United States Department of Agriculture Mid-Atlantic Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Mid-Atlantic Climate Change Response Framework Project Forest Northern General Technical Service Research Station Report NRS-181 October 2018 ABSTRACT Forest ecosystems will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of 11 forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, eastern Maryland, and southern New York) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple forest impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before two multidisciplinary panels of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Each chapter of this assessment builds on the previous chapter. The description of the contemporary landscape presents major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the Mid-Atlantic region and defines the forest communities being assessed. The background information in Chapter 2 summarizes climate data analysis and climate models. Analysis of climate records in Chapter 3 indicates that average temperatures and total precipitation in the region have increased. Downscaled climate models in Chapter 4 project potential increases in temperature in every season, but projections for precipitation indicate slight increases in winter and spring, and high variability in summer and fall projections, depending on the scenario. Potential impacts on forests in Chapter 5 were identified by incorporating the future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). These models project declines in growth and suitable habitat for many mesic species, including American beech, eastern hemlock, eastern white pine, red spruce, and sugar maple. Species that tolerate hotter, drier conditions are projected to persist or increase, including black oak, northern red oak, pignut hickory, sweetgum, and white oak. Climate impacts related to topics such as wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests were not included in the forest impact models, but were summarized from published literature. In Chapter 6, we assessed vulnerability for 11 forest communities in the Mid-Atlantic region. Twenty-six science and management experts from across the region considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts on a forest ecosystem and the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem. The montane spruce-fir and lowland conifer forest communities were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems in the interior portion of the Mid-Atlantic region. Maritime and tidal swamp forest communities were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems in the coastal plain portion of the region. The woodland, glade, and barrens forest community was perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. Forest ecosystem vulnerabilities are expected to affect other forest-dependent topics such as wildlife management, timber production, and recreation. Information on these and other topics is summarized in Chapter 7. Cover Photo Allegheny Reservoir. This 25-mile-long lake touches nearly 100 miles of forested shoreline within the Allegheny National Forest boundaries, and provides both recreation opportunities and municipal water. Photo by USDA Forest Service, Eastern Region, via flickr.com. Manuscript received for publication February 2018 Published by: For additional copies, contact: USDA FOREST SERVICE USDA Forest Service 11 CAMPUS BLVD., SUITE 200 Publications Distribution NEWTOWN SQUARE, PA 19073 359 Main Road Delaware, OH 43015 October 2018 Fax: 740-368-0152 Visit our homepage at: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ Mid-Atlantic Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Mid-Atlantic Climate Change Response Framework Project Patricia R. Butler-Leopold, Louis R. Iverson, Frank R. Thompson III, Leslie A. Brandt, Stephen D. Handler, Maria K. Janowiak, P. Danielle Shannon, Christopher W. Swanston, Scott Bearer, Alexander M. Bryan, Kenneth L. Clark, Greg Czarnecki, Philip DeSenze, William D. Dijak, Jacob S. Fraser, Paul F. Gugger, Andrea Hille, Justin Hynicka, Claire A. Jantz, Matthew C. Kelly, Katrina M. Krause, Inga Parker La Puma, Deborah Landau, Richard G. Lathrop, Laura P. Leites, Evan Madlinger, Stephen N. Matthews, Gulnihal Ozbay, Matthew P. Peters, Anantha Prasad, David A. Schmit, Collin Shephard, Rebecca Shirer, Nicholas S. Skowronski, Al Steele, Susan Stout, Melissa Thomas-Van Gundy, John Thompson, Richard M. Turcotte, David A. Weinstein, and Alfonso Yáñez AUTHORS PATRICIA R. BUTLER-LEOPOLD is a climate change outreach GREG CZARNECKI is the climate change and research specialist with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate coordinator with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation Science, Michigan Technological University, U.J. Noblet and Natural Resources, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg, PA Forestry Building, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, 17105, [email protected]. [email protected]. PHILIP A. DeSENZE is the public affairs officer with the USDA LOUIS R. IVERSON is a landscape ecologist with the USDA Forest Forest Service, Angeles National Forest, San Gabriel Mountains Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware, National Monument, 110 N. Wabash Avenue, Glendora, CA OH 43015, [email protected]. 91741, [email protected]. FRANK R. THOMPSON III is a research wildlife biologist with the WILLIAM D. DIJAK is a wildlife biologist and geographic USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 202 Anheuser- information systems specialist with the USDA Forest Service, Busch Natural Resources Building, University of Missouri – Northern Research Station, 202 Anheuser-Busch Natural Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211, [email protected]. Resources Building, University of Missouri – Columbia, LESLIE A. BRANDT is a climate change specialist with the Columbia, MO 65211, [email protected]. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, USDA Forest JACOB S. FRASER is a resource specialist with the Department of Service, Northern Research Station, 1992 Folwell Avenue, Natural Resources, University of Missouri – Columbia, St. Paul, MN 55108, [email protected]. 203 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO STEPHEN D. HANDLER is a climate change specialist with the 65211, [email protected]. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, USDA Forest PAUL F. GUGGER is an assistant professor with the University Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Appalachian [email protected]. Laboratory, 301 Braddock Road, Frostburg, MD 21532, MARIA K. JANOWIAK is the deputy director of the Northern [email protected]. Institute of Applied Climate Science, USDA Forest Service, ANDREA HILLE is the forest silviculturist with the Allegheny 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, National Forest, 4 Farm Colony Drive, Warren, PA 16365, [email protected]. [email protected]. P. DANIELLE SHANNON is a climate change outreach specialist JUSTIN HYNICKA is the manager of forest conservation with with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, American Forests, 1220 L Street, Suite 750, Washington, DC Michigan Technological University, U.J. Noblet Forestry Building, 20005, [email protected]. 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, CLAIRE A. JANTZ is a professor with the Department of [email protected]. Geography and Earth Science and the director of the Center CHRISTOPHER W. SWANSTON is a research ecologist with the for Land Use and Sustainability at Shippensburg University, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, and director of 1871 Old Main Drive, Shippensburg, PA 17257, the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, [email protected]. 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, MATTHEW C. KELLY is an assistant professor of natural resource [email protected]. management, School of Forest Resources and Environmental SCOTT BEARER is the president and conservation ecologist of Science at Michigan Technological University, U.J. Noblet Appalachian Conservation, LLC, 1677 Gap Road, Allenwood, PA Forestry Building, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, 17810. He is also a fire landscape ecologist with the U.S. Fish [email protected]. and Wildlife Service in Albuquerque, NM, KATRINA M. KRAUSE is a social science analyst with the USDA [email protected]. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Baltimore Field ALEXANDER M. BRYAN is the climate assessments and scenario Station, 5523 Research Park Drive, Suite 350, Baltimore, MD planning postdoctoral fellow with the Northeast Climate 21228-4783, [email protected]. Science Center, 233 Morrill Science Center, 611 North Pleasant INGA PARKER LA PUMA is the science communication Street, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003-9297, director with the North Atlantic Fire Science Exchange and a [email protected]. visiting scientist with the Grant F. Walton Center for Remote KENNETH L. CLARK is a research forester with the USDA Forest Sensing and Spatial Analysis at Rutgers University, School of Service, Northern Research Station, Silas Little