Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River

Upper York Sewage Solutions Environmental Assessment

Prepared for: The Regional Municipality of York

Prepared by:

Conestoga-Rovers & Associates DECEMBER 2013 REF. NO. 050278 (87) 1195 Stellar Drive, Unit 1 YORK REGION NO. 74270 Newmarket, Ontario L3Y 7B8

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Executive Summary

The main objectives of the Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River study are:

. To investigate the effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the thermal regime of the East Holland River . To study the effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the river ice regime in the East Holland River

Study Area

The stretch of the East Holland River (study area) considered for the thermal study includes the lower portion of the East Holland River from Holland Landing to the confluence with the West Holland River and the main branch of the Holland River from the confluence to Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe. Given the preferred location for the Water Reclamation Centre outfall is the south side of Queensville Sideroad at the East Holland River. The area potentially affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge will be the lower portion of the East Holland River. For purposes of this study, the lower portion of the East Holland River and the main branch of the Holland River are referred to as the "East Holland River".

The potential effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the thermal and ice regimes of the East Holland River were studied and assessed by utilizing an advanced dynamic numerical modelling approach. Thermal and river ice hydrodynamic models were built and the effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge assessed by comparing the results of the models generated by scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code Model (EFDC) was used to assess potential water temperature effects in the river, and the Corps of Engineers – QUALity – Width averaged 2D (CE-QUAL-W2) model was used to assess the potential river ice effects.

Data Compilation

Available flow rate, water level, and water temperature data from monitoring stations were used in this study to characterize the ambient conditions in the East and West Holland Rivers and Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe.

In terms of effluent characterization, for modelling purposes, a monthly average discharge was constructed ranging from a maximum month flow of 52 million litres per day (MLD) (1.3 of Annual Average Day Flow (AADF)) occurring in the typical wet weather months of March/April to a minimum month flow of 33 MLD (0.82 of AADF). This distribution was based on the seasonal variability of wastewater flow conditions that typically occurs in Ontario in relation to wet weather periods and dry weather periods. Effluent wastewater temperatures for the Water Reclamation Centre discharge were developed by examining available historical data for existing wastewater

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Limited meteorological data were available within the Holland River watershed for the numerical modelling. Global solar radiation and precipitation data were obtained from Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) stations Scanlon2 (LSEMS106) and Newmarket (LS0108). The remaining data (wind speed and direction, air temperature, dew point, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and cloud cover) were obtained from the closest Environment Canada (EC) climate stations.

Thermal Model Implementation

The EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models were spatially calibrated and validated with water surface elevations, flow velocities, and water temperatures measured on December 1, 2011 and December 8, 2011. The simulation period was November 11, 2011 – December 10, 2011 to cover the two field monitoring events. Furthermore, the EFDC model was temporally calibrated to continuous hourly water temperature data collected near the Water Reclamation Centre discharge location for the period from April 8, 2012 to March 31, 2013. The CE-QUAL-W2 model was temporally calibrated to ice thickness data collected at three monitoring stations in the East Holland River during the winter 2012 – 2013.

Modelling Results

As a simplification of the potential flow discharge conditions and considering the relative magnitude of potential water reuse quantities to the Water Reclamation Centre annual average day design flow (40 MLD), water reuse quantities have not been included in the modelling scenarios. Therefore, the results would reflect maximum Water Reclamation Centre flow (i.e., 100 percent) to the receiver in the year 2031, despite the likely diversion of some Water Reclamation Centre treated effluent for water reuse. For the dynamic scenarios with Water Reclamation Centre discharge, a monthly average discharge was constructed ranging from a maximum month flow of 52 MLD occurring in the typical wet weather months of March/April to a minimum month flow of 33 MLD.

The EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models produce results that are distributed in time and space. As such, the results are presented as a time-varying comparison of water temperatures and ice thicknesses without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge at different locations downstream of the proposed discharge, as well as spatial snapshots of the study area at different times of the year. The time-varying comparison of water temperatures and ice thicknesses without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge was constructed at eight locations downstream of the proposed discharge location (50 m, 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, 1,000 m, and 2,500 m downstream of Queensville Sideroad; 250 m downstream of the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers, and at the mouth of the river at Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe).

The EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models were used to predict the potential effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the seasonal distribution of water temperatures and ice regime in the East Holland River, respectively.

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Thermal effects and benefits of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge include the following:

. Water temperatures in the East Holland River would increase during the winter months (December through March) and decrease during the summer months (June through August) because the effluent temperature would be higher than the ambient water temperature in winter and lower in summer. . The effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the ambient water temperatures would be relatively minor in the spring (April through May) and fall (September through November) periods when the effluent and ambient temperatures are similar. . The maximum change in water temperatures would be observed near the proposed discharge location, where the daily water temperatures may increase up to 5.8°C in winter and decrease by up to 7.3°C in summer. The mean monthly temperatures are expected to increase by up to 4.1°C in winter and decrease by up to 3.8°C in summer. . The potential effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on water temperature would gradually diminish downstream of the proposed discharge location. The affected section of the river would extend from the proposed discharge location to the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers. Downstream of the confluence the potential effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge would be minimal, if any. . The Water Reclamation Centre discharge would provide a moderating effect on water temperatures during summer low flow, high temperature receiver conditions.

The section of the river from the proposed discharge location to approximately 1 kilometre (km) downstream would be most affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge; the section from 1 km downstream to the confluence would be moderately affected; and the section from the confluence to Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe minimally affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge.

River ice effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge include the following:

. Ice thickness in the river is predicted to decrease during the winter period, as evidenced by open water. The areas near the proposed discharge location would experience the largest area of open water. Depending on atmospheric conditions, it is predicted that the areas in the East Holland River within 1 to 4 km downstream of the proposed discharge location may experience ice-free conditions during the winter by 2031 and with full 40 MLD discharge from the Water Reclamation Centre. . The potential effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on ice thickness is predicted to gradually diminish downstream of the proposed discharge location. In the areas about 1 to 4 km downstream of the proposed discharge location the river ice would form again, but the ice thickness would be reduced. Near the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers the effect of the discharge is predicted to be minimal, if any. . The seasonal ice duration is predicted to be shortened by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. In the winter of 2010-2011, at the location 2.5 km downstream of the proposed discharge location, the ice duration is predicted to be reduced by 7 days, from 94 days to 87 days. At the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers, the ice duration is predicted to be reduced by less than 2 days.

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. The section of the East Holland River located downstream of the proposed discharge location may potentially become unsafe for winter recreation usage. As a result, safety measures (warning signs, diversion of snowmobile routes, etc.) need to be investigated/implemented.

The potential effects of the proposed discharge from the Water Reclamation Centre in 2031 are expected to be most visible within the first kilometre of the East Holland River downstream of the proposed discharge location. The potential effects lessen over the next two kilometres downstream of the proposed discharge location. From the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers to Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe, the potential effects would be minimal, if any.

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Table of Contents

Page

Executive Summary i

1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objectives 2 1.3 Study Area 3 1.4 Approach 7

2.0 Data Compilation 8 2.1 Ambient Characterization 8 2.1.1 East Holland River 11 2.1.1.1 Flow Rates 11 2.1.1.2 Water Temperature 14 2.1.2 West Holland River 18 2.1.2.1 Flow Rates 18 2.1.2.2 Water Temperature 21 2.1.3 Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe 22 2.1.3.1 Water Levels 22 2.1.3.2 Water Temperature 25 2.2 Effluent Characterization 29 2.2.1 Flow Rates 29 2.2.2 Water Temperature 31 2.3 Meteorological data 32 2.3.1 Wind Speed and Direction 35 2.3.2 Air Temperature 38 2.3.3 Dew Point and Relative Humidity 40 2.3.4 Atmospheric Pressure 46 2.3.5 Precipitation 49 2.3.6 Global Solar Radiation 52 2.3.7 Cloud Cover 56 2.4 CRA Field Monitoring Data 59

3.0 Thermal Model Implementation 63 3.1 Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) Model 63 3.1.1 Model Setup 65 3.1.1.1 Grid Generation and Bathymetry Interpolation 65 3.1.1.2 Model Boundaries 68 3.1.1.3 Model Parameters 69 3.1.1.4 Sensitivity Analysis 70 3.1.2 Model Calibration and Validation 72 3.1.3 Model Limitations 76

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Table of Contents

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3.2 CE-QUAL-W2 76 3.2.1 Model Setup 77 3.2.1.1 Grid Generation 77 3.2.1.2 Model Boundaries 80 3.2.1.3 Model Parameters 80 3.2.1.4 Sensitivity Analysis 82 3.2.2 Model Calibration and Validation 83 3.2.3 Model Limitations 88

4.0 Modelling Results 88 4.1 Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code 90 4.1.1 Temporal Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre Thermal Effects 90 4.1.2 Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre Thermal Effects 100 4.2 CE-QUAL-W2 101 4.2.1 Temporal Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre River Ice Effects 101 4.2.2 Modelled Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre River Ice Effects 113

5.0 Summary 115

6.0 References 121 Glossary of Terms 122

List of Figures

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Figure 1.1: UYSS EA Study Area 4 Figure 1.2: The Thermal Effects and East and West Holland River Subwatersheds Study Areas 6 Figure 2.1: Surface Water Quantity and Quality Stations used in this Study 10 Figure 2.2: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Flows in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Long-term Period 1966 to 2012 11

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List of Figures

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Figure 2.3: Daily Flows in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 12 Figure 2.4: Mean Monthly Flows in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (1966– March 2012) Periods 13 Figure 2.5: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Long-term Period 1968 - 2011 14 Figure 2.6: 30-Minute Water Temperature in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 16 Figure 2.7: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation Period (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and in the East Holland River at Holland Landing and River Drive Park (MOE Station IDs 03007703902 and 03007700102) for the Long-term Period (1968 – 2011) 17 Figure 2.8: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Flows in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Long-term Period 1974 - 2003 19 Figure 2.9: Daily Flows in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 - March 31, 2012 20 Figure 2.10: Mean Monthly Flows in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (1974 – 2003) Periods 21 Figure 2.11: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Lake Simcoe Water Levels at Jackson Point for the Long-term Period of 1960 - 2011 23 Figure 2.12: Daily Water Levels in Lake Simcoe at Jackson Point for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 24 Figure 2.13: Mean Monthly Water levels in Lake Simcoe at Jackson Point for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (1960 – 2011) Periods 25

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List of Figures

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Figure 2.14: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Water Temperatures in Lake Simcoe at Station C1 (EC Station ID 20133162) for the Long-term Period of 2002-2011 26 Figure 2.15: Daily Water Temperatures in Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe at Station C1 (EC Station ID 20133162) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 27 Figure 2.16: Weekly/Bi-weekly Water Temperature in Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe at Station C1 (EC Station ID 20133162) for the Period October 12, 2010 – November 26, 2011 and Corresponding Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River at Holland Landing 28 Figure 2.17: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures at C1 Station (EC Station ID 20133162) for Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2002-2011) Periods 29 Figure 2.18: Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Monthly Flow Rates 31 Figure 2.19: Mean Monthly Ambient and Effluent Water Temperatures 32 Figure 2.20: Location of Meteorological Stations Utilized 34 Figure 2.21: Wind Speed and Direction at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) Station for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012 36 Figure 2.22: Wind Speed and Direction at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 37 Figure 2.23: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Air Temperature at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012 38 Figure 2.24: Hourly Air Temperatures at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 39 Figure 2.26: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Dew Point at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012 41 Figure 2.27: Hourly Dew Point Data at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 42 Figure 2.28: Mean Monthly Dew Point Data at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001-2012) Periods 43 Figure 2.29: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Relative Humidity at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012 44

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Figure 2.30: Frequency of Hourly Relative Humidity at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2011 – March 31, 2012 45 Figure 2.31: Mean Monthly Relative Humidity at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2012) Periods 46 Figure 2.32: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Atmospheric Pressure at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012 47 Figure 2.33 Hourly Atmospheric Pressure at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 48 Figure 2.34 Mean Monthly Atmospheric Pressure at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2012) Periods 49 Figure 2.35: Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Monthly Precipitation at LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2011 50 Figure 2.36: Hourly Precipitation at LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 51 Figure 2.37: Mean Monthly Precipitation at LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2011) Periods 52 Figure 2.38: Mean Monthly Global Solar Radiation at EC Station Toronto (ID 6158350) for the Long-term Period 1971 – 2000 53 Figure 2.39: Hourly Global Solar Radiation at LSRCA Station Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 55 Figure 2.40: Mean Monthly Global Solar Radiation at LSRCA Station Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and at EC Station Toronto (ID 6158350) for the Long-term (1971 - 2000) Periods 56 Figure 2.41: Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Cloud Cover at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012 57 Figure 2.42: Hourly Cloud Cover Occurrence at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 58

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List of Figures

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Figure 2.43: Mean Monthly Cloud Cover at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2012) Periods 59 Figure 2.44: CRA Field Test Monitoring Locations within the Study Area on December 1 and 8, 2011 Used in the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 Models Calibration and Validation 60 Figure 2.45: CRA Field Test Monitoring of Water Temperature from April 8, 2012 to March 31, 2013 Used in the EFDC Model Temporal Calibration 62 Figure 3.1: EFDC Model Grid 66 Figure 3.2: EFDC Model Bathymetry 67 Figure 3.3: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Grid 79 Figure 4.1: Locations for the Assessment of Model Results 89 Figure 4.2: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 92 Figure 4.3: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 93 Figure 4.4: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 94 Figure 4.5: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 95 Figure 4.6: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 96 Figure 4.7: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 97 Figure 4.8: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Confluence of the West Holland River and the East Holland River 98 Figure 4.9: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River at Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe 99

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

List of Figures

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Figure 4.10: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 103 Figure 4.11: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 104 Figure 4.12: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 105 Figure 4.13: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 106 Figure 4.14: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 107 Figure 4.15: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location 108 Figure 4.16: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Confluence of the West Holland River and East Holland River 109 Figure 4.17: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River at Cook's Bay 110 Figure 5.1: Changes in Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge 116 Figure 5.2: Changes in Daily Water Temperatures in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge 117 Figure 5.3: Changes in Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge 119 Figure 5.4: Changes in Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge 120

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List of Tables

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Table 2.1: Summary of Surface Water Quantity and Quality Stations 9 Table 2.2: Flow Characteristics in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Period 1974 - 2003 18 Table 2.3: Water Reclamation Centre (WRC) Design Flow Conditions 30 Table 2.4: Meteorological Parameters 33 Table 2.5: CRA Field Test Monitoring of the East Holland River on December 1 and 8, 2011 Used in the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 Models Calibration and Validation 61 Table 2.6: CRA Field Test Monitoring of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River in 2012 and 2013 Used in CE-QUAL-W2 Model Temporal Calibration 63 Table 3.1: Key EFDC Model Parameter Values 69 Table 3.2: EFDC Model Parameters for Sensitivity Analysis 71 Table 3.3: EFDC Model Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Results 71 Table 3.4: EFDC Model Hydrodynamic Calibration Boundary Conditions 72 Table 3.5: Calibrated EFDC Model Parameters 73 Table 3.6: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Water Surface Elevations 73 Table 3.7: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Horizontal Velocity 74 Table 3.8: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Water Temperature 75 Table 3.9: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Temporal Water Temperature 75 Table 3.10: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Branches 78 Table 3.11: Key CE QUAL W2 Model Parameter Values 81 Table 3.12: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Parameters for Sensitivity Analysis 82 Table 3.13: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Sensitivity Analysis Results 83 Table 3.14: Calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Parameters Values 84 Table 3.15: Calibrated and Validated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Performance in Simulating Water Surface Elevations 85 Table 3.16: Calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Performance in Simulating Horizontal Velocity 86

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List of Tables

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Table 3.17: Calibrated CE QUAL W2 Model Performance in Simulating Water Temperature 87 Table 3.18: Calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Performance in Simulating Ice Thickness 87 Table 4.1: Water Temperature Changes (in °C) due to Water Reclamation Centre Discharge at Queensville Sideroad 90 Table 4.2: Scenarios of Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre Thermal Effects 100 Table 4.3: Modelled Ice Thickness Statistics 112 Table 4.4: Scenarios of Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre River Ice Effects 113

List of Appendices

Appendix A EFDC Model Calibration Results Appendix B CE-QUAL-W2 Model Pre/post Processing Tools Development Appendix C CE-QUAL-W2 Model Calibration Results Appendix D EFDC Simulation Results Appendix E CE-QUAL-W2 Simulation Results

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Section 1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background

This report documents the potential effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the thermal regime and river ice regime in the East Holland River, which was studied as part of the Upper York Sewage Solutions Environmental Assessment (UYSS EA). In March 2010, the Minister of the Environment (Minister) approved the Terms of Reference (ToR) of the UYSS EA with an amendment to consider "Innovative Wastewater Treatment Technologies" as part of the UYSS EA. In response, The Regional Municipality of York (York Region) developed the Lake Simcoe Water Reclamation Centre alternative with York Durham Sewage System (YDSS) modifications1.

In this alternative, wastewater resulting from growth in the Town of Aurora and most of the Town of Newmarket would be conveyed through the YDSS for treatment at the Duffin Creek Water Pollution Control Plant (WPCP) and discharge to Lake Ontario. To accommodate this alternative, modifications to the existing YDSS in the Town of Newmarket would be required. Wastewater resulting from growth in the Town of East Gwillimbury and a portion of the Town of Newmarket would be conveyed to the Water Reclamation Centre for treatment, using environmentally sustainable wastewater purification and water recycling technologies, and the treated water would be discharged to the East Holland River within the Lake Simcoe watershed.

The Lake Simcoe Water Reclamation Centre would treat wastewater using proven, leading-edge wastewater purification and water recycling technologies to produce two effluent streams:

. Nutrient-rich water for potential applications such as irrigation and industrial uses . High quality, phosphorus reduced water for discharge to the East Holland River within the Lake Simcoe watershed

The Lake Simcoe Water Reclamation Centre with YDSS modifications was selected as the Preferred Alternative to the Undertaking. As a result, a series of studies were carried out to further assess the receiver and the Water Reclamation Centre discharge requirements as part of the Alternative Methods of Carrying Out the Undertaking stage of the UYSS EA. These studies, collectively referred to as the Receiving Stream Assessment Studies, included the following:

. Study of Potential Impacts of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on Flooding Potential in the East Holland River . Comprehensive Assimilative Capacity Study of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

1 The alternative described herein is considered as proposed until the Undertaking identified through the UYSS EA is approved by the Minister of the Environment

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. Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River . Hydrodynamic Analysis of the Water Reclamation Centre Outfall . Assessment of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on Aquatic Habitat in the East Holland River . Geomorphological Assessment of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River

The results of the Receiving Stream Assessment Studies were documented in individual stand- alone reports and incorporated into the Natural Environment Impact Assessment Report. Upon completion, each report would be made available during the UYSS EA to review agencies, First Nations and Métis organizations, and the public. The information would be provided on the project website and upon request, and would become either a reference or supporting document to the submitted Environmental Assessment Report.

1.2 Objectives

The relevant legislative authority in Ontario for the control of point source discharges, such as sewage treatment facilities, is found in the Ontario Water Resources Act. Discharge specifications are contained in compliance documents and other legal instruments of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MOE). The legal and policy framework for the compliance documents is provided in MOE Procedure B-1-5 (Deriving Receiving-Water-Based, Point-Source Effluent Requirements for Ontario Waters, July 1994).

Under provincial legislation, the assessment of the assimilative capacity of the receiver by a project proponent is a mandatory requirement for any new or expanded sewage treatment works. It is intended that the assimilative capacity assessment would define effluent quality and quantity criteria that serve as the basis of design for the proposed sewage treatment works. Ultimately, the MOE reviews and approves the effluent quality and quantity criteria for a specific facility through the approvals process.

