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Vol. 45: 99–107, 2021 ENDANGERED SPECIES RESEARCH Published June 3 https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01128 Endang Species Res OPEN ACCESS Characterizing suitable habitat for the largest remaining population of the threatened Florida scrub-jay Aphelocoma coerulescens Karl E. Miller*, Colin P. Shea Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, 1105 SW Williston Road, Gainesville, FL 32601, USA ABSTRACT: Birds that breed in early-successional shrubland habitats are declining throughout North America. The Florida scrub-jay Aphelocoma coerulescens depends on Florida scrub, a shrubland plant community endemic to peninsular Florida, USA. The Florida scrub-jay is non - migratory, federally listed as threatened, globally listed as Vulnerable, and experiencing ongoing population declines. The largest remaining population occurs in Ocala National Forest (Ocala NF), where the effects of intensive management of scrub for forest product extraction are unknown. During 2011−2014, we conducted the first quantitative evaluation of Florida scrub-jay density and productivity at Ocala NF in relation to the age, size, and connectivity of early-succes- sional habitat patches. Regenerating clearcut stands 3−10 yr post-harvest provided suitable habi- tat conditions for Florida scrub-jays, with the maximum number of family groups and juveniles occurring in stands 6.5 and 7.4 yr post-harvest, respectively. Our findings indicate that previous definitions of suitable habitat for the species in Ocala NF (e.g. 0−20, 3−15, 3−12 yr post-harvest) are overly broad. We suggest that managers define suitable habitat conservatively given that few stands >10 yr post-harvest were occupied by scrub-jays, and annual productivity in those stands was relatively low. Our findings that scrub-jays readily occupied small scrub patches and did not avoid forested edges should be interpreted with caution, and more demographic study is needed to understand survival and dispersal among patches. Managers can maximize Florida scrub-jay populations in Ocala NF by increasing the availability of habitat that is within 3−10 yr post-harvest. KEY WORDS: Shrubland birds · Florida scrub-jay · Suitable habitat · Density · Productivity · Florida scrub 1. INTRODUCTION agement challenges and opportunities (Askins 2001, 2002, Thompson & DeGraaf 2001, DeGraaf & Yama - Birds that breed in early-successional shrubland saki 2003, Litvaitis 2003, Shake et al. 2012). Shrub- habitats are declining more rapidly than most bird land habitats are now among the rarest habitats in species in North America (Hunter et al. 2001, Dett - the northeastern USA (DeGraaf & Yamasaki 2003). In mers 2003), and quantifying and managing suitable Florida, early-successional upland plant communi- habitat for these species is critically important. ties (shrublands, dry prairie, and scrub) have been Shrub land habitats rely on disturbance, both natural converted to agriculture at a more rapid pace than and anthropogenic, and alteration of spatial and tem- has any other plant community in the state (Kautz et poral patterns of disturbance presents ongoing man- al. 2007). © The authors 2021. Open Access under Creative Commons by *Corresponding author: [email protected] Attribution Licence. Use, distribution and reproduction are un - restricted. Authors and original publication must be credited. Publisher: Inter-Research · www.int-res.com 100 Endang Species Res 45: 99–107, 2021 The Florida scrub-jay Aphelocoma coerulescens is negatively affected by proximity to forest edge, par- a habitat-restricted endemic species that continues to ticularly hardwood forest (Breininger et al. 1995, decline because of habitat loss, habitat fragmenta- Burg man et al. 2001). However, less is known about tion, and management challenges related to fire- the impact of adjacent sand pine Pinus clausa forest maintained early-successional habitat. The Florida on scrub-jays. Sand pines are a precocious colonizer scrub-jay depends on Florida scrub, a narrowly dis- of scrub, producing cones as early as 5 yr of age tributed shrubland plant community occurring on (Brendemuehl 1990), but frequent fire can reduce or nutrient-poor sandy ridges in peninsular Florida, eliminate sand pines from scrub (Myers 1990, Free- USA (Myers 1990, Florida Natural Areas Inventory man & Kobziar 2011). 