hydrology Article RCP8.5-Based Future Flood Hazard Analysis for the Lower Mekong River Basin Edangodage Duminda Pradeep Perera 1,*, Takahiro Sayama 2, Jun Magome 3, Akira Hasegawa 4 ID and Yoichi Iwami 5 1 United Nations University–Institute for Water, Environment and Health, Hamilton, ON L8P 0A1, Canada 2 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan;
[email protected] 3 International Research Centre for River Basin Environment, University of Yamanashi, Kofu 400-8511, Japan;
[email protected] 4 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management, Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 302-8516, Japan;
[email protected] 5 Nagasaki Prefectural Civil Engineering Department, Nagasaki 850-8570, Japan;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +1-905-667-5483 Received: 13 September 2017; Accepted: 21 November 2017; Published: 23 November 2017 Abstract: Climatic variations caused by the excessive emission of greenhouse gases are likely to change the patterns of precipitation, runoff processes, and water storage of river basins. Various studies have been conducted based on precipitation outputs of the global scale climatic models under different emission scenarios. However, there is a limitation in regional- and local-scale hydrological analysis on extreme floods with the combined application of high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models’ (AGCM) outputs and physically-based hydrological models (PBHM). This study has taken an effort to overcome that limitation in hydrological analysis. The present and future precipitation, river runoff, and inundation distributions for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) were analyzed to understand hydrological changes in the LMB under the RCP8.5 scenario.