Phase 1 Applecross EV Charging Feasibility Study

PREPARED FOR: Applecross Community Company Urban Foresight® is a multidisciplinary innovation practice that is dedicated to accelerating the next generation of technologies, services and policy frameworks for cities and regions. We work with ambitious organisations around the world on projects that improve lives, protect the environment and boost local economies.

© Urban Foresight Ltd, 2020

The Catalyst, 3 Science Square Flour Mill, Newcastle Helix 34 Commercial Street, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE4 5TF Dundee, DD1 3EJ United Kingdom Scotland +44 (0)191 814 2210 +44(0)138 22 40 40 urbanforesight.org [email protected] Executive Summary Urban Foresight were commissioned by Applecross Community Company to undertake a feasibility study on the installation of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Applecross infrastructure and its integration with the 90kW community hydro turbine scheme.

EV Landscape

The analysis of data suggests that there are already a number of electric vehicles in the area and local infrastructure is currently being utilised, however the expected growth in EVs is in the region of 4,700 vehicles over the next 5 years will have a noticeable impact. Along with the increasing popularity of the NC500 route, Applecross is likely to see the demand for charging dramatically increase in the coming years.

A review of the current infrastructure shows a need for chargers in Applecross, a mix of a Rapid and a Fast charger into a hub would support the needs of both residents and tourists, with the introduction of tariffs allowing for revenue generation.

Stakeholder Engagement

The stakeholders involved in the project have been extremely supportive and positive about the project and have identified a clear desire to link community energy projects to the promotion of electric vehicles.

The household survey identified that the large majority of the residents would support the installation of chargers in Applecross and it would encourage them to make the switch to an EV, especially if it was linked to local production of electricity.

Site Appraisal

A shortlist of 5 feasible sites have been identified, which should be considered by ACC in conjunction with future developments plans for the area and findings from the power section of the report.

A number charging scenarios have been identified and ordered in terms of meeting demand and these have been costed at a high-level to allow for comparison. It should be noted the significant cost of both a grid upgrade and a battery storage solution.

Power Options

An initial analysis of the power required to support the various charging scenarios was carried out with the main finding that any rapid or semi-rapid charger would require a three-phase connection.

A review of the power generated from the hydro scheme identified that in theory it provides enough power to meet current demand however the unpredictable nature of the

1 Urban Foresight output would cause significant issues to any charging infrastructure without an additional grid connection.

There were 3 options identified for a suitable grid connection, however each one has limitations or would require significant investment.

A battery storage solution is the only realistic option to utilise the available hydro power, however the ability of this solution to deliver the required output from a single-phase supply, while being the most cost-effective solution is not readily available.

Operating Models

4 operating models have been identified for running the infrastructure with benefits and drawbacks identified for each one, the final decision should be driven by alignment with funding and outcomes required.

To ensure the success and sustainability of the chargers a reliable and functional back office is required along with a process for monitoring and dealing with noncompliance, these will also help to improve user experience which is key to repeat business.

Business Case Analysis

We have carried out a review of future demand, revenue costs and possible income across a number of scenarios, to understand the full cost implications of installing charging infrastructure.

We have identified a number of possible tariff options that are in line with other tariffs being introduced across Scotland.

Finally, we have analysed the inclusion of hydro which shows a positive impact on the return on investment as well as reviewing the cost of the battery storage solution on its own and how it has a positive impact on investment and would allow for future hydro expansion.

Summary and Pathway to Phase 2 detailed Design

We have identified a number of key decisions to be made by ACC to progress to a detailed design phase.

We have identified 5 possible technology options with pros and cons based on the previous findings. The costs to deliver the various options to the most suitable sites range from £15,500 - £18,500 for a 7kw charger with no battery storage solution or connection to the hydro, to £297,000 - £300,00 for a full scheme that includes a mix of rapid and fast charges and utilises the current and future hydro production through a battery storage solution but requires a grid upgrade to 3 phase.

2 Urban Foresight Contents

Executive Summary ...... 1 Introduction ...... 5 Approach ...... 6 EV Landscape ...... 9 3.1 Current Status ...... 9 3.2 Anticipating the future ...... 10 3.3 Current Infrastructure ...... 11 3.4 Car and Van Traffic ...... 16 3.5 Summary ...... 17 Stakeholder Engagement ...... 18 4.1 Community Survey to Applecross Residents ...... 18 4.2 Summary ...... 21 Site Appraisal ...... 22 5.1 Identification Process ...... 22 5.2 Site makeup ...... 25 5.3 Site Costing ...... 27 5.4 Summary ...... 28 Power Options ...... 29 6.1 Charger Requirements ...... 29 6.2 AppleJuice Hydro Turbine ...... 29 6.3 Grid Connectivity ...... 32 6.4 Battery Storage Technology ...... 35 6.5 Summary ...... 37 Operating Models ...... 38 7.1 Commercial models ...... 38 7.2 Funding ...... 39 7.3 Tariffs & Enforcement ...... 39 7.4 Back office ...... 40 7.5 Other Considerations ...... 41

