Population Ageing and Inflation with Endogenous Money Creation Igor Fedotenkov DP 03/2016-013 Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation Igor Fedotenkov1 Bank of Lithuania Abstract This paper provides an explanation as to why population ageing is associ- ated with deflationary processes. For this reason we create an overlapping- generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. In other words, we combine a neoclassical OLG model with post-Keynesian monetary theory. The model links demographic factors such as fertility rates and longevity to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to smaller demand for credits, and lower money creation, which in turn causes a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices through real sav- ings and the capital market. Furthermore, a few links between interest rates and inflation are addressed, they arise in the general equilibrium and are not thoroughly discussed in literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics are simulated numerically. JEL Classification: E12, E31, E41, J10 Keywords: Population ageing, inflation, OLG model, inside money, credits. 1Economics Department, Bank of Lithuania. Totoriu str. 4, Vilnius, Lithuania. +370 603 26377
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[email protected] The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania. 1 Introduction Deflation is usually supposed to be harmful, because people expecting a decline in prices have incentives to cut their spending, thus reducing economic activity and leading to economic stagnation. Economic stagnation reduces incomes and induces a further decline in spending.