Demography and Social Trends

Topic Paper 1 Demography and Social Trends

Version 1.0 Introduction

This topic paper is one of a series, prepared by the Council, to support preparation of its Local Development Framework (LDF). The topic papers in the series comprise:

1. Demography and Social Trends

2. Policy Context

3. The Natural Environment

4. The Built Environment

5. The Economy

6. Tourism

7. Retail

8. Housing

9. Leisure and Open Space

10. Water

The purpose of the papers is to provide all parties who may wish to participate within the Local Development process access to the same baseline information that the Council intends to use in the preparation of its Development Plan Documents and Supplementary Planning Documents.

They provide a digest, rather than a substitution, for fuller information obtained from other sources. Other topic papers may be added over time.

Should you have any questions relating to the content of these papers, please contact [email protected].

This topic paper covers a whole range of statistics to give a definitive picture of the borough as it stands, ranging from forecasted population growth, expected housing to be built in the next fifteen years through to existing problems of deprivation and health issues. Statistics within the paper come from many different sources as much research has already been done, these are listed below. • The Census 2001 – produced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Census day was April 29th 2001. All ONS material is covered by Crown Copyright, however the Council is allowed to disseminate the data. • East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009 – produced by East Kent councils • SEP Nov 08 KCC Projections – produced Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team • Swale NHS Health Profile 2008 – produced NHS

1 • Kent County Council Community Infrastructure Provision • Swale Learning Strategy 2008 • Indices of Multiple Deprivation Ranking 2007 – produced Communities and Local Government (CLG) • Benefit Data 2008 – produced Department of Work and Pensions

This paper aims to pull together all of the data to give a full analysis of the borough.

2 1.0 Population

1.1.1 The total population of Swale is 130, 300 (mid 2007 population estimate) making Swale the third most populated area in Kent behind Canterbury (148,000) and Maidstone (144,000).

1.1.2 The total population figure of 130,3001 can be broken down into demographic groups

Adult Females (18-59) 35,600 Adult Males (18-64) 40,000 Children (0-15) 26,500 Older Adults (60+ F/65+M) 24,600

1.1.3 The population of Swale has increased rapidly in the last few years and is the third fastest growing district in the county. Table 1.1.4 below shows the population growth of Swale in comparison to Kent since 2002.

Table 1.1.4 Population Growth Since 2002 Population 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Kent 1,589,700 1,600,600 1,613,000 1,624,900 1,634,600 1,646,900 Swale 124,400 125,800 126,800 127,600 128,500 130,300 % growth 5yr Change 2006-2007 Change Swale Number Percentage Number Percentage 5,800 4.7% 1 , 7 00 1.3% Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

1.1.5 Swale’s population has increased by 4.7% over the last five years well above the regional average of 3.6%. Swale has had a steady increase in population year on year and it is anticipated due to increased housing provision that this trend will continue.

1.1.6 Births, deaths and migration (the net effect of people moving into and out of an area) can influence population change. Table 1.1.7 shows the net migration into and out of Swale broken down by age group. The result show that a large proportion of in migrants are in the age groups 0-15 and 25-44, this indicates family groups are moving into the area.

1 Source: Population Estimates Unit, ONS

3 Table 1.1.7 Net Migration (In and Out of the Borough)

Source: East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment Statistical Supplement

1.1.8 Swale’s increase in population can clearly be demonstrated to be the cause of inward migration rather than by natural change (i.e. the difference between births and deaths). Table 1.1.9 shows that the Net Change through natural change remains stable with a small fluctuation of around 100 residents, this demonstrates that natural change has had little effect on the population increase.

Table 1.1.9 Net Change Year Births Deaths Net Change 2004 1,493 1,205 288 2005 1,498 1,139 359 2006 1,588 1,225 363 2007 1,632 1,237 395 Source: Office for National Statistics

1.1.10 Natural change remains fairly consistent with a modest increase; this is expected given the increase in total population. Births, deaths and mortality rates for the borough will be discussed at length later on.

1.1.11 The breakdown of the borough’s existing population by parish is shown in the table over the page. This shows there has been a 5% reduction in the population of Doddington and a reduction of 4.6% in Graveney and Goodnestone parishes in the period 2006-2007. There has by contrast been a population increase of 10% at the village of Iwade, a 5% increase at Lynsted with Kingsdown and a 4.9% increase in Selling.

4 Table 1.1.12 Population at Parish Level

5 1.2 Population Projections

1.2.1 In November 2008 Kent County Council produced population forecasts based on the South-East Plan Strategy. The data provides a useful comparison between Swale, Kent and North Kent (North Kent includes local authority districts of Dartford, Gravesham, Swale and Medway), in terms of expected population growth. Table 1.2.2 shows projections up to 2026, which is the period covered by the South East Plan.

Table 1.2.2: November 2008 based Population Projections

Total Population 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 128,500 131,400 133,900 136,800 140,400 Kent 1,634,600 1,690,500 1,733,200 1,778,800 1,830,800 North Kent 567,600 587,300 602,800 620,300 640,800 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

This results in the following % changes in population over the same time period.

Table 1.2.3 Population Forecasted Change in Number and Percentage Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % Swale 2,800 2.2 5,300 4.2 8,300 6.5 11,900 9.3 Kent 55,900 3.4 98,600 6.0 144,200 8.8 196,200 12.0 North Kent (1) 19,700 3.5 35,200 6.2 52,700 9.3 73,200 12.9 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

1.2.4 This shows the borough’s forecasted population increase as slightly below that of the regional and county average. In comparison Swale has had an average growth of 4.7% in the previous 5 years and if this trend were to continue the projected figures would be below the actual growth experienced. However even if growth rates fall to the 2.2% (till 2011) and 4.2% (till 2016) predicted the projected figures for population growth are still significant.

Table 1.2.5 Population Projection for Swale by Age Group Population Projection for Swale by Age Group 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Age Group 0-15 26200 26000 26100 26600 26500 16-24 14100 14000 13400 12500 13300 25-44 34900 32700 30700 30600 31000 45-64 33400 35800 36600 37400 36900 65-84 17600 20100 23700 25600 27500 85+ 2300 2700 3400 4100 5200 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

1.2.6 When the populations forecast are broken down into broad age groups it becomes apparent that Swale will face a significant increase in residents aged 44-65 and 65-84. This ageing population is likely to require specific housing

6 needs such as sheltered accommodation, flats and ‘homes for life’ and is also likely to have an impact on health care and other service provision within the borough. The number of residents over the age of 85 will increase by over a hundred percent which may lead to an increased demand for assisted living/care home provision and cemetery or burial space.

Table 1.2.7 Population Forecast by Age Groups % Change Swale Population Forecast by Age Groups % Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % 0-15 -200 -0.6 -100 -0.3 400 1.7 300 1.1 16-24 -100 -0.8 -700 -5.0 -1,600 -11.2 -800 -5.9 25-44 -2,200 -6.3 -4,100 -11.8 -4,300 -12.3 -3,900 -11.1 45-64 2,400 7.1 3,200 9.5 4,000 12.0 3,500 10.5 65-84 2,500 14.3 6,000 34.3 8,000 45.2 9,900 56.3 85 and over 400 17.2 1,000 44.3 1,800 75.6 2,900 124.1 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

1.3. Migration Forecasts

1.3.1 As part of the South East Plan Strategy figures of predicted population migration into the borough have been produced.

Table 1.3.2 Net Migration Net Migration Households Net Migration Persons 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale n/a 600 600 1,000 1,400 n/a 400 400 1,300 2,600 Kent n/a 12,700 8,000 10,400 14,600 n/a 27,700 15,000 21,500 32,500 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

1.3.3 This gives Swale an increase of population via migration of 400 persons over the periods 2006-2011 and 2011-2016. There is then a sharp increase of population migration with 1,300 person predicted for 2021 (1% of the total projected population) and 2,600 in 2026, an increase to 1.9% of the total anticipated population.

1.4 Population Densities

1.4.1 Swale has a total area of 37,340 hectares and the increase in population predicted will inevitably increase density of people living within the borough.

Table 1.4.2 Population and Density Increase Population Density 2001 122,801 3.29 2007 130,300 3.49 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

7 2.0 People, places and families

2.1.1 Swale is like many other South East boroughs and has a significant mix of household types ranging from married couples, families, lone parents and single older persons. The household composition at the time of the 2001 Census is shown below.