3 Urban Foresight 7.6 Summary ...... 41 Business Case Analysis ...... 42 8.1 Method ...... 42 8.2 Demand ...... 42 8.3 Tariff Scenario ...... 43 8.4 Assumptions ...... 44 8.5 Key findings ...... 45 8.6 Including hydro power ...... 46 8.7 Summary ...... 49 Summary and Pathway to Phase 2 ...... 50 9.1 Summary ...... 50 9.2 Recommended Actions ...... 52 Appendix I – Household Survey Results ...... 53 Appendix II – Factfiles ...... 60 Option A ...... 61 Option C ...... 62 Option E ...... 63 Option G ...... 64 Option H ...... 65 Appendix III – Costing ...... 66 Appendix IV – Cashflows without hydro ...... 68 Tariff Scenario 1 – No tariff applied ...... 69 Tariff Scenario 2 - p/kWh 15% above domestic electricity prices ..... 73 Tariff Scenario 3 - 38p connection fee and a 25p/kWh tariff ...... 77 Tariff Scenario 4 – 38p connection fee and a blended p/kWh tariff .. 81 Appendix V – Cashflows with hydro ...... 85 15% Hydro utilisation rate ...... 86 50% hydro utilisation rate ...... 90 80% hydro utilisation rate ...... 94 Appendix VI – Cashflows with new 90 kW turbine ...... 98 Introduction of 90kW turbine ...... 99

4 Urban Foresight Introduction Urban Foresight were commissioned by Applecross Community Company to undertake a CARES funded feasibility study on the installation of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Applecross. This study specifically focussed on developing the technical feasibility for electric vehicle infrastructure and its integration with the 90kW community hydro turbine scheme which will lead to a detailed design process for the preferred site in Phase 2 of the project.

The Apple Juice hydro station is a is a 90kW hydro scheme which was commissioned in 2016. It was developed by the Applecross Community Company (ACC) initially, who completed the preparatory work with some financial aid from the Scottish Government’s Community and Renewable Energy Scheme (CARES), the Climate Challenge Fund, and £10,000 invested from the ACC themselves.

Apple Juice (Applecross) Ltd - the newly formed Community Benefit Society – are currently responsible for the operation and maintenance of the installation. the Apple Juice hydro scheme utilises the Allt Breugach burn, generating an estimated output of 447,000kWh each year. The current 90kW output is split between a 50kW constrained single-phase grid export and 40kW diversion load to heat a nearby polytunnel. We have been tasked to assess a better utilisation of the 40kW currently heating the polytunnel to power new electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure.

The ACC have further recognised that the introduction of charging infrastructure could provide a strategic opportunity for the implementation of a “low carbon mobility hub”, which consists of community car club electric vehicles, electric bicycles (eBikes) and associated charging infrastructure, thus enabling the community to meet its responsibilities and ambitions in becoming a low carbon community.

This report concludes the findings of Phase 1, the feasibility and technical assessment phase, and will provide guidance to Applecross Community Company on site recommendations to proceed to Phase 2, the detailed design phase.

5 Urban Foresight Approach Figure 1 provides an overview of the approach taken to delivering the project. Further discussion on each step is included in the following sections.

Figure 1 Overview of approach to project

Review of EV landscape Investigation was undertaken to interpret EV registration data and charging patterns within the surrounding region and area of Applecross. We also looked at levels of expected growth in use and forecast future demand across the region. To establish the need for a solution in the area.

A review of the EV landscape is provided in Section 3.

6 Urban Foresight Stakeholder Engagement Stakeholder engagement took place throughout the project, with Applecross Community Company and Local Energy Scotland, held every 3-4 weeks providing general iterative project updates and direction of the options appraisal. Further detailed discussions were held throughout the process, with other relevant stakeholders such as major landowners in the proposed area for the sites, The Applecross Trust, the Distribution Network Operator (DNO), SSE, and our technical partners, Swarco.

In addition, a postal and online household survey was prepared for the Applecross community to better understand preliminary feedback and behaviours towards the potential for electric vehicle chargers in Applecross. To establish the support for a solution in the area.

Information on the stakeholder engagement process is included in Section 4.

Key feedback from the engagement and soundbites from the household survey are also included throughout all sections of this document. The full survey results are provided in Appendix I.

Options appraisal The Applecross Community Company (ACC) provided a preliminary list of 5 sites that would be suited. An initial review of sites was undertaken to understand the key project deliverables. Further appraisal was undertaken throughout phase 1, taking into consideration feedback from stakeholder engagement and the technical assessments to derive a shorter list of feasible locations for further detailed assessments.

An analysis of the various charging scenarios was carried out and these were cross referenced with each possible technical solution. A high-level costing exercise was then carried out on each site as well as the various hardware configurations. To establish the location and setup of ideal scenario.

Further detail of the site appraisal process is described in Section 5.

Power Options To understand the technical feasibility of integrating an EV charger, and the type of power in a notoriously grid constrained area, a detailed review of the different power options was undertaken. This included the detailed review of the existing hydro turbine reviewing patterns of behaviour and its likely outputs. In addition, working with our technical partner Swarco, we assessed the opportunities and potential solutions, in the form of additional integrated energy systems, such as a battery storage solution.

A number of discussions took place with SSE regarding the current power availability in the area as well as the long term plans as well as feeding back on the most suitable options with high level cost implications. To establish the feasible solutions in the area.

Further detail on the power options are described in Section 6.