This study complements the Comprehensive Assimilative Capacity Study of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge (CRA et al., 2012) and provides a detailed analysis of the potential thermal effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the East Holland River. This study has the following two primary objectives:

. To investigate the potential effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the thermal regime of the East Holland River . To study the potential effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the river ice regime in the East Holland River

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1.3 Study Area

The UYSS EA Study Area was defined as part of the UYSS EA Terms of Reference for generating a general description of the potentially affected environment. The area extends north to Lake Simcoe, east to Woodbine Avenue, west to Bathurst Street, and south to Green Lane East where the east/west boundaries constrict to Yonge Street and Leslie Street, respectively, and the southern boundary terminates at St. John's Sideroad. The UYSS EA Study Area includes the Towns of Aurora (very northern portion), Newmarket (bounded by Yonge Street and Leslie Street), East Gwillimbury (western half), and Georgina (extreme southwestern portion). Figure 1.1 shows the boundaries of the UYSS EA Study Area.

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Figure 1.1: UYSS EA Study Area

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The Thermal Effects Study Area represents the detailed study area and includes the lower portion of the East Holland River from Holland Landing to the confluence with the West Holland River and the main branch of the Holland River to the confluence with Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe (see Figure 1.2). This is the area potentially affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. The West Holland River was not included in the detailed study area.

For purposes of this study, the lower portion of the East Holland River within the study area limits and the main branch of the Holland River are referred to as the "East Holland River".

The East and West Holland River Subwatersheds Study Area (also broader or general study area) considered for the thermal study which includes the thermal effects study area and the East and West Holland River subwatersheds. This area was studied with the purpose of defining hydro-meteorological inputs required for modelling the thermal effects study area. The general study area is outlined on Figure 1.2.

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Figure 1.2: The Thermal Effects and East and West Holland River Subwatersheds Study Areas

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1.4 Approach

The potential effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the thermal and ice regimes of the East Holland River were studied and assessed by utilizing an advanced dynamic numerical modelling approach. Thermal and river ice hydrodynamic models were built for the detailed study area and the potential effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge were assessed by comparing the results of the models generated by scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. The thermal modelling (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC)) was part of the comprehensive assimilative capacity study (CRA et al., 2012); the need for river ice modeling was identified after the thermal study had been completed.

The ice model (Corps of Engineers – QUALlity – Width averaged 2D (CE-QUAL-W2)) is laterally averaged and cannot produce spatially detailed results for specific locations in the river as required by other disciplines involved in the UYSS EA (e.g., biologists, geomorphologists). Therefore, the EFDC model was used to assess potential water temperature related effects in the river, and the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to assess potential ice related effects in the river.

The EFDC model is a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model capable of simulating aquatic systems (e.g., rivers, lakes, estuaries, reservoirs, wetlands, and coastal regions) in one, two, and three dimensions (1D, 2D, and 3D) including flow, transport, and biogeochemical processes. The model was originally developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, and is currently being supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). Within the past two decades, EFDC has become one of the most widely applied and technically defensible hydrodynamic models in the world (Tetra Tech Inc., 2007). The model has been extensively tested, documented, and applied worldwide by universities, government agencies, and environmental consulting firms.

The CE-QUAL-W2 model is a two-dimensional (2D) water quality and hydrodynamic model that can simulate ice processes including formation, growth and decay, and break for various waterbodies such as rivers, estuaries, lakes, reservoirs, and river basin systems. CE-QUAL-W2 has been under continuous development since 1975. The original model was known as LARM (Laterally Averaged Reservoir Model) developed by Edinger and Buchak (Edinger and Buchak, 1975).

Subsequent modifications that were made to allow for multiple branches and estuarine boundary conditions resulted in GLVHT (Generalized Longitudinal-Vertical Hydrodynamics and Transport Model). Version 1.0 of the model was formed by including water quality algorithms by the water quality modelling group at the U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station. The current model release has been developed under research contracts between the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Portland State University under the supervision of Dr. Scott Wells. The latest version (at the time of writing this report) is 3.7.1 released on November 5, 2012.

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The CE-QUAL-W2 model has been extensively applied worldwide in more than 116 countries and in more than 280 river systems. In Canada, the model has been applied to the Athabasca River, Battle River, Bow River, Bridge River, and others (Portland State University, 2012).

Both the temporal and spatial aspects of the thermal and river ice regimes in the East Holland River were analyzed and assessed in this study. The temporal aspect was assessed at several representative locations in the river downstream of the proposed discharge location at Queensville Sideroad. The spatial aspect was assessed for selected days representative of typical and extreme thermal and river ice conditions in the river.

Section 2.0 Data Compilation

The EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 are data intensive models. The required inputs include hydrological parameters (flow rates, water levels, water temperatures), meteorological parameters (wind speed and direction, air temperature, dew point, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, global solar radiation, and cloud cover), and effluent characterization (discharge rate, effluent water quality). This section discusses the various data sources used in the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 modelling. The period from October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 was selected as the simulation period for the thermal modelling.

Water temperature and flow data are available prior to October 1, 2010; however, some meteorological parameters such as global solar radiation are only available for the most recent period from 2011 to present. This period represents recent hydro-climatic conditions in the study area, encompasses the continuous simulation period used in the assimilative capacity study, November 1, 2010 to October 31, 2011 (CRA et al., 2012), and is representative of typical hydrologic conditions in the East Holland River. The period was extended to March 2012, covering two winter periods, to allow for the study of river ice processes.

Three datasets from CRA field monitoring were used to calibrate and validate the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models: CRA field monitoring on December 1 and 8, 2011, continuous hourly water temperature monitoring near the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location from April 8, 2012 to March 31, 2013, and ice thickness measurements at three locations across the river collected during the winter 2012–2013.

2.1 Ambient Characterization

Ambient surface water quantity and quality parameters (flow rates, water levels, and water temperatures) are required as data inputs to drive the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models. The ambient parameters are monitored in the study area by the Water Survey of Canada (WSC), Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA), the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) Provincial Water Quality Monitoring Network (PWQMN), and the Trent-Severn Waterway Authority (TSWA). The surface water quantity and quality stations selected and used in this study are summarized in Table 2.1.

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Table 2.1: Summary of Surface Water Quantity and Quality Stations

Station ID Station Name Agency Data Data Frequency Data Type Record Record From To 02EC009 East Holland WSC/LSRCA 7/30/2008 6/4/2012 30-minute Water River at Holland temperature Landing 02EC009 East Holland WSC /LSRCA 9/15/1965 Present Daily Flow /water River at Holland level Landing 03007703902 East Holland MOE 2002 Present Weekly/bi-weekly Water River at Holland temperature Landing 03007700102 East Holland MOE 1968 1995 Weekly/bi-weekly Water River at River temperature Drive Park 20133162 Lake Simcoe MOE 1980 Present Weekly/bi-weekly Water (C1) -Cook's Bay temperature Jackson Point TSWA 1960 Present Daily Water level

Figure 2.1 shows the locations of the monitoring stations used in this study to characterize the ambient conditions in the East and West Holland Rivers and Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe.

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Figure 2.1: Surface Water Quantity and Quality Stations used in this Study

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2.1.1 East Holland River

2.1.1.1 Flow Rates

The East Holland River flow rate data were obtained from the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) station East Holland River at Holland Landing (ID 02EC009), which is located approximately six kilometres upstream of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge location at Queensville Sideroad. This station has a 48-year long period of recorded data (1965-2012). The 2012 data were not available at the time of this study. Also, the incomplete year, 1965, was excluded from the analysis, reducing the available record length to 46 years.

Figure 2.2 shows the distribution of mean monthly flows calculated from the daily flow data for the period 1966 to March 2012. The figure indicates a bi-modal distribution of the mean monthly flows, with a primary, snowmelt-induced high flow season in the spring (March-April), and a secondary, frontal rainfall season in the late fall (November). Summer and early fall represents the low-flow season.

Figure 2.2: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Flows in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Long-term Period 1966 to 2012

Average Minimum Maximum - Secondary Axis 3.5 60

3.0 2.88 50 2.72

2.5 /s] 3 40 /s] 3 2.0

30 1.50 1.50 1.5 1.29

1.24 Maximum flow rate [m 1.12 20

Average and and minimum flow flow [m rate minimum and Average and 1.0 0.88 0.85 0.78 0.69 0.73

10 0.5

0.0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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The long-term mean daily flow for this period was 1.35 cubic metres per second (m3/s). The minimum daily flow historically measured at this station was 0.062 m3/s, and the maximum daily flow was 53.4 m3/s. The monthly distribution of maximum and minimum daily flows is also shown on Figure 2.2. The minimum instantaneous flow (0.026 m3/s) was observed on January 3, 1999 and the maximum observed instantaneous peak flow (87.5 m3/s) occurred on February 2, 1975. The assimilative capacity study report (CRA et al., 2012) provides a detailed analysis of flows in the East Holland River.

Figure 2.3 shows the time series of daily flows for the simulation period (October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012). The maximum and minimum flows for this period are 22.8 m3/s and 0.211 m3/s, respectively, and the mean daily flow is 1.57 m3/s.

Figure 2.3: Daily Flows in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 25

15 /s] 3 Flow rate [m 10

0 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

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Figure 2.4 compares the mean monthly flows calculated for the simulation period to the mean monthly flows obtained for the long-term period (1966 - 2011). Overall, the mean monthly flows for the simulation period capture well the long-term seasonality of flows in the East Holland River. The mean monthly flows are similar in some months of the simulation period, except for the mean monthly flows in March, May, September, October, and December, 2011, which are significantly higher than the long-term mean, and the flows in March 2012, which are significantly lower than the long-term mean.

Figure 2.4: Mean Monthly Flows in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (1966– March 2012) Periods

Simulation Period (Oct 2010 - Mar 2012) Long-term period (1966 - 2011) 5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0 /s] 3

2.5 Flow rate [m 2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

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2.1.1.2 Water Temperature

Water temperatures in the East Holland River vary seasonally from a low of 0°C in the winter months to approximately 25 to 30°C during the summer months. The historical maximum temperature (30.8°C) was recorded at the station East Holland River at River Drive Park (Environment Canada (EC) Station ID 03007700102) on June 19, 1991.

Figure 2.5 shows the distribution of mean monthly water temperatures in the East Holland River at Holland Landing and at River Drive Park (the two records were combined). As shown on the figure, monthly average water temperatures for the summer months (June, July, and August) were in the range of 21.9°C to 23.4°C, although daily maximum water temperatures during this period were higher, around 30°C. The maximum and minimum daily water temperatures for each month are also plotted on Figure 2.5.

Figure 2.5: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Long-term Period 1968 - 2011

Average Maximum Minimum 35

25 23.4 22.7 21.9 C] o 20 18.4

15.7 15 Water temperature [ temperature Water 11.6

10 7.6

5.7 5

1.8 1.5 0.9 1.0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Water temperature data available from the Provincial Water Quality Monitoring Network (PWQMN) stations East Holland River at Holland Landing and at River Drive Park are measured weekly or bi-weekly; there are few or no observations during winter periods. Although EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 can interpolate such data intervals according to model time steps, it is best to use continuous water temperature data to achieve higher model accuracy. Continuous water temperature data, measured in 30-minute intervals, were obtained from the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) for the station East Holland River at Holland Landing (ID 02EC009) for the simulation period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012.

Figure 2.6 shows the 30-minute time series of water temperatures plotted for the simulation period. The original data contained many outliers that were addressed during the data pre-processing stage of the modelling.

The outliers were determined based on:

a) water temperature higher than 150oC or lower than -50oC b) for two adjacent observations (30-minute frequency), water temperature variations larger than 1oC

The highest measured water temperature during the simulation period was 30.5oC measured on July 21, 2011, at 16:30. During the winter of 2010-2011, the water temperature fluctuated around 0.9oC. During the milder winter of 2011-2012, the water temperature data show more variation ranging from 0oC to 2.8oC (see Figure 2.6). The low variation of water temperature during the 2010-2011 winter may be due to the fact that it was extremely cold with continuous river ice cover; water temperature records from other stations in this region show the same trend. On the other hand during the mild 2011-2012 winter, there was no continuous freeze-up period in the river and the variation in water temperature was high.

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Figure 2.6: 30-Minute Water Temperature in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 35

25 C] o 20

15 Water temperature [ temperature Water

0 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

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Figure 2.7 compares the mean monthly water temperatures for the simulation and long-term periods. The mean monthly water temperatures for the simulation period were calculated from the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) 30-minute data, and for the long-term period from the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) stations East Holland River at Holland Landing (ID 0300770392) and East Holland River at River Drive Park (ID 03007700102). Overall, the simulation period represents the long-term period very well, except for March 2012 when the mean monthly water temperature is 4.2°C higher than the long-term mean.

Figure 2.7: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009) for the Simulation Period (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and in the East Holland River at Holland Landing and River Drive Park (MOE Station IDs 03007703902 and 03007700102) for the Long-term Period (1968 – 2011)

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term period (1968 - 2011) 25

20 C] o 15

10 Water temperature [ temperature Water

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2.1.2 West Holland River

2.1.2.1 Flow Rates

The West Holland River is the larger branch of the Holland River. The subwatershed area of the West Holland River (335 km2) is approximately 1.5 times larger than the area of the East Holland River subwatershed (222 km2).

The only streamflow data available for the West Holland River are from the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) station "Schomberg River near Schomberg" (ID 02EC010). This station is located in the headwaters of the West Holland River and accounts for only a small portion (15 percent, or 51.3 km2) of the subwatershed. The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) attempted to monitor streamflow in the lower reaches of the West Holland River in the past, but these efforts produced unreliable data due to the backwater effects of Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe (very small flow velocities, reversing flow conditions).

To address the lack of data, a watershed model was built to approximate hydrologic conditions in the West Holland River and to generate synthetic time series of flows required for the thermal and river ice modelling. A continuous, semi-distributed, process-oriented watershed model was set up for the entire Holland River watershed using the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS, see USACE, 2010). The model was calibrated and validated at several stations in the watershed with historical streamflow data, including the station West Holland River at Schomberg (WSC Station ID 02EC010) and East Holland River at Holland Landing (WSC Station ID 02EC009). A detailed description of the model is provided in the assimilative capacity study report (CRA et al., 2012).

The calibrated model was used to generate time series of daily flows at the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers. This location defined one of the flow boundaries in the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models. The HEC-HMS model results for the 30-year long-term period from 1974 to 2003, which provided the best spatial and temporal overlap between available historical streamflow and climatic (precipitation, air temperature) data, were used to estimate streamflow statistics at the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers (see Table 2.2).

Table 2.2: Flow Characteristics in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Period 1974 - 2003

Flow Value (m3/s) Mean daily flow 2.41 Maximum daily flow 81.2 Minimum daily flow 0.123

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Figure 2.8 shows the mean monthly flows in the West Holland River at the confluence with the East Holland River. The figure confirms bi-modal distribution of mean monthly flows similar to the distribution of mean monthly flows in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (refer to Figure 2.2). The highest flow simulated during the period 1974 to 2003 was 81.2 m3/s on February 17, 1984 while the lowest flows approached 0.1 m3/s in several years of the simulation period. This is due to the synthetic character of the simulated flows (see the distribution of minimum daily flows on Figure 2.8).

Figure 2.8: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Flows in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Long-term Period 1974 - 2003

Average Minimum Maximum 6 90

5.50

70 4.36 /s] 3 4 60 3.61 /s] 3 3.31 50

3 2.64 2.66 40 Maximum flow rate [m 2 30 Average and minimum flow rate [m rate flow minimum Average and

1.28 1.18 1.19 20 1.11 1.12 1.07 1

0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 2.9 shows the time series of daily flows in the West Holland River at the confluence for the simulation period (October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012). The maximum and minimum flow rates for this period are 39.0 m3/s and 0.123 m3/s, respectively, and the mean daily flow rate is 2.02 m3/s.

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Figure 2.9: Daily Flows in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 - March 31, 2012 45

30 /s]

3 25

20 Flow rate [m

0 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

Figure 2.10 presents a comparison of the mean monthly flows for the simulation period with the mean monthly flows for the long-term period. Overall, the mean monthly flows for the simulation period capture the long-term seasonality of flows in the West Holland River.

There were no available observed data in the West Holland River at the confluence with East Holland River; therefore, the HEC-HMS model was not calibrated at this location. It is noted that the potential effects of flows at the confluence on the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 modelling results is low given the fact that the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location is several kilometres upstream of the confluence.

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Figure 2.10: Mean Monthly Flows in the West Holland River at the Confluence with the East Holland River for the Simulation(October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (1974 – 2003) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term Period (1974 - 2003) 7

/s] 4 3

3 Flow rate [m

2.1.2.2 Water Temperature

There are no water temperature data available for the West Holland River at the confluence with the East Holland River. For purposes of the modelling, the water temperature in the West Holland River was assumed to be the same as in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (refer to Figure 2.6). It is noted that any differences between the water temperatures in the East and West Holland Rivers should be small given their geographic proximity. It is also noted that the differences would have negligible effects on the modelling results given that proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location is several kilometres upstream of the confluence.

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2.1.3 Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe

2.1.3.1 Water Levels

The water levels in the lake are artificially controlled by the Trent-Severn Waterway Authority. High water levels in the lake are generally maintained during the summer period and low levels during the winter period. Depending on the seasonal water levels in Lake Simcoe, the lake can hydraulically affect the Holland River as far upstream as Holland Landing by actually 'reversing' the flow in the river causing 'backwater effects'.

Historical lake level records obtained from the Trent Severn Waterway Authority for the period 1960 to 2011 at the station closest to the mouth of the Holland River (Lake Simcoe at Jackson Point) were reviewed and the long-term (1960-2011) average water level was calculated to be 218.88 metres Above Mean Sea Level (MASL). The historical maximum and minimum water levels measured at this station were 219.49 MASL (May 14, 1960) and 218.44 MASL (December 15, 1964), respectively.

Figure 2.11 shows the extreme (minimum and maximum) and the mean monthly water levels in Lake Simcoe at Jackson Point for the period from 1960 to 2011. The maximum water levels follow the spring snowmelt and occur in May and June, and the minimum water levels occur in late fall and early winter.

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Figure 2.11: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Lake Simcoe Water Levels at Jackson Point for the Long-term Period of 1960 - 2011

Average Maximum Minimum 219.6

219.4

219.2

219.09 219.08 219.03 219.02 219.0 218.92

218.82 218.82 218.8 218.76 218.76 218.75 218.75

Water level [mAMSL] level Water 218.73

218.6

218.4

218.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 2.12 shows the daily water levels in Lake Simcoe at Jackson point station for the simulation period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012. High water levels were maintained in June 2011, with a maximum value of 219.145 metres Above Mean Sea Level (MASL); the lowest water levels occurred in January 2011 (218.710) and in November 2011 (218.696 MASL). The water levels fluctuated by ±0.5 m during the simulation period.

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Figure 2.12: Daily Water Levels in Lake Simcoe at Jackson Point for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 219.20

219.15

219.10

219.05

219.00

218.95

218.90

218.85 Lake Simcoe Water Water Level Simcoe [mAMSL] Lake

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

Figure 2.13 shows a comparison of the mean monthly water levels for the simulation period with the long-term (1960 – 2011) mean monthly water levels. The simulation period reflects well the long-term seasonality of the water levels in Lake Simcoe. During the winter of 2010-2011, the months of December, January, and February had slightly lower water levels than the long-term mean; during the 2011-2012 winter, the three months had higher levels than the corresponding long-term means. In March 2011 and 2012, the water levels were significantly higher than the long-term mean.

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Figure 2.13: Mean Monthly Water levels in Lake Simcoe at Jackson Point for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (1960 – 2011) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term period (1960 - 2011) 219.2

219.1

219.0

218.9

218.8 Water level [mAMSL] level Water

218.7

218.6

218.5

2.1.3.2 Water Temperature

Water temperatures in Lake Simcoe at the station C1 - Cook's Bay (EC Station ID 20133162) were measured in depths ranging from 0.1 m to 3.2 m. The data from the depth of 1 m were used in the analysis presented in this report; the data at this depth are closest to the average water temperature of the 0.1 to 3.2 m depth range and are also close to the depth of river water temperature observations.

