Investor Sentiment in Stocks and Bonds
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
A Sentiment Analysis Approach to the Prediction of Market Volatility
A Sentiment Analysis Approach to the Prediction of Market Volatility JUSTINA DEVEIKYTE, Dept. of Computer Science & Information Systems Birkbeck, University of London HELYETTE GEMAN, Dept. of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics Birkbeck, University of London CARLO PICCARI, Dept. of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics Birkbeck, University of London ALESSANDRO PROVETTI, Dept. of Computer Science & Information Systems Birkbeck, University of London Prediction and quantification of future volatility and returns play an important role in financial modelling, both in portfolio optimization and risk management. Natural language processing today allows to process news and social media comments to detect signals of investors’ confidence. We have explored the relationship between sentiment extracted from financial news and tweets and FTSE100 movements. We investigated the strength of the correlation between sentiment measures on a given day and market volatility and returns observed the next day. The findings suggest that there is evidence of correlation between sentiment and stock market movements: the sentiment captured from news headlines could be used as a signal to predict market returns; the same does not apply for volatility. Also, in a surprising finding, for the sentiment found in Twitter comments we obtained a correlation coefficient of -0.7, and p-value below 0.05, which indicates a strong negative correlation between positive sentiment captured from the tweets on a given day and the volatility observed the next day. We developed an accurate classifier for the prediction of market volatility in response to the arrival of new information by deploying topic modelling, based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation, to extract feature vectors from a collection of tweets and financial news. -
Should U.S. Investors Invest Overseas?
Should U.S. Investors Invest Overseas? nterest in foreign investment has been high among U.S. investors in recent years. The unprecedented growth of 401k pension plans has Igreatly increased the number of people who must make their own investment decisions in planning for their retirement. Many investors know that geographic diversification can improve investment returns without increasing risk. However, whether or not to invest abroad and, if so, how much weight to give to foreign investment, are questions often subject to heated debate. Some investment advisors recommend that U.S. investors put as much as one-third of their stock portfolio in foreign stocks to take advantage of the benefits of diversification. Others believe that foreign investment should play only a small role, if any, in a U.S. investor’s stock portfolio. They argue that political uncertainties and currency fluctuations make the value of foreign investments far more volatile for the investor without the offsetting benefits of higher returns, and that diversification benefits are not enough to offset this disadvan- tage.1 Moreover, U.S. investors can get overseas exposure by investing in the stocks of domestic companies. Many U.S. multinationals that are part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, such as IBM and Coca-Cola, derive a substantial portion of their revenue from overseas operations. The question of whether or not to invest abroad is part of the larger question of how to assemble a portfolio that is appropriate for the investor’s circumstances and degree of risk tolerance. Modern portfolio theory, introduced by Markowitz in the 1950s, uses optimization tech- Katerina Simons niques and historical data on the returns, risks, and correlations of available securities to construct a portfolio with the lowest possible risk for a given level of return. -
Roth IRA Vantagepoint Funds
Vantagepoint IRA Funds Stable Value/CashManagement Funds Code U.S. Stock Funds Code Dreyfus Cash Management Fund, Class Participant DPCXX MX Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust, Class Financial Intermediary LMVFX G6 Bond Funds Code Vantagepoint Growth Fund VPGRX MG Vantagepoint Low Duration Bond Fund VPIPX MB Janus Fund, Class S JGORX 6C Vantagepoint Core Bond Index Fund, Class I VPCIX WM T Rowe Price® Growth Stock Fund, Class Advisor TRSAX PX PIMCO Total Return Fund, Class Administrative PTRAX XM T Rowe Price® Blue Chip Growth Fund, Class Advisor PABGX TC Vantagepoint Ination Protected Securities Fund VPTSX MT Legg Mason Capital Management Growth Trust, Class Financial Intermediary LMGFX ES PIMCO Real Return Fund, Class Administrative PARRX HK Janus Forty Fund, Class S JARTX AG PIMCO High Yield Fund, Class Administrative PHYAX XT Vantagepoint Select Value Fund VPSVX M2 Balanced/Asset Allocation Funds Code Fidelity Advisor Value Fund, Class A FAVFX 5F Vantagepoint Milestone Retirement Income Fund VPRRX 4E Vantagepoint Mid/Small Company Index Fund, Class I WDVPSIX Vantagepoint Milestone 2010Fund VPRQX CA Legg Mason Capital Management Special Investment Trust, Class Financial Intermediary LGASX 3V Vantagepoint Milestone 2015Fund VPRPX CH Fidelity Advisor Leveraged Company Stock Fund, Class A FLSAX VV Vantagepoint Milestone 2020Fund VPROX CJ Vantagepoint Aggressive Opportunities Fund VPAOX MA Vantagepoint Milestone 2025Fund VPRNX CN Janus Enterprise Fund, Class S JGRTX N4 Vantagepoint Milestone 2030Fund VPRMX CR American Century® Vista -