Table 2.1.2 Household Composition in 2001 South Swale England East All Households (Households)1 49,257 3,287,489 20,451,427 One person (Households)1 12,967 937,468 6,150,264 One person: Pensioner (Households)1 6,569 473,161 2,939,465 One person: Other (Households)1 6,398 464,307 3,210,799 One family and no others (Households)1 33,860 2,141,419 12,931,601 One family and no others: All pensioners (Households)1 4,630 320,054 1,826,453 One family and no others: Married couple households (Households)1 19,817 1,277,596 7,465,966 One family and no others: Married couple households: No children 7,330 463,165 2,656,440 (Households)1 One family and no others: Married couple households: With one 3,292 216,255 1,291,370 dependent child (Households)1 One family and no others: Married couple households: With two or 6,022 407,388 2,299,965 more dependent children (Households)1 One family and no others: Married couple households: All children 3,173 190,788 1,218,191 non-dependent (Households)1 One family and no others: Cohabiting couple family households 5,008 283,754 1,704,304 (Households)1 One family and no others: Cohabiting couple family households: No 2,427 171,689 976,879 children (Households)1 One family and no others: Cohabiting couple family households: With 1,157 49,480 323,725 one dependent child (Households)1 One family and no others: Cohabiting couple family households: With 1,217 51,974 337,348 two or more dependent children (Households)1 One family and no others: Cohabiting couple family households: All 207 10,611 66,352 children non-dependent (Households)1 One family and no others: Lone parent households (Households)1 4,405 260,015 1,934,878 One family and no others: Lone parent households: With one 1,433 87,365 684,327 dependent child (Households)1 One family and no others: Lone parent households: With two or more 1,603 84,184 627,647 dependent children (Households)1 One family and no others: Lone parent households: All children non- 1,369 88,466 622,904 dependent (Households)1 Other households (Households)1 2,430 208,602 1,369,562 Other households: With one dependent child (Households)1 437 30,386 217,984 Other households: With two or more dependent children 532 32,261 240,385 (Households)1 Other households: All student (Households)1 3 11,656 79,143 Other households: All pensioner (Households)1 200 14,244 82,384 Other households: Other (Households)1 1,258 120,055 749,666 Source: (1)Office for National Statistics

2.1.3 As expected with Swale’s ageing population and increased residents over 65 there has been a rise in one person households from 13,000 households in 2001 to 15,000 households in 2006.

2.1.4 Numbers of lone parent households have remained stable with an increase of only 500 households between 2001 and 2006. Looking at the total

8 number of households within Swale this is a relatively small increase. The number of married couple households remained at 25,400 up to 2006.

2.2 Martial Status

2.2.1 Swale has 54,276 residents married, that’s 41% of the population and 40% are single residents.

Table 2.2.2 Martial Status Swale South East England All People (Persons)1 130,300 8,000,645 49,138,831 Single (never married) (Persons)1 52,261 3,412,654 21,763,102 Married (first marriage) (Persons)1 43,082 2,865,138 17,069,491 Re-married (Persons)1 8,543 532,570 2,885,186 Separated (but still legally married) 1 2,651 146,765 941,911 (Persons) Divorced (Persons)1 8,511 525,459 3,219,984 1 Widowed (Persons) 7,753 518,059 3,259,157 Source: Office for National Statistics

2.2.3 Along with population forecasts Kent County Council have produced forecasts on the make up of future households. These are shown in the tables below and have been separated into the various household compositions.

Table 2.2.4 Total Number of forecast households 2006 - 2026

Households 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 53,100 55,800 58,400 61,100 63,800 Kent 684,300 718,600 752,900 787,200 821,400 North Kent 234,900 248,100 261,400 274,600 287,800 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 2.2.5 Household growth in number and percent Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % Swale 2,700 5.0 5,300 10.1 8,000 15.1 10,700 20.1 Kent 34,300 5.0 68,500 10.0 102,800 15.0 137,100 20.0 North Kent 13,200 5.6 26,500 11.3 39,700 16.9 53,000 22.5 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 2.2.6 Household Forecast of Married Couples

Married Couple 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 25,400 25,400 24,900 24,700 24,600 24,500 Kent 327,900 322,300 316,300 312,200 310,100 308,300 North Kent 112,200 109,300 107,200 106,000 105,800 106,000

9 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 2.2.7 Household growth in number and percent Change 2006 to 2006 to 11 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % - Swale -500 -1.8068 -700 -2.7043 -800 3.13336 -900 -3.6451 - - - - - Kent -6,000 -1.851 -10000 3.10931 12200 3.77399 13900 4.31704 North - - - - Kent -2,100 1.90795 -3300 3.00552 -3500 3.20583 -3400 3.08327 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

2.2.8 Whilst the numbers of married households remains relatively stable around 25,000, Swale clearly follows the regional and county trend of a fall in the percentage of the total population which is married.

Table 2.2.9 Household Forecast of Cohabiting Couples

Cohabiting Couple 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 5,300 6,400 7,400 8,000 8,500 9,000 Kent 60,800 73,600 86,500 95,800 103,500 110,900 North Kent 23,000 27,600 32,600 36,300 39,200 41,900 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 2.2.10 Household growth in number and percent Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % Swale 1,000 15.3 1,600 25.3 2,100 33.3 2,700 41.8 Kent 12,800 17.4 22,200 30.1 29,900 40.6 37,200 50.6 North Kent 5,000 18.1 8,700 31.5 11,600 42.0 14,300 51.9 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

2.2.11 There is a marked increase expected in the number of co-habiting couples, this includes those with children, with an increase of 41.8% between 2006 and 2026. This is likely to have an impact on the types of dwellings to be provided up to 2026, requiring a mix of bedroom numbers and styles to house couples and those with co-habiting children. Again Swale follows the regional trend in increased co-habiting couples.

Table 2.2.12 Household Forecast for Lone Parents

Lone Parent 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 3,300 3,800 3,900 3,900 3,800 3,800

10 Kent 42,000 48,400 49,900 50,300 50,200 50,900 North Kent 15,700 18,000 18,600 18,900 19,100 19,600 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 2.2.13 Household growth in number and percent Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % Swale 100 2.0 100 2.0 0 0.4 0 0.2 Kent 1,500 3.0 1,900 3.9 1,800 3.8 2,500 5.2 North Kent 600 3.3 900 5.0 1,100 6.1 1,600 9.1 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

2.2.14 The population of Swale, who are lone parents, looks set to remain stable at just under four thousand. This stability in the population can be seen in the 0.2% increase between 2006 and 2026 anticipated. This stability bucks the regional and county trend which see significant increases in lone parents.

2.2.15 The large increase in the North Kent region is a result of a forecast increase in Dartford and Gravesham, which expect an increase in lone parents of 54% and 16% respectively.

2.2.16 As Swale’s lone parent population looks unlikely to increase significantly it is expected that new housing would not be taken up by this group to any great extent and housing proposals should not be aimed specifically at this demographic group.

2.2.17 In 2001 as part of the census data, 1,507 lone parents did not live full time with their dependant children

Table 2.2.18 Household Forecast for One Person Households

One Person 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,200 21,400 23,600 Kent 181,300 203,300 227,800 254,700 281,800 308,800 North Kent 60,100 67,900 77,000 86,800 96,500 105,900 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 2.2.19 Household growth in number and percent Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 no. % no. % no. % no. % Swale 2,000 13.3 4,200 27.8 6,400 42.6 8,600 57.2 Kent 24,500 12.0 51,400 25.3 78,500 38.6 105,500 51.9 North Kent 9,100 13.4 18,900 27.9 28,600 42.2 38,000 56.0 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

11 2.2.20 One person households are the group which increases most significantly in Swale which tallies with the population forecasts of an ageing population and less people getting married or co-habiting. Between 2006 and 2026 there is a significant rise in the number of people over 65 (56.3% growth) and in the 85+ (124.1% growth) age bracket this will inevitably increase the number of one person households as people are widow/widower but due to increased health levels and life spans wish to remain living on their own.

2.2.21 The ageing population is also more likely to have a one person household as part of sheltered housing, warden or self-contained flats. There is limited amount of such accommodation within the borough at present and demand is likely to increase.

12 3.0 Households

3.1.1 This section will look at what type of accommodation is within the borough as well as forecasts for the number of dwellings required by 2026 and how many it is anticipated will be built.

3.1.2 The table below shows the break down of accommodation types within the borough. It shows the two most common types of housing within Swale are semi-detached houses/bungalows and terraced properties.

3.1.3 33.25% of dwellings are semi-detached and 32.92% of dwellings terraced. The figures show that at 2004 only 6.79% of dwellings were purpose built flats or maisonettes; however in 2007/2008 29% of the properties built in that year were flats/maisonettes. Therefore an increase in the percentage of dwelling stock of flats/maisonettes is expected between now and 2026.

