kurt Andersen, “City of Schemes,” The New York Times, Oct. 6, 2002. xvi “run of pedal-to-the-medal hypercapitalism” Kurt Andersen, “American Roulette,” New York, December 22, 2006. xx “People of the same trade” Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, ed. Andrew Skinner, 1776 (London: Penguin, 1999) Book I, Chapter X. Chapter 1 4 “The discovery of America offered” Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy In America, trans. Arthur Goldhammer (New York: Library of America, 2012), Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “A new science of politics” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “The inhabitants of the United States” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Chapter XVIII. 5 “there was virtually no economic growth” Robert J Gordon. “Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds.” Policy Insight No. 63. Centre for Economic Policy Research, September, 2012. --Thomas Piketty, “World Growth from the Antiquity (growth rate per period),” Quandl. 6 each citizen’s share of the economy Richard H. Steckel, “A History of the Standard of Living in the United States,” in EH.net (Economic History Association, 2020). --Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.W. Norton, 2016), p. 98. 6 “Constant revolutionizing of production” Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx, Manifesto of the Communist Party (Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1969), Chapter I. 7 from the early 1840s to 1860 Tomas Nonnenmacher, “History of the U.S. -
2021 Leg Agenda February 12
LEGISLATIVE COMMITTEE MEETING Committee Members Mayor Pro Tem Michael A. Cacciotti, Chair Council Member Joe Buscaino, Vice Chair Dr. William A. Burke Senator Vanessa Delgado (Ret.) Supervisor V. Manuel Perez Supervisor Janice Rutherford February 12, 2021 9:00 a.m. Pursuant to Governor Newsom’s Executive Orders N-25-20 (March 12, 2020) and N-29-20 (March 17, 2020), the South Coast AQMD Legislative Committee meeting will only be conducted via video conferencing and by telephone. Please follow the instructions below to join the meeting remotely. INSTRUCTIONS FOR ELECTRONIC PARTICIPATION AT BOTTOM OF AGENDA Join Zoom Webinar Meeting - from PC or Laptop https://scaqmd.zoom.us/j/99574050701 Zoom Webinar ID: 995 7405 0701 (applies to all) Teleconference Dial In +1 669 900 6833 One tap mobile +16699006833,, 99574050701# Audience will be able to provide public comment through telephone or Zoom connection during public comment periods. PUBLIC COMMENT WILL STILL BE TAKEN AGENDA Members of the public may address this body concerning any agenda item before or during consideration of that item (Gov't. Code Section 54954.3(a)). If you wish to speak, raise your hand on Zoom or press Star 9 if participating by telephone. All agendas for regular meetings are posted at South Coast AQMD Headquarters, 21865 Copley Drive, Diamond Bar, California, at least 72 hours in advance of the regular meeting. Speakers may be limited to three (3) minutes each. South Coast AQMD -2- February 12, 2021 Legislative Committee CALL TO ORDER - Roll Call DISCUSSION ITEMS (Items 1 through 2): 1. Update and Discussion on Federal Legislative Issues Gary Hoitsma (No Motion Required) Carmen Group Consultants will provide a brief oral report of Federal legislative pgs 5-12 activities in Washington DC. -
Are Public Sector Workers Paid More Than Their Alternative Wage? Evidence from Longitudinal Data and Job Queues
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: When Public Sector Workers Unionize Volume Author/Editor: Richard B. Freeman and Casey Ichniowski, eds. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-26166-2 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/free88-1 Publication Date: 1988 Chapter Title: Are Public Sector Workers Paid More Than Their Alternative Wage? Evidence from Longitudinal Data and Job Queues Chapter Author: Alan B. Krueger Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7910 Chapter pages in book: (p. 217 - 242) 8 Are Public Sector Workers Paid More Than Their Alternative Wage? Evidence from Longitudinal Data and Job Queues Alan B. Krueger Several academic researchers have addressed the issue of whether federal government workers are paid more than comparable private sector workers. In general, these studies use cross-sectional data to estimate the differential in wages between federal and private sector workers, controlling for observed worker characteristics such as age and education. (Examples are Smith 1976, 1977 and Quinn 1979.) This literature typically finds that wages are 10-20 percent greater for federal workers than private sector workers, all else constant. In conflict with the findings of academic studies, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s of- ficial wage comparability survey consistently finds that federal workers are paid less than private sector workers who perform similar jobs.’ Moreover, the government’s findings have been confirmed by an in- dependent study by Hay Associates (1984). Additional research is needed to resolve this conflict. When the focus turns to state and local governments, insignificant differences in pay are generally found between state and local govern- ment employees and private sector employees. -
