Agricultural Technology, Productivity and Employment: Policies for Poverty Reduction
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View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics Agrekon, Vol 44, No 1 (March 2005) Thirtle, Piesse & Gouse Agricultural technology, productivity and employment: Policies for poverty reduction C Thirtle1, J Piesse2 & M Gouse3 I have cherished the ideal of a democratic and free society in which all persons live together in harmony with equal opportunities. It is an ideal, which I hope to live for, and to see realised. But my lord, if needs be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die. Nelson Mandela, 20th April 1964, Johannesburg Abstract This paper begins by arguing that agricultural economics has an important contribution to make to the economic transition of the new democratic South Africa. Policies are required to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality, but does the work of agricultural economists provide the policy makers with the information necessary to make the correct choices? In this context, we update our recent work on technology, efficiency and productivity in South African agriculture, for both the commercial and smallholder sub-sectors. For the commercial sector, this means extending the total factor productivity index and estimates of the demand for labour. For the smallholder sector, there are new results on the impacts of GM cotton and white maize on output and employment. However, this piecemeal approach treats the two sectors as entirely separate, when they are actually interdependent. Thus, a Ricardian model of dualistic agriculture is used to explain the historical development of dualism in agriculture, especially how the native agriculturalists were impoverished by the colonists. Then this model is adapted to resemble the Harris-Todaro model of urban unemployment is order to represent the present dual agricultural sector. This allows the current policy options to be compared, although real data is needed to estimate the relationships and so the full analysis remains incomplete. 1. Introduction This paper investigates the contribution that agricultural economics needs to make if Nelson Mandela’s ideal is to be realised. Economic apartheid will not end until reasonable opportunities and incomes are available to the mass of 1 Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development, Imperial College London and Extraordinary Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, University of Pretoria. 2 Reader, School of Social Science and Public Policy, King’s College London and Extraordinary Professor, University of Stellenbosch. 3 Researcher, Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, University of Pretoria. 37 Agrekon, Vol 44, No 1 (March 2005) Thirtle, Piesse & Gouse the population rather than being the privilege of the few. Recent data shows that the problems are still enormous. The Labour Force Survey reported by Statistics South Africa put the September 2002 rate of unemployment at 41.8% according to the broad definition (wanting work) and 30.5% by the narrow definition of actively seeking a job. The proportion of the total population classified as living in poverty in 1995 was 50%, but as Table 1 shows, the figure was 70% for the rural population and the disparity between urban and rural dwellers is even more pronounced with respect to access to facilities. There was also a huge racial disparity, with 1% of whites below the poverty line, as compared with 61% of Africans and a pronounced gender bias (May, Woolard & Klasen, 1998). About 60% of female-headed households were poor, as compared with 30% with male heads, but some of this reflects the rural location of a greater proportion of female-headed households. Finally, with respect to inequality, the Gini coefficient is around 0.6, which is as high as the most unequal societies in Latin America (McDonald & Piesse, 1999). Table 1: Rural–urban distribution of poverty and access to basic services (1995) Location Population share (%) Poverty share (%) Poverty rate (%) Rural 50.4 71.6 70.9 Urban 49.6 28.4 28.5 Total 100 100 49.9 In dwelling facilities Service Running water Sanitation Electricity Telephone Urban (%) 74.1 65.5 82.4 48.4 Rural (%) 16.8 10.9 21.1 7.5 Source: McDonald and Piesse (1999), adapted from May, Woolard and Klasen (1998). The next section considers the role of agricultural economists and how we can contribute to poverty reduction. Section three reviews and updates the work on productivity in commercial agriculture with emphasis on maintaining employment as wages rise. In South African agriculture, the existence of a semi-subsistence sector may allow poverty to persist in peaceful coexistence with healthy growth of per capita incomes in the rest of the economy. Thus, section four similarly updates our work on technological change in the semi- subsistence sector, with emphasis on genetically modified crops. Section five considers the issue of dualism, showing that the two agricultural sectors need to be modelled together so that policies can be compared. 