FANTASY FOOTBALL FOR BLOOD AND PROFIT 2ND EDITION – 2007 SEASON By Pete Smits Senior Writer for Copyright © 2007 by Pete Smits. All rights reserved. You may not reproduce this document for any reason other than your own personal use. You are hereby advised that individuals re-selling, publicly posting or otherwise distributing this document without the express authorization and written permission of the author will be pursued to the fullest extent that the law allows. We will do everything in our power to ensure the value of this document for those who have purchased it. Pete Smits Page 1 8/3/2007 Copyright © 2007 by Pete Smits Table of Contents A comprehensive systematic approach that consistently provides playoff opportunities in any league Preface to the Second Edition ........................................... 5 “So what’s new this year?” .......................................................................................... 5 INTRODUCTION................................................................... 6 “How can I make the playoffs (almost) every year in every league?” ..................... 6 OVERVIEW of METHODS ................................................... 8 “So, what should I do differently?”............................................................................. 8 “Will I start this player in the upcoming week?” ...................................................... 9 STARTING CONSIDERATIONS......................................... 12 “How badly do you want to win?” ............................................................................ 12 “Is this the right league for me?” .............................................................................. 16 “What do the other owners think of you?” .............................................................. 24 “What is the playing field of your league?”............................................................. 28 “Do you want to run the show?” ............................................................................... 32 A WINNING APPROACH ................................................... 35 “Why do some teams always finish in the running?”.............................................. 35 NO OFF-SEASON .............................................................. 50 “You don’t really need a break, do you?” ................................................................ 50 “Can I take it easy once in awhile?”.......................................................................... 78 SHOOTOUT AT THE FF CORRAL .................................... 80 “Who wants it here? Who wants it the most?” ....................................................... 80 ¿ Quién es mas macho?............................................................................................... 80 “Are you sticking to the plan?” ................................................................................. 80 “When is your draft?”................................................................................................ 89 “How do you measure the quality of a draft choice?”............................................. 90 “Are there any downsides to the players available?”.............................................. 96 “Are there any top players at their positions available?”..................................... 101 “Will this player be available on the waiver wire? If so, think again.” ............... 102 “Have you made all of the necessary adjustments?”............................................. 111 THE WEEKLY BUSINESS AT HAND............................... 112 Pete Smits Page 2 8/3/2007 Copyright © 2007 by Pete Smits “Do you have the time to do this right?” ................................................................ 112 “If acquired, will I start this player this week?”.................................................... 113 SUBMITTING THE LINE-UP CARDS .............................. 122 “Are you over thinking your starters?”.................................................................. 122 EVERY GAME IS A PLAYOFF GAME ............................. 124 “Are you ready to go from the opening gun?”....................................................... 124 GAME DAY ....................................................................... 127 “Are you ready for some football?!?”..................................................................... 127 PLAYOFF POSITIONING................................................. 132 “Are you in it to win it?” .......................................................................................... 132 TRADES: TAKE ‘EM or LEAVE ‘EM ............................... 139 “Are given an offer that you cannot refuse?” ........................................................ 139 VARIATIONS .................................................................... 141 “What else do you want to play? And why?”........................................................ 141 Appendix A ...................................................................... 153 “So, how do I get started?” ...................................................................................... 153 Appendix B ...................................................................... 155 “So, where should I look?”....................................................................................... 155 Appendix C ...................................................................... 156 “The Consistency Factor: Using Standard Deviation in Player Analysis”.......... 156 Pete Smits Page 3 8/3/2007 Copyright © 2007 by Pete Smits “Do you have the time to do this right?” ................................................................ 112 “If acquired, will I start this player this week?”.................................................... 113 SUBMITTING THE LINE-UP CARDS .............................. 122 “Are you over thinking your starters?”.................................................................. 122 EVERY GAME IS A PLAYOFF GAME ............................. 124 “Are you ready to go from the opening gun?”....................................................... 124 GAME DAY ....................................................................... 127 “Are you ready for some football?!?”..................................................................... 127 PLAYOFF POSITIONING................................................. 132 “Are you in it to win it?” .......................................................................................... 132 TRADES: TAKE ‘EM or LEAVE ‘EM ............................... 139 “Are given an offer that you cannot refuse?” ........................................................ 139 VARIATIONS .................................................................... 141 “What else do you want to play? And why?”........................................................ 141 Appendix A ...................................................................... 153 “So, how do I get started?” ...................................................................................... 153 Appendix B ...................................................................... 155 “So, where should I look?”....................................................................................... 155 Appendix C ...................................................................... 156 “The Consistency Factor: Using Standard Deviation in Player Analysis”.......... 156 Pete Smits Page 4 8/3/2007 Copyright © 2007 by Pete Smits Preface to the Second Edition “So what’s new this year?” In short, more of the same and more options and variations considered: as far as I can tell, most of the material that I am presenting here remains unique as a foundation for Fantasy Football (remember, it’s “FF” from here on out) strategy, so my fundamental goal is to make this text even more unique --- add statistical analysis that has not seen the light of day, but not overkill to the point that the message is lost. As far as specific sections, the following are added: 1) Pros and cons of being a commissioner; 2) A “lighter” approach to season-long fanaticism for those years where “real” life muscles into your priorities; 3) More detail on differing playoff structures and how to approach them; 4) Learning more from previous drafts in the same and different leagues; 5) Watching the commissioner and other rules-makers as needed; 6) Adjusting your draft strategy to when your actual draft is held; 7) Identifying and targeting the “carriers” --- the handful of players that can “carry” a solid team through the FF playoffs; and 8) Variations on a theme --- an overview of strategy in: a. Auction leagues; b. Keeper leagues; c. Scoring Only leagues; and d. IDP (“Individual Defensive Player”) leagues. The graphics, examples and specific situations for the returning sections are all updated and wherever there seemed a better way to state a case or make a point, the text was modified as necessary. I certainly appreciate the positive responses and feedback to the first edition --- along with the usual columns and updates through the season with my articles for Fantasy Insights, I’m planning on starting and running a Blog during the season to also include some of the premier contributors in the FF industry. In fact, in preparation for this edition, the BLOG is already there ---- www.blogspot.ff4bp.com ----- and, once we get rolling, that is, as soon as you have a chance to review this book, read the Fantasy Insights Pre-Season Report and now feel compelled to opine on FF, drop me