LETTER FROM HEADQUARTERS

MORE THAN JUST A CLIMATE REPORT

he “State of the Climate in 2014” report is now I strongly encourage you to set aside some time to posted online and bundled with this issue of explore the SoC. I think you will be surprised how T BAMS. This is the 25th report in this important much of it you end up reading. annual series, as well as the 20th report that has While 2014 extreme weather events are cata- been produced in conjunction with AMS for publica- logued as part of the SoC, the relationship between tion in BAMS. In the early years, the those weather events and expected annual climate assessment was short changes in regional weather in light of enough (on the order of 50 pages) to climate change is not in the purview be included as the final pages of the of the SoC. Those issues are left to a BAMS issue that carried it. For several separate collection of research papers years now, however, the State of the that will be published in BAMS later Climate (SoC) report has been well this year under the banner “Explain- over 200 pages, so those of you who ing Extreme Events from a Climate get BAMS in the mail have gotten a Perspective.” separate bound copy of the SoC with Compilation of the SoC was ably your July issue. led again this year by Jessica Blunden The SoC represents the work of and Derek Arndt at NOAA’s National hundreds of authors from around Centers for Environmental Informa- the world to create a comprehensive tion, and I want to thank NOAA for picture of the global and regional climate over the its sustained leadership in these annual climate assess- course of the prior year. In addition, the SoC provides ments over the past quarter of a century. Independent time series of Essential Climate Variables defined by peer review for this year’s SoC was handled by AMS the Global Climate Observing System, making it easy under the guidance of Richard Rosen, and I know he to see how 2014 compared to prior years for each of joins me in thanking the many reviewers who provided those variables and other major climate indicators. excellent and rigorous reviews under very tight time It is this aspect—placing the year’s observations in frames to allow the SoC to be available just a half-year the context of our changing global climate—that after the end of the year it describes. makes the SoC particularly useful for all of us in the community. Over the past 25 years, these annual climate assessments have shown the value of care- ful and consistent monitoring of the climate, and that changes occurring in the climate system are Keith L. Seitter, CCM increasingly evident across a wide range of variables. Executive Director

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JULY 2015 | 1187 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 05:23 AM UTC ABOUT OUR MEMBERS

AMS Members and Fellows Graeme Stephens and as a research scientist and promoted to senior research Eric F. Wood were recently elected to the National scientist in 1982. From 1979 to 1980, Stephens served as Academy of Engineering (NAE). a postdoctoral research student at the Colorado State Wood holds the Susan Dod Brown Professorship University Department of Atmospheric Science. He in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Princeton joined the faculty as an associate professor in 1984 and University, where he has taught since 1976. He received was promoted to full professor in 1991. His research his undergraduate degree in civil engineering at the activities focus on atmospheric radiation including the University of British Columbia (Canada) and his Sc.D. application of remote sensing in climate research to un- in civil engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of derstand the role of hydrological processes in climate Technology. His research area is in hydroclimatology change. He also serves as the primary investigator of with an emphasis on the modeling and analysis of the the NASA CloudSat Mission and associated research global water and energy cycles through land surface group, which has launched a satellite to study the modeling, satellite remote sensing, and data analysis. internals of clouds using equipment similar to radar. He was elected to the National Academy of Engineering They will be formally inducted at the Annual NAE for “development of land surface models and use of re- meeting in Washington, D.C., in early October. mote sensing for hydrologic modeling and prediction.” Stephens completed his B.S. with honors from the Chris Cimino, meteorologist for NBC’s flagship sta- University of Melbourne in 1973 and received his Ph.D. tion in , was honored at the 40th annual din- in 1977 from the same university. He was appointed to ner of the Communications Alumni of the City College the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research in 1977 of New York (CCNY) in May at the National Arts

ON-AIR METEOROLOGY 10 QUESTIONS WITH . . . A new series of profiles celebrating AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologists and Sealholders

Jim Flowers Meteorologist, KMTV, Omaha, Nebraska

What inspired you to go into broadcast- ing? When I graduated from Penn State I wanted to go into the NWS, but there was a freeze on government hiring. A friend told me of an opening in a TV station in Columbia, South Carolina. I was hired because I looked “Charlestonian.”

