Small Bodies Assessment Group
Report to Planetary Science Subcommittee
October 1-2, 2013
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 1 SBAG Commi ee
• Steering Commi ee – Nancy Chabot (JHU/APL), Chair (8/13–8/16) – Mark Sykes (PSI), Past Chair (8/13–8/14) – Paul Abell (NASA JSC) (8/11–8/14) – Bonnie Bura (JPL) (8/13-8/16) – John Dankanich (NASA Glenn) (8/11–8/14) – Neil Dello Russo (JHU/APL) (8/12–8/15) – Yan Fernandez (UCF) (8/11–8/14) – Tommy Grav (PSI) (8/13-8/16) – Will Grundy (Lowell Obs.) (8/12–8/15) – Tim Swindle (Univ. Arizona) (8/12–8/15) • Representa ves – NASA SMD – Lindley Johnson (NASA HQ) – NASA HEOMD – John Connolly (NASA JSC) (changes since – SSERVI – Greg Schmidt (NASA ARC) August 1 in yellow)
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 2 • The 9th SBAG mee ng was held 10-11 July 2013 in Washington, DC. The ming was specifically chosen to enable the maximum community par cipa on in both the SBAG mee ng and the Target NEO 2 Workshop held on 9 July 2013 also in the Washington, DC area.
• The SBAG commi ee holds regular monthly telecons. Considera on of poten al SBAG responses to NASA’s RFI on science mission AOs (due 16 Oct.) is being led by Neil Dello Russo.
• The 10th SBAG mee ng is scheduled for 8-9 January 2014 in the Washington, DC area.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 3 Outline • Small Bodies, Big Science – NASA science missions and science highlights • Saving the World – planetary defense highlights • Stepping Stones to the Solar System – human explora on highlights • Current Concerns and Related Findings • Science Nuggets
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 4 2013 International Primitive Body Working Group
• Held in Nice, France, May 29-31
• Forum for small body science and exploration
• Program agenda included discussion of: – Goals of the major space agencies (NASA, ESA, JAXA, CSA, etc.) – Observational campaigns related to primitive bodies – Current and possible future missions to primitive bodies – Remote sensing and in-situ equipment and experiments – Data sharing policies – NEOs and the impact hazard – Human spaceflight and exploration 2013 IPEWG Outcomes and Issues
• Observed the need for input from cosmochemists and astrobiologists given interest in sample return missions and the interdisciplinary nature of primitive small bodies
• Recognized the emerging commercial interest in small body resources
• Stated the need for a well-defined international standard for data archiving from the International Planetary Data Alliance
• Plans to invite more international space agencies to future meetings (e.g., Russia, China, Brazil, India, etc.)
• Prospects for engagement of other international stakeholders with interest in small bodies (UN, commercial industries, non-profit organizations, etc.)
Dawn Mission Status
• Spacecraft is healthy and thrusting, en route to Ceres. • Arrival in April, 2015. • All instruments are off. • Next activity: calibrations Nov 9 – Dec 10. • Ceres planning underway.
Issues Being Tracked Products certified by PDS and available for PMDAP proposals: GRaND Level-1a data and higher level map products FC Level-1a and Level-1b data VIR Level-1a and Level-1b data Participating Scientists: Dawn@Vesta PS funding coming to an end Dawn@Ceres PS Program uncertain (possibly a year away to funds) Facing a PS gap Successes of the Deep Impact spacecraft Communication lost, declared dead 09/20/13 Cometary Structure Heterogeneity and and Activity Behavior
Abundant CO2
(Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UMD; http://epoxi.umd.edu/3gallery/20101118_Sunshine3.shtml)
(Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UMD; http://deepimpact.umd.edu/gallery/HRI_937_1.html)
Mass Loss as Lunar Hydration Snowballs
(Credit: NASA/UMD/J Sunshine; http://epoxi.umd.edu/3gallery/LH_figs.shtml) (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UMD; http://epoxi.umd.edu/3gallery/vid_20101118_AHearn1.shtml) SBAG Finding
Deep Impact Mission • FINDING #7 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • The extended Deep Impact mission is providing important and unique observa ons of comets, including simultaneous, me resolved observa ons of CO, CO2 and water. A number of important targets are available to Deep Impact for future observa ons including C/2012 S1 ISON, C/2013 A1 Siding Spring (making an extremely close approach to Mars and will be likely observed by Mars orbit and surface assets), and the highly evolved comet 2P/Encke.
