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Population: an Introduction to Concepts and Issues, Tenth Edition John R POPULATION This page intentionally left blank POPULATION An Introduction to Concepts and Issues Tenth Edition John R. Weeks San Diego State University Australia • Canada • Mexico • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • United States Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, Tenth Edition John R. Weeks Acquisitions Editor: Chris Caldeira Senior Art Director: John Walker Manuscript Editor: Deanna Weeks Print Buyer: Judy Inouye Assistant Editor: Tali Beesley Permissions Editor: Roberta Broyer Technology Project Manager: Dave Lionetti Production Service: Pre-PressPMG Marketing Manager: Michelle Williams Copy Editor: Jennifer Henriquez Marketing Assistant: Emily Elrod Illustrator: Pre-PressPMG Marketing Communications Manager: Linda Yip Cover Designer: Yvo Riezebos Design/Matt Calkins Project Manager, Editorial Production: Marti Paul Compositor: Pre-PressPMG Creative Director: Rob Hugel © 2008, 2005 Thomson Wadsworth, a part of The Thomson Higher Education Thomson Corporation. Thomson, the Star logo, and 10 Davis Drive Wadsworth are trademarks used herein under license. Belmont, CA 94002-3098 USA ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced For more information about our products, or used in any form or by any means—graphic, elec- contact us at: tronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, Thomson Learning Academic Resource Center recording, taping, Web distribution, information stor- 1-800-423-0563 age and retrieval systems, or in any other manner— without the written permission of the publisher. For permission to use material from this text or product, submit a request online at http://www.thomsonrights.com. Printed in the United States of America Any additional questions about permissions 12345671110090807 can be submitted by e-mail to [email protected]. Library of Congress Control Number: 2007931349 Student Edition: ISBN-13: 978-0-495-09637-5 ISBN-10: 0-495-09637-7 To Deanna This page intentionally left blank BRIEF TABLE OF CONTENTS PART ONE A DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Demography 1 CHAPTER 2 Global Population Trends 30 CHAPTER 3 Demographic Perspectives 66 CHAPTER 4 Demographic Data 108 PART TWO POPULATION PROCESSES CHAPTER 5 The Health and Mortality Transition 146 CHAPTER 6 The Fertility Transition 198 CHAPTER 7 The Migration Transition 262 PART THREE POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHARACTERISTICS CHAPTER 8 The Age Transition 306 CHAPTER 9 The Urban Transition 352 CHAPTER 10 The Family and Household Transition 391 PART FOUR USING THE DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE CHAPTER 11 Population and the Environment 439 CHAPTER 12 Coping with Demographic Change 487 APPENDIX Population Data for the World, Keyed to Figure 2.1 539 GLOSSARY 545 BIBLIOGRAPHY 559 INDEXES 595 This page intentionally left blank DETAILED TABLE OF CONTENTS PART ONE A DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHY 1 WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY? 2 WHY IS DEMOGRAPHY IMPORTANT? 5 Nearly Everything Is Connected to Demography 5 Terrorism and Regional Conflict 6 Embracing and Hating Immigration 7 ESSAY: The Demography of Conflict in the Middle East 8 Globalization 11 Degradation of the Environment 12 The Danger of Demographic Fatigue 13 HOW WILL YOU USE THIS INFORMATION? 14 Demographics of Politics 14 Demographics of Social Planning 16 Demographics of Business 20 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 26 MAIN POINTS 26 QUESTIONS FOR REVIEW 27 SUGGESTED READINGS 28 WEBSITES OF INTEREST 28 CHAPTER 2 GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS 30 WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 32 A Brief History 32 How Fast Is the World’s Population Growing Now? 36 x Detailed Table of Contents The Power of Doubling—How Fast Can Populations Grow? 36 Why Was Early Growth So Slow? 38 Why Are More Recent Increases So Rapid? 39 Are We Headed for a Population “Implosion”? 41 How Many People Have Ever Lived? 41 Redistribution of the World’s Population through Migration 42 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION 44 GLOBAL VARIATION IN POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH 47 North America 48 Mexico and Central America 51 South America 52 Europe 53 Northern Africa and Western Asia 54 Sub-Saharan Africa 55 ESSAY: Implosion or Invasion? The Choices Ahead for the Low Fertility Countries 56 East Asia 58 South and Southeast Asia 60 Oceania 61 GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONTRASTS 62 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 62 MAIN POINTS 63 QUESTIONS FOR REVIEW 64 SUGGESTED READINGS 64 WEBSITES OF INTEREST 65 CHAPTER 3 DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES 66 PREMODERN POPULATION DOCTRINES 69 THE PRELUDE TO MALTHUS 74 THE MALTHUSIAN PERSPECTIVE 75 Causes of Population Growth 76 Consequences of Population Growth 77 ESSAY: Who Are the Neo-Malthusians? 