Figure 2.14 shows the mean monthly, maximum and minimum daily water temperatures at the station C1 (EC Station ID 20133162) calculated from the weekly or bi-weekly data measurements. There were no observations during the period from December to March. The highest water temperature of 25.3°C was measured on July 11, 2005.

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Figure 2.14: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Daily Water Temperatures in Lake Simcoe at Station C1 (EC Station ID 20133162) for the Long-term Period of 2002-2011

Average Maximum Minimum 30

25 22.7 21.9

20 19.6 18.7

12.7 11.9 Water temperature [oC] temperature Water

7.1 6.3

0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Since continuous water temperature measurements were not available for Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe, an interpolation algorithm was developed to disaggregate the available water temperatures into daily water temperature time series that could be used as inputs to the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models. The algorithm was based on the midpoint method.

The interpolated daily water temperatures at station C1 are presented on Figure 2.15. Since there are no measurements during the winter at station C1, the water temperatures in the East Holland River at Holland Landing were used to define the winter water temperatures at station C1 due to the good relationship between the two data series as shown on Figure 2.16.

It is noted that back-filling the missing winter water temperatures at the Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe model boundary has very little potential effects on the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 results given that the Water Reclamation Centre discharge is located more than 15 kilometres (km) upstream of the lake.

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Figure 2.15: Daily Water Temperatures in Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe at Station C1 (EC Station ID 20133162) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ temperature Water

10 Holland Landing Holland Landing Water Water Temperature Temperature

0 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

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Figure 2.16: Weekly/Bi-weekly Water Temperature in Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe at Station C1 (EC Station ID 20133162) for the Period October 12, 2010 – November 26, 2011 and Corresponding Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River at Holland Landing

C1 - Cook's Bay East Holland River at Holland Landing 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ temperature Water

0 10/08/2010 29/09/2010 18/11/2010 07/01/2011 26/02/2011 17/04/2011 06/06/2011 26/07/2011 14/09/2011 03/11/2011 23/12/2011

Figure 2.17 shows a comparison of the mean monthly water temperatures in Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe for the simulation period with the long-term means. The simulation period mean monthly water temperatures are similar to the long-term period water temperatures, with the exception of September 2011 when the mean water temperature was 2.6°C lower than the long-term value.

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Figure 2.17: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures at C1 Station (EC Station ID 20133162) for Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2002-2011) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term Period (2002 - 2011) 25

10 Water temperature [oC] temperature Water

2.2 Effluent Characterization

This section provides a brief summary of the Water Reclamation Centre effluent discharge rates and temperatures. A complete and detailed characterization of the Water Reclamation Centre effluent is provided in the assimilative capacity study report (CRA et al., 2012).

2.2.1 Flow Rates

A detailed analysis of growth projections in the UYSS service area to the Year 2031 was completed to establish the average and peak design capacity of the Water Reclamation Centre. The Water Reclamation Centre design capacity flows are presented in Table 2.3.

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Table 2.3: Water Reclamation Centre (WRC) Design Flow Conditions

WRC Design Condition Flow (MLD) Annual Average Day Flow (AADF) 40 Peak Month Flow 52 Peak Day Flow 80

The Water Reclamation Centre would have flow balancing tanks prior to secondary treatment that would equalize the peak hour flow to the peak day flow of 80 million Litres per day (MLD) projected to occur in 2031. Therefore, the maximum day effluent flow from the Water Reclamation Centre would effectively be limited to 80 MLD by the equalization of influent peak hour flows in the flow balancing tanks.

For modelling purposes, a monthly average discharge was constructed ranging from a maximum month flow of 52 MLD (1.3 of AADF) occurring in the typical wet weather months of March/April to a minimum month flow of 33 MLD (0.82 of AADF) – again projected for 2031. This distribution was based on the seasonal variability of wastewater flow conditions that typically occurs in Ontario in relation to wet weather periods and dry weather periods. Since some variation in wastewater flow conditions is influenced by the extent of infiltration/inflow in the collection system, the length and complexity of the collection system as well as the specific climatic conditions that occur in any year would affect actual monthly average wastewater flow variations. Figure 2.18 depicts the monthly variation in the Water Reclamation Centre discharge.

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Figure 2.18: Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Monthly Flow Rates

52 52

43 41 40 40 39 38 37 37 35 34 33

30 Flow rate [MLD]

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2.2.2 Water Temperature

Effluent wastewater temperatures for the Water Reclamation Centre discharge were developed by examining available historical data for existing wastewater treatment facilities including three facilities close to the UYSS EA study area and potential alternative Water Reclamation Centre site locations (i.e., upper York Region). Two of these facilities, Keswick WPCP and Mount Albert WPCP, are located in York Region. The third facility is the Bradford WPCP located in the Town of West Gwillimbury.

The 4-year average of median monthly influent temperatures at the Mount Albert WPCP was assumed as most representative of conditions anticipated for the Water Reclamation Centre. No water temperature change was assumed through the Water Reclamation Centre treatment processes.

Figure 2.19 provides a comparison of the East Holland River mean monthly water temperatures with the mean monthly water temperatures assumed for the Water Reclamation Centre

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA discharge. The data presented in the figure suggest that the effluent would be warmer than the ambient water temperatures during the period of October to April and cooler than the ambient water temperatures during the period of May to September, providing a moderating effect on water temperature during the low flow, high water temperature receiver conditions. The figure also shows that the largest differences between the effluent and ambient water temperatures are likely to be during the winter period when the effluent temperatures are more than 10°C higher than the ambient water temperatures.

Figure 2.19: Mean Monthly Ambient and Effluent Water Temperatures

East Holland River WRC Effluent 25

20 C]

o 15

10 Water temperature [ temperature Water

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2.3 Meteorological data

Limited meteorological data were available within the Holland River watershed for the numerical modelling. Global solar radiation and precipitation data were obtained from Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) stations Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106) and Newmarket (ID LS0108). The remaining data (wind speed and direction, air temperature, dew point, relative

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Table 2.4 summarizes the meteorological data required for the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models and the stations used to obtain these data. The locations of the stations are presented on Figure 2.20. The meteorological parameters in Table 2.4 have different record periods. Global solar radiation has the shortest period of record and cloud cover has the longest period of record.

The period from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2012 was selected for analyzing long-term trends in the data. Except for the global solar radiation, all the other meteorological parameters have data coverage for this period. The long-term monthly average global solar radiation data were obtained from the Climate Normals & Averages for the period 1971 to 2000 at the EC station Toronto (ID 6158350).

Table 2.4: Meteorological Parameters

Parameter Station Station Time Period of Record ID interval Wind speed [km/h] Egbert CS 611E001 Hourly Aug 1/00-Dec 31/12 Wind direction Egbert CS 611E001 Hourly Aug 1/00-Dec 31/12 [Degrees] Dry temperature [°C] Egbert CS 611E001 Hourly Aug 1/00-Dec 31/12 Relative humidity [%] Egbert CS 611E001 Hourly Aug 1/00-Dec 31/12 Dew point temperature Egbert CS 611E001 Hourly Aug 1/00-Dec 31/12 [oC] Atmospheric pressure Egbert CS 611E001 Hourly Aug 1/00-Dec 31/12 [kPa] Precipitation [mm] LSRCA Newmarket LS0108 < 1 hour Feb 18/99-May 13/12 Global solar Scanlon2 LSEMS106 10-minute Jan 5/10-Apr 3/12 radiation[W/m2] Global solar Toronto 6158350 Monthly average 1971-2000 radiation[MJ/m2] Cloud cover [-] Toronto Buttonville 615HMAK Hourly Jan 1/87-Dec 31/12 Airport

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Figure 2.20: Location of Meteorological Stations Utilized

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2.3.1 Wind Speed and Direction

Wind speed is measured in nautical miles per hour and converted to kilometres per hour. A zero value means no wind. Wind direction is typically recorded to the nearest ten degrees. Wind directions are recorded as "from" direction, not "to" direction; e.g., a wind from the east is defined as 90 degrees and from west as 270 degrees. The CE-QUAL-W2 model uses this system for defining wind direction. However, in the EFDC model, directions are defined as "to" direction; therefore, the wind directions need to be converted.

Hourly wind speed and direction data are available at the EC station Egbert CS (ID 611E001). The wind rose maps for the long-term and simulation periods are shown on Figure 2.21 and Figure 2.22, respectively. For the long-term period, the dominant wind direction is from the northwest, with maximum speeds around 10 metres per second (m/s). The simulation period shows similar trends, with the same direction of dominant winds and maximum wind speeds.

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Figure 2.21: Wind Speed and Direction at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) Station for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012

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Figure 2.22: Wind Speed and Direction at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012

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2.3.2 Air Temperature

Air temperatures measured at EC stations are dry bulb temperatures unless indicated otherwise. Figure 2.23 shows mean monthly and maximum and minimum hourly air temperatures for the long-term period 2001-2012 calculated from hourly air temperatures measured at the EC station Egbert CS (ID 611E001). The highest mean monthly air temperatures occur in July and August, and the lowest in January and February. The maximum and minimum hourly air temperatures measured during the long-term period were 36.6°C (on August 8, 2001, at 14:00) and -31.0°C (on January 10, 2004, at 7:00), respectively. The mean annual air temperature was 7.3°C.

Figure 2.23: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Air Temperature at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012

Average Maximum Minimum 40

20.4 19.5 20 17.7 15.4 12.2

10 8.7 6.2 3.3

0 -0.7 -3.0 -6.5 -5.8 Air dry temperature [oC] -10

-20

-30

-40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Figure 2.24 depicts the hourly air temperature time series for the simulation period (October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012). The maximum and minimum air temperatures during this period were 34.2°C (on July 20, 2011, at 15:00) and -26.7°C (on January 23, 2011, at 21:00), respectively.

Figure 2.24: Hourly Air Temperatures at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012

20 C] o 10

0 Air temperature [

-10

-20

-30 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

Figure 2.25 provides a comparison of the mean monthly air temperatures obtained for the simulation and long-term periods. Except for March 2012, the air temperatures of the simulation period are very representative of the long-term period. In March 2012, the mean monthly air temperature was 6.3°C warmer than the long-term mean. The same trend was also noted in water temperatures in the East Holland River (see Figure 2.7).

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Figure 2.25: Mean Monthly Air Temperatures at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and the Long-term (2001-2012) Periods Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term period(2001 - 2012) 25

10 C] o

5 Air temperature [ 0

-5

-10

-15

2.3.3 Dew Point and Relative Humidity

The dew point is the temperature below which the water vapour in a volume of humid air at a constant barometric pressure would condense into liquid water.

Hourly dew point data were not available within the study area. The closest station with hourly dew point data is EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001). There were missing values in the hourly record; these were filled using the Magnus formula (Bolton, 1980):

= + Equation (2.1) 푅퐻 푏푇 100 퐶+푇 훾 =푙푛 Equation (2.2) 푐훾

푇푑푝 푏− 훾

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Where:

. RH = relative humidity [%] . T = air temperature [oC] . b = constant 17.67 . c = constant 243.5 . = calculated dew point temperature

푇푑푝 Mean monthly and maximum and minimum hourly dew points for the long-term period 2001-2012 are presented on Figure 2.26. The maximum and minimum values are 26.2°C and -34.3°C, respectively, and the mean annual value is 3.6°C. As with the air temperature data, the highest mean monthly values occur in July and August, and the lowest mean monthly values occur in January and February.

Figure 2.26: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Dew Point at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012

Average Maximum Minimum 30

20 15.6 15.2 13.0 11.9 10 6.9 5.7

0.5 0.8 0 C] o

-4.6 -4.9

Dew point [ Dew point -10 -8.6 -8.5

-20

-30

-40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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The time series used in the simulation period are plotted on Figure 2.27. The maximum and minimum observed values were 23.8°C (July 21, 2011, at 18:00) and -29.5°C (January 23, 2011, at 21:00), respectively.

Figure 2.27: Hourly Dew Point Data at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012

0 C] o

Dew point [ Dew point -10

-20

-30

-40 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

Figure 2.28 provides a comparison of the mean monthly dew point values calculated from hourly dew point data at the EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the simulation and long-term periods. During the winter period of 2010-2011, the simulation period had lower dew point values than the long-term period while the winter period of 2011-2012 showed higher values than the long-term means.

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Figure 2.28: Mean Monthly Dew Point Data at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001-2012) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term Period (2001-2012) 20

C] 5 o

Dew point [ Dew point 0

-5

-10

-15

The relative humidity of an air-water mixture is defined as the ratio of the partial pressure of water vapour to the saturated water vapour pressure at a prescribed temperature.

Figure 2.29 shows the mean monthly, maximum and minimum hourly relative humidity data at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the long-term period of 2001 to 2012. The range of the relative humidity is 14 percent to 100 percent, with a mean value of 80 percent. The mean monthly values range from 71.1 percent in April to 87.5 percent in December.

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Figure 2.29: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Relative Humidity at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012

Average Maximum Minimum 100

90 88 85 85 84 82 82 79 80 77 77 77 73 71 70

Relative humidity [%] 40

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 2.30 shows the frequency of relative humidity at the EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the simulation period October 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012. Relative humidity ranges of 80 percent to 90 percent and 90 percent to100 percent have the highest frequency of occurrence.

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Figure 2.30: Frequency of Hourly Relative Humidity at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2011 – March 31, 2012

26.7 26.6

20 19.4

Frequency [%] 11.8

10 8.1

4.8 5

2.1

0.5 0.0 0 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 Relative Humidity [%]

Figure 2.31 provides a comparison of the mean monthly relative humidity at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the simulation and long-term periods. The simulation period has slightly lower relative humidity in the winters of 2010 - 2011 and 2011 - 2012.

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Figure 2.31: Mean Monthly Relative Humidity at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2012) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term Period (2001-2012) 100

40 Relative humidity [%]

2.3.4 Atmospheric Pressure

Atmospheric pressure is the force per unit area exerted by the atmosphere as a consequence of the mass of air in a vertical column from the observing station elevation to the top of atmosphere. Figure 2.32 shows the distribution of mean monthly, maximum and minimum hourly atmospheric pressure at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the long-term period (2001 - 2012).

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Figure 2.32: Mean Monthly, Maximum and Minimum Hourly Atmospheric Pressure at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012

Average Maximum Minimum 102

100

98.8 98.9 98.7 98.6 98.7 98.6 98.7 98.6 98.6 98.7 98.7 98.6

96 Atmospheric ppressure [kPa] Atmospheric 94

90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 2.33 presents the atmospheric pressure data for the simulation period. The data vary between 95.4 kPa (on March 3, 2012, at 2:00) and 100.7 kPa (on March 3, 2011, at 12:00).

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Figure 2.33 Hourly Atmospheric Pressure at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012

101

100

98 Atmospheric pressure [kPa] Atmospheric 97

95 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

Figure 2.34 provides a comparison of the mean monthly atmospheric pressure for the simulation and long-term periods at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001). The atmospheric pressure data are very close to the long-term means.

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Figure 2.34 Mean Monthly Atmospheric Pressure at EC Station Egbert CS (ID 611E001) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2012) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term Period (2001-2012) 102

100

96 Atmospheric pressure [kPa] Atmospheric 94

2.3.5 Precipitation

Long-term precipitation data were obtained from the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) with mixed daily and sub-hourly frequencies. The data for the simulation period October 2010 to March 2012 have 10-minute frequencies, and were aggregated to hourly data to be used with other meteorological parameters in the modelling.

Figure 2.35 shows the mean, maximum, and minimum monthly precipitation at the LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the long-term period 2001 to 2012. Since a complete record of 2012 precipitation values was not available at the time of this analysis, the available precipitation data in 2012 were not included in the long-term calculation. The maximum monthly precipitation (215.3 mm) was measured in September. The maximum daily precipitation was

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107.8 mm, measured on September 13, 2006. Winter months January, February, and March have lower monthly precipitation totals than the other months while September has the highest mean monthly precipitation.

Figure 2.35: Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Monthly Precipitation at LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2011

Average Minimum Maximum 250

200

150

Precipitation [mm] 100

71.7 64.1 64.7 60.2 55.0 54.7 52.3 52.4 49.9 50 42.8 38.0 30.2

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

The hourly precipitation at LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the simulation period is presented on Figure 2.36. The maximum hourly precipitation of 19.6 mm occurred on August 9, 2011, at 11:00.

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Figure 2.36: Hourly Precipitation at LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012

Precipitation [mm] 10

0 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

Figure 2.37 provides a comparison of the mean monthly precipitation totals at the LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the simulation and long-term periods. There are large differences between the values due to natural variability in precipitation.

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Figure 2.37: Mean Monthly Precipitation at LSRCA Station Newmarket (ID LS0108) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2011) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term period(2001 - 2010) 120

100

60 Precipitation [mm]

2.3.6 Global Solar Radiation

Solar radiation is the measurement of radiant energy from the sun on a horizontal surface. Shortwave solar radiation can be separated into two components: direct and diffuse. The direct component is the portion of radiation that reaches the earth's surface in relatively parallel beams, while the diffuse radiation is the portion of radiation that has been scattered by gas molecules and suspended particles in the atmosphere and reaches the earth's surface from multiple directions. The summation of direct and diffuse solar radiation is called global solar radiation, or total incident shortwave solar radiation. The standard metric unit of radiation measurement is the Mega Joule per square metre (MJ/m2).

There were no long-term daily global solar radiation monitoring data available at the time of this analysis. The EC Climate Normals & Averages 1971-2000 (Environment Canada, 2012a) provide long-term global solar radiation data for major climate stations in Canada. The

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EC Station Toronto (ID 6158350) was the closest Climate Normals & Averages station to the study area. Figure 2.38 shows the mean monthly global solar radiation at this station. The seasonal distribution of global solar radiation has a unimodal character with maximum in summer and minimum in winter.

Figure 2.38: Mean Monthly Global Solar Radiation at EC Station Toronto (ID 6158350) for the Long-term Period 1971 – 2000

300

251.5 252.9 250

223.8 215.8

200 184.5

161.3

150 141.4 Solar radiation [W/m2] 105.8 100 93.9

57.4 56.6 50 45.0

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Global solar radiation measurements at 15-minute intervals were available for the period of January 5, 2011 to April 4, 2012 at a new Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) Station Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106), which is located about 1 kilometre (km) northeast of the original Scanlon station. The 15-minute data were aggregated to hourly data, as required by the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models.

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The data for the portion of the simulation period not covered by the available data (October 1, 2010 to January 5, 2011) were interpolated based on:

a) monthly global solar radiation from Canadian Climate Normals & Averages 1971 - 2000 at EC Station Toronto (ID 6158350), and b) the global solar radiation at the station Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106)

The missing values were interpolated using the following equation:

= , Equation (2.3) 푖 푥 푑푖 푇표푡Where1 :푇표푡 2

= hourly global solar radiation = hourly global solar radiation at Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106) 푖 푥 1 = monthly global solar radiation for the period October 2010 -January 2011 푑푖 2 = monthly global solar radiation for the period October 2011 -January 2012 푇표푡 The hourly푇표푡 global solar radiation for the simulation period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 is presented on Figure 2.39. The data range from zero (at night) to the peak hourly value of 988.3 Watt per square metre (W/m2), which occurred on June 2, 2011, at 11:00.

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Figure 2.39: Hourly Global Solar Radiation at LSRCA Station Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

Solar radition [W/m2] radition Solar 400

300

200

100

0 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 14/09/2011 23/12/2011 01/04/2012 10/07/2012

Figure 2.40 provides a comparison of the mean monthly global solar radiation for the simulation (at LSRCA Station Scanlon2, ID LSEMS06) and long-term (at EC Station Toronto, ID 6158350) periods. In October, November, and December 2010, the values for the two periods were the same as a result of the interpolation algorithm. Other months have very close global solar radiation values.