• The Deep Impact mission is a testament to the success of the Discovery Program and the ground-breaking science that low cost missions can accomplish.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 9 New Horizons Pluto/KBO Mission Status • Successful 9-day, In-Flight Pluto Encounter Rehearsal (July 5-13, 2013) Ø Sequence ran flawlessly; NH is ready for Pluto! • Successful Annual Checkout (ACO-7: May-Aug 2013) Pluto & Charon Ø First separation of Pluto and Charon by NH (getting close!) Ø Nominal performance for all instruments and spacecraft subsystems • Successful Pluto System Science Conference (Jul 22-26) Ø ~150 Scientists at APL discussed current knowledge and made predictions for NH Pluto Encounter Ø Special volume of Icarus to be published in 2014 • Still searching for KBO target for NH Extended Mission Ø 51 new KBOs discovered, but none reachable by NH • Planning GIS and DIS for contingency KBOs Ø GIS = Generic Inner SHBOT Ø DIS = Deep Inner SHBOT Ø SHBOT = Safe Haven By Other Trajectory (dust hazard mitigation) 10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 10 OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission Origins-Spectral Interpreta on-Resource Iden fica on- Security-Regolith Explorer Science Objectives • Return and Analyze a Sample • Create Maps of the Asteroid • Document the Sample Site • Measure the Orbit Deviations • Compare to Telescope-based Observations
Mission Overview • Principal Investigator: Dr. Dante Lauretta, UA • Launch in September 2016 • Encounter asteroid Bennu in August 2018 • Study Bennu for up to 505 days • Obtain at least 60 g of pristine regolith/surface material • Return sample to Earth in September 2023 • Deliver samples to JSC curation facility
Recent News: • April, 2013: PDR successfully completed • May, 2013: Target asteroid named Bennu through public contest
Bennu 9/17/2013 11 C/2012 S1 ISON Campaign
• Dynamically new large sungrazing comet – Rare circumstances provide unique opportunity • Discovered at 6 AU (9/21/12), more than one year before perihelion (11/28/13). • Extreme surface erosion due to solar hea ng. HST Image of ISON • How will ISON evolve? • ISON presently brightening but fainter than some projec ons. – Comet produc vity lower than original projec ons, but most of the science goals s ll feasible. – As of September 14, gas produc on ~ 1028 molec/s (D. Schleicher, op cal photometry), may reach > 1030 at perihelion. • HST observa ons and present gas produc vity suggest a nucleus size of ~ 0.5 – 2 km radius. – Size of ISON means a good chance of perihelion survival either as a whole or of large fragments. C/2012 S1 ISON Campaign
• Upcoming Key Dates – Mars closest approach 0.07 AU 10/1/2013 – Mercury closest approach 0.24 AU 11/18/2013
– Perihelion 2.7RSun 11/28/2013 – Earth closest approach 0.42 AU 12/26/2013
• Some upcoming observing highlights • BRRISON observing window (Sep 17 – Oct 15) • Mars Express (Sep 24– Oct 6) • MRO (Sep 29 – Oct 2) • MAVEN (Dec 8 – 24) • NASA IRTF/Keck ground-based campaign (Oct 17 – Jan 26) • MESSENGER (Nov 19/20) • NASA sounding rocket FORTIS obs window (Nov 18 - 24) • STEREO spacecra observa ons (Oct 10 – Dec 7) • SOHO satellite (Nov 27 – 30) • HST (Oct 8 – Feb 3) ISON path through SOHO LASCO C3 camera • NASA Swi satellite (Oct 5 – 28) SBAG Finding
Comet ISON Campaign
• FINDING #5 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • Comet ISON presents a rare opportunity to study a poten ally bright, sun-grazing comet for many months prior to and possibly a er perihelion. The SBAG finds that the willing coordina on across NASA’s Science Mission Directorate to support the unique observa onal campaign through the use of spacecra assets, ground-based facili es, and the rapid response of an airborne balloon pla orm is proceeding and should help to maximize the scien fic return from this uncommon event.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 14 Outline • Small Bodies, Big Science – NASA science missions and science highlights • Saving the World – planetary defense highlights • Stepping Stones to the Solar System – human explora on highlights • Current Concerns and Related Findings • Science Nuggets
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 15 Gathering for Impact!
