A Monthly Newsletter on Food Security and Vulnerability in

Number 01/2001 15 January, 2001

Summary

Relative calm in December enabled most people to return to their homes in Kabarole and Kasese Districts (western Uganda) following their displacement in late November after attacks by rebels of Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Households are able to access their fields to harvest second-season crops, therefore maintaining food security in these districts. Since the beginning of the year, no significant rebel activities have occurred in Bundibugyo, Kabarole, and Kasese Districts, where near-normal security conditions were reported. UN agencies and other humanitarian organizations are actively involved these districts.

An estimated 452,000 people have been displaced in Gulu and Kitgum Districts (northern Uganda) over the past decade due to attacks by the Lord’s Resistance Army. These people live in or close to internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps in the two Districts. Approximately 82 percent of the IDPs are camped in while 18 percent are in Kitgum. The IDPs are able to return to their homes when rebel activities periodically subside.

Average to above-average harvests for the second season (August to December) in most parts of Uganda improved household access to food as well as enhanced their food stocks, which are reportedly adequate generally. Except for the areas experiencing civil insecurity, where populations have been plagued by inadequate access to food, and drought-affected parts of , FEWS NET does not expect significant food shortages until the main season harvest in June/July 2001. Adequate soil moisture sustains vegetation, and ground water conditions are satisfactory in the southwestern cattle-rearing areas in Mbarara, Ntungamo, and Rakai Districts as well as in , where many farmers practice dairy farming. Livestock enjoy sufficient access to pastures. However, normal dry conditions in Moroto and Districts, northeastern Uganda, have reduced availability of pastures and water there, according to the Karamoja Project Implementation Unit.

With most of the second-season crops harvested and dried, commercial traders report that supplies of cereals and beans to major markets in Uganda have improved. Increasing supplies of dry maize grain led to price declines in all markets during December, as expected. FEWS NET anticipates further reductions in dry maize prices. Bean prices have also fallen, though trends vary by market. Lower prices help to improve access to food for households that depend on the market. A general rise in the price of bananas (matooke) was observed during December, where a 100-kg bag cost approximately UShs 2,200 more in many markets than during November. Bananas are a major staple crop in many , except the north, and the main food eaten during festive periods. Higher prices during December reflect increased demand during the December festive period. Provided that supplies remain normal, FEWS NET expects prices to return to their previous levels.

In May 2000, Oxfam Great Britain (GB) in Uganda carried out a nutrition and food security assessment of Kotido District that concluded there was no basis for emergency intervention because the prevalence of malnutrition was found to be normal to borderline during the “hunger gap.” A repeat survey planned for August/September 2000 had to be postponed. Oxfam GB, A USAID Project Managed by Chemonics International, Inc. ¨ P.O. Box 7856, , Uganda Telephone 256-41-231140 ¨ Fax: 256-41-231139 ¨ Email: [email protected] A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 01/2001 2 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 January 2001 with the Lutheran World Federation (LWF) as lead organization in , government departments, NGOs, and community-based organizations (CBOs), is conducting a geographically expanded assessment covering Kotido District and Moroto District. The objectives of the assessment, which runs from January 8-20, are to: 1) establish a nutritional surveillance system in Kotido and Moroto Districts; 2) establish a simple monitoring mechanism to cover nutrition and food security indicators that may be used for early warning; and 3) enable Oxfam and LWF to make recommendations regarding food and nutrition security in the two districts. A draft report is expected shortly after the assessment is completed.

1. Review of Diminishing and Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises

1.1. Diminishing Food Security Crises

Relative calm in Kabarole and Kasese Districts since December 2000 has allowed people formerly displaced by ADF rebels in November to return home. Although civil insecurity remains a possibility, many households are able to access food from their gardens and other sources. Humanitarian organizations, in conjunction with the Government of Uganda (GoU), continue implementing emergency programs to provide food and non-food assistance to the displaced in Bundibugyo, Kabarole, and Kasese Districts in western Uganda.