Table 3.1.4 Dwelling type in Swale 2001 South Swale England East All household spaces: With residents (Household 1 Count 49,257 3,287,489 20,451,427 Spaces) All household spaces: With no residents: Vacant 1 Count 1,677 91,301 676,196 (Household Spaces) All household spaces: With no residents: Second residence / holiday accommodation (Household Count 382 23,030 135,202 Spaces)1 Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: 1 Count 11,821 996,140 4,786,456 Detached (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: 1 % 23.04 29.28 22.51 Detached (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: Semi- 1 Count 17,061 967,850 6,713,183 detached (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: Semi- 1 % 33.25 28.45 31.57 detached (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: 1 Count 16,894 786,473 5,494,033 Terraced (including end terrace) (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: 1 % 32.92 23.12 25.84 Terraced (including end terrace) (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: Purpose Built block of flats or tenement (Household Count 3,485 442,992 2,967,790 Spaces)1 Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: Purpose Built block of flats or tenement (Household % 6.79 13.02 13.96 Spaces)1 Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: Part of a converted or shared house (including bed-sits) Count 1,294 144,880 968,266 (Household Spaces)1 Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: Part of a converted or shared house (including bed-sits) % 2.52 4.26 4.55 (Household Spaces)1 Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: In 1 Count 469 39,854 244,179 commercial building (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: In % 0.91 1.17 1.15

13 commercial building (Household Spaces)1 Accommodation type: Caravan or other mobile or 1 Count 292 23,631 88,918 temporary structure (Household Spaces) Accommodation type: Caravan or other mobile or 1 % 0.57 0.69 0.42 temporary structure (Household Spaces) Last Updated: 09 November 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics

3.1.5 Table 3.1.4 also shows that Swale is behind the South East and England in its percentage of dwellings which are flats (purpose built and conversions). Although given the slight increase in recent years this may come in line with the rest of the country soon.

Table 3.1.6 Average household size

Average Household Size 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 2.38 2.31 2.25 2.19 2.15 Kent 2.34 2.31 2.26 2.21 2.18 North Kent 2.38 2.33 2.27 2.23 2.19 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

3.1.6 The forecast show that Swale is likely to have a decrease in household size, this tallies with the expected increase in single people and one person households made up of elderly residents which will decrease the density of residents per dwelling. 3.1.7 Swale also has data on the council tax band for dwellings within the borough. These are in the table below.

Table 3.1.8 Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band South Swale England East Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Total (Dwellings)1 Count 56,883 3,565,119 22,289,256 Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band A 1 Count 9,549 312,133 5,608,566 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band A 1 % 16.79 8.76 25.16 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band B 1 Count 14,102 587,339 4,314,757 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band B 1 % 24.79 16.47 19.36 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band C 1 Count 15,800 920,285 4,825,402 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band C 1 % 27.78 25.81 21.65 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band D 1 Count 9,192 715,565 3,393,630 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band D 1 % 16.16 20.07 15.23 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band E 1 Count 4,800 477,934 2,112,189 (Dwellings)

14 Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band E 1 % 8.44 13.41 9.48 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band F 1 Count 2,191 288,571 1,116,768 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band F 1 % 3.85 8.09 5.01 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band G 1 Count 1,133 231,390 793,269 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band G 1 % 1.99 6.49 3.56 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band H 1 Count 116 31,902 124,667 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band H 1 % 0.20 0.89 0.56 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band I 1 Count 0 0 8 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band I 1 % 0.00 0.00 0.00 (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band X; 1 Count 0 0 0 Unallocated (Dwellings) Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band X; 1 % 0.00 0.00 0.00 Unallocated (Dwellings) Last Updated: 16 January 2009 Source: Communities and Local Government

3.1.9 Swale has below the national average of dwellings in Band A, however it has almost double the percentage of the South East. The borough has over 10% more of band B dwellings than the South East average of 16.47%. Swale also has below the South East average in the higher bands such as E, F, G. This high percentage of A and B bands and low percentage of higher bands indicates that the borough has deprived areas and poor housing stock compared to the South East as a whole.

3.2 Household tenure

3.2.1 Swale has a mix of dwelling tenures such as private, rented and registered social landlord properties. Fourteen percent of the borough’s housing is registered social landlord stock, this is much higher than the South East average of 8.7% again this indicates that the borough has areas of deprivation and residents on low incomes. 8% of the dwelling stock is privately rented and 77.88% is owner occupied, this is significantly higher than the England average of 69% of people owning their own home. This significant difference between private ownership and large amounts of RSL households including those on the waiting list indicates Swale, like many other Kent boroughs has a significant divergence between affluent areas and pockets of deprivation.

3.2.2. The borough has no dwelling stock owned by Swale Borough Council or any other public sector stock. There are currently 4,432 households on the local authority register and 3,352 households on the waiting list. Those households on the waiting list predominately want smaller dwellings, with 43%

15 wanting a 1 bed and 32% wanting a two bed dwelling. Future housing provision will need to be guided by whichever current Strategic Housing Market Assessment is in place. There is a far larger supply of smaller homes becoming available for reletting and thus a much greater likelihood of smaller household's housing needs being met faster than those of larger households. Although there are fewer larger households on the waiting lists, the current supply of larger affordable homes is negligible.

3.2.3 There is currently 6.2% of the dwelling stock classified as unfit and 0.8% vacant dwellings.

Table 3.2.4 Dwelling estimates

Forecast of Dwellings 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Swale 53,600 56,300 59,000 61,700 64,400 Kent 696,400 731,200 766,000 800,900 835,700 North Kent 238,200 251,600 265,100 278,500 291,900 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

3.2.5 The number of dwellings within the borough is due to increase significantly over the South East Plan (SEP) period (up to 2026) with Swale contributing 20% of the new dwellings forecast in the North Kent area. However Swale will only contribute 7.7% of the forecast growth within Kent, this is due to significant housing numbers in growth points such as Ashford within the SEP area.

Figure 3.2.6

Dwellings Forecast

900,000 800,000 700,000 s g n

i 600,000 l l e Swale w 500,000 D

f Kent

o 400,000 r North Kent e

m 300,000 u

N 200,000

100,000

0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Year

3.2.7 Figure 3.2.6 shows the dwelling contribution Swale will make in comparison to the North Kent and Kent totals. Swale’s housing figures make up a significant percentage of North Kent but relatively small when compared to the county.

Table 3.2.8 Dwellings to be built in each period by 2026 in Swale (SEP Targets) Housing Provision Forecast to 2026 Total 2006- 2011- 2016- 2021- 2006- 2011 2016 2021 2026 2026 Swale 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 10,800 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 3.2.9 Change in numbers and % of Dwellings (2006-2016) Change 2006 to 11 2006 to 16 Per Per no. % Year no. % Year Swale 2,700 5.0 500 5,400 10.1 500 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

Table 3.2.10 Change in numbers and % of Dwellings (2006-2026) Change 2006 to 21 2006 to 26 Per Per no. % Year no. % Year Swale 8,100 15.1 500 10,800 20.1 500 Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team

3.2.11 This indicates that Swale is expected to have 500 housing completions per year and whilst there were 767 dwellings built for the year 07/08 there were only 494 housing completions in the year 08/09. Given this decline in completions resulting from the economic downturn and the slow progress on site this year, it is unlikely Swale will meet the target of 500 dwellings per year. Depending on the length of the recession, this may have impacts for meeting the South East Plan target of 10,800 dwellings by 2026.

3.3 House prices

3.3.1 All house prices are sourced from the latest Land Registry figures for 2008. In 2006/07, the average house price was £175,455 , by 2007/08 this had risen to £182,910, an increase of 79% since 2001. The biggest rises were for entry-level stock. There was a gap of 21.7% between wages and the cost of housing incomes over a three year period to 2004. There is an annual affordable housing shortfall of 428 units per year, especially for flats and terraced houses.

17 3.3.2 There is a dramatic difference in house price across the borough, with higher prices in Faversham than in Sheppey.

3.3.3 Property prices in Sittingbourne rose by 14 per cent between January 2006 and January 2007. According to the latest Land Registry figures, the average price of a property in Sittingbourne stood at £180,087 last January.

3.3.4 Property prices in Faversham, fell by 6.9 per cent between January 2006 and January 2007. According to the latest Land Registry figures, the average price of a property in Faversham stood at £188,921 last January. The average price of a detached home was £272,443 in January 2007, compared to £320,437 in the previous January, a difference of 15 per cent.

3.3.5 Property prices in Sheerness, rose by 18.6 per cent between January 2006 and January 2007. According to the latest Land Registry figures, the average price of a property in Sheerness stood at £160,986 last January. The cheapest property purchased in Sheerness between January 2006 and January 2007 sold for £29,000 while the most expensive cost £432,000.

18 4.0 Births and Deaths

4.1.1 For births there is the General Fertility Rate (GFR) and the Standardised Fertility Ratio (SFR). For deaths there is the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and the Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR).