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Figure 2.40: Mean Monthly Global Solar Radiation at LSRCA Station Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and at EC Station Toronto (ID 6158350) for the Long-term (1971 - 2000) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term period(2001 - 2012) 300

250

200

150 Solar radiation [W/m2]

100

2.3.7 Cloud Cover

Cloud cover refers to the fraction of the sky obscured by clouds when observed from a particular location. In meteorological stations, they are usually reported as weather, using descriptive words such as "rain", "snow", "drizzle", "clear", etc. These descriptors need to be converted to quantitative values in numerical models.

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The following conversion rule was applied to quantify the cloud cover (Environment Canada, 2012b) (Tetra Tech, 2009):

. Clear = 0 . Mainly clear = 0.25 . Mostly cloudy = 0.75 . Cloudy = 1 . All others = 0.9

Figure 2.41 shows the distribution of mean, maximum, and minimum cloud cover at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK) for the long-term period (2001-2012). In general, summer months July, August, and September have lower cloud cover than other months of the year.

Figure 2.41: Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Cloud Cover at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK) for the Long-term Period 2001 - 2012

Average Minimum Maximum 1.0

0.9

0.8 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.7 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.6 0.57 0.57 ] - 0.53 0.51 0.50 0.5 Cloud cover [ cover Cloud 0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Figure 2.42 presents the cloud cover data for the simulation period. The "mostly cloudy" category is most frequent, with occurrence of 25 percent. The "clear" category is the least frequent, with occurrence of 14 percent.

Figure 2.42: Hourly Cloud Cover Occurrence at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK) for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012

25 25

23 21

15 14 Cloud cover frequency cover [%] Cloud

0 Clear Mainly Clear Mostly Cloudy Cloudy All Others

Figure 2.43 provides a comparison of the mean monthly cloud cover for the simulation and long-term periods at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK). The cloud cover values during the simulation period are very close to the long-term means, with a major difference in July 2011, when the simulation period had less cloud cover than the long-term period.

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Figure 2.43: Mean Monthly Cloud Cover at EC Station Toronto Buttonville Airport (ID 615HMAK) for the Simulation (October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012) and Long-term (2001 - 2012) Periods

Simulation Period (October 1 2010 - March 31 2012) Long-term period(2001 - 2012) 0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

Cloud cover Cloud 0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

2.4 CRA Field Monitoring Data

CRA conducted field monitoring of water level, flow velocity, and water temperature at various locations across the East Holland River on December 1 and 8, 2011. The data collected were used for spatial calibration and validation of the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models. Additionally, CRA has been measuring continuous hourly water temperature immediately downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location since April 18, 2012, and ice thickness at three locations across the East Holland River in the winter 2012 - 2013, which were used for temporal calibration of the models. The field monitoring locations within the study area used in the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models calibration and validation are shown on Figure 2.44.

The measurement values on December 1 and 8, 2011 are summarized in Table 2.5. The maximum and minimum water levels were 218.941 m and 218.742 m, respectively; the maximum and minimum average velocities were 0.428 metres per second (m/s) and 0.010 m/s,

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Figure 2.44: CRA Field Test Monitoring Locations within the Study Area on December 1 and 8, 2011 Used in the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 Models Calibration and Validation

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Table 2.5: CRA Field Test Monitoring of the East Holland River on December 1 and 8, 2011 Used in the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 Models Calibration and Validation

Average Average Location Water Time on WSE Observed Temp Time on WSE Observed Temp ID Body 01/12/2011 [MASL] Velocity [m/s]* [°C]** 08/12/2011 [MASL] Velocity [m/s]* [°C]** SW03TM EHR 10:40 218.885 0.048 4.5 0:00 - - 2.4 SW03BTM EHR 10:45 4.5 9:20 - 0.120 2.4 SW03CTM EHR - 9:50 - 0.050 2.6 SW05TM EHR 9:20 218.941 0.393 3.6 - - 2.8 SW06TM EHR 10:10 218.904 0.397 3.6 9:15 218.855 0.140 2.7 SW07TM EHR 11:25 218.882 0.428 3.7 10:15 218.849 0.170 2.6 SW08TM EHR 11:30 218.853 0.390 3.8 11:10 - 0.200 2.8 SW09TM EHR 12:05 218.833 0.330 3.9 11:40 - 0.140 2.9 SW10TM EHR 12:30 218.804 0.252 4.0 12:10 - 0.120 2.9 SW11CM EHR 13:00 218.849 0.223 4.2 12:35 - 0.130 3.1 SW12TM EHR 13:15 218.813 0.235 4.2 13:00 218.770 0.110 2.9 SW13TM EHR 14:15 218.813 0.072 4.0 14:20 - 0.100 3.0 SW14CM EHR 14:30 218.787 0.091 4.0 14:50 - 0.010 2.9 SW16TM EHR 15:15 218.742 0.137 3.7 15:50 218.801 0.040 2.7 SW17CM EHR 15:50 - 0.110 3.6 16:10 - 0.010 2.9 SW18TM EHR Mouth 16:20 - 0.083 3.6 - - 2.7 Note: *average measured velocity at representative mid-point, 40% depth location **river surface water temperature

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Continuous hourly water temperatures were monitored at location SW3 (on Figure 2.44). The data are plotted on Figure 2.45. The maximum and minimum water temperature were 27.4oC (on July 6, 2012) and 0.2oC (on February 14, 2013), respectively.

Figure 2.45: CRA Field Test Monitoring of Water Temperature from April 8, 2012 to March 31, 2013 Used in the EFDC Model Temporal Calibration

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ temperature Water

0 11/02/2012 01/04/2012 21/05/2012 10/07/2012 29/08/2012 18/10/2012 07/12/2012 26/01/2013 17/03/2013 06/05/2013 25/06/2013

Table 2.6 summarizes the CRA ice thickness measurements. The maximum ice thickness was 372 mm (measured at SW40 Ravenshoe on March 4, 2013).

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Table 2.6: CRA Field Test Monitoring of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River in 2012 and 2013 Used in CE-QUAL-W2 Model Temporal Calibration

Ice Thickness [mm] Date SW41 SW33 SW40 (Bradford St.) (Queensville) (Ravenshoe) 07/12/2012 5 2 - 03/01/2013 90 95 146 13/02/2013 183 223 210 04/03/2013 229 326 372 18/03/2013 0 5 80 04/04/2013 0 0 0 18/04/2013 - - 0

The Holland Landing Water Pollution Control Plant is a seasonal lagoon system providing treatment of domestic sewage in the Town of East Gwillimbury. The lagoons are operated under Certificate of Approval No. 9156-7R5LKN (June 23, 2009) at the rated capacity of 1,364 cubic metres per day, currently discharging seasonally to the East Holland River at Holland Landing. The Holland Landing lagoons are a seasonal discharge lagoon system, with spring discharge commencing after April 1 and terminating no later than June 30; and fall discharge commencing not earlier than September 15 and terminating no later than December 15.

The relative magnitude of the Holland Landing discharge to the East Holland River flow regime can be estimated based on the rated plant capacity and the assumption of continuous and constant discharge during the two discharge periods. Based on this simplification, the Holland Landing lagoon discharge of 2.7 million Litres per day (MLD) during the six month discharge periods in spring and fall represents approximately 2 percent of the long-term mean daily flow in the East Holland River of 117 MLD. Given the small proportional flow contribution from the Holland Landing lagoon discharge, its flows and water temperature were used for the EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models spatial calibration of water surface elevation, flow velocity, and water temperature.

Section 3.0 Thermal Model Implementation

3.1 Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) Model

The EFDC model was developed at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. The model has been applied to Virginia's James and York River estuaries and to the entire Chesapeake Bay estuarine system. It is currently used in a wide range of studies, including simulation of power

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The model solves the 3-dimensional (3D), vertically hydrostatic, free surface, turbulent averaged equations of motion for a variable density fluid. It uses a stretched or sigma vertical coordinate and Cartesian or curvilinear, orthogonal horizontal coordinates. Dynamically coupled transport equations for turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent length scale, salinity, and water temperature are also solved in the model.

EFDC simulates heat transfer both vertically and horizontally. In the vertical direction, air-water heat exchange consists of five components: solar radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat exchange, sensible heat exchange, and bed heat exchange. Of these components, the upward heat exchange includes latent heat (heat loss due to evaporation), sensible heat (when air temperature is lower than water temperature), longwave radiation (net longwave radiation from atmosphere and water surface), and bed heat (when bed temperature is higher than water temperature). The downward heat exchange includes solar heat (incident short-wave radiation), sensible heat (when air temperature is higher than water temperature), and bed heat (when bed temperature is lower than water temperature).

In the lateral direction, e.g., along a river, heat is transferred in the form of convection, including conduction and advection. Conduction happens due to the temperature difference between locations, and advection is a phenomenon of heat transfer along with bulk water flow.

Four sub-thermal models are available in the EFDC_Explorer hydrodynamics module to simulate surface heat exchange:

1. Full Heat Balance: full surface and internal heat transfer 2. External Equilibrium Temperature: transient equilibrium surface heat transfer calculation using external equilibrium temperature and heat exchange 3. Constant Equilibrium: equilibrium surface heat transfer calculation using constant equilibrium temperature and heat exchange 4. Equilibrium Temperature (CE-QUAL-W2 Method): CE-QUAL-W2 model uses two methods for thermal modelling term-by-term or equilibrium temperature. Although the term-by-term method is theoretically more advanced, equilibrium temperatures have consistently given better results in many tested systems (Cole and Wells, 2011) thus chosen as the EFDC sub-thermal module

The EFDC_Explorer 6.0, developed by Dynamic Solutions-International (DSI), was used in this study to build and execute the EFDC model. The EFDC_Explorer is a graphical user interface to EFDC that streamlines model pre-processing, execution, and post-processing, and extends EFDC by adding more functionalities such as parallel computing to significantly speed up simulation.

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The EFDC model setup includes the following three steps:

a) grid generation and bathymetry interpolation, which defines the model domain area and sets the bottom elevation values for each cell b) boundary setup, which defines the external forces that drive the model c) parameters setup, which configures the properties of water in the study area, and various computational options

3.1.1 Model Setup

3.1.1.1 Grid Generation and Bathymetry Interpolation

Two types of modelling grid are supported in the EFDC model, curvilinear (quadrilateral shape) and Cartesian grid (square shape). Curvilinear grid can well represent curved and bent shorelines, which is the case in this study area. The Cartesian grid can also approach curved shorelines with very small cell size, but greatly increases model computational time. The curvilinear grid was selected.

The utility RGFGRID, distributed with Delft3d, was used to create and modify the curvilinear grid. Two steps are required to generate curvilinear grid with RGFGRID:

a) create splines, which form the shoreline boundary b) set the number of cells desired in the model domain, defined by four splines

The EFDC model grid built for this study area (Figure 3.1) has 1,028 cells, and the cell areas vary from 31 m2 to 14,019 m2 with average cell size of 1,639 m2. Vertically, each cell was divided into two layers of equal height, resulting in 2,056 grid cells.

The river bathymetry surface was developed for the comprehensive assimilative capacity study (CRA et al., 2012), and was also used for the EFDC modeling. The bathymetry data were imported into EFDC_Explorer and interpolated with the option Average all Z's in Cell to assign bottom elevations to the grid cells. The resulting channel bottom elevations are displayed on Figure 3.2.

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Figure 3.1: EFDC Model Grid

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Figure 3.2: EFDC Model Bathymetry

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3.1.1.2 Model Boundaries

To drive the EFDC model, boundary conditions were defined at four physical boundaries of the model: the East Holland River at Holland Landing, the West Holland River at the confluence with the East Holland River, Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe, and the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location.

In the East Holland River at Holland Landing, flows enter the model domain. The time series of daily flows, characterized in Section 2.1.1.1, were used to define the flow boundary. Along with the flows, daily water temperatures, compiled from the 30-minute data (see Section 2.1.1.2) were used to characterize this model boundary.

There were no flow measurements in the West Holland River at the confluence with the East Holland River. A HEC-HMS model (CRA, 2012) was constructed to characterize the daily flows at this boundary. There were also no water temperature data at the time of this study, and they were assumed to be the same as the time series in the East Holland River at Holland Landing (see Section 2.1.1.2).

At the mouth of the river at Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe (see Section 2.1.3), a head boundary defined the daily variation of water surface levels. Since there were no continuous water temperature data available at the EC Station C1 – Cook's Bay (ID 20133162), a midpoint method was used to generate daily water temperature values.

Flow and water temperature boundaries were defined at the proposed Queensville Sideroad discharge location (see Section 2.2). These boundaries were deactivated for scenarios without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge and activated for scenarios with the discharge. The definition of the Water Reclamation Centre effluent flows and water temperatures is described in Section 2.2.

Meteorological parameters utilized as an atmospheric link in the water temperature algorithm consisted of wind speed and direction, air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, global solar radiation, and cloud cover. No single station included this entire set of parameters, thus multiple climate stations were investigated to compile hourly data for each parameter. Details can be found in Section 2.3.

Two initial conditions, initial water surface elevation and water temperature of the domain were defined for initializing the model. The initial water surface elevation was set to a constant of 221 metres Above Mean Sea Level (MASL) to ensure that every cell starts wet. Initial water temperatures of the cells were set to 14.2°C, which was the water temperature at Holland Landing at the beginning of the simulation (October 1, 2010). The EFDC model was run with a computational time step of 1 second.

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3.1.1.3 Model Parameters

Table 3.1 lists the key EFDC model parameters. Values of some parameters were determined by model calibration; for other parameters, model default values were used.

Table 3.1: Key EFDC Model Parameter Values

Parameter Unit Value Roughness height [m] * Horizontal eddy viscosity [m2/s] * Thermal thickness of bed [m] ** Initial bed temperature [°C] ** Heat transfer coefficient between bed and water column [W/m2/°C] ** Relative humidity or wet bulb temperature [-] Relative humidity Use computed solar radiation to overwrite input solar [-] No Shading factor [-] 1 Wind shelter coefficient [-] 1 Anemometer height [m] 10 Surface heat exchange algorithm [-] Equilibrium Internally compute evaporation [-] Yes Latitude [decimal] 44.166 Longitude [decimal] -79.516 Output frequency [hour] 1 Notes: * Hydrodynamic calibration parameter ** Water temperature calibration parameter

Roughness height describes the roughness (friction) of the river channel. In general, increasing this parameter decreases flow velocity and increases water surface elevation; and decreasing this parameter increases the flow velocity and decreases the water surface elevation. Eddy viscosity models the transfer of momentum caused by turbulent eddies in a manner similar to the concept molecular viscosity in momentum transfer caused by molecular diffusion. It is also commonly called turbulent viscosity. Increasing this value typically decreases flow velocity and increases water surface elevation, and decreasing the value increases flow velocity and decreases water surface elevation.

There were no directly measured data for thermal thickness of bed. Initial bed temperature refers to the bed temperature at the beginning of the simulation. Heat transfer coefficient between bed and water column characterizes the efficiency of heat transfer at the interface between sediment bed and water column. These parameters were estimated during model calibration.

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The EFDC model can accept either relative humidity or wet bulb temperature as input. Relative humidity is a common parameter measured by most EC climate stations, e.g., EC Station Egbert has long-term records dating back to 1986. In contrast, no wet bulb temperature data were available within the study area; therefore, the relative humidity was used as model input. Global solar radiation can be input or computed internally using the EFDC model. This parameter has been measured at the LSRCA Station Scanlon2 (ID LSEMS106) from January 5, 2011 to present. Thus, the EFDC model used the measurements instead of the internal calculation. Shading factor describes the effect of shades (including topographic and vegetative) on global solar radiation. A factor of 1 indicates no shade, and 0 means complete shading of global solar radiation.

Observed wind speed and direction data were used as inputs to the model. In EFDC, wind sheltering coefficient accounts for the effect of surrounding terrain on sheltering a water body from winds. A value of 1 indicates no sheltering effect; a value close to 0 would diminish the effect of wind on hydrodynamic modeling. Since the path from climate station Egbert CS (data source of wind speed and direction) to the study area is open terrain, a constant value 1 (i.e., no adjustment to wind data) was applied in the EFDC model.

For the surface heat exchange calculation, equilibrium temperature was chosen. It was calculated from the CE-QUAL-W2 equilibrium temperature algorithm. No daily (or finer) evaporation data were available for the study area; therefore, they were calculated internally by EFDC.

The latitude and longitude parameters in the EFDC model were selected as the coordinates of the confluence of the West and East Holland River.

The hourly simulation results were used for sensitivity analysis and model calibration. Once the model was calibrated, the hourly model outputs were converted to daily data used to study the temporal and spatial variations of water temperature in the study area.

3.1.1.4 Sensitivity Analysis

A sensitivity analysis was completed for two water temperature parameters during the simulation period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012. Three scenarios were designed for the sensitivity analysis: base scenario, scenario L (50 percent of the base scenario value), and U (150 percent of the base scenario value). Scenarios L and U changed base scenario parameters one at a time. The sensitivity analysis parameters are summarized in Table 3.2.

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Table 3.2: EFDC Model Parameters for Sensitivity Analysis

Base Scenario Scenario Parameter Scenario L U Thermal thickness of bed [m] 0.5 0.25 0.75 Heat transfer coefficient between bed/water column [W/m2/°C] 0.3 0.15 0.45

The sensitivity analysis results were assessed for the daily maximum water temperatures at the location 50 m downstream of the Queensville Sideroad during the simulation period. Table 3.3 lists the sensitivity analysis results. By decreasing thermal thickness of the bed by 50 percent, the maximum water temperature increased by 0.103°C; by increasing this parameter by 50 percent, the maximum water temperature decreased by 0.041°C. This is because maximum water temperature occurs in the summer, when the water column is heating the sediment bed; a thinner bed has smaller heat storage capacity, thus requiring less heat transferred into the bed, leading to higher water temperature. A thicker bed corresponds to larger heat storage capacity and requires more heat stored into the bed, which lowers the water temperature.

Higher heat transfer coefficient means quicker heat transfer between sediment bed and water column. In the summer, heat transfers from water column to bed; a quicker transfer rate would lower water temperature. On the other hand, a slower transfer rate would elevate water temperature. This phenomenon was observed in heat transfer coefficient between bed/water column – scenarios L and U (see Table 3.3).

Table 3.3: EFDC Model Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Results

Change in Maximum Water Temperature from the Base Parameter Scenario Thermal thickness of bed – Scenario L[°C] 0.103 Thermal thickness of bed – Scenario U[°C] -0.041 Heat transfer coefficient between bed/water column – Scenario L[°C] 0.063 Heat transfer coefficient between bed/water column – Scenario U [°C] -0.070

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3.1.2 Model Calibration and Validation

Prior to using the EFDC model for water temperature modelling, hydrodynamic responses, specifically water surface elevations and flow velocities were spatially calibrated to data observed in the field on December 1, 2011 and December 8, 2011. Table 3.4 summarizes the data used as boundary conditions for the model calibration. The simulation period was November 11, 2011 to December 10, 2011 to cover the two field monitoring events.

Furthermore, the EFDC model was temporally calibrated to continuous hourly water temperature measurements at location SW33 (Queensville) for the period April 8, 2013 – March 31, 2013. For the parameters in Table 3.4, no flow rate/water temperature data were available at the Holland Landing lagoon discharge for the simulation period, and this boundary was deactivated; the frequencies of the other sub-daily parameters were aggregated to daily.

