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Demography and Social Trends

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Demography and Social Trends Topic Paper 1 Demography and Social Trends Version 1.0 Introduction This topic paper is one of a series, prepared by the Council, to support preparation of its Local Development Framework (LDF). The topic papers in the series comprise: 1. Demography and Social Trends 2. Policy Context 3. The Natural Environment 4. The Built Environment 5. The Economy 6. Tourism 7. Retail 8. Housing 9. Leisure and Open Space 10. Water The purpose of the papers is to provide all parties who may wish to participate within the Local Development process access to the same baseline information that the Council intends to use in the preparation of its Development Plan Documents and Supplementary Planning Documents. They provide a digest, rather than a substitution, for fuller information obtained from other sources. Other topic papers may be added over time. Should you have any questions relating to the content of these papers, please contact [email protected]. This topic paper covers a whole range of statistics to give a definitive picture of the borough as it stands, ranging from forecasted population growth, expected housing to be built in the next fifteen years through to existing problems of deprivation and health issues. Statistics within the paper come from many different sources as much research has already been done, these are listed below. • The Census 2001 – produced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Census day was April 29th 2001. All ONS material is covered by Crown Copyright, however the Council is allowed to disseminate the data. • East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009 – produced by East Kent councils • SEP Nov 08 KCC Projections – produced Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team • Swale NHS Health Profile 2008 – produced NHS 1 • Kent County Council Community Infrastructure Provision • Swale Learning Strategy 2008 • Indices of Multiple Deprivation Ranking 2007 – produced Communities and Local Government (CLG) • Benefit Data 2008 – produced Department of Work and Pensions This paper aims to pull together all of the data to give a full analysis of the borough. 2 1.0 Population 1.1.1 The total population of Swale is 130, 300 (mid 2007 population estimate) making Swale the third most populated area in Kent behind Canterbury (148,000) and Maidstone (144,000). 1.1.2 The total population figure of 130,3001 can be broken down into demographic groups Adult Females (18-59) 35,600 Adult Males (18-64) 40,000 Children (0-15) 26,500 Older Adults (60+ F/65+M) 24,600 1.1.3 The population of Swale has increased rapidly in the last few years and is the third fastest growing district in the county. Table 1.1.4 below shows the population growth of Swale in comparison to Kent since 2002. Table 1.1.4 Population Growth Since 2002 Population 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Kent 1,589,700 1,600,600 1,613,000 1,624,900 1,634,600 1,646,900 Swale 124,400 125,800 126,800 127,600 128,500 130,300 % growth 5yr Change 2006-2007 Change Swale Number Percentage Number Percentage 5,800 4.7% 1 , 7 00 1.3% Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team 1.1.5 Swale’s population has increased by 4.7% over the last five years well above the regional average of 3.6%. Swale has had a steady increase in population year on year and it is anticipated due to increased housing provision that this trend will continue. 1.1.6 Births, deaths and migration (the net effect of people moving into and out of an area) can influence population change. Table 1.1.7 shows the net migration into and out of Swale broken down by age group. The result show that a large proportion of in migrants are in the age groups 0-15 and 25-44, this indicates family groups are moving into the area. 1 Source: Population Estimates Unit, ONS 3 Table 1.1.7 Net Migration (In and Out of the Borough) Source: East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment Statistical Supplement 1.1.8 Swale’s increase in population can clearly be demonstrated to be the cause of inward migration rather than by natural change (i.e. the difference between births and deaths). Table 1.1.9 shows that the Net Change through natural change remains stable with a small fluctuation of around 100 residents, this demonstrates that natural change has had little effect on the population increase. Table 1.1.9 Net Change Year Births Deaths Net Change 2004 1,493 1,205 