How has the field changed since you started? When I began 36 years ago, we had magnetic symbols for our maps. I used a weather service radar drop, white on black with six or eight colors of data. We had one satellite photo a day taken from our paper facsimile recorder.

What technology could you not live without? Radar, and especially Doppler radar. In my early days we had a PPI scope and RHI scope and that was it. I did manage to find several hook echoes and nice hail shafts. The products available today are mind blowing and get better all the time.

How do you want to be remembered? As a meteorologist who cared about those people that watched every day and one that always put their safety first. As a meteorologist who never stopped learning and was willing to pass along that knowledge to over three dozen meteorologists so that it would never be lost. As a meteorologist that always found time to spend with his wife and family in a very difficult profession.

1188 | JULY 2015 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 05:23 AM UTC Club. A 1983 CCNY alum, he will be inducted into the Weather Service’s station in Communications Alumni Hall of Fame, recognizing Brownsville, Texas. outstanding career achievements by media and com- Drillette is responsible munications professionals who attended the college. for overseeing operations Cimino is the meteorologist on WNBC television’s at the station and ensuring early-morning news program, Today in New York in the state receives timely , and a substitute meteorologist for the and accurate weather warn- NBC network’s Today program. ings, forecasts, and climate He joined WNBC in December 1995 after serv- information. He also will ing as the weekend meteorologist at WTXF-TV in work with emergency man- , , for almost a year. Before agement officials and the that, Cimino worked as a meteorologist in the Cincin- media in providing weather nati, Ohio, television market and on the radio with awareness, preparedness, Steve Drillette Compu-Weather and Metro Weather Service and and safety education. WROC-TV in Rochester, New York. Drillette earned a bachelor’s degree in meteorology from Texas A&M University in 1983, and worked as Steve Drillette is now meteorologist-in-charge at a television meteorologist in Bryan, Texas. He says he the National Weather Service’s North Little Rock mainly dealt with drought conditions and hurricane station. He took over the station that monitors forecasts while at Brownsville, but also faced torna- weather in 45 of Arkansas’s 75 counties in April, does and flash flooding—weather events prevalent in transferring from the same position he held at the Arkansas—in western Texas.

ON-AIR METEOROLOGY

What’s been your most difficult moment on-air? My best and worst moments on the air happened at the same time. Several years ago, a tornado hit the Little Sioux scout camp in Iowa. We were on the air for 13 straight hours. The scouts had 15–20 minutes lead time on the tornado warning. We had chasers live on the air who actu- ally drove through the tornado. The scouts followed their tornado safety procedures and went to the designated shelter. The system worked—or so we thought. I did my job to the best of my ability that day, but it wasn’t good enough. Four scouts died that evening. I found that out as we turned our coverage over to the morning crew. That was the worst moment on-air and likely my worst day in broadcasting.

Who has been your biggest role model? Dick Goddard, a broadcast meteorologist in Cleveland. My first inter- view was at his station. Dick is one of the original sealholders and is still on the air. I couldn’t have picked a better role model to follow.

If you weren’t a broadcaster, what do you think you would be? I started out in biology, before changing majors; in fact, I have a minor in biology. I would be a biologist or possibly an EMT or something in the medical field.

How do you deal with criticism over forecasts that don’t pan out? I have always tried to explain why the forecast didn’t work out. In most cases this can be done by showing a graphic of temperatures, moisture, boundar- ies, etc. that impacted the forecast.

What weather myths do you hear the most? Tornadoes will not cross rivers or bodies of water. That myth was proven wrong when a tornado descended on Council Bluffs, Iowa, and practically landed in the Missouri River as the funnel descended.

What did you learn in school that is most helpful as a broadcast meteorologist? I was lucky to attend Penn State University and learn from the best. People like John Cahir, Joel Myers, Toby Carlson, and Alistair Fraser taught me how to think as a meteorologist, and for that I am eternally grateful.

