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Research Staff Publications List

2019 - 2020

Board of Governors of the System

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS

BANKING AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ...... 4

ECONOMETRICS AND STATISTICS ...... 12

ECONOMIC HISTORY ...... 17

ECONOMIC INCLUSION…………………………………………………………………………………..18

FINANCIAL ECONOMICS ...... 20

FINANCIAL MARKETS ...... 25

INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION ...... 30

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS ...... 31

LABOR ECONOMICS…………………………………………………………………………………...…..37

MACROECONOMICS ...... 40

MICROECONOMICS ...... 49

MONETARY ECONOMICS ...... 52

MONETARY POLICY ...... 54

PAYMENT SYSTEMS ...... 58

PUBLIC ECONOMICS ...... 59

REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS ...... 61

3 BANKING AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Acharya, Viral V., Heitor Almeida, Filippo Ippolito, and Ander Pérez-Orive (forthcoming). "Credit Lines and the Liquidity Insurance Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Acharya, Viral, Heitor Almeida, Filippo Ippolito, and Ander Pérez-Orive (2020). "Bank Lines of Credit as Contingent Liquidity: A study of Covenant Violations and Their Implications," Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 44 (October).

Adams, Robert M., and Vitaly M. Bord (2020). "The Effects of the COVID-19 Shutdown on the Consumer Credit Card Market: Revolvers versus Transactors," FEDS Notes 2020-10-21. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Afanasyeva, Elena, and Jochen Gntner (2020). "Bank Market Power and the Risk Channel of Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 111, pp. 118-134.

Agarwal, Sumit, Ricardo Correa, Bernardo Morais, Jessica Roldán, and Claudia Ruiz-Ortega (2020). "Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem: Credit Concentration in Bad Times," International Finance Discussion Papers 1288. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Akin, Ozlem, Nicholas S. Coleman, Christian Fons-Rosen, and José Luis Peydr (forthcoming). "Political Connections and Informed Trading: Evidence from TARP," Financial Management.

An, Xudong, Larry Cordell, and Joseph B. Nichols (2020). "Reputation, Information, and Herding in Credit Ratings: Evidence from CMBS," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, vol. 61, no. 3, pp. 476-504.

Anbil, Sriya, and Angela Vossmeyer (forthcoming). "Liquidity from Two Lending Facilities," Journal of Financial Intermediation.

Anderson, Haelim, Jin-Wook Chang, and Adam Copeland (2020). "The Effect of the Central Bank Liquidity Support during Pandemics: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-050. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Andros, Joseph, Michael Beall, Francis Martinez, Tony Rodrigues, Mary-Frances Styczynski, and Alex Thorp (2019). "Approaches to Estimating Aggregate Demand for Reserve Balances," FEDS Notes 2019-10-17. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Aramonte, Sirio, Seung Jung Lee, and Viktors Stebunovs (forthcoming). "Risk Taking and Low Longer-term Interest Rates: Evidence from the U.S. Syndicated Term Loan Market," Journal of Banking & Finance.

Arseneau, David M. (2020). "Central Bank Communication with a Financial Stability Objective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-087. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

4 Arseneau, David M. (2020). "How Would US Banks Fare in a Negative Environment?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-030r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Arseneau, David M. (forthcoming). "How Would US Banks Fare in a Negative Interest Rate Environment?" International Journal of Central Banking.

Banegas, Ayelen, and Manjola Tase (2020). "Reserve Balances, the Federal Funds Market and Arbitrage in the New Regulatory Framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 118 (September).

Bassett, William, Selva Demiralp, and Nathan Lloyd (2020). "Government Support of Banks and Bank Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 112 (March).

Beck, Thorsten, Samuel Da-Rocha-Lopes, and André F. Silva (forthcoming). "Sharing the Pain? Credit Supply and Real Effects of Bank Bail-ins," Review of Financial Studies.

Benson, David, and Ken Onishi (2020). "Are There Competitive Concerns in "Middle Market" Lending?" FEDS Notes 2020-08-10. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Benson, David, Serafin Grundl, and Richard Windle (2020). "How do Rural and Urban Retail Banking Customers Differ?" FEDS Notes 2020-06-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Berry, Jared, Akber Khan, and Marcelo Rezende (2020). "How Do U.S. Global Systemically Important Banks Lower Their Capital Surcharges?" FEDS Notes 2020-01-31. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bhutta, Neil, Andreas Fuster, and Aurel Hizmo (2020). "Paying Too Much? Price Dispersion in the U.S. Mortgage Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-062. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bhutta, Neil, Jane Dokko, and Hui Shan (forthcoming). "The Depth of Negative Equity and Mortgage Default Decisions," The Journal of Finance.

Bidder, Rhys M., John R. Krainer, and Adam Hale Shapiro (forthcoming). "De-leveraging or De- risking? How Banks Cope With Loss," Review of Economic Dynamics.

Birn, Martin, Olivier de Bandt, Simon Firestone, Matías Gutiérrez Girault, Diana Hancock, Tord Krogh, Hitoshi Mio, Donald P. Morgan, Ajay Palvia, Valerio Scalone, Michael Straughan, Arzu Uluc, Alexander H. von Hafften, and Missaka Warusawitharana (2020). "The Costs and Benefits of Bank Capital--A Review of the Literature," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, vol. 14, no. 4 (April).

Black, Lamont K., John R. Krainer, and Joseph B. Nichols (2020). "Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 11, pp. 5173-5211.

5 Bolen, J. Brandon, Gregory Elliehausen, and Thomas W. Miller Jr. (2020). "Do Consumers Need More Protection From Small-Dollar Lenders? Historical Evidence and a Roadmap for Future Research," Economic Inquiry, vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 1577-1613.

Bowman, David, Chiara Scotti, and Cindy M. Vojtech (2020). "How Correlated is LIBOR with Bank Funding Costs?" FEDS Notes 2020-06-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Brandao-Marques, Luis, Ricardo Correa, and Horacio Sapriza (2020). "Government Support, Regulation, and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 112 (March).

Brownlees, Christian, Ben Chabot, Eric Ghysels, and Christopher Kurz (2020). "Back to the Future: Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures during Historical Bank Runs and the Great Depression," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 113 (April).

Caglio, Cecilia, R. Matthew Darst, and Eric Parolin (2019). "Half-full or Half-empty? Financial Institutions, CDS Use, and Corporate Credit Risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 40 (October).

Calem, Paul, Ricardo Correa, and Seung Jung Lee (2020). "Prudential Policies and Their Impact on Credit in the United States," Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 42 (April).

Canzoneri, Matthew, Behzad Diba, Luca Guerrieri, and Arsenii Mishin (2020). "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements and Implementable Capital Buffer Rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-056. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Carmassi, Jacopo, Sonja Dobkowitz, Johanne Evrard, Laura Parisi, André F. Silva, and Michael Wedow (2020). "Completing the Banking Union with a European Deposit Insurance Scheme: Who is Afraid of Cross-subsidisation?" Economic Policy, vol. 35, no. 101, pp. 41-95.

Chang, Jin-Wook (2019). "Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-083. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chen, Lisa, and Gregory Elliehausen (2020). "The Cost Structure of Consumer Finance Companies and Its Implications for Interest Rates: Evidence from the Federal Reserve Board's 2015 Survey of Finance Companies," FEDS Notes 2020-08-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Choudhary, M. Ali, and Anil K. Jain (2020). "How Public Information Affects Asymmetrically Informed Lenders: Evidence from a Credit Registry Reform," Journal of Development Economics, vol. 143 (March).

Coleman, Nicholas, and Viktors Stebunovs (2019). "Do Negative Interest Rates Explain Low Profitability of European Banks?" FEDS Notes 2019-11-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

6 Correa, Ricardo, and Laurie P. DeMarco (2019). "Dealer Leverage and Exchange Rates: Heterogeneity Across Intermediaries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1262. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Correa, Ricardo, and Linda S. Goldberg (2020). "Bank Complexity, Governance, and Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1287. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Correa, Ricardo, Keshav Garud, Juan M. Londono, and Nathan Mislang (forthcoming). "Sentiment in Central Banks' Financial Stability Reports," Review of Finance.

Correa, Ricardo, Linda Goldberg, and Kevin Lai (2020). "Have the Risk Profiles of Large U.S. Bank Holding Companies Changed?" Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Blog, February 03, 2020).

Correa, Ricardo, Wenxin Du, and Gordon Liao (2020). "U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1289. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Correia, Sergio, Kevin F. Kiernan, Matthew P. Seay, and Cindy M. Vojtech (2020). "Primer on the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) Model: A Top-Down Stress Test Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-015. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Crosignani, Matteo, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva (2020). "Pirates without Borders: The Propagation of Cyberattacks through Firms' Supply Chains," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, No. 937.

Darst, Matthew R., Ehraz Refayet, and Alexandros Vardoulakis (2020). "Banks, Non Banks, and Lending Standards," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-086. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni, Dalida Kadyrzhanova, Camelia Minoiu, and Lev Ratnovski (2020). "Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-040. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

DeMarco, Laurie, Emily Liu, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (2020). "Who Owns U.S. CLO Securities? An Update by Tranche," FEDS Notes 2020-06-25. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dlugosz, Jennifer, Yong Kyu Gam, Radhakrishnan Gopalan, and Janis Skrastins (2020). "Decision- Making Delegation in Banks," SSRN Electronic Journal.

Dmytro, Holod, Yuriy Kitsul, and Gkhan Torna (2020). "Market Risk-based Capital Requirements, Trading Activity, and Bank Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 112 (March).

7 Dumont, Andrew, Amanda Roberts, Curie Chang, Alejandra Lopez-Fernandini, and Ellen Merry (2019). "Perspectives from Main Street: Bank Branch Access in Rural Communities," Rural Community and Economic Development, (November). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Durdu, C. Bora, Alex Martin, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World," IMF Economic Review, vol. 68, pp. 66-107.

Foley-Fisher, Nathan, Borghan Narajabad, and Stéphane Verani (2020). "Self-Fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 128, no. 9, pp. 3520-3569.

Foley-Fisher, Nathan, Gary Gorton, and Stéphane Verani (2020). "The Dynamics of Adverse Selection in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-088. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gertler, Mark, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, and Andrea Prestipino (2020). "Banking Panics as Endogenous Disasters and the Welfare Gains from Macroprudential Policy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol. 110, pp. 463-469.

Gertler, Mark, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, and Andrea Prestipino (2020). "Credit Booms, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, supplement 1, pp. S8-S33.

Gissler, Stefan, Marco Macchiavelli, and Borghan Narajabad (2020). "Private Supply of Safe Assets: Shadow Banks versus Traditional Banks," AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol. 110, pp. 477- 481.

Glancy, David, Robert Kurtzman, and Rebecca Zarutskie (2020). "An Aggregate View of Bank Lending Standards and Demand," FEDS Notes 2020-05-04. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Glancy, David, John Krainer, Robert Kurtzman, and Joseph Nichols (2019). "Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-079. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Glancy, David, Max Gross, and Felicia Ionescu (2020). "How Did Banks Fund C&I Drawdowns at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis?" FEDS Notes 2020-07-31. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gowrisankaran, Gautam, and John Krainer (forthcoming). "Welfare Consequences of ATM Surcharges," RAND Journal of Economics.

Greenwald, Daniel L., John Krainer, and Pascal Paul (2020). "The Credit Line Channel," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020-26.

Gropp, Reint, John Krainer, and Elizabeth Laderman (2019). "Deleveraging and Consumer Credit Supply in the Wake of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 205-251.

8

Hale, Galina, John Krainer, and Erin McCarthy (2020). "Aggregation Level in Stress-Testing Models," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1-46.

Hale, Galina, Tmer Kapan, and Camelia Minoiu (2020). "Shock Transmission Through Cross- Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 10, pp. 4839-4882.

Hancock, Diana (2019). "'Tailoring' Financial Regulations," Policy Research Meeting on Financial Markets and Institutions: Proceedings of the Conference in Memory of Andrea Generale, Rome, 4-5 October 2018, pp. 319-328.

Horvath, Akos, and Peter Lang (forthcoming). "Do Loan Subsidies Boost the Real Activity of Small Firms?" Journal of Banking & Finance.

Horvath, Akos, Benjamin S. Kay, and Carlo Wix (2020). "The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Covid Economics, vol. 36, pp. 129-177.

Infante, Sebastian, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis (2020). "Monitoring Risk From Collateral Runs," FEDS Notes 2020-07-31. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Infante, Sebastian, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis (forthcoming). "Collateral Runs," The Review of Financial Studies.

Ivanov, Ivan, Marco Macchiavelli, and João A. C. Santos (2020). "Bank Lending Networks and the Propagation of Natural Disasters," SSRN Electronic Journal.

Kandrac, John, and Bernd Schlusche (forthcoming). " and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Kandrac, John, and Bernd Schlusche (forthcoming). "The Effect of Bank Supervision and Examination on Risk Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies.

Kara, Gazi I., and S. Mehmet Ozsoy (2020). "Bank Regulation Under Fire Sale Externalities," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 6 pp. 2554-2584.

Kara, Gazi I., and Youngsuk Yook (2019). "Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit," BIS Working Paper No. 820. Bank for International Settlements.

Kashyap, Anil K., Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis (2020). "Optimal Bank Regulation in the Presence of Credit and Run-Risk," NBER Working Paper No. 26689. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Kiernan, Kevin F., and Cindy M. Vojtech (2020). "Assessing the Resiliency of Non-DFAST Banks to a Financial Shock," FEDS Notes 2020-06-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

9 Kim, Kyungmin, Antoine Martin, and Ed Nosal (forthcoming). "Can the U.S. Interbank Market Be Revived?" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Kurtzman, Robert, and David Zeke (2020). "Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pp. 94-126.

Kurtzman, Robert, Stephan Luck, and Tom Zimmermann (forthcoming). "Did QE Lead Banks to Relax Their Lending Standards? Evidence from the Federal Reserve's LSAPs," Journal of Banking & Finance.

Lee, Seung Jung, Kelly E. Posenau, and Viktors Stebunovs (2020). "The Anatomy of Financial Vulnerabilities and Banking Crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 112 (March).

