Cities and Infrastructure: A Rough Road Ahead

Gregory K. Ingram and Anthony Flint around the economy and increasing employment. Second was the longer-term role that infrastructure merican cities have promising long- plays in sustaining the transformation of municipal term prospects as hubs of innova- economies and increasing their competitiveness tion and growth, with expansion and livability in a globalized world. in technology and health sciences beginning to offset the decades-long Infrastructure and the Local Government erosion of manufacturing. Cities also remain places Fiscal Crisis Aof vitality, offering urban design, density, and trans- The country’s need for fiscal stimulus to jump-start port options that attract residents of all ages and the economy in 2009 raised the prospect of massive backgrounds. In fact, nine of the ten most popu- infrastructure investments to help meet that need. lous U.S. cities gained population over the last However, the kinds of projects that could be decade, according to the 2010 U.S. Census. launched quickly at the local level tended to be Yet the short-term prospects for cities are fraught smaller-scale efforts, such as roadway repairs and with challenges. The recent sharp decline in tax facilities maintenance. More ambitious initiatives, revenues, caused by the 2008 housing market col- such as intercity high-speed rail, failed to material- lapse and related financial crisis and economic ize due to spending and debt concerns and because slowdown, has made it extraordinarily difficult much more design was needed before implemen- for state and local governments to maintain basic tation could proceed. services, let alone plan for investments in infrastruc- Lawrence H. Summers, who recently returned ture. Federal funds from the American Recovery to his professorship at Harvard after being director and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) helped local gov- of the White House National Economic Council, ernments offset revenue declines in the past three defended the Obama administration’s stimulus years, but ARRA funds are no longer available plans, which he said were necessary to restore con- for the coming fiscal year (a transition now termed fidence in the financial system and keep the reces- “the cliff ”), leaving local officials to confront the sion “out of the history books.” However, he said, full force of revenue shortfalls. “while local governments were able to use stimulus The 2011 Journalists Forum on Land and the funds to cover revenue shortfalls, there were very Built Environment: The Next City brought scholars, few large shovel-ready projects.” practitioners, and political leaders together with Moreover, the grim reality of fiscal stress is print and broadcast journalists to explore the theme that cities cannot focus on large-scale, long-range of infrastructure for cities in the context of the infrastructure projects because they are struggling ongoing economic recovery. This program is an to cut spending and reform the delivery of local annual partnership of the Lincoln Institute of public services, noted Michael Cooper, reporter for Land Policy, the Nieman Foundation for Journal- The New York Times. Some examples of lost services ism at Harvard University, and Harvard Graduate include the Hawaii program that furloughs public School of Design. school teachers every Friday through this school Two roles for infrastructure investments and year; the San Diego boy who died choking on a related services permeated discussions at the Forum. gumball because a nearby fire station had been First was the near-term role of investment in infra- shuttered on a rotating basis; Colorado Springs’ structure as a fiscal stimulus aimed at turning decision to turn off a third of its streetlights each

20 Lincoln Institute of Land Policy • Land Lines • j u ly 2 0 1 1 j u ly 2 0 1 1 • Land Lines • Lincoln Institute of Land Policy 21 © iStockphoto/Denis Tangney Jr.

night and to auction off the police helicopter; and offering a merit pay system without tenure that Boston’s well-used the California town that recalled its mayor because 60 percent of the teachers opted to join. subway system is one he revamped the city’s failing wooden pipes in its of the oldest in the country and in need water system, but increased water fees to pay for it. Infrastructure Challenges: of upgrading. Many jurisdictions also have ongoing fiscal The Case of High-Speed Rail problems with the underfunding of pension funds President Barack Obama’s $53 billion high-speed and benefits. Some are worsening the problems rail initiative has brought the challenges of the simply by not making the required annual payments, local government fiscal crisis into sharp relief. Gov- a stopgap applied by Governor Chris Christie in ernors in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin returned New Jersey, among others. The municipal bond the federal funding allocated to those states for market faces tumult and some cities, like Harris- intercity rail, claiming that their state and local burg, Pennsylvania, are on the brink of bankruptcy. governments could not possibly afford the resulting Fiscal deficits are growing because local govern- maintenance and operating costs, and questioning ments have now expended the last of their ridership projections. The high-speed rail project ARRA funds. in California, though financed by a voter-approved Adrian Fenty, former mayor of Washington, bond issue, faces similar opposition because of DC, said cities need to be run on a more business- financial burdens and local land use disputes. like basis, moving to the politics of performance Bruce Babbitt, former governor of Arizona and away from the politics of patronage. Improve- and secretary of the U.S. Department of Interior, ments are needed in both the efficiency of basic and a member of the Lincoln Institute board of service delivery and the management of city finances. directors, said the Obama administration’s cam- Because education is so important to the economic paign for high-speed intercity rail was a “political growth of cities, his administration gave priority disaster,” and that the underlying vision needed to education reform—human infrastructure as a reassessment. He suggested that the Northeast well as physical infrastructure. During his term as Corridor should be the model, and that a revised mayor, his administration closed 20 percent of the plan should include a well-defined system of schools and reduced administrative personnel by reliable financing—similar to the approach used 50 percent. He also revamped teacher contracts, to build the interstate highway system.