For Immediate Release: April 8, 2020 Contact: Emma Wells, [email protected], 215–622–8623
For Immediate Release: April 8, 2020 Contact: Emma Wells, [email protected], 215–622–8623 PENNINGTON, N.J., Apr.---Cecilia Rouse sworn in as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers to President Biden On March 12, Cecilia Rouse was sworn in as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) by Vice President Kamala Harris. Rouse was a member of the Pennington School Board of Trustees from 2017 until March 2021, Pennington’s 2020 Commencement speaker, and is a current Pennington School parent. Rouse was nominated by President Joe Biden in December to lead the CEA, an agency within the Executive Office of the President of the United States that is charged with offering the President objective economic advice on the formulation of both domestic and international economic policy. The Council bases its recommendations and analysis on economic research and empirical evidence, using the best data available to support the President in setting the nation’s economic policy. Rouse previously served on the CEA under President Obama, and will be only the fourth woman, and first Black, to lead this agency. Rouse is the former dean of Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs. She writes, “This is a moment of urgency and opportunity unlike anything we’ve faced in modern times. The urgency of ending a devastating crisis. And the opportunity to build a better economy in its wake—an economy that works for everyone, and leaves no one to fall through the cracks.” The Pennington School is an independent coeducational school for students in grades 6 through 12, in both day and boarding programs. -
Ten Nobel Laureates Say the Bush
Hundreds of economists across the nation agree. Henry Aaron, The Brookings Institution; Katharine Abraham, University of Maryland; Frank Ackerman, Global Development and Environment Institute; William James Adams, University of Michigan; Earl W. Adams, Allegheny College; Irma Adelman, University of California – Berkeley; Moshe Adler, Fiscal Policy Institute; Behrooz Afraslabi, Allegheny College; Randy Albelda, University of Massachusetts – Boston; Polly R. Allen, University of Connecticut; Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland; Alice H. Amsden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Robert M. Anderson, University of California; Ralph Andreano, University of Wisconsin; Laura M. Argys, University of Colorado – Denver; Robert K. Arnold, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy; David Arsen, Michigan State University; Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Alice Audie-Figueroa, International Union, UAW; Robert L. Axtell, The Brookings Institution; M.V. Lee Badgett, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Ron Baiman, University of Illinois – Chicago; Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research; Drucilla K. Barker, Hollins University; David Barkin, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana – Unidad Xochimilco; William A. Barnett, University of Kansas and Washington University; Timothy J. Bartik, Upjohn Institute; Bradley W. Bateman, Grinnell College; Francis M. Bator, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Sandy Baum, Skidmore College; William J. Baumol, New York University; Randolph T. Beard, Auburn University; Michael Behr; Michael H. Belzer, Wayne State University; Arthur Benavie, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill; Peter Berg, Michigan State University; Alexandra Bernasek, Colorado State University; Michael A. Bernstein, University of California – San Diego; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute; Rari Bhandari, University of California – Berkeley; Melissa Binder, University of New Mexico; Peter Birckmayer, SUNY – Empire State College; L. -
Curriculum Vitae Michael Joseph Piore
CURRICULUM VITAE MICHAEL JOSEPH PIORE PERSONAL Addresses: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics 50 Memorial Drive, Room E52-271c Cambridge, MA 02142 USA (617) 253-3377 295 Beacon Street, #62 Boston, MA 02116 (617) 266-8247 Date of Birth: August 14, 1940 Place of Birth: New York City EDUCATION Harvard University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences Ph.D. in Economics (Special Field: Labor), September 1966. Harvard College, B.A., Magna Cum Laude, in Economics, June 1962. Riverdale Country School, High School Diploma, June, 1958. ACADEMIC HONORS Honorary Doctorate (Docteur HONORIS CAUSA), Universite des Science et Technologies de Lille Phi Beta Kappa Visiting Scholar 1988-1989 MacArthur Foundation Fellow 1984-1989 Honorary