ab Global Equity Research Europe Including UK UBS Investment Research European Banks Banks Market Comment Euroviews – that vertiginous feeling The rally increases the probability of equity issuance… Financials have rallied strongly, reflecting recognition that policymakers will do 30 April 2009 what it takes to reflate the global economy and that nationalisation is a very last www.ubs.com/investmentresearch resort. However, this does not mean that dilution risk from equity issuance is no longer a concern, and we believe a number of European banks need new equity – John-Paul Crutchley either for loss absorption capacity or to support market risk within their businesses. Analyst
[email protected] …but timing is back in the banks’ control +44-20-7568 5037 Governments (ex UK) have avoided dilutive recapitalisation of banks through the Alastair Ryan creation of “buffer” core Tier 1 – an instrument that satisfies regulators and more Analyst senior creditors – but this capital does not ultimately bear losses. “Buffer” capital is
[email protected] useful where a bank is suffering from cyclical capital stress and may buy time – +44 20 7568 3238 giving a bank the opportunity to raise equity on more advantageous terms as the Daniele Brupbacher cycle improves. The alternative is a “zombie” work-out with operating profits Analyst utilised in absorbing losses and rebuilding capital for years to come.
[email protected] +41-44-239 1493 Buying recapitalised banks… Nick Davey Through choice, we are taking money off the table following the market rally. Our Analyst preference is for banks with strong business models whose capital strength is close
[email protected] to undoubted, such as HSBC, Lloyds and Intesa.