In December, the Ugandan military restored relative calm to Kabarole and Kasese Districts of western Uganda, where ADF rebels had launched attacks in late November. As a result, many people who had been displaced by the attacks were able to return to their homes. Subsequently, households were able to gain access to their fields to begin harvesting second-season crops in December, removing a major concern in view of the prevailing uncertain civil security conditions. This has helped maintain household food security in the districts. Since the beginning of the year, no significant rebel activities have been experienced in Bundibugyo, Kabarole and Kasese Districts, where near-normal security conditions are reported.

UN agencies and other humanitarian organizations, such as the World Food Program (WFP), UNICEF, FAO, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Médecins Sans Frontières - France, Catholic Relief Services, ActionAid, and OXFAM are actively involved in Bundibugyo, Kabarole, and Kasese Districts. The WFP provides food aid assistance to an estimated 120,000 displaced persons in Bundibugyo Districts, while the other organizations provide a mix of humanitarian assistance, including water and sanitation, health, as well as agriculture- related services.

1.2. Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises

Uncertainty over civil security along with displacement of populations in Gulu, Kitgum, Bundibugyo, and parts of Kasese and Kabarole Districts continue to constrain household access to food. Through their emergency programs, UN agencies and other humanitarian organizations provide a major proportion of the displaced and refugee households’ food and nonfood requirements. WFP’s food aid programs benefit an estimated 1.1 million IDPs, refugees, and drought-affected people in Uganda.

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For more than a decade, the Gulu and Kitgum Districts of northern Uganda have experienced persistent civil insecurity perpetrated by rebels of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), who have sometimes been active in neighboring districts such as Adjumani, Apac, Lira and Moyo. The LRA has attacked communities, leading to displacement of households and extensive loss of life and property. Consequently, an estimated 452,000 people have been displaced over the period and live in, or close to, internally displaced Figure 1: Ongoing World Food Program Food Aid Activities persons (IDPs) camps in Gulu and Kitgum Districts. An estimated MOYO 370,000 IDPs KOTIDO ARUA KITGUM (approximately 82 ADJUMANI percent of the district GULU population) are located NEBBI MOROTO in Gulu District while LIRA APAC KATAKWI 82,000 IDPs are in MASINDI SOROTI NAKASONGOLA HOIMA KUMI (representing KAPCHORWA KAMULI PALLISA MBALE

KIBOGA MUKONO approximately 16 BUNDIBUGYO KIBALE LUWERO IGANGA TORORO percent of the district’s BUGIRI JINJA KABAROLE MUBENDE BUSIA projected mid-2000 KAMPALA KASESE population). The IDPs MPIGI Civil Insecurity, Displacement: SEMBABULE General food distribution, Food for Work sometimes return to MASAKA BUSHENYI MBARARA KALANGALA Drought affected: school feeding their homes when rebel Some general food distribution RAKAI Food for Work activities periodically RUKUNGIRI subside. NTUNGAMO Refugees KISORO KABALE The WFP is the major FEWS NET Uganda, January 2001 food aid provider to Source: WFP, NGOs IDPs, Sudanese, Rwandese, and Congolese refugees in Uganda. The agency is also involved in food aid assistance to drought-affected people in Kotido and Moroto Districts in the Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda. All told, the WFP helps about 1.1 million IDPs, refugees, and drought- affected people. The agency is also involved in development programs, as well as relief programs. Figure 1 shows activity areas for the WFP. Table 1 is a summary update of the UN agency’s programs in Uganda. A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 01/2001 4 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 January 2001