Lee, Seung Jung,, Dan Li, Ralf R. Meisenzahl, and Martin J. Sicilian (2019). "The U.S. Syndicated Term Loan Market: Who Holds What and When?" FEDS Notes 2019-11-25. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Li, Lei, Philip E. Strahan, and Song Zhang (2020). "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Paper No. 27256. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Lopez-Fernandini, Alejandra, and PJ Tabit (2020). "Two Tales of Changes in Retail Banking," Consumer & Community Context, vol. 2, no. 1 (August). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Loudis, Bert, Daniel Nguyen, and Carlo Wix (2020). "Analyzing the Community Bank Leverage Ratio," Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Staff Studies Report No. 2020-03. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Loudis, Bert, Daniel Nguyen, and Carlo Wix (2020). "Analyzing the Community Bank Leverage Ratio," FEDS Notes 2020-05-26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Macchiavelli, Marco, and Luke Pettit (2019). "Shining a Light on the Shadows: Dealer Funding and Internalization," FEDS Notes 2019-12-20. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Macchiavelli, Marco, and Luke Pettit (forthcoming). "Liquidity Regulation and Financial Intermediaries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Migueis, Marco (2019). "Evaluating the AMA and the New Standardized Approach for Operational Risk Capital," Journal of Banking Regulation, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 302-311.

Migueis, Marco (2020). "Regulatory Arbitrage in the Use of Insurance in the New Standardized Approach for Operational Risk Capital," FEDS Notes 2020-03-30. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

10 Nanda, Vikram, Wei Wu, and Xing (Alex) Zhou (2019). "Investment Commonality Across Insurance Companies: Fire Sale Risk and Corporate Yield Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 54, no. 6, pp. 2543-2574.

Passmore, Wayne (2019). "An Overview of G-SIB Capital Surcharges," Policy Research Meeting on Financial Markets and Institutions: Proceedings of the Conference in Memory of Andrea Generale, Rome, 4-5 October 2018, pp. 263-270.

Passmore, Wayne, and Judit Temesvary (2020). "Investor Demands for Safety, Bank Capital, and Liquidity Measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-079. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Rezende, Marcelo, Judit Temesvary, and Rebecca Zarutskie (2019). "Interest on Excess Reserves and U.S. Commercial Bank Lending," FEDS Notes 2019-10-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Rezende, Marcelo, Mary-Frances Styczynski, and Cindy M. Vojtech (forthcoming). "The Effects of Liquidity Regulation on Bank Demand in Monetary Policy Operations," Journal of Financial Intermediation.

Ringo, Daniel (2020). ""Revitalize or Stabilize": Does Community Development Financing Work?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-029. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Sapriza, Horacio, and Judit Temesvary (2020). "Asymmetries in the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in the United States," Economics Letters, vol. 189 (April).

Shan, Chenyu, Dragon Yongjun Tang, Hong Yan, and Xing (Alex) Zhou (forthcoming). "Credit Default Swaps and Bank Regulatory Capital," Review of Finance.

Sharpe, Steven A., and Alex X. Zhou (2020). "The Corporate Bond Market Crises and the Government Response," FEDS Notes 2020-10-07. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Shin, Chaehee, and Maddie White (2020). "Fire-Sale Vulnerabilities of Banks: Bank-Specific Risks under Stress and Credit Drawdowns," FEDS Notes 2020-10-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Silva, André F. (2019). "Strategic Liquidity Mismatch and Financial Sector Stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-082. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Takáts, Előd, and Judit Temesvary (2020). "The Currency Dimension of the Bank Lending Channel in International Monetary Transmission," Journal of International Economics, vol. 125 (July).

van Dijk, Charlene, Barbara Lipman, and PJ Tabit (2019). "Access to Financial Services Matters to Small Businesses," Consumer & Community Context, vol. 1, no. 2 (November). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

11 Vardoulakis, Alexandros P. (2020). "Designing a Main Street Lending Facility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-052. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Vojtech, Cindy M., Benjamin S. Kay, and John C. Driscoll (2020). "The Real Consequences of Bank Mortgage Lending Standards," Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 44 (October).

Wang, Teng (2019). "To Build or to Buy? The Role of Local Information in Credit Market Development," Management Science, vol. 65, no. 12, pp. 5838-5860.

Wang, Teng (2020). "Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-034. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Weiss, Colin R. (2020). "Intermediary Asset Pricing during the National Banking Era," International Finance Discussion Papers 1302. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Yang, Jerry, Ricardo Correa, and Juan M. Londono (2020). "Central Banks' Financial Stability Communications during the COVID-19 Pandemic," FEDS Notes 2020-09-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Yankov, Vladimir (2020). "The Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Corporate Liquidity Management," FEDS Notes 2020-02-26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

ECONOMETRICS AND STATISTICS

Aït-Sahalia, Yacine, and Celso Brunetti (2020). "High Frequency Traders and the Price Process," Journal of Econometrics, vol. 217, no. 1, pp. 20-45.

Afanasyeva, Elena (2020). "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ahn, Hie Joo, and James Hamilton (2020). "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 38, no. 3, pp. 554-569.

Anderson, Gary, and Alena Audzeyeva (2019). "A Coherent Framework for Predicting Emerging Market Credit Spreads with Support Vector Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-074. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Andreasen, Martin M., and Andrew C. Meldrum (2019). "A or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 54, no. 5, pp. 2261-2292.

Ang, Andrew, Jun Liu, and Krista Schwarz (2020). "Using Stocks or Portfolios in Tests of Factor Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 55, no. 3, pp. 709-750.

12 Aruoba, Borağan S., Pablo Cuba-Borda, Kenji Higa-Flores, Frank Schorfheide, and Sergio Villalvazo (2020). "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," International Finance Discussion Papers 1272. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Barigozzi, Matteo, Marco Lippi, and Matteo Luciani (2020). "Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms for Singular Stochastic Vectors," Econometrics, vol. 8, no. 1, (February).

Barigozzi, Matteo, Marco Lippi, and Matteo Luciani (forthcoming). "Large-Dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with I(1) Cointegrated Factors," Journal of Econometrics.

Barro, Robert J., and Gordon Y. Liao (2019). "Tractable Rare Disaster Probability and Options- Pricing," Working Papers (Harvard University).

Benson, David, Matthew A. Masten, and Alexander Torgovitsky (2020). "ivcrc: An Instrumental Variables Estimator for the Correlated Random Coefficients Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-046. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Berge, Travis J. (2020). "Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-012. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Berge, Travis J., Andrew C. Chang, and Nitish R. Sinha (2019). "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 1627-1635.

Berge, Travis, Maarten De Ridder and Damjan Pfajfar (2020). "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bognanni, Mark (2020). "A Forecasting Assessment of Market-Based PCE Inflation," Economic Commentary, 2020-01. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Bognanni, Mark (2020). "Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed Over Time?" Economic Commentary No. 2019-16. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Bognanni, Mark, and John Zito (2019). "Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper, no. 19-29. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Bognanni, Mark, and John Zito (2020). "Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 113 (April).

Bognanni, Mark, Doug Hanley, Daniel Kolliner, and Kurt Mitman (2020). "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-091. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

13 Bowman, David, Chiara Scotti, and Cindy M. Vojtech (2020). "How Correlated is LIBOR with Bank Funding Costs?" FEDS Notes 2020-06-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bricker, Jesse, Peter Hansen, and Alice Henriques Volz (2019). "Wealth Concentration in the U.S. After Augmenting the Upper Tail of the Survey of Consumer Finances," Economics Letters, vol. 184.

Caetano, Carolina, Gregorio Caetano, and Eric Nielsen (2020). "Correcting for Endogeneity in Models with Bunching," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-080. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cai, Michael, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Frank Schorfheide (2020). "Online Estimation of DSGE Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-023. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cai, Michael, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Frank Schorfheide (forthcoming). "Online Estimation of DSGE Models," The Econometrics Journal.

Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz (2020). "Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-030. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz (forthcoming). "Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data, in Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro (eds.). Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, NBER Book Series Studies in Income and Wealth. The University of Chicago Press.

Canzoneri, Matthew, Behzad Diba, Luca Guerrieri, and Arsenii Mishin (2020). "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements and Implementable Capital Buffer Rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-056. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, and Ana Beatriz Galvao (forthcoming). "News and Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Chang, Andrew C., and Phillip Li (forthcoming). "Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say "Often Not"," Critical Finance Review, vol. 10.

Chang, Andrew C., and Trace J. Levinson (2020). "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, and John Coglianese (2020). "Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession," NBER Working Paper No. 27566. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

14 Crane, Leland D., Ryan A. Decker, Aaron Flaaen, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz (2020). "Business Exit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Non-Traditional Measures in Historical Context," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020.089. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Crawley, Edmund (2019). "In Search of Lost Time Aggregation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-075. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cuba-Borda, Pablo, Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, and Molin Zhong (2019). "Likelihood Evaluation of Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 34, no. 7, pp. 1073-1085.

Diavatopoulos, Dean, and Oleg Sokolinskiy (2020). "Stochastic Volatility Models: Faking a Smile," In Cheng Few Lee, and John C. Lee (eds.). Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, and Machine Learning, vol. 2, pp. 1271-1293. New Jersey: World Scientific.

Diercks, Anthony M., Alex Hsu, and Andrea Tamoni (2020). "When it Rains it Pours: Cascading Uncertainty Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-064. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ericsson, Neil R., and Andrew B. Martinez (2019). "Evaluating Government Budget Forecasts," in Williams, Daniel, and Thad Calabrese (eds.). The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting. Palgrave Studies in Public Debt, Spending, and Revenue (pp. 37-69). Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.

Gallin, Joshua H., Raven Molloy, Eric Nielsen, Paul Smith, and Kamila Sommer (forthcoming). "Measuring Aggregate Housing Wealth: New Insights from Machine Learning," Journal of Housing Economics.

González-Astudillo, Manuel (2019). "An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area: Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity," European Economic Review, vol. 120 (November).

González-Astudillo, Manuel, and Daniel Baquero (2019). "A Nowcasting Model for Ecuador: Implementing a Time-Varying Mean Output Growth," Economic Modelling, vol. 82, pp. 250-263.

González-Astudillo, Manuel, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2020). "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gordy, Michael B., and Alexander J. McNeil (2020). "Spectral Backtests of Forecast Distributions with Application to Risk Management," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 116 (July).

Grishchenko, Olesya V., Xiao Han, and Victor Nistor (2020). "A Volatility-of-Volatility Expansion of the Option Prices in the SABR Stochastic Volatility Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, vol. 23, no. 3. (May).

15 Guerrieri, Luca, Dale Henderson, and Jinill Kim (2020). "Interpreting Shocks to the Relative Price of Investment with a Two-Sector Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 82- 98.

Hale, Galina, John Krainer, and Erin McCarthy (2020). "Aggregation Level in Stress-Testing Models," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1-46.

Hall, Hannah, and Eric Nielsen (2020). "How Do Children Spend Their Time? Time Use and Skill Development in the PSID," FEDS Notes 2020-05-26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hansen, Lars Peter, Bálint Szőke, and Lloyd S. Han, and Thomas J. Sargent (2020). "Twisted Probabilities, Uncertainty, and Prices," Journal of Econometrics, vol. 216, no. 1, pp. 151-174.

Herbst, Edward P., and Benjamin K. Johannsen (2020). "Bias in Local Projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-010. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kiley, Michael T. (2020). "What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?" International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 181-210.

Kim, Don H., and Marcel A. Priebsch (2020). "Are Shadow Rate Models of the Treasury Yield Curve Structurally Stable?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-061. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

King, Thomas B., and Kurt F. Lewis (2020). "Credit Risk, Liquidity, and Lies," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 219-267.

Kruttli, Mathias S. (forthcoming). "From Which Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Can Investors Profit? Evidence from Model-Based Priors," Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Lpez-Salido, David, and, Francesca Loria (2019). "Inflation at Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14074. Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Luciani, Matteo (2020). "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," FEDS Notes 2020-03-05. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Luciani, Matteo (2020). "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-024. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Mezza, Alvaro, and Moshe Buchinsky (forthcoming). "Illegal Drugs, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Econometrics.

Nicol, Giovanni (2020). "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Park, Yang-Ho (2020). "Variance Disparity and Market Frictions," Journal of Econometrics, vol. 214, no. 2, pp. 326-348.

16

Pike, Tyler, and Francisco Vazquez-Grande (2019). "Out-of-Sample Performance of Recession Probability Models," FEDS Notes 2019-12-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Puglia, Michael, and Adam Tucker (2020). "Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-038. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Rho, Yeonwoo, Yun Liu, and Hie Joo Ahn (2020). "Revealing Cluster Structures Based on Mixed Sampling Frequencies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-082. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Rogers, John, and Jiawen Xu (2019). "How Well Does Economic Uncertainty Forecast Economic Activity?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-085. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Sharpe, Steven A., Nitish R. Sinha, and Christopher A. Hollrah (2020). "The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-001. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Shin, Minchul, and Molin Zhong (2020). "A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 367-379.

Smith, Simon C. (2020). "Equity Premium Prediction and Structural Breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 412-429.

Smith, Simon C., and Allan Timmermann (forthcoming). "Break Risk," The Review of Financial Studies.

Smith, Simon C., George Bulkley, and David S. Leslie (2020). "Equity Premium Forecasts with an Unknown Number of Structural Breaks," Journal of Financial Econometrics, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 59- 94.

ECONOMIC HISTORY

Anbil, Sriya, Mark Carlson, Christopher Hanes, and David C. Wheelock (2020). "A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-1954," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-059. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Anderson, Haelim, Jin-Wook Chang, and Adam Copeland (2020). "The Effect of the Central Bank Liquidity Support during Pandemics: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-050. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Brownlees, Christian, Ben Chabot, Eric Ghysels, and Christopher Kurz (2020). "Back to the Future: Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures during Historical Bank Runs and the Great Depression," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 113 (April).

17

Figinski, Theodore F., and Erin Troland (2020). "Health Insurance and Hospital Supply: Evidence from 1950s Coal Country," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-033. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Nelson, Edward (2020). " and Economic Debate in the United States, 1932-1972, Volume 1." Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2020.