2010). Florida scrub is characterized by mostly tree- The Ocala National Forest (Ocala NF) supports the less, open expanses of low shrubs dominated by largest remaining Florida scrub-jay population (>800 ever green, or nearly evergreen, oak species Quercus family groups; Stith et al. 1996, USFWS 2007) and is spp. Infrequent but high-intensity wildfire and, one of only 3 metapopulations with a high probability more recently, prescribed burning and mechanical of long-term persistence (Stith 1999, USFWS 2007). treatments (Williges et al. 2006, Weekley et al. 2011) Ocala NF encompasses approximately 91 000 ha of maintain Florida scrub in an early-successional state. scrub habitat managed for multiple objectives in clu - The Florida scrub-jay is listed as threatened by the ding forest products, wildlife habitat, and recreation. US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS 1987) and Vul- Whereas land managers of other Florida scrub-jay nerable by the International Union for the Conserva- populations actively suppress sand pine with pre- tion of Nature (IUCN; Handbook of Birds of the scribed burning, at Ocala NF sand pine is inten - World and BirdLife International 2018) but could be tionally regenerated for pulpwood and plantations reclassified by the IUCN as Endangered if human are not burned (USFS [US Forest Service] 1999, development continues to degrade and eliminate its 2009). The Ocala NF landscape is thus unique in that habitat (BirdLife International 2000). The species is early successional habitat for Florida scrub-jays nonmigratory and lives in extended cooperative fam- occurs in hundreds of small (mostly 10 to 60 ha) ily groups that are territorial and largely sedentary clearcut stands of regenerating scrub embedded (i.e. most males disperse no farther than 1 to 2 terri- within an extensive matrix of sand pine forest unsuit- tory widths away from their natal territory; Woolf - able for scrub-jays. The long-term effects of Ocala enden & Fitzpatrick 1984, 1996, Fitzpatrick et al. NF management of sand pine scrub on individual 1999). Habitat loss and habitat degradation due to wildlife species are largely unknown. fire suppression throughout the species’ range have Successional trajectories for shrubland bird species caused widespread population declines, estimated at vary among species and from site to site (Greenberg 90% since the late 1800s (Stith et al. 1996, Woolf - et al. 2011, Watson et al. 2012, Perry & Thill 2013). enden & Fitzpatrick 1996). Recent surveys indicate Disturbance intervals necessary to achieve and Flo rida scrub-jay populations continue to decline on main tain suitable habitat conditions for Florida many public conservation lands, with lack of early- scrub-jays vary depending on local site conditions successional scrub believed to be the primary cause and previous management histories (FWC 2019). For (USFWS 2007, Boughton & Bowman 2011). example, fire intervals of 8 to 15 yr have been recom- The nest success and productivity of Florida scrub- mended for scrub on xeric ridges in central Florida jay decline in unburned scrub dominated by tall (>2 m) (Woolfenden & Fitzpatrick 1996), but shorter inter- vegetation (Woolfenden & Fitzpatrick 1984, Brei nin - vals are recommended for scrub elsewhere in the ger et al. 1998, Breininger & Oddy 2004). Habitat state, especially in more mesic sites (Florida Natural management guidelines developed for Florida scrub- Areas Inventory 2010). Managers recommend burn- jays on the Atlantic coast promote scrub vegetation ing scrub on the Atlantic coast at 2 to 5 yr intervals to of medium height (1.2 to 1.7 m tall) with patchy open- maintain openings (M. Legare pers. comm.). ings of bare sand and few, or no, trees (Breininger et Successional relationships for the Florida scrub-jay al. 1998, 2014, Breininger & Carter 2003, Florida Fish have not been described quantitatively in Ocala NF, and Wildlife Conservation Commission [FWC] 2019). even though it is the largest and most important pop- To guard against avian predators, the Florida scrub- ulation for recovery efforts (USFWS 2007). Assump- jay uses a cooperative sentinel system (McGowan & tions about what constitutes suitable habitat in this Woolfenden 1989) that functions best when vegeta- unique system have ranged from 3−15 yr post- tion is low so that views are unobstructed by trees. harvest (USFS 1999) to 3−12 yr post-harvest (USFS Florida scrub-jay occupancy and demography are 2009) and more recently ‘a mosaic of stands ≤20 yr of Miller & Shea: Suitable Florida scrub-jay habitat 101 age’ (Franzreb & Zarnoch 2011, p. 1040). Given the Florida scrub-jay’s limited dispersal ability (Woolf - enden & Fitzpatrick 1984, Fitzpatrick et al. 1999), its sensitivity to habitat fragmentation (Coulon et al. 2010, 2012), and its tendency to avoid canopied for- est elsewhere (Breininger et al. 1995, Burgman et al. 2001), the status and trend of this important popula- tion remain uncertain and of urgent conservation concern. Therefore, we conducted the first quantita- tive evaluation of Florida scrub-jay populations in Ocala NF in relation to forest stand age, stand size, and connectivity among stands (i.e. nearest neighbor distances). We predicted that