20 Lincoln Institute of Land Policy • Land Lines • j u ly 2 0 1 1 j u ly 2 0 1 1 • Land Lines • Lincoln Institute of Land Policy 21 F e a t u r e Cities and Infrastructure

© iStockphoto/Jay Lazarin People gather Paying for high-speed rail infrastructure will ments in crumbling infrastructure nationwide. on New York’s High require a dedicated funding stream, perhaps from Rendell argued that the United States has been Line elevated park an increase in the gasoline tax in the states where resting on its past investments, and that shoring under the new Standard Hotel. the new rail lines would be located, and a system up the nation’s decaying physical foundations is of value capture to engage private landowners now an urgent priority. Without world-class infra- who benefit from increases in property value as structure, the country will not be competitive in a result of such public works projects. “We don’t attracting private investment, sustaining rapid tech- have the political courage to define our priorities,” nological innovation and productivity growth, or Babbitt said. It will take a “national hammer” maintaining the growth of good jobs domestically. to address the nation’s infrastructure deficit with- out abdicating control to governors and states. Infrastructure and the Future of Cities High-speed rail may live or die based on eco- As the recovery continues and economic growth nomic considerations. Petra Todorovich, executive returns, investments in new communication tech- director of America 2050, which has issued nume- nology, green energy, smart urban systems, trans- rous analyses of high-speed rail’s potential, proposed port such as high-speed rail and mass transit, and a framework of 12 U.S. megaregions that repre- other infrastructure will be needed to help cities sent collections of metropolitan areas where en- fulfill their roles as the centers of innovation, hanced rail service offers the greatest potential for culture, and productivity. replacing automobile and short-haul airline travel. The vision of infrastructure combined with High-speed rail can deepen labor markets, increase long-range planning is also a central theme in how agglomeration economies, and boost productivity cities can adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate by linking urban centers. Japan, France, and change, including a possible one-meter sea level China are among the countries that have demon- rise and associated storm surges, flooding, and strated how rail lines between major cities can increasing numbers of extreme weather events. foster economic synergies through the strategic Infrastructure in most coastal cities is so old that location of high-speed rail stations and their even a moderate storm event can do extensive connections to commuter rail and transit. damage, said Ed Blakely, public policy professor This economic payoff argument was seconded at the University of and former hurricane by Edward Rendell, former governor of Pennsyl- recovery czar in . vania and mayor of Philadelphia, who is part of Cities have been able to base their current plans Building America’s Future, a campaign for invest- on the relatively calm meteorological record of the

22 Lincoln Institute of Land Policy • Land Lines • j u ly 2 0 1 1 j u ly 2 0 1 1 • Land Lines • Lincoln Institute of Land Policy 23 last 200 years, but that calm is likely to erode with Cities as Engines of Growth climate change, making much of the existing infra- Investing in infrastructure to support metropolitan structure inadequate or obsolete. Attention should regions might have an additional rationale ground- not be focused on rebuilding after disasters like ed in the surprising resilience of cities themselves. , Blakely said, but on reloca- The ongoing urban resurgence is visible in the ting, repositioning, and “future-proofing” for income growth of highly skilled professionals, the more resilient cities. relatively modest housing price declines and even Infrastructure as an amenity that improves city recent increases in several prospering cities, and livability is seen in New York’s High Line project, a concentration of innovation in urban areas, said the conversion of an elevated freight line through Harvard economics professor Edward Glaeser. the Meatpacking District and Greenwich Village. “We could move anywhere that suits our biophilia,” One of the architects on that project, Liz Diller, he said. “Yet we keep flocking to cities.” principal in Diller, Scofidio + Renfro, suggested Urban population growth is highly correlated that such retrofits can transform urban areas, pro- with average urban incomes, education levels, and vide a focal point for social and cultural events, and the share of employment in small firms as cities promote economic activity—though she cautioned continue to draw entrepreneurs and foster pro- that “architecture can’t really fix big problems.” ductivity. If incomes everywhere were like those In spite of the current fiscal crisis, cities are in New York City, the national GDP would rise expected to experience other changes that may aid 43 percent, Glaeser said. Cities will also continue their economic recovery. Among these are the fall- to be prized for their environmental value as places out from the current housing crisis that is likely to of density and transit, reflecting relatively lower spur demand for rental units and the demographic per capita energy use and carbon emissions than shift as the baby boom generation enters retire- suburban and rural areas. Glaeser argued against ment age and begins to downsize housing choices. restrictive zoning and regulations that discourage Professor Arthur C. (Chris) Nelson, professor at greater density and leave older, low-rise urban the University of Utah, noted that both changes neighborhoods “frozen in amber.” He also stressed may generate more demand for urban lifestyles. that public education remains the most important For example, the current reduction in demand for investment that cities can and should make to owner-occupied, single-family houses at the metro- enhance their continued economic growth and politan periphery is evident in the Intermountain quality of life. West, Southwest, and South, where entire subdivi- As both the national economy and local gov- sions are virtually empty. The percent of households ernment revenues recover, a key priority will be owning homes has declined from a high of 69.2 to balance expenditures between current services percent in 2004 to 66.4 percent in 2011, fostering and longer-term investments. Economic growth more demand for rental units that typically are will make it easier to finance investments in infra- located in more urbanized areas. structure, but investments in infrastructure are Demographic shifts are also related to changes needed to increase economic growth. The chal- in household composition. By 2030 single-person lenge is to find a politically feasible way of break- households will constitute one-third of the popula- ing into this virtuous circle. tion, and only about one out of four households will include children, a decline from 45 percent with children in 1970 and 33 percent in 2000. These changes are likely to foster a significant adjustment in housing markets and values as aging ◗ about the author S baby boomers offer their suburban houses for sale ...... and move to more urbanized locations with access Gregory K. Ingram is president and CEO of the to transit and walkable neighborhoods. At the same Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Contact: gkingram@ time, upcoming changes in mortgage markets and lincolninst.edu the reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may Anthony Flint is fellow and director of public affairs make mortgage financing (and homeownership) at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Contact: anthony. more costly and cause younger families to choose [email protected] renting over owning.

22 Lincoln Institute of Land Policy • Land Lines • j u ly 2 0 1 1 j u ly 2 0 1 1 • Land Lines • Lincoln Institute of Land Policy 23