Nelson, Edward (2020). "Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States, 1932-1972, Volume 2." Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2020.

Peterman, William B., and Kamila Sommer (2019). "A Historical Welfare Analysis of Social Security: Whom Did the Program Benefit?" Quantitative Economics, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 1357- 1399.

Weiss, Colin (2020). "Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878-1900," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 102, no. 4, pp. 705-720.

Weiss, Colin R. (2020). "Intermediary Asset Pricing during the National Banking Era," International Finance Discussion Papers 1302. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

ECONOMIC INCLUSION

Albertus, James F., and Michael Smolyansky (2019). "Does Intergenerational Mobility Increase Corporate Profits?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-081. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Barth, Daniel, Nicholas W. Papageorge, and Kevin Thom (2020). "Genetic Endowments and Wealth Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 128, no. 4, pp. 1474-1522.

Bhutta, Neil, and Aurel Hizmo (2020). "Do Minorities Pay More for Mortgages?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-007. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bhutta, Neil, and Aurel Hizmo (forthcoming). "Do Minorities Pay More for Mortgages?" The Review of Financial Studies.

Bhutta, Neil, Andrew C. Chang, Lisa J. Dettling, and Joanne W. Hsu (2020). "Disparities in Wealth by Race and Ethnicity in the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances," FEDS Notes 2020-09-28. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bricker, Jesse, Jacob Krimmel, and Rodney Ramcharan (forthcoming). "Signaling Status: The Impact of Relative Income on Household Consumption and Financial Decisions," Management Science.

18 Burkhauser, Richard V., Kevin Corinth, James Elwell, and Jeff Larrimore (2020). "Evaluating the Success of President Johnson's War on Poverty: Revisiting the Historical Record Using a Full- Income Poverty Measure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-011. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cair, Isabel, and Jae Sim (2020). "Market Power, Inequality, and Financial Instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-057. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner, and Danny Yagan (2020). "Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 135, no. 3, pp. 1567-1633.

Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner, and Danny Yagan (2020). "The Determinants of Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility: Using Test Scores to Measure Undermatching," NBER Working Paper No. 26748. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cumming, Fergus, and Lisa Dettling (2020). "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-002. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Falcettoni, Elena, and Vegard M. Nygaard (2020). "A Comparison of Living Standards Across the States of America," FEDS Notes 2020-05-28. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Falcettoni, Elena, and Vegard M. Nygaard (2020). "A Comparison of Living Standards Across the States of America," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-041. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ferraro, Domenico, and Giuseppe Fiori (2020). "The Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 167-193.

Goodman, Sarena, Alvaro Mezza, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "On Intergenerational Immobility: Evidence that Adult Credit Health Reflects the Childhood Environment," Economic Inquiry, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 780-801.

Hall, Hannah, and Eric Nielsen (2020). "How Do Children Spend Their Time? Time Use and Skill Development in the PSID," FEDS Notes 2020-05-26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Larrimore, Jeff, Jacob Mortenson, and David Splinter (2020) "Presence and Persistence of Poverty in U.S. Tax Data," NBER Working Paper No. 26966. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

19 Morse, Adair, and Karen Pence (2020). "Technological Innovation and Discrimination in Household Finance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-018. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Morse, Adair, and Karen Pence (2020). "Technological Innovation and Discrimination in Household Finance," NBER Working Paper No. 26739. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Sabelhaus, John, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Social Security Wealth, Inequality, and Lifecycle Saving," NBER Working Paper No. 27110. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Sabelhaus, John, and Alice Henriques Volz (forthcoming). "Social Security Wealth, Inequality, and Lifecycle Saving," in Measuring and Understanding the Distribution and Intra/Inter- Generational Mobility of Income and Wealth. NBER Book Series Studies in Income and Wealth. The University of Chicago Press.

Turner, Nick, Kaveh Danesh, and Kelsey Moran (2020). "The Evolution of Infant Mortality Inequality in the United States, 1960-2016," Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 29 (July). van Dijk, Charlene, Barbara Lipman, and PJ Tabit (2019). "Access to Financial Services Matters to Small Businesses," Consumer & Community Context, vol. 1, no. 2 (November). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Zabek, Mike (2019). "Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-080. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

FINANCIAL ECONOMICS

Ajello, Andrea, Luca Benzoni, and Olena Chyruk (2020). "Core and 'Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 8, pp. 3719- 3765.

Anadu, Kenechukwu, Mathias Kruttli, Patrick McCabe, and Emilio Osambela (2020). "The Shift from Active to Passive Investing: Potential Risks to Financial Stability?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-060r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Anadu, Kenechukwu, Mathias Kruttli, Patrick McCabe, and Emilio Osambela (2020). "The Shift from Active to Passive Investing: Potential Risks to Financial Stability?" Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 76, no. 4, pp. 23-39.

Andrés, Javier, José E. Boscá, Javier Ferri, and Cristina Fuentes-Albero (2020). "Household's Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018- 012r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Andrés, Javier, José E. Boscá, Javier Ferri, and Cristina Fuentes-Albero (forthcoming). "Households' Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

20

Aramonte, Sirio, and Paweš‚ J. Szerszeń (forthcoming). "Cross-Market Liquidity and Dealer Profitability: Evidence from the Bond and CDS Markets," Journal of Financial Markets.

Arteta, Carlos, Mark Carey, Ricardo Correa, and Jason Kotter (2020). "Revenge of the Steamroller: ABCP as a Window on Risk Choices," Review of Finance, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 497-528.

Barro, Robert J., and Gordon Y. Liao (2019). "Tractable Rare Disaster Probability and Options- Pricing," Working Papers (Harvard University).

Barro, Robert J., and Gordon Y. Liao (forthcoming). "Rare Disaster Probability and Options- Pricing," Journal of Financial Economics.

Begenaua, Juliane, and Berardino Palazzo (forthcoming). "Firm Selection and Corporate Cash Holdings," Journal of Financial Economics.

Bekaert, Geert, Eric Engstrom, and Andrey Ermolov (forthcoming). "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Economics.

Bhutta, Neil, Andreas Fuster, and Aurel Hizmo (2020). "Paying Too Much? Price Dispersion in the U.S. Mortgage Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-062. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bhutta, Neil, Jesse Bricker, Lisa Dettling, Jimmy Kelliher, and Steven Laufer (forthcoming). "Stress Testing Household Debt," The Journal of Credit Risk.

Bochner, Jacob, Min Wei, and Jie Yang (2020). "What Drove Recent Trends in Corporate Bonds and Loans Usage?" FEDS Notes 2020-10-23. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Brancati, Emanuele, and Marco Macchiavelli (2020). "Endogenous Debt Maturity and Rollover Risk," Financial Management, vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 69-90.

Brown, James R., Matthew Gustafson, and Ivan Ivanov (forthcoming). "Weathering Cash Flow Shocks," The Journal of Finance.

Caglio, Cecilia, R. Matthew Darst, and Eric Parolin (2019). "Half-full or Half-empty? Financial Institutions, CDS Use, and Corporate Credit Risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 40 (October).

Carapella, Francesca, and Cyril Monnet (forthcoming). "Dealers' Insurance, Market Structure, and Liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics.

Carlson, Mark, and Marco Macchiavelli (2020). “Emergency Loans and Collateral Upgrades: How Broker-Dealers Used Federal Reserve Credit During the 2008 Financial Crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 137, no. 3 pp. 701-722.

21 Carlson, Mark, Stefania D'Amico, Cristina Fuentes-Albero, Bernd Schlusche, and Paul Wood (2020). "Issues in the Use of the Balance Sheet Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-071. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cestau, Dario, Burton Hollifield, Dan Li, and Norman Schrhoff (2019). "Municipal Bond Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, vol. 11, pp. 65-84.

Chang, Jin-Wook (2019). "Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-083. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chen, Andrew Y., Fabian Winkler, and Rebecca Wasyk (forthcoming). "Full-Information Examinations of Long-Run Risks and Habit," Critical Finance Review.

Chen, Lisa, and Gregory Elliehausen (2020). "The Cost Structure of Consumer Finance Companies and Its Implications for Interest Rates: Evidence from the Federal Reserve Board's 2015 Survey of Finance Companies," FEDS Notes 2020-08-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Colonnello, Stefano, Matthias Efing, and Francesca Zucchi (2019). "Shareholder Bargaining Power and the Emergence of Empty Creditors," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 134, no. 2, pp. 297-317.

Correia, Sergio, Kevin F. Kiernan, Matthew P. Seay, and Cindy M. Vojtech (2020). "Primer on the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) Model: A Top-Down Stress Test Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-015. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cortés, Kristle R., Yuliya Demyanyk, Lei Li, Elena Loutskina, and Philip E. Strahan (2020). "Stress Tests and Small Business Lending," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 136, no. 1, pp. 260-279.

de Ferra, Sergio, and Enrico Mallucci (2020). "Avoiding Sovereign Default Contagion: A Normative Analysis," FEDS Notes 2020-09-21. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Della Seta, Marco, Erwan Morellec, and Francesca Zucchi (2020). "Short-Term Debt and Incentives for Risk-Taking," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 137, no. 1, pp. 179-203.

Edge, Rochelle M., and J. Nellie Liang (2020). "Financial Stability Committees and Basel III Macroprudential Capital Buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-016. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Falato, Antonio, Itay Goldstein, and Ali Hortaçsu (2020). "Financial Fragility in the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets," NBER Working Paper No. 27559. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Favara, Giovanni, Janet Gao, and Mariassunta Giannetti (forthcoming). "Uncertainty, Access to Debt, and Firm Precautionary Behavior," Journal of Financial Economics.

22 Goldberg, Jonathan (2020). "Liquidity Supply by Broker-Dealers and Real Activity," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 136, no. 3, pp. 806-827.

Goldberg, Jonathan (forthcoming). "Risk Shocks, Risk Management, and Investment," Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Goldberg, Jonathan E., and Yoshio Nozawa (forthcoming). "Liquidity Supply in the Corporate Bond Market," The Journal of Finance.

Gordy, Michael B., and Alexander J. McNeil (2020). "Spectral Backtests of Forecast Distributions with Application to Risk Management," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 116 (July).

Gropp, Reint, John Krainer, and Elizabeth Laderman (2019). "Deleveraging and Consumer Credit Supply in the Wake of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 205-251.

Gustafson, Matthew, Ivan Ivanov, and Ralf R. Meisenzahl (forthcoming). "Bank Monitoring: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Journal of Financial Economics. Infante, Sebastian (2020). "Private Money Creation with Safe Assets and Term Premia," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 136, no. 3, pp. 828-856.

Infante, Sebastian, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis (2020). "Monitoring Risk From Collateral Runs," FEDS Notes 2020-07-31. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Infante, Sebastian, Charles Press, and Zack Saravay (2020). "Understanding Collateral Re-use in the US Financial System," AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol. 110, pp. 482-486.

Jiang, Jiajun, Qi Liu, and Bo Sun (2020). "Investor Sentiment and the (Discretionary) Accrual- return Relation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1300. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Johnson, Travis L., and Nathan Swem (2020). "Reputation and Investor Activism: A Structural Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-036r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Johnson, Travis L., and Nathan Swem (forthcoming). "Reputation and Investor Activism: A Structural Approach," Journal of Financial Economics.

Kandrac, John, and Bernd Schlusche (forthcoming). "The Effect of Bank Supervision and Examination on Risk Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies.

King, Thomas B., and Kurt F. Lewis (2020). "Credit Risk, Liquidity, and Lies," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 219-267.

King, Thomas, Travis D. Nesmith, Anna Paulson, and Todd Prono (2020). "Central Clearing and Systemic Liquidity Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-009. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

23

Klee, Elizabeth (forthcoming). "The First Line of Defense: The Discount Window During the Early Stages of the Financial Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking.

Kronlund, Mathias, Veronika K. Pool, Clemens Sialm, and Irina Stefanescu (2020). "Out of Sight No More? The Effect of Fee Disclosures on 401(k) Investment Allocations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-078. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kyle, Albert S., Anna A. Obizhaeva, and Tugkan Tuzun (2020). "Microstructure Invariance in U.S. Stock Market Trades," Journal of Financial Markets, vol. 49 (June).

Lewis, Kurt F., Francis A. Longstaff, and Lubomir Petrasek (forthcoming). "Asset Mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics.

Li, Yi (forthcoming). "Reciprocal Lending Relationships in Shadow Banking," Journal of Financial Economics.

Liao, Gordon Y. (forthcoming). “Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Financial Economics.

Medhat, Mamdouh, and Berardino Palazzo (2020). "Equity Financing Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-037. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Migueis, Marco (2020). "Regulatory Arbitrage in the Use of Insurance in the New Standardized Approach for Operational Risk Capital," FEDS Notes 2020-03-30. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Migueis, Marco, and Alexander Jiron (2020). "SRISKv2 - A Note," FEDS Notes 2020-09-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Norden, Lars, Gregory F. Udell, and Teng Wang (2020). "Do Bank Bailouts Affect the Provision of Trade Credit?" Journal of Corporate Finance, vol. 60 (February).

Oh, Hyunseung, and Chamna Yoon (2020). “Time to Build and the Real-Options Channel of Residential Investment," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 135, no. 1, pp. 255-269.

O'Hara, Maureen, and Xing (Alex) Zhou (forthcoming). "Anatomy of a Liquidity Crisis: Corporate Bonds in the Covid-19 Crisis," Journal of Financial Economics.

O'Hara, Maureen, and Xing (Alex) Zhou (forthcoming). "The Electronic Evolution of Corporate Bond Dealers," Journal of Financial Economics.

Palazzo, Dino, and Jie Yang (2019). "Spike in 2019Q1 Leverage Ratios: The Impact of Operating Leases," FEDS Notes 2019-12-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Passmore, Wayne, and Judit Temesvary (2020). "Investor Demands for Safety, Bank Capital, and Liquidity Measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-079. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

24

Ronen, Tavy, Oleg Sokolinskiy, and Ben Sopranzetti (2020). "The Risk Management Implications of Using End of Day Consensus Pricing for Single Name CDS," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 269-304.