Woodrow Wilson Fellowship 1962-1963 Phi Beta Kappa 1962 John Harvard Scholarship 1960-1961 Detur Prize 1960 Harvard College Scholarship 1959-1960 LANGUAGES French, Spanish EMPLOYMENT David W. Skinner Professor of Political Economy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July, 1997 to present. Director, MIT-Mexico Program, MIT Center for International Studies, 2003-present. Associate Director, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development, MIT, 1995-1998. David W. Skinner Professor of Economics and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, January, 1991 to July 1997. Professor, Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 1975 to present. MICHAEL J. PIORE CURRICULUM VITAE NOVEMBER 3, 2010 PAGE 2 OF 11 Mitsui Professor of Contemporary Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1981 to 1986. Associate Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 1970 - June 1975 (on leave, Spring 1975.) Assistant Professor, Labor Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1966-1970 (on leave, Spring 1970 - 1971.) Consultant on Labor, Manpower, and Income Maintenance for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, 1970-1972. -
Uncorrected Transcript
1 CEA-2016/02/11 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION FALK AUDITORIUM THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS: 70 YEARS OF ADVISING THE PRESIDENT Washington, D.C. Thursday, February 11, 2016 PARTICIPANTS: Welcome: DAVID WESSEL Director, The Hutchins Center on Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Senior Fellow, Economic Studies The Brookings Institution JASON FURMAN Chairman The White House Council of Economic Advisers Opening Remarks: ROGER PORTER IBM Professor of Business and Government, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University Panel 1: The CEA in Moments of Crisis: DAVID WESSEL, Moderator Director, The Hutchins Center on Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Senior Fellow, Economic Studies The Brookings Institution ALAN GREENSPAN President, Greenspan Associates, LLC, Former CEA Chairman (Ford: 1974-77) AUSTAN GOOLSBEE Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, The Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, Former CEA Chairman (Obama: 2010-11) PARTICIPANTS (CONT’D): GLENN HUBBARD Dean & Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia Business School Former CEA Chairman (GWB: 2001-03) ALAN KRUEGER Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University, Former CEA Chairman (Obama: 2011-13) ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 2 CEA-2016/02/11 Panel 2: The CEA and Policymaking: RUTH MARCUS, Moderator Columnist, The Washington Post KATHARINE ABRAHAM Director, Maryland Center for Economics and Policy, Professor, Survey Methodology & Economics, The University of Maryland; Former CEA Member (Obama: 2011-13) MARTIN BAILY Senior Fellow and Bernard L. Schwartz Chair in Economic Policy Development, The Brookings Institution; Former CEA Chairman (Clinton: 1999-2001) MARTIN FELDSTEIN George F. -
Alan Stuart Blinder February 2020
CURRICULUM VITAE Alan Stuart Blinder February 2020 Address Department of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs 284 Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544-1021 Phone: 609-258-3358 FAX: 609-258-5398 E-mail: blinder (at) princeton (dot) edu Website : www.princeton.edu/blinder Personal Data Born: October 14, 1945, Brooklyn, New York. Marital Status: married (Madeline Blinder); two sons and four grandchildren Educational Background Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, l97l M.Sc. (Econ.), London School of Economics, 1968 A.B., Princeton University, summa cum laude in economics, 1967. Doctor of Humane Letters (honoris causa), Bard College, 2010 Government Service Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1994-1996. Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers, 1993-1994. Deputy Assistant Director, Congressional Budget Office, 1975. Member, New Jersey Pension Review Committee, 2002-2003. Member, Panel of Economic Advisers, Congressional Budget Office, 2002-2005. Honors Bartels World Affairs Fellow, Cornell University, 2016. Selected as one of 55 “Global Thought Leaders” by the Carnegie Council, 2014. (See http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/studio/thought-leaders/index) Distinguished Fellow, American Economic Association, 2011-. Member, American Philosophical Society, 1996-. Audit Committee, 2003- Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1991-. John Kenneth Galbraith Fellow, American Academy of Political and Social Science, 2009-. William F. Butler Award, New York Association for Business Economics, 2013. 1 Adam Smith Award, National Association for Business Economics, 1999. Visionary Award, Council for Economic Education, 2013. Fellow, National Association for Business Economics, 2005-. Honorary Fellow, Foreign Policy Association, 2000-. Fellow, Econometric Society, 1981-. -