4.1.2 The GFR denotes the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 years in a specific area. Similarly, the CDR is the number of observed deaths per 1,000 resident population.

4.1.3 The standardised ratios (SFR and SMR) look at the number of births and deaths in an area and enable you to see whether they are above or below the level that may be expected given the age and gender composition of the area.

4.1.4 The ratios are calculated as the number of observed births/ deaths in an area, divided by the expected number of births/ deaths of that area (if the area had the same population age and sex structure as England and Wales) multiplied by 100. The national SFR and SMR for England and Wales are 100. Therefore, if an area has a higher SFR or SMR than 100, then there were more births or deaths than would be expected.

Table 4.1.5 Births and Deaths Births Deaths GFR SFR CDR SMR Swale 64.7 109 9.6 109 Kent 61.1 103 9.9 98 South East 60.8 100 9.1 92 GFR: General Fertility Rate: Live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44SFR: Standardised Fertility Ratio:(Observed livebirths as a % of the expected live births (expected = no. that would occur if the population of the area experienced the age-specific fertility rates of E&W))CDR: Crude Death Rate: Deaths (All Ages) per 1,000 resident population.SMR: Standardised Mortality Ratio: Observed deaths as a % of expected deaths(where expected deaths = no. that would occur if the population of the area experienced age/sex mortality rates of E&W). Source: Office of National Statistics

4.1.6 Swale has a higher SMR than 100 (109) indicating that there are more deaths here than would be expected.

4.2 Births and Fertility

4.2.1 Tables below shows the number of births in Swale in 2006 and the births each year since 2004.

19 Swale Year Births All Live Births (Persons)1 1,588 2004 1,493 Males 2005 1,498 (Persons)1 844 2006 1,588 2007 1,632 Females 744 Last Updated: 16 March 2009 Source: Office for National Statistics

4.2.2. The tables show that Swale has an increasing birth rate. This is to be expected with an increasing population, more residents equals more births. The table also shows that Swale has slightly more baby boys born than girls, data for years post 2006 are not yet available so whether this a trend or yearly fluctuation cannot be determined.

Births by Gender

47% Males (Persons)1

53% Females (Persons)1

Source: Office for National Statistics

4.2.3 Swale has above the national and well above the South East average of conceptions by under 18 year olds, with roughly 50 people per 1000 having a teenage pregnancy.

Table 4.2.4 Conceptions - Under 18's Jan 06 – Dec 06 Swale South East England Under 18 Conceptions (Persons)1 2 Count 130 5,219 39,170 1 2 Under 18 Conceptions (Persons) Rate per 1000 49.9 33.1 40.6 Last Updated: 26 February 2009 Source: Office for National Statistics

20 4.2.5 Swale has 54 (per 100 total) live births outside marriage which is higher than the regional average of 40 (per 100 total) live births. 4.2.6 The borough has a lower than national average rate of under weight babies at birth. In 2006/7 the rate of births under 2500grams was 6.5% per 100 live births compared to the national rate of 7.6; these rates are based on live births with stated birth weights.

Table 4.2.7 Low Birthweight Live Births Jan 06 – Dec 06 Swale South East England Low Birthweight Live Births (Live Births) 2 Count 102 6,749 47,629

Low Birthweight Live Births (Live Births) % 6.5 6.9 7.6 Last Updated: 20 November 2008 Source: Office for National Statistics

4.2.8 The table below shows infant mortality rates within the borough, the South East and England.

Table 4.2.9 Infant Mortality Rates 2007 Swale Kent England Under 1 Year Old (rate per 1000 live births) 9.2* 3.9 4.8 Under 4 Weeks Old (rate per 1000 live births) 6.7* 2.6 3.3 Perinatal Mortality Rate (rate per 1000 live births) 9.2* 6.7 7.7 * denotes a rate calculated from less than 20 events Source: Office for National Statistics

4.3 Deaths and Standardised Mortality ratios (SMR)

4.3.1 As mentioned above Swale has a Crude Death Rate of 9.6% per the number of observed deaths per 1,000 resident population and a Standard Mortality Rate of 109.The borough has a stable death rate which demonstrates that the increase in population is not through natural change but through in-migration into Swale.

4.3.2 This pattern of stable death rates is the same regionally and nationally.

Table 4.3.3 All Deaths (Number of Deaths each Year) Swale South East England January 2006 to December 2006 1,225 75,496 470,326 January 2005 to December 2005 1,139 76,849 479,678 January 2004 to December 2004 1,205 76,740 480,717 Last Updated: 16 March 2009 Source: Office for National Statistics

21 5.0 Health

5.1.1 Swale exhibits significant health inequalities, reflecting the economic and environmental divergencies that exist between the most disadvantaged wards (on the Isle of Sheppey and in Sittingbourne) and the more affluent parts of the Borough.

5.1.2 Overall, Swale’s health outcomes are generally worse than elsewhere in the South East, as the table below of selected health indicators shows:

Indicator Swale Kent South-East Britain Average Male life expectancy 76.9 - 78.5 77.3 Average female life 80.4 - 82.3 81.5 expectancy % adults who are smokers 28.6 24.6 - 25.8 % adults who are obese 25.4 24.4 - - % of working age on incapacity 6.8 5.8 4.7 7.2 benefit

5.1.3 Some of these indicators are among the worst in Kent: for instance, the proportion of adults who are obese is the highest of any district in Kent; the proportion who smokes is the second highest.

5.1.4 However, these figures mask significant divergencies, which correlate with wider inequalities in other areas. Poor health is also a consequence of deprivation and a cause of it: while the proportion of people in Swale on incapacity benefit is significantly above the regional average, the figure rises to over 12% in Sheerness East and over 13% in Leysdown and Warden.

5.2 Life Expectancy

5.2.1 Life expectancy within the borough is well below the national average and there are serious health inequalities across the borough. For example women from the least deprived areas can expect to live almost five years longer than those in deprived areas of Swale. Life expectancy is for instance eight years higher in West Downs than it is in Sheerness West.

The map over the page demonstrates the most deprived and least deprived wards in the borough. A list of the Output areas accompanies the map.

Source: NHS Health Profile 2008 (www.healthprofiles.info)

5.2.2 When cross referenced with the map the graph shows life expectancy for a man living in Leysdown or Sheerness is 75 years compared with a man living in St Michael’s Ward, in central Sittingbourne who will have a life expectancy of 81 years. This difference of 6 years life expectancy indicates that there is severe health deprivation in pockets of the borough.

5.2.3 The health of people in Swale is mixed when compared to the England average. Adults appear to lead less healthy lifestyles, and physical activity in children and GCSE achievement appear worse than average. However, violent crime, claimants of benefits for mental illness and children's tooth decay appear better than average.

24 5.2.4 Over the last ten years rates of deaths from all causes, early deaths from heart disease and stroke and from cancer have improved and are close to the England average. It is estimated that nearly 30% of adults smoke on average. Death rates from smoking are worse than the England average. Smoking accounts for over 230 deaths every year. Where recorded, smoking rates during pregnancy are also high at around 20%. There are over 130 emergency admissions to hospital each year for people aged over 65 with a hip fracture.

Table 5.2.5 Health Indicators 2007 Health Indicators for Swale Number per Local England Domain Indicator year Value Average Smoking in pregnancy 295 20.1 16.1 Under-15s 'not in good health' 281 11.5 11.6

Children's Physically active children 13637 76.4 85.7 Health Obese children 36 9.1 9.9 Binge drinking adults N/A 16 18 Healthy eating adults N/A 21.8 26.3 Adult's Physically active adults N/A 11 11.6 Health Obese adults N/A 26.5 23.6 Incapacity benefits for mental illness 1940 24.7 27.5 Hospital stays related to alcohol 254 199.7 260.3 Drug misuse 597 7.3 9.9 Poor People diagnosed with Health diabetes 4934 3.9 3.7 Source: NHS Health Profile 2008

5.2.6. Swale’s ageing population will lead to significant pressure on existing health provision and the demand for adult social services is expected to increase. The total number of older persons in the borough will increase by around 45% by 2016. This includes significant projected changes for the 65 to 69 age group (increase of 63.4%) and the 85+ age group with an increase of 60%. Demands on services and their availability for residents and their carers are likely to become increasingly important.

5.2.7 Furthermore The Alzheimer’s Society2 estimates that the incidence of dementia in Swale will increase with the ageing population as shown in the graph below.

2 www.alzheimers.org.uk/sites

25 Table 5.2.8 Forecast incidence of dementia in Swale

Source: Kent County Council Community Infrastructure Provision

5.2.9 Kent County Council research has also highlighted that the population of residents in Swale with a learning disability is likely to grow by 22% between 2001 and 2021. In particular it identifies significant growth in older age groups over the same period, 62% in the 60-79 age bracket and 95% increase in the 85+ age group. Similarly it is expected that numbers of people experiencing disabling physical problems and other serious health problems will increase as well. The table below shows forecasted increases for serious health conditions for county level, it is expected that Swale will mirror these trends.