Scherbina, Anna, and Bernd Schlusche (2020). "Follow the Leader: Using the Stock Market to Uncover Information Flows Between Firms," Review of Finance, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 189-225.

Sharpe, Steven A., and Gustavo A. Suarez (forthcoming). "Why Isn't Business Investment More Sensitive to Interest Rates? Evidence from Surveys," Management Science.

Shin, Chaehee, and Maddie White (2020). "Fire-Sale Vulnerabilities of Banks: Bank-Specific Risks under Stress and Credit Drawdowns," FEDS Notes 2020-10-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Silva, André F. (2019). "Strategic Liquidity Mismatch and Financial Sector Stability," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 32, no. 12, pp. 4696-4733.

von Beschwitz, Bastian, and Massimo Massa (2020). "Biased Shorts: Short Sellers' Disposition Effect and Limits to Arbitrage," Journal of Financial Markets, vol. 49 (June).

Yankov, Vladimir (2020). "The Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Corporate Liquidity Management," FEDS Notes 2020-02-26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

FINANCIAL MARKETS

Akcigit, Ufuk, and Sina T. Ates (2020). "What Happened to U.S. Business Dynamism?" FEDS Notes 2020-02-14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Akcigit, Ufuk, Harun Alp, and Michael Peters (forthcoming). "Lack of Selection and Limits to Delegation: Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries," American Economic Review.

Anadu, Kenechukwu, Mathias Kruttli, Patrick McCabe, and Emilio Osambela (2020). "The Shift from Active to Passive Investing: Potential Risks to Financial Stability?" Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 76, no. 4, pp. 23-39.

Anbil, Sriya, Alyssa Anderson, and Zeynep Senyuz (2020). "What Happened in Money Markets in September 2019?" FEDS Notes 2020-02-27. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Andreasen, Martin M., and Kasper Jrgensen (2020). "The Importance of Timing Attitudes in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 111, pp. 95-117.

Ang, Andrew, Jun Liu, and Krista Schwarz (2020). "Using Stocks or Portfolios in Tests of Factor Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 55, no. 3, pp. 709-750.

Aramonte, Sirio, and Paweł J. Szerszeń (forthcoming). "Cross-Market Liquidity and Dealer Profitability: Evidence from the Bond and CDS Markets," Journal of Financial Markets.

25 Aramonte, Sirio, Chiara Scotti, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "Measuring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 143-178.

Aramonte, Sirio, Chiara Scotti, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "Monitoring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds," FEDS Notes 2020-05-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Aronovich, Alex, and Andrew Meldrum (2020). "New Financial Market Measures of the Neutral Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-08-03. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Arseneau, David, David Rappoport, and Alexandros Vardoulakis (forthcoming). "Private and Public Liquidity Provision in Over-the-Counter Markets," Theoretical Economics.

Avalos, Fernando, and Egon Zakrajšek (2020). "Covid-19 and SARS: What Do Stock Markets Tell Us?" BIS Quarterly Review, March. pp. 14-15.

Baele, Lieven, Geert Bekaert, Koen Inghelbrecht, and Min Wei (2020). "Flights to Safety," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 689-746.

Baker, Steven D., Burton Hollifield, and Emilio Osambela (2020). "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 1-60.

Banegas, Ayelen, and Manjola Tase (2020). "Reserve Balances, the Federal Funds Market and Arbitrage in the New Regulatory Framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 118 (September).

Barth, Daniel, and Phillip Monin (2020). "Illiquidity in Intermediate Portfolios: Evidence from Large Hedge Funds," OFR Working Paper 20-03. Office of Financial Research.

Barth, Daniel, Juha Joenvaara, Mikko Kauppila, and Russ Wermers (2020). "The Hedge Fund Industry is Bigger (and has Performed Better) Than You Think," OFR Working Paper 20-01. Office of Financial Research.

Barth, Daniel, Laurel Hammond, and Phillip Monin (2020). "Leverage and Risk in Hedge Funds," OFR Working Paper 20-02. Office of Financial Research.

Bekaert, Geert, Eric Engstrom, and Andrey Ermolov (2020). "The Variance Risk Premium in Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Paper No. 27108. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Benamar, Hedi, Thierry Foucault, and Clara Vega (forthcoming). "Demand for Information, Uncertainty, and the Response of U.S. Treasury Securities to News," The Review of Financial Studies.

Benson, David, and Ken Onishi (2020). "Are There Competitive Concerns in "Middle Market" Lending?" FEDS Notes 2020-08-10. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

26 Cashin, David, Erin E. Syron Ferris, and Elizabeth Klee (2020). "Treasury Safety, Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics: Evidence from Recent Debt Limit Impasses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-008. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chen, Andrew Y., and Mihail Velikov (2020). "Zeroing in on the Expected Returns of Anomalies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-039. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chen, Andrew Y., and Tom Zimmermann (2020). "Publication Bias and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 249-289.

Chen, Andrew, Markus Ibert, and Francisco Vazquez-Grande (2020). "The Stock Market--'Real Economy 'Disconnect': A Closer Look," FEDS Notes 2020-10-14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Converse, Nathan, and Enrico Mallucci (2019). "Differential Treatment in the Bond Market: Sovereign Risk and Mutual Fund Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 1261. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Diercks, Anthony M., and Isfar Munir (2020). "Conflicting Signals: Implications of Divergence in Surveys and Market-Based Measures of Policy Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-08-31. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dobrev, Dobrislav, and Andrew Meldrum (2020). "What Do Quoted Spreads Tell Us About Machine Trading at Times of Market Stress? Evidence from Treasury and FX Markets during the COVID-19-Related Market Turmoil in March 2020," FEDS Notes 2020-09-25. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Engstrom, Eric C., and Steven A. Sharpe (2019). "The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator: A Less Distorted Mirror," Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 75, no. 4, pp. 37-49.

Foley-Fisher, Nathan, Gary Gorton, and Stéphane Verani (2020). "The Dynamics of Adverse Selection in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-088. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gissler, Stefan, Rodney Ramcharan, and Edison Yu (2020). "The Effects of Competition in Consumer Credit Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 11, pp. 5378-5415.

Goldberg, Jonathan E., and Yoshio Nozawa (forthcoming). "Liquidity Supply in the Corporate Bond Market," The Journal of Finance.

Grinblatt, Mark, Gergana Jostova, Lubomir Petrasek, and Alexander Philipov (forthcoming). "Style and Skill: Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, and Momentum," Management Science.

Grishchenko, Olesya V., Franck Moraux, and Olga Pakulyak (2020). "Fuel Up With OATmeals! The Case of the French Nominal Yield Curve," The Journal of Finance and Data Science, vol. 6, pp. 49- 85.

27 Gu, Li, and Dayong Huang (forthcoming). "Money, Substitutions and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research.

Harkrader, James Collin, and Michael Puglia (2020). "Fixed Income Market Structure: Treasuries vs. Agency MBS," FEDS Notes 2020-08-25. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Harkrader, James Collin, and Michael Puglia (2020). "Principal Trading Firm Activity in Treasury Cash Markets," FEDS Notes 2020-08-04. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Harkrader, James Collin, and Michael Puglia (2020). "Retrospective: The Agency MBS Market on October 15, 2014," FEDS Notes 2020-09-24. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hendershott, Terrence, Dan Li, Dmitry Livdan, and Norman Schurhoff (2020). "Relationship Trading in Over-the-Counter Markets," The Journal of Finance, vol. 75, no. 2, pp. 683-734.

Jovanovic, Boyan, and Sai Ma (2020). "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," International Finance Discussion Papers 1279. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kim, Don H., and Marcel A. Priebsch (2020). "Are Shadow Rate Models of the Treasury Yield Curve Structurally Stable?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-061. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Klee, Elizabeth, and Chaehee Shin (2020). "Post-crisis Signals in Securitization: Evidence from Auto ABS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-042. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Klee, Elizabeth, Zeynep Senyuz, and Emre Yoldas (2019). "Effects of Changing Monetary and Regulatory Policy on Money Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 165-205.

Kronlund, Mathias, Veronika K. Pool, Clemens Sialm, and Irina Stefanescu (2020). "Out of Sight No More? The Effect of Fee Disclosures on 401(k) Investment Allocations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-078. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kyle, Albert S., Anna A. Obizhaeva, and Tugkan Tuzun (2020). "Microstructure Invariance in U.S. Stock Market Trades," Journal of Financial Markets, vol. 49 (June).

Lewis, Kurt F., Francis A. Longstaff, and Lubomir Petrasek (forthcoming). "Asset Mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics.

Miller, David S. (2020). "Intermeeting Rate Cuts as a Response to Rare Disasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-076. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

28 Nanda, Vikram, Wei Wu, and Xing (Alex) Zhou (2019). "Investment Commonality Across Insurance Companies: Fire Sale Risk and Corporate Yield Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 54, no. 6, pp. 2543-2574.

Palazzo, Dino, and Jie Yang (2019). "Spike in 2019Q1 Leverage Ratios: The Impact of Operating Leases," FEDS Notes 2019-12-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Pasquariello, Paolo, Jennifer E. Roush, and Clara Vega (2020). "Government Intervention and Strategic Trading in the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 117-157.

Passmore, Wayne (2019). "An Overview of G-SIB Capital Surcharges," Policy Research Meeting on Financial Markets and Institutions: Proceedings of the Conference in Memory of Andrea Generale, Rome, 4-5 October 2018, pp. 263-270.

Ronen, Tavy, Oleg Sokolinskiy, and Ben Sopranzetti (2020). "The Risk Management Implications of Using End of Day Consensus Pricing for Single Name CDS," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 269-304.

Shan, Chenyu, Dragon Yongjun Tang, Hong Yan, and Xing (Alex) Zhou (forthcoming). "Credit Default Swaps and Bank Regulatory Capital," Review of Finance.

Sharpe, Steven A., and Alex X. Zhou (2020). "The Corporate Bond Market Crises and the Government Response," FEDS Notes 2020-10-07. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Sharpe, Steven A., and Gustavo A. Suarez (forthcoming). "Why Isn't Business Investment More Sensitive to Interest Rates? Evidence from Surveys," Management Science.

Smith, Simon C. (2020). "Equity Premium Prediction and Structural Breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 412-429.

Sokolinskiy, Oleg (2020). "Conditional Dependence in Post-crisis Markets: Dispersion and Correlation Skew Trades," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 389-426.

Sun, Bo, Xuan Tam, and Eric Young (2020). "The Stock Market Response to a "Regulatory Sine Curve"," International Finance Discussion Papers 1299. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Tian, Mary (forthcoming). "Firm Characteristics and Empirical Factor Models: A Model Mining Experiment," Review of Financial Studies.

von Beschwitz, Bastian, and Massimo Massa (2020). "Biased Shorts: Short Sellers' Disposition Effect and Limits to Arbitrage," Journal of Financial Markets, vol. 49 (June).

29 von Beschwitz, Bastian, Donald B. Keim, and Massimo Massa (2020). "First to "Read" the News: News Analytics and Algorithmic Trading," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 122-178.

Wang, Teng (2019). "To Build or to Buy? The Role of Local Information in Credit Market Development," Management Science, vol. 65, no. 12, pp. 5838-5860.

INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION

Aizcorbe, Ana, David M. Byrne, and Daniel E. Sichel (2020). "Getting Smart About Phones: New Price Indexes and the Allocation of Spending Between Devices and Services Plans in Personal Consumption Expenditures," in Fraumeni, Barbara M. (ed.). Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity (pp. 387-411). Cambridge, MA: Academic Press.

Akcigit, Ufuk, and Sina T. Ates (2020). "What Happened to U.S. Business Dynamism?" FEDS Notes 2020-02-14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Benson, David, Serafin Grundl, and Richard Windle (2020). "How do Rural and Urban Retail Banking Customers Differ?" FEDS Notes 2020-06-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Blonz, Joshua, and Jacob Williams (2020). "Electricity Demand as a High-Frequency Economic Indicator: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hurricane Harvey," FEDS Notes 2020-10- 21. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Byrne, David, and Carol Corrado (2020). "Accounting for Innovations in Consumer Digital Services: IT Still Matters," in Corrado, Carol, Jonathan Haskel, Javier Miranda, and Daniel Sichel (eds.). Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.

Byrne, David M., and Carol A. Corrado (2020). "The Increasing Deflationary Impact of Consumer Digital Access Services," FEDS Notes 2020-07-15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Byrne, David M., and Carol A. Corrado (2020). "The Increasing Deflationary Influence of Consumer Digital Access Services," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-021r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Caetano, Carolina, Gregorio Caetano, and Eric Nielsen (2020). "Should Children Do More Enrichment Activities? Leveraging Bunching to Correct for Endogeneity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-036. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, and Marija Vukotić (2020). "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

30 Coglianese, John, Todd D. Gerarden, and James H. Stock (2020). "The Effects of Fuel Prices, Environmental Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016," The Energy Journal, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 55-81.

Crosignani, Matteo, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva (2020). "Pirates without Borders: The Propagation of Cyberattacks through Firms' Supply Chains," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, No. 937.

Datta, Deepa D., Benjamin K. Johannsen, Hannah Kwon, and Robert J. Vigfusson (forthcoming). "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Decker, Ryan A., Meagan McCollum, and Gregory B. Upton Jr. (2020). "Boom Town Business Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-081. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dias, Daniel A., Carlos Robalo Marques, and Christine Richmond (2020). "A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?" The Review of Income and Wealth, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 361-393.

Falcettoni, Elena (2020). "The Consequences of Medicare Pricing: An Explanation of Treatment Choice," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-063. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Firestone, Simon (2020). "The Geography of Small Business Dynamics," FEDS Notes 2020-05-28. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Flaaen, Aaron, Ali Hortaçsu, and Felix Tintelnot (2020). "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, vol. 110, no. 7, pp. 2103-2127.

Lincoln, William F., Andrew H. McCallum, and Michael Siemer (2019). "The and a Missing Generation of Exporters," IMF Economic Review, vol. 67, no. 4, pp. 703-745.

