On the Holocene Evolution of the Ayeyawady Megadelta 2 3 Authors: 4 5 Liviu Giosan1, Thet Naing2, Myo Min Tun3, Peter D

1 On the Holocene Evolution of the Ayeyawady Megadelta 2 3 Authors: 4 5 Liviu Giosan1, Thet Naing2, Myo Min Tun3, Peter D. Clift4, Florin Filip5, 6 Stefan Constantinescu6, Nitesh Khonde1,7, Jerzy Blusztajn1, Jan-Pieter Buylaert8, 7 Thomas Stevens9, Swe Thwin10 8 9 Affiliations: 10 11 1Geology & Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic, Woods Hole, USA 12 2Pathein University, Pathein, Myanmar 13 3University of Mandalay, Mandalay, Myanmar 14 4Geology & Geophysics, Louisiana State University, USA 15 5The Institute for Fluvial and Marine Systems, Bucharest, Romania 16 6Geography Department, Bucharest University, Bucharest, Romania 17 7Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, Lucknow, India 18 8Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark 19 9Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden 20 10Mawlamyine University, Mawlamyine, Myanmar 21 22 23 24 25 26 Correspondence to: L. Giosan ([email protected]) 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 *submitted to Earth Surface Dynamics 37 1 38 Abstract: 39 40 The Ayeyawady delta is the last Asian megadelta whose evolution has remained 41 essentially unexplored so far. Unlike most other deltas across the world, the Ayeyawady 42 has not yet been affected by dam construction providing a unique view on largely natural 43 deltaic processes benefiting from abundant sediment loads affected by tectonics and 44 monsoon hydroclimate. To alleviate the information gap and provide a baseline for future 45 work, here we provide a first model for the Holocene development of this megadelta 46 based on radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence-dated trench and drill core 47 sediments collected in 2016 and 2017, together with a re-evaluation of published maps, 48 charts and scientific literature. Altogether, this data indicates that Ayeyawady is a mud- 49 dominated delta with tidal and wave influences. The sediment-rich Ayeyawady River 50 built meander belt alluvial ridges with avulsive characters. A more advanced coast in the 51 western half of delta (i.e., the Pathein lobe) was probably favored by the more western 52 location of the early course of the river. Radiogenic isotopic fingerprinting of the 53 sediment suggest that the Pathein lobe coast does not receive significant sediment from 54 neighboring rivers. However, the eastern region of the delta (i.e., Yangon lobe) is offset 55 inland and extends east into the mudflats of the Sittaung estuary. Wave-built beach ridge 56 construction during the late Holocene, similar to other several deltas across the Indian 57 monsoon domain, suggests a common climatic control on monsoonal delta 58 morphodynamics through variability in discharge, changes in wave climate, or both. 59 Correlation of the delta morphological and stratigraphic architecture information onland 60 with the shelf bathymetry, as well as its tectonic, sedimentary and hydrodynamic 61 characteristics provide insight on the peculiar growth style of the Ayeyawady delta. The 62 offset between the western Pathein lobe and the eastern deltaic coast appears to be driven 63 by tectonic-hydrodynamic feedbacks as the extensionally lowered shelf block of the Gulf 64 of Mottama amplifies tidal currents relative to the western part of the shelf. This situation 65 probably activates a perennial shear front between the two regions that acts as a leaky 66 energy fence. Just as importantly, the strong currents in the Gulf of Mottama act as an 67 offshore-directed tidal pump that help build the deep mid-shelf Mottama clinoform with 68 mixed sediments from Ayeyawady, Sittaung, and Thanlwin rivers. The highly energetic 69 tidal, wind and wave regime of the northern Andaman Sea thus exports most sediment 70 offshore despite the large load of the Ayeyawady river. 71 2 72 Introduction 73 74 Asian megadeltas (Woodroffe et al., 2006) have a long history of human habitation and 75 anthropogenic impact. With large populations, which increasingly congregate in 76 sprawling megacities, these vast low-lying and ecologically-rich regions are under threat 77 from environmental degradation, climate change and sea level rise. The Ayeyawady 78 (formerly known as Irrawaddy or Ayeyarwady) is the least studied of these megadeltas 79 despite its scientific, social and economic importance (Hedley et al., 2010). Located in 80 the larger India-Asia collision zone, the Ayeyawady delta (Fig. 1) bears the imprint of 81 uniquely complex tectonic processes in a region of oblique subduction (Morley et al., 82 2017) and is a repository for unusually large sediment yields under an erosion-prone 83 monsoon climate (e.g., Giosan et al., 2017). Sediment redistribution within the delta and 84 on the shelf fronting it is affected by strong tides amplified by the geomorphology of the 85 region (Ramasawamy and Rao, 2014). In contrast to other Asian megadeltas, the 86 Ayeyawady river basin is arguably less transformed by post-World War II anthropogenic 87 impacts, although humans have probably affected delta development since at least the 88 Iron Age as agriculture expanded along the river (Moore, 2007) and later intensified 89 during the Pyu (~200 BC to 1050 AD), Bagan (~850 to 1300 AD), and Ava (~1350 to 90 1550 AD) periods. Recent rapid development trends and population growth underline the 91 need to understand the history and document the current state of the Ayeyawady delta. 