7 Urban Foresight Operation & Business Models This section took an overview of some of the factors that will ensure the long term sustainability of any infrastructure deployed, including a review of the various operating models available, back office considerations as well as enforcement issues.

We carried out a high level analysis of various operating models and looked at these in line with the various site options and configurations and how this will impact on the long term costs and revenue for the chargers. This also considered how this will be impacted by the connection to the hydro scheme. To establish ongoing financial implications of a scheme.

Further detail of the operating and business models is described in Sections 7 & 8.

Summary & Pathway to Phase 2 We summarised the key decisions required to be made by ACC to allow the project to move on to the key design phase. We have detailed the main options available in the area and have identified some key next steps.

8 Urban Foresight EV Landscape This section of the report provides an overview of the current status of the Applecross and Highlands region regarding the number of electric vehicles and the current state of charging infrastructure.

The data presented in this section is intended to provide context to the scale of the challenge to the Applecross area in providing an infrastructure that supports the desire to stimulate the greater use of low emission vehicles and help to meet the Scotland’s national ambitions that all new cars and vans sold will be zero emissions by 2032.

3.1 Current Status The number of electric vehicles in the Highland’s area has been identified and compared against other regions in Scotland. Figure 2 below illustrates the current number of EV light duty vehicle (LDV) registrations in each local authority and the Highlands at the end of Q4 2019. The uptake of plug-in vehicles in the Highlands is currently lower than the national average.

Figure 2 Current Electric Vehicle Share by Local Authority Assuming the current number of plug-in cars and vans per 1,000 population for the Highlands applies to Applecross, it would be expected that there are no plug-in vehicle in Applecross. Our survey however, determined that there are currently 5 EVs located in Applecross, representing approximately 6% of the owned cars identified through the 52 households that responded to the survey.

9 Urban Foresight 3.2 Anticipating the future The historic growth in electric vehicles in the Highlands, has been relatively low in comparison to the rest of Scotland. Two scenarios have been considered to estimate the number of EVs on Highland roads in the future, the historic growth scenario and the s- curve pattern of innovation. Both scenarios have been forecasted to 2032, to measure their progress in line with the Scottish ambitions to phase out the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2032.

Historic Growth Scenario: between the end of 2018 and the end of 2019, plug-in car and van numbers in the Highlands had a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 47.7%. Continuing that historic trend forward there is expected to be an increase of around 4,000 plug-in vehicles in the Highlands, within the next 5 years.

S-Curve Pattern of Innovation Scenario: the s-curve shows the innovation of plug-in cars and vans from its slow early development to accelerated growth as the market is developed and matured.

The comparison of these scenarios and the impact on plug-in vehicle numbers in the Highlands are presented in Figure 3. It can be determined that whilst both follow different rates of growth, that the current growth rate in the Highlands is on track to meet 2032 targets. However, maintaining a steady growth in vehicle numbers will require a significant effort from the electric vehicle market, along with the addition of new charging infrastructure to stimulate a greater level of EV uptake.

Highland Council plug-in vehicle growth 80000 s e l

c 70000 i h e v 60000 n i - g u l 50000 P

f o

r 40000 e b m

u 30000 N

e v i 20000 t a l u

m 10000 u C 0 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year Historic compound annual growth rate 2018/19 S-curve pattern of innovation

Figure 3 Forecasted number of Plug-In vehicles on Highland Council Roads by 2032

10 Urban Foresight On a localised level, it is difficult to determine what the true value of growth will be in Applecross. However, applying the CAGR for the Highlands to Applecross for the current estimation of the 5 plug-in vehicles (data captured from our household survey, year ending 2020 – Appendix I), we estimate that within the next 5 years there could be approximately 31 plug-in vehicles in the Applecross if this continues. If following an S- curve expectation of growth, we anticipate there to be 41 plug-in vehicles within the next 5 years.

3.3 Current Infrastructure There are currently no publicly accessibly electric vehicle chargers within a 25 mile drive of the Applecross region, the closest chargepoint being The Torridon, Achnasheen (Figure 4). Our analysis has identified that there are currently around 128 publicly accessible charging points (excluding Tesla Destinations), owned by a variety of public and private organisations across the Highlands. The closest major city to Applecross, Inverness has 20 publicly available chargepoints. These are operated by Charge Place Scotland, Tesla and ZeroNet.

Figure 4 Chargepoint provision within proximity to Applecross

11 Urban Foresight There are a number of networks operating across the region, constituting a mix of 3, 7 and 22kW ‘fast’ chargers, and 43kW AC and 50 kW DC ‘rapid’ chargers. The majority of the chargepoints in the region, 72%, are operated by the Charge Place Scotland (CPS) network and are rapid chargers.

We have further analysed the local chargers to Applecross, Gairloch Community Hall 50kW and Torridon Inn Chargers to inform the tariff analysis and annual users. The headline usage indicators for these chargers are described in Table 1. On an average “good” day, the chargers could demand approximately 15 kWh, with peak 24-hour data suggesting 155 kWh could be required.

