Intelligent Drug Discovery Powered by AI About the Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions
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A report from the Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions Intelligent drug discovery Powered by AI About the Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions The Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions (CfHS) is the research arm of Deloitte’s Life Sciences and Health Care practices. We combine creative thinking, robust research and our industry experience to develop evidence-based perspectives on some of the biggest and most challenging issues to help our clients to transform themselves and, importantly, benefit the patient. At a pivotal and challenging time for the industry, we use our research to encourage collaboration across all stakeholders, from pharmaceuticals and medical innovation, health care management and reform, to the patient and health care consumer. Connect To learn more about the CfHS and our research, please visit www.deloitte.co.uk/centreforhealthsolutions Subscribe To receive upcoming thought leadership publications, events and blogs from the UK Centre, please visit https://www.deloitte.co.uk/aem/centre-for-health-solutions.cfm To subscribe to our blog, please visit https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/health/ Life sciences companies continue to respond to a changing global landscape, and strive to pursue innovative solutions to address today’s challenges. Deloitte understands the complexity of these challenges, and works with clients worldwide to drive progress and bring discoveries to life. Contents Accelerating drug discovery 2 The rise of AI drug discovery disruptors 8 Key considerations for biopharma’s adoption of AI 18 The future of drug discovery: Delivering ‘4P’ medicine 25 Endnotes 30 Intelligent drug discovery Accelerating drug discovery The Deloitte Intelligent biopharma series explores how artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will affect each step of the biopharma value chain.1 This report, the second in our series, examines how AI is helping to accelerate the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of drug discovery. RUG DISCOVERY IS the first step of the manufacturing and administration routes, low value chain that identifies new candidate specificity and a stable shelf life, meaning they are therapeutics for treating or curing human safe and effective for large groups of people. D 2 diseases. It is the initial stage of biopharma However, low specificity can also lead to side effects, research and development (R&D) and involves the reducing the chances of success in clinical trials. identification and optimisation of potential new drugs and a preclinical in vivo validation through Since the 1990s, scientific and technological cell assays and animal models. Successful candi- advances have led to the discovery of larger, more dates that meet the regulatory requirements applied complex, biological therapeutics known as biologics. to drug discovery move into the clinical trial phase, In contrast to chemically synthesised small mole- where they are tested for efficacy and safety in cules, biologics are produced or isolated from living humans.3 Our next report in the series examines organisms and include a wide range of products the impact AI is having on clinical trials (Intelligent such as allergenics, antisense drugs, blood and clinical trials: Transforming through engagement). blood components, recombinant therapeutic DNA and proteins, and vaccines. The evolution of drug discovery Biologics are highly specific to their target and have invoked high levels of media and investor interest Historically, the discovery of new therapeutics due to their innovative techniques and potential to involved the extraction of ingredients from natural cure previously untreatable diseases. Only 17 of the products and basic research to find potential treat- 59 drugs approved by Food and Drug Administration ments. Progress was generally slow, frustrating and (FDA) in 2018 were biologics, largely due to the com- labour intensive. In some cases, discoveries plex manufacturing and administration routes.5 As occurred due to unexpected events and observa- most pharma companies have integrated biologics tions (such as penicillin). The majority of drugs into their pipelines, for the purpose of this report we discovered during the 20th century were chemically refer to all pharma companies as biopharma compa- synthesised small molecules, which still make up 90 nies. Figure 1 provides a timeline on the history and per cent of drugs on the market today.4 The advan- progression of drug discovery paradigms. tages of small molecules include simple 2 Powered by AI FIGURE 1 The history and progression of drug discovery paradigms Main research discoveries Drug approvals Main technological advances Main awards and prizes DNA crystals imaged