92 93 Although the Ayeyawady River is less regulated compared to other large rivers, plans are 94 afoot to construct several dams across it and this may change the water and sediment 95 regimes, as well as fluxes reaching its low-lying delta plain (Brakenridge et al., 2017). 96 Inundation of the Ayeyawady delta region during cyclone Nargis in 2008 was one of the 97 costliest and deadliest natural disasters ever recorded (Fritz et al., 2009; Seekins, 2009). 98 Catastrophic monsoon-driven river floods are also common and devastating (Brakenridge 99 et al., 2017). The Ayeyawady delta may already be sediment deficient (Hedley et al., 100 2010) and the anticipated sediment deficit after damming could increase its vulnerability 101 to such transient events as well as to long term sea level rise (Giosan et al., 2014). Strong 102 tidal currents in the northern Andaman Sea (Rizal et al., 2012) amplify some aspects of 103 delta vulnerability, such as salinization (Taft and Evers, 2016) whereas other aspects may 104 be attenuated such as sediment redistribution along the coast or sediment trapping within 105 the subaerial delta (e.g., Hoitink et al., 2017). Better knowledge on how the delta has 106 formed and functioned will help future efforts to maintain its viability. 107 108 To alleviate the information gap and provide a baseline for future work we sketch here a 109 first model for the Holocene evolution of the Ayeyawady delta based on new field data 110 collected in two expeditions in 2016 and 2017 (Figs. 2 and 3; see Fig. S1 for site 111 locations and names) together with a re-evaluation of published maps, charts and 112 scientific literature (Figs. 4 and 5). In the process we reassess our knowledge concerning 3 113 monsoonal deltas in general by advancing new ideas on how morphodynamics and 114 sedimentary architecture can be controlled by feedbacks between tectonics and tides, as 115 well as by the balance between fluvial discharge and wave climate. 116 117 Background 118 119 The Ayeyawady River is a major fluvial system that became individualized in 120 Oligocene/Early Miocene time (Fig. 1; Licht et al., 2016; Morley, 2017 and references 121 therein). The Late Cretaceous subduction of the Neotethys Ocean followed by the 122 collision between India and Asia first led to an Andean-type margin comprised of the 123 Wuntho-Popa Volcanic Arc and associated forearc and backarc basins (e.g., Racey and 124 Ridd, 2015; Liu et al., 2016). The uplift of the Indo-Burman Ranges accretionary prism 125 since early Paleogene completed the separation of the Central Myanmar Basin (CMB) 126 from the Bay of Bengal. The complex of basins forming the CMB were further 127 segmented by compression and inversion (e.g., Bender, 1983). These basins include the 128 Ayeyawady Valley separated by the Bago Yoma (Pegu Yoma) from the Sittaung 129 (Sittang) Valley flowing along the Shan Plateau. The Ayeyawady River infilled this ~900 130 km long shallow marine area toward the Andaman Sea, a Cenozoic backarc/strike-slip 131 basin induced by oblique subduction of the Indian plate under Eurasia (e.g., Curray, 132 2005). A southern shift in Ayeyawady deposition was evident in the Miocene after the 133 major strike-slip fault, the Sagaing, activated along Bago Yoma. The Holocene delta is 134 the last realization in a series of deltas comprising this southward-moving Ayeyawady 135 depocenter. 136 137 Myanmar’s hydroclimate that is responsible for Ayeyawady flow is spatially complex 138 owing to its varied topography and compound influences from both the Indian and East 139 Asian monsoon systems (Brakenridge et al., 2017). Orographic precipitation occurs 140 along the northeastern Himalayas and Indo-Burman Ranges (Xie et al., 2006), as well as 141 the Shan Plateau feeding the upper Ayeyawady and the Chindwin, whereas Central 142 Myanmar, in the lee of these ranges, remains drier. The upper basin of the Ayeyawady 143 also receives snow and glacier meltwater in the spring. Over 90% of the discharge at the 144 delta occurs between May and October with small but significant interannual variability 145 (Furuichi et al., 2009) linked to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, 146 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (D’Arigo and Ummenhofer, 2014 and references therein). 147 148 In historical times the Ayeyawady River has transported ~422 ± 41 × 109 m3 of 149 freshwater every year to the ocean (Robinson et al, 2007), watering Myanmar from north 150 to south along the way (Fig. 1). The water discharge has now apparently decreased to the 151 present level of 379 ± 47 × 109 m3/year (Furuichi et al., 2009).

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