Economic Needs Assessment

Economic Needs Assessment Peter Brett Associates February 2018 Office Address: 16 Brewhouse Yard, Clerkenwell, London EC1V 4LJ T: +44 (0)207 566 8600 E: [email protected] Project Ref 39597 Name Position Signature Date Prepared by A Lynch Associate AL 11th Oct ‘17 Reviewed by R Pestell Director RP 17th Oct 2017 Approved by C Howick Partner CH 19th Oct 2017 For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved 5th May 1 Draft report AL RP RP 2017 27th June 2 Draft 2 Report AL RP RP 2017 19th Oct 3 Final Report AL RP RP 2017 Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the client. This report has been prepared for the client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2016 THIS REPORT IS FORMATTED FOR DOUBLE-SIDED PRINTING. ii Economic Needs Assessment CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT .................................................................................. 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 Local Plan .................................................................................................................... 5 Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 6 3 THE FUNCTIONAL ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY.......................................................... 7 The LEP view on economic geography ........................................................................ 8 Functional Geography .................................................................................................. 9 Conclusions.................................................................................................................15 4 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS ..........................................................................................16 Population and jobs .....................................................................................................16 Sectors ........................................................................................................................18 Productivity .................................................................................................................21 Business Demography ................................................................................................21 Labour market .............................................................................................................23 5 THE PROPERTY MARKET ........................................................................................26 Introduction .................................................................................................................26 Offices .........................................................................................................................29 Industrial .....................................................................................................................38 General Industrial (B1(c) & B2 Uses) ..........................................................................40 Storage and Distribution ..............................................................................................44 6 DEMAND FOR EMPLOYMENT FLOORSPACE ........................................................51 Introduction .................................................................................................................51 Past trends ..................................................................................................................51 The future ....................................................................................................................59 Future floorspace demand ...........................................................................................67 Jobs to a floorspace requirement ................................................................................69 Conclusions.................................................................................................................76 7 HORIZON 2050 ...........................................................................................................79 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................80 8 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................81 February 2018 iii Economic Needs Assessment TABLES Table 3.1 Commuting containment, Basingstoke and Deane ...............................................12 Table 3.2 Combined authority containment rates ..................................................................14 Table 4.1 Employee jobs in B’ke & Deane by industrial sectors, 2009-15 .............................19 Table 4.2 Gross Value Added per resident worker, 2016 ......................................................21 Table 4.3 Resident workers’ occupation profile ....................................................................24 Table 5.2 – Availability of larger corporate offices (over 15,000 sq ft / 1,400 sq m)) .............32 Table 5.4 Potential opportunities for additional office floorspace ..........................................36 Table 5.5 – Available General Industrial (B1c & B2) Space ..................................................41 Table 5.6 Potential opportunities for additional industrial floorspace .....................................43 Table 5.7 – Available storage and distribution space ............................................................46 Table 5.8 Potential opportunities for additional storage and distribution floorspace ..............48 Table 6.1 DfT forecast range of mileage change ..................................................................66 Table 6.2 Office jobs and net floorspace demand .................................................................68 Table 6.3 Industrial jobs and net floorspace demand ............................................................68 Table 6.4 Storage and distribution jobs and net floorspace demand .....................................69 Table 6.5 Office demand and supply ....................................................................................70 Table 6.6 Office demand/supply balance ..............................................................................71 Table 6.7 Industrial demand and supply ...............................................................................72 Table 6.8 Industrial demand/supply balance .........................................................................72 Table 6.9 Storage and distribution demand and supply ........................................................73 Table 6.10 Storage and distribution demand/supply balance ................................................74 FIGURES Figure 3.1 2001 Travel to Work Areas ..................................................................................11 Figure 3.2 2011 Travel to Work Areas ..................................................................................11 Figure 3.3 Commuting in and out of Basingstoke and Deane, 2011 .....................................13 Figure 4.1 Population, economically active and employee jobs in Basingstoke and Deane, 2009-2016* ...........................................................................................................................17 Figure 4.2 Employee jobs Borough and surrounding districts*, 2015 ....................................18 Figure 4.3 Location quotient, 2015 .......................................................................................20 Figure 4.4 Business formation rates, 2010-15 ......................................................................22 Figure 4.5 Business closure rates, 2010-15 ..........................................................................22 Figure 4.6 Mean gross weekly earnings, 2016 .....................................................................25 Figure 6.1 Basingstoke and Deane - total jobs – 1997-2016 ................................................52 Figure 6.2 Jobs change (indexed) B’stoke and Deane, the region and UK ...........................53 Figure 6.3 Basingstoke and Deane - B (and non-B) class jobs – 1997-2016 ........................54 Figure 6.4 Basingstoke and Deane – office floorspace .........................................................55 February 2018 iv Economic Needs Assessment Figure 6.5 Basingstoke and Deane – industrial floorspace ...................................................56 Figure 6.6 B’stoke & Deane – Office floorspace change 2003/4 to 16/17 .............................57 Figure 6.7 B’stoke & Deane – Industrial floorspace change 03/4 to 16/17 ............................58 Figure 6.8 B’stoke & Deane – Office floorspace change projection ......................................60 Figure 6.9 B’stoke & Deane – Industrial floorspace

Load more