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The Effects of Mobile Apps on Shopper Purchases and Product Returns Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 2017 Report No. 17-100 The Effects of Mobile Apps on Shopper Purchases and Product Returns Unnati Narang and Venkatesh Shankar “The Effects of Mobile Apps on Shopper Purchases and Product Returns” © 2017 Unnati Narang and Venkatesh Shankar; Report Summary © 2017 Marketing Science Institute MSI working papers are distributed for the benefit of MSI corporate and academic members and the general public. Reports are not to be reproduced or published in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without written permission. Report Summary In recent years, the penetration of mobile devices has reached unprecedented levels. In particular, mobile apps are increasingly dominating mobile device use. Despite the widespread use and the potentially significant effects of mobile apps and different app features, their consequences have been underexplored. Not much is known about how app adoption affects the net monetary value of purchases after accounting for product returns. In this research, Unnati Narang and Venkatesh Shankar reveal new insights about the effects of mobile app adoption on shopping behavior across channels. They study a rich set of managerially important outcomes, such as individual purchase incidence and amount and product return incidence and amount. They use a large-scale dataset from an omnichannel retailer of video games, consumer electronics, and wireless services with 30 million shoppers. This unique dataset identifies individual app adoption date and allows the authors to isolate the effects of the app using a difference-in-differences regression. The research reveals that app adopters buy 21% more often but spend 12% less per purchase occasion and return 73% more often than non-adopters after adoption. Overall, app adoption results in a 24% increase in net monetary value of purchases. In monetary terms, the retailer’s net annual revenue increase due to app launch ranges from $550 million to $890 million. An analysis of app features used by the shoppers reveals the key role of offer- and rewards-related features. Surprisingly, the number of unique app features accessed by the shopper has an inverted U- shaped relationship with shopping outcomes, suggesting managerial caution against “all-in-one” app designs. Managerial implications Their study offers five key managerial implications. First, the estimates provide a useful benchmark for managers to evaluate any app introduction decision. Second, their finding that purchase frequency is higher but monetary value per occasion is lower for app adopters suggests that managers should plan for shoppers visiting the physical and online stores more often and spending less on each occasion. These findings imply that the key task of sales associates is to encourage shoppers to visit again. Third, the finding that app adoption leads to greater product returns exposes managers to a darker side of apps. Managers need to proactively monitor return incidence from app adopters and devise interventions to keep product returns in check. Fourth, the findings on app feature usage suggest that managers need to ensure that interactive features such as redeeming reward points and activating offers are easily accessible. Finally, the authors caution managers against an all- in-one app design and in favor of a more thoughtful combination of app features to avoid information overload. Managers should adapt their mobile app design strategies to their context, including the product category. Unnati Narang is a Ph.D. student in Marketing and Venkatesh Shankar is Professor of Marketing and Coleman Chair in Marketing and Director of Research, Center for Retailing Studies, at the Mays Business School, Texas A&M University. Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 1 Acknowledgments The authors thank participants at the 2016 Theory and Practice in Marketing (TPM) Conference and the 2016 Professors’ Institute meeting of Marketing EDGE for valuable comments. Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 2 1. Introduction In recent years, the penetration of mobile devices has reached unprecedented levels. By January 2016, 79.1% of the United States’ (U.S.) population or 198.5 million people owned a smartphone (comScore 2016a). By the end of 2016, over two billion people worldwide will be smartphone users (eMarketer 2014) and by 2020, more than 70% of the world population will own a smartphone (Ericsson Mobility Report 2016). Mobile devices play a unique role in influencing shoppers along and beyond their paths to purchase. Mobile devices are interactive, engaging, portable, wireless, location-specific, and personable. As a result, they are uniquely positioned to influence shoppers at various stages of the shopping process – need recognition, information search, alternative evaluation, purchase, and post purchase (Shankar and Balasubramanian 2009). Little wonder, mobile marketing is becoming a strategic priority for firms. U.S. firms spent over $28 billion on mobile advertising in 2015 and are projected to double this level by 2018 (eMarketer 2016). Chief Marketing Officers (CMOs) of leading firms already allocate up to 20% of their budget to mobile (Forrester 2016). Terry Lundgren, Macy’s CEO, views mobile to be the starting point for shopping when he says, “shoppers are starting the journey with their phone, doing their research. Then they might buy in the store or they’ll buy at Macys.com or Bloomingdales.com” (Peterson 2015). Mobile devices have changed the way people shop, giving rise to an emerging area of mobile shopper marketing and revolutionizing retail (Shankar et al. 2016). More than 80% of U.S. shoppers use a mobile device to shop even within a store (Google M/A/R/C Study 2013). Nearly 70% of Amazon’s customers used mobile to shop in the 2015 holiday season (Eadicicco 2015). Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 3 Mobile apps are increasingly dominating mobile device use. Mobile apps account for 87% of mobile usage, which constitutes the bulk of digital media time (comScore 2016b). By 2015, there were over 250 billion app downloads from the App Store and Google Play (Sims 2015). About 20% of all Starbucks transactions originated from its “order and pay” app (Forbes 2015). Do mobile apps influence shopper behavior? Mobile apps offer informational (e.g., product and store information) and experiential (e.g., offer, loyalty program reward redemption) benefits. These benefits may lead shoppers to purchase more often and spend more money. However, while a mobile app can induce purchases through the app or mobile web, does it increase overall purchases across all the channels, including brick-and-mortar and online? Furthermore, a mobile app can prompt a shopper to act and make a purchase, but such an action can also result in post- purchase regret, leading to higher product returns. Therefore, the net effect of mobile apps on the monetary value of purchases is unclear. Furthermore, app features such as product search, store check-in, loyalty program, and promotional offer, may have specific effects on shopper purchases and returns and help explain the effects of a mobile app on shopping outcomes. The use of a greater number of app features may lead to more purchases and even product returns. Despite the widespread use and the potentially significant effects of mobile apps and their features, the consequences of mobile apps and the effects of app features have been underexplored. A few studies (e.g., Kim et al. 2015; Gill et al. 2016) have considered the effects of mobile apps on loyalty points accrued, purchase intent, website visits, or aggregate purchase amounts. We extend prior research by isolating the effects of mobile app adoption on a richer, managerially important set of outcomes, such as individual purchase incidence and amount and Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 4 return incidence and amount. Importantly, we explain these effects through app feature-related mechanisms. Specifically, we address three research questions: Does mobile app adoption lead to higher or lower incidence and monetary value of purchases and returns? What are the sizes of differences in purchases and returns between app adopters and non- adopters? What are the effects of the number and type of app features on shopping outcomes and how do they help explain the overall effects of a mobile app on shopping outcomes? We address our research questions using a unique dataset from a large omnichannel retailer of video games, consumer electronics and wireless services. Teasing out the effects of mobile apps on purchase outcomes is complex. A major challenge is endogeneity and self-selection potentially confounding the effects of variables affecting both app adoption and shopping outcomes. We tackle this challenge in two ways by: (a) adopting a combination of difference-in- differences method with propensity score matching and Heckman selection correction, and (b) carrying out a series of robustness tests to rule out alternative explanations. Our results show that app adopters buy 21% more often but spend 12% less per purchase occasion and return 73% more often than non-adopters in the month after adoption. Overall, app adoption results in a 24% increase in net monetary value of purchases. Surprisingly, the number of unique app features accessed by the shopper has an inverted U-shaped relationship with shopping outcomes, suggesting managerial caution against “all-in-one” app designs. Our research contributes to the mobile
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