Markets Not Capitalism Explores the Gap Between Radically Freed Markets and the Capitalist-Controlled Markets That Prevail Today
individualist anarchism against bosses, inequality, corporate power, and structural poverty Edited by Gary Chartier & Charles W. Johnson Individualist anarchists believe in mutual exchange, not economic privilege. They believe in freed markets, not capitalism. They defend a distinctive response to the challenges of ending global capitalism and achieving social justice: eliminate the political privileges that prop up capitalists. Massive concentrations of wealth, rigid economic hierarchies, and unsustainable modes of production are not the results of the market form, but of markets deformed and rigged by a network of state-secured controls and privileges to the business class. Markets Not Capitalism explores the gap between radically freed markets and the capitalist-controlled markets that prevail today. It explains how liberating market exchange from state capitalist privilege can abolish structural poverty, help working people take control over the conditions of their labor, and redistribute wealth and social power. Featuring discussions of socialism, capitalism, markets, ownership, labor struggle, grassroots privatization, intellectual property, health care, racism, sexism, and environmental issues, this unique collection brings together classic essays by Cleyre, and such contemporary innovators as Kevin Carson and Roderick Long. It introduces an eye-opening approach to radical social thought, rooted equally in libertarian socialism and market anarchism. “We on the left need a good shake to get us thinking, and these arguments for market anarchism do the job in lively and thoughtful fashion.” – Alexander Cockburn, editor and publisher, Counterpunch “Anarchy is not chaos; nor is it violence. This rich and provocative gathering of essays by anarchists past and present imagines society unburdened by state, markets un-warped by capitalism. -
Investor Agreement and Disclosure Handbook
Investor Agreement and Disclosure Handbook This document is intended to provide you, the investor, with important information regarding your agreement to terms and policies established between you and the Lincoln Investment Companies, as well as those disclosures required to be delivered by our regulatory authorities. Please read this information carefully as it pertains to your current investments, and may also be relevant to future investments. Retain this document for your records. If you have any questions regarding the information found within this document, please contact your financial professional. Information contained in this guide supersedes prior disclosures or Handbooks you may have received. CONTENTS TERMS AND CONDITIONS PRE-DISPUTE ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS ....................................................................................................................................... I CUSTOMERS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ..................................................................................................................................... II NATURE OF THE RELATIONSHIP ....................................................................................................................................................... III CONSENT TO ELECTRONIC DELIVERY ............................................................................................................................................. IV ERROR NOTIFICATION & CORRECTION POLICY .............................................................................................................................. -
Vanguard Fund Fact Sheet
Fact sheet | June 30, 2021 Vanguard® Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund Domestic stock fund Fund facts Risk level Total net Expense ratio Ticker Turnover Inception Fund Low High assets as of 05/28/21 symbol rate date number 1 2 3 4 5 $51,232 MM 0.26% VDIGX 15.4% 05/15/92 0057 Investment objective Benchmark Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund seeks to Dividend Growth Spliced Index provide, primarily, a growing stream of income over time and, secondarily, long-term capital Growth of a $10,000 investment : January 31, 2011—D ecember 31, 2020 appreciation and current income. $33,696 Investment strategy Fund as of 12/31/20 The fund invests primarily in stocks that tend to $32,878 offer current dividends. The fund focuses on Benchmark high-quality companies that have prospects for as of 12/31/20 long-term total returns as a result of their ability 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 to grow earnings and their willingness to increase dividends over time. These stocks typically—but not always—will be undervalued Annual returns relative to the market and will show potential for increasing dividends. The fund will be diversified across industry sectors. For the most up-to-date fund data, please scan the QR code below. Annual returns 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fund 9.43 10.39 31.53 11.85 2.62 7.53 19.33 0.18 30.95 12.06 Benchmark 6.32 11.73 29.03 10.12 -1.88 11.93 22.29 -1.98 29.75 15.62 Total returns Periods ended June 30, 2021 Total returns Quarter Year to date One year Three years Five years Ten years Fund 6.56% 11.10% 33.04% 17.04% 14.69% 13.45% Benchmark 5.79% 10.46% 34.52% 17.30% 15.48% 13.09% The performance data shown represent past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. -
Investor Capitalism?