288 2005 1,498 1,139 359 2006 1,588 1,225 363 2007 1,632 1,237 395 Source: Office for National Statistics 1.1.10 Natural change remains fairly consistent with a modest increase; this is expected given the increase in total population. Births, deaths and mortality rates for the borough will be discussed at length later on. 1.1.11 The breakdown of the borough’s existing population by parish is shown in the table over the page. This shows there has been a 5% reduction in the population of Doddington and a reduction of 4.6% in Graveney and Goodnestone parishes in the period 2006-2007. There has by contrast been a population increase of 10% at the village of Iwade, a 5% increase at Lynsted with Kingsdown and a 4.9% increase in Selling. 4 Table 1.1.12 Population at Parish Level 5 1.2 Population Projections 1.2.1 In November 2008 Kent County Council produced population forecasts based on the South-East Plan Strategy. The data provides a useful comparison between Swale, Kent and North Kent (North Kent includes local authority districts of Dartford, Gravesham, Swale and Medway), in terms of expected population growth. Table 1.2.2 shows projections up to 2026, which is the period covered by the South East Plan. Table 1.2.2: November 2008 based Population Projections Total Population 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 128,500 131,400 133,900 136,800 140,400 Kent 1,634,600 1,690,500 1,733,200 1,778,800 1,830,800 North Kent 567,600 587,300 602,800 620,300 640,800 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team This results in the following % changes in population over the same time period. Table 1.2.3 Population Forecasted Change in Number and Percentage Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % Swale 2,800 2.2 5,300 4.2 8,300 6.5 11,900 9.3 Kent 55,900 3.4 98,600 6.0 144,200 8.8 196,200 12.0 North Kent (1) 19,700 3.5 35,200 6.2 52,700 9.3 73,200 12.9 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team 1.2.4 This shows the borough’s forecasted population increase as slightly below that of the regional and county average. In comparison Swale has had an average growth of 4.7% in the previous 5 years and if this trend were to continue the projected figures would be below the actual growth experienced. However even if growth rates fall to the 2.2% (till 2011) and 4.2% (till 2016) predicted the projected figures for population growth are still significant. Table 1.2.5 Population Projection for Swale by Age Group Population Projection for Swale by Age Group 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Age Group 0-15 26200 26000 26100 26600 26500 16-24 14100 14000 13400 12500 13300 25-44 34900 32700 30700 30600 31000 45-64 33400 35800 36600 37400 36900 65-84 17600 20100 23700 25600 27500 85+ 2300 2700 3400 4100 5200 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team 1.2.6 When the populations forecast are broken down into broad age groups it becomes apparent that Swale will face a significant increase in residents aged 44-65 and 65-84. This ageing population is likely to require specific housing 6 needs such as sheltered accommodation, flats and ‘homes for life’ and is also likely to have an impact on health care and other service provision within the borough. The number of residents over the age of 85 will increase by over a hundred percent which may lead to an increased demand for assisted living/care home provision and cemetery or burial space. Table 1.2.7 Population Forecast by Age Groups % Change Swale Population Forecast by Age Groups % Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % 0-15 -200 -0.6 -100 -0.3 400 1.7 300 1.1 16-24 -100 -0.8 -700 -5.0 -1,600 -11.2 -800 -5.9 25-44 -2,200 -6.3 -4,100 -11.8 -4,300 -12.3 -3,900 -11.1 45-64 2,400 7.1 3,200 9.5 4,000 12.0 3,500 10.5 65-84 2,500 14.3 6,000 34.3 8,000 45.2 9,900 56.3 85 and over 400 17.2 1,000 44.3 1,800 75.6 2,900 124.1 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team 1.3. Migration Forecasts 1.3.1 As part of the South East Plan Strategy figures of predicted population migration into the borough have been produced. Table 1.3.2 Net Migration Net Migration Households Net Migration Persons 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale n/a 600 600 1,000 1,400 n/a 400 400 1,300 2,600 Kent n/a 12,700 8,000 10,400 14,600 n/a 27,700 15,000 21,500 32,500 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team 1.3.3 This gives Swale an increase of population via migration of 400 persons over the periods 2006-2011 and 2011-2016.
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