Table 3.4: EFDC Model Hydrodynamic Calibration Boundary Conditions

Location Parameter Data source Frequency East Holland River at Holland Flow rate East Holland River at Hourly Landing Holland Landing (WRC Station ID 02EC009) Confluence of the West and Flow rate HEC-HMS model Hourly East Holland Rivers (CRA, 2012) Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe Water Surface Lake Simcoe at Jackson Daily Elevations Point Holland Landing lagoon Flow rate/water Measured data Hourly Discharge temperature East Holland River at Holland Water temperature East Holland River at 30-minute Landing and the Confluence of Holland Landing intervals the West and East Holland Rivers Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe Water temperature Station C1 – Cook's Bay Daily (EC Station ID 20133162)

After model grid debugging, roughness height and horizontal eddy viscosity were calibrated to match flow velocities and water levels observed on December 1, 2011. The data observed on December 8, 2011 were used for model validation. Table 3.5 summarizes the calibrated model parameters. The calibration and validation results are provided in Appendix A.

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Table 3.5: Calibrated EFDC Model Parameters

Parameter Value Horizontal eddy viscosity [m2/s] 5 Bottom roughness [m] 0.001

Figure A-1 in Appendix A provides a comparison of the observed and modelled water surface elevations for the December 1, 2011 calibration event. The model reproduced the water surface elevations measured along the 15 kilometre (km) long section of the river very well, with most differences between the observed and modelled elevations falling within the range of ±6 centimetres (cm). Figure A-2 in Appendix A shows that the model over-predicted water surface elevations (8 of 12 values).

Figure A-3 in Appendix A provides a comparison of the observed and modelled water surface elevations for the December 8, 2011 validation event. The water surface elevations were measured at four different locations in the river. The model slightly over-predicted water surface elevations at these four locations (see Figure A-4 in Appendix A).

Table 3.6 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating the water surface elevations for the calibration and validation events. The performance measures are very good for both events, with high coefficients of determination, zero mean relative errors, and small mean absolute errors. The model has 1.3 cm bias for the calibration event and 3.2 cm bias for the validation event. The validation measures are slightly worse than the calibration measures.

Table 3.6: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Water Surface Elevations

Calibration Validation Performance Measure (Dec 1, 2011) (Dec 8, 2011) Maximum Absolute Error [m] 0.054 0.061 Mean Absolute Error [m] 0.023 0.032 Bias [m] 0.013 0.032 Root Mean Square Error [m] 0.027 0.037 Mean Relative Error [-] 0.000 0.000 Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.804 0.957

There are two vertical layers in the constructed EFDC model, and the average horizontal velocity of the two vertical layers was applied in analyzing simulated horizontal flow velocities.

Figure A-5 in Appendix A provides a comparison of the observed and modelled flow velocities for the December 1, 2011 calibration event. The model reproduced very well the magnitudes of

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flow velocities downstream of the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers but slightly under-estimated the velocities in the section of the river upstream of the confluence. This may be due to the constant roughness height (0.001 m) used for the study area; the upstream section of the river is narrower and has higher flow velocities than the downstream section of the river. The slight under-estimation of flow velocities is also apparent on Figure A-6 in Appendix A.

Figure A-7 in Appendix A provides a comparison of the observed and modelled flow velocities for the December 8, 2011 validation event. The model did not match some of the flow velocities and under-predicted 9 of 13 values (see Figure A-8 in Appendix A).

Table 3.7 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating the flow velocities for the calibration and validation events. With the exception of the coefficient of determination, the validation measures are actually better than the calibration measures. The model produced almost unbiased results for the validation event. The mean absolute error was 7.8 centimetres per second (cm/s) for the calibration event and only 4.1 cm/s for the validation event. The coefficients of determination were high for the calibration event and slightly lower for the validation event.

Table 3.7: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Horizontal Velocity

Calibration Validation Performance Measure (Dec 1 2011) (Dec 8 2011) Maximum Absolute Error [m/s] 0.188 0.100 Mean Absolute Error [m/s] 0.078 0.041 Bias [m/s] -0.070 -0.031 Root Mean Square Error [m/s] 0.099 0.048 Mean Relative Error [-] -0.202 -0.039 Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.804 0.521

Figure A-9 in Appendix A provides a comparison of the observed and modelled water temperature for the December 1, 2011 calibration event. The model simulated the measured water temperature very well. Figure A-10 in Appendix A confirms a good match between the observed and modelled water temperatures.

Figure A-11 in Appendix A provides a comparison of the observed and modelled water temperature for the December 8, 2011 validation event. Overall, the model under-estimated most of the observations, which can also be seen on Figure A-12 in Appendix A. The under-estimation may be a result of the water temperature boundary at the confluence of the West and East Holland Rivers.

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Table 3.8 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating the water temperature for the calibration and validation events. The performance measures are good for the calibration event, with a very small maximum error and bias. The validation measures are not as good as the calibration measures due to a poor match of the model on two observations. The coefficient of determination is low for both calibration and validation.

Table 3.8: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Water Temperature

Performance Measure Calibration Validation (Dec 1, 2011) (Dec 8, 2011) Maximum Absolute Error [°C] 0.9 2.0 Mean Absolute Error [°C] 0.3 0.8 Bias [°C] 0.1 -0.7 Root Mean Square Error [°C] 0.4 1.0 Mean Relative Error [-] 0.0 -0.2 Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.2 0.3

Figure A-13 in Appendix A provides a comparison of the observed and modelled water temperature for the period April 8, 2012 – March 31, 2013. Overall, the simulated water temperature matched the observed data very well.

Table 3.9 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating water temperature for the period April 8, 2012 – March 31, 2013. Performance measures are good with small bias of 0.1oC and high coefficient of determination of 0.99. Although maximum absolute error is 3.2oC, the mean absolute error is 0.9oC suggesting good model performance in predicting water temperature in the East Holland River.

Table 3.9: Calibrated EFDC Model Performance in Simulating Temporal Water Temperature

Performance Measure Calibration (April 8, 2012 – March 31, 2013) Maximum Absolute Error [°C] 3.2 Mean Absolute Error [°C] 0.9 Bias [°C] 0.1 Root Mean Square Error [°C] 1.1 Mean Relative Error [-] 0.2 Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.99

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3.1.3 Model Limitations

The EFDC model has the following limitations:

. The model does not include river ice processes, such as ice formation, growth and decay, and ice breakage. . The model is not suitable for detailed simulation of any localized phenomena with spatial scales less than the cell length and width (e.g., near-field analysis of wastewater dischargers) because it is a far-field model.

3.2 CE-QUAL-W2

CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional, longitudinal/vertical, hydrodynamic and water quality model. Since the model assumes lateral homogeneity, it is best suited for relatively long and narrow water bodies exhibiting longitudinal and vertical water quality gradients. The model has been applied to rivers, lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, and their combinations. CE-QUAL-W2 can simulate water level, flow velocity, water temperature, ice cover, 28 water quality state variables and over 60 derived variables (Cole and Wells, 2011).

The ice module in CE-QUAL-W2 simulates ice formation, melting at air-ice interface, and growth and decay. Heat transfer in air-ice-water interface is in the form of conduction: the conduction between air and ice, and between ice and water. The model calculates the ice parameters in the following sequence:

. Calculate initial ice thickness. Formation of ice occurs when surface water temperature is lowered to freezing point by surface heat exchange process. With further heat loss, ice begins to form on the water surface. . Calculate ice surface (air-ice interface) temperature. During the thawing season, ice surface temperature is at constant 0°C; however, during other time periods, it must be computed using upper boundary conditions. . Calculate solar radiation absorbed by water under ice, using ice albedo, absorption by ice, and ice extinction. This is an important component of the heat budget, since it is the only heat source to melt ice at the ice-water surface. . Calculate ice thickness reduction due to air-ice interface melting. The melted ice thickness directly relates to ice surface temperature and current ice thickness. . Calculation of ice-water interface ice growth/decay. If heat flux from water to ice is less than the heat from ice to air, ice grows; otherwise, ice decays. The larger this difference, the quicker growth/decay would be.

CE-QUAL-W2 divides longitudinal model domain direction into segments and vertical direction into layers. A model segment is characterized by its length and orientation, and vertical layer has properties of width and heights. Various layers can have different heights. The model does

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not calculate widths from common bathymetry properties (e.g., x, y, and z data) by itself; external tools are required to calculate the width information.

The CE-QUAL-W2 model was selected for its ability to simulate ice formation and melt processes. To use CE-QUAL-W2 model, a utility to generate bathymetry and export ice thickness to a shape file for spatial view must be developed. Such functionalities were implemented in ArcMap 9.3.1 with Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The in-house developed utility can calculate widths using river bank shapefile and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, and export the time series files for each CE-QUAL-W2 segment into a shape file for spatial display.

3.2.1 Model Setup 3.2.1.1 Grid Generation

The first step of CE-QUAL-W2 modelling is grid generation. There are no software packages in the public domain that could be used for grid generation; due to the rapid updating of CE-QUAL-W2, commercial software packages do not support the most recent CE-QUAL-W2 version (version 3.7.1). Thus pre- and post-processing tools were developed in house in Microsoft Visual C# 2010 and VBA/ArcObject. The development of the tools is detailed in Appendix B.

In CE-QUAL-W2, branches are a collection of segments with variable slope, and each branch has a single slope. Slopes of each branch are used to align segment bottom elevations. Branches within one water body should have similar turbulence closure and water quality parameter values, and the same meteorological forcing. Typical water bodies can be rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries. Since the study area is a single river system, the water body number is 1.

Three branches were defined for the study area as summarized in Table 3.10. Branch 1 was defined for the East Holland River from Holland Landing to Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe. This branch was divided into 370 segments with upstream segment ID 2 and downstream segment ID 369. Two dummy segments, at the most upstream and downstream ends of the branch were defined with zero widths for CE-QUAL-W2 segment identification.

Branch 2 represents the West Holland River. Since it is not of main interest, only two segments were created on this branch with a total length of 227 m. Branch 3 was built to represent the Water Reclamation Centre discharge and the Queensville Drain.

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Table 3.10: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Branches

Branch 1 Branch 2 Branch 3 No. of segments 370(1) 4(1) 10(1) Upstream segment 2 372 376 Downstream segment 369 373 383 Upstream boundary condition 0(2) 0(2) 0(2) Downstream boundary condition -1(3) 332(4) 209(4) (1) each number includes two dummy segments, one at upstream branch, and the other at downstream branch (2) this is a flow boundary, each one requires a flow time series (3) this is a head boundary, water surface elevations time series was specified for this location (4) the downstream branch connects to this segment, used to define branch connectivity

The model grid is presented on Figure 3.3. Branch 1 has maximum and minimum segment lengths of 216 m and 8 m, and an average length of 46 m; the two segments of branch 2 have lengths of 112 m and 115 m; branch 3 has maximum and minimum segment lengths of 45 m and 9 m with an average length of 26 m.

The elevations of the segments from the very bottom to the top surface section are within the range of 216 to 222 m. Each vertical layer is set to the same height of 0.25 m, resulting in 23 active layers with two dummy layers - one on the top and the other at the bottom as required in CE-QUAL-W2 bathymetry file format specification, resulting in 25 total vertical layers.

To simulate two scenarios i.e. without and with the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location, two different branch combinations were configured:

1. without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (branch 1 + branch 2) 2. with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (branch 1 + branch 2 + branch 3)

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Figure 3.3: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Grid

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3.2.1.2 Model Boundaries

CE-QUAL-W2 was set up with the same flow, water surface elevation, and water temperature boundaries as the EFDC model (see Section 3.1.1.2). The model boundaries were defined in the East Holland River at Holland Landing, at the confluence of the West and East Holland Rivers, in Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe, and at the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location. The model used the following meteorological parameters: wind speed and direction, air temperature, dew point, global solar radiation, and cloud cover.

From Table 3.9, the East Holland River (branch 1) has upstream flow boundary (see Section 2.1.1.1) and downstream water level boundary (see Section 2.1.3.1); the West Holland River (branch 2) has upstream flow boundary (see Section 2.1.2.1) and its downstream connects to the East Holland River at segment ID 332 in branch 1. The Queensville Sideroad discharge (branch 3) has upstream flow boundary (see Section 2.2.1) and connects to the East Holland River at segment ID 209 in branch 1. Water temperature boundaries were defined at the upstream of the three branches (see Sections 2.1.1.2, 2.1.2.2, and 2.2.2) and in Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe (see Section 2.1.3.2).

Initial water temperature in the model domain was set to a constant 14.2°C (same as in the EFDC model) for every segment. Initial water surface elevations were set to 220 metres Above Mean Sea Level (MASL) to assure each segment starts the simulation with wet condition. The CE-QUAL-W2 model was run using a minimum dynamic time step of one second.

3.2.1.3 Model Parameters

Table 3.11 summarizes the key parameters of the CE-QUAL-W2 model. The roles of relative humidity, wet bulb temperature, and dew point are similar in EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2, each model accepts one or another to calculate model internal parameters. In the EFDC model, either relative humidity or wet bulb temperature can be used, and in the CE-QUAL-W2 model dew point is accepted.

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Table 3.11 Key CE QUAL W2 Model Parameter Values

Parameter Unit W2 Horizontal eddy viscosity [m2/s] * Manning coefficient [-] * Vertical eddy scheme [-] Turbulent kinetic energy Initial bed temperature [°C] ** Heat transfer coefficient between bed and [W/m2/C] ** water column Use computed solar radiation to overwrite [-] No input solar Shading factor [-] 1 Wind shelter coefficient [-] 1 Anemometer height [m] 10 Internally compute evaporation [-] No

Simple or detailed computation method [-] *** Albedo [-] *** Coefficient of water-ice heat exchange [-] *** Fraction of radiation absorbed by ice [-] *** Minimum ice thickness before ice [m] *** formation Surface heat exchange algorithm [-] ***

Latitude [decimal] 44.166 Longitude [decimal] -79.516 Notes: * calibration parameter for water level and flow velocity ** calibration parameter for water temperature *** sensitivity analysis parameter for ice thickness

Horizontal eddy viscosity and Manning roughness coefficient were used as calibration and validation parameters to match the water level and flow velocities observed on December 1, 2011 and December 8, 2011. To simulate vertical shear stress, six formulations can be used in CE-QUAL-W2: Nickuradse (NICK), Parabolic (PARAB), W2 (used in CE-QUAL-W2 version 2), W2 with mixing length of Nickuradse (W2N), RNG (re-normalization group), and TKE (Turbulent kinetic energy). The TKE is the most recent methodology suggested by Cole and Wells, 2011, and was chosen for the CE-QUAL-W2 modelling in this study.

Parameters 'initial bed temperature' and 'heat transfer coefficient between bed and water column' were calibration parameters for water temperature. Values of other parameters 'Use computed solar radiation to overwrite input solar', 'Shading factor', 'Wind shelter coefficient', and

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'Anemometer height' were adopted from the calibrated EFDC model (see Section 3.1.1.3). Evaporation was not accounted for in the model.

Latitude and longitude were set at the confluence of the West and East Holland Rivers the same way as in the EFDC model.

3.2.1.4 Sensitivity Analysis

The sensitivity analysis was conducted without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (branch 1 + branch 2). The maximum daily ice thickness at the segment with ID 211, located 50 m downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location, was chosen for the sensitivity analysis. Parameter values for the baseline, lower (L), and upper (U) scenarios were designed based on recommended ranges (see Table 3.12).

Table 3.12: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Parameters for Sensitivity Analysis

Parameter Unit Base Scenario Scenario L U Horizontal eddy viscosity [m2/s] 1 0. 5 5 Simple or detail ice algorithm [-] Detail Simple Albedo (Reflection/incident) [-] 0.25 0.1 0.3 Coefficient of water-ice heat [-] 10 5 100 exchange Fraction of solar absorbed by ice [-] 0.6 0.2 0.9 Minimum ice thickness before ice [m] 0.05 0.03 0.1 formation Air-water heat exchange [-] Equilibrium Term by term algorithm temperature

Table 3.13 summarizes the sensitivity results within the simulation period from October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012, which covers the two winter periods 2010 – 2011 and 2011 - 2012. As can be seen in the table, decreasing the horizontal eddy viscosity increases ice thickness by 1.1 centimetres (cm) and increasing the horizontal eddy viscosity decreases ice thickness by 1.9 cm.

The simple ice algorithm increases ice thickness by 27.9 cm. The simple algorithm was introduced in CE-QUAL-W2 version 1.0 and was kept in the model for backward compatibility purposes. The detail algorithm represents significant improvement of the simple algorithm, and thus is the preferred method in CE-QUAL-W2 (Cole and Wells, 2011). The detail algorithm was used in this study.

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Decreasing albedo value results in decreased maximum ice thickness. With lower albedo, less solar energy is reflected, and therefore more energy is absorbed. The total absorbed energy is distributed into ice, water, or sediment bed. With more energy, ice melts quicker. Therefore, the ice thickness dropped compared to the base scenario. Higher albedo means less energy is absorbed by ice, which results in higher ice thickness.

Coefficient of water-ice heat exchange describes the 'speed' of heat transfer between ice and the water underneath. Thus, a higher coefficient corresponds to faster ice melt, resulting in thinner ice. This is proven in the two scenarios for coefficient of water-ice heat exchange, with a 1.2 centimetres (cm) drop obtained by increasing this parameter to its U scenario value and a 0.6 cm rise by decreasing its value to L scenario.

A high fraction of solar energy absorbed by ice melts ice and prevents ice formation. This is demonstrated in the two designed scenarios for the fraction of solar energy absorbed by ice, with a 36.3 cm increase in L scenario and an 8.8 cm decrease in U scenario.

The air-water heat exchange algorithm changes little between equilibrium temperatures and term by term. Term by term has sound theoretic base, and equilibrium temperatures generate good results in some practical applications. Using the term by term algorithm, the maximum ice thickness increases by 0.2 cm.

Table 3.13: CE-QUAL-W2 Model Sensitivity Analysis Results

Change on maximum ice Parameter Scenario thickness [m] L 0.011 Horizontal eddy viscosity U -0.019 SIMPLE or DETAIL ice algorithm Simple 0.279 L -0.054 Albedo (Reflection / incident) U 0.009 L 0.006 Coefficient of water-ice heat exchange U -0.012 Fraction of solar absorbed by ice L 0.363 U -0.088 Air-water heat exchange algorithm Term by term 0.002

3.2.2 Model Calibration and Validation

The CE-QUAL-W2 model was spatially calibrated and validated to observed water levels, flow velocities, and water temperatures measured in the field on December 1 and 8, 2011. The December 1 data were used for model calibration and the December 8, 2011 data for model

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validation. The model was temporally calibrated to observed ice thickness measurements collected at three locations in the river during the winter 2012 - 2013.

The same boundary conditions were used in CE-QUAL-W2 to spatially calibrate and validate water surface elevation, flow velocity, and water temperature, as were used in the EFDC model (see Table 3.4). In the temporal calibration the Holland Landing lagoon discharge was deactivated and the frequencies of the other parameters in Table 3.4 were aggregated to daily for sub-daily parameters.

The simulation period was November 11, 2011 to December 10, 2011 (same as in the EFDC model) for the spatial calibration and validation, and October 15, 2012 to March 31, 2013 for the temporal calibration of ice thickness to cover the winter 2012 - 2013.

Table 3.14 summarizes the values of the calibrated model parameters. The calibration and validation results are provided in Appendix C.

Table 3.14: Calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Parameters Values

Parameter Value Horizontal eddy viscosity 5 Manning coefficient 0.02

Figure C-1 in Appendix C compares the observed and modelled water surface elevations for the December 1, 2011 calibration event. The model reproduced the water surface elevations very well; the differences are within ±5 centimetres (cm). Figure C-2 in Appendix C shows that the model under-predicted 8 of 12 of the water surface elevations.

Figure C-3 in Appendix C compares the observed and modelled water surface elevations for the December 8, 2011 validation event. The model slightly over-predicted water surface elevations (see Figure C-4 in Appendix C).