Double-helical DNA Inactivated polio Interferon, a naturally using X-ray diffraction, structure discovered vaccine introduced occurring anti-viral paving the way to protein discovered discover DNA structure 1952 1953 1955 1957 Ibuprofen approved First production of Protein Data Bank providing First measles Development of by the FDA recombinant DNA X-ray crystal structures of vaccine licensed Solid-Phase Peptide proteins used for structure Synthesis (SPPS) based drug design 1974 1972 1971 1963 First production First nonmathematical Introduction of FDA approval for Polymerase chain of monoclonal method for rational Computer-Aided recombinant reaction (PCR) antibodies drug design Drug Design human insulin, invented, allowing (CADD) Humulin large scale applications of recombinant DNA 1975 1977 1981 1982 1983 Human Genome Project First statin for Introduction of Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded for initiated human use combinatorial chemistry work on SPPS (Lovastatin) and phage display First miniaturised device for approved by technique Nobel Prize in Physiology and Medicine awarded chemical analysis the FDA for work on monoclonal antibodies production 1990 1987 1985 1984 The first microchip/ microarray The first example of a Nobel Prize in Chemistry The FDA approved interferon company founded (Affymetrix) small-molecule combinatorial awarded the invention for adjuvant therapy of library reported of the PCR method melanoma patients 1991 1992 1993 1995 CRISPR invented as a EMA approved Human genome sequencing The FDA approved The first drug based on gene editing tool in the use of gene completed, which allowed for Humira, the world’s a monoclonal antibody mammalian cells therapy product the development of emerging bestselling drug (Rituximab) approved (Glybera) pharmacogenomics for medical use technologies 2013 2012 2003 2002 1997 The FDA approved the Nobel Prize in Chemistry The FDA approved the AI-enabled technology for de novo design of use of a cell-based awarded for work on use of a CRISPR-based small-molecules (GENTRL) by Insilico Medicine gene therapy product phage display of peptides therapy to treat a rare delivered a lead compound against fibrosis in (Kymriah) and antibodies genetic ocular disorder 46 days rather than years 2017 2018 2019 Source: Deloitte research supported by Deep Knowledge Analytics. 3 Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights Intelligent drug discovery Despite advances in genomics, chemical synthesis massive improvements in computing power, and other molecular biology techniques, only advances in robotics and biological techniques, and around one-third of the estimated 20,000-30,000 improved methodologies in synthetic chemistry.10 known diseases have an adequate treatment.6 7 Moreover, research published in 2017 found that the FDA had approved 1,578 drugs in total, target- The four main stages of ing only 819 disease related molecular targets out of 20,000-25,000 genes composing the human drug discovery generally genome.8,9 take fi ve to six years to complete. Discovering drugs is a crucial fi rst step in the biopharma value chain Drug discovery generally comprises four main stages (see fi gure 2). These stages take fi ve to six years to com- For the past 50 years, drug discovery has focussed plete, excluding the initial drug target identifi cation and largely on high-throughput screening for known assay development steps, which are largely driven by disease-associated targets with progress driven by academic and other research centres.11 FIGURE 2 The biopharma value chain for drug discovery Postmarket Research & Clinical Manufacturing Launch & surveillance & discovery development & supply chain commercialisation patient support STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4 First screening and Hit to lead selection Lead optimisation Preclinical testing hit identification Hits are confirmed and (drug candidate In vivo assays are performed High-throughput screening analogue clusters are selection) to test pharmacodynamics, of large libraries of synthetized three to six Lead molecules are further pharmacokinetics and chemicals to test their ability molecule clusters with modified and improved a toxicity of novel candidates to modify the target positive better affinity and drug number of drug candidates 1 in 25 drug candidates that hits are selected for further properties are selected are selected (1 in 5000 from enter preclinical phase are validation initial screening) selected for clinical trial studies The drug discovery process usually takes five to six years from the start of stage I to the end of preclinical testing. Of 10,000 small molecules initially screened, 10 are selected for clinical trials.12 Source: Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights 4 Powered by AI Drug discovery is a long, Around one-third of the above cost is spent on the expensive and often drug discovery phase.16 As shown in fi