Table 1 Gairloch Community Hall and Torridon Inn Charger usage statistics

Statistic Value

Charging events per Day 0.47 – 0.68

Average energy (kWh) consumed per event 8.00-22.00

Average energy (kWh) consumed per day (bad day) 4.00

Average energy (kWh) consumed per day (good day) 15.00

Max Energy (kWh) consumed in one day (peak season) 155.00

As EV adoption increases in line with national targets, the demand for the infrastructure is likely to increase. As highlighted in the household survey, 81% of respondents said that access to an EV charger supported by locally generated clean energy will provide them with more confidence when thinking about purchasing an EV. The visible lack of chargepoints between Torridon and Inverness suggests that Applecross is likely to be a key strategic location for charging. A combination of ‘rapid’ and ‘fast’ charging would provide visitors and residents with the ability to en-route top-up charge for those travelling the 80-miles to Inverness and slower longer stay charge, thus reducing the influence of range anxiety, a key perceived barrier to EV adoption in remote rural areas, and one of the main barriers highlighted in our household survey.

A further opportunity for 7kW fast charging is to provide charging provision to residential properties with no access to off-street parking. Homechargers are commonly installed on private driveways and inside garages to allow users to charge their vehicle overnight. Residential properties without access to off-street parking, are therefore presented with a further barrier to uptake. Our survey indicates 21% of residential properties in Applecross have no off-street parking provision. 10 of those properties are within 2.5 miles and 2 are within 0.6 miles or approximately a 10-minute walk of the proposed chargepoint locations. A 7kW chargepoint would therefore provide an alternative to overnight charging at home and further instils confidence in these residents being able to confidently charge an electric vehicle.

12 Urban Foresight Figure 5 Review of household survey responses within 2.5 miles and 10min walks from the proposed charger locations.

North Coast 500 The North Coast 500 is a 516-mile road route around the coastal areas of the North Highlands, that capitalises on stunning scenery of the North Highlands.

The marketing of the route has built on the region’s reputation for spectacular and wild landscapes, while increasing tourism in less visited parts. The ability to complete the route by EV has also captured the imagination, with the value of minimising the environmental impact of travel to this remote region recognised by visitors.

There are 14 rapid charger locations situated on the NC500 route. However, there is a visible lack of chargers between Torridon and Inverness, a 105-mile route that passes through Applecross before heading to Inverness. Due to there being a lack of a charger in Applecross, there could be a potential loss of EV drivers taking the trip through to Applecross knowing the extent of this journey ahead. Installing a charger at Applecross therefore provides a prime opportunity to promote confidence for NC500 visitors driving in electric vehicles.

The greatest number of chargepoints (41%) on the NC500 route by power type are those rated 43-50kW, strategically located in car parks and visitor centres to provide EV users with top-up charging whilst driving the route. There are only 2 slow (3kW) chargepoints n the NC500 route. These are likely dated early model chargepoints that provide very slow

13 Urban Foresight charging to vehicles and are typically located at overnight stay locations. These chargepoints are therefore less suitable for larger battery vehicles now available and restrictive for NC500 users who are likely to be visiting for a short-period of time, or passing through. A higher-powered semi-rapid or rapid charger would therefore be a more desired option in anticipating an increase in these types of users.

Figure 6 below provides an overview of the current charge point infrastructure locations on the NC500 and the Highlands. The provision of a rapid charge point in Applecross will provide EV users with increased reassurance of the ability to charge on the western route travelling to Inverness.

Figure 6 NC500 chargepoint provision within proximity to Applecross

14 Urban Foresight Current Charging Tariffs in the Highlands There are variety of differing approaches to tariffs in the Highland region and across the UK, these tariff scenarios for the Highlands are presented in Table 2.

Charge Place Scotland is a national network of electric vehicle chargepoints available across Scotland. The CPS network has been developed by the Scottish Government through grant funding of local authorities and other organisation to install publicly available charge points.

Currently, the majority of the chargepoints on the CPS network are free to use, with the responsibility of the hosts to set the tariff. Local authorities and organisations have begun to set tariffs for chargepoint use, most recently (June 2020) the Western Isles have set a new tariff of 20p/kWh with a £1.00 minimum fee. This tariff sits just above the domestic electricity tariff and contributes to hosts operational and capital costs, without deterring public chargepoint usage. Further detailed information on how tariffs affect the operational and revenue costs associated with the charging infrastructure are provided in Section 7.

Table 2 EV Charging Networks tariff types

Network Type of Example Fees Types of Type of Sites Transaction Charging

 Rapid ChargePlace CYC App or  Free to use Attractions/Car Charging Scotland ChargePlace  20p/ kWh with a Parks Scotland Access minimum charge of Card £1.00 and a maximum of £20  £2.00 minimum and £0.25/kWh. There is a penalty charge of £5.00 if overstay for over 1 hour  Semi-Rapid ChargePlace CYC App or  £1.50 minimum Attractions Charging Scotland ChargePlace charge, 22p/kWh Scotland Access Card  7kW Fast Polar Polar Plus RFID  Plus: Free to use; Supermarket Car Charging card or Polar  Instant: £1.20 Park Instant app connection fee then free to use  Rapid/Semi- Engenie Contactless  36p/kWh Service Station credit or debit Rapid cards Charging  Rapid Ecotricity Electric Highway  30p/kWh Attraction App Charging  7kW Fast ZeroNet No card or app  May require Hotel/Accommod Charging required to payment ation access

15 Urban Foresight Network Type of Example Fees Types of Type of Sites Transaction Charging

 7kW Fast PodPoint Pod Point App  £2 per hour Leisure Centre Charging  Rapid Tesla Tesla App  23p/kWh. Idle fees: Retail Car Park Charging 35p/min over 100% charged. Doubles when location is 100% full.