Table 3.15 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating the water surface elevations for the calibration and validation events. The performance measures are very good for both events, with high coefficients of determination, zero mean relative errors, and small mean absolute errors. The model has -1.4 cm bias for the calibration event and +2.4 cm bias for the validation event due to the over-prediction as shown on Figure C-3 in Appendix C. The validation measures are slightly worse than the calibration measures. However, the Coefficient of Determination is higher for the validation model.

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Table 3.15: Calibrated and Validated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Performance in Simulating Water Surface Elevations

Performance Measure Calibration Validation (Dec 1 2011) (Dec 8 2011) Maximum Absolute Error [m] 0.051 0.050 Mean Absolute Error [m] 0.023 0.024 Bias [m] -0.014 0.024 Root Mean Square Error [m] 0.027 0.030 Mean Relative Error [-] 0.000 0.000 Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.868 0.980

There is no direct way to export the average flow velocity in CE-QUAL-W2. The observed flow velocity data were measured at a depth of 40 percent from the river bottom, thus actual measurement location depended on actual water depth. Flow velocities were extracted utilizing the profile viewer, which is included in the CE-QUAL-W2 post-processor.

Figure C-5 in Appendix C compares the observed and modelled flow velocities for the December 1, 2011 calibration event. The model reproduced well the magnitudes of flow velocities downstream of the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers but slightly under-estimated the velocities in the section of the river upstream of the confluence. This may be due to the spatially constant Manning's n coefficient (0.02) for the study area; similar to the EFDC model. The under-estimation of flow velocities occurred for 5 of 6 values (see Figure C-6 in Appendix C).

Figure C-7 in Appendix C compares the observed and modelled flow velocities for the December 8, 2011 validation event. The model under-predicted the observations for 7 of 10 values (see Figure C-8 in Appendix C).

Table 3.16 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating the flow velocities for the calibration and validation events. The calibration results are better than the validation results except for the maximum absolute error. The mean absolute error was 9.9 centimetres per second (cm/s) for the calibration event and only 2.9 cm/s for the validation event. The coefficients of determination are high for both calibration and validation events, suggesting good model performance.

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Table 3.16: Calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Performance in Simulating Horizontal Velocity

Performance Measure Calibration Validation (Dec 1 2011) (Dec 8 2011) Maximum Absolute Error [m/s] 0.248 0.070 Mean Absolute Error [m/s] 0.099 0.029 Bias [m/s] -0.098 -0.027 Root Mean Square Error [m/s] 0.122 0.038 Mean Relative Error [-] -0.368 -0.192 Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.794 0.770

Figure C-9 in Appendix C compares the observed and modelled water temperature for the December 1, 2011 calibration event. The model simulated the measured water temperature well with maximum difference of 1°C. Figure C-10 in Appendix C shows that the model under-predicted the observed water temperatures.

Figure C-11 in Appendix C compares the observed and modelled water temperatures for the December 8, 2011 validation event. The model under-estimated the observations, which can also be found on Figure C-12 in Appendix C.

Table 3.17 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating the water temperature for the calibration and validation events. The performance measures are good for the calibration event except the coefficient of determination, with small maximum absolute error and bias. The validation measures are not as good as the calibration measures, with maximum absolute error of 1.9°C. However, it was found that two observation points had maximum discrepancy of 1.7°C and 1.9°C which significantly affected the validation performance measures, and the other points had good match with observed data, as can be seen on Figures C-11 and C-12 in Appendix C.

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Table 3.17: Calibrated CE QUAL W2 Model Performance in Simulating Water Temperature

Performance Measure Calibration Validation (Dec 1 2011) (Dec 8, 2011) Maximum Absolute Error [°C] 1.0 1.9 Mean Absolute Error [°C] 0.4 0.7 Bias [°C] -0.3 -0.7 Root Mean Square Error [°C] 0.5 0.9 Mean Relative Error [-] -0.1 -0.2 Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.2 0.1

Figures C-13 and C-14 in Appendix C provide comparisons of the observed and modelled ice thickness at locations SW33 (Queensville) and SW40 (Ravenshoe) (refer to Figure 2.44). The model simulated ice thickness well. It was noted the CE-QUAL-W2 model predicted ice thickness zero for location SW41 (Bradford Street), which was due to the vicinity of the East Holland River boundary. Thus the comparison for location SW41 (Bradford Street) is not included herein.

Table 3.18 summarizes the statistical performance of the model in simulating ice thickness. The performance measures are good with high coefficient of determination of 0.8, low bias and mean absolute error. The maximum absolute error of 13.2 centimetres (cm) occurred at SW40 (Ravenshoe, downstream of the confluence), which is attributed to the effect of the West Holland River water temperature boundary.

Table 3.18: Calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 Model Performance in Simulating Ice Thickness

Performance Measure Calibration (2012 and 2013) Maximum Absolute Error [m] 0.132 Mean Absolute Error [m] 0.04 Bias [m] 0.009 Root Mean Square Error [m] 0.058 Mean Relative Error [-] * Coefficient of Determination [-] 0.8 Note: * not available due to the existence of zero ice thickness observation

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3.2.3 Model Limitations

The CE-QUAL-W2 model has the following limitations:

. The governing equations are laterally-averaged. Lateral averaging assumes that lateral variations in velocities, water temperatures, and constituents are negligible, which is valid for many river simulations including the East Holland River. . The equations are written in the conservative form using the Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximations. Since vertical momentum is not included, the model may give inaccurate results where there is significant vertical acceleration. . The model does not consider snow cover in its ice algorithm, which may under-estimate the ice thickness.

Section 4.0 Modelling Results

The EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models presented in this section are based on maximum Water Reclamation Centre flow (i.e., 100 percent) to the receiver in the year 2031, despite the likely diversion of some Water Reclamation Centre treated effluent for water reuse (worst case).

The EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 modelling results are provided and discussed in sections below and in Appendices D and E. Since both models produce results that are distributed in time and space, the results were presented as a time-varying comparison of water temperatures and ice thicknesses without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge at different locations downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location, as well as spatial snapshots of the study area at different times of the year.

The time-varying comparison of water temperatures and ice thicknesses without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge was constructed at eight locations downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (50 m, 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, 1,000 m, and 2,500 m downstream of Queensville Sideroad, 250 m downstream of the East and West Holland River confluence, and at the mouth of the river at Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe). The eight locations are shown on Figure 4.1 below.

The constructed EFDC model had two vertical layers for each cell. The water temperature of a cell was taken as the average of its two vertical layers. The ice thickness data are not related to vertical layers in the CE-QUAL-W2 model.

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Figure 4.1: Locations for the Assessment of Model Results

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4.1 Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code

4.1.1 Temporal Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre Thermal Effects

Figures 4.2 to 4.9 compare water temperatures for the scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge at the eight locations downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge location at Queensville Sideroad for the simulation period of October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012. Table 4.1 summarizes the mean, maximum, and minimum water temperature changes from the baseline scenario (without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge). Two winter periods (the winters of 2010 - 2011 and 2011 - 2012) and one summer period (2011) were investigated in particular as the Water Reclamation Centre effects are expected to be most pronounced during the winter and summer.

The results in Table 4.1 show that in general the maximum differences in water temperature occur immediately downstream of the discharge location. Furthermore, the maximum change in the ambient water temperature was obtained in the summer period (-7.3°C). The maximum change during the winter periods was slightly lower: +5.7°C for the first winter period (2010-2011) and +4.8°C for the second winter period (2011-2012). The mean changes in water temperature are much smaller than the maximum changes: -2.7°C for the summer period and +2.4°C to +3.1°C for the winter periods. The results in Table 4.1 also suggest that the changes in water temperature decline as the discharged water moves downstream; near the confluence of the river with the West Holland River the changes in water temperature are very small, if any.

For some scenarios summarized in Table 4.1 the change in water temperature is larger 100 m downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location as opposed to 50 m downstream. This is explained by the progression of the thermal plume in the river which is not always fully mixed with the ambient water in the river at the 50 m location. Depending on the hydrodynamic conditions the plume can be attached to the right bank of the river (during high flows) or can even travel upstream (during low flows or high lake levels).

Table 4.1: Water Temperature Changes (in °C) due to the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge at Queensville Sideroad

Cook’s Bay/Lake Period 50 m 100 m 250 m 500 m 1,000 m 2,500 m Confluence Simcoe Mean 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 Nov 1 2010- Mar 31 2011 Max 5.7 5.8 4.7 4.7 4.0 2.9 0.8 0.4 Mean -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5 -1.7 -0.9 0.0 0.0 Jul 1 2011- Aug 31 2011 Max -7.3 -6.8 -6.1 -5.7 -3.6 -2.0 -0.3 -0.5 Mean 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 Nov 1 2011- Mar 31 2012 Max 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.3 3.6 2.5 0.8 0.8

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Figure 4.2 compares the time series of water temperatures in the East Holland River 50 m downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location for the scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. The figure illustrates that the Water Reclamation Centre discharge is expected to increase water temperatures in the East Holland River during the winter period and decrease the water temperature during the summer period.

The mean water temperature increase for the winter of 2010 - 2011 was 5.7°C and 4.8°C in the winter of 2011 - 2012 (see Table 4.1). The winter of 2010 - 2011 was colder than the winter of 2011 - 2012, hence the generally larger changes in water temperatures during the winter of 2010 – 2011. In the summer of 2011, the mean and maximum water temperature decreases were 2.7°C and 7.3°C, respectively.

A similar trend in water temperatures is found at the location 100 m downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad discharge outfall location, as shown on Figure 4.3. The mean water temperature increase for the 2010 - 2011 winter was predicted to be 3.1°C and 2.4°C for the 2011 - 2012 winter period. In the summer period, the mean and maximum water temperatures were 2.7°C and 6.8°C.

The differences between the river water temperatures for the scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge propagate further downstream (see Figures Figure 4.4 to Figure 4.7). However the magnitude of the differences gradually diminishes. The differences are very small 2,500 m downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location and negligible in the section of the river between the confluence of the river with the West Holland River and the mouth of the river at Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe.

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Figure 4.2: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0 Water Temperature [oC] Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.3: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC

35.0

30.0

25.0 C] o 20.0

15.0 Water Temperature [ Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.4: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC

35.0

30.0

25.0 C] o 20.0

15.0 Water Temperature [ Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.5: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC

35.0

30.0

25.0 C] o 20.0

15.0 Water Temperature [ Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.6: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC

35.0

30.0

25.0 C] o 20.0

15.0 Water Temperature [ Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.7: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC

35.0

30.0

25.0 C] o 20.0

15.0 Water Temperature [ Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.8: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Confluence of the West Holland River and the East Holland River

Without WRC With WRC

35.0

30.0

25.0 C] o 20.0

15.0 Water Temperature [ Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.9: Daily Water Temperature in the East Holland River at Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe

Without WRC With WRC

30.0

25.0

20.0 C] o

15.0 Water Temperature [ Temperature Water

10.0

5.0

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

Figures D-1 to D-8 in Appendix D compare the projected mean monthly water temperatures calculated for the simulation period at the eight different locations for the scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. The differences between the two scenarios are largest at locations near the discharge point (see e.g., Figures D-1 to D-4 in Appendix D). The mean monthly water temperatures in winter are expected to increase by up to 4.1°C and the water temperatures in summer to decrease by up to 3.8°C. The thermal regime during the spring and fall months would be least affected with small changes in water temperatures.

The thermal effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the seasonal distribution of water temperatures in the East Holland River is much smaller further downstream (see Figures D-5 and D-6 in Appendix D) and is again negligible after the confluence with the West Holland River (see Figures D-7 and D-8 in Appendix D).

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4.1.2 Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre Thermal Effects

Five scenarios (five representative dates) were defined for studying the changes in the spatial distribution of water temperatures in the East Holland River. The scenarios were defined based on the average, maximum, and minimum differences in water temperatures at the eight locations discussed in the previous section. The scenarios are summarized in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2: Scenarios of Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre Thermal Effects

Scenario (water temperature change due to the Water Date Reclamation Centre discharge) Maximum winter water temperature increase (Winter max) December 26, 2010 Minimum winter water temperature increase (Winter min) March 11, 2011 Mean winter water temperature increase (Winter mean) March 3, 2011 Maximum summer water temperature decrease (Summer max) July 22, 2011 Mean annual water temperature change (Yearly mean) October 16, 2011

For each scenario summarized in Table 4.1, EFDC_Explorer plots file containing the water temperatures at the four corners of each cell was exported for purpose of displaying the results in ArcGIS. A Python script was written to create polygon shapefiles, with each polygon representing one cell in EFDC, and water temperature of each cell was written as a field value of the polygon. It is noted that when the polygons are mapped in ArcGIS, some adjacent model cells with very similar water temperatures may actually be represented by different colours (representing different water temperature intervals). This occurs when the water temperature in the cells is just above or below the given water temperature interval (e.g., 0.997°C in one cell and 1.003°C in the other for the dividing interval of 1.0°C).

The maps of spatial distribution of water temperatures for the scenarios defined in Table 4.2 are plotted in Appendix D. Figures D-9 and D-10 in Appendix D correspond to scenario 'Maximum winter water temperature increase (Winter max)'. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, the water temperatures within the study area are below 1°C (see Figure D-9 in Appendix D). When the Water Reclamation Centre effluent (14°C in December) is discharged to the East Holland River (Figure D-10 in Appendix D) the water temperatures in the river in the vicinity of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location increase from 0.1°C to 10.8°C. The thermal plume can be tracked for about 1.5 kilometres (km) downstream of the discharge location at Queensville Sideroad. At this distance and further downstream, there is negligible difference in water temperatures between the two scenarios.

Figures D-11 and D-12 in Appendix D show the water temperatures for the scenario 'Minimum winter water temperature increase (Winter min)'. Without the Water Reclamation Centre

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discharge, water temperatures in the river are lower than 2.5°C except for Soldier's Bay, where the water temperature is below 1°C (Soldier's Bay is a large stagnant water body with minimal circulation, thus tending to be colder than the water flowing in the river). When the Water Reclamation Centre effluent (11°C in March) is discharged to the river (Figure D-12 in Appendix D), the water temperatures in the river in the vicinity of the proposed discharge location increase from 1.1°C to 2.3°C. The thermal plume is restricted to within the Queensville Drain and does not extend to the river.

Figures D-13 and D-14 in Appendix D show the projected water temperature for the scenario 'Mean winter water temperature increase (Winter mean)'. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, water temperatures in the river are less than 2.5°C except for portions of Soldier's Bay, which is below 1°C (for the same reason as in 'Winter min' scenario on Figure D-11 in Appendix D). When the Water Reclamation Centre effluent (11°C in March) is discharged to the river (Figure D-4 in Appendix D), water temperatures in the river in the vicinity of the proposed discharge location increase from 1.3°C to 7.5°C. The thermal plume can be seen for about 1.5 kilometres (km) downstream of the proposed discharge location.

Figures D-15 and D-16 in Appendix D show the scenario 'Maximum summer water temperature decrease (Summer max)'. Figure D-15 in Appendix D displays the distribution of water temperatures without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, the water temperatures are greater than 28°C for the displayed model extent. When the Water Reclamation Centre effluent (18°C in July) is discharged to the river (Figure D-16 in Appendix D), water temperatures in the river in the vicinity of the proposed discharge location decrease from 29.3°C to 19.9°C. The cool-down effect would progress about 2 km downstream of the proposed discharge location.

Figures D-17 and D-18 in Appendix D show the scenario 'Yearly water temperature change (Yearly mean)'. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure D-17 in Appendix D), water temperature in the modelled area does not exceed 10°C. With the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (17°C in October) to the river, water temperature in the vicinity of the proposed discharge location increased from 8.9°C to 14.5°C. The thermal plume progresses 2 to 3 km downstream of the proposed discharge location. This is explained by the weak warming/cooling atmospheric effect (the warmed river water temperature is closer to air temperature in the fall/spring than in winter or summer).

4.2 CE-QUAL-W2

4.2.1 Temporal Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre River Ice Effects

Figure 4.10 shows the temporal variation of ice thickness in the East Holland River 50 m downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, ice thickness during the cold 2010-2011 winter period is modelled to peak at 59 centimetres (cm) on February 11, 2011. In the mild 2012 winter, ice thickness shows more

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variations and is modelled to peak at 29 centimetres (cm) on February 19, 2012. With the Water Reclamation Centre discharge at Queensville Sideroad, the model predicts ice-free conditions in the river at this location.

Figures 4.11 to 4.15 show very similar trends with higher ice thickness occurring in the 2010-2011 winter than in the 2011–2012 winter. With the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, the ice is predicted to be melted in the East Holland River 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1,000 m downstream of the proposed discharge location. After approximately 1,000 m downstream of the proposed discharge location ice is predicted to be formed again in the river, although with reduced thickness. For example the ice thickness at 2,500 m downstream of the discharge location, is predicted to reach 35 cm in the 2010–2011 winter without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge and 18 cm with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge.

At the two locations in the East Holland River downstream of the confluence, (Figure 4.16 and Figure 4.17) the ice thickness for the two scenarios is almost identical, suggesting minimal effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge in this section of the river.

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Figure 4.10: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.11: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.12: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.13: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.14: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.15: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Proposed Queensville Sideroad Outfall Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.16: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Confluence of the West Holland River and East Holland River

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

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Figure 4.17: Modelled Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River at Cook's Bay

Without WRC With WRC 0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 6/6/2011 9/14/2011 12/23/2011 4/1/2012 7/10/2012

Figures E-1 to E-8 in Appendix E show the modelled mean monthly ice thickness at the eight locations in the East Holland River. In these figures, only the months with ice cover are presented, ice-free months are not shown.

At the locations 50 m, 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1,000 m downstream of the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge location (Figures E-1 to E-5 in Appendix E), the modelled maximum and minimum monthly ice thickness occur in February and March for the scenario without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. With the proposed Queensville Sideroad outfall discharge, these locations are expected to be ice-free. It is predicted that in the East Holland River 2,500 m downstream of the proposed discharge location (Figure E-6 in Appendix E), the river will freeze up again, but the ice thickness is predicted to be reduced to about 26 centimetres (cm) in February 2011 and 0.4 cm in February 2012.

The Water Reclamation Centre discharge is predicted to have negligible effect on the reduction of ice thickness at the two locations in the East Holland River downstream of the confluence, as demonstrated on Figures E-7 and E-8 in Appendix E.

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Table 4.3 summarizes the modelled ice thickness statistics for the simulation period October 1, 2010 – March 31, 2012. For purposes of this study, the modelled ice duration is defined from the date of ice formation (with ice thicker than 1 cm) to the date of ice break (with ice thickness less than 1 cm) for each winter period.

In the East Holland River 50 m downstream of the discharge location, the modelled ice duration is 94 days in the winter 2010-2011 and 88 days in the winter 2011-2012 for the scenario without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. With the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, this location is modelled to become ice-free for during both winter periods. For the other locations without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, the model predicts longer ice durations for the 2010-2011 winter than for the 2011-2012 winter, since 2010-2011 was a much colder winter.

With the Water Reclamation Centre discharge, the locations 50 m, 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1,000 m downstream of the discharge location are predicted to be ice-free. At the river location 2,500 m downstream of the discharge point, the mean ice thickness and duration are predicted to be reduced, e.g., in the 2010-2011 winter, mean ice thickness is modelled to decrease from 33 centimetres (cm) down to 18 cm, and the ice duration is modelled to be reduced from 94 days to 87 days.

Downstream of the confluence point the modelled mean ice thickness and ice cover duration would be minimally affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge with almost identical values for both winter periods.