University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform Volume 22 1988 Beyond Managerialism: Investor Capitalism? Alfred F. Conard University of Michigan Law School Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/mjlr Part of the Business Organizations Law Commons, and the Securities Law Commons Recommended Citation Alfred F. Conard, Beyond Managerialism: Investor Capitalism?, 22 U. MICH. J. L. REFORM 117 (1988). Available at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/mjlr/vol22/iss1/5 This Symposium Article is brought to you for free and open access by the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform at University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform by an authorized editor of University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. BEYOND MANAGERIALISM: INVESTOR CAPITALISM? Alfred F. Conard* Table of Contents Introduction ...................................... 118 I. The Rise and the Flaw of Managerialism ....... 120 A . T he Rise ................................ 120 B . T he Flaw ................................ 122 C. Patches on the Flaw ...................... 126 1. Shareholder derivative suits ............ 126 2. Shareholder democracy ................ 127 3. Independent directors ................. 128 4. Specific prohibitions ................... 130 II. The Investorial Alternative .................... 131 A. The Institutional Eruption ................ 131 B. The Concept of Investor Capitalism ........ 135 C. The New and the Old in Investor Capitalism 136 III. The Motivation of Institutional Investors ....... 139 A. The Players in Investor Capitalism ......... 140 1. Fund managers ....................... 140 2. Fund sponsors ........................ 141 3. Portfolio managers .................... 142 4. Investor services ...................... 143 B. The W all Street Rule ..................... 144 C. The "Collective Good" Dilemma .......... -
Shareholder Capitalism a System in Crisis New Economics Foundation Shareholder Capitalism
SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM A SYSTEM IN CRISIS NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM SUMMARY Our current, highly financialised, form of shareholder capitalism is not Shareholder capitalism just failing to provide new capital for – a system driven by investment, it is actively undermining the ability of listed companies to the interests of reinvest their own profits. The stock shareholder-backed market has become a vehicle for and market-fixated extracting value from companies, not companies – is broken. for injecting it. No wonder that Andy Haldane, Chief Economist of the Bank of England, recently suggested that shareholder capitalism is ‘eating itself.’1 Corporate governance has become dominated by the need to maximise short-term shareholder returns. At the same time, financial markets have grown more complex, highly intermediated, and similarly short- termist, with shares increasingly seen as paper assets to be traded rather than long-term investments in sound businesses. This kind of trading is a zero-sum game with no new wealth, let alone social value, created. For one person to win, another must lose – and increasingly, the only real winners appear to be the army of financial intermediaries who control and perpetuate the merry-go- round. There is nothing natural or inevitable about the shareholder-owned corporation as it currently exists. Like all economic institutions, it is a product of political and economic choices which can and should be remade if they no longer serve our economy, society, or environment. Here’s the impact -
1 Investor Sentiment and the Market Reaction to Dividend News
Investor sentiment and the market reaction to dividend news: European evidence Abstract Purpose: This paper examines the effect of investor sentiment on the market reaction to dividend change announcements. Design/methodology/approach: We use the European Economic Sentiment Indicator data, from Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), as a proxy for investor sentiment and focus on the market reaction to dividend change announcements, using panel data methodology. Findings: Using data from three European markets, our results indicate that the investor sentiment has some influence on the market reaction to dividend change announcements, for two of the three analysed markets. Globally, we find no evidence of investor sentiment influencing the market reaction to dividend change announcements for the Portuguese market. However, we find evidence that the positive share price reaction to dividend increases enlarges with sentiment, in the case of the UK markets, whereas the negative share price reaction to dividend decreases reduces with sentiment, in the French market. Research limitations/implications: We have no access to dividend forecasts, so, our findings are based on naïve dividend changes and not unexpected change dividends. Originality/value: This paper offers some insights on the effect of investor sentiment on the market reaction to firms’ news, a strand of finance that is scarcely developed and contributes to the analysis of European markets that are in need of research. As the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to analyse the effect of investor sentiment on the market reaction to dividend news, in the context of European markets. Key Words: Investor Sentiment, Dividend News, Market Reaction, Behavioural Finance Classification: Research Paper 1 1. -