Table 1: Update of WFP/Uganda Country Programs

Project Type of Duration Beneficiarie Status of Contributions Number Program s Protracted Relief Refugees in 1 August 1999 21,281 Fair level of donations received and Recovery Kabarole, Hoima to 31 July 2001 except for cereals that run out in Program 6077.00 Districts March 2001. Require pledges of at least 1,000 MT of cereals to complete program. Protracted Relief IDPs in Kitgum, 1 April 2000 to 781,738 Only 32,228 MT (39%) out of and Recovery Gulu, Bundibugyo 31 March 2002 82,728 MT has been pledged. Program 6176.00 Districts; Refugees More donations are required. in Arua, Adjumani, Moyo, Kitgum, Masindi Districts. Country Program Agricultural 5 years, to be 10,000 Still in planning, not yet 6100.00 Marketing determined. approved. Country Program Education Adult 1 September 80,887 Activity approved June 2000. 6101.00 Literacy 2000 to 31 Has received 80% pledges in December country for 1st year (September 2004 2000 to August 2001). More pledges required. Country Program Vocational Training 1 January 6,187 Requires 373 MT per year. To 6102.00 for Orphans 2000 to 31 date received 705.5 MT (81% December cereals) to cover 2000 and part 2004 of 2001. Pledges urgently required for pulses, oil due to run out April 2001. Emergency Assistance to Initial period 1 About 190,000, Only 2,100 MT (17%) has been Operation (EMOP) Drought-Affected in April to 30 mainly in pledged out of 12,222 MT 6235.00 Karamoja September eastern Kotido required for the extension. 2000. and Moroto Extended Districts. October 2000

2. Food Security Conditions and Prospects 2.1. Current Food Security Status

Government officials and others around the country report that second-season crops are boosting household access to food, helping to maintain satisfactory food security.

Crop harvests from the second season in districts across the country are increasing food availability and continued household access to food, therefore maintaining their food security. No significant food security problems are reported, except in areas experiencing civil insecurity.

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2.2. Food Security Outlook for the Next Six Months

Favorable second-season growing conditions in most districts of Uganda permitted farmers to achieve average to above-average harvests. Except for isolated areas of eastern Uganda, normal food availability is predicted until the main-season harvest in June/July 2001.

Average to above-average harvests for the second season in most parts of Uganda improved household access to food and helped rebuild their food stocks, which are reportedly adequate generally. Except for the areas experiencing civil insecurity, where populations have been plagued by inadequate access to food, and drought-affected parts of eastern districts, FEWS NET does not expect significant food shortages until the main-season harvest in June/July 2001.

In a December 2000 report, Concern Worldwide, an international NGO working in Katakwi District, eastern Uganda, indicates that households in the district have limited food stocks and are likely to experience shortages starting in February 2001. The NGO attributes this to a late start to the first season of 2000 (March – June/July) that experienced poorly distributed rainfall, leading to late planting, poor germination, low yields, and low crop production. Further, household displacement due to civil insecurity following attacks by Karimojong warriors on communities in the district during the first quarter of 2000 reduced household access to land, resulting in low cultivation and crop production. Poorly distributed rainfall in the second season did not help improve conditions.

Concern Worldwide recommends that starting February 2001, food aid should be provided, to households in subcounties of Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties, located on the border with Moroto District, that suffered the most and where some households continue to be displaced. By providing agricultural inputs such as improved and drought-tolerant seed varieties, cassava stems, and tools that were lost during the attacks, households will be able to regain their productive capacity. The NGO also points to the need to improve water, health, and sanitation services for people living in settlements. Concern Worldwide emphasizes that adequate security is a prerequisite for the successful implementation of its recommendations.

3. National Trends: Hazard Information

During December, districts in eastern Lake Victoria Basin and the western and southwestern districts of Uganda enjoyed predominantly above-normal rainfall, making up for a delay in the start to the second season in the latter two regions. In addition, major growing areas of Uganda produced an average cereal crop harvest. Livestock access to pastures and water in the southwestern pastoral districts remains better than in the northeast, where the normal dry period is gradually reducing access to pasture and water. Delivery of dry grains and pulses to markets has increased, leading to a reduction in prices.

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3.1. Rainfall and Vegetation Conditions

Eastern Lake Victoria Basin and western and southwestern Uganda received average to above- normal rainfall during December as the season drew to a close in the latter two regions. This rainfall provided a welcome reprieve for late-planted crops, especially cereals. Figure 2 is based on Meteosat satellite imagery and compares the spatial distribution of rainfall for each of the three dekads (10-day periods) of December to the normal distribution for each period. It corroborates ground station reports of well-distributed rainfall in many parts of the southern half of the country.