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Table 4.3: Modelled Ice Thickness Statistics

Locations downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge at Queensville Sideroad Cook's Bay/Lake Scenario Statistics 50 m 100 m 250 m 500 m 1,000 m 2,500 m Confluence Simcoe Without 2011 Ice from 05/12/2010 06/12/2010 07/12/2010 06/12/2010 07/12/2010 05/12/2010 06/12/2010 07/12/2010

2011 Ice to 09/03/2011 09/03/2011 09/03/2011 09/03/2011 09/03/2011 09/03/2011 10/03/2011 10/03/2011 Water Reclamation 2011 Duration 94 93 92 93 92 94 94 93 Centre discharge Max Thickness 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.50 0.46 0.46 Mean Thickness 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.30 2012 Ice from 10/12/2011 10/12/2011 18/12/2011 10/12/2011 28/12/2011 10/12/2011 28/12/2011 28/12/2011 2012 Ice to 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 2012 Duration 88 88 80 88 70 88 70 70 Max Thickness 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.25 0.25 Mean Thickness 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.17 Water 2011 Ice from - - - - - 06/12/2010 07/12/2010 07/12/2010 Reclamation 2011 Ice to - - - - - 03/03/2011 09/03/2011 10/03/2011 Centre discharge 2011 Duration - - - - - 87 92 93 at Queensville Max Thickness - - - - - 0.35 0.45 0.46 Sideroad Mean Thickness - - - - - 0.18 0.28 0.30 2012 Ice from - - - - - 28/12/2011 28/12/2011 29/12/2011 2012 Ice to - - - - - 14/02/2012 07/03/2012 07/03/2012 2012 Duration - - - - - 48 70 69 Max Thickness - - - - - 0.13 0.25 0.25 Mean Thickness - - - - - 0.05 0.17 0.17

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4.2.2 Modelled Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre River Ice Effects

Four scenarios were defined for studying the changes in the spatial distribution of ice thickness in the East Holland River. The scenarios were defined based on the modelled maximum and average differences in ice thickness at the location 2,500 m downstream of the discharge location in the river. The maximum change scenario was defined as the day with maximum ice thickness decrease and maximum spatial extent of ice-free area in the river. The average change scenario was defined as the day with ice thickness change corresponding to average ice thickness change. The maximum and average scenarios were determined for each of the two winter periods separately, resulting in a total of four scenarios.

The scenarios are summarized in Table 4.4 below.

Table 4.4: Scenarios of Spatial Distribution of Water Reclamation Centre River Ice Effects

Scenario 2010-2011 Winter 2011-2012 Winter Average February 7, 2011 January 26, 2012 Maximum March 4, 2011 February 19, 2012

The spatial ice distribution figures for the four scenarios summarized in Table 4.4 without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge are presented on Figures E-9 through E-16 in Appendix E. Figures E-9 and E-10 in Appendix E show the spatial distribution of ice thickness for the 'Average ice melt’ scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge for the 2010–2011 winter. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-9 in Appendix E), the ice thickness on the average day (February 7, 2011) was above 30 centimetres (cm) in the river. For the scenario with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-10 in Appendix E), the ice thickness would be reduced to:

. zero for a distance of approximately 1.8 kilometres (km) downstream of the proposed discharge location . less than 10 cm for a distance of 1.9 km downstream . less than 20 cm for a distance of 2.1 km downstream . less than 30 cm for a distance of 2.2 km downstream

Downstream of the confluence there would be no change in ice thickness in the river.

Figures E-11 and E-12 in Appendix E show the spatial distribution of ice thickness for the 'Maximum ice melt’ scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge for the 2010-2011 winter. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-11 in Appendix E), the ice thickness on the maximum day (March 4, 2011) is greater than 30 cm in

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the river. For the scenario with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-12 in Appendix E), the ice thickness would be reduced to:

. zero for a distance of 2.5 kilometres (km) downstream of the discharge location . less than 10 centimetres (cm) for a distance of 2.8 km downstream . less than 20 cm for a distance of 3.2 km downstream . less than 30 cm for a distance of 4.2 km downstream

Downstream of the confluence there would be no change in ice thickness in the river.

Figures E-13 and E-14 in Appendix E show the spatial distribution of ice thickness for the Average ice melt’ scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge for the 2011–2012 winter. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-13 in Appendix E), the ice thickness on the average day (January 26, 2012) is between 20 to 30 cm in the river. For the scenario with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-14 in Appendix E), the ice thickness would be reduced to:

. zero for a distance of 1.8 km downstream of the discharge location . less than 10 cm for a distance of 2.8 km downstream . less than 20 cm for a distance of 4.8 km downstream

Downstream of the confluence the ice thicknesses would have no change with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge.

Figures E-15 and E-16 in Appendix E show the spatial distribution of ice thickness for the 'Maximum ice melt’ scenarios without and with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge for the 2010-2011 winter. Without the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-15 in Appendix E), the ice thickness on the maximum day (February 19, 2012) is between 20 and 30 cm in the river. For the scenario with the Water Reclamation Centre discharge (Figure E-16 in Appendix E), the ice thickness would be reduced to:

. zero for a distance of 3.9 km downstream of the discharge location . less than 10 cm for a distance of 4.3 km downstream . less than 20 cm for a distance of 5.2 km downstream

Downstream of the confluence the change in ice thicknesses due to the Water Reclamation Centre discharge would be negligible.

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Section 5.0 Summary

The EFDC and CE-QUAL-W2 models were used to predict the potential effects and benefits of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the seasonal distribution of water temperatures and ice regime in the East Holland River. The modelling was conservative as it was based on maximum Water Reclamation Centre flow (i.e., 100 percent) to the receiver in the year 2031, with no diversion of treated effluent for water reuse.

The potential thermal effects and benefits of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge include the following:

. Water temperatures in the East Holland River are expected to increase during the winter period and decrease during the summer period, since the effluent temperature would be higher than the ambient water temperature in winter and lower in summer. . The effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on the ambient water temperatures is expected to be small in the spring and fall periods when the effluent and ambient air temperatures are similar. . The maximum change in river water temperatures is expected to be observed near the Queensville Sideroad discharge location, where the daily water temperatures may increase up to 5.8°C in winter and decrease by up to 7.3°C in summer. The mean monthly water temperatures are expected to increase by up to 4.1°C in winter and decrease by up to 3.8°C in summer. . The effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge on water temperature is expected to gradually diminish downstream of the discharge location. The potentially affected section of the river is expected to extend from the discharge location to the confluence with the West Holland River. Downstream of the confluence the effect of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge is expected to be minimal. . The Water Reclamation Centre discharge is expected to provide a moderating effect on water temperatures during the summer low flow, high water temperature receiver conditions.

Figure 5.1 summarizes the overall expected thermal effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge as changes in mean monthly water temperatures during the simulation period at all evaluated locations in the East Holland River. Figure 5.2 shows the mean daily change, maximum daily increase, and maximum daily decrease of water temperatures during the simulation period at the eight locations. Both figures illustrate that the section of the river from the proposed discharge location to approximately 1 kilometre (km) downstream is expected to be most affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge; the section from 1 km downstream to the confluence is expected to be moderately affected; and the section from the confluence to Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe minimally affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge.

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Figure 5.1: Changes in Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

50 m 100 m 250 m 500 m 1,000 m 2,500 m Confluence Lake Simcoe 5

3 C]

o 2

-1

-2 Monthly water temperature change [ change temperature water Monthly

-3

-4

-5

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Figure 5.2: Changes in Daily Water Temperatures in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

Average Maximum Increase Maximum Decrease 8

6 C] o 5

3 Water temperature change [ change temperature Water

1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1 0.5

0.1 0.0 0 50 m 100 m 250 m 500 m 1,000 m 2,500 m Confluence Lake Simcoe

The potential river ice effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge are expected to include the following:

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. The seasonal ice duration is predicted to be shortened by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge. In the winter of 2010-2011, at the location 2.5 kilometres (km) downstream of the discharge location, the ice duration was predicted to be reduced by 7 days, from 94 days to 87 days. At the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers the ice duration is predicted to be reduced by less than 2 days. . The section of the East Holland River located downstream of the discharge location may potentially become unsafe for winter recreation usage. As a result, safety measures (warning signs, diversion of snowmobile routes, etc.) need to be investigated/implemented.

Figure 5.3 summarizes the overall expected river ice effects of the Water Reclamation Centre discharge as changes in mean monthly ice thickness during the simulation period at all assessed locations in the East Holland River. Figure 5.4 shows the mean and maximum daily decrease of ice thickness during the simulation period at the eight locations. The figures again show that about the first 1 km of the river downstream of the discharge location may be most affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge; the next 3 km may be a section in the river where the magnitude of the Water Reclamation Centre effects is predicted to sharply decrease; and the last section of the river from the confluence to Cook's Bay/Lake Simcoe may be minimally affected by the Water Reclamation Centre discharge.

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Figure 5.3: Changes in Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

50 m 100 m 250 m 500 m 1,000 m 2,500 m Confluence Lake Simcoe 0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3 Ice thickness change [m] change Ice thickness

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

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Figure 5.4: Changes in Daily Ice Thickness in the East Holland River as a result of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

Average Maximum 0.0 -0.01 0.00

-0.1

-0.16 -0.2

-0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.3 -0.27 -0.27

-0.4 Ice thickness change [m] change Ice thickness

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7 50 m 100 m 250 m 500 m 1,000 m 2,500 m Confluence Lake Simcoe

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Section 6.0 References

Bolton, D. 1980. The Computation of Equivalent Potential Temperature. Monthly Weather Review, 108: 1046 – 1053.

Cole, T.M. and Wells, S.A. 2011. CE-QUAL-W2: A Two-Dimensional, Laterally Averaged, Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model, Version 3.71 User Manual. Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207-0751. Conestoga-Rovers & Associates (CRA), AECOM, and Black & Veatch, November 2011. Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Modelling of the Proposed Water Reclamation Centre Discharge to the East Holland River. Prepared for The Regional Municipality of York.

______2012. Comprehensive Assimilative Capacity Study of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge. Prepared for The Regional Municipality of York.

Edinger, J.E. and E.M. Buchak. 1975. A Hydrodynamic and Two-Dimensional Reservoir Model: The Computational Basis. Contract No. DACW27-74-C-0200, U.S. Army Engineer Division, Ohio River. Cincinnati, Ohio.

Environment Canada. 2012 (2012a). National Climate Data and Information Archive. http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climate_normals/index_e.html. Accessed on October 1, 2012.

______. 2012 (2012b). National Climate Data and Information Archive. http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/prods_servs/glossary_e.html#weather. Accessed on October 1, 2012.

Portland State University, 2012. CE-QUAL-W2 Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model. http://www.ce.pdx.edu/w2/. Accessed on December 1, 2012.

Tetra Tech Inc.. 2007. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code User Manual, US EPA Version 1.01.

______. 2009. Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model of the North Saskatchewan River. Prepared for North Saskatchewan Watershed Alliance.

USACE, 2010. HEC-HMS Hydrological Modelling System. User's Manual. Version 3.5. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center.

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Glossary of Terms

Alternative Both alternative methods and alternatives to a proposed undertaking.

Alternative Methods of Different ways of doing the same activity. Alternative methods Carrying out the could include consideration of one or more of the following Undertaking alternative technologies; alternative methods of applying specific (Interchangeable with technologies; alternative sites for a proposed undertaking; Alternative Methods) alternative design methods; and alternative methods of operating any facilities associated with a proposed undertaking.

Alternatives To the Functionally different ways of approaching and dealing with a Undertaking problem or opportunity. (Interchangeable with Alternatives To)

Aquatic Refers to an environment that consists of, relates to, or is in water; or to animals and plants living or growing in, on, or near the water.

Assimilative Capacity Capacity of a natural body of water (lake, river, sea, etc.) to receive wastewaters and naturally treat those wastewaters without harmful effects and damage to aquatic life and humans who consume water from the water body.

Bathymetry Measurement of the depth of waterbodies (ocean, sea, lake and river) and data derived.

Corps of Engineers – CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional, longitudinal/vertical, QUALlity – Width hydrodynamic and water quality model. Since the model averaged 2D assumes lateral homogeneity, it is best suited for relatively long (CE-QUAL-W2) and narrow water bodies exhibiting longitudinal and vertical water quality gradients. The model has been applied to rivers, lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, and their combinations. CE-QUAL-W2 can simulate water level, flow velocity, water temperature, ice cover, 28 water quality state variables and over 60 derived variables (Cole and Wells, 2011).

Confluence The point where two or more bodies of water meet and start flowing together.

Criteria / Criterion A set of principles or standards used to compare and judge alternatives (plural = "criteria", singular = "criterion").

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Glossary of Terms

(Department of) Fisheries DFO is the lead federal government department responsible for and Oceans Canada (DFO) developing and implementing policies and programs in support of Canada's economic, ecological, and scientific interests in oceans and inland waters.

Discharge (Water The flow of treated sewage effluent from a sewage treatment Reclamation Centre plant, In this case the flow of treated sewage effluent from the Discharge) Water Reclamation Centre.

Effluent Compliance Limit Regulatory limit on the concentration of a constituent in the effluent from a wastewater treatment facility. Exceeding the limit constitutes non-compliance and may result in legal sanctions.

Effluent Limit Limit or level of discharge water quality to be achieved by a sewage treatment plant.

Effluent objective Objective for the concentration of a constituent in the effluent from a wastewater treatment facility. The objectives are not enforceable, but achievement of objectives signifies a well-operating facility. Objectives are more stringent than compliance limits.

Environmental Fluid EFDC model simulates heat transfer both vertically and Dynamics Code (EFDC) horizontally. In the vertical direction, air-water heat exchange consists of five components: solar radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat exchange, sensible heat exchange, and bed heat exchange. In the lateral direction, e.g., along a river, heat is transferred in the form of convection, including conduction and advection. Conduction happens due to the temperature difference between locations, and advection is a phenomenon of heat transfer along with bulk water flow. The EFDC model was developed at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. The model has been applied to Virginia's James and York River estuaries and to the entire Chesapeake Bay estuarine system. It is currently used in a wide range of studies, including simulation of power plant cooling water discharges, pollutant and pathogenic organism transport and fate from point and non-point sources (Tetra Tech, 2007).

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Glossary of Terms

Environment The Environmental Assessment Act defines "environment" broadly to include: i) air, land or water ii) plant or animal life, including human life iii) social, economic, and cultural conditions influencing the life of humans or a community iv) any building, structure, machine or other device or thing made by humans v) any solid, liquid, gas, odour, heat, sound, vibration, or radiation resulting directly or indirectly from the human activities vi) any part or combination of the foregoing and the interrelationships between any two or more of them, in or of Ontario

Environmental A generic term for a study that assesses the potential Assessment (EA) environmental effects (positive or negative) of a proposal. Key components of an environmental assessment include consultation with government agencies and the public; consideration and evaluation of alternatives; and the management of potential environmental effects. Conducting an environmental assessment promotes good environmental planning before decisions are made about proceeding with a proposal. For the purposes of this Terms of Reference, an Environmental Assessment refers to the process and related documentation, including the submission of a Terms of Reference and final Environmental Assessment Report for approval by the Minister of the Environment, in accordance with the requirements of Part II of the EA Act.

Environmental Legislation that defines a decision-making process used to Assessment Act (EA Act) promote good environmental planning by assessing the potential effects of certain activities on the environment. The purpose of the EA Act is the betterment of the people of the whole or any part of Ontario by providing for the protection, conservation and wise management in Ontario of the environment.

Geographic Information A system for creating, storing, analyzing and managing spatial System (GIS) data and associated attributes.

Guidelines Not legally enforceable; guidelines are established by government or other agencies to provide general guidance.

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Glossary of Terms

Habitat The physical location or type of environment in which an organism or biological population occurs or lives, grows, and carries out life processes.

Headwaters The source of water at the top of a drainage system.

Impact Assessment The process of studying and identifying the future consequences of a current or proposed action.

Individual Environmental See Environmental Assessment. Assessment (IEA)

Lake Simcoe Protection Enacted in 2008, provides the authority for the Minister of the Act, 2008 Environment to establish the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan. The purpose of the Act is to protect and restore the ecological health of the Lake Simcoe watershed.

Lake Simcoe Protection Established under the authority of Lake Simcoe Protection Act, Plan 2008, the objectives of the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan, approved June 2009, include to protect, improve or restore the elements that contribute to the ecological health of the Lake Simcoe watershed, including, water quality, hydrology, key natural heritage features and their functions, and key hydrologic features and their functions.

Lake Simcoe Region Established under the Conservation Authorities Act (1946), the Conservation Authority LSRCA prepares and delivers programs for the management of (LSRCA) the renewable natural resources within watersheds in its jurisdiction.

Lakes and Rivers Enacted in 1990, provides for the management, protection, Improvement Act preservation, and use of the waters of the lakes and rivers of Ontario and the land under them.

MASL Metres Above Mean Sea Level.

Minister of the The Minister of the Environment is responsible under the EA Act Environment (Minister) for final approval of the ToR and the EA.

Ministry of the The Ministry of the Environment is responsible for protecting air, Environment (MOE) land and water to ensure healthy communities, ecological protection, and sustainable development for present and future generations of Ontarians.

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Glossary of Terms

Ministry of Natural The Ministry of Natural Resources manages and protects Resources (MNR) Ontario's natural resources for wise use across the province.

Monitoring A systematic method for collecting information using standard observations according to a schedule and over a sustained period of time.

Natural Environment A term that encompasses all living and non-living things occurring naturally on Earth or some region thereof.

Ontario Water Resources The OWRA provides for the conservation, protection and Act (OWRA) management of Ontario's waters and for their efficient and sustainable use to promote Ontario's long-term environmental, social and economic well-being.

Parameter A measurable or quantifiable characteristic or feature of water quality.

Preferred Alternative The alternative selected as the undertaking for which approval would be sought, based on an approach for identifying a preferred alternative, namely: a) Identify a recommended alternative b) Consult review agencies and the public on the recommended alternative c) Confirm or select the preferred alternative based on the comments received

Proposed Queensville The alternative described herein is considered as proposed until Sideroad Outfall the Undertaking identified through the UYSS EA is approved by Discharge Location for the Minister of the Environment. the Water Reclamation Centre

Provincial Water Quality Numerical and narrative criteria which serve as chemical and Objectives (PWQO) physical indicators representing a satisfactory level for surface waters (i.e. lakes and rivers) and, where it discharges to the surface, the ground water of the Province. PWQO is published by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Energy and is intended to provide guidance in making water quality management decisions.

Public Means the general public, individual members of the public who may be affected by or have an interest in a project and special interest groups.

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Glossary of Terms

Receiver A waterbody to which a treated sewage effluent discharge is directed.

Regulations A rule or directive made pursuant to legislation and enforced by an authority, like the Ontario Ministry of the Environment.

Review agencies Means government agencies, ministries, or public authorities or bodies whose mandates require them to have jurisdiction over matters affected or potentially affected by projects. This includes municipalities other than the proponent.

(UYSS) Service Area Area to be serviced by the undertaking consisting of the growth portions of the Towns of Aurora, Newmarket, and East Gwillimbury, including Holland Landing, Queensville, and Sharon.

Surface Water Water that exists above the substrate or soil surface, including runoff from precipitation events and snow melt, typically occurring in streams, creeks, rivers, lakes, ponds and wetlands.

Terms of Reference (ToR) The first step in an application for approval to proceed with a project or undertaking under the Environmental Assessment Act is the submission of a Terms of Reference (ToR) for the Environmental Assessment (EA). Public and agency consultation is required on the preparation and submission of the ToR to the Ministry of the Environment. Approval is required by the Minister of the Environment. If approved, the ToR provides a framework / work plan for the EA.

Undertaking An enterprise, activity, proposal, plan or program in respect of a commercial or business enterprise or activity of a person or persons that has potential environmental effects and is assessed in accordance with the requirements of the Environmental Assessment Act.

Upper York/upper York Upper York is defined as the general area of York Region within the Lake Simcoe watershed.

Water Reclamation Centre A wastewater (sewage) treatment plant for treatment or processing of wastewater to make it reusable by meeting appropriate water quality criteria.

Watershed An area that is drained by a river and its tributaries.