A Primer on Modern Monetary Theory
2021 A Primer on Modern Monetary Theory Steven Globerman fraserinstitute.org Contents Executive Summary / i 1. Introducing Modern Monetary Theory / 1 2. Implementing MMT / 4 3. Has Canada Adopted MMT? / 10 4. Proposed Economic and Social Justifications for MMT / 17 5. MMT and Inflation / 23 Concluding Comments / 27 References / 29 About the author / 33 Acknowledgments / 33 Publishing information / 34 Supporting the Fraser Institute / 35 Purpose, funding, and independence / 35 About the Fraser Institute / 36 Editorial Advisory Board / 37 fraserinstitute.org fraserinstitute.org Executive Summary Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a policy model for funding govern- ment spending. While MMT is not new, it has recently received wide- spread attention, particularly as government spending has increased dramatically in response to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and concerns grow about how to pay for this increased spending. The essential message of MMT is that there is no financial constraint on government spending as long as a country is a sovereign issuer of cur- rency and does not tie the value of its currency to another currency. Both Canada and the US are examples of countries that are sovereign issuers of currency. In principle, being a sovereign issuer of currency endows the government with the ability to borrow money from the country’s cen- tral bank. The central bank can effectively credit the government’s bank account at the central bank for an unlimited amount of money without either charging the government interest or, indeed, demanding repayment of the government bonds the central bank has acquired. In 2020, the cen- tral banks in both Canada and the US bought a disproportionately large share of government bonds compared to previous years, which has led some observers to argue that the governments of Canada and the United States are practicing MMT. -
Do Sentiment Indicators Improve Dynamic Asset Allocation?
EDHEC RISK AND ASSET MANAGEMENT RESEARCH CENTRE 393-400 promenade des Anglais 06202 Nice Cedex 3 Tel.: +33 (0)4 93 18 32 53 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.edhec-risk.com When to Pick the Losers: Do Sentiment Indicators Improve Dynamic Asset Allocation? October 2006 Devraj Basu EDHEC Business School Chi-Hsiou Hun Durham Business School, University of Durham Roel Oomen Warwick Business School, University of Warwick Alexander Stremme Warwick Business School, University of Warwick Abstract Recent finance research that draws on behavioral psychology suggests that investors systematically make errors in forming expectations about asset returns. These errors are likely to cause significant mis-pricing in the short run, and the subsequent reversion of prices to their fundamental level implies that measures of investor sentiment are likely to be correlated with stock returns. A number of empirical studies using both market and survey data as proxies for investor sentiment have found support for this hypothesis. In this paper we investigate whether investor sentiment (as measured by certain components of the University of Michigan survey) can help improve dynamic asset allocation over and above the improvement achieved based on commonly used business cycle indicators. We find that the addition of sentiment variables to business cycle indicators considerably improves the performance of dynamically managed portfolio strategies, both for a standard market-timer as well as for a momentum investor. For example, sentiment-based dynamic trading strategies, even out-of-sample, would not have incurred any significant losses during the October 1987 crash or the collapse of the dot.com bubble in late 2000. -
Introduction to Financial Services: Capital Markets
Updated January 4, 2021 Introduction to Financial Services: Capital Markets This In Focus provides an overview of U.S. capital markets, stocks and bonds to enable investors to make informed Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulation, decisions on whether to invest and at what price level to and related policy issues. compensate for their risks. Banking regulators, by contrast, focus more on safety and soundness to avoid bank failure. Market Composition This is largely because bank deposits are often ultimately Capital markets are where securities like stocks and bonds guaranteed by the taxpayers, whereas in capital markets, are issued and traded. U.S. capital markets instruments investors generally assume all the risk of loss. include (1) stocks, also called equities or shares, referring to ownership of a firm; (2) bonds, also called fixed income or Public and Private Securities Offerings. The SEC debt securities, referring to the indebtedness or creditorship requires that offers and sales of securities, such as stocks of a firm or a government entity; and (3) shares of and bonds, either be registered with the SEC or undertaken investment funds, which are forms of pooled investment pursuant to a specific exemption. The goal of registration is vehicles that consolidate money from investors. to ensure that investors receive key information on the securities being offered. Registered offerings, often called As a main segment of the financial system, capital markets public offerings, are available to all types of investors. By provide the largest sources of financing for U.S. contrast, securities offerings that are exempt from certain nonfinancial companies.