3.4 Car and Van Traffic In addition to measuring the likely number of electric vehicles in Applecross, given the influence of the NC500 and levels of visitors and traffic likely to be passing through, car and van traffic data was analysed.

Car and Van traffic data was gathered from a number of sources, including PC Craig Allan, and ACC as displayed in Table 3. The data was primarily analysed from the ‘The Hill’ the main route into Applecross from the A896 in Tornapress.

Table 3 Applecross Traffic Counts

Location Traffic Count Direction Time Period Data Source per day

Bealach na Ba Tornapress to 4th July 2018 - 19th 287 PC Craig Allan (‘The Hill’) Applecross July 2019

Bealach na Ba Applecross to 4th July 2018 - 19th 236 PC Craig Allan (‘The Hill’) Tornapress July 2019

Bealach na Ba 130 Unknown March 2011 PC Craig Allan (‘The Hill’)

Bealach na Ba 523 Combined 7 – Days, June 2018 ACC (‘The Hill’)

Bealach na Ba 7 – Days, June 606 Combined ACC (‘The Hill’) 2019

Figure 7 provides an overview of the traffic flow during a 24-hour period. This would indicate there will be a peak demand during the day (typically between 10am-4pm) in which to be considered with the installation of any charger. However there are also likely to be longer periods of limited use, overnight which may provide an opportunity for the integration of a battery storage and hydro generation to maximise the integration of clean energy.

16 Urban Foresight 7-day Average traffic count in Applecross 70

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Figure 7 Average traffic count in Applecross

3.5 Summary The analysis of current number of electric vehicles and traffic flows in the area suggest that there is a higher proportion of electric vehicles in the area than anticipated which will provide an initial demand.

The expected growth in EVs is in the region of 4,700 over the next 5 years along with the increasing popularity of the NC500 is likely to see the demand for charging dramatically increase in the coming years, this is expected to follow current traffic profiling with a peak between 10am and 4pm daily.

A review of the current infrastructure shows a need for chargers in Applecross, a mix of a Rapid and Fast charger in a hub would support the needs of both residents and tourists, with the introduction of tariffs allowing for revenue generation. The area may be missing out on visitors due to limited infrastructure in the area.

17 Urban Foresight Stakeholder Engagement A stakeholder engagement exercise took place throughout the project, this comprised of discussions with the following parties:

 Applecross Community Company  Key landowner, The Applecross Trust  Applecross Residents through an Online & Postal Household Survey  District Network operators (SSE)  Technical Partners, Swarco and various battery storage suppliers The outputs from the stakeholder engagement were used to develop a list of site options and to inform a comprehensive understanding of the restraints and feasibility of installing EV chargepoints in Applecross. All parties were supportive of the possibility of the integration of a charger at Applecross, and keen to lend technical expertise and insights where appropriate. Key feedback from these discussions have been included throughout the document. However, Section 4.1 provides an overview of the key outcomes from the Applecross Household Survey.

4.1 Community Survey to Applecross Residents Following initial discussions with ACC, an online and postal survey was sent out to the residents of Applecross between 19th May and 14th June to gather further information about uptake in EV, future uptake and their initial thoughts on supporting the integration of an electric vehicle charger in Applecross. A total of 52 were received during the 27-day period and were used to support the feasibility assessments.

Table 4 presents a summary of the key soundbites gathered from the 52 households that responded to the survey. Raw results from the survey questions are included in Appendix I.

Table 4 Key household survey responses

Survey Summary

46% of respondents were between the ages of 35 and 60 56% of respondents were female 71% live in a home with more than 1 person 55% of respondents live in the IV54 8L postcode area. 53% of respondents work in the IV54 8L postcode area. 79% own, lease or have access to 1 or 2 cars Only 9.6% own, lease or have access to an EV

EV Owners

60% bought their EV brand new

18 Urban Foresight 80% have owned their EV for less than 3 years Lower driving costs, lower service/maintenance costs, and environmental impact were shown to be the main reasons EV owners bought an electric vehicle 100% use their EV daily Commuting to work and shopping were the main use of their EVs Of these, 60% mainly use their EV for commuting to work All travel a different number of miles a week in their EV (see graph) 60% have driven over 10,000 miles since purchasing their EV 80% drive about the same number of miles than they did in their petrol/diesel vehicle 100% are satisfied with their EV and its ability to meet your needs 80% charge their vehicle off-street 100% charge their EV daily

All Vehicle Owners

62% primarily park their vehicles off-street Of the 24% who park on street, they live within 2.5 miles from the proposed charger sites

All Respondents

The main barriers to purchasing an EV were the Limited range (miles) of the vehicles, upfront cost, and lack of public charging options Of these, the majority stated the upfront cost was the main barrier 90% stated they would support the installation of a public EV charger in Applecross. 10% said they may support it. Those who answered “maybe” did not give a reason. 82% responded “yes” when asked if they would be more likely to support the installation if it were supplied by the majority of low carbon/renewable energy generated by the Community Hydro Scheme, the other 18% responded “maybe”. 79% noted they would be happy to pay for an EV charger knowing that it was being supplied by locally generated clean energy. 62% said they would be happy to pay for using an EV charger if the cost worked out the same as a petrol or diesel. 62% would be happy to pay for using an EV charger ONLY if the cost was cheaper than petrol or diesel. 67% would be happy to pay more for an EV charger knowing that it was being supplied by locally generated clean energy. 83% said they would pay to use an EV charger 81% said that access to an EV charger supported by locally generated clean energy will provide them with more confidence when thinking about purchasing an EV. 79% agree that a low carbon community car club/car sharing scheme would be beneficial to the Applecross community. However, only 40% said they would be likely to make use of a low carbon community car club scheme if it were available.