Jim Flowers earned his Television Seal of Approval in 1981. For more on AMS Certification Programs, go to www.ametsoc .org/amscert/index.html.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JULY 2015 | 1189 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 05:23 AM UTC LIVING ON THE REAL WORLD

[Editor’s Note: The following post is adapted from William Hooke’s blog, Living on the Real World (www.livingon therealworld.org/). Hooke is the former director of the AMS Policy Program and currently a senior policy fellow.]

The Case for the Geosciences minds. Scientists, political leaders, and the general Originally posted on 27 March 2015 public all understood the role of science and technol- ogy in helping to win the war, and the importance of Recent months have seen a bit of back-and-forth be- continuing strategic investments in science, especially tween Congress and the scientific community about the physical sciences, in the face of Soviet aggression the value of geosciences research. Throughout this worldwide throughout the years of the Cold War. discussion, there’s been a tendency for advocates to We tend to lose sight of the earlier national his- see funds for science as extremely limited; to view tory. Prior to World War II, the United States was investments in different fields of science and technol- just as preoccupied with national security. But the ogy as a zero-sum game; and to focus on jobs creation, policies and coping strategies took a different form. and the state-by-state distribution of those jobs, as the The former colonies and the young nation relied on paramount concern. This mind-set has tempted some a measure of protection provided by the world’s vast members of Congress, and some scientists and policy oceans. Americans realized that the key to economic analysts from other fields, to question the contribu- opportunity was the continent’s seemingly limitless tions of geosciences to the economy relative to the store of natural resources, and the transportation in- stimulus provided by other R&D, say information tech- frastructure needed to bring those resources to world nology or biotechnology. The truth remains, though, markets—globally, across those same vast oceans, and that credible economic justification for the various domestically, especially in the early days before rail, views, pro and con, has proved hard to come by. The by river and canal. West Point was established in 1802, analyses and arguments on all sides have been frag- with a military focus but an educational emphasis on mented, anecdotal, narrowly focused—and arguably engineering that would evolve into today’s U.S. Army a bit too disputatious, misdirected, and shortsighted. Corps of Engineers, with its capabilities for managing It might therefore be useful to pause, and to step waterways, building canals, and providing safety in back a bit from the particulars, in order to look at the face of floods. The Survey of the Coast, to assess the larger context, the sweep of history, and the and ensure the navigability of the harbors and coastal challenges of the future. To do this is to discover that waters so important for trade, and the progenitor America’s focus on the geosciences has been endur- of NOAA’s National Ocean Service and the NOAA ing; that the geoscience of the past two centuries has Commissioned Officers Corp, was established in led to America’s preeminent and indispensable place 1807. A series of great scientific explorations of the in the world today; and that going forward the stakes continent followed, with the twin aims of inventory- riding on progress in the geosciences have never ing natural resources of every type and identifying been higher, nor the urgency greater. Such a 360° and staving off security threats: The Lewis and Clark view also reveals that investments in science are not expedition of 1804–06. The Zebulon Pike explora- zero-sum but synergistic. If the United States, with tions of 1806–07. The Wilkes expedition of 1838–42. just four percent of the world’s population, aspires to John Wesley Powell’s exploration along the Colorado remain the indispensable nation through the end of River in 1869. Myriad other efforts of lesser scope the twenty-first century, we’ll have to earn that label were sandwiched in between. These were paralleled anew. Sustained, high levels of balanced investment by Navy studies led by Matthew Fountaine Maury and not just in the geosciences, but across the whole others to characterize the navigability and resources of physical, natural, and social sciences, as well as of world’s oceans and coasts. Meanwhile, during the engineering and STEM education, will be essential. Civil War, the Morrill Act of 1862 established land- grant colleges with a focus on education in agriculture BACKGROUND: SCIENCE POLICY IN THE and industry. In 1870, the nation expanded the U.S. UNITED STATES AND ITS LEGACY. Most Army Signal Service mandate to include responsibil- of us have a tendency to see U.S. science policy as ity for weather, climate, and river observations and originating post-World-War II. Certainly that shared forecasting services to meet the needs of agriculture experience and the horrific loss of life served to focus and public safety. [In the 1890s, this unit would be

