Developments in the Middle East: Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa

מרכז עזרי לחקר איראן ומדינות המפרץ This volume is a collection of the proceedings of the webinar “Developments in The Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Research the Middle East” held on 14 October 2020. The event was the ﬁrst international webinar to mark the academic collaboration between the Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Research, University of Haifa, Israel and the Department of Developments in the Middle East: Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa. That academic collaboration being within the “Framework for Academic Proceedings of Colloquium 14/10/2020 Collaboration” that was agreed upon and signed between the two universities in April 2018. Speakers at the webinar were, Professor Philippe Burger, Professor Glen Segell (editor) Shaul Chorev, Dr. Thamar E. Gindin, Dr. Eben Coetzee, Ashkan Safaei Hakimi, Professor Amatzia Baram, Dr. Eran Segal, Dr. Soli Shahvar, Dr. Ido Zelkovitz, Dr. Glen Segell, Professor Theo Neethling, Professor Hussein Solomon and Dr. Moshe Terdiman. Proceedings of the Webinar "Developments in the Middle East" First international Webinar to mark the Framework for Academic Collaboration between the Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Research, University of Haifa, and the Department of Political Studies and Governance University of the Free State מרכז עזרי לחקר איראן ומדינות המפרץ The Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Research Developments in the Middle East: Proceedings of Colloquium 14/10/2020 GLEN SEGELL (Editor) Copyright © Glen Segell 2021 (Editor) Copyright © Glen Segell 2021 (Cover Design) Noga Yoselevich: Graphic Design Cover Satellite Image Copyright © NASA Johnson Space Centre All rights reserved. ISBN 9798699275601 (Paperback) Imprint: Independently published DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29659.39201 University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel ISBN 9781901414462 (EPUB) British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), save with written permission. An academic collaboration of the University Israel of Haifa, Haifa, Israel The Department Political Studies and and the University of the Free State, Governance University of the Free State Bloemfontein, South Africa P.O. Box 339 The Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Bloemfontein Research 9300 University of Haifa South Africa 199 Abba Hushi Ave Mount Carmel Haifa 3498838 PREFACE This volume is a collection of the proceedings of the webinar “Developments in the Middle East” that was the first international webinar to mark the academic collaboration between the Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Research, University of Haifa, Israel and the Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa. That academic collaboration being within the “Framework for Academic Collaboration” that was agreed upon and signed between the two universities in April 2018. The webinar was held via ZOOM on 14 October 2020. The webinar took place to ensure that even due to the global pandemic of COVID-19, the academic interchange and discourse continues. It comes after an international workshop, that was due to be hosted by the University of Haifa on 12 March 2020 was canceled due to health & safety concerns brought on by COVID-19. During the webinar each of the 11 expert speakers presented for 10 minutes. The webinar was open to a global public audience, who watched via ZOOM and Facebook and who submitted written questions. There were 247 in this audience. The video recording of the webinar was made available immediately after the event and within an hour had 439 downloads. There has been a rigorous peer-review of the presentations published in this volume. I would like to thank all those involved, first and foremost the presenters, and authors in this volume, and not less those in the universities who value education. Glen Segell Akko 24 October 2020 CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 PROFESSOR PHILIPPE BURGER INTRODUCTION: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN 6 PROFESSOR SHAUL CHOREV PANEL 1: IRAN 9 THE THREAT OF A NUCLEAR IRAN: A DISSIDENT VIEW 10 DR. EBEN COETZEE IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH: SAME SOUL, TWO BODIES 14 ASHKAN SAFAEI HAKIMI PANEL 2: THE PERSIAN GULF 18 IRAQ’S NEW PREMIER AND HIS GOVERNMENT: COMMITMENTS AND CHALLENGES 19 PROFESSOR AMATZIA BARAM SAUDI ARABIA AND KUWAIT – TOWARDS A NEW MODEL FOR SUCCESSION IN THE RULING FAMILY 24 DR. ERAN SEGAL PANEL 3: ISRAEL AND PALESTINIANS 29 THE PALESTINIAN QUESTION IN IRI’S FOREIGN AND ANTI-ISRAEL POLICY 30 DR. SOLI SHAHVAR ISRAEL, THE GULF AND THE PALESTINIAN QUESTION 36 DR. IDO ZELKOVITZ NEW DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS TRANSFORMS