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Realizing the Low-Carbon Future

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Realizing the Low-Carbon Future GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 5 BEYOND GREENWASHING: INSTRUMENTS TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROTECT THE PLANET’S RESOURCES cording to 2017 data, the US still produces that a low-carbon transition could require Realizing the twice as much as carbon dioxide per capita $3.5 trillion in energy sector investments as China and nearly nine times as much every year for decades – twice the current as India, highlighting the increased envi- rate. Under the agency’s scenario, in order low-carbon future ronmental impact of higher standards of for carbon emissions to stabilize by 2050, living. All of this means the Paris Climate nearly 95% of the electricity supply must Agreement’s goal of limiting the global be low carbon, 70% of new cars must be What role for central banks and monetary temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Cel- electric, and the carbon-dioxide intensity sius could be a pipe dream if energy in- of the building sector must fall by 80%. authorities? vestments worldwide do not change. For markets to anticipate and smooth The economy-wide changes needed to the transition to a low-carbon world, they attain a low-carbon future are enormous: need information, proper risk manage- a massive reallocation of capital is need- ment and coherent, credible public-policy The author: ABSTRACT ed, which presents unprecedent risks and frameworks. That could be strengthened Placing both advanced and developing opportunities to the financial system. The by central banks and monetary authori- Venkatachalam countries on a low-carbon path requires International Energy Agency estimates ties. Anbumozhi an unprecedented shift in private invest- Senior Energy Economist, ments and new financing models. The ERIA financial sector will have to play a cen- tral role in this low-carbon transforma- tion, while avoiding destabilizing effects Figure 1: Annual CO emissions per country (tons of CO , 2017) on economic systems. Central banks and 2 2 other financial institutions are ready to use their extensive knowledge in lending, investment, and smart advisory services to achieve the low-carbon targets expressed in the Paris Agreement. With support from central banks, commercial and national The institution: development banks can offer diverse fi- nancing products with maximum impact and appropriate risk management. Despite increased calls to reduce global carbon emissions in light of climate change, energy-related carbon dioxide The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN emissions worldwide rose 1.7% last year, and East Asia is an international organization hitting a record high (IEA, 2018). It is the providing research and policy support to the fastest rate of growth since 2013. While East Asia region and the ASEAN and EAS emissions declined in Europe, they were summit process. It was established in Jakarta, up in big G20 economies like the US, China Indonesia at the third East Asia Summit in 2007, serving 16 member countries of the and India (Fig 1). Coal, especially in Asia, region, providing policy recommendation for played a significant role in the increase. At further economic integration in the East Asia the same time, it is worth noting that ac- 106 107 GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 5 BEYOND GREENWASHING: INSTRUMENTS TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROTECT THE PLANET’S RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE, A LOW- CARBON the financial sector are closely linked to which will be written off the balance sheets system, while avoiding excessive economic FUTURE AND LIABILITY AND adjustments in real sectors and can be of the companies that own them. Other losses and financial instability. REGULATORY RISKS triggered by: physical assets that could become strand- The investment community faces several • mandatory or voluntary changes in ed include part of the fossil fuel-driven ROLE OF CENTRAL BANKS IN kinds of risks as a result of such market- emission-control policies that companies electricity-generation capacity stock, resi- CATALYSING PRIVATE FINANCE FOR A based and regulatory actions. Regulatory need to comply with, possibly entailing ad- dential housing, real estate, transportation LOW-CARBON TRANSITION risk is most relevant to the financial sec- ditional costs; infrastructure and other forms of carbon- Dikau and Volz (2018) distinguished between tor, followed by liability or litigation risk, • declining profitability and cash flows intensive industrial technology (Anbumozhi central banks’ responses to environmen- and finally, reputational risk. These risks of projects underwritten by financial insti- et al, 2018). Such asset stranding will not tal externalities affecting their traditional are interlinked and interdependent and tutions, resulting from higher capital and only lead to economic losses and unem- core responsibility of safeguarding mac- may encompass physical risks from the operating expenditures required to miti- ployment, but will also affect the market roeconomic and financial stability, and an adverse impacts of climate change such gate and adapt to climate change; valuation of the companies that own the activist role for central banks in supporting as natural disasters. Anbumozhi (2017) • low-carbon technologies and innova- assets, thus negatively impacting their in- the development of a low-carbon economy. identified three risk categories for G20 tions that render previous technologies or vestors, and potentially triggering cascade They also took climate risk into account in economies: (i) Physical risks include the products financed by financial institutions effects throughout the deeply intercon- the design of monetary policy and financial impact on insurance liabilities and finan- obsolete; and nected financial system (Table 1). regulation in the pursuit of the traditional cial assets that result from climate- and • a shift by consumers away from high Hence, the changing role of central goals of price and financial stability. This weather-related events such as floods and carbon-emitting products. banks and monetary authorities is to find can be described as the passive aspect of storms which damage property or disrupt a gradually shrinking window of opportu- green central banking because, in pursuing trade. The consequences are the greatest nity that would allow societies to achieve a their established goals, central banks may for the insurance sector, but also extend » The economy- rapid transition to a low-carbon economic need to incorporate environmental factors more broadly. (ii) Liability risks occur when parties that have suffered loss or damage wide changes from the effects of climate change seek compensation from parties they hold re- need to attain Table 1: The trade-offs in transition to a low-carbon future sponsible. Such claims could come dec- ades in the future, creating liabilities for a low-carbon fossil-fuel extractors and emitters and No low-carbon Rapid or orderly Abrupt transition their insurers. (iii) Transition risks are the future are transition transition financial risks that could result from the Stranded physical process of adjustment towards a lower- enormous.« assets (e.g., fossil- carbon economy. Changes in policy, tech- fuel reserves) and Minimal stranding Short term No stranded assets stranded financial nology, and physical risks could prompt a of assets assets (e.g., loss in reassessment of the value of a large range Whether driven by unanticipated poli- market valuation of assets as costs and opportunities be- cies, technological developments or mar- and cascade effects) come apparent. Particularly rapid repric- ket preferences, the shift to a low-carbon ing could threaten financial stability. future will cause a system-wide societal Climate-induced Minimal climate- No significant damages to When financial institutions are unpre- adjustment, during which certain sectors induced damages climate-induced Long term productive assets, to physical and damages to physical pared to assess or respond to the low- are likely to lose out. For example, respect- climate-related financial assets and financial assets carbon risks described above, they may ing the 2O C threshold in temperatures will financial losses face additional legal risks from inaction require a large portion of existing reserves (OECD, 2016). Further, transition risks in of coal, oil and gas to remain in the ground, 108 109 GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 5 BEYOND GREENWASHING: INSTRUMENTS TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROTECT THE PLANET’S RESOURCES into existing frameworks, e.g. into macro- environmental and social (E&S) risk man- the health of individual financial institu- Differentiated capital requirements prudential frameworks, without pursuing agement standards requires financial insti- tions, and the financial system as a whole. Through capital requirements, financial a low-carbon agenda. On the other hand, tutions to incorporate E&S risk factors into Apart from enabling the evaluation of the regulators require financial institutions central banks may be mandated to actively their governance frameworks. To enforce resilience of the financial system to ad- to hold a certain percentage of capital for use the tools at their disposal to promote climate-related risk management beyond verse shocks, climate-related stress tests risk-weighted assets, which is usually ex- green investment or discourage brown in- disclosure, green E&S risk management would also be necessary to calibrate green pressed in the capital-to-risk (weighted) vestment and play a developmental role. standards may also establish E&S rules macro-prudential policy instruments and assets
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