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Glossary of Terms

Wet Bulb Temperature Temperature a parcel of air would have if it were cooled to saturation by the evaporation of water into it, with the latent heat being supplied by the parcel.

Wetland Lands that are seasonally or permanently covered by shallow water, as well as lands where the water table is close to or at the surface. In either case the presence of abundant water has caused the formation of soils saturated with water and has favoured the dominance of either hydrophytic plants or water tolerant plants. The four major types of wetlands are swamps, marshes, bogs, and fens.

York Durham Sewage A centralized wastewater collection and treatment system for both System (YDSS) York and Durham Regions.

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APPENDICES

Appendix A EFDC Model Calibration Results

Appendix B CE-QUAL-W2 Model Pre- / Post-Processing Tools Development

Appendix C CE-QUAL-W2 Model Calibration Results

Appendix D EFDC Simulation Results

Appendix E CE-QUAL-W2 Simulation Results

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Appendix A

EFDC Model Calibration Results

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

List of Figures

Page

Figure A-1 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event A-1

Figure A-2 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations - Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event A-2

Figure A-3 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event A-3

Figure A-4 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations - Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event A-4

Figure A-5 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event A-5

Figure A-6 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities - Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event A-6

Figure A-7 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event A-7

Figure A-8 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities - Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event A-8

Figure A-9 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event A-9

Figure A-10 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures - Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event A-10

Figure A-11 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event A-11

Figure A-12 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures - Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event A-12

Figure A-13 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures for the Period April 8, 2012 – March 31, 2013 A-13

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-1: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

219.00 Observed Modelled

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Water surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation surface Water

218.60

218.55

218.50 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-2: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations – Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

219.00

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Modelled water surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation surface water Modelled

218.60

218.55

218.50 218.50 218.55 218.60 218.65 218.70 218.75 218.80 218.85 218.90 218.95 219.00 Observed water surface elevation [mAMSL]

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Figure A-3: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event

219.00 Observed Modelled

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Water surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation surface Water

218.60

218.55

218.50 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-4: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations – Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event

219.00

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Modelled water surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation surface water Modelled

218.60

218.55

218.50 218.50 218.55 218.60 218.65 218.70 218.75 218.80 218.85 218.90 218.95 219.00 Observed water surface elevation [mAMSL]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-5: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

0.50 Observed Modelled

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

0.25 Flow velocity [m/s] 0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-6: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities – Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40 Modelled flow velocity [m/s]

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Observed flow velocity [m/s]

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Figure A-7: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event

0.50 Observed Modelled

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

0.25 Flow velocity [m/s] 0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-8: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities – Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40 Modelled flow velocity [m/s]

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Observed flow velocity [m/s]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-9: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

5.0 Observed Modelled

4.5

4.0

3.5 C]

o 3.0

2.5

2.0 Water temperature [ temperature Water

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Figure A-10: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures – Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5 C] o

3.0

2.5

2.0 Modelled water temperature [ temperature water Modelled 1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 o Observed water temperature [ c]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-11: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event

5.0 Observed Modelled

4.5

4.0

3.5 C]

o 3.0

2.5

2.0 Water temperature [ temperature Water

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-12: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures – Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Calibration Event

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5 C] o

3.0

2.5

2.0 Modelled water temperature [ temperature water Modelled 1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 o Observed water temperature [ c]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure A-13: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures for the Period April 8, 2012 – March 31, 2013

Observed Modelled 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ temperature Water

0 11/02/2012 01/04/2012 21/05/2012 10/07/2012 29/08/2012 18/10/2012 07/12/2012 26/01/2013 17/03/2013 06/05/2013

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Appendix B

CE-QUAL-W2 Model Pre- / Post-Processing Tools Development

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Table of Contents

Page

1.0 Pre-Processing Tools B-1

2.0 Post-Processing Tools B-8

List of Figures

Page

Figure B-1 CE-QUAL-W2 Segment Illustration B-1

Figure B-2 Geographical User Interface for Bathymetry File Generation B-2

Figure B-3 Channel Centerlines and Cross Sections B-4

Figure B-4 Segments Generation Illustration B-5

Figure B-5 Width Interpolation at a Cross Section B-6

Figure B-6 Integrated GUI for Debugging of the CE-QUAL-W2 Model B-7

Figure B-7 GUI for CE-QUAL-W2 Post-processing B-9

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Section 1.0 Pre-Processing Tools

The CE-QUAL-W2 model requires the development of a bathymetry file (default filename bth.npt). This file defines the horizontal and vertical geographical representation of the area of interest and includes six parameters: (1) segment length, (2) initial water surface elevation, (3) segment orientation, (4) friction coefficient (either Chezy coefficient or Manning’s roughness), (5) width at specific vertical coordinate (Z value), and (6) vertical layer height (can be variable or constant from one layer to another).

A single segment illustration is shown in Figure B-1. A segment requires the width for each vertical layer (layer 1, layer 2, and layer …) to be specified in the bth.npt file. The procedure is:

. create two cross sections (1) and (2) . at each cross section, find each layer center vertical coordinate and calculate the widths at these coordinates along cross sections (1) and (2) . for each layer e.g. layer 1, the segment width of this layer is the average value of the widths at layers 1 and 2

Figure B-1: CE-QUAL-W2 Segment Illustration

To generate the six parameters for the bth.npt file, two data sources are required, river shoreline boundary, and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) covering the study area. The DEM was generated from the bathymetry data prepared for the assimilative capacity study (CRA 2011b). The river shoreline is used for manually creating centerline and auto-generating cross sections

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

based on the centerline polyline vertices. The DEM is used to extract polyline vertices elevations.

An in-house computer program was developed in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) for generating the six parameters required in the bathymetry file. The graphical user interface (GUI) of the program is presented in Figure B-2.

Figure B-2: Geographical User Interface for Bathymetry File Generation

The following procedure was built in the program to generate the required bathymetry parameters:

1. Create river centerlines. Manually create centerlines from Holland Landing (the upstream model domain end) to Lake Simcoe (the downstream model domain end) in ArcMap. Four centerlines (main channel, West Holland River, Queensville Drain, and Soldier’s Bay) were created (see Figure B-3). Each centerline is stored in a separate polyline shapefile. 2. Generate centerline point shapefile, and add its vertices into this point shapefile (with name center_pt). 3. Calculate segment length and orientation. As shown in Figure B-4, connect two adjacent points in center_pt to get the segment length and orientation. The orientation is defined from upstream to downstream, and originates from the south to segment length direction.

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

4. Find the nearest and symmetric points for center_pt point. This process is illustrated in Figure B-4. For each point in center_pt, find its nearest vertex along river shoreline boundary (name River Bank), and find its corresponding symmetry point. 5. Generate cross section. Connect the nearest and symmetric points to generate a cross section. Cross sections created this way should generally be perpendicular to flow direction. In case of exceptions, manually adjust the cross sections to be perpendicular to flow direction. 6. Densify cross section polyline. After step 5 each cross section has two vertices (the nearest and symmetric points), which are densified by adding vertices every five meters along each cross section. 7. Convert cross section polyline to point shapefile. The elevations of the generated points are extracted from DEM. The conversion uses the algorithm defined in step 2. 8. Extract cross section point elevations. Point elevations are extracted from the DEM. 9. Identify model branches. The centerlines main channel, West Holland River, Queensville Drain, and Soldier's Bay are separate branches. 10. Split vertically each cross section given layer height . Given a cross section, find the lowest and highest elevation (Zmin and Zmax). Starting from the lowest elevation 푖 Zmin, the height right above z value is Zi equals Zmin +∆푧 , by adding to the layer z value underneath until above Zmax. ∆푧푖 ∆푧푖 11. Interpolate cross section width at every Zi. Width calculation is illustrated on Figure B-5. The widths w1 and w2 are calculated by the following equations:

1 = ( 1 2) + ( 1 2) , Equation (1) 2 = ( 3 4) 2 + ( 3 4)2 Equation (2) 푤 � 푥 − 푥 푦 − 푦 2 2 푤 � 푥 − 푥 푦 − 푦 12. After the widths of segments at the different Zi are calculated, along with the segment lengths and orientations (defined in step 3), initial water surface elevation (high enough to avoid starting CE-QUAL-W2 simulation with dry cell), friction coefficient (Manning's N coefficient) are written into bth.npt file.

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure B-3: Channel Centrelines and Cross Sections

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Figure B-4: Segments Generation Illustration

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Figure B-5: Width Interpolation at a Cross Section

219.2

219.0

218.8

218.6 Elevation [m]

218.4 w2 (x3, y3, z2) (x4, y4, z2)

w1 218.2 (x1, y1, z1) (x2, y2, z1)

218.0 Cross section

The CE-QUAL-W2 control file (CE- default file name w2_con.npt) contains such parameters as branch connectivity (downstream and upstream for each branch), boundary type (flow or water surface elevation), simulation switch (e.g. water quality, ice, and water temperature).

In addition to the bth.npt and w2_con.npt files, the other model input files are used for defining boundary flow, water temperature, and meteorological parameters:

. qin_br1.npt, qin_br2.npt, qin_br3.npt: inflow rate at the upstream end of branch 1 (the East Holland River at Holland Landing), branch 2 (West Holland River), branch 3 (Queensville) . tin_br1.npt, tin_br2.npt, tin_br3.npt: water temperature at the upstream end of branches 1, 2, and 3 . edh_br1.npt, eth_br1.npt: downstream head and water temperature at the downstream end of branch 1 (at Lake Simcoe)

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

. met.npt: meteorological input file consisting of air temperature, dew point, wind direction, wind speed, cloud cover, and incident short wave solar radiation . shade.npt: solar radiation shading coefficient . wsc.npt: wind shelter coefficient

For easy debugging of the CE-QUAL-W2 model, an integrated GUI was developed in Microsoft Visual C# 2010 in-house as shown on Figure B-6. The GUI has abilities to open w2_con.npt editor (by calling W2_Control37.exe), check input parameter errors (by calling preW2- 37_32.exe), run CE-QUAL-W2 model (by calling w2_ivf32.exe), open model post-processor (by calling W2_Post3.exe), and convert time series plot files to comma separated values files for displaying ice thickness in GIS.

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure B-6: Integrated GUI for Debugging of the CE-QUAL-W2 Model

Section 2.0 Post-Processing Tools

A post-processing tool was developed for generating ice thickness spatial distribution maps as well as to aid in the debugging process. Although CE-QUAL-W2 3.7.1 released a post- processor, it displays selected parameters (e.g. horizontal/vertical velocity, water temperate) in a branch by branch manner, i.e. it cannot display the branches with their geometries in a single figure; in addition, it is not geo-referenced. The post-processing tool was developed in VBA/ArcObject and Microsoft Visual C# 2010, its GUI in presented on Figure B-7. It can display any parameters exported in time series plot text file, including ice thickness.

This tool uses the results from the csv file converted from time series plot. As seen on Figure B-7, there are overlap areas between model segments, e.g. segments 99 and 110,

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA segments 119 and 120. This would cause problems in interpreting ice thickness within the overlapped areas. Hence, the segment polygons were converted to polylines and then to points for interpolating to raster.

Figure B-7: GUI for CE-QUAL-W2 Post-processing

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Appendix C

CE-QUAL-W2 Model Calibration Results

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List of Figures

Page

Figure C-1 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event C-1

Figure C-2 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations - Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event C-2

Figure C-3 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 8, 2011 Validation Event C-3

Figure C-4 Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations - Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Validation Event C-4

Figure C-5 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event C-5

Figure C-6 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities - Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event C-6

Figure C-7 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 8, 2011 Validation Event C-7

Figure C-8 Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities - Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Validation Event C-8

Figure C-9 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event C-9

Figure C-10 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures - Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event C-10

Figure C-11 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 8, 2011 Validation Event C-11

Figure C-12 Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures - Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Validation Event C-12

Figure C-13 Observed and Modelled Ice Thickness at CRA Field Test Location SW33 (Queensville) C-13

Figure C-14 Observed and Modelled Ice Thickness at CRA Field Test Location SW40 (Ravenshoe) C-14

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Figure C-1: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

219.00 Observed Modelled

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Wate r surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation r surface Wate

218.60

218.55

218.50 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-2: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations – Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

219.00

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Modelled water surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation surface water Modelled

218.60

218.55

218.50 218.50 218.55 218.60 218.65 218.70 218.75 218.80 218.85 218.90 218.95 219.00 Observed water surface elevation [mAMSL]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-3: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations. December 8, 2011 Validation Event

219.00 Observed Modelled

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Wate r surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation r surface Wate

218.60

218.55

218.50 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-4: Observed and Modelled Water Surfaces Elevations – Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Validation Event

219.00

218.95

218.90

218.85

218.80

218.75

218.70

218.65 Modelled water surface elevation [mAMSL] elevation surface water Modelled

218.60

218.55

218.50 218.50 218.55 218.60 218.65 218.70 218.75 218.80 218.85 218.90 218.95 219.00 Observed water surface elevation [mAMSL]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-5: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

0.25 Observed Modelled

0.20

0.15 Flow velocity [m/s] 0.10

0.05

0.00 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Figure C-6: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities – Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10 Modelled flow velocity [m/s]

0.05

0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 Observed flow velocity [m/s]

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Figure C-7: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities. December 8, 2011 Validation Event

0.25 Observed Modelled

0.20

0.15 Flow velocity [m/s] 0.10

0.05

0.00 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Figure C-8: Observed and Modelled Flow Velocities – Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Validation Event

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10 Modelled flow velocity [m/s]

0.05

0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 Observed flow velocity [m/s]

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Figure C-9: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

5.0 Observed Modelled

4.5

4.0

3.5 C]

o 3.0

2.5

2.0 Water temperature [ temperature Water

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

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Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-10: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures – Scatter Plot. December 1, 2011 Calibration Event

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5 C] o

3.0

2.5

2.0 Modelled water temperature [ temperature water Modelled 1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 o Observed water temperature [ C]

050278 (87) APP-C Page C-10 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-11: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures. December 8, 2011 Validation Event

5.0 Observed Modelled

4.5

4.0

3.5 C]

o 3.0

2.5

2.0 Water temperature [ temperature Water

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Distance from Lake Simcoe [m]

050278 (87) APP-C Page C-11 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-12: Observed and Modelled Water Temperatures – Scatter Plot. December 8, 2011 Validation Event

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5 C] o

3.0

2.5

2.0 Modelled water temperature [ temperature water Modelled 1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 o Observed water temperature [ C]

050278 (87) APP-C Page C-12 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-13: Observed and Modelled Ice Thickness at CRA Field Monitoring Location SW33 (Queensville)

Observed Modelled 0.40

0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20 Ice thickness [m]

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00 28/09/2012 18/10/2012 07/11/2012 27/11/2012 17/12/2012 06/01/2013 26/01/2013 15/02/2013 07/03/2013 27/03/2013 16/04/2013

050278 (87) APP-C Page C-13 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure C-14: Observed and Modelled Ice Thickness at CRA Field Monitoring Location SW40 (Ravenshoe)

Observed Modelled 0.40

0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20 Ice thickness [m]

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00 28/09/2012 18/10/2012 07/11/2012 27/11/2012 17/12/2012 06/01/2013 26/01/2013 15/02/2013 07/03/2013 27/03/2013 16/04/2013

050278 (87) APP-C Page C-14 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Appendix D

EFDC Simulation Results

050278 (87) APP-D York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

List of Figures

Page

Figure D-1: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-1

Figure D-2: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-2

Figure D-3: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-3

Figure D-4: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-4

Figure D-5: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-5

Figure D-6: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-6

Figure D-7: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Confluence of the West Holland River and the East Holland River for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-7

Figure D-8: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River at Cook’s Bay/Lake Simcoe for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012 D-8

Figure D-9: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario 'Maximum Winter Water Temperature Increase' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-9

Figure D-10: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario 'Maximum Winter Water Temperature Increase' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-10

050278 (87) APP-D York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

List of Figures

Page

Figure D-11: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Minimum Winter Water Temperature Increase' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-11

Figure D-12: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Minimum Winter Water Temperature Increase' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-12

Figure D-13: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Winter Water Temperature Increase' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-13

Figure D-14: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Winter Water Temperature Increase' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-14

Figure D-15: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Maximum Summer Water Temperature Decrease’ without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-15

Figure D-16: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Maximum Summer Water Temperature Decrease’ with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-16

Figure D-17: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Annual Water Temperature Change’ without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-17

Figure D-18: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Annual Water Temperature Change’ with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge D-18

050278 (87) APP-D York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-1: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012

Without WRC With WRC 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ 10

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-1 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-2: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012

Without WRC With WRC 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ 10

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-2 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-3: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012

Without WRC With WRC 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ 10

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-3 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-4: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012

Without WRC With WRC 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ 10

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-4 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-5: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012

Without WRC With WRC 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ 10

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-5 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-6: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012

Without WRC With WRC 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ 10

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-6 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Without WRC With WRC 30

20 C] o

15 Water temperature [ 10

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-7 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-8: Mean Monthly Water Temperatures in the East Holland River at Cook’s Bay/Lake Simcoe for the Simulation Period October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2012

Without WRC With WRC 25

20 C] o 15

10 Water temperature [

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-8 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-9: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario 'Maximum Winter Water Temperature Increase' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-9 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-10: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario 'Maximum Winter Water Temperature Increase' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-10 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-11: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Minimum Winter Water Temperature Increase' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-11 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-12: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Minimum Winter Water Temperature Increase' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-12 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-13: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Winter Water Temperature Increase' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-13 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-14: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Winter Water Temperature Increase' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-14 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-15: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Maximum Summer Water Temperature Decrease’ without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-15 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-16: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Maximum Summer Water Temperature Decrease’ with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-16 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-17: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Annual Water Temperature Change’ without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-17 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure D-18: Spatial Distribution of Water Temperatures in the East Holland River for the Scenario ‘Mean Annual Water Temperature Change’ with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-D Page D-18 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Appendix E

CE-QUAL-W2 Simulation Results

050278 (87) APP-E York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

List of Figures

Page

Figure E-1: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location E-1

Figure E-2: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location E-2

Figure E-3: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location E-3

Figure E-4: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location E-4

Figure E-5: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location E-5

Figure E-6: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location E-6

Figure E-7: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Confluence of the West Holland River and the East Holland River E-7

Figure E-8: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland at Lake Simcoe E-8

Figure E-9: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-9

Figure E-10: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-10

050278 (87) APP-E York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

List of Figures

Page

Figure E-11: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario ‘Maximum Ice Melt' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-11

Figure E-12: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario ‘Maximum Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-12

Figure E-13: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-13

Figure E-14: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-14

Figure E-15: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario ' Maximum Ice Melt' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-15

Figure E-16: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario ' Maximum Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge E-16

050278 (87) APP-E York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-1: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 50 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-1 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-2: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 100 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-2 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-3: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-3 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-4: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-4 York Region No. 74270

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Figure E-5: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 1,000 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-5 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-6: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 2,500 m Downstream of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge Location

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-6 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-7: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland River 250 m Downstream of the Confluence of the West Holland River and the East Holland River

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-7 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-8: Mean Monthly Ice Thickness in the East Holland at Lake Simcoe

Without WRC With WRC 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3 Ice thickness [m]

0.2

0.1

0.0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-8 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-9: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-9 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-10: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-10 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-11: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario ‘Maximum Ice Melt' without the Proposed Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-11 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-12: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2010-2011 Scenario ‘Maximum Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-12 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-13: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-13 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-14: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario 'Mean Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-14 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-15: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario ' Maximum Ice Melt' without the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-15 York Region No. 74270

Thermal Effects of the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge on the East Holland River Upper York Sewage Solutions EA

Figure E-16: Spatial Distribution of Ice Thickness in the East Holland River for the Winter 2011-2012 Scenario ' Maximum Ice Melt' with the Water Reclamation Centre Discharge

050278 (87) APP-E Page E-16 York Region No. 74270