2. Why agricultural economics matters Forty years after Mandela’s trial, his ideal is closer to realisation than all but the most optimistic would have expected forty years ago. But as Fidel Castro is supposed to have said after his guerrillas had entered Havana and Batista had 38 Agrekon, Vol 44, No 1 (March 2005) Thirtle, Piesse & Gouse fled, “OK, that was the easy part, now we have the tougher job of running the country”. Within a few years the Cuban economy was in ruins - Che Guevara, may have been a good communist but he was a lousy economist.4 South Africa has also had a revolution, but unless we, as members of LEVSA, do better than Guevara, Mandela’s vision will not become a reality. South Africa is the world’s social science laboratory, so we are in the right place at the right time, with everything to play for. In the European Union, agricultural economists simply add to butter mountains and wine lakes that cripple the taxpayer. In the USA, they increase the exported surpluses that lower world prices and destroy developing country agriculture. However, in South Africa it is the poor majority who will gain most from agricultural growth, which increases the incomes of smallholders. At the same time, growth in the commercial sector leads to lower food prices, benefiting the urban poor. The new South Africa has to succeed in reducing the current levels of unemployment, inequality and poverty as soon as possible, while in the longer run equality of opportunity and economic freedom requires education. 2.1 What do we contribute? What role do agricultural economists play? The stylised facts are quite simple. We obviously generate information on economic relationships. For instance, we estimate price elasticities for inputs and outputs, which should allow policy makers to know what the results of policies such as taxes and minimum wage legislation. But there is another function. The R&D work of agricultural scientists in public institutions (i.e. the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) and the universities) and private companies (such as multinationals like Monsanto and Delta and Pineland) produces new biological, land saving, technologies that increase yields. Mechanical technology, that saves labour, has always been much more the province of private manufacturers, such as the tractor producers. These technologies are taken from the trial plot or the engineering laboratory to the farmers, either by public sector extension agents 4 Guevara served as chief of the Industrial Department of the National Institute of Agrarian Reform, President of the National Bank of Cuba and Minister of Industry, which put him in a fine position to wreck the economy. His performance would not have surprised the Russians, who had a story about the May Day parade. The massive arrays of troops, tanks, guns, rockets and aircraft are followed by a couple of dozen paunchy, shambling middle aged men in business suits. “What on earth are they doing there”, asked a foreign observer and his Russian companion replied, “Ah, those are economists – you cannot imagine their awesome destructive power”. 39 Agrekon, Vol 44, No 1 (March 2005) Thirtle, Piesse & Gouse or company sales staff. This diffusion process imposes further lags and uses further real resources, but hopefully the result is improved productivity. The agricultural economist has no role in this process except evaluation, so we are practically accountants.5 Is this worth doing? We are increasingly sure that it is. We do know that throughout history, nations with accounting systems do better than those without, provided that the accounting system is informative. Michael Lipton (1989) has long argued the reason behind Africa’s failures. The underlying problem has been that the data and measurement of economic performance has been too poor to guide policy.6 2.2 From data, to analysis, to policy: Can we reduce unemployment, inequality and poverty? Data is the input for the measurement of economic activity, followed or accompanied by causal explanation. Griliches (1994) makes the case that even in the USA, data is the constraint limiting progress in the study of R&D and productivity. Given data, the economists have to perform their key function, which is to inform the policy process in order to make it more effective. The economist has no business dictating the goals of economic activity (Robbins, 1935), but still has a role to play in the policy process by ensuring that the policies are efficient in obtaining the democratically identified objectives. This means accurate targeting and attributes such as incentive compatibility. They may also play a role in implementation, for example in extension. But there is no positive marginal product unless there is an improvement in social welfare. Ruttan (1982) makes an issue of articulation. The system is only as good as its weakest link and the segments must fit together.