Table 5.2.10 Forecast of key long-term conditions affecting older people in Kent

26 6.0 Learning

6.1.1 Qualification levels among Swale’s working age population are significantly worse than both the national and regional averages. In 2006, over 14% of working age people within the Borough had no qualifications, compared with less than 10% across the South East, and the proportion with qualifications at NVQ4 and above was a third lower than elsewhere in the region:

Qualifications of Working age population 2006 Swale South East UK Qualification (%) (%) (%) NVQ4 and above 19.8 30.5 27.4 NVQ3 and above 41.7 49.4 45.3 NVQ2 and above 61.5 68.1 63.8 NVQ1 and above 80.4 82.5 77.7 Other qualifications 5.5 7.7 8.5 No qualifications 14.1 9.6 13.8 Source: ONS annual population survey

6.1.2 Across the country as a whole, the proportion of jobs requiring higher qualifications is likely to increase, and there is a higher proportion of employment in knowledge-intensive occupations in the South East than in most of the rest of the country. Poor qualifications levels will act as a limit on the ability of local people to access these new employment opportunities. Swale’s poor skills profile relates to historic employer demand, which given the Borough’s traditional sector strengths, has not tended to require the higher skills levels that are increasingly in demand nationally. The interrelationship between low skills levels and employer demand is characterised as a ‘low skills equilibrium’: jobs that require poor skills provide little incentive to gain new ones, and the presence of a relatively low skilled workforce deters higher- value investors.3

6.1.3 There is evidence that the Borough’s skills profile is improving. Among the current workforce, the proportion qualified to at least NVQ2 increased by over 9 percent between 2001/2 and 2005/6, ahead of the Kent average.

6.1.4 School attainment has also improved significantly: between 2003 and 2007, the percentage of students achieving GCSE passes at grades A*-C in Swale schools increased by 27%, compared with a Kent average of 16% and a national average of 15%. However, the borough’s average attainment figures still lag behind those for Kent and England as a whole. With this continued improvement, and the prospects of investment in the new Minster Academy and in the wider reorganisation of education on the Isle of Sheppey, the outlook for long-term improvement in the Borough’s skills profile appear stronger.

3 Swale Learning Strategy 2008

27 7.0 Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007

7.1.1. The Indices of Multiple Deprivation issued by Communities and Local Government provide a picture of the area and how deprived it is. The measure of how deprived an area is based on a wide range of data on different subjects such as benefit claims, education and health levels. The Indices of Deprivation 2007 provide a range of information including a detailed breakdown for small areas known as Lower Super Output Areas as well as at Local Authority and County level.

7.1.2 The Indices of Deprivation enables small pockets of deprivation to be pinpointed and highlight areas which need focusing on to improve the quality of life. The Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) have seven domains which are measured, they include; Income Deprivation, Employment Deprivation, Health Deprivation and Disability, Education, Skills and Training Deprivation, Barriers to Housing and Services, Living Environment Deprivation and Crime. These scores are then combined with explicit weightings to generate the index and ranking.

th 7.1.3 Kent as a whole (excluding Medway) is within England’s 4 quintile nationally, meaning it is within England’s least 60-80% deprived, however there are very different levels of deprivation within the county as is illustrated below. Swale is amongst the most deprived boroughs within Kent, superseded only by Thanet.

28 7.1.4 In terms of national ranking, Swale is positioned within the most deprived 35% of local authorities nationally. However this overall position masks extremes of deprivation, with some Lower Super Output Areas being extremely deprived and others relatively affluent such as Faversham and rural areas to the south of Sittingbourne. The map below shows the ranking of Lower Super Output Areas within Swale, it shows that Sheerness Bluetown and Murston are within the top 10% deprived areas.

Map for 2007 Lower Super Output Areas in Swale

• 21264-32482 (Rank) – Top 20% Ranking Areas (Least Deprived)

16782-21263 (Rank)

13234-16781 (Rank)

6720-13233 (Rank)

1-6719 (Rank) – Bottom 20% Ranking Areas (Most Deprived)

29 7.1.5 The areas are ranked out of all the Super Output Areas nationally of which there are 32,482. Those Lower Super Output Areas with a rank below 3,248 are in the 10% most deprived areas, the lower the ranking the more deprived an area is.

7.1.6 In Swale nine Super Output Areas on the Isle of Sheppey are within the top 20% of deprived areas nationally. Furthermore Milton Regis, Murston and Watling wards within the top 25 most deprived in the borough.

7.1.7 Swale has a particularly high percentage of older residents experiencing deprivation which is measured by IDAOPI.

7.1.8 The Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) is a supplementary index in ‘The English Indices of Deprivation 2007’ (Department for Communities and Local Government). The IDAOPI looks at the proportion of older people aged 60+ living in income deprived households. Income deprivation affecting older people is defined as those adults aged 60 or over living in Pension Credit (guarantee) households as a proportion of all those aged 60 or over. A key indicator of a low income household is whether central heating and fuel are available. The figure above shows Chart 24 from Kent County Council’s research highlights that Swale has the second highest proportion of 50+ with no central heating.

7.1.9 When looking at the 15 most deprived Super Output Areas within Swale against each of the seven domains that deprivation is measured. Many of the areas score in more than one domain indicating severe pockets of deprivation where quality of life is low and in need of improvement. These 15 most

30 deprived Super Output Areas for each of the deprivation domains measured can be found at Appendix A

31 8.0 Benefit claiming

8.1.1 In February 2009 Swale had 13,240 residents claiming a key benefit4, 16.7% of the working age population. This is slightly higher than the national average of 15.7% but markedly higher than the South East average of 11.3%. However between February and July of 2009 the number of claimants for Job Seekers has reduced by over 100 residents.

8.1.2 Below is the breakdown of benefits claimed within Swale.

Table 8.1.3 Child Benefit Statistics Aug 06 Swale South East England Total Number of Families Claiming Benefit (Persons)2 1 16,330 981,015 6,168,010 Families with One Child (Persons)2 1 6,840 406,785 2,695,855 Families with Two Children (Persons)2 1 6,565 410,195 2,434,055 2 1 Families with Three or More Children (Persons) 2,920 164,035 1,038,100 Last Updated: 30 January 2008 Source: Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs

Table 8.1.4 Income Support Claimants Aug 08 Swale South East England Total (Persons) Count 4,800 197,830 1,775,270 Claimants Aged 16-24 (Persons) Count 750 29,400 254,100 Claimants Aged 16-24 (Persons) % 16 15 14 Claimants Aged 25-49 (Persons) Count 3,170 129,620 1,153,250 Claimants Aged 25-49 (Persons) % 66 66 65 Claimants Aged 50-59 (Persons) Count 870 38,780 367,690 Claimants Aged 50-59 (Persons) % 18 20 21 Claimants Aged 60 and Over (Persons) Count 0 30 230

Claimants Aged 60 and Over (Persons) % 0 0 0 Last Updated: 19 June 2009 Source: Department for Work and Pensions

8.1.5 Swale also has 11,040 claimants of Council Tax Benefit and/or Housing Benefit and 5,810 residents claiming Pension Credit.

Table 8.1.6 Working Age Key Benefit Claimants Feb 2009 Swale Swale South East Great Britain

(numbers) (%) (%) (%) Total claimants 13,240 16.7 11.3 15.7 Job seekers 3,110 3.9 2.8 3.9 ESA and incapacity 5,480 6.9 4.7 7.0 benefits Lone parents 1,980 2.5 1.5 2.0

4 Benefits include: Carers allowance, Disability Living Allowance, Incapacity Benefit, Income Support, JobSeekers allowance, severe disablement allowance, widows benefit.

32 Carers 1,090 1.4 0.8 1.1 Others on income related 490 0.6 0.4 0.5 benefits Disabled 890 1.1 0.8 1.0 Bereaved 200 0.3 0.2 0.2 Key out-of-work † 11,060 14.0 9.4 13.4 benefits Source: DWP benefit claimants - working age client group Key out-of-work benefits consists of the groups: job † seekers, incapacity benefits, lone parents and others on income related benefits % is a proportion of resident working age Note: population of area

8.1.7 Benefit claiming within Swale is similar to the national average. This trend is true for all types of benefits shown. There is however a large proportion of the population providing care for those with long term illness or disability who are not claiming carers allowance and providing care for free. This is a relatively hidden workforce yet 11,344 Swale residents provide unpaid care and 24% of those are providing care for more than 50 hours a week.