Lincoln, William F., Andrew H. McCallum, and Michael Siemer (2020). "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," FEDS Notes 2020-03-06. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Stella, Andrea (2020). "Economies of Scope in Price Setting: A Moment Inequalities Estimation," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 110, pp. 50-61.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

Ahmed, Shaghil, Jasper Hoek, Steve Kamin, Ben Smith, and Emre Yoldas (2020). "The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Market Economies Financial Conditions," FEDS Notes 2020-10-07. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

31 Ahmed, Shaghil, Ricardo Correa, Daniel A. Dias, Nils Gornemann, Jasper Hoek, Anil Jain, Edith Liu, and Anna Wong (2019). "Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1260. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Akin, Ozlem, Nicholas S. Coleman, Christian Fons-Rosen, and José Luis Peydr (forthcoming). "Political Connections and Informed Trading: Evidence from TARP," Financial Management.

Akinci, Ozge, Gianluca Benigno, and Albert Queralto (2020). "Modeling the Global Effects of the COVID-19 Sudden Stop in Capital Flows," FEDS Notes 2020-07-02. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Ruth A. Judson, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (2020). "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk," NBER Working Paper No. 27048. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Anderson, Gary, and Alena Audzeyeva (2019). "A Coherent Framework for Predicting Emerging Market Credit Spreads with Support Vector Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-074. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Batarseh, Feras A., Munisamy Gopinath, and Anderson Monken (2020). "Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows," International Finance Discussion Papers 1296. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Baughman, Garth, and Jean Flemming (2020). "Global Demand for Basket-Backed Stablecoins," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-048. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Boehm, Christoph E., Aaron Flaaen, and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (2020). "Multinationals, Offshoring, and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, vol. 127 (November).

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, Deepa Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, Juan M. Londono, John Rogers, Cisil Sarisoy, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "What is Certain about Uncertainty?" International Finance Discussion Papers 1294. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chaboud, Alain, Erik Hjalmarsson, and Filip Zikes (2020). "The Evolution of Price Discovery in an Electronic Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-051. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Clark, John, Nathan Converse, Brahima Coulibaly, and Steven B. Kamin (2020). "Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy," International Finance, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 2-17.

Coleman, Nicholas, and Viktors Stebunovs (2019). "Do Negative Interest Rates Explain Low Profitability of European Banks?" FEDS Notes 2019-11-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

32 Converse, Nathan, and Enrico Mallucci (2019). "Differential Treatment in the Bond Market: Sovereign Risk and Mutual Fund Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 1261. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Converse, Nathan, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, and Tomas Williams (2020). "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1268. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Correa, Ricardo, and Laurie P. DeMarco (2019). "Dealer Leverage and Exchange Rates: Heterogeneity Across Intermediaries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1262. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Correa, Ricardo, Keshav Garud, Juan M. Londono, and Nathan Mislang (forthcoming). "Sentiment in Central Banks' Financial Stability Reports," Review of Finance.

Correa, Ricardo, Wenxin Du, and Gordon Liao (2020). "U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1289. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Ferra, Sergio, and Enrico Mallucci (2020). "Avoiding Sovereign Default Contagion: A Normative Analysis," FEDS Notes 2020-09-21. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Ferra, Sergio, and Enrico Mallucci (2020). "Avoiding Sovereign Default Contagion: A Normative Analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1275. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Ferra, Sergio, and Enrico Mallucci (2020). "Sovereign Risk Matters: The Effects of Endogenous Default Risk on the Time-Varying Volatility of Interest Rate Spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 1276. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Soyres, François, Alen Mulabdic, and Michele Ruta (2020). "Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative," International Finance Discussion Papers 1273. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Soyres, François, Alen Mulabdic, and Michele Ruta (2020). "Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Development Economics, vol. 143 (March).

de Soyres, François, Alen Mulabdic, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta (2019). "How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs?" International Economics, vol. 159, pp. 151-164. de Soyres, François, Alen Mulabdic, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta (2020). "How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs?" International Finance Discussion Papers 1274. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

33 de Soyres, Francois, and Alexandre Gaillard (2019). "Increasing Business Cycles Synchronization: The Role of Global Value Chains, Market Power and Extensive Margin Adjustments," FEDS Notes 2019-12-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Soyres, François, and Alexandre Gaillard (2019). "Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1266. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Soyres, François, and Alexandre Gaillard (2020). "Global Trade and GDP Co-Movement," International Finance Discussion Papers 1282. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Soyres, François, Erik Frohm, and Vanessa Gunnella (2020). "How Global Value Chains Change the Trade-Currency Relationship," FEDS Notes 2020-02-03. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

DeMarco, Laurie, Emily Liu, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (2020). "Who Owns U.S. CLO Securities? An Update by Tranche," FEDS Notes 2020-06-25. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dobrev, Dobrislav, and Andrew Meldrum (2020). "What Do Quoted Spreads Tell Us About Machine Trading at Times of Market Stress? Evidence from Treasury and FX Markets during the COVID-19-Related Market Turmoil in March 2020," FEDS Notes 2020-09-25. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Durdu, C. Bora, Alex Martin, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World," IMF Economic Review, vol. 68, pp. 66-107.

Dvorkin, Maximiliano, Juan M. Sánchez, Horacio Sapriza, and Emircan Yurdagul (2020). "News, Sovereign Debt Maturity, and Default Risk," Journal of International Economics, vol. 126 (September).

Ferreira, Thiago, and Samer Shousha (2020). "Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1293. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Flaaen, Aaron, Ali Hortaçsu, and Felix Tintelnot (2020). "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, vol. 110, no. 7, pp. 2103-2127.

Flaaen, Aaron, and Justin Pierce (2019). "Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019- 086. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Flemming, Jean, Jean-Paul L'Huillier, and Facundo Piguillem (2019). "Macro-Prudential Taxation in Good Times," Journal of International Economics, vol. 121 (November).

34 Garcia-Marin, Alvaro, Santiago Justel, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (2020). "Trade Credit, Markups, and Relationships," International Finance Discussion Papers 1303. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ghasseminejad, Saeed, and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (2020). "The Impact of Financial Sanctions: The Case of Iran 2011-2016," International Finance Discussion Papers 1281. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ghasseminejad, Saeed, and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (forthcoming). "The Impact of Financial Sanctions: The Case of Iran 2011-2016," Journal of Policy Modeling.

Gilchrist, Simon, Vivian Yue, and Egon Zakrajš¡ek (2019). "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 51, S1, pp. 127-161.

Gornemann, Nils, Pablo Guerron-Quintana, and Felipe Saffie (2020). "Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1301. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hale, Galina, Tmer Kapan, and Camelia Minoiu (2020). "Shock Transmission Through Cross- Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 10, pp. 4839-4882.

Handley, Kyle, Fariha Kamal, and Ryan Monarch (2020). "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," International Finance Discussion Papers Finance Discussion Papers 1270. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Handley, Kyle, Fariha Kamal, and Ryan Monarch (2020). "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," NBER Working Paper No. 26611. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Handley, Kyle, Fariha Kamal, Ryan Monarch (2020). "Beyond Imports: The Supply Chain Effects of Trade Protection on Export Growth," FEDS Notes 2020-10-16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hendershott, Terrence, Dan Li, Dmitry Livdan, and Norman Schurhoff (2020). "Relationship Trading in Over-the-Counter Markets," The Journal of Finance, vol. 75, no. 2, pp. 683-734.

Hoek, Jasper, Steve Kamin, and Emre Yoldas (2020). "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hottman, Colin J., and Ryan Monarch (2020). "A Matter of Taste: Estimating Import Price Inflation across U.S. Income Groups," Journal of International Economics, vol. 127 (November).

35 Kiley, Michael T. (2019). "The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-076. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Krolikowski, Pawel M., and Andrew H. McCallum (2020). "Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade," FEDS Notes 2020-01-17. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Li, Zhimin, Leslie Sheng Shen, and Calvin Zhang (2020). "Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market," International Finance Discussion Papers 1286. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Liao, Gordon, and Tony Zhang (2020). "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Lin, Stephen, Kaede Johnson, and Tyler Powell (2020). "Why Has Wage Growth Been Subdued in the Advanced Foreign Economies?" FEDS Notes 2020-01-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Lincoln, William F., Andrew H. McCallum, and Michael Siemer (2019). "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," IMF Economic Review, vol. 67, no. 4, pp. 703-745.

Lincoln, William F., Andrew H. McCallum, and Michael Siemer (2020). "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," FEDS Notes 2020-03-06. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Lipinska, Anna, and Musa Orak (2020). "Real Effects of Uncertainty: Evidence from Brexit," FEDS Notes 2020-05-11. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Liu, Emily, Friederike Niepmann, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (2019). "The Effect of U.S. Stress Tests on Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1265. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Londono, Juan M. (2019). "Bad Bad Contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 108 (November).

Londono, Juan M., Sai Ma, and Beth Anne Wilson (2019). "Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy," FEDS Notes 2019-10-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ma, Chang, John Rogers, and Sili Zhou (2019). "The Effect of the China Connect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-087. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Mallucci, Enrico (2020). "Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1291r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

36 Mix, Carter (2020). "Technology, Geography, and Trade over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1304. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Monge, Julio, and Colin Weiss (2019). "Foreign Portfolio Investment When the United States was an Emerging Market," FEDS Notes 2019-10-16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Morales, Eduardo, Gloria Sheu, and Andrés Zahler (2019). "Extended Gravity," The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 86, no. 6, pp. 2668-2712.

Pierce, Justin R., and Peter K. Schott (2020). "Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties," American Economic Review: Insights, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 47-64.

Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo, and Gabriel Tenorio (2020). “Macroprudential Policy in the Presence of External Risks," Journal of International Economics, vol. 126 (September).

Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo, Sharon Traiberman, and Eva Van Leemput (2020). "Emerging Markets and the New Geography of Trade: The Effects of Rising Trade Barriers," IMF Economic Review, vol. 68, pp. 456-508.

Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo, Sharon Trailberman, and Eva Van Leemput (2020). "Emerging Markets and the New Geography of Trade: The Effects of Rising Trade Barriers," International Finance Discussion Papers 1278. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Sager, Erick, and Olga A. Timoshenko (2019). "The Double EMG Distribution and Trade Elasticities," Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 52, no. 4, pp. 1523-1557.

Shousha, Samer (2019). "The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System," International Finance Discussion Papers 1258. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Tabova, Alexandra M. (2020). "What Happened to Foreign Direct Investment in the United States?" FEDS Notes 2020-02-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Takáts, Előd, and Judit Temesvary (2020). "The Currency Dimension of the Bank Lending Channel in International Monetary Transmission," Journal of International Economics, vol. 125 (July).

Van Leemput, Eva (forthcoming). "A Passage to India: Quantifying Internal and External Barriers to Trade," Journal of International Economics.

LABOR ECONOMICS

Ahn, Hie Joo, and Leland D. Crane (2020). "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-027. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

37 Ahn, Hie Joo, and Ling Shao (forthcoming). "The Cyclicality of On-the-Job Search Effort," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Ahn, Hie Joo, Han Chen, and Michael Kister (2020). "A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation," FEDS Notes 2020-07-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bhattarai, Saroj, Felipe Schwartzman, and Choongryul Yang (2019). "Local Scars of the US Housing Crisis," Working Paper No. 19-07. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Cacciatore, Matteo, Romain A. Duval, Giuseppe Fiori, and Fabio Ghironi (forthcoming). "Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Cajner, Tomaz, Andrew Figura, Brendan M. Price, David Ratner, and Alison Weingarden (2020). "Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz (2020). "Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-030. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz (forthcoming). "Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data, in Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro (eds.). Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, NBER Book Series Studies in Income and Wealth. The University of Chicago Press.

Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz, and Ahu Yildirmaz (2020). "The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession," NBER Working Paper No. 27159. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, and John Coglianese (2020). "Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession," NBER Working Paper No. 27566. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Coglianese, John, and Brendan M. Price (2020). "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-084. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Coglianese, John, Todd D. Gerarden, and James H. Stock (2020). "The Effects of Fuel Prices, Environmental Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016," The Energy Journal, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 55-81.

Cortes, Guido Matias, Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda, and Henry E. Siu (2020). "The Dynamics of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach," Labour Economics, vol. 65 (August).

38 Crump, Richard K., Christopher J. Nekarda, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau (2020). "Unemployment Rate Benchmarks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-072. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dettling, Lisa J., and Joanne W. Hsu (forthcoming). "Minimum Wages and Consumer Credit: Effects on Access and Borrowing," The Review of Financial Studies.

Epstein, Brendan, Ryan Nunn, Musa Orak and Elena Patel (2020). "Taxation, Social Welfare, and Labor Market Frictions," International Finance Discussion Papers 1284. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Fallick, Bruce, Daniel Villar, and William L. Wascher (2020). "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States During and After the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-001r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Flemming, Jean (2020). "Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-025. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Flemming, Jean (2020). "Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home," Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 189 (September).

Garcia-Cabo, Joaquin, and Rocio Madera (2019). "The Self-Employment Option in Rigid Labor Markets: An Empirical Investigation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1264. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Goodman, Sarena, and Adam Isen (2020). "Un-Fortunate Sons: Effects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on the Next Generation's Labor Market," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 182-209.

Graves, Sebastian (2020). "Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?" International Finance Discussion Papers 1298. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Graves, Sebastian (2020). "Essays on Macroeconomics and Labor Markets," Ph.D. dissertation, New York University.

Graves, Sebastian (2020). "The State Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies," International Finance Discussion Papers 1290. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Jacobs, Lindsay, Elizabeth Llanes, Kevin Moore, Jeffrey Thompson, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Wealth Distribution and Retirement Preparation Among Early Savers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-043. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Krolikowski, Pawel, Mike Zabek, and Patrick Coate (2020). "Parental Proximity and Earnings after Job Displacements," Labour Economics, vol. 65 (August).

Larrimore, Jeff, Jacob Mortenson, and David Splinter (forthcoming). "Income and Earnings Mobility in U.S. Tax Data," Federal Reserve Community Development Conference Proceedings.