• Activities included a tour of Meteor Crater and special session on the Chelyabinsk impact event
• In addition, regular sessions were held to discuss: – Currently funded efforts related to planetary defense – State of the art in asteroid discovery – Physical characteristics of asteroids – Deflection techniques and spacecraft missions – Impact effects – Managing the consequences of an impact
• Highlight session involved a table top exercise based on a hypothetical 300 meter asteroid impacting near the Mediterranean coast of France 2013 PDC Conference Recommendations
• Discover: Find asteroids early in order to take appropriate action
• Characterize: Research will help us understand how a threatening asteroid will respond to a given mitigation technique
• Gain Confidence: Fly practice deflection missions
• Provide Disaster Mitigation Exercises: Educate emergency management personnel about the nature of an impact event
• Be Prepared: Identify, test, and develop technologies for planetary defense
• Expand International Efforts: Support UN efforts to foster cooperation among space agencies for coordinating planetary defense plans
• Communicate: Develop and enhance websites to convey information concerning planetary defense topics (e.g., impact risk, mission options, etc.) • 3.4 & 4.6 µm channels • Discover ~50-60 new NEOs/year, 25% of which are PHAs NEOWISE • Detect & obtain diameters/albedos Reactivation for ~2000 NEOs in 3 years • Same data delivery policies as before • Tracklets to MPC every few days, images and source extrac ons released annually • Life me limited by orbit precession to early 2017 • 1st contact with spacecra 9/25/13
11/2012 7/2013
Orbit right ascension of the ascending node projection Tracklet SBAG Finding
Restart the NEOWISE Mission • FINDING #1 FROM STEERING GROUP TELECON: APRIL 25, 2013 • The small bodies community strongly supports the immediate restart of the NEOWISE mission. There is urgency to restar ng the NEOWISE mission since the spacecra 's orbit is decaying. • HQ RESPONSE FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • We are currently evalua ng a proposal from JPL to turn WISE back on in support of enhancing our NEO detec on and characteriza on program. Assuming that we are able to secure the funding needed to adequately support a reac vated NEOWISE mission over an appropriate period of me, we then would move forward with this effort.
• SBAG is pleased with the successful reac va on of the NEOWISE mission.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 19 Outline • Small Bodies, Big Science – NASA science missions and science highlights • Saving the World – planetary defense highlights • Stepping Stones to the Solar System – human explora on highlights • Current Concerns and Related Findings • Science Nuggets
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 20 NASA’s Asteroid Ini a ve
From Associate Administrator Robert Lightfoot’s April 10 presentation at: http://www.nasa.gov/content/asteroid- initiative-related-documents
• June 18, 2013: NASA announces Asteroid Grand Challenge • “This Grand Challenge is focused on detecting and characterizing asteroids and learning how to deal with potential threats.” NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver 10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 21 • Purposely held the day prior to the SBAG meeting
• Presentations available at: http://targetneo.jhuapl.edu/
• Final report planned for release for public comment in the next few weeks.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 22 Sept. 14, 2013: • Mission Formulation Review (MFR) Results and Status presented for Asteroid Redirect Mission
From Associate Administrator Robert Lightfoot’s Sept. 14, 2013 presentation at: http://www.nasa.gov/content/asteroid-initiative-related-documents 10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 23 June 18, 2013: • RFI released for Asteroid Initiative, covering an Asteroid Redirect Mission and planetary defense • >400 responses received
Sept. 30 – Oct. 2, 2013: • LPI, Houston, TX • Reviewing the 96 top RFI responses • Sessions on: • Asteroid Observation • Asteroid Redirection Systems • Asteroid Deflection Demonstrations • Crowd Sourcing and Citizen Science • Partnerships and Participatory Engagement • Asteroid Capture Systems • Asteroid Crew Systems • Next Generation Engagement 10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 24 Outline • Small Bodies, Big Science – NASA science missions and science highlights • Saving the World – planetary defense highlights • Stepping Stones to the Solar System – human explora on highlights • Current Concerns and Related Findings • Science Nuggets
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 25 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
Dawn@Ceres Par cipa ng Scien st Program • FINDING #2 FROM STEERING GROUP MEETING (AT LPSC), March 20, 2013: • Dawn is currently scheduled to reach Ceres in April 2015, and it is valuable to have Par cipa ng Scien sts in place before the arrival. Time is of the essence to announce the opportunity for Dawn@Ceres proposals.