1190 | JULY 2015 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 05:23 AM UTC moved into USDA; today, housed in the Department lenges. As early as the late nineteenth century we began of Commerce, it’s NOAA’s National Weather Service.] to recognize that our footprint on the environment, on The U.S. Geological Survey was established in 1879. habitats and landscapes, on biodiversity, and the chemis- There’s much more texture to the narrative, but here’s try of our air, water, and soil could no longer be ignored. the bottom line. Up to the present, our national pros- Here again, thanks to progress in the geosciences, and pects and standing in the world have remained funda- thanks to action by political leaders, business, and the mentally aligned with our ability to identify and locate, public, America has joined other nations worldwide in and then master the management of natural resources, early detection of emerging environmental problems, including but not limited to food, water, and energy. To dealing with them at home, and helping out abroad maintain our current world position it is not enough that in ways that foster our national security, maintain our we simply meet our own needs domestically and market standing as a good neighbor, and make the world a any small surplus to others. Our government and private better place for everyone, not just ourselves. But we’ve sector have to be so adept that they can continue to serve lost our naiveté: we now know that the Earth is not just as trusted consultants and advisors to a hungry, thirsty, a resource and a threat; it is also a victim. energy-needy world. A high bar indeed. Throughout this two-century span, the geoscienc- During the time we had been discovering and es have provided all manner of practical help with re- coming to appreciate fully the true value of our gard to each of these three defining challenges. We’ve natural resource base, we also uncovered two ad- developed the geospatial information base needed ditional—and more sobering—realities. to inventory our resources and match them against First, we’ve learned to our dismay that we live national and worldwide needs. We’ve provided the on some of the world’s most hazardous real estate. weather, water, and climate information needed to Disastrous cycles of flood and drought mark every make America the breadbasket to the world; making region of our vast country. We experience as many and sharing the advances needed to reinvigorate the tropical storms as tropical nations in the western Pa- Green Revolution of past decades so that we can sus- cific. We suffer through as many winter storms—and tain a world of 9 billion versus 7 billion people. We’ve bad winters—as high-latitude nations such as Canada developed new tools for monitoring water availability, or Russia. We have a virtual lock on the world’s tor- quality, and use. We’ve uncovered new ways to access nadoes. Subduction zones of the type triggering the old energy sources and returned the United States to 2004 Indonesian tsunami and the 2011 Japanese tsu- its position as a leading exporter as opposed to an nami lie just offshore of our own Pacific Northwest. importer of energy. We’ve done the geoscience neces- We have dozens of active volcanoes and some major sary to support solar and wind-power technologies. dormant ones. Our west coast is laced throughout We’ve identified a new, twenty first-century hazard with dangerous seismicity, but the earthquake threat —space weather—and developed coping measures also lies poised throughout the nation’s midsection to handle that threat. We’ve so far avoided the worst and along the Middle Atlantic states. Hundreds of of the environmental crises we see emerging in other thousands of people—including the employees of countries such as Indonesia and China. iconic economic giants such as Boeing and Micro- In addition, the geosciences have at the same time soft—live and commute across former mudslides made fundamental contributions to our understand- slipping from the flanks of Mount Rainier. Most of ing of science and the universe itself. In 1776, people the natural gas pipelines servicing the northeastern the world over held three ideas to be true: United States run through the site of the 1812 New Madrid earthquakes in Missouri. Our vulnerabilities • The climate is unchanging. are rife and growing. A big part of any national risk • Weather is unpredictable. management strategy has to cope with these and • The assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is similar hazards. Again, we have the challenge and infinite. opportunity not simply to meet our responsibilities for domestic risk management, but to market and The geosciences haven’t just tweaked or fine- contribute our science and services to other nations tuned these ideas, but turned each on its ear. Stud- facing similar problems worldwide. ies of weather prediction led to the discovery of a Second, our scientific and economic success over the wholly-new class of physical phenomena—chaotic past two centuries has created new environmental chal- systems—which have since been found to populate

