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University of Oklahoma Graduate College UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE SUPPORTING SITUATION AWARENESS AND DECISION MAKING IN WEATHER FORECASTING A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By ELIZABETH MINTMIRE ARGYLE Norman, Oklahoma 2016 SUPPORTING SITUATION AWARENESS AND DECISION MAKING IN WEATHER FORECASTING A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE SCHOOL OF INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING BY ______________________________ Dr. Randa L. Shehab, Co-Chair ______________________________ Dr. Ziho Kang, Co-Chair ______________________________ Dr. Jonathan J. Gourley ______________________________ Dr. Scott Gronlund ______________________________ Dr. Pamela Heinselman ______________________________ Dr. Theodore Trafalis © Copyright by ELIZABETH MINTMIRE ARGYLE 2016 All Rights Reserved. Acknowledgments This work would not be complete without expressing gratitude to all of my friends, family, and colleagues who have supported me throughout this work. First, I would like to thank my co-advisors, Dr. Randa L. Shehab and Dr. Ziho Kang, for their support. Since my undergraduate days, Dr. Shehab has inspired me to aim high, to work hard, and to be persistent, leading me to where I am now. In addition, I greatly appreciate Dr. Kang’s feedback and insights. Many of the ideas and methods contained within this dissertation matured as a result of numerous productive discussions with both Dr. Shehab and Dr. Kang. I would also like to thank Dr. Jonathan Gourley and the members of the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) team, who gave me many first-hand opportunities to learn about the world of weather forecasting. As a member of the team, I have grown to appreciate and enjoy conducting interdisciplinary research. I have valued working with and learning from Zac, Race, Jess, Jill, Galateia, Steve, Ami, Humberto, and Pierre. Each of them provided valuable feedback, time, and expertise during this research, for which I am especially grateful. I would not be where I am today were it not for Dr. Chen Ling. In the years we have worked together, she has been a role model, mentor, and friend. I would like to express my utmost thanks to her for introducing me to the field of human factors, for fostering my interest in research, and for encouraging me to pursue new opportunities. My greatest thanks must be given to my family and friends. Throughout my life, my parents and sister have instilled values into me, particularly in relation to education, exploration, and creativity. I am immensely grateful for their advice, iv encouragement, and support that has shaped who I am today. In addition, I wish to thank my good friends, Rachel and Natalie, whose friendship has been a foundation for me over many years. Last but certainly not least, I would like to thank Peter for his patience, empathy, and support over the years. I am truly thankful to have had such a friend and partner supporting me in this endeavor. v Table of Contents Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………. iv Table of Contents……….…………………………………………………………... vi List of Tables……………………………………………………………………….. ix List of Figures………………………………………………………………………. x Abstract…………………….……………………………………………………….. xii Chapter 1 | Introduction………………………………………………………….. 1 Situation Awareness and Decision Making………………………………… 5 Problem Statement………………………………………………………...... 6 Significance………………………………………………………………… 8 Research Questions…………………………………………………………. 9 Hypotheses………………………………………………………………...... 10 Scope…………………………………………………................................... 11 Summary……………………………………………………………………. 12 Chapter 2 | Literature Review…………………………………………………..... 14 Theoretical Models of Situation Awareness and Decision Making………... 15 Situation Awareness Theories……………………………………… 16 Sensemaking………………………………………………………... 31 Summary of the Models…………………………………………….. 40 Assessment of Situation Awareness………………………………………... 41 Probe-based Techniques……………………………………………. 42 Rating Approaches………………………………………………….. 45 Observational Approaches………………………………………….. 47 Physiological Indices……………………………………………….. 50 Summary of the Assessment Methods……………………………… 53 Decision Making in Weather Forecasting………………………………….. 53 Weather Forecasting from a Human Perspective…………………... 55 Situation Awareness in Weather Forecasting………………………. 62 Design for SA in Weather Forecasting Decision Support Systems… 65 Summary of the Weather Forecasting Literature…………………… 74 Chapter 3 | Display Design and Situation Awareness in Flash Flood Detection. 77 Introduction……….………………………………………………………… 77 The Research Question……………………………………………... 80 Hypotheses…….……………………………………………………. 81 Method……………………………………………………………………… 82 Experimental Design……………………………………………….. 82 Materials and Equipment…..……………………………………….. 