Table 8.1.8 Health and Provision of Unpaid Care 2001 South Swale England East All People (Persons)1 Count 122,801 8,000,645 49,138,831 People with a limiting long-term illness (Persons)1 Count 21,623 1,237,399 8,809,194 People with a limiting long-term illness (Persons)1 % 17.61 15.47 17.93 People of working age with a limiting long-term illness 1 Count 10,079 521,137 4,014,005 (Persons) People of working age with a limiting long-term illness 1 % 13.47 10.63 13.29 (Persons) All people who provide unpaid care (Persons)1 Count 11,344 737,751 4,877,060 All people who provide unpaid care: 1-19 hours a week 1 Count 7,425 541,905 3,347,531 (Persons) All people who provide unpaid care: 1-19 hours a week 1 % 65.45 73.45 68.64 (Persons) All people who provide unpaid care: 20-49 hours a 1 Count 1,153 65,693 530,797 week (Persons) All people who provide unpaid care: 20-49 hours a 1 % 10.16 8.90 10.88 week (Persons) All people who provide unpaid care: 50 or more hours 1 Count 2,766 130,153 998,732 a week (Persons) All people who provide unpaid care: 50 or more hours 1 % 24.38 17.64 20.48 a week (Persons) Last Updated: 09 November 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics

8.1.9 There have also been significant rises in residents claiming disability living allowance. This is to be expected due to the overall rise in population in the borough and its ageing nature which results in higher cases of disability and associated benefits.

Table 8.1.10 Disability Living Allowance Claimants Swale South East England August 2008 6,880 287,260 2,453,310 August 2007 6,450 272,600 2,375,900 August 2006 6,040 259,340 2,292,900 August 2005 5,830 251,470 2,237,510 August 2004 5,570 240,970 2,173,470 August 2003 5,260 228,380 2,091,820 August 2002 4,840 215,020 1,995,090

Last Updated: 19 June 2009 Source: Department for Work and Pensions

34 9.0 Ethnicity

9.1.1 Ethnicity is hard to record within Swale as this is recorded as part of the census. It is likely that through the large amount of in-migration to the area an increase the diversity in ethnic backgrounds will have occurred since 2001. The table below shows the ethnic groups within Swale at the time of the last census.

Table 9.1.2 Ethnic Group as of Census 2001 South Swale England East All People (Persons) 122,801 8,000,645 49,138,831 White (Persons) 120,516 7,608,989 44,679,361 White: British (Persons) 118,053 7,304,678 42,747,136 White: Irish (Persons) 885 82,405 624,115 White: Other White (Persons) 1,578 221,906 1,308,110 Mixed (Persons) 835 85,779 643,373 Mixed: White and Black Caribbean (Persons) 241 23,742 231,424 Mixed: White and Black African (Persons) 109 9,493 76,498 Mixed: White and Asian (Persons) 300 29,977 184,014 Mixed: Other Mixed (Persons) 185 22,567 151,437 Asian or Asian British (Persons) 711 186,615 2,248,289 Asian or Asian British: Indian (Persons) 398 89,219 1,028,546 Asian or Asian British: Pakistani (Persons) 82 58,520 706,539 Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi (Persons) 143 15,358 275,394 Asian or Asian British: Other Asian (Persons) 88 23,518 237,810 Black or Black British (Persons) 405 56,914 1,132,508 Black or Black British: Caribbean (Persons) 163 27,452 561,246 Black or Black British: African (Persons) 170 24,582 475,938 Black or Black British: Other Black (Persons) 72 4,880 95,324 Chinese or Other Ethnic Group (Persons) 334 62,348 435,300 Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Chinese (Persons) 219 33,089 220,681 Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Other Ethnic Group 115 29,259 214,619 (Persons) Last Updated: 18 November 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics

9.1.3 The table below shows all households by whether the household contains people in different ethnic groups.

Table 9.1.4 Multiple Ethnic Groups Census 2001 South Swale England East All Households (Households) 49,257 3,287,489 20,451,427 One person household (Households) 12,967 937,468 6,150,264 All household members have the same ethnic group 34,300 2,135,988 12,965,136 (Households) Different identities between generations only (Households) 334 33,839 318,939 Different identities within partnerships (Households) 1,422 143,780 763,508

Other combination of multiple ethnic groups (Households) 234 36,414 253,580 Last Updated: 18 November 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics

9.1.5 The figures show that 69% of households have the same ethnicity across household members. The table also shows that 3% of households are made up of mixed ethnicity partnerships.

9.1.6 Swale has experienced the second largest percentage increase in BME5 population between 2006 and 2007 with an increase of 14.5%, which was equivalent to an additional 800 people. Swale has had the second largest increase only superseded by Tonbridge and Malling.

Table 9.1.7 BME population in Kent local authority districts – 2006 to 2007

Note: percentages have been calculated using rounded numbers Source: Office for National Statistics, Crown Copyright 2009 Mid-2006 Ethnic Population Estimates, Table EE1, released 21 August 2008 Mid-2007 Ethnic Population Estimates, Table EE1, released 23 April 2009Table presented by Research & Intelligence, Kent County Council

(The ethnic population estimates are classified as experimental statistics. This means that they have not yet been shown to meet the quality criteria for

5 Definition of the BME population The Black Minority Ethnic (BME) population is defined as all ethnic groups excluding White British, White Irish and White Other.

36 National Statistics but are being published to involve users in the development of the methodology and to help build quality at an early stage.)

9.1.8 The map on the following page shows only the percentage increase each authority has had in the year 2006-2007 and shows significant growth in authorities which previously had low BME populations. Similarly Medway and Gravesham show minor increases however their existing BME populations are relatively high when compared to Swale.

MAP 9.1.8 BME POPULATION IN KENT BOROUGHS 2007

38 9.1.9 In Swale there has been significant growth in populations from certain ethnic backgrounds. The table below shows the figures from each BME group and their increase since 2002. This shows that the BME population has increased from 2.4% of the whole population in Swale to 4.3% in 2006. Given that overall population within the borough has increased significantly this translates to an exponential increase in residents from BME backgrounds.

Table 9.1.10 Chinese or Other White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Ethnic Group

White and White Black and White BME All Other Carib Black and Other Pakist Bangla Other Black Black Other Popul Groups British Irish White bean African Asian Mixed Indian ani deshi Asian Caribbean African Black Chinese Other ation* 2002 124,400 118,700 900 1,800 300 100 300 200 500 100 200 100 300 300 100 300 200 3,000 2003 125,800 119,100 1,000 2,100 300 100 300 300 600 200 200 200 400 500 100 300 200 3,600 2004 126,800 119,300 1,000 2,200 300 200 400 300 700 200 200 200 400 600 100 300 300 4,200 2005 127,600 119,200 1,000 2,400 400 200 400 300 800 300 300 300 500 800 100 400 300 5,000 2006 128,500 119,400 1,000 2,600 400 200 400 300 900 300 300 300 600 900 100 400 300 5,500

9.1.11 The rate of this growth and the groups which have increased the most are best shown in graph form over the page. These show that there has been a marked increase in residents who are from Black or Black British backgrounds and Asian or Asian British. There has been a lesser rate of growth in the other BME populations.

39 Table 9.1.12- Population Growth Rates of BME Populations

Ethnic Growth - White Ethnic Grow th - Asian or Asian British Ethnic Grow th - Chinese or Other 124,000 2,000 123,000 1,800 800 122,000 1,600 700 r e

b 1,400 600

m 121,000 Ot her Asian

u Other White 1,200

N 500 Bangladeshi

n 120,000 Irish Ot her i 1,000 400 h Pakist ani t British 800 Chinese w 119,000

o Indian 300 r 600 G 118,000 200 400 100 117,000 200 0 0 116,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Ye a r s Ye a r s Years

Ethnic Grow th - Mixed Ethnic Grow th - Black or Black British

1,400 1,800 1,200 1,600 Ot her Mixed 1,000 1,400 Whit e and Asian 1,200 800 Ot her Black 1,000 600 Whit e and Black Af rican Black Af rican 800 Black Caribbean 400 Whit e and Black 600 Caribbean 400 200 200 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Ye a r s Ye a r s

40 9.2 Religion

9.2.1 Again figures only exist from the 2001 Census so percentages are likely to have changed. This will be verified at the 2011 Census.

Table 9.2.2 Religion Census 2001 Swale South East England All People (Persons) 122,801 8,000,645 49,138,831 Christian (Persons) 93,192 5,823,025 35,251,244 Buddhist (Persons) 164 22,005 139,046 Hindu (Persons) 248 44,575 546,982 Jewish (Persons) 103 19,037 257,671 Muslim (Persons) 448 108,725 1,524,887 Sikh (Persons) 112 37,735 327,343 Any other religion (Persons) 340 28,668 143,811 No religion (Persons) 18,888 1,319,979 7,171,332

Religion not stated (Persons) 9,306 596,896 3,776,515 Last Updated: 18 November 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics

9.2.3 As of 2001, 75% of the borough’s population saw themselves as Christian. Swale does have a variety of other religious communities such as Hindu, Muslim and Jewish to name but a few. These communities make up just below 1% of the population each.