19 Urban Foresight Would you support the installation of a publicly How many vehicles does your household own, accessible electric vehicle charger in Applecross? lease or have access to? Maybe 10% 6% 6% 9%

46% 33%

Yes 90%

Yes No Maybe 0 1 2 3 4 More than 4

How many of these cars are a Battery Electric Vehicle or Plug-in Hybrid (hereafter, EV)? How often do you charge your vehicle?

10% 20% Daily 0 40% 1 1-2 times per week 2 3-5 times per 3 week 4 1-2 times per More than 4 month 90% 40%

How far would you say you travel using your EV(s) in an average week? Over 300 miles 30 to 40 miles 20% 20% Under 10 miles 10 to 20 miles

20 to 30 miles 30 to 40 miles

40 to 60 miles 60 to 80 miles

80 to 100 miles 100 to 120 miles

120 to 150 miles 60 to 80 miles 120 to 150 miles 90 to 100 miles 20% 20% 150 to 180 miles 180 to 220 miles

220 to 250 miles 250 to 300 miles

100 to 120 miles Over 300 miles 20%

EV Charger in Applecross

25

I would be happy to pay for an EV charger 20 22 21 knowing that it was being supplied by locally generated clean energy

15 16 I would be happy to pay for using an EV 14 charger ONLY if the cost was cheaper 13 than petrol or diesel 10 11 11

Access to an EV charger supported by 5 7 locally generated clean energy will 6 5 5 provide me with more confidence when 4 4 4 4 thinking about purchasing an EV 3 3 3 0 0 1 2 3 4 5

20 Urban Foresight 4.2 Summary The stakeholders involved in the project have been extremely supportive and positive about the project and have identified a clear desire to link community energy projects to the promotion of electric vehicles.

The household survey identified that the large majority of the residents would support the installation of chargers in Applecross and it would encourage them to make the switch to an EV, especially if it was linked to local production of electricity.

21 Urban Foresight Site Appraisal This section describes the approach taken to the determination of sites within Applecross potentially suitable for EV chargers, the assessment process adopted to determine priority sites, and the detailed feasibility assessment carried out for those locations.

5.1 Identification Process The process concentrated on reviewing all locations provided by ACC. A key output of this phase of the study was to provide a fully assessed prioritised site list for ACC to review. This was achieved through a desktop analysis exercise and collaborative stakeholder approach to determine a shortlist that ACC could use to inform a decision on where most suitable to install electric vehicle chargepoints.

Long-listing The first stage in the site selection process was to generate an initial long list of sites. This was achieved using various techniques, including stakeholder engagement, a residential survey and a desktop analysis of local area.

We then used our experience of delivering EV projects across the UK to ensure the vital elements of a successful charging location had been included, from this review additional sites were added to the initial list provided by ACC. The process considered land ownership, future land development and technical electrical requirements.

ACC initially provided 5 sites (A-E) before 3 additional sites (F-H) were added as a result of changes in land ownership and external influences, namely ACC agreeing to purchase the land surrounding the turbine house for affordable housing. Conversations every 2-4 weeks were held with the ACC and local Energy Scotland to discuss options and create a ‘shortlist’ of suitable sites for charge point installation.

22 Urban Foresight Affordable Housing & Allotments As described above, ACC came to an agreement with The Applecross Trust to purchase and develop the land surrounding the turbine house for affordable housing. An outline of the proposed affordable housing sites is shown in Figure 8. The field to the south of the turbine house (area 2) has also been identified as the preferred location for the development of local allotments, with access via the road to the turbine house.

Figure 8 Proposed affordable housing location plan The affordable housing proposal is still at a feasibility stage, however as there is likely to be a requirements for electrical connections in the future, and with designs of plots to be drawn up these will need to be considered in any recommendation for location of EV chargepoints. Further discussion on the impact of the housing scheme has been described throughout this document.

Shortlist Following engagement with stakeholders, a qualitative assessment of the infrastructure was undertaken. As a result, 3 sites were discounted from the process, and 2 were added through evolving discussions with ACC and The Applecross Trust.

Discussions with the Distribution Network Operator also did not rule any sites out with minimum connections of 7kW considered available (more described in the Power Options, Section 6). An overview of the site options and the shortlisting assessment are included overleaf in Table 5.

Individual “factfiles” for the shortlisted sites have also been included in Appendix II. These provide high-level information on each site, including their qualitative assessments, cost estimate for each charger configuration scenario, along with any commentary.