39 Lipinska, Anna, and Musa Orak (2020). "Real Effects of Uncertainty: Evidence from Brexit," FEDS Notes 2020-05-11. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Mezza, Alvaro A., Daniel R. Ringo, Shane M. Sherlund, and Kamila Sommer (2020). "Student Loans and Homeownership," Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 215-260.

Molloy, Raven, Christopher L. Smith, Abigail Wozniak (2020). "Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020- 017. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Murray, Seth (2020). "Essays on Wages and Employment over the Business Cycle," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Maryland.

Nunn, Ryan, and David Ratner (2019). "Rethinking Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Benefits," Tax Policy Center, Urban Institute & Brookings Institution.

Ouimet, Paige, and Rebecca Zarutskie (2020). "Acquiring Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Finance, vol. 10, no. 3, (September).

Ringo, Daniel (2019). "Parental Credit Constraints and Child College Attendance," Education Finance and Policy, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 548-571.

Weingarden, Alison (2020). "Worker Churn at Establishments over the Business Cycle," FEDS Notes 2020-08-24. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Zabek, Mike (2019). "Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-080. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

MACROECONOMICS

Afanasyeva, Elena, Sam Jerow, Seung Jung Lee, and Michele Modugno (2020). "Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-028. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ahmed, Shaghil, Jasper Hoek, Steve Kamin, Ben Smith, and Emre Yoldas (2020). "The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Market Economies Financial Conditions," FEDS Notes 2020-10-07. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ahn, Hie Joo, and Chad Fulton (2020). "Index of Common Inflation Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-09-02. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ahn, Hie Joo, and Leland D. Crane (2020). "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-027. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ahn, Hie Joo, and Ling Shao (forthcoming). "The Cyclicality of On-the-Job Search Effort," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

40 Ahn, Hie Joo, Han Chen, and Michael Kister (2020). "A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation," FEDS Notes 2020-07-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Akcigit, Ufuk, and Sina Ates (forthcoming). "Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Akcigit, Ufuk, Harun Alp, and Michael Peters (forthcoming). "Lack of Selection and Limits to Delegation: Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries," American Economic Review.

Akinci, Ozge, Gianluca Benigno, and Albert Queralto (2020). "Modeling the Global Effects of the COVID-19 Sudden Stop in Capital Flows," FEDS Notes 2020-07-02. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Aramonte, Sirio, Chiara Scotti, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "Monitoring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds," FEDS Notes 2020-05-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Arias, Jonas, Martin Bodenstein, Hess Chung, Thorsten Drautzburg, and Andrea Raffo (2020). "Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-068. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Aronovich, Alex, and Andrew Meldrum (2020). "New Financial Market Measures of the Neutral Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-08-03. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ates, Sina, T., and Felipe E. Saffie (forthcoming). "Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Avalos, Fernando, and Egon Zakrajšek (2020). "Covid-19 and SARS: What Do Stock Markets Tell Us?" BIS Quarterly Review, March. pp. 14-15.

Barbarino, Alessandro, and Chiara Scotti (2020). "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Macroeconomic Surprises, and Uncertainty: Is a Recession Looming?" in C. James Hueng (ed.). Alternative Economic Indicators (pp. 57-80). Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

Batty, Michael, Jesse Bricker, Joseph Briggs, Sarah Friedman, Danielle Nemschoff, Eric Nielsen, Kamila Sommer, and Alice Henriques Volz (forthcoming). "The Distributional Financial Accounts of the United States," in Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, Janet C. Gornick, Barry Johnson, and Arthur Kennickell (eds.). Measuring and Understanding the Distribution and Intra/Inter- Generational Mobility of Income and Wealth. NBER Book Series Studies in Income and Wealth. The University of Chicago Press.

Bekaert, Geert, Eric Engstrom, and Andrey Ermolov (2020). "Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of Covid-19: A Real-Time Analysis," Covid Economics, vol. 25, pp. 141-168.

Bekaert, Geert, Eric Engstrom, and Andrey Ermolov (2020). "Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-049. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

41

Benhabib, Jess, and Bálint Szőke (forthcoming). "Optimal Positive Capital Taxes at Interior Steady States," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Benigno, Pierpaolo, and David Lpez Salido (forthcoming). "Should the ECB Abandon HICP Targeting?" in Beetsma, Roel, Carlo Favero, Alessandro Missale, Anton Muscatelli, Piergiovanna Natale, and Patrizio Tirelli (eds.). European Macroeconomic Policies After Monetary Unification: Fiscal Policies, Monetary Policies and Labor Markets. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.

Berge, Travis J. (2020). "Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-012. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Berge, Travis, Maarten De Ridder and Damjan Pfajfar (2020). "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bhattarai, Saroj, Felipe Schwartzman, and Choongryul Yang (2019). "Local Scars of the US Housing Crisis," Working Paper No. 19-07. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Bodenstein, Martin, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Luca Guerrieri (2020). "Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic," Covid Economics, vol. 19, pp. 1-52.

Bodenstein, Martin, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Luca Guerrieri (2020). "Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-031. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bodenstein, Martin, James Hebden, and Fabian Winkler (2019). "Learning and Misperception: Implications for Price-Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-078. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bognanni, Mark (2020). "A Forecasting Assessment of Market-Based PCE Inflation," Economic Commentary No. 2020-01. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Bognanni, Mark (2020). "Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed Over Time?" Economic Commentary No. 2019-16. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Bognanni, Mark, Doug Hanley, Daniel Kolliner, and Kurt Mitman (2020). "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-091. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cacciatore, Matteo, Giuseppe Fiori, and Nora Traum (2020). "Hours and Employment Over the Business Cycle: A Structural Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pp. 240-262.

42 Cajner, Tomaz, Andrew Figura, Brendan M. Price, David Ratner, and Alison Weingarden (2020). "Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz, and Ahu Yildirmaz (2020). "The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession," NBER Working Paper No. 27159. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Campbell, Jeffrey, Thomas B. King, Anna Orlik, and Rebecca Zarutskie (2020). "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Carroll, Christopher D., Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White (2020). "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," Covid Economics, vol. 10, pp. 62-86.

Carroll, Christopher D., Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White (2020). "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020- 077. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Carroll, Christopher D., Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka, Matthew N. White (2020). "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 40-76.

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, and Ana Beatriz Galvao (2020). "News and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1240r. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, and Ana Beatriz Galvao (forthcoming). "News and Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, and Marija Vukotić (2020). "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, and Marija Vukotić (forthcoming). "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Cavallo, Michele, Marco Del Negro, W. Scott Frame, Jamie Grasing, Benjamin A. Malin, and Carlo Rosa (2019). "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 255-306.

Chung, Hess, Brian M. Doyle, James Hebden, and Michael Siemer (2020). "Considerations Regarding Inflation Ranges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-075. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Conflitti, Cristina, and Matteo Luciani (2019). "Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, vol. 40, no. 6, pp. 221-247.

43 Crane, Leland D., Ryan A. Decker, Aaron Flaaen, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz (2020). "Business Exit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Non-Traditional Measures in Historical Context," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020.089. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Crawley, Edmund, and Andreas Kuchler (2020). "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-005. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Crump, Richard K., Christopher J. Nekarda, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau (2020). "Unemployment Rate Benchmarks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-072. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Datta, Deepa D., Benjamin K. Johannsen, Hannah Kwon, and Robert J. Vigfusson (forthcoming). "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. de Groot, Oliver, C. Bora Durdu, and Enrique G. Mendoza (2020). "Approximately Right?: Global v. Local Methods for Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-006. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

De Michelis, Andrea, Thiago Ferreira, and Matteo Iacoviello (2020). "Oil Prices and Consumption across Countries and U.S. States," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 3- 43.

De Michelis, Andrea, Thiago R. T Ferreira, and Matteo Iacoviello (2019). "Oil Prices and Consumption Across Countries and U.S. States," International Finance Discussion Papers 1263. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). de Soyres, Francois, and Alexandre Gaillard (2019). "Increasing Business Cycles Synchronization: The Role of Global Value Chains, Market Power and Extensive Margin Adjustments," FEDS Notes 2019-12-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Decker, Ryan A., Meagan McCollum, and Gregory B. Upton Jr. (2020). "Boom Town Business Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-081. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dias, Daniel A., Carlos Robalo Marques, and Christine Richmond (2020). "A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?" The Review of Income and Wealth, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 361-393.

Dräger, Lena, Michael J. Lamla, and Damjan Pfajfar (2020). "The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations and its Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-054. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Duarte, Fernando, Benjamin K. Johannsen, Leonardo Melosi, and Taisuke Nakata (2020). "Strengthening the FOMC's Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-067. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

44 Edge, Rochelle M., and J. Nellie Liang (2020). "Financial Stability Committees and Basel III Macroprudential Capital Buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-016. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Falato, Antonio, Itay Goldstein, and Ali Hortaçsu (2020). "Financial Fragility in the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets," NBER Working Paper No. 27559. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Fallick, Bruce, Daniel Villar, and William L. Wascher (2020). "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States During and After the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-001r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ferreira, Thiago, and Samer Shousha (2020). "Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1293. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Flemming, Jean (2020). "Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home," Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 189 (September).

Flemming, Jean, Jean-Paul L'Huillier, and Facundo Piguillem (2019). "Macro-Prudential Taxation in Good Times," Journal of International Economics, vol. 121 (November).

Foley-Fisher, Nathan, Borghan Narajabad, and Stéphane Verani (2020). "Self-Fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 128, no. 9, pp. 3520-3569.

Gabriel, Stuart, Matteo Iacoviello, and Chandler Lutz (2020). "A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-053. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gabriel, Stuart, Matteo Iacoviello, and Chandler Lutz (forthcoming). "A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession," The Review of Financial Studies.

Gagnon, Etienne, and J. David Lpez-Salido (2020). "Small Price Responses to Large Demand Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 792-828.

Gagnon, Etienne, Benjamin Johannsen, and David Lpez-Salido (2020). "Supply-Side Effects of Pandemic Mortality: Insights from an Overlapping-Generations Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-060. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

García, Daniel, and Andrew Paciorek (2020). "An Early Evaluation of the Effects of the Pandemic on Living Arrangements and Household Formation," FEDS Notes 2020-08-07. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gertler, Mark, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, and Andrea Prestipino (2020). "A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics," The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 87, no. 1, pp. 240-288.

45 Gertler, Mark, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, and Andrea Prestipino (2020). "Banking Panics as Endogenous Disasters and the Welfare Gains from Macroprudential Policy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol. 110, pp. 463-469.

Gertler, Mark, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, and Andrea Prestipino (2020). "Credit Booms, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, supplement 1, pp. S8-S33.

Glancy, David, Max Gross, and Felicia Ionescu (2020). "How Did Banks Fund C&I Drawdowns at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis?" FEDS Notes 2020-07-31. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Goldberg, Jonathan (2020). "Dealer Inventory Constraints During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the Treasury Market and Broader Implications," FEDS Notes 2020-07-17. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Goldberg, Jonathan (forthcoming). "Risk Shocks, Risk Management, and Investment," Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Graves, Sebastian (2020). "Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?" International Finance Discussion Papers 1298. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Graves, Sebastian (2020). "Essays on Macroeconomics and Labor Markets," Ph.D. dissertation, New York University.

Graves, Sebastian (2020). "The State Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies," International Finance Discussion Papers 1290. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Guerrieri, Luca, Dale Henderson, and Jinill Kim (2020). "Interpreting Shocks to the Relative Price of Investment with a Two-Sector Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 82- 98.

Guerrieri, Luca, Dale Henderson, and Jinill Kim (2020). "Interpreting Shocks to the Relative Price of Investment with a Two-Sector Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 82- 98.

Gust, Christopher, Edward Herbst, David Lpez-Salido (2020). "Short-term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-003. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Herbst, Edward P., and Benjamin K. Johannsen (2020). "Bias in Local Projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-010. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hills, Timothy S., Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt (2019). "Effective Lower Bound Risk," European Economic Review, vol. 120 (November).

46 Hills, Timothy S., Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt (2019). "Effective Lower Bound Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-077. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hoek, Jasper, Steve Kamin, and Emre Yoldas (2020). "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Horvath, Akos, Benjamin S. Kay, and Carlo Wix (2020). "The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Covid Economics, vol. 36, pp. 129-177.

Ihrig, Jane, Gretchen C. Weinbach, and Scott A. Wolla (2020). "COVID-19's Effects on the Economy and the Fed's Response," Page One Economics®, (September).

Infante, Sebastian, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis (forthcoming). "Collateral Runs," The Review of Financial Studies.

Jovanovic, Boyan, and Sai Ma (2020). "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," International Finance Discussion Papers 1279. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kiley, Michael T. (2020). "Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020- 083. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kiley, Michael T. (2020). "What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?" International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 181-210.

Kim, Kyungmin, Thomas Laubach, and Min Wei (2020). "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Larrimore, Jeff, and Erin Troland (2020). "Improving Housing Payment Projections during the COVID-19 Pandemic," FEDS Notes 2020-10-20. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Lepetit, Antoine (2020). "Asymmetric Unemployment Fluctuations and Monetary Policy Trade- Offs," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pp. 29-45.

Li, Lei, Philip E. Strahan, and Song Zhang (2020). "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Paper No. 27256. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Lipińska, Anna, and Leopold von Thadden (2019). "On the Effectiveness of Fiscal Devaluations in a Monetary Union," Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 23, no. 8, pp. 3424-3456.

Lpez-Salido, David, and Francesca Loria (2020). "Inflation at Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-013. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

47 Lpez-Salido, David, and, Francesca Loria (2019). "Inflation at Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14074. Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Lopez-Salido, David, Gerardo Sanz-Maldonado, Carly Schippits, and Min Wei (2020). "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: The Role of Inflation Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-06-19. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Luciani, Matteo (2020). "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," FEDS Notes 2020-03-05. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Luciani, Matteo (2020). "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-024. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ludvigson, Sydney C., Sai Ma, and Serena Ng (2020). "Covid-19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters," Covid Economics, vol. 9, pp. 1-21.