9.3 Place of Birth

9.3.1 The table below shows that, like the rest of the South East, the majority of residents are born within the UK, in particular England. In total 96% of Swale residents were born in the United Kingdom. Interestingly less than 1% of the borough’s residents were born in EU countries (other than the UK) compared to the national average of 1.9%.

Table 9.3.2 Country of Birth as of Census 2001 South Swale England East All People (Persons)1 122,803 8,000,645 49,138,831 Born in Europe (Persons)1 120,516 7,603,219 46,045,077 Born in Europe: United Kingdom (Persons)1 118,317 7,349,275 44,594,817 Born in Europe: United Kingdom: England (Persons)1 115,437 7,041,745 42,968,596 Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Scotland (Persons)1 1,437 152,771 794,577 Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Northern Ireland (Persons)1 393 37,545 215,124 Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Wales (Persons)1 1,042 116,368 609,711 Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Part not specified 1 8 846 6,809 (Persons) Born in Europe: Republic of Ireland (Persons)1 698 64,384 460,287 Born in Europe: Channel Islands (Persons)1 36 6,340 27,550 Born in Europe: Other Western Europe (Persons)1 1,251 153,767 726,523 Born in Europe: Other Western Europe: EU countries 1 1,076 136,409 660,061 (Persons)

41 Born in Europe: Other Western Europe: Non EU Countries in 1 175 17,358 66,462 Western Europe (Persons) Born in Europe: Eastern Europe (Persons)1 214 29,453 235,900 Born in Africa (Persons)1 635 101,624 798,218 Born in Asia (Persons)1 988 189,033 1,566,998 Born in North America (Persons)1 331 61,931 460,258 Born in: South America (Persons)1 56 10,834 72,867 Born in Oceania (Persons)1 228 29,745 155,072 1 Born Elsewhere (Persons) 49 4,259 40,341 Last Updated: 18 November 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics

9.4 Migrant workforce

9.4.1 The European Union (EU) was enlarged on 01 May 2004. From this date, the EU consisted of : Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithua nia, Estonia, Malta and (Greek) Cyprus. The EU was further enlarged on 01 January 2007 to include free movement of people from Bulgaria and Romania. Given the above, only the latest data (2007/08) includes all 12 EU Accession Countries. Data presented for the EU Accession Countries before this date exclude Bulgaria and Romania.

9.4.2 In the below data the definition of migrants – translates to overseas nationals allocated a National Insurance Number.

9.4.3 Since 2002/03, there has been a marked growth in the number of migrant workers in the KCC Area, higher than the growth experienced nationally. Figure 9.4.4 illustrates the growth. Over two-and-a-half times the number of migrant workers came to the KCC Area in 2007/08 than in 2002/03.

Figure 9.4.4 Growth in Migrant Workers

Table 9.4.5 All migrant workers each year 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Kent 5,090 5,680 8,030 12,590 12,600 13,520 Swale 150 180 470 1,030 730 1,170 Source: Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)

9.4.6 Swale has the fourth highest number of migrant workers out of all Kent local authorities, the highest being Medway with over 2000 in the year 2007- 08.

Figure 9.4.7 Growth of Migrant Population from EU Accession Countries in Swale

Swale

1200

1000

n 800 o i t n e c s A

U 600 Swale E

f o

t n a r g i

M 400

200

0 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Years

9.4.8 Significant growth in migrant workers from EU Accession Countries occurred in the period 2003/04 to 2005/06 following EU enlargement in May 2004. The latest data for 2007/08 shows another sharp increase, however this is due to the inclusion of migrant workers from Romania and Bulgaria.

9.4.9 In total migrant workers account for 1.42% of Swale’s working age population

9.4.10 Where have the migrant workers come from? - Since 2002/03, only two countries have maintained a “top 10 country of origin” position in providing migrant workers to Kent and they are India and France. Australia and South Africa just drop out of the top 10 in the latest period.

43 Table 9.4.11 Migrant Workers in KCC Area by Country of Origin, 2007/08

9.5 Gypsies and Travellers

9.5.1 Although defined as an ethnic group by the Race Relations (Amended) Act 2000, Gypsy or Traveller is not an option on the ethnic background part of the 2001 Census. Therefore exact figures on how many people are Gypsies and Travellers are not known.

9.5.2 No accurate figures are available for Gypsies and Travellers within the borough, particularly those in bricks and mortar accommodation. However The Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessment for North Kent 2007 estimated that there are 48 households with planning permission, 23 households on un-authorised sites and 10 households within bricks and mortar housing.

10.0 Travel to Work

10.1.1.The table below provides data on the modes of transport used to travel to work by working age residents as part of the Census 2001.

Table 10.1.2 Transport Modes as of Census 2001 Swale All people aged 16-74 in employment (Persons)1 Count 55,712 People who work mainly at or from home (Persons)1 Count 5,107 People who work mainly at or from home (Persons)1 % 9.17 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Underground, Metro, Light Rail or Count 60 Tram (Persons)1 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Underground, Metro, Light Rail or % 0.11 Tram (Persons)1 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Train (Persons)1 Count 3,649 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Train (Persons)1 % 6.55 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Bus, Mini Bus or Coach (Persons)1 Count 1,576 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Bus, Mini Bus or Coach (Persons)1 % 2.83 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Motorcycle, Scooter or Moped Count 673 (Persons)1 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Motorcycle, Scooter or Moped % 1.21 (Persons)1 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Driving a Car or Van (Persons)1 Count 32,896 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Driving a Car or Van (Persons)1 % 59.05 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Passenger in a Car or Van (Persons)1 Count 3,775 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Passenger in a Car or Van (Persons)1 % 6.78 People aged 16-74 who travel to work by: Taxi or Minicab (Persons)1 Count 217 People aged 16-74 who travel to work by: Taxi or Minicab (Persons)1 % 0.39 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Bicycle (Persons)1 Count 1,547 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Bicycle (Persons)1 % 2.78 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: On foot (Persons)1 Count 5,975 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: On foot (Persons)1 % 10.72 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Other (Persons)1 Count 237 People aged 16-74 who usually travel to work by: Other (Persons)1 % 0.43 Average distance (km) travelled to fixed place of work (Persons)1 km 17.46 Public transport users in households: With car or van (Persons)1 Count 4,459 Public transport users in households: With car or van (Persons)1 % 84.37 Public transport users in households: Without car or van (Persons)1 Count 800 Public transport users in households: Without car or van (Persons)1 % 15.14 Last Updated: 02 June 2006 Source: Office for National Statistics

10.1.3 Over 50% of residents travel to work by car, nearly 7% by train and 10% by walking. The average distance travelled to get to work is 17.46km - exact distances travelled are shown, in comparison with other East Kent authorities, below.

Table 10.1.4 Distance Travelled to Work

Source: East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009

10.1.5 Swale has the highest number of people travelling between 10km and 20km with 28%. In Swale, 14% travelled 60km and over, the most of all of the five local authorities. This large percentage of out commuting can be examined in more detail if work destinations are known.

46 Table 10.1.6 Daily Travel-to-work Journeys (2001) Source: East Kent Strategic Market Housing Assessment

To Rest of South East of From Canterbury Dover Shepway Swale Thanet Kent East London England Canterbury 41,574 2,491 863 2,120 1,794 4,293 531 2,659 299 Dover 3,384 32,551 3,521 356 1,415 1,959 333 789 203 Shepway 1,448 2,701 29,182 200 249 5,612 496 1,371 140 Swale 2,768 305 189 36,196 201 10,044 505 4,724 319 Thanet 3,673 4,218 435 449 36,812 1,388 332 1,293 197 Rest of Kent 2,467 1,032 2,403 5,926 357 South East 210 412 423 202 69 London 310 241 118 353 147 East of England 81 175 55 150 68

10.1.7 The figures show that Swale has the most residents commuting to London (4,724) over two thousand more than the closest authority Canterbury. However over 36 thousand residents work as well as live in Swale and 10 thousand commute to other areas in Kent than the authorities mentioned in the table. Swale has relatively few residents commuting to Dover, Shepway, Thanet or out of Kent to the East/South East of England. There is still, by comparison, a large percentage of out commuting within the borough.

47 Swale Travel to Work

The Travel to Work maps illustrate the percentage of economically active population of each ward travelling into the named district for work.

