Economic and Regulatory Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Electricity Trade and Cooperation Lyndon B
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Policy Research Project Report 174 Economic and Regulatory Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Electricity Trade and Cooperation Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs Policy Research Project Report Number 174 Economic and Regulatory Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Electricity Trade and Cooperation Project directed by Alejandro Ibarra-Yunez, Ph.D. A report by the Policy Research Project on Electricity Trade and US-Mexico Cooperation May 2012 The LBJ School of Public Affairs publishes a wide range of public policy issue titles. For order information and book availability call 512-471-4218 or write to: Office of Communications, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin, Box Y, Austin, TX 78713-8925. Information is also available online at www.utexas.edu/lbj/pubs/. Library of Congress Control No.: 2012940006 ISBN: 978-0-89940-792-0 ©2012 by The University of Texas at Austin All rights reserved. No part of this publication or any corresponding electronic text and/or images may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the U.S.A. Cover design by Doug Marshall LBJ School Communications Office Policy Research Project Participants Students in Alphabetical Order Nora Ankrum, B.A. (English), The University of Texas at Austin; experience in journalism and energy industry analysis Lun Dai, B.A. (English), Sichuan International Studies University; experience and interests in logistics and renewable energy Dyan Knapp B.S. (International Studies), Michigan State University; certified to operate surface ship propulsion plants, US Navy Alejandro Márquez-Márquez, B.A. (International Politics and Foreign Policy), Georgetown University Claire McEnery, B.A (Anthropology and Spanish), The University of Virginia; specialty in international development Daniel J. Noll, B.A. (Government), The University of Texas at Austin; experience in energy as research assistant at the UT Energy Institute Oscar Padilla, B.A. (Finance), The University of Texas at El Paso and Tulane University; experience in public project evaluation Marcus W. Pridgeon, B.A. (Accounting) and MSc (Ethics and Leadership), Stephen F. Austin State University; specialty in electric distribution, transmission, and generation utilities Timothy Regal, M.A. (English and Italian), The University of Texas at Austin; experience and interests in economic analysis, business climate/ issues analysis Kaye Schultz, B.A. (Economics, Psychology), The University of Virginia; interests in economic analysis to energy policy Amin Shams-Moorkani, B.S. (Industrial Engineering) and MBA, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran; experience in project management of the automotive and oil industries Michael Simpson, B.A. (History), Stanford University Bradley J. Smith, B.A. (Psychology), Texas A&M University; experience and interests in energy resources, sustainability and political economy Josef Varga, B.A. (International Studies), Texas A&M University iii Austin Woody, B.A. (Accounting, Political Science), University of California at Santa Clara; experience in project management, finance, non-profit organizations Project Director Alejandro Ibarra-Yunez, Ph.D., Professor of Economics and Public Policy and Chair, Economics of Networks and Regulations, EGADE Business School, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Monterrey; Visiting Professor/Researcher, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin (academic year 2011-2012) iv Table of Contents List of Tables.................................................................................................................vii List of Figures ................................................................................................................ ix List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................ xi Foreword ....................................................................................................................... xv Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................... xvii Chapter 1. Introduction: Setting the Stage for International Electricity Integration ........... 1 Chapter 2. The Structure of Utilities and Non-Utilities in North America, and Regional Players ........................................................................................................................... 23 Chapter 3. Electricity Demand Management and Pricing ............................................... 49 Chapter 4. Consumers and Electricity-Use Trends in the US-Mexico Border Region ..... 73 Chapter 5. The Grid, International Pools, and Exchanges ............................................. 115 Chapter 6. Cross-Border Cooperation: Assessing Regulatory and Political Challenges to the US-Mexico Electricity Market ............................................................................... 135 Chapter 7. Energy Integration in North America: Politics and Policymaking................ 171 Chapter 8. Towards Increased Cooperation in Electricity Transmission: A Mexico- ERCOT Simulation Experiment................................................................................... 199 Chapter 9. The Green Revolution: Renewable Energy and its Future ........................... 223 Appendix A. List of People Interviewed for the Research Project ................................ 249 v vi List of Tables Table 1.1 International Reference of State-Owned Enterprises, vs. Mixed Enterprises and Private Firms in Electricity, with and without Unbundling ..................................... 10 Table 1.2 Trade in Electricity in Europe by Regional Connection: UCTE ...................... 13 Table 1.3 Trade in Electricity in Europe by Regional Connection: NORDEL................. 13 Table 1.4 Trade in Electricity in Europe by Regional Connection: CENTREL ............... 14 Table 1.5 Trade in Electricity in North America ............................................................ 14 Table 1.6 Canada’s Utilities and Transmission Points and Trade, Comparison with Mexico, 2009 ......................................................................................................... 17 Table 1.7 Similarities and Differences between ERCOT and CAISO, 2012 ................... 18 Table 2.1 Comparison of the US and Mexico Systems of the Research Project, 2010..... 35 Table 3.1 CFE Interruptible Tariffs in Comparison to ERCOT....................................... 59 Table 3.2 Mexico’s I-15 Contract Distribution by Industry and State 2010 .................... 61 Table 3.3 ERCOT Distribution of Interruptible Contracts .............................................. 63 Table 3.4 CFE I-15 Compensation by Tariff Type H-S and H-SL .................................. 65 Table 3.5 CFE I-15 Compensation by Tariff Type H-T and H-TL .................................. 65 Table 3.6 ERCOT Average Tariff Offers ....................................................................... 66 Table 3.7 Comparison of Costs for CFE and ERCOT .................................................... 68 Table 3.8 EILS cost to ERCOT ...................................................................................... 69 Table 4.1 Mexico Electric Power Foreign Trade 1997-2007 (GWh) ............................... 82 Table 4.2 California Summary Statistics ........................................................................ 89 Table 4.3 Texas Summary Statistics .............................................................................. 92 Table 4.4 Arizona Summary Statistics ........................................................................... 95 Table 4.5 New Mexico Summary Statistics .................................................................... 97 Table 6.1 Product Classification Systems ..................................................................... 147 vii Table 7.1 Different Views on Nationalization of Renewable Portfolio Standard ........... 194 Table 8.1 Comparison of US CAISO and ERCOT with Mexico’s CFE, 2010 .............. 210 Table 8.2 Mexico’s Regional Effective Installed Capacity and Demand at Non-Peak and Peak Loads .......................................................................................................... 211 Table 9.1 Current Renewable Energy Capacity in North America 2011-2012 .............. 224 viii List of Figures Figure 1.1 World net per capita Electricity Consumption and per capita GDP ................ 15 Figure 2.1 Distribution of Permits in Mexico (Number) ................................................. 27 Figure 2.2 Distribution of Permits in Mexico (in MW capacity) ..................................... 28 Figure 2.3 Distribution of Permits by Investment ........................................................... 28 Figure 2.4 Total Net Generation in GWh: California, Texas, and Mexico ...................... 36 Figure 3.1 ERCOT Nodal Market in Texas, 2011 .......................................................... 52 Figure 3.2 Mexico’s CFE Zonal Divisions, 2011 ........................................................... 53 Figure 3.3 Number of QSE Participants ......................................................................... 62 Figure 3.4 2011 I-15 Interruptible Load ......................................................................... 63 Figure 3.5