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Impact of Covid-19 on Beauty & Wellness

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Impact of Covid-19 on Beauty & Wellness IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON BEAUTY & WELLNESS July 2020 01 MACRO THEMES 02 INDUSTRY IMPACTS 03 CHANNEL AND CATEGORY SHIFTS 04 STRATEGIC REVIEW 05 IMPACT TO MANUFACTURING 06 SUB-SECTOR THEMES 07 TRENDS AND TAKEAWAYS TABLE OF CONTENTS OF TABLE Page 1 MACRO THEMES BEAUTY AMONG TOP 10 NEGATIVELY IMPACTED COVID-19 HAS LED US INDUSTRIES (ESTIMATED PROBABILITY 25-35% INDUSTRY LEVEL RETAIL SERIES 2019-2020, % GROWTH, INTO UNCHARTED 2019 CONSTANT PRICES, FIXED YEAR EXCHANGE RATE) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 TERRITORY Luxury Goods Personal Accessories MACRO THEMES Apparel and Footwear Eyewear Tobacco The current pandemic has impacted virtually every facet Beauty and Personal Care of the economy and consumers’ day-to-day lives. Consumer Electronics Consumer Health Rising unemployment rates, reduced discretionary Consumer Appliances Home and Garden spending, social distancing and lockdown restrictions have Alcoholic Drinks altered consumer behavior. Soft Drinks Retail Tissue and Hygiene Significant discrepancies between winners and losers as Hot Drinks those sub-sectors most exposed to physical retail and Toys and Games without a digital presence have taken the biggest hit. Pet Care Home Care Fresh Food Successes defined by the strength of the digital Packaged Food proposition, ability to fulfill orders during quarantine and connection and direct relationship with the consumer. Baseline COVID-19 Deep Recession Case Rapid acceleration in the ongoing shift to digital. Positive Positive Negative Negative Accelerated consciousness of health, wellness and sustainability. _____________________ Source: Euromonitor. Page 2 IMPACT ON THE CONSUMER LANDSCAPE BOTH RETAILERS AND CONSUMERS ARE REACTING TO THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE AT A PACE NEVER BEFORE EXPERIENCED RETAIL CONSUMER Businesses are being forced to adapt quickly and will need to Lockdown restrictions have led to social distancing, accelerated make investments in e‐commerce technology, digital customer shifts to remote working and likely reductions in domestic and acquisition, online ordering and delivery / logistics infrastructure, international business travel going forward. in order to remain competitive. Channel disruption has caused consumers to flock to the E- Successful consumer businesses in today’s world must have a commerce channel as retail has been largely closed for an sophisticated E-commerce infrastructure that can satisfy extended period of time – it will be interesting to see how much meaningfully increased demand and associated fulfillment. of this short‐term demand affects the long-term pace of e‐commerce vs. brick and mortar growth. All of the ongoing changes are leading to a significant number of distressed retailers / brands, rife with share gains and acquisition opportunities. Reduced discretionary income and focus on saving money during these uncertain times means consumers may trade down to lower-priced, value-for-money products versus the prestige / Consumer companies are now reforecasting expected levels of premium offerings. revenue, profitability and cash flow for 2020, but the ability to do so is understandably challenged. Re-evaluation of values during COVID-19 like safety, hygiene, wellness and importance of quality time with family likely to cause Innovation expected with new business models likely to emerge as longer-term shifts in consumer spending priorities. agile businesses (existing and new) respond to consumer needs. Page 3 TRENDS AFFECTING THE CONSUMER INDUSTRY SURVIVAL INSTINCTS COMPANY CHALLENGES CONSUMER SHIFTS Recovery will coincide Darwinian Shakeout Discount Mindset with a recessionary market, The crisis will shake out the weak, Decade-long build-up of bargain culture compelling players to embolden the strong and accelerate the will be exacerbated by a rise in ramp up resilience planning decline of struggling companies anti-consumerism, a glut in inventory and and adapt models cash-strapped consumers trading down Companies must adapt by evaluating Surviving companies divestiture and acquisition opportunities To reach increasingly frugal and will have made bold and rapid to strengthen their core and capture disillusioned consumers, brands must interventions to stabilize whitespaces that emerge find inventive ways to regain value their core business 100,000 56% (32%) Expected retail store Consumers who said closures by 2025, a trend special promotions were an Decline in important factor when shopping cosmetics retail revenue accelerated by COVID-19 during initial stages Digital Escalation of COVID-19 crisis Innovation Imperative To cope with new restrictions, mitigate Social distancing has highlighted the importance of digital channels the impact of the pandemic