49 Table 10.1.8 Occupation and location of work place for residents in Swale

10.1.9 The table above shows the various professions of Swale residents on the left and the colored bars indicate where residents work.

10.1.10 This shows that the highest percentage of residents who live and work within the borough are employed as: Small employers and own account workers, Routine occupations and Semi-routine occupations.

10.1.11 It also indicates that those residents employed as: Lower managerial and professional occupations, Higher professional occupations and Large employers and higher managerial occupations; are travelling outside the borough to other authorities and London to work. This indicates that job opportunities within these sectors are currently missing from the Swale job/employment offer.

50 11.0 Conclusion

11.1.1 This topic paper has highlighted a number of issues which will need to be addressed through the Core Strategy. Some of the issues raised can be addressed through a spatial translation such as housing, open spaces or community infrastructure. However some of the problems cannot be resolved by ‘bricks and mortar’ however change can be facilitated by the Core Strategy such as creating the right environments for improvement.

11.1.2 Below is a list of issues highlighted within the baseline data and their potential spatial solutions. These issues and the potential solutions will of course be tested through the sustainability appraisal framework for the draft Core Strategy.

51 Key Messages

• Increased population will require additional housing to meet the groups identified with forecast growth e.g. single older persons, cohabiting couples. • Population change is due to inward migration rather than natural change so our new communities need to be catered for as well as our existing ones. This may mean more or specialist community facilities such as places of worship, cultural centres or village halls. • Increased population will require necessary infrastructure and community provision. • Dwelling type should be to meet the various housing market areas which are detailed and assessed in the Strategic Housing Market Assessment. • Swale has significant pockets of deprivation, including significant health inequalities. This should lead to health provision being focused on these areas and joint working with the NHS and local primary care trusts. • An ageing population is likely to lead to an increase in long-term health conditions which in turn will mean increased health facilities and increased pressure for adult social services monies through S106. Exact needs will be established through the Older Persons Strategy. • An ageing population is also likely to create the need for specialist housing solutions e.g. care homes, sheltered/warden accommodation, disabled accessible flats and an increase in take up in initiatives such as Swale Borough Council’s Staying Put. All of these will require joint working with stakeholders and developers and may result in S106 requirements to meet these needs. • Education and skills levels are below average and improved access to higher education for residents is needed. A more attractive employment offer is also needed to ensure residents with higher levels remain in the borough and that new residents and businesses are attracted. • Deprivation is significant in the pockets around the borough and focus upon resolving this is needed. Regeneration is a potential vehicle for improving quality of life in these areas. • The borough is becoming more ethnically diverse which may lead to specialist requirements for housing and community facilities. • The borough has significant migrant workers which little is known about, it is unclear whether this would have significant effect but a possible outcome would be the need for more seasonal agricultural workers accommodation.

52 APPENDIX A Top 15 OVERALL most deprived SOA’s in Swale according to Top 15 most deprived INCOME SOA’s in Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007.

Rank Ward IND Rank Score of IMD Rank Ward IND Score Rank 1 Sheerness East 60.12 899 of IMD 2 Leysdown & Warden 58.68 1040 1 Sheerness West 0.46 941

2 Sheppey Central 0.40 1915 3 Murston 55.2 1451 4 Sheerness West 54.28 1576 3 Murston 0.38 2285 5 Sheerness West 49.82 2345 4 Sheerness West 0.38 2306 6 Queenbrough & Halfway 47.44 2780 5 Queenbrough & Halfway 0.35 2944 7 Sheppey Central 45.76 3162 6 Sheppey East 0.34 3188 8 Sheerness West 44.44 3473 7 Davington 0.33 3611 9 Milton Regis 3976 4738 8 Milton Regis 0.31 4157 10 Davington 39.47 4814 9 Grove 0.31 4189 11 Leysdown & Warden 38.12 5231 10 Sheppey West 0.31 4237 12 Sheppey Central 37.44 5416 11 Sheppey East 0.30 4384 13 Sheerness East 35.97 5911 12 Leysdown & Warden 0.30 4519 14 Kemsley 35.28 6198 13 Kemsley 0.29 4998 15 Sheerness West 34.75 6390 14 St Anns 0.28 5189 15 Roman 0.25 6333 APPENDIX A Top 15 most deprived EMPLOYMENT SOA’s in Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 Top 15 most deprived HEALTH DEPRIVATION & DISABILITY SOA’s in Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007

Rank Ward IND Rank Rank Ward IND Score Rank Score of IMD of IMD 1 Murston 0.30 424 1 Sheerness East 1.54 1453 2 Sheerness East 0.30 490 S h e p p e y C e n tral 1.33 2359 2 3 Leysdown & Warden 0.23 1696 3 Sheerness West 1.29 2558 4 Sheerness West 0.22 2050 4 Sheppey Central 1.23 2817 5 Sheerness West 0.19 2770 5 Murston 1.21 2981 6 Sheppey Central 0.19 3319 6 Sheerness West 1.14 3426 7 Sheppey Central 0.18 3523 7 Leysdown & Warden 1.11 3597 8 Sheerness West 0.17 3839 8 Milton Regis 0.85 5673 9 Davington 0.17 4484 9 Davington 0.78 6433 10 Queenborough & Halfway 0.15 5181 10 Sheerness West 0.77 6544 11 Roman 0.15 6007 11 Queenborough & Halfway 0.74 6778 12 Watling 0.15 6339 12 Abbey 0.72 6991 13 Milton Regis 0.15 6444 13 Kemsley 0.65 7809 14 Sheerness East 0.15 6448 14 Sheerness West 0.58 8529 15 Kemsley 0.15 6681 15 Minster Cliffs 0.58 8554 APPENDIX A Top 15 most deprived EDUCATION, SKILLS & TRAINING Top 15 most deprived BARRIERS TO HOUSING & SOA’s in Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation SERVICES SOA’s in Swale according to the Index of Multiple 2007 Deprivation 2007

Rank Ward IND Score Rank Rank Ward IND Score Rank of of IMD IMD

1 Sheerness East 93.65 53 1 Leysdown & Warden 55.39 105 S heppey Central 90.77 93 L e y s d o w n & W a rden 53.51 165 2 2 3 Sheerness West 84.10 254 3 East Downs 48.53 599 4 Sheppey Central 79.62 409 4 East Downs 44.23 1255 5 Murston 77.15 508 5 Boughton & Courtenay 40.73 2075 6 Sheerness West 76.70 526 6 Boughton & Courtenay 40.23 2221 7 Leysdown & Warden 74.64 625 7 Boughton & Courtenay 39.09 2560 8 Milton Regis 74.10 655 8 Queenborough 35.81 3769 9 Davington 73.26 698 9 Teynham & Lynsted 35.71 3814 10 Sheerness West 70.90 859 10 Borden 33.98 4675 Q u e e n b o r o u g h & Halfway 69.21 979 H a r t l i p , N e w i n g ton & 30.98 6898 11 11 Upchurch 12 Abbey 67.97 1064 12 Watling 29.30 7659 13 Kemsley 67.30 1115 13 Grove 29.15 7763 14 Sheerness West 66.88 1148 14 Sheppey Central 28.65 8126 15 Minster Cliffs 59.20 1897 15 Minster Cliffs 28.30 8398 APPENDIX A Top 15 most deprived LIVING ENVIRONMENT SOA’s in Top 15 most deprived CRIME & DISORDER SOA’s in Swale Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007

Rank Ward IND Score Rank of Rank Ward IND Score Rank of IMD IMD

1 Sheerness East 50.52 2525 1 Sheerness East 1.31 1860 S h e e r n e s s W e s t 47.63 3129 S h e e r n e s s W e s t 1.29 1969 2 2 3 Roman 45.57 3612 3 Roman 0.99 4007 4 Leysdown & Warden 45.13 3707 4 Leysdown & Warden 0.86 5122 5 Sheerness East 42.89 4237 5 Sheerness East 0.72 6440 6 Teynham & Lynsted 40.62 4917 6 Teynham & Lynsted 0.71 6581 7 Sheerness East 38.68 5503 7 Sheerness East 0.69 6886 8 Boughton & Courtenay 38.37 5605 8 Boughton & Courtenay 0.66 7132 9 Sheerness East 37.40 5927 9 Sheerness East 0.66 7233 10 St Michaels 29.92 8635 10 St Michaels 0.65 7321 A b b e y 29.67 8753 A b b e y 0.64 7397 11 11 12 Chalkwell 29.63 8770 12 Chalkwell 0.64 7439 13 Roman 29.15 8985 13 Roman 0.62 7670 14 East Downs 28.69 9186 14 East Downs 0.61 7726 15 Teynham & Lynsted 27.80 9573 15 Teynham & Lynsted 0.60 7877 APPENDIX A