23 Urban Foresight Table 5 Shortlisting assessment

Site Assessment Option Distance Distance Overall Decision Comment Land Passive Additional from from main Scalability site ownership visibility works hydro road impression

No restrictions preventing the installation of ACC A Medium 75m <5m Medium Medium Medium Shortlisted chargepoints at the site, the site is therefore (TBC) shortlisted.

The cost of site development is too prohibitive. B ACC Poor 35m 40m High Poor Poor Discounted The proximity to the river provides an additional flood risk.

No restrictions preventing the installation of C ACC Medium <5m 80m Medium Poor Medium Shortlisted chargepoints at the site, the site is therefore shortlisted.

The site has been earmarked for property Applecross D Medium 70m 22m Low Good Good Discounted development by The Applecross Trust, not Trust carried forward.

No restrictions preventing the installation of ACC E Good 90m <5m High Medium Good Shortlisted chargepoints at the site, the site is therefore (TBC) shortlisted.

The site is extremely space restricted and Applecross F Medium 100m <5m High Low Poor Discounted would not support the development of EV Trust chargepoints.

No restrictions preventing the installation of ACC G Good 115m 5-10m Medium Low Good Shortlisted chargepoints at the site, the site is therefore (TBC) shortlisted. Preferred Option

Applecross Suggested by The Applecross Trust as an H Good 135m <5m Low Medium Good Shortlisted Trust alternative site. Preferred Option

24 Urban Foresight 5.2 Site makeup ACC requested that we investigate the Feasibility of 1 x semi-rapid DC (20-25kW) or Rapid DC (50kW) and 1 x dual outlet standard AC (7 kW) Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Points linked to the Hydro constrained supply with battery storage.

Through preliminary technical stakeholder discussions and a review of charging demand, four different charging scenarios were developed to assess which sites could support different levels of development.

Brief descriptions of each Scenario are provided below, followed by Table 6 presenting an overview of each of the key configuration attributes. Note, battery storage was not considered in Scenario 4 as preliminary discussions identified that the cost to implement this solution would be too prohibitive.

Scenario 1 – 50kW + 7kW The configuration of a triple-outlet 50kW rapid charger and a dual outlet 7kW fast charger was identified as the preferred configuration for ACC through engagement and our analysis of charging requirements described in Section 3. The combination of chargepoints in scenario 1 has a maximum power requirement of 115kVA and a minimum footprint of 80-125m2, with a battery storage at the site of the chargepoints. The rapid chargepoint will require at least a three-phase connection or a battery storage unit with an onboard inverter converting single-phase to three-phase.

Scenario 2 – 22kW DC + 7kW This chargepoint scenario would require a very similar configuration to that of Scenario 1. A three-phase connection and or a battery storage unit with an onboard inverter, and similar footprint would be needed. However, only a smaller portion of the power input would be needed at a maximum of approximately 60 kVA.

25 Urban Foresight Scenario 3 – Standalone 22kW DC A standalone dual-outlet semi-rapid 22kW chargepoint would require a power output of 45kVa. This unit also requires a three-phase, so will require a three-phase connection or the integration of a battery storage solution to convert single-phase incoming connections to three-phase. The scenario will require a minimum footprint of approximately 80-100m2.

Scenario 4 – Standalone 7kW A standalone dual-outlet 7kW fast chargepoint will require a maximum power output of 14kVa and a minimum footprint of approximately 26m2. This scenario would require the lowest level of development and civil works for installation, it is likely only a small concrete plinth and cabling would be required for the chargepoint and feeder pillar. Battery storage is also unlikely to be required in this solution, as it will only require a single-phase connection to the local grid network. However, a simple grid connection would limit the proportion of any hydro energy being captured and integrated into any charging.

Table 6 Summary of charger configuration scenarios and the associated requirements.

Power input Footprint High-level cost requirements (kVa) Without With Battery Chargers Battery Configuration Battery Storage Storage Scenario Storage

1 – 50kW + 7kW 115kVa 60 m2 80-125 m2 £35,000 £93,500

26 Urban Foresight 2 – 22kW DC + 7kW 58kVa 60 m2 80-125 m2 £30,000 £93,500

3 – 22kW DC 45kVa 30 m2 80-100 m2 £24,500 £93,500

4 – 7kW 14kVa 30 m2 N/A £5,500 N/A

5.3 Site Costing Building on the fixed hardware costs associated in Table 6, this section provides an overview of the total high-level costs for each configuration scenario, including battery storage and other additional works such as the estimated civils and cabling costs for each of the shortlisted site options described in Section 4.

As shown in Table 7, the costs for Scenario 1-3 are broadly similar with costing in the region of £136,500-£159,000 when including battery storage. At a site options level, the costs are also relatively similar for each shortlisted options. This is due to the sites being located in relatively close proximity to the turbine house, and the current local grid connections having available limited power (more described in Section 6.3). These existing local connections are also trenched along the sites having a low impact on length of cabling and civils required.

During the project, ACC and Local Energy Scotland stated that there was potentially £100,000 of funding available from the Highland Council to support the funding of integrating a charger and clean energy. These high-level costs would therefore suggest up to £55,000 of further funding may be required from ACC or another source to cover the capital costs.

However, the lower costs (£12,500 - £18,500) associated with Scenario 4 could be considered a more affordable option but will integrate a high-utilisation rate of electricity generated by the hydro scheme.