• HQ RESPONSE FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • We seek to con nue to provide PSP opportuni es taking into account lessons learned. A review of Dawn@Vesta must be undertaken before a Dawn@Ceres can be ini ated. We are currently in the process of collec ng input from the PSP program for Dawn@Vesta and will take that into account before we release a Dawn@Ceres PSP opportunity.
• SBAG is encouraged to hear of the plans to support a Dawn@Ceres PSP and urges any reviews to be completed quickly to enable this new opportunity to proceed. 10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 26 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
Travel Restric ons
• FINDING #2 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • The current NASA and government restric ons on travel and a endance at workshops, conferences, science team mee ngs, etc. is severely impac ng the ability of the planetary science and engineering communi es to conduct their work. The increased level of oversight forces a dispropor onate amount of me and effort by agency personnel to comply with the necessary waivers and forms to a end such func ons at the expense of focusing on NASA goals and objec ves.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 27 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
Planetary Defense Office
• FINDING #3 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • NASA recently announced a Grand Challenge to protect the Earth's popula on from extraterrestrial impacts. This effort will involve mul ple NASA directorates (SMD, HEOMD, and STMD), US agencies (DHS, FEMA, DoD, DoE, State, etc.) and interna onal partners, and the SBAG notes that currently there is only one expert at NASA HQ who is conversant with the issues of planetary defense.
• SBAG finds that establishing a Planetary Defense Office with enough individuals with required skills and exper se would help NASA to more effec vely interface with these diverse en es and provide the exper se required to implement the Grand Challenge.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 28 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml Support of Decadal Survey Priori es • FINDING #3 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • The planetary Decadal Survey states the importance of a balanced por olio of mission classes and makes clear recommenda ons for how programs should be priori zed if fiscal condi ons are worse than an cipated: “If cuts to the program are necessary, the commi ee recommends that the first approach should be descoping or delaying Flagship missions. Changes to the New Fron ers or Discovery programs should be considered only if adjustments to Flagship missions cannot solve the problem. And high priority should be placed on preserving funding for Research and Analysis programs and for technology development.”
• SBAG strongly supports the priori es as outlined in the Decadal Survey and urges restoring the Discovery cadence and reducing the funding stress experienced by the Research and Analysis programs by following the Decadal Survey guidelines for the current, challenging fiscal environment.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 29 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
NEO Survey Telescope • FINDING #4 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • A NEO survey telescope is a founda onal asset that will significantly enhance the ability of NASA to properly evaluate its human explora on objec ves, perform valuable science, iden fy poten al candidates for in situ resource u liza on, and achieve its Grand Challenge with respect to defending Earth's popula ons from hazardous asteroids. The new Asteroid Ini a ve only serves to highlight the importance of this founda onal asset. Any reliance solely upon outside en es to fund, build, and operate such an asset, whose success is beyond NASA control, places NASA’s goals and objec ves at risk.
• SBAG reiterates its strong support for the importance of a space-based NEO survey telescope to NASA goals and finds that making such an asset a NASA priority would be consistent with the agency’s Grand Challenge for planetary defense.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 30 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
Impactor for Surface and Interior Structure (ISIS) Mission • FINDING #6 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • JPL is leading a study for a non-competed mission to be co-manifested with the Mars InSight spacecra and impact the OSIRIS-REx target asteroid Bennu as a planetary defense demonstra on. Significant savings are realized in launch vehicle costs (by the co-manifest) and use of OSIRIS- REx (mi ga ng the need for a second spacecra component to study the impact results).
• SBAG finds that while studying a full-scale hypervelocity impact event and tes ng a basic planetary defense scenario are important, the benefit of ISIS has not been determined to exceed those gained from PSD funds being used to support the priori es outlined in the Decadal Survey, such as a regular cadence of competed Discovery missions and a robust R&A program.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 31 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
Asteroid Redirect & Return Mission (ARRM) • FINDING #8 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • (a) Planetary Science. ARRM has been defined as not being a science mission, and it is not a cost effec ve way to address science goals achievable through sample return. Support of ARRM with planetary science resources is not appropriate.