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JULY 2015 | 1191 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/28/21 05:23 AM UTC every nook and cranny across the span of the universe strikes and missiles have been harnessed to monitor itself. Studies of Earth and exotic forms of life known severe weather threats. The nuclear physics used to as extremophiles found in seafloor-spreading sites, build warheads has spawned a raft of isotopic tech- in Antarctic ice, and at great depths in the Earth’s niques for studying Earth’s chemistry, identifying the crust, have motivated, informed, and improved the sources of pollution, reaching back in time to assess effectiveness of the study of other planets in the solar past climate variability, and more.] system and other solar systems across the galaxy. A RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES AWAITS. THE NEW CHALLENGE AND URGENCY At one end of the spectrum of possible outcomes, we FOR THE FUTURE. So far, so good. But the fact is fail to muster the political will and national consensus that our geoscience has enabled us to see the outlines needed to advance the geosciences in a balanced way of an unprecedented national and global challenge with progress in other R&D in related fields, and we coming our way—and on nature’s hurried timetable, slowly fall behind in our efforts to sustain resources, not the more relaxed pace we might desire. The three build resilience to hazards, and maintain ecosystem trends—the world’s population and appetite for services. Our options gradually erode, economic resources, vulnerability to the disruptive impacts of growth is first constrained and then begins to decline, hazards, and disruption of the ecosystem services on and political polarization increases in response to the which we depend—have grown so extensive, com- attendant social stresses. plex, and fast-paced that it no longer suffices to treat At the other end of the spectrum of possibilities, them in isolation. We can sustain human progress we invest aggressively but deliberately in science and and prospects only by managing all three of these innovation across the board, and place emphasis on challenges simultaneously—globally, to be sure, but rapid-prototyping and infusion of new knowledge and actually everywhere locally. We don’t possess the sci- ways of doing business across our land. We support ence needed to handle each of these three pieces to the STEM education needed to provide the twenty- the twenty first-century puzzle separately, let alone first century workforce and the public support for this in combination. Much further work is required, and work—and at the same time equip that same public to on an accelerated time frame. hold both scientists and political leaders accountable The good news is that we’re close—and that for their performance. We recognize that there is no progress in other areas of science and technology has way that the United States can prosper for any extend- given us new tools for dealing with the geoscience ed period unless the entire world is enjoying a measure problems we face. Computing power. Communica- of that same prosperity. We therefore put our house in tion. Experience managing big data. Supplementary order domestically, but share what we’re learning with pieces of the puzzle from fields such as biology and other nations—and learn from their experiences—so ecology. Social science for helping 9 billion people that the world as a whole makes progress together. navigate the psychological, social, and institutional Our options steadily expand. Economic growth—true adjustments needed to adjust to the new realities. In- economic growth, with minimal externalities—accel- novative policy options. But we can’t rest on our oars. erates. In fact, the economic growth is so great that the To meet this challenge will require our best, united costs of the investment, which had seemed significant efforts over coming decades. to start, recede into the background. Domestic and [Another historical aside: Since the end of World world politics become more civil; national security, the War II, the United States has been forced to match or primary policy preoccupation all along, is maintained exceed Soviet military build-up step-by-step. But that and even enhanced. didn’t distract us from our resolute focus on natural These last considerations should make it clear. The resources, hazards, and the environment. The rock- issue is not more funding for geosciences, or science etry developed to launch nuclear missiles was quickly more broadly, alone, though such emphasis is essential. put to work to orbit weather satellites to collect and The issue is for more innovation and application of that communicate data for initializing computer models. innovation for the benefit of life. That’s going to require Space-based satellite military surveillance has been an effective governing policy framework and public will. extended to monitor crops, forests, ice, and other To work on these problems? With the rest of you? land, ocean, and atmospheric conditions from pole What a great time to be alive! The only better time is to pole. The radars developed to detect inbound air tomorrow. And the next day.

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