Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1840 Editors: J.--M.Morel, Cachan F. Takens, Groningen B. Teissier, Paris 3 Berlin Heidelberg New York Hong Kong London Milan Paris Tokyo Boris Tsirelson Wendelin Werner
Lectures on Probability Theory and Statistics Ecole d’EtedeProbabilit´ es´ de Saint-Flour XXXII - 2002
Editor: Jean Picard
13 Authors Editor
Boris Tsirelson Jean Picard School of Mathematics Laboratoire de Mathematiques´ Appliquees´ TelAvivUniversity UMR CNRS 6620 Tel Av iv 69978 Universite´ Blaise Pascal Clermont-Ferrand Israel 63177 Aubiere` Cedex, France e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Wendelin Werner Laboratoire de Mathematiques´ Universite´ Paris-Sud Batˆ 425, 91405 Orsay Cedex France e-mail: [email protected]
Cover picture: Blaise Pascal (1623-1662)
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Mathematics Subject Classification (2001): 60-01, 60Gxx, 60J65, 60K35, 82B20, 82b27, 82B41
ISSN 0075-8434 Lecture Notes in Mathematics ISSN 0721-5363 Ecole d’Ete´ des Probabilites´ de St. Flour ISBN 3-540-21316-3 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York
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Typesetting: Camera-ready TEXoutputbytheauthors SPIN: 10994733 41/3142/du - 543210 - Printed on acid-free paper Preface
Three series of lectures were given at the 32nd Probability Summer School in Saint-Flour (July 7–24, 2002), by Professors Pitman, Tsirelson and Werner. In order to keep the size of the volume not too large, we have decided to split the publication of these courses into two parts. This volume contains the courses of Professors Tsirelson and Werner. The course of Professor Pitman, entitled “Combinatorial stochastic processes”, is not yet ready. We thank the authors warmly for their important contribution.
76 participants have attended this school. 33 of them have given a short lecture. The lists of participants and of short lectures are enclosed at the end of the volume.
Finally, we give the numbers of volumes of Springer Lecture Notes where previous schools were published.
Lecture Notes in Mathematics
1971: vol 307 1973: vol 390 1974: vol 480 1975: vol 539 1976: vol 598 1977: vol 678 1978: vol 774 1979: vol 876 1980: vol 929 1981: vol 976 1982: vol 1097 1983: vol 1117 1984: vol 1180 1985/86/87: vol 1362 1988: vol 1427 1989: vol 1464 1990: vol 1527 1991: vol 1541 1992: vol 1581 1993: vol 1608 1994: vol 1648 1995: vol 1690 1996: vol 1665 1997: vol 1717 1998: vol 1738 1999: vol 1781 2000: vol 1816 2001: vol 1837
Lecture Notes in Statistics 1986: vol 50 2001: vol 179
Contents
Part I Boris Tsirelson: Scaling Limit, Noise, Stability
Introduction...... 5 1 AFirstLook ...... 6 2 AbstractNonsenseoftheScalingLimit ...... 17 3 ScalingLimitandIndependence...... 28 4 Example:TheNoiseMadebyaPoissonSnake...... 44 5 Stability ...... 56 6 GeneralizingWienerChaos...... 67 7 Example:TheBrownianWebasaBlackNoise...... 83 8 Miscellany...... 93 References...... 103 Index...... 105
Part II Wendelin Werner: Random Planar Curves and Schramm- Loewner Evolutions
1 Introduction...... 113 2 LoewnerChains...... 124 3 ChordalSLE...... 130 4 ChordalSLEandRestriction ...... 137 5 SLEandtheBrownianFrontier...... 143 6 RadialSLE...... 151 7 SomeCriticalExponentsforSLE...... 156 8 BrownianExponents...... 161 9 SLE,USTandLERW...... 169 10 SLEandCriticalPercolation...... 176 11 WhatIsMissing ...... 185 References...... 190
List of Participants ...... 197
List of Short Lectures ...... 199 Part I
Boris Tsirelson: Scaling Limit, Noise, Stability
B. Tsirelson and W. Werner: LNM 1840, J. Picard (Ed.), pp. 1–106, 2004. c Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2004
Scaling Limit, Noise, Stability
Boris Tsirelson
School of Mathematics, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel [email protected] //www.tau.ac.il/~tsirel/
Summary. Linear functions of many independent random variables lead to classical noises (white, Poisson, and their combinations) in the scaling limit. Some singular stochastic flows and some models of oriented percolation involve very nonlinear functions and lead to nonclassical noises. Two examples are examined, Warren’s ‘noise made by a Poisson snake’ and the author’s ‘Brownian web as a black noise’. Classical noises are stable, nonclassical are not. A new framework for the scaling limit is proposed. Old and new results are presented about noises, stability, and spectral measures.