Figure 2: Rainfall Estimates, Current Versus Normal Based on Meteosat Satellite Images Current: 1-10 Dec. 2000 Current: 11-20 Dec. 2000 Current: 21-31 Dec. 2000

Normal: 1-10 Dec. 2000 Normal: 11-20 Dec. 2000 Normal: 21-31 Dec. 2000

None Low Moderate High

FEWS NET/Uganda, January 2001 Source of data: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Adequate soil moisture maintains vegetation and ground water conditions in the southwestern cattle rearing areas in Mbarara, Ntungamo, and Rakai Districts as well as in Kabale District where many farmers practice dairy farming. Water and pastures are adequate for livestock. However, according to the Karamoja Project Implementation Unit, normal, seasonably dry conditions in Moroto and Kotido Districts have reduced availability of pastures and water there.

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3.2. Crop Conditions Figure 3: Crop Prices for Bananas, Beans, and Maize in Major Markets, January-December 2000 Most of the maize was harvested by Banana (Matooke) the beginning of January as the main 70000 Kasese growing areas of eastern, central, 60000 Masaka and western Uganda achieved Mbale 50000 normal crop production levels. Dry Mbarara conditions are suitable for drying and 40000 storing maize, although farmers in parts of the country have expressed 30000

concern about continued intermittent UShs per 100 Kilograms 20000 rains that may lower the quality of the crop. The sorghum harvest began in 10000

December and is expected to end by 0 early February in eastern, northern, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec and western Uganda. Dry Beans Farmers in western and 70000 Kasese southwestern Uganda are reporting 60000 Lira normal growing conditions, which Masaka 50000 have helped sustain crop Mbale development. Farmers started 40000 harvesting many crops in December. Banana production remains normal, 30000

benefiting from the adequate soil UShs per 100 Kilograms 20000 moisture. Sweet potatoes and cassava remain in adequate supply. 10000

0 3.3. Trade and Market Trends Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Dry Maize Grain With most of the second-season 70000 crops harvested and dried, Iganga 60000 commercial traders report that Kasese deliveries of cereals and beans to 50000 Masindi major markets in Uganda have Mbale improved. Overall, increasing supply 40000 of dry maize grain led to a decline in 30000 prices in all markets during

December, as expected, where the UShs per 100 Kilograms 20000 prices stood at about UShs 23,000 for a 100-kg bag, about UShs 3,000 10000 less than in November (Figure 3). 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec FEWS NET anticipates further reductions in the price of dry maize FEWS NET Uganda; Source: The Market Information System between December 2000 and (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, January 2001 January 2001, based on the seasonal price pattern in recent years.

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Markets have also registered reductions in bean prices, although bean price trends are less predictable than those for maize. A 100-kg bag of beans costs UShs 37,000, down from UShs 42,000 in November 2000. Reduced prices augur well for improved access to food for households dependent on the market.

A general rise in the price of banana (matooke) was observed during December, where a bag cost about UShs 2,200 more than in November. Excepting in the north, banana is a major staple crop in many districts of Uganda and is the main food eaten during festive periods in these areas. Higher prices during December reflect increased demand during the festive period. With the end of the festive period and subject to supply remaining normal, FEWS NET expects prices to return to normal levels as before December.

4. Special Feature: Nutrition and Food Security Assessment in Karamoja

OXFAM GB in Uganda is conducting a nutrition and food security assessment that it expects will lead to creation of a monitoring system for early warning in Kotido and Moroto Districts. Findings are due in late January or early February.

In May 2000, Oxfam Great Britain (GB) in Uganda carried out a nutrition and food security assessment of Kotido District that found that malnutrition rates in children ranged between normal and borderline global acute during the “hunger gap.” This finding meant that no emergency intervention was required. A repeat survey planned for August/September 2000 was deemed too early and hence postponed. Subsequently, Oxfam GB, together with the Lutheran World Federation (LWF) as the lead organization in Moroto District, government departments, NGOs, and community based organizations (CBOs), planned an expanded assessment that will cover Kotido as well as Moroto (not assessed in May).

The objectives of the assessment, which runs from January 8-20, 2001, including three days for training, are to: 1) establish a nutritional surveillance system in Kotido and Moroto Districts; 2) establish a simple monitoring mechanism to cover aspects of nutrition and food security that may be used for early warning; and 3) enable Oxfam and LWF to make recommendations regarding food and nutrition security in the two districts. A draft report is expected shortly after the assessment in late January or early February 2001.