GEOPOLITICS 39 DR. GLEN SEGELL PANEL 4: MIddLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 42 CHINA’S MILITARY PRESENCE IN DJIBOUTI: DRIVING FORCES AND SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MENA REGION 43 PROFESSOR THEO NEETHLING MANAGING IDENTITY POLITICS IN THE FRACTIOUS MENA REGION 47 PROFESSOR HUSSEIN SOLOMON THE RENAISSANCE DAM IN ETHIOPIA 51 DR. MOSHE TERDIMAN WEBINAR PROGRAM: 14 OCTOBER 2020 54 ABOUT THE ACADEMIC PARTNERS AND CONTRIBUTORS 55 PROCEEDINGS OF COLLOQUIUM: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST 5 FOREWORD Professor Philippe Burger The University of the Free State For decades the Middle East has stood central to several complex geopolitical developments. As a result, scholars from around the world have studied these developments to gain a better understanding of the implications these developments hold for economies, politics and societies across the world. The Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State comprises several scholars who do just that, i.e. study the broader Middle East and North Africa to gain a better understanding as scholars and academics. Through a Memorandum of Understanding that aims to facilitate scholarly debate and discussion, these scholars engage with scholars at the Ezri Center for Iran and Gulf States Research at Haifa University. For the scholars at the Department of Political Studies and Governance the choice of Haifa University was not accidental. Just as is the case with the University of the Free State, Haifa University is a very diverse community. In fact, with over 40% of its students being Arab Israeli, and with students from Israel’s Druze community, as well as several distinguished Arab Israel academics, Haifa University is by far the most diverse and inclusive university in Israel. Thus, through scholarly interaction with colleagues and students at Haifa University, scholars at the University of the Free State will be able to interact with members from all these communities in Israel. Scholarly conversations, rooted in academic freedom, and thus the free exchange of ideas, advance our knowledge and hold the promise of fostering a better understanding and appreciation among scholars for the diversity of the world in which we live. This is true even when, or especially when, scholars disagree. Therefore, the collective hope of scholars from both the Ezri Center and the Department of Political Studies and Governance is that the exchange of ideas and academic debate between them will contribute to a better and inclusive understanding and appreciation of the complexities in the Middle East. 6 PROCEEDINGS OF COLLOQUIUM: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST INTRODUCTION: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN Professor Shaul Chorev The University of Haifa Introduction I am very pleased that the first international Webinar to mark the cooperation agreement between the University of Haifa, Israel and University of the Free State, South Africa has been realized. I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. Glen Segell for his endless efforts despite the Covid 19 pandemic, to hold the workshop through the Webinar. Although the workshop focused on the Middle East as a whole, this introduction article restricts itself to recent developments taking place in the Eastern Mediterranean. Given its strategic location, the Eastern Mediterranean has historically been a point of conflict since antiquity. It was an important theater in World War II and of growing competition between American and Soviet naval forces during the Cold War. Turkey’s 1974 invasion of Northern Cyprus and subsequent de facto partition of the island added another layer of complexity. What makes the Eastern Mediterranean so combustible today is the nexus of a number of complex and volatile issues, including: historic ambitions, conflicting assertions of sovereignty, competition over control of the newly discovered natural gas reserves, pipeline politics, civil wars and political chaos in the littoral states, US retrenchment, Russian naval base expansion in Syria, divisions among NATO allies, and waves of migration and refugees. Turkey Turkey’s geo-political ambitions are manifest in the 2019 Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) agreement between Turkey and the UN-endorsed Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). While the Turkish-Libyan accord ostensibly establishes an EEZ from Libya’s northeast shore to Turkey’s southern Mediterranean coast. Under the agreement, Turkey considers itself legitimately expanding its territorial continental shelf, ignoring the Greek islands, many of which are off the coast of PROCEEDINGS OF COLLOQUIUM: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST 7 Turkey. This accord

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