83 Participants…………………………………………………………. 85 Procedure…….……………………………………………………... 85 Results…..………………………………………………………………….. 86 Error Rates………………………………………………………….. 86 vi Bias and Sensitivity…..…………………………………………….. 87 Task Completion Time……..………………………………………. 88 Effect of Display Design on Congruent Decisions……..…………... 88 The Relationship Between Event Size and Response…….………… 90 Discussion…….…………………………………………………………….. 95 Data Aggregation in Visual Decision Aids………………………… 96 Signal Detection and Weather Forecast Decision Making…….…… 99 Limitations………………………………………………………….. 103 Summary……………………………………………………………………. 105 Chapter 4 | A Mixed Methods Approach to Understanding Situation Awareness and Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting…………………………… 107 Introduction…………………………………………………………………. 107 Uncertainty and SA in Weather Forecasting……………………….. 109 The Research Questions…….……………………………………… 114 Hypotheses……….…………………………………………………. 115 The Hazardous Weather Testbed Hydrology Experiment 2014……………. 116 Study I: Quantitative Analysis of Information Seeking Behavior………….. 118 Method…..………………………………………………………….. 118 Results and Analysis………………………………………………... 122 Discussion of Study I……………………………………………….. 137 Study II: Forecasters’ Management of Uncertainty and the Forecast Decision Making Process in HWT-Hydro 2014……………………………. 139 Method……………………………………………………………… 139 Findings from the Thematic Analysis……..………………………... 144 Study II Discussion and Recommendations………………………... 163 General Discussion…….…………………………………………………… 165 Situation Assessment in Weather Forecasting…….………………... 166 Uncertainty Management Techniques……………………………… 168 Theoretical Contribution to Understanding Uncertainty and SA…... 171 Limitations………………………………………………………….. 173 Summary…….……………………………………………………………… 175 Chapter 5 | Automation and Situation Awareness in Flash Flood Forecasting.. 177 Introduction…………………………………………………………………. 177 The Research Questions…….……………………………………… 179 Hypotheses………………………………………………………….. 180 Method……………………………………………………………………… 182 Participants…….…………………………………………………… 182 Scenario Selection……..…….……………………………………... 184 Recommender Development……………………………………….. 185 Data Collection Systems…….……………………………………… 187 Experimental Design……………………………………………….. 188 Procedure…………………………………………………………… 188 Results and Analysis…….………………………………………………….. 190 vii Task Duration………………………………………………………. 192 Eye Tracking Metrics………………………………………………. 193 Links Between SA Performance and Eye Movements…….……….. 203 Confidence Level Analysis…….…………………………………… 206 Discussion…….…………………………………………………………….. 207 Implications for Eye Tracking as an SA Assessment Method…..…. 210 Implications for Recommender Development……..……………….. 212 Limitations………………………………………………………….. 215 Summary……..……………………………………………………………... 217 Chapter 6 | Discussion and Conclusions…………………………………………. 219 Limitations………………………………………………………………….. 222 Decision Making in Weather Forecasting………………………………….. 224 A Reflection Upon Situation Awareness in Theory and Practice………….. 227 Future Work………………………………………………………………… 231 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….. 234 Works Cited………………………………………………………………………… 236 Appendices…………………………………………………………………………. 254 Appendix A: Logistic Regression Odds Ratios from Chapter 3…………… 254 Appendix B: Guidance Products Available in HWT-Hydro 2014…………. 255 Appendix C: Portion of a Screen Recording Transcript from HWT-Hydro.. 257 Appendix D: Focus Group Questions in HWT-Hydro 2014……………….. 258 Appendix E: List of Probes Used in Chapter 5…………………………….. 259 Appendix F: Example Briefing Used in Chapter 5………………………… 261 viii List of Tables Table 1. Interpretation of error rates in the property damage detection task…... 82 Table 2. Comparison of average-based and maximum-based display types in terms error rates……………………………………………………….. 87 Table 3. Error rates for viewing the local-level events………………………… 87 Average time (in seconds) taken to produce a hit, miss, correct Table 4. rejection, or false alarm, analyzed with a t-test……………………….. 88 Table 5. Counts of congruent and incongruent decisions by display condition for high-level threats ………………………………………………….. 89 Table 6. Counts of congruent and incongruent decisions by display condition for low-level threats…………………………………………………… 89 Table 7. Counts of congruent choices by threat level, independent of display type…………………………………………………………………… 90 Table 8. Experimental flash flood decision support products………………….. 120 Table 9. Number and duration of sampled desktop recordings for flash flood watch forecasts………………………………………………………... 125 Table 10. Number and duration of sampled desktop recordings for flash flood warning forecasts……………………………………………………… 130 Table 11. Steps for conducting a thematic analysis……………………………... 144 Table 12. Description of the guidance products used in the present study……… 186 Table
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