The UK's EU Referendum

The sixth in DeHavilland's UK/EU referendum series, this briefing takes stock of the situation following the agreement at the European Council on the 19th of February.

It looks at the campaign rules for British ministers, as senior figures declare their positions and presents the results of a DeHavilland poll of parliamentarians on their stance.

Date set

The 23rd of June 2016 has been set as the date that the UK will vote on whether it wants to remain a member of the European Union.

After months of painstaking negotiations since Prime Minister David Cameron promised the referendum over three years ago, a deal agreed in Brussels has provided the catalyst for the date to be set, and cabinet ministers to start declaring their positions, having been allowed to campaign on either side of the debate by a wary PM. immigrants. None of this is fundamental

The agreement, signed off late on a Friday at change, but there are nonetheless some the European Council on the 19th of February significant concessions from other Member (talks overrunning well into the evening as States. such summits tend to), sets out the UK's future constitutional relationship with the EU in the Campaign Rules event of a 'Remain' vote. In order to avoid the appearance of complete The text allows David Cameron to claim that disunity within the Conservative Party, Mr he has negotiated an improved deal for the UK Cameron set some strict rules on how – a prerequisite for him campaigning to stay in Ministers must conduct themselves during the the bloc, but it does not impress Eurosceptics, campaign, whether they decide to vote in or who question whether there is anything of out. substance in the deal. The Prime Minister is clear that he expects all Despite two weeks of furious diplomacy, not Ministers to follow the party’s manifesto on much changed from the draft agreement Europe until a renegotiation has been reached, published by European Council President that those intending to vote out must not air Donald Tusk on the 2nd of February their views in parliament, and that special (download our earlier analysis here). advisers must advise Ministers on the issue in

their own time. Mr Cameron has achieved a mostly symbolic opt-out from the principle of ever-closer Finally, Mr Cameron is concerned that union, certain complicated safeguards for non- Ministers, regardless of their position, treat eurozone Member States, and a contentious each other with respect and courtesy. 'emergency brake' on benefits for EU

© DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2016 The Cabinet Office has published guidance on Who’s in and who’s out the referendum for Special Advisers and Civil Servants. The guidance stresses the Now that the final settlement has been importance of civil servants continuing to published, most members of the Cabinet have follow the civil service code, acting with declared their intentions to vote either Leave impartiality. or Remain.

Remain Leave

David Cameron Iain Duncan Smith George Osborne Chris Grayling Philip Hammond Theresa Villiers George Osborne

Theresa May Michael Gove As Chancellor, someone who formulated the Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson Conservative 2015 manifesto, and as a key Justine Greening John Whittingdale member of Cameron’s renegotiation team, Mr Nick Morgan Osborne has little choice but to champion the Patrick McLoughlin Government’s deal and vote to remain part of Liz Truss the European Union. Greg Clark Stephen Crabb Following the completion of negotiations in David Mundell Brussels, Mr Osborne told the BBC that “We’re Amber Rudd stronger, safer and better off in the EU.” Mark Harper Anna Soubry Theresa May

Greg Hands Theresa May has been seen to be lining herself Michael Fallon up as the alternative candidate to George Oliver Letwin Osborne, especially since her speech to last Sajid Javid year’s Conservative Party conference was Matthew Hancock pitched to whip up the activists. However, it Robert Halfon looked unlikely that Ms May would break Jeremy Wright cover and risk her Cabinet seat over directly opposing the Prime Minister. Commentators The guidance also mentions that Special have cited her support for the European Arrest Advisers who want to campaign full time Warrant as indicative of her stance. must first resign their post, and those who After the announcement of the final wish to work part time for Government and part time for a campaign must seek permission settlement, Ms May said, “for reasons of security, protection against crime and from the Prime Minister, and have their government salary reduced. terrorism, trade with Europe, and access to markets around the world" it was in the The campaign period known as purdah will national interest to remain in.” apply for the referendum. It will take effect 28 days for the vote on the 23rd June. This means Philip Hammond that the Government will not be able to make any new spending or policy announcements Appointed Foreign Secretary in 2014, Philip Hammond has been seen as a safe pair of during that time. hands for the duration of the complex renegotiation process, alongside his junior

© DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2016 minister David Lidington. Mr Hammond will leave. I believe our country would be freer, campaign in lockstep with his boss to sell the fairer and better off outside the EU.” Government’s deal to the British public. Iain Duncan Smith “This deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in the EU. We will be One of the veteran and most vocal stronger, safer and better off in a reformed EU eurosceptics in David Cameron’s Cabinet, Iain on these terms than we would be out on our Duncan Smith is set to be one of the leading own.” independent voices for the Leave campaign.

“I think the lack of our control on our borders

is a critical deal […] We originally wanted a Boris Johnson brake on migration […] This open border does not allow us to check or control people…” The ever-enigmatic and capricious Boris

Johnson kept politicians, the public and, reportedly, the Prime Minister guessing over DH Parliamentary Polling his stance in the referendum until the last DeHavilland polled MPs and peers across the possible minute. The London Mayor’s decision political spectrum, asking them which way to campaign to Leave the EU was arguably a they intended to vote, and whether Mr big boost for that side of the campaign. Cameron’s renegotiation had an impact on

“This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to vote for their decision. Here are the results. real change in Britain’s relations with Europe. This is the only opportunity we will ever have to show that we care about self-rule. A vote to Position in the EU Referendum Remain will be taken in Brussels as a green by party light for more federalism, and for the erosion 100% of democracy.” 90% Michael Gove 80% 70% It has been difficult to predict on which side 60% the Justice Secretary would come down. In 50% December 2015, Mr Gove ruled out backing a 40% Brexit and urged colleagues to get behind the 30% renegotiation strategy. Further reports in 20% January 2016 suggest that Mr Gove has been 10% persuaded to through his support behind the Remain campaign. 0%

However, after the final settlement had been made, Mr Gove decided to back Leave. In a statement released on the Vote Leave Facebook page, Mr Gove said, “I cannot duck I am undecided at present the choice which the Prime Minister has given Remain in the EU every one of us. In a few months' time we will Leave the EU all have the opportunity to decide whether Britain should stay in the European Union or

Other

Labour

Conservative

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 N/A

What Will Happen Next? standing for re-election; I have no other agenda than what is best for our country.” His The settlement has been agreed. The date has remarks suggest that Remain will try and been set, 23rd June. Following the final make the campaign about trust, as opposed to agreement attention turned, almost fear. immediately, to which way key members of the Cabinet would be voting. So furious was While Mr Cameron’s Commons statement the speculation that the pound dropped to a made it clear that it was the duty of the Leave seven-year low on Boris Johnson’s campaign to what the UK might look like announcement that he would back Brexit. outside of the EU, the Cabinet Office has started the ball rolling by outlining the process Now that members of the Cabinet have for withdrawing from the institution. declared their voting intentions, the developments of the Remain and Leave The paper looks at Article 50 of the Treaty on campaign are likely to fill the next big stories. the European Union closely, and is likely to shift the debate to what negotiations with Some commentators are bracing themselves Europe might look like following a leave vote. for the Government to run a negative In the briefing published by the Cabinet campaign, or “project fear” as it has been Office, the Government has already warned dubbed. This assertion is not unfounded, that the negotiations could lead to a “decade particularly when the Government’s strategies or more of uncertainty.” for the 2015 General Election and the Scottish referendum are considered. The Leave campaign has, however, made a strong start. The weekend of the final Yet David Cameron’s statement in the settlement saw both Michael Gove and Boris Commons on Monday 22nd February seemed Johnson confess they would depart from the to represent a departure from the negative Government’s position. narrative. The Prime Minister was keen to convey to the Chamber, and the public, his Journalists have argued that Michael Gove sincere belief in the renegotiation: “I am not gives the Leave campaign the necessary

© DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2016 intellectual credibility it has been lacking, While it is impossible to foresee the outcome while the London Mayor ensures the Leave of the referendum at the moment, it is message can be effectively packaged. In other guaranteed that a vote will do nothing to words, together they give the political capital resolve tensions within the Conservative Party necessary to ensure the creditability of an Out over the EU (and it is more than likely to be vote. used as a yardstick among the party faithful in the next leadership contest.) In the last few days this prediction has proved quite insightful. We have seen Boris move It’s not just politicians that will make markets, and Gove in the trenches over the headlines during the campaign. Before legal implications of the text of the Cameron had finished delivering his speech to renegotiation. It is also noticeable that, during the Commons on Monday he faced questions these developments, the likes of George over the behaviours of civil servants and Galloway and Nigel Farage have kept SpAds. Conservative MP Nadine Dorries relatively quiet. stood up and questioned the ethics of a civil servant who is allegedly campaigning for One of the most interesting questions that is Remain. yet to be answered fully is how Jeremy Corbyn will behave during the campaign. Jeremy Although the Government has tried to pre- Corbyn had a reputation as a Eurosceptic, empt accusations of bending the civil service before becoming Labour Leader. Some towards Remain by issuing strict impartiality suspect that he remains a sceptic, but political guidelines, it is not the last time we will see pressures have forced his position. Brexit voters claiming the Government has broken the campaign rules. Indeed, the Leave Regardless of his actions or intentions, the camp will most likely try and win popular Labour Leader has a knack for grabbing support by position itself as the anti- headlines. The weekend following the establishment choice. settlement, the Shadow Cabinet plans to make an aggressive start in campaigning for For those inside the ‘Westminster bubble,’ and Remain. only those inside the bubble, the referendum poses an interesting question about the Jeremy Corbyn has been criticised for deciding relevance and significance of polling. The to attend a CND rally instead. Corbyn’s General Election exit polls proved themselves gestures could prove a powerful tool for the almost useless for predicting the May 2015 Leave campaign. If he signals that he is result. uninterested in remaining part of the European Union, his supporters might be That scepticism, which will carry through to convinced to vote ‘Out’. the referendum vote, is likely to be intensified by the fact that political party preferences Mr Corbyn won’t be the only political story seem to offer no reliable indication of voters’ during the campaign, however. Labour and intentions. the Liberal Democrats have always characterised Euroscepticism as a Tory As the campaign comes to an end, the polls problem, and the press will be looking for any will inevitably narrow, and any last minute whiff of dissent among Ministers, or rise or fall in support for either side will likely Conservative backbench MPs, especially those dominate the headlines in the last few days. liable to change their minds halfway through the campaign.

© DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2016 Article 50 would likely be much, with a less concrete deadline in sight. As the referendum date draws nearer, there is Not only would a majority of other national plenty of discussion over the effect that governments need to sign off on a deal with leaving the EU would have on the UK, and on the UK, but the European Parliament would what model it should pursue for a post-Brexit also have to consent. Given how hard it would relationship. likely be to even reach an agreement within Less has been said about how exactly leaving the British government, this raises the very would work in the event of such a vote, but it real possibility of a very sudden exit after two is worth taking the briefest of looks at the years. process, if only because the UK would find It is interesting to note, finally, that Article 50 itself in an unprecedented situation – no was only added to the treaties with the Treaty Member States has ever left the union before of Lisbon of 2009. (with the arguable exception of Greenland in 1985).

The process for leaving is set out in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU). The first step is to notify the European Council. In a rather awkward case of timing, there is a European Council summit taking place on the 23rd and 24th of June – meaning that the results of the referendum would come in while David Cameron is in Brussels. What comes next is less clear.

"The Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal". If no agreement is reached after two years, then the country is considered to have left, unless the period is extended by agreement of both parties.

If the negotiations over the last few months seemed tortuous, then such Brexit negotiations

For details of all key dates in the run-up to the referendum, see DeHavilland's timeline, which will be continuously updated as the situation evolves. Bookmark this link to stay on top of events.