Ludvigson, Sydney C., Sai Ma, and Serena Ng (2020). "Covid-19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters," NBER Working Paper No. 26987. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Ludvigson, Sydney C., Sai Ma, and Serena Ng (forthcoming). "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?" American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Ma, Chang, John Rogers, and Sili Zhou (2020). "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," International Finance Discussion Papers 1295. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

McCoy, Jack, Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, and Steve Sharpe (2020). "Macroeconomic News and Stock Prices Over the FOMC Cycle," FEDS Notes 2020-10-14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Miller, David S. (2020). "Intermeeting Rate Cuts as a Response to Rare Disasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-076. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Morris, Stephen D. (2020). “Is the Taylor Principle Still Valid When Rates are Low?" Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 64 (June).

Morris, Stephen D., and Junjie Zhang (2019). "Validating China's Output Data Using Satellite Observations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 23, no. 8, pp. 3327-3354.

Murray, Seth (2020). "Essays on Wages and Employment over the Business Cycle," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Maryland.

Na, Seunghoon, and Hyunseung Oh (2020). "Computerizing Households and the Role of Investment-Specific Productivity in Business Cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 1292. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

48 Nakata, Taisuke (2020). "Raising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan," FEDS Notes 2020-01- 08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Nelson, Edward (2020). "The Continuing Validity of Monetary Policy Autonomy Under Floating Exchange Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 81-123.

Nicol, Giovanni (2020). "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo, and Gabriel Tenorio (2020). “Macroprudential Policy in the Presence of External Risks," Journal of International Economics, vol. 126 (September).

Rudd, Jeremy B. (2020). "Underlying Inflation: Its Measurement and Significance," FEDS Notes 2020-09-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Somale, Mariano (forthcoming). "Comparative Advantage in Innovation and Production," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Van Cleve, Luke, Jean-Philippe Laforte, and Andrea Stella (2019). "Real-time Historical Estimates of the Output Gap," FEDS Notes 2019-10-15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Vardoulakis, Alexandros P. (2020). "Designing a Main Street Lending Facility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-052. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Weingarden, Alison (2020). "Worker Churn at Establishments over the Business Cycle," FEDS Notes 2020-08-24. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Yang, Jerry, Ricardo Correa, and Juan M. Londono (2020). "Central Banks' Financial Stability Communications during the COVID-19 Pandemic," FEDS Notes 2020-09-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

MICROECONOMICS

Aladangady, Aditya, and Kelsey O'Flaherty (2020). "How Much Does Home Equity Extraction Matter for Spending?" FEDS Notes 2020-05-01. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Baughman Garth, and Stanislav Rabinovich (2020). "Capacity Choice, Monetary Trade, and the Cost of Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-019. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Benamar, Hedi, Thierry Foucault, and Clara Vega (forthcoming). "Demand for Information, Uncertainty, and the Response of U.S. Treasury Securities to News," The Review of Financial Studies.

49 Bhutta, Neil, Andrew C. Chang, Lisa J. Dettling, and Joanne W. Hsu (2020). "Disparities in Wealth by Race and Ethnicity in the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances," FEDS Notes 2020-09-28. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bhutta, Neil, Jacqueline Blair, Lisa J. Dettling, and Kevin B. Moore (2020). "COVID-19, the CARES Act, and Families' Financial Security," National Tax Journal, vol. 73, no. 3, pp. 645-672.

Bhutta, Neil, Jesse Bricker, Andrew C. Chang, Lisa J. Dettling, Sarena Goodman, Joanne W. Hsu, Kevin B. Moore, Sarah Reber, Alice Henriques Volz, and Richard A. Windle (2020). "Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2016 to 2019: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 106, no. 5 (September).

Bhutta, Neil, Jesse Bricker, Lisa Dettling, Jimmy Kelliher, and Steven Laufer (forthcoming). "Stress Testing Household Debt," The Journal of Credit Risk.

Black, Sandra E., Jeffrey T. Denning, Lisa J. Dettling, Sarena Goodman, Lesley J. Turner (2020). "Taking It to the Limit: Effects of Increased Student Loan Availability on Attainment, Earnings, and Financial Well-Being," NBER Working Paper No. 27658. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Bolen, J. Brandon, Gregory Elliehausen, and Thomas W. Miller Jr. (2020). "Do Consumers Need More Protection From Small-Dollar Lenders? Historical Evidence and a Roadmap for Future Research," Economic Inquiry, vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 1577-1613.

Bricker, Jesse, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Wealth Concentration Levels and Growth: 1989-2016," FEDS Notes 2020-02-20. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bricker, Jesse, Jacob Krimmel, and Rodney Ramcharan (forthcoming). "Signaling Status: The Impact of Relative Income on Household Consumption and Financial Decisions," Management Science.

Bricker, Jesse, Peter Hansen, and Alice Henriques Volz (2019). "Wealth Concentration in the U.S. After Augmenting the Upper Tail of the Survey of Consumer Finances," Economics Letters, vol. 184 (November).

Bricker, Jesse, Sarena Goodman, Kevin B. Moore, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Wealth and Income Concentration in the SCF: 1989-2019," FEDS Notes 2020-09-28. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Canilang, Sara, Cassandra Duchan, Kimberly Kreiss, Jeff Larrimore, Ellen Merry, Erin Troland, and Mike Zabek (2020). "Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2019, Featuring Supplemental Data from April 2020," Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, (May). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Canilang, Sara, Kayla Jones, Jeff Larrimore, Ellen Merry, and Mike Zabek (2020). "Update on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households: July 2020 Results," Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, (September). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

50 Carroll, Christopher D., Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White (2020). "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," Covid Economics, vol. 10, pp. 62-86.

Carroll, Christopher D., Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White (2020). "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020- 077. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Coglianese, John, and Brendan M. Price (2020). "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-084. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Crawley, Edmund (2019). "In Search of Lost Time Aggregation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-075. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Crawley, Edmund (2020). "In Search of Lost Time Aggregation," Economic Letters, vol. 189 (April).

Crawley, Edmund, and Andreas Kuchler (2020). "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-005. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cupák, Andrej, Pirmin Fessler, Joanne W. Hsu, Piotr R. Paradowski (2020). "Confidence, Financial Literacy and Investment in Risky Assets: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-004. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Dettling, Lisa J., and Joanne W. Hsu (forthcoming). "Minimum Wages and Consumer Credit: Effects on Access and Borrowing," The Review of Financial Studies.

Deza, Monica, and Alvaro Mezza (2020). "The Intergenerational Effects of the Vietnam Draft on Risky Behaviors," NBER Working Paper No. 27830. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Elliehausen, Gregory (2019). "Behavioral Economics, Financial Literacy, and Consumers' Financial Decisions," in Berger, Allen N., Philip Molyneux, and John O. S. Wilson eds.,The Oxford Handbook of Banking (Third Edition). London: Oxford University Press.

Ferrante, Francesco, and Matthias Paustian (2019). "Household Debt and the Heterogeneous Effects of Forward Guidance," International Finance Discussion Papers 1267. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Goodman, Sarena, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Attendance Spillovers Between Public and For-Profit Colleges: Evidence from Statewide Variation in Appropriations for Higher Education," Education Finance and Policy, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 428-456.

Jacobs, Lindsay, Elizabeth Llanes, Kevin Moore, Jeffrey Thompson, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Wealth Distribution and Retirement Preparation Among Early Savers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-043. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

51 Jain, Anil K., and Robert M. Townsend (2020). "The Economics of Platforms in a Walrasian Framework," International Finance Discussion Papers 1280. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Jain, Anil K., and Robert M. Townsend (forthcoming). "The Economics of Platforms in a Walrasian Framework," Economic Theory.

Jiang, Jiajun, Qi Liu, and Bo Sun (2020). "Investor Sentiment and the (Discretionary) Accrual- return Relation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1300. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kurz, Christopher J., Geng Li, and Daniel J. Vine (2019). "Are Millennials Different?" in Haughwout, Andrew, and Benjamin Mandel, (eds.), Handbook of US Consumer Economics, pp. 193-232.

Larrimore, Jeff, Jacob Mortenson, and David Splinter (forthcoming). "Household Incomes in Tax Data: Using Addresses to Move from Tax Unit to Household Income Distributions," Journal of Human Resources.

Malmendier, Ulrike, and Leslie Sheng Shen (2019). "Scarred Consumption,” International Finance Discussion Papers 1259. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Morse, Adair, and Karen Pence (2020). "Technological Innovation and Discrimination in Household Finance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-018. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Morse, Adair, and Karen Pence (2020). "Technological Innovation and Discrimination in Household Finance," NBER Working Paper No. 26739. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Pruitt, Seth, and Nicholas Turner (2020). "Earnings Risk in the Household: Evidence from Millions of US Tax Returns," American Economic Review: Insights, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 237-254.

Thompson, Jeffrey P., and Gustavo A. Suarez (2019). "Accounting for Racial Wealth Disparities in the United States," Research Department Working Paper, No. 19-13. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

MONETARY ECONOMICS

Afanasyeva, Elena, and Jochen Gntner (2020). "Bank Market Power and the Risk Channel of Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 111, pp. 118-134.

Altinoglu, Levent (forthcoming). "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," Journal of Monetary Economics.

Andreasen, Martin M., and Kasper Jrgensen (2020). "The Importance of Timing Attitudes in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 111, pp. 95-117.

52 Baughman Garth, and Stanislav Rabinovich (2020). "Capacity Choice, Monetary Trade, and the Cost of Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-019. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Baughman, Garth, and Francesca Carapella (2020). "Voluntary Reserve Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 52, no. 2-3, pp. 583-612.

Beltran, Daniel O., Valentin Bolotnyy, and Elizabeth Klee (forthcoming). "The Federal Funds Network and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics.

Bhutta, Neil, and Daniel Ringo (forthcoming). "The Effect of Interest Rates on Home Buying: Evidence from a Shock to Mortgage Insurance Premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics.

Bodenstein, Martin, and Junzhu Zhao (2020). "Employment, Wages and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 112, pp. 77-96.

Cacciatore, Matteo, Romain A. Duval, Giuseppe Fiori, and Fabio Ghironi (forthcoming). "Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo (2020). "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 109, pp. 38-59.

Campbell, Jeffrey, Thomas B. King, Anna Orlik, and Rebecca Zarutskie (2020). "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Duarte, Fernando, Benjamin K. Johannsen, Leonardo Melosi, and Taisuke Nakata (2020). "Strengthening the FOMC's Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-067. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Figueroa, Nicolás, Oksana Leukhina, and Carlos Ramírez (forthcoming). "Imperfect Information Transmission from Banks to Investors: Macroeconomic Implications," Journal of Monetary Economics.

Hebden, James, Edward P. Herbst, Jenny Tang, Giorgio Topa, and Fabian Winkler (2020). "How Robust Are Makeup Strategies to Key Alternative Assumptions?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-069. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Husted, Lucas, John Rogers, and Bo Sun (2020). "Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 115, pp. 20-36.

Levine, Oliver, and Missaka Warusawitharana (forthcoming). "Finance and Productivity Growth: Firm-Level Evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics.

53 Lin, Xiaoji, Berardino Palazzo, and Fan Yang (2020). "The Risks of Old Capital Age: Asset Pricing Implications of Technology Adoption," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 115, pp. 145-161.

Lipińska, Anna, and Leopold von Thadden (2019). "On the Effectiveness of Fiscal Devaluations in a Monetary Union," Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 23, no. 8, pp. 3424-3456.

Lopez-Salido, David, Gerardo Sanz-Maldonado, Carly Schippits, and Min Wei (2020). "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: The Role of Inflation Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-06-19. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Nelson, Edward (2019). "The Monetary Base in Allan Meltzer's Analytical Framework," in David Beckworth (ed.). Reflections on Allan H. Meltzer’s Contributions to Monetary Economics and Public Policy (pp. 63-80). Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press.

Nelson, Edward (2020). "Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States, 1932-1972, Volume 1." Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2020.

Nelson, Edward (2020). "Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States, 1932-1972, Volume 2." Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2020.

Queralto, Albert (2020). "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 114, pp. 1-25.

Stella, Andrea (2020). "Economies of Scope in Price Setting: A Moment Inequalities Estimation," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 110, pp. 50-61.

Van Cleve, Luke, Jean-Philippe Laforte, and Andrea Stella (2019). "Real-time Historical Estimates of the Output Gap," FEDS Notes 2019-10-15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Winkler, Fabian (2020). "The Role of Learning for Asset Prices and Business Cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 114, pp. 42-58.

MONETARY POLICY

Afonso, Gara, Kyungmin Kim, Antoine Martin, Ed Nosal, Simon Potter, and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl (2020). "Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-020. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Aikman, David, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno (2020). "Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 141-180.

Ajello, Andrea, Isabel Cair, Vasco Crdia, Thomas A. Lubik, and Albert Queralto (2020). "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

54 Altig, David, Jeff Fuhrer, Marc P. Giannoni, and Thomas Laubach (2020). "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework: A Roadmap," FEDS Notes 2020-08-27. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ammer, John, John Rogers, Gang Wang, and Yang Yu (2020). "Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1285. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Arias, Jonas, Martin Bodenstein, Hess Chung, Thorsten Drautzburg, and Andrea Raffo (2020). "Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-068. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Benigno, Pierpaolo, and David Lpez Salido (forthcoming). "Should the ECB Abandon HICP Targeting?" in Beetsma, Roel, Carlo Favero, Alessandro Missale, Anton Muscatelli, Piergiovanna Natale and Patrizio Tirelli (eds.). European Macroeconomic Policies After Monetary Unification: Fiscal Policies, Monetary Policies and Labor Markets. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.

Bodenstein, Martin, and Junzhu Zhao (2019). "On Targeting Frameworks and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 51, no. 8, pp. 2077-2113.

Bodenstein, Martin, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Luca Guerrieri (2020). "The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1271. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Bu, Chunya, John Rogers, and Wenbin Wu (2020). "Forward-Looking Monetary Policy and the Transmission of Conventional Monetary Policy Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-014. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Caldara, Dario, Etienne Gagnon, Enrique Martínez-García, and Christopher J. Neely (2020). "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Cavallo, Michele, Marco Del Negro, W. Scott Frame, Jamie Grasing, Benjamin A. Malin, and Carlo Rosa (2019). "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 255-306.

Cumming, Fergus, and Lisa Dettling (2020). "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-002. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

De Pooter, Michiel, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu (2020). "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-032. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

De Pooter, Michiel, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu (forthcoming). "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance.

