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Prediction of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Sudanese Nile Region: a Need for International Co-Operation

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Prediction of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Sudanese Nile Region: a Need for International Co-Operation Hydrology for the Water Management of Large Riva- Basins (Proceedings of the Vienna Symposium, August 1991). IAHS Publ. no. 201,1991. PREDICTION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN THE SUDANESE NILE REGION: A NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION K. ANBAH Water Resources Research and Documentation Centre, Italian University for Foreigners, Villa La Colombella, 06080 Colombella (PG), Italy. F. SICCARDI Institute of Hydraulics, University of Genoa, Via Montallegro 1, 16145 Genoa, Italy ABSTRACT Analysis of the 1988 floods in Sudan have shown, that a lead time of at least one month is required for mitigation interventions. The present 5 days lead time for prediction of Nile floods in Khartoum are not adequate for an efficient advance warning.The rainfall over Sudan exhibits frequent positive and negative anomalies. Two approaches are suggested in the present work. The first involves further analysis on the possible spatial coherence and teleconnections of rainfall anomalies over Africa to enhance the lead time based on prediction of extreme events in other regions. The second requires an integrated real time flood forecasting and an effective weather monitoring system covering the countries sharing the Nile Basin. These demand technical cooperation between the countries within the basin. INTRODUCTION Flood Hazards Prediction For the purposes of flood prediction, the Nile basin can be divided into four main environments, namely the Equatorial Lakes, the Ethiopian, the Sudanese and the Egyptian ambient. The Equatorial Lakes and the Aswan reservoir effect long- term regulation on the flows of the White Nile and the Main Nile respectively. The Ethiopian riverine ambient with steep and confined channel does not present serious problems of inundation. On the contrary, as the floods of August 1988 have shown, a lead time of at least one month is required in the Sudanese ambient to give a timely warning for the evacuation of vulnerable population centres and agricultural installations like pumping systems and other temporary installations. However, flood prediction is presently based on the floodwave propagation of the Blue Nile which gives an average travel time of 5-days from Ed Deim at the Ethiopian border to Khartoum (Regulation Rules... .on the Blue Nile, 1968). These figures which presently serve as the basis for prediction of 3 K. Andah & F. Siccardi 4 Nile floods in Sudan are not adequate for an efficient advance warning, especially if the recent hydrometeorlogical events are confronted with the new socio­ economic environment ushered in by the persistent droughts of the past 15 years, characterized by unplanned settlements at the outskirts of cities and towns, especially Khartoum and also by the cultivation of farms in historical flood plains of the Nile valley. These new developments of the country are particularly vulnerable to flash floods of ephemeral natural channels and to Nile floods due to combined pressure of the drought conditions and increasing population migration. From the above, it can be seen that in order to predict, mitigate or manage natural disasters triggered by hydrometeorlogical extremes over a country like Sudan, the largest on the African continent, spanning longitudes 22 °E and 37 °E and latitudes 5°N and 22°N, it would be necessary to understand the mechanisms underlying the various climatic fluxes both in time and space across the country. In this way, it could be possible to increase the lead time from hydrometrical warning to meteorological advance warning through the prediction of causative mechanisms. Anomalies and Trends in Rainfall Patterns Generally, Sudan is characterized by extreme climatic zones; from the tropical south through the semi-arid Centre to the arid north. The distribution of rainfall over Sudan exhibits extreme unevenness both spatially and temporally (Hayward, 1987; Griffiths, 1972). Mean annual rainfall diminishes northwards from the south from values of about 1200 mm to about 100 mm, with coefficient of variation from 30% to 100% respectively (Sendil, 1986). The rainy season over the territory of Sudan also varies from the south to the north. While the rainy season commences from March through November in the south , the period spans from June to September in central Sudan with some scarce rainfall in August at the extreme northern fringes of the country. The general characterization of the variability of the climatic flux over the country has been based on the continental air mass circulation controlled by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), coupled with the strengths of the southwesterly monsoons and the upper easterly air currents and accentuated by local physiographic and orographic conditions (Kraus 1977; Nicholson, 1983; Zahran, 1986; El Sayem, 1986). Based