1AFirstLook...... 6 1.1 TwoToyModels...... 6 1.2 OurLimitingProcedures...... 8 1.3 ExamplesofHighSymmetry...... 11 1.4 ExampleofLowSymmetry...... 12 1.5 Trees,NotCubes...... 14 1.6 Sub-σ-fields...... 15 2 Abstract Nonsense of the Scaling Limit ...... 17 2.1 MoreonOurLimitingProcedures...... 17 2.2 Coarse Probability Space: Definition and Simple Example ...... 20 2.3 GoodUseofJointCompactification ...... 22 3 Scaling Limit and Independence ...... 28 3.1 Product of Coarse Probability Spaces ...... 28 3.2 DyadicCase...... 30 3.3 ScalingLimitofFourier-WalshCoefficients ...... 34 3.4 TheLimitingObject...... 37 3.5 TimeShift;Noise...... 41 4 Boris Tsirelson
4 Example: The Noise Made by a Poisson Snake ...... 44 4.1 ThreeDiscreteSemigroups:AlgebraicDefinition...... 44 4.2 TheThreeDiscreteSemigroups:Representation...... 45 4.3 Random Walks and Stochastic Flows in Discrete Semigroups ...... 45 4.4 ThreeContinuousSemigroups...... 48 4.5 Convolution Semigroups in These Continuous Semigroups ...... 49 4.6 GettingDyadic ...... 50 4.7 ScalingLimit...... 51 4.8 Noises ...... 52 4.9 ThePoissonSnake ...... 53 5 Stability ...... 56 5.1 DiscreteCase...... 56 5.2 ContinuousCase...... 59 5.3 Back to Discrete: Two Kinds of Stability ...... 65 6 Generalizing Wiener Chaos ...... 67 6.1 First Chaos, Decomposable Processes, Stability ...... 67 6.2 HigherLevelsofChaos...... 70 6.3 AnOldQuestionofJacobFeldman...... 75 6.4 BlackNoise...... 78 7 Example: The Brownian Web as a Black Noise ...... 83 7.1 ConvolutionSemigroupoftheBrownianWeb...... 83 7.2 SomeGeneralArguments...... 84 7.3 TheKeyArgument...... 85 7.4 Remarks...... 89 7.5 ACombinatorialBy-product...... 90 8 Miscellany ...... 93 8.1 BeyondtheOne-DimensionalTime...... 93 8.2 The‘WaveNoise’Approach ...... 94 8.3 Groups,Semigroups,Kernels...... 96 8.4 AbstractNonsenseofLeJan-Raimond’sTheory...... 98 References ...... 103 Index ...... 105 Scaling Limit, Noise, Stability 5 Introduction
Functions of n independent random variables and limiting procedures for n → ∞ are a tenor of probability theory. Classical limit√ theorems investigate linear functions, such as f(ξ1,...,ξn)= (ξ1 + ···+ ξn)/ n. The well-known limiting procedure (a classical example of scaling limit) leads to the Brownian motion. Its derivative, the white noise, is not a continuum of independent random variables, but rather an infinitely di- visible ‘reservoir of independence’, a classical example of a continuous product of probability spaces. Percolation theory investigates some very special nonlinear functions of independent two-valued random variables, either in the limit of an infinite discrete lattice, or in the scaling limit. The latter is now making spectacular progress. The corresponding ‘reservoir of independence’ is already constructed for oriented percolation (which is much simpler). That is a modern, nonclas- sical example of a continuous product of probability spaces. An essential distinction between classical and nonclassical continuous products of probability spaces is revealed by the concept of stability/sensitiv- ity, framed for the discrete case by computer scientists and (in parallel) for the continuous case by probabilists. Everything is stable if and only if the setup is classical. Some readers prefer discrete models, and treat continuous models as a mean of describing asymptotic behavior. Such readers may skip Sects. 6.2, 6.3, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4. Other readers are interested only in continuous models. They may restrict themselves to Sects. 3.4, 3.5, 4.9, 5.2, 6, 7, 8. Scaling limit. A new framework for the scaling limit is proposed in Sects. 1.2, 2, 3.1–3.3. Noise. The idea of a continuous product of probability spaces is formalized by the notions of ‘continuous factorization’ (Sect. 3.4) and ‘noise’ (Sect. 3.5). (Some other types of continuous product are considered in [18], [19].) For two nonclassical examples of noise see Sects. 4, 7. Stability. Stability (and sensitivity) is studied in Sects. 5, 6.1, 6.4. For an interplay between discrete and continuous forms of stability/sensitivity, see especially Sects. 5.3, 6.4. The spectral theory of noises, presented in Sects. 3.3, 3.4 and used in Sects. Zn 5, 6, generalizes both the Fourier transform on the discrete group 2 (the Fourier-Walsh transform) and the Itˆo decomposition into multiple stochastic integrals. For the scaling limit of spectral measures, see Sect. 3.3. Throughout, either by assumption or by construction, all probability spaces will be Lebesgue-Rokhlin spaces; that is, isomorphic mod 0 to an inter- val with Lebesgue measure, or a discrete (finite or countable) measure space, or a combination of both. 6 Boris Tsirelson 1AFirstLook
1.1 Two Toy Models
The most interesting thing is a scaling limit as a transition from a lattice model to a continuous model. A transition from a finite sequence to an infinite sequence is much simpler, but still nontrivial, as we’ll see on simple toy models. Classical theorems about independent increments are exhaustive, but a small twist may surprise us. I demonstrate the twist on two models, ‘discrete’ and ‘continuous’. The ‘continuous’ model is a Brownian motion on the circle. The ‘discrete’ model takes on two values ±1 only, and increments are treated multiplicatively: X(t)/X(s) instead of the usual X(t)−X(s). Or equivalently, the ‘discrete’ process takes on its values in the two-element group Z2;using additive notation we have Z2 = {0, 1}, 1+1 = 0, increments being X(t)−X(s). In any case, the twist stipulates values in a compact group (the circle, Z2, etc.), in contrast to the classical theory, where values are in R (or another linear space). Also, the classical theory assumes continuity (in probability), while our twist does not. The ‘continuous’ process (in spite of its name) is discontinuous at a single instant t = 0. The ‘discrete’ process is discontinuous 1 1 1 at t = n , n =1, 2,..., and also at t = 0; it is constant on [ n+1 , n ) for every n.
Example 1.1. Introduce an infinite sequence of random signs τ1,τ2,...;that is, 1 P τ = −1 = P τ =+1 = for each k, k k 2 τ1,τ2,... are independent.
For each n we define a stochastic process Xn(·), driven by τ1,...,τn, as follows: