EUROPE’S EVOLVING DETERRENCE DISCOURSE EDITED BY AMELIA MORGAN AND ANNA PÉCZELI Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory February 2021 EUROPE’S EVOLVING DETERRENCE DISCOURSE EDITED BY AMELIA MORGAN AND ANNA PÉCZELI Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory King's College London Science Applications International Corporation February 2021 EUROPE’S EVOLVING DETERRENCE DISCOURSE | 1 This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. The views and opinions of the author expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. ISBN-978-1-952565-09-0 LCCN-2020922986 LLNL-TR-815694 TPG-60099 2 | AMELIA MORGAN AND ANNA PÉCZELI Contents About the Contributors 2 Preface Brad Roberts 7 Introduction Amelia Morgan and Heather Williams 8 The (Incomplete) Return of Deterrence Michael Rühle 13 The German Debate: The Bundestag and Nuclear Deterrence Pia Fuhrhop 27 The Dutch Debate: Activism vs. Pragmatism Michal Onderco 39 French Perspectives on Disarmament and Deterrence Emmanuelle Maitre 51 Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control: A NATO Perspective Jessica Cox and Joseph Dobbs 66 Defining the Needed Balance of Deterrence and Arms Control in Europe Anna Péczeli 74 Restoring the Balancing Act: Disarmament and Deterrence in the New Era Łukasz Kulesa 93 Rethinking the Impact of Emerging Technologies on Strategic Stability Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli 105 Artificial Intelligence and Deterrence: A View from Europe Laura Siddi 121 A Practitioner’s Perspective: Modern Deterrence and the U.S.–U.K. Relationship Peter Watkins 140 Transatlantic Deterrence: Taking Stock and Looking Forward Gregory F Giles 146 EUROPE’S EVOLVING DETERRENCE DISCOURSE | 1 About the Contributors Jessica L. Cox has served as director of nuclear policy at NATO since 2018, before which she served as director for arms control in the U.S. National Security Council and in positions in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, U.S. Depart- ment of Defense. Joseph Dobbs joined the Nuclear Policy Directorate at NATO in July 2020 after serving as a policy analyst to the U.K. House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee, before which he was a research fellow and project manager at the Europe- an Leadership Network. Pia Fuhrhop has been head of the Berlin office of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) since September 2019. She previously worked as a foreign pol- icy advisor to Omid Nouripour, a member of the German Bundestag. Further positions in her professional career were the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. In these functions, she is committed to the intensive exchange of science and politics. Her research inter- ests include transatlantic crisis management, particularly in Syria, Afghanistan, and the Balkans. She has dealt intensively with the direction and foundations of German foreign and security policy, from crisis management to the reform of the Bundeswehr. At the Free University of Berlin, she did her doctorate on the role of European alliance partners in transatlantic crisis management. As part of her doctorate, she was a guest researcher at the American Institute for Contemporary Germany Studies (AICGS) in Washington, DC. Greg Giles is a senior director with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), where he advises U.S. government decision makers on issues pertaining to deterrence, nonproliferation, and the Middle East. He has published widely and testi- fied before Congress on these subjects. Giles has guest lectured at the U.S. Air Force and Army War Colleges, as well as the Saudi Arabian War College in Riyadh, and the NATO Defense College in Rome. Prior to joining SAIC in 1989, he worked as a staff assistant in the British House of Commons, the United Nations General Assembly, and the U.S. House and Senate. He has a bachelor’s degree in international studies and political science from Dickinson College and a master’s degree in international affairs from Columbia University. He is a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and is the president of Giles Consulting, LLC. 2 | AMELIA MORGAN AND ANNA PÉCZELI Andrea Gilli is a researcher at the NATO Defense College in Rome where he works on defense innovation, military transformation, and armed forces modernization. Gilli holds a Ph.D. in social and political science from the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. In 2015, he was awarded the European Defence Agency and Egmont Institute’s biannual prize for the best dissertation on European defense, security, and strategy. Gilli has provided consulting services to both private and public organiza- tions, including the E.U. Military Committee and the U.S. Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment. He has worked and conducted research for or been asso- ciated with several institutions, including the Royal United Services Institute, the Eu- ropean Union Institute for Security Studies, the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, and the Belfer Center for Science and International Af- fairs at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. His research has been published or is forthcoming in International Security, Security Studies, The RUSI Journal, and the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage website. Mauro Gilli is a senior researcher in military technology and international security at the Center for Security Studies of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH-Zurich). He has a Ph.D. in political science from Northwestern University and was a postdoctoral fellow at Dartmouth College’s Dickey Center. He has provided consulting services to both private and public organizations, including the Office of Net Assessment of the U.S. Department of Defense. His research has been published in International Security, Security Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, Social Science Quarterly, and PlosOne, and has received coverage in The Economist, The Washington Post, Foreign Policy–The Diplomat, and others. Łukasz Kulesa is a researcher at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) and senior associate at the European Leadership Network. Between 2014 and 2019, Kulesa worked as research director at the European Leadership Network (ELN). Previously, he worked as the head of the Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Project at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), and between 2010–2012 as deputy director of the Strategic Analyses Department at the National Security Bureau, a body providing aid and support to the President of the Republic of Poland in execut- ing security and defense tasks. His interests include nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, Russian security policy, NATO, nuclear and conventional deterrence, the role of missile defense, and the future of arms control. Łukasz is a graduate of the law department of the Jagiellonian University (Cracow). He holds a master of arts degree in international relations and European studies from the Central European University (Budapest). EUROPE’S EVOLVING DETERRENCE DISCOURSE | 3 Emmanuelle Maitre has worked as a research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) since July 2014. A graduate of the Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po), she works on issues of nuclear nonproliferation, deterrence, and disarmament. Before joining FRS and after working as a consultant in the private sector, Maitre worked as a research assistant at the Centre for Arms Control Studies (CESIM) and the Brookings Institution. Amelia Morgan is a research associate at the Center for Science and Security Stud- ies and a doctoral candidate in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, where her research is fully funded by the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom. She also teaches on a range of defense and security issues at the Joint Services Command and Staff College in Shrivenham. Morgan previously worked at the Policy Institute at King’s and as an intelligence analyst in the private sector. Michal Onderco is assistant professor of international relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam. His current re- search concerns two main areas. First, he is interested in informal state cooperation in institutionalized settings in international politics, particularly in the area of nuclear nonproliferation. Second, he is interested in domestic sources of foreign and securi- ty policy in Europe. During the academic year 2018–2019, Dr. Onderco was a junior faculty fellow at Stanford University’s CISAC. Before coming to Erasmus University, he obtained his Ph.D. in political science from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam in 2014. In the academic year 2014–2015, he was a Max Weber fellow at the European Universi- ty Institute. Between 2012–2013, he was a Fulbright visiting researcher at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. Anna Péczeli is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Center for Global Security Re- search at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. She is also an affiliate at CISAC at Stanford University, and an adjunct fellow