President-Elect Biden Transition: Second Update December 1, 2020
1 RICH FEUER ANDERSON President-elect Biden Transition: Second Update December 1, 2020 TRANSITION Since announcing his Chief of Staff, the COVID-19 Task Force, and members of the agency review teams, President-elect Biden has made weekly announcements regarding senior White PDATE U House staff and Cabinet nominations. We expect an announcement on Director of the National Economic Council (not Senate confirmed) to come shortly, followed by other Cabinet heads in the coming weeks such as Attorney General, Commerce Secretary, HUD Secretary, DOL Secretary and US Trade Representative. Biden has nominated and appointed women to serve in key positions in his Administration, including the nomination of Janet Yellen to be Treasury Secretary. And while Biden continues to build out a Cabinet that “looks like America,” the Congressional Black Caucus, Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus continue to push for additional racial diversity at the Cabinet level.” Key appointments and nominations to the White House Senior Staff and economic and national security teams are included below, many of whom served in the Obama Administration (*). White House Senior Staff: Ron Klain, Chief of Staff* Jen O’Malley Dillon, Deputy Chief of Staff Mike Donilon, Senior Advisor to the President Dana Remus, Counsel to the President* Steve Richetti, Counselor to the President* Julissa Reynoso Pantaleon, Chief of Staff to Dr. Jill Biden* Anthony Bernal, Senior Advisor to Dr. Jill Biden* Cedric Richmond, Senior Advisor to -
Snake-Oil Economics
The second voice is that of the nu- Snake-Oil anced advocate. In this case, economists advance a point of view while recognizing Economics the diversity of thought among reasonable people. They use state-of-the-art theory and evidence to try to persuade The Bad Math Behind the undecided and shake the faith of Trump’s Policies those who disagree. They take a stand without pretending to be omniscient. N. Gregory Mankiw They acknowledge that their intellectual opponents have some serious arguments and respond to them calmly and without vitriol. Trumponomics: Inside the America First The third voice is that of the rah-rah Plan to Revive Our Economy partisan. Rah-rah partisans do not build BY STEPHEN MOORE AND their analysis on the foundation of profes- ARTHUR B. LAFFER. All Points sional consensus or serious studies from Books, 2018, 287 pp. peer-reviewed journals. They deny that people who disagree with them may have hen economists write, they some logical points and that there may be can decide among three weaknesses in their own arguments. In W possible voices to convey their view, the world is simple, and the their message. The choice is crucial, opposition is just wrong, wrong, wrong. because it affects how readers receive Rah-rah partisans do not aim to persuade their work. the undecided. They aim to rally the The first voice might be called the faithful. textbook authority. Here, economists Unfortunately, this last voice is the act as ambassadors for their profession. one the economists Stephen Moore and They faithfully present the wide range Arthur Laffer chose in writing their of views professional economists hold, new book, Trumponomics. -
A Farewell Letter from America Sir Angus Deaton Writes to Us One Last Time CONTENTS
The RES is a learned society and membership organization founded in 1890 to promote economics. We publish two major journals and organise events including an annual conference. We encourage excellence, diversity and inclusion in all activities. Issue no. 193 April 2021 www.res.org.uk | @RoyalEconSoc A Farewell Letter from America Sir Angus Deaton writes to us one last time CONTENTS Inside this issue… APRIL 2021 | ISSUE NO. 193 major shocks to economic activity leave long shadows see page 12 01 THE EDITORIAL 12 THE COVID-19 RECESSION 20 THE WOMEN’S COMMITTEE AND HEALTH Endings and new beginnings: a brief How concrete steps on recruitment introduction to the redesigned April James Banks, Heidi Karjalainen, and could improve the representation of 2021 issue, from the new editor Dame Carol Propper consider how women in economics the Covid-19 recession will influence future health 02 LETTER FROM… 21 THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL The farewell Letter from America by An update on a year in the life of 15 AN UPDATE FROM THE Sir Angus Deaton, reflecting on past the Economic Journal, based on the ECONOMICS NETWORK Letters, and his life and times detailed report for 2020 Alvin Birdi and Caroline Elliott take stock on the pivot to 07 LETTER FROM… HIGHLIGHTS 22 OBITUARIES teaching online, and describe the Highlights from the Letters from ongoing response of the An obituary for Domenico Mario America, chosen by the editor, and Economics Network Nuti, prepared by Joseph Halevi an appreciation from Peter Howells and Peter Kriesler 18 COMMENT 10 PROFILE 23 NEWS