and adapt to and lockdowns have elevated digital consumer shifts, companies must as an urgent priority embrace new strategies to future-proof Unless companies scale up and Players must harness innovations and strengthen their digital capabilities, quickly scale what works in order to make they will suffer in the longer term radical and enduring changes Value chain is disrupted >700% leading to rapid scaling of YoY Increase in livestreaming innovation from digital on Chinese e-comm website design to social commerce Taobao since the outbreak _____________________ Source: Skypad, Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company. Page 4 THE NEXT NORMAL NEW DEMANDS, NEW VALUES, NEW PRIORITIES CAUTIOUS SPENDING NEW VALUES HEALTH TOP OF MIND AGILE INNOVATION 5.1% 76% 54% 6.9% of businesses said Forecast year-on-year real of global consumers said of businesses said decline in global average COVID-19 will cause consumers will they are looking for ways to permanently change their household disposable simplify their lives increased anxiety for income in 2020 their employees shopping and spending behavior as a result of COVID-19 • Economic recession with job • Consumers emerging from • COVID-19 has brought health • The speed of disruption losses, falling incomes and isolation and lockdowns are awareness to an entirely new caused by COVID-19 uncertain earning prospects turning their backs on excess level as fear of infection highlights the importance of makes consumers more consumerism, prioritizing makes consumers focus on being flexible and able to cautious and more selective quality vs. quantity and hygiene, immunity and innovate to meet the in their purchasing decisions buying less health risks to themselves demands brought about by and others disruptions and rapidly • Consumers likely to trade • Disruptions in the supply down for certain products chain have highlighted the • Stress and anxiety on the rise changing consumer habits and reserve purchases of importance in localized due to the current • Consumers will expect the luxury items for when the supply chains and thereby environment as consumers brands they support to put economy is more stable encouraged people to buy look to take care of their people and their wellbeing local with a focus on health more proactively with ahead of profits sustainable a focus on self-care _____________________ Source: Euromonitor Report, April 2020. Page 5 SHIFTING PRIORITIES IN CONSUMER SPENDING CONSUMERS ARE RE-EVALUATING THEIR LIFE PRIORITIES, GIVING RISE TO NEW VALUES AND SPENDING CRITERIA ANTICIPATED CHANGES TO CONSUMER SHOPPING AND As consumer life has been transformed in significant ways SPENDING BEHAVIOR (APRIL 2020) because of COVID-19 and the social distancing ordinances in place, many of the recent trends in shopping behavior will experience mid-term or even permanent change. Buy more products to improve life at home – Nowhere is this more evident than in the permanent shift to the online channel. Reduce in-store shopping The lines between the domestic sphere and professional sphere have been blurred as many people are working from home. Buy more health and wellness related products – This will lead to a decline in apparel and footwear sales and certain categories of beauty products as well as an increase in hometainment. Reduce overall spending Changes to the consumer mindset will lead to spending more time at home, reduction in the purchase of non-essential items, reduced air travel, a greater focus on family and self care, as Increase online shopping well as on nature, mental wellbeing and preventative health. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% – Sanitation and immunity-boosting products within the Respondents Short-term change only (Q1 and Q2 2020) food, beverage and consumer health industries will Mid-term change, but will eventually return to pre-crisis norms continue to see high demand along with a further Permanent change convergence of beauty and health and wellness. No change Not sure _____________________ Source: Euromonitor International COVID-19 Voice of the Industry Survey, April 2020. Q: How do you think consumers will change their shopping and spending behavior as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic? N=2846. Page 6 INDUSTRY IMPACTS NEAR-TERM IMPACT ON BEAUTY & WELLNESS LARGELY CONSIDERED RECESSION PROOF, THE $500B+ BEAUTY INDUSTRY FACES UNPRECEDENTED CHALLENGES At the outset of the crisis, consumers focused on the essentials (in beauty and personal care and consumer products more broadly), with dampened discretionary spending activity. Sustained operations at retailers deemed essential (mass market retailers, drugstores, etc.) and a shift to online supported sales in the category, but did not compensate for the loss of in-store sales that were 4X or greater beauty E-commerce sales pre-pandemic. A shift to local brands, boost in masstige offerings and a newly
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