55 Diercks, Anthony M., and Isfar Munir (2020). "Conflicting Signals: Implications of Divergence in Surveys and Market-Based Measures of Policy Expectations," FEDS Notes 2020-08-31. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Durdu, C. Bora, Alex Martin, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World," IMF Economic Review, vol. 68, pp. 66-107.

Erceg, Christopher J., Dale W. Henderson, and Andrew T. Levin (2019). "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Credit and Capital Markets//Kredit und Kapital, vol. 52, no. 4, pp. 537-571.

Feiveson, Laura, Nils Goernemann, Julie Hotchkiss, Karel Mertens, and Jae Sim (2020). "Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-073. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gilchrist, Simon, Vivian Yue, and Egon Zakrajš¡ek (2019). "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 51, S1, pp. 127-161.

Goldberg, Jonathan, Elizabeth Klee, Edward Simpson Prescott, and Paul Wood (2020). "Monetary Policy Strategies and Tools: Financial Stability Considerations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-074. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

González-Astudillo, Manuel, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2020). "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gust, Christopher, Edward Herbst, David Lpez-Salido (2020). "Short-term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-003. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hills, Timothy S., Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt (2019). "Effective Lower Bound Risk," European Economic Review, vol. 120 (November).

Hills, Timothy S., Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt (2019). "Effective Lower Bound Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-077. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Hoek, Jasper, Steve Kamin, and Emre Yoldas (2020). "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Huther, Jeffrey, Luke Pettit, and Mark Wilkinson (2019). "Fiscal Flow Volatility and Reserves," FEDS Notes 2019-12-16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ihrig, Jane, and Scott Wolla (2020). "Closing the Monetary Policy Curriculum Gap: A Primer for Educators Making the Transition to Teaching the Fed's Ample-Reserves Framework," FEDS Notes 2020-10-23. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

56 Ihrig, Jane, and Scott Wolla (2020). "Fixing the "Curriculum Lag" in Economics: The New Tools the Fed is Using to Influence the Economy," Social Education, vol. 84, no. 2, pp. 93-99.

Ihrig, Jane, and Scott Wolla (2020). "Let's Close the Gap: Revising Teaching Materials to Reflect How the Federal Reserve Implements Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-092. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S).

Ihrig, Jane, Zeynep Senyuz, and Gretchen C. Weinbach (2020). "Implementing Monetary Policy in an "Ample-Reserves" Regime: The Basics (Note 1 of 3)," FEDS Notes 2020-07-01. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ihrig, Jane, Zeynep Senyuz, and Gretchen C. Weinbach (2020). "Implementing Monetary Policy in an "Ample-Reserves" Regime: When in Crisis (Note 3 of 3)," FEDS Notes 2020-10-02. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ihrig, Jane, Zeynep Senyuz, and Gretchen C. Weinbach (2020). "Implementing Monetary Policy in an "Ample-Reserves" Regime: Maintaining an Ample Quantity of Reserves (Note 2 of 3)," FEDS Notes 2020-08-28. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ihrig, Jane, Zeynep Senyuz, and Gretchen C. Weinbach (2020). "The Fed's 'Ample-Reserves' Approach to Implementing Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020- 022. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Jane Ihrig and Scott A. Wolla, "The Fed's New Monetary Policy Tools," Page One Economics®: Econ Primer, (August).

Joergensen, Kasper, and Andrew Meldrum (2019). "Expectations about the Federal Funds Rate in the Long Run," FEDS Notes 2019-10-09. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kandrac, John, and Bernd Schlusche (forthcoming). "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Kiley, Michael T. (2020). "Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic," FEDS Notes 2020-01-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kiley, Michael T. (2020). "Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020- 083. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Kim, Kyungmin, Antoine Martin, and Ed Nosal (forthcoming). "Can the U.S. Interbank Market Be Revived?" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Klee, Elizabeth, Zeynep Senyuz, and Emre Yoldas (2019). "Effects of Changing Monetary and Regulatory Policy on Money Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 165-205.

57 Kurtzman, Robert, and David Zeke (2020). "Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pp. 94-126.

Lepetit, Antoine (2020). "Asymmetric Unemployment Fluctuations and Monetary Policy Trade- Offs," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pp. 29-45.

Liu, Emily, Friederike Niepmann, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (2019). "The Effect of U.S. Stress Tests on Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1265. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Nelson, Edward (2020). "Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's 'The Role of Monetary Policy'," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 145-164.

Nelson, Edward (2020). "The Continuing Validity of Monetary Policy Autonomy Under Floating Exchange Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 81-123.

Nicol, Giovanni (2020). "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Rezende, Marcelo, Mary-Frances Styczynski, and Cindy M. Vojtech (forthcoming). "The Effects of Liquidity Regulation on Bank Demand in Monetary Policy Operations," Journal of Financial Intermediation.

Sapriza, Horacio, and Judit Temesvary (2020). "Asymmetries in the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in the United States," Economics Letters, vol. 189 (April).

PAYMENT SYSTEMS

Adams, Robert M., and Vitaly M. Bord (2020). "The Effects of the COVID-19 Shutdown on the Consumer Credit Card Market: Revolvers versus Transactors," FEDS Notes 2020-10-21. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Baughman, Garth, and Jean Flemming (2020). "Global Demand for Basket-Backed Stablecoins," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-048. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Buttecali, Jillian, Zachary Proom, and Paul Wong (2020). "Observations from the FooWire Project: Experimenting with DLT for Payments Use," FEDS Notes 2020-08-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Chen, Weiwei, Benjamin Melamed, Oleg Sokolinskiy, and Ben S. Sopranzetti (2020). "Equilibrium Rate Analysis of Cash Conversion Systems: The Case of Corporate Subsidiaries," in Cheng Few Lee, and John C. Lee (eds.). Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, and Machine Learning, (vol. 2, pp. 1725-1762). New Jersey: World Scientific.

58 Gerdes, Geoffrey, Claire Greene, Xuemei (May) Liu, and Emily Massaro (2019). "The 2019 Federal Reserve Payments Study," The Federal Reserve Payments Study. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

King, Thomas, Travis D. Nesmith, Anna Paulson, and Todd Prono (2020). "Central Clearing and Systemic Liquidity Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-009. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Wong, Paul, and Jesse Leigh Maniff (2020). "Comparing Means of Payment: What Role for a Central Bank Digital Currency?" FEDS Notes 2020-08-13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

PUBLIC ECONOMICS

Andrés, Javier, José E. Boscá, Javier Ferri, and Cristina Fuentes-Albero (2020). "Household's Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018- 012r1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Andrés, Javier, José E. Boscá, Javier Ferri, and Cristina Fuentes-Albero (forthcoming). "Households' Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Benhabib, Jess, and Bálint Szőke (2020). "Optimal Positive Capital Taxes at Interior Steady States," NBER Working Paper No. 25895. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Benhabib, Jess, and Bálint Szőke (forthcoming). "Optimal Positive Capital Taxes at Interior Steady States," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Berger, David, Nicholas Turner, and Eric Zwick (2020). "Stimulating Housing Markets," The Journal of Finance, vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 277-321.

Bhutta, Neil, Jacqueline Blair, Lisa J. Dettling, and Kevin B. Moore (2020). "COVID-19, the CARES Act, and Families' Financial Security," National Tax Journal, vol. 73, no. 3, pp. 645-672.

Blandin, Adam, and William B. Peterman (2019). "Taxing Capital? The Importance of How Human Capital is Accumulated," European Economic Review, vol. 119, pp. 482-508.

Brevoort, Kenneth, Daniel Grodzicki, and Martin B. Hackmann (2020). "The Credit Consequences of Unpaid Medical Bills," Journal of Public Economics, vol. 187 (July).

Burkhauser, Richard V., Kevin Corinth, James Elwell, and Jeff Larrimore (2020). "Evaluating the Success of President Johnson's War on Poverty: Revisiting the Historical Record Using a Full- Income Poverty Measure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-011. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

59 Cashin, David, Erin E. Syron Ferris, and Elizabeth Klee (2020). "Treasury Safety, Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics: Evidence from Recent Debt Limit Impasses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-008. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

De Ridder, Maarten, Simona M. Hannon, and Damjan Pfajfar (2020). "The Multiplier Effect of Education Expenditure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-058. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Epstein, Brendan, Ryan Nunn, Musa Orak and Elena Patel (2020). "Taxation, Social Welfare, and Labor Market Frictions," International Finance Discussion Papers 1284. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ericsson, Neil R., and Andrew B. Martinez (2019). "Evaluating Government Budget Forecasts," in Williams, Daniel, and Thad Calabrese (eds.). The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting. Palgrave Studies in Public Debt, Spending, and Revenue (pp. 37-69). Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.

Ferraro, Domenico, and Giuseppe Fiori (2020). "The Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 167-193.

Figinski, Theodore F., and Erin Troland (2020). "Health Insurance and Hospital Supply: Evidence from 1950s Coal Country," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-033. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Goodman, Sarena, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Attendance Spillovers Between Public and For-Profit Colleges: Evidence from Statewide Variation in Appropriations for Higher Education," Education Finance and Policy, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 428-456.

Huther, Jeffrey, Luke Pettit, and Mark Wilkinson (2019). "Fiscal Flow Volatility and Reserves," FEDS Notes 2019-12-16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Jacobs, Lindsay, Elizabeth Llanes, Kevin Moore, Jeffrey Thompson, and Alice Henriques Volz (2020). "Wealth Distribution and Retirement Preparation Among Early Savers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-043. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Larrimore, Jeff, Jacob Mortenson, and David Splinter (2020) "Presence and Persistence of Poverty in U.S. Tax Data," NBER Working Paper No. 26966. Cambridge, MA: The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Larrimore, Jeff, Jacob Mortenson, and David Splinter (forthcoming). "Household Incomes in Tax Data: Using Addresses to Move from Tax Unit to Household Income Distributions," Journal of Human Resources.

Larrimore, Jeff, Jacob Mortenson, and David Splinter (forthcoming). "Income and Earnings Mobility in U.S. Tax Data," Federal Reserve Community Development Conference Proceedings.

60 Nunn, Ryan, and David Ratner (2019). "Rethinking Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Benefits," Tax Policy Center, Urban Institute & Brookings Institution.

Pouzo, Demian, and Ignacio Presno (2020). "Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1297. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Pruitt, Seth, and Nicholas Turner (2020). "Earnings Risk in the Household: Evidence from Millions of US Tax Returns," American Economic Review: Insights, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 237-254.

Rauh, Joshua D., Irina Stefanescu, and Stephen P. Zeldes (2020). "Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans," Journal of Public Economics, vol. 188 (August).

Sapriza, Horacio, G. Cuadra, and J. M. Sanchez (forthcoming). "Sovereign Default and Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics.

REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS

An, Xudong, Larry Cordell, and Joseph B. Nichols (2020). "Reputation, Information, and Herding in Credit Ratings: Evidence from CMBS," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, vol. 61, no. 3, pp. 476-504.

Anenberg, Elliot, and Daniel Ringo (2019). "The Propagation of Demand Shocks Through Housing Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-084. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Anenberg, Elliot, and Edward Kung (2020). "Can More Housing Supply Solve the Affordability Crisis? Evidence from a Neighborhood Choice Model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, vol. 80 (January).

Anenberg, Elliot, and Patrick Bayer (2020). "Endogenous Sources of Volatility in Housing Markets: The Joint Buyer-Seller Program," International Economic Review, vol. 61, no. 3, pp. 1195-1228.

Berger, David, Nicholas Turner, and Eric Zwick (2020). "Stimulating Housing Markets," The Journal of Finance, vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 277-321.

Bhattarai, Saroj, Felipe Schwartzman, and Choongryul Yang (2019). "Local Scars of the US Housing Crisis," Working Paper No. 19-07. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Bhutta, Neil, and Daniel Ringo (forthcoming). "The Effect of Interest Rates on Home Buying: Evidence from a Shock to Mortgage Insurance Premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics.

Black, Lamont K., John R. Krainer, and Joseph B. Nichols (2020). "Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 33, no. 11, pp. 5173-5211.

61 Gabriel, Stuart, Matteo Iacoviello, and Chandler Lutz (2020). "A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-053. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Gabriel, Stuart, Matteo Iacoviello, and Chandler Lutz (forthcoming). "A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession," The Review of Financial Studies.

Gallin, Joshua H., Raven Molloy, Eric Nielsen, Paul Smith, and Kamila Sommer (forthcoming). "Measuring Aggregate Housing Wealth: New Insights from Machine Learning," Journal of Housing Economics.

García, Daniel, and Andrew Paciorek (2020). "An Early Evaluation of the Effects of the Pandemic on Living Arrangements and Household Formation," FEDS Notes 2020-08-07. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Glancy, David, John Krainer, Robert Kurtzman, and Joseph Nichols (2019). "Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-079. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Li, Zhimin, Leslie Sheng Shen, and Calvin Zhang (2020). "Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market," International Finance Discussion Papers 1286. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Molloy, Raven (2020). "The Effect of Housing Supply Regulation on Housing Affordability: A Review," Regional Science and Urban Economics, vol. 80 (January).

Molloy, Raven, Charles G. Nathanson, and Andrew Paciorek (2020). "Housing Supply and Affordability: Evidence from Rents, Housing Consumption and Household Location," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-044. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Passmore, Wayne, and Alexander H. von Hafften (2020). "Financing Affordable and Sustainable Homeownership with Fixed-COFI Mortgages," Regional Science and Urban Economics, vol. 80 (January).

Passmore, Wayne, and Shane M. Sherlund (forthcoming). "FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Great Recession," Real Estate Economics.

Ringo, Daniel (2020). ""Revitalize or Stabilize": Does Community Development Financing Work?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-029. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Ringo, Daniel R. (forthcoming). "Home Ownership as a Labor Market Friction," Real Estate Economics.

Sommer, Kamila (2020). "Student Debt Overhang: Imprint on Homeownership and the Economy," Business Economics, vol. 55, no. 3, pp. 134-137.

62 Zabek, Mike (2019). "Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-080. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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