• (b) Searching for Poten ally Hazardous Objects. There is great value in enhancing NASA's capabili es in small body discovery and characteriza on. The enhancement to NEO discovery and characteriza on efforts proposed as part of the Asteroid Ini a ve would be greater s ll if it were to be con nued for more than one year. There is concern that a focus on acquiring ARRM targets can come at the expense of the detec on rate and follow-up observa ons of 140m and larger asteroids.
• (c) Relevance of ARRM to Planetary Defense. Given the size of the ARRM target (< 10m), ARRM has limited relevance to planetary defense.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 32 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
Asteroid Redirect & Return Mission (ARRM) • FINDING #8 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • (d) Mission Objec ves. ARRM does not have clearly defined objec ves, which makes it premature to commit significant resources to its development. Firm baseline and minimum requirements must be set. SBAG finds that forma on of an independent Mission Defini on Team (MDT) prior to commitment of significant resources and mission confirma on would allow for community par cipa on in the relevant fields for the mission and provide a non-advocate peer review of the expected benefit if mission success criteria are met.
• (e) Target issues. The popula on and physical characteris cs of low delta-velocity targets having diameters less than 10m are poorly constrained by observa ons. It is imprac cal to begin the planning and design of any mission to capture such an asteroid in the absence of a pre-exis ng study on the popula on and the physical characteris cs of its members. A robust characteriza on campaign is impera ve. Target characteriza on will be challenging and is expected to be of the utmost importance to mission success.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 33 Findings are summarized. Full findings available at: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/sbag/findings/index.shtml
Asteroid Redirect & Return Mission (ARRM) • FINDING #8 FROM SBAG MEETING, JULY 10-11, 2013: • (f) Schedule risks. Because of long-synodic periods, a missed launch window will not be recoverable for the same ARRM target. Therefore, mul ple targets mee ng orbital and physical characteris c requirements and having appropriately phased launch windows will need to be discovered. Given the poor knowledge of the popula on of these objects, this is a significant mission risk. The stated schedule for the ARRM, which posits funding of a ~$100M study in FY14 and launch in 2017, is unrealis c.
• (g) Cost risks. As a mission that serves as a technology and opera ons demonstrator, the management approach and acceptance of risk needs to be be er defined to determine the feasibility of the aggressive schedule and its impact on cost and mission success criteria. The full-cost target, funding profile, and funding sources are not provided and limit any credible assessment of the schedule and mission cost to the various directorates. Lack of clarity of both resources available and resources required limits any determina on of mission value, merit, and/or whether the mission is the most efficient use of available resources to achieve NASA’s objec ves.
10/02/2013 Planetary Science Subcommi ee 34 Comet ISON Observing Campaign • NASA-NSF Opportunity Le er: e.g. SMA, GEMINI • NASA KECK Public Call - 12 par al nights scheduled (MOWG) • NASA IRTF Public Call – 200 hours over 39 nights now scheduled • NSO Solar Telescope Observing: Sunspot/Dunn; KPNO/McMath-Pierce; Big Bear • Mars Fleet: MRO,MAVEN, Curiosity, Opportunity, Mars Express. Bonus: Observing prac ce for Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) VERY close Mars approach in Oct 2014 • Venus & Mercury: MESSENGER to Obtain Near-Planet Comparison to Comet 2P/Encke Venus Express to obtain observa ons post-perihelion in December. • Solar Fleet: Hinode, SDO, SOHO, STEREO, following up on Comet 2011 W3 (Lovejoy) • Other NASA Spacecra (Astrophysics): SWIFT, HST, Spitzer, Chandra... (>18 s/c to observe!) • CIOC WORKSHOP: Aug 1-2, 2013 at APL h ps://dnnpro.outer.jhuapl.edu/isonworkshop • CIOC Website (informa on, news, links, no archiving) h p://www.isoncampaign.org • NASA CIOC Facebook page, blogs; Amateur involvement; CARA & other “professional amateurs” • NASA HQ EPO: Ask an Astronomer; Media Point of Contact – e.g. NHK, Discovery Channel, BBC, etc. Background image: HST, May 2013; Science Nugget: C. M. Lisse (JHU/APL)