on the movement of the ITCZ, rainfall is expected in the southern parts of Sudan (below ION) around March-April, while the regions up to lat. 20°N receive rain in June through September. Nicholson (1986), however, points out that variations in Sahel rainfall (including most parts of the Sudan) are generally related to changes in the intensity of the rainy season rather than to its onset or length as the ITCZ hypothesis would require. This means that extreme rainfall events cannot be solely predicted through the anoma­ lous excursions of the ITCZ as proposed by Kraus (1977) and which has been used quite extensively for analysis of rainfall variations in tropical Africa (El Sayem ,1986; Zahran, 1986). Surveys on African rainfall carried out by Klaus (1977) and Nicholson (1985, 1986) have indicated a marked coherence of rainfall variations over large portions of the continent, a characteristic found to be especially strong in the semi-arid regions south of the Sahara and hence could be 5 Prediction of hydrometeorological extremes in Sudan extended to characterize rainfall anomalies over Sudan. With this approach, Nicholson (1986) identified various patterns of rainfall anomaly fields that illustrate a strong tendency for synchronous fluctuations along the tropical and temperate margins of the Sahara. From the foregoing analysis, it becomes apparent that investigations into the behavioral patterns of rainfall must be directed toward the climatic and atmospheric mechanisms at small synoptic scales and mesoscales that could trigger this type of anomalies. With the recent high rainfalls in Sudan, which coincided with similar extreme events in the sahelian regions of Nigeria, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and others, it becomes pertinent to address the question of extreme climatic variations from the point of view of spatial coherence of anomalies throughout much of the tropical region (Nicholson, 1986). This approach may lead to the identification of predictors for rainfall anomalies based on extreme events both inside and outside Sudan, especially within the northern hemispheric regions of Africa. Specific Hvdrological Features of the Nile Basin The River Nile system extends over 6000 km and drains an area of about 2.9 106 km2. The river flows from the south (the Equatorial Plateaus or Lakes) and the Ethiopian Plateau (lake Tana) through the central arid regions (Sahara) to the Mediterranean sea in the north. The main course of the river valley, its tribu­ taries and lakes cover a wide range of climatic conditions in nine riparian countries, namely Zaire, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt (Kashef, 1986). In order to have a fair insight into the flood- wave formation of the Nile, especially within Sudan, more attention must be paid to the Blue Nile and the Atbara rivers which together contribute more than 90% of the peak flows in the central arid regions. In fact the White Nile basically contributes about 80-90% of the low flows and around 30% of the annual flow volume. The Blue Nile which takes its source from the Lake Tana in the Ethiopi­ an Plateau produces very strong torrential flows during the rainy season and exceptionally low flows in the dry periods. The ratio of the maximum flows to the minimum can reach a very high value of 20 : 1. The runoff generation is governed by the humid climatic conditions in the Ethiopian Highlands in conjunc­ tion with the sharp topographic characteristics of the upper part of the basin. From Lake Tana to the Roseires dam, about 1000 km downstream, the channel falls steeply with a slope of about 1.3 10"3. Analysis of peak flows at Khartoum indicates that floods in and around Khartoum are generated by the Blue Nile, while at the same time causing high backwater flows into the White Nile. In the period July-August, the ratio of the flows of the Blue Nile to those of the White Nile is of the order of 97:1. It must however be noted that the flow from Roseires to Khartoum is gentler due to channel slopes of 1.2 10"4 with some minor routing effects of the Roseires and Sennar reservoirs. The most important subcatchment of the Main Nile is the Atbara river basin which has hydrological and morphological characteristics similar to the Blue Nile. The river Atbara also emerges from the Northeastern highlands of Ethiopia with an initial steep slope of 5. 10"3, carrying torrential high flows and K. Andah & F. Siccardi 6 large amounts of sediments during the rainy season (Elsheikh, 1988). The Atbara is highly seasonal and most often dries up for a period of 5 months. In exception­ ally wet years, the flows can reach about 370 106 m3.d"', measured through the Kasma Griba dam. It must be noted that the effective base width of the annual hydrograph comprises June-December with the flood season covering only August and September, (Shahin, 1985). The Atbara river is therefore essential only in flood analysis of the Main Nile, more so when its floods are superim­ posed on those from the Blue Nile. After Atbara, there is no other important inflow to the Main Nile (Nile Waters Study Report, 1979; Hassan, 1981).
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