78 Avoiding the Consequences 80 Critique of Malthus 81 Neo-Malthusians 82 THE MARXIAN PERSPECTIVE 83 Causes of Population Growth 83 Consequences of Population Growth 84 Critique of Marx 85 Detailed Table of Contents xi THE PRELUDE TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY 86 Mill 86 Dumont 87 Durkheim 88 THE THEORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION 89 Critique of the Demographic Transition Theory 92 Reformulation of the Demographic Transition Theory 93 The Theory of Demographic Change and Response 95 The Easterlin Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis 97 THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IS REALLY A SET OF TRANSITIONS 98 The Health and Mortality Transition 98 The Fertility Transition 99 The Age Transition 100 The Migration Transition 100 The Urban Transition 101 The Family and Household Transition 101 Impact on Society 102 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 108 MAIN POINTS 104 QUESTIONS FOR REVIEW 105 SUGGESTED READINGS 106 WEBSITES OF INTEREST 106 CHAPTER 4 DEMOGRAPHIC DATA 108 SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA 109 Population Censuses 109 The Census of the United States 114 ESSAY: To Adjust or Not to Adjust—That Is the Question; Or Is It Much Ado About Nothing? 126 The Census of Canada 129 The Census of Mexico 130 REGISTRATION OF VITAL EVENTS 131 COMBINING THE CENSUS AND VITAL STATISTICS 134 ADMINISTRATIVE DATA 135 SAMPLE SURVEYS 136 Demographic Surveys in the United States 136 Canadian Surveys 136 Mexican Surveys 137 Demographic and Health Surveys 137 xii Detailed Table of Contents Demographic Surveillance Systems 138 European Surveys 138 HISTORICAL SOURCES 138 DEMOGRAPHIC USES OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS 139 GIS and the U.S. Census Bureau 141 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 142 MAIN POINTS 143 QUESTIONS FOR REVIEW 144 SUGGESTED READINGS 144 WEBSITES OF INTEREST 145 PART TWO POPULATION PROCESSES CHAPTER 5 THE HEALTH AND MORTALITY TRANSITION 146 DEFINING THE HEALTH AND MORTALITY TRANSITION 147 HEALTH AND MORTALITY CHANGES OVER TIME 148 The Roman Era to the Industrial Revolution 148 Industrial Revolution to the Twentieth Century 150 World War II as a Modern Turning Point 153 Postponing Death by Preventing and Curing Disease 154 The Nutrition Transition 155 LIFE SPAN AND LONGEVITY 156 Life Span 156 Longevity 157 DISEASE AND DEATH OVER THE LIFE CYCLE 159 Age Differentials in Mortality 159 Sex and Gender Differentials in Mortality 164 CAUSES OF POOR HEALTH AND DEATH 168 Communicable Diseases 168 Noncommunicable Conditions 171 Injuries 173 The “Real” Causes of Death 174 MEASURING MORTALITY 176 Crude Death Rate 176 Age/Sex-Specific Death Rates 177 Age-Adjusted Death Rates 182 Life Tables 182 ESSAY: Mortality Control and the Environment 186 Detailed Table of Contents xiii HEALTH AND MORTALITY INEQUALITIES 188 Urban and Rural Differentials 189 Occupation Differentials in Mortality 189 Income and Education 190 Race and Ethnicity 191 Marital Status 193 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 194 MAIN POINTS 195 QUESTIONS FOR REVIEW 196 SUGGESTED READING 196 WEBSITES OF INTEREST 197 CHAPTER 6 THE FERTILITY TRANSITION 198 WHAT IS THE FERTILITY TRANSITION? 199 HOW HIGH COULD FERTILITY LEVELS BE? 200 The Biological Component 200 The Social Component 203 WHY WAS FERTILITY HIGH FOR MOST OF HUMAN HISTORY? 205 Need to Replenish Society 205 Children as Security and Labor 206 Desire for Sons 207 THE PRECONDITIONS FOR A DECLINE IN FERTILITY 209 IDEATIONAL CHANGES THAT MUST TAKE PLACE 210 MOTIVATIONS FOR LOWER FERTILITY LEVELS 211 The Supply-Demand Framework 211 ESSAY: Reproductive Rights, Reproductive Health, and the Fertility Transition 212 The Innovation/Diffusion and “Cultural” Perspective 218 The Role of Public Policy 219 HOW CAN FERTILITY BE CONTROLLED? 220 Proximate Determinants of Fertility 222 Proportion Married—Limiting Exposure to Intercourse 224 Use of Contraceptives 224 Incidence of Abortion 228 Involuntary Infecundity from Breastfeeding 231 The Relative Importance of the Proximate Determinants 232 HOW DO WE MEASURE CHANGES IN FERTILITY? 234 Period Measures of Fertility 235 Cohort Measures of Fertility 240 Fertility Intentions 241 xiv Detailed Table of Contents HOW IS THE FERTILITY TRANSITION ACCOMPLISHED? 242 GEOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY IN THE FERTILITY TRANSITION 243 CASE STUDIES IN THE FERTILITY TRANSITION 245 United Kingdom and Other European Nations 246 China 249 The United States 251 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 257 MAIN POINTS 258 QUESTIONS FOR REVIEW 259 SUGGESTED READINGS 260 WEBSITES OF INTEREST 260 CHAPTER 7 THE MIGRATION TRANSITION 262 WHAT IS THE MIGRATION TRANSITION? 263 DEFINING MIGRATION 264 INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS 265 MEASURING MIGRATION 266 Stocks versus Flows 267 Migration Indices 268 THE MIGRATION TRANSITION WITHIN COUNTRIES 272 Why Do People Migrate? 272 Who Migrates? 276 Where Do People Migrate within Their Own Country? 278 MIGRATION BETWEEN COUNTRIES 280 Why Do People Migrate Internationally? 281 Who Migrates Internationally? 284 Migration Origins and Destinations 285 ESSAY: Is Migration a Crime?
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