Table 7 High-level costs associated with each of charger configuration scenarios for each of the shortlisted site options, including hardware

Site Configuration High-Level Cost Site 1 2 3 4

Option A £159,000 £154,000 £140,000 £12,500

Option B Discounted

Option C £150,000 £144,500 £140,000 £18,500 Option D Discounted Option E £153,500 £148,000 £136,500 £13,500

Option F Discounted

Option G £154,500 £149,000 £139,000 £15,500

Option H £158,000 £152,000 £144,000 £18,500

27 Urban Foresight Average £155,000 £149,500 £139,900 £15,700

Note, the costs provided in Table 7 have been developed from an available cost to connect a 7kW connection to the existing local grid network. If a three-phase connection were to be required to these site options, an additional £150,000 would be required.

These costs are also developed from standard industry costings, with further information provided on the breakdown of these in Appendix III. In addition, these costs are also broken down into high-level hardware costs, electrical connection costs & associated works, along with site civils, and contingencies in each of the site option factfiles (Appendix II).

5.4 Summary A short list of 5 feasible sites have been identified which should be considered by ACC in conjunction with future developments plans for the areas and findings from Section 6 of this report.

A number charging scenarios have been identified in the preferred order and these have all been costed at a high level to allow for comparison. It should be noted the significant cost of a battery storage unit and also the significant cost associated with a 3 phase supply this is explored in more detail in Sections 6 & 7.

28 Urban Foresight Power Options As the project aims to better utilise the hydro turbine generation, it was identified discussions with SSE and our technical partners Swarco would be required to determine the different feasible power options for integration of chargepoints with the energy likely to be generated by the hydro turbine.

This section therefore provides and overview of the technical requirements, and challenges associated with the integration of the hydro turbine, and inclusion of ancillary elements, such as battery storage.

6.1 Charger Requirements Table 8 provides a summary of three main types of electric vehicle chargers considered: “fast”, “semi-rapid” and “rapid” with each of the chargers requiring a different level of power and cabling to support them. The most notable power requirement for chargers are that the higher-powered chargers, 22kW and 43/50kW rapids require inputs of three-phase power. Since the existing hydro turbine export cable and local grid network is constrained to a single-phase supply, this represents a significant challenge in integrating higher- powered chargers. Further detail on the options for grid connectivity and potential solutions are described in Sections 6.3 and 6.4.

Table 8 Types of vehicle chargepoints and typical charging times

Requirements Noise Dimensions outputs (D x W x H) Typical Power input Phase (dBA) Charging requirements Vehicle Chargepoint Time (kVa)

230V AC 1P + 254 x 366 x 7kW Fast 3-5 hours 7-14 <55 N +PE 1400 mm 400 V AC 3P + 310 x 900 x 22kW DC Semi-rapid 1-2.5 hours 24-45 <55 N + PE 1700 mm 400 V AC 3P + 350 x 940 x 43-50kW Rapid 20-50 mins 75-96 55 N + PE 1800 mm

6.2 AppleJuice Hydro Turbine

Description Utilising water from the Allt Breugach burn, the intake draws water through a section of buried pipeline to the turbine house, pictured in Figure 9. The turbine house is located within a farm field, owned by the ACC with a small access road the turbine house. The electricity generated at any one time by the scheme is entirely dependent on the flow of the burn.

29 Urban Foresight The 90kW capacity scheme exports and sells the first 50kW to the national grid. The scheme creates income through electricity wholesale and the Scottish Government’s Feed in Tariff (FiT) Payments. The scheme as a whole had a capital cost of £746,000, generating approximately £106,356 in its first full year.

Figure 9 AppleJuice Turbine House The turbine house has a dedicated transformer to connect the national grid, the two-way transformer therefore has the capability to export and import on a 300mm single phase cable. The cable import runs system components, motors and recording systems inside the turbine house.

Power output The estimated output of the hydro turbine is 447,061 kWh, or approximately an average 1,225 kWh per day throughout the year. After export, (the first 50kW) this equates to approximately 538 kWh per day or approximately 196,400 kWh through the year of useable energy which could be supplied to an electric vehicle charger.

Throughout the project the electrical output of the Applejuice hydro turbine was monitored to determine if the energy generated would be enough to support the chargepoint electrical usage in real terms. The combination of charging demand analysis, from the Gairloch Community Hall and Torridon Inn Chargers, with the hydro output data provided further technical queries, from which SSE and Swarco provided technical input.

Over an initial 11-day period between 30th March 2020 and 9th April 2020 the hydro turbine generated an average of 612 kWh of electricity per day (Figure 10). However, over this period, only 15% of the power generated would have been useable (after export) to power electric vehicle chargepoints. This equated to a total of 483 kWh across 11-days.

Table 9 presents key headline statistics of the output from the hydro scheme, over the 11- day period. It is worth noting that there was a 57 hour period with high water levels

30 Urban Foresight (exceeding 2500mm), in which the hydro scheme recorded no electricity generation, as shown in Figure 10. As a result, the average daily useable energy generation recorded, after 50kW is exported to the grid, was recorded to be approximately 43.91 kWh.

Table 9 Headline statistics from the hydro output 30th March – 9th April

30th March - 9th April (11 days)

Total useable energy generation (kWh) 483 Max days without useable energy 6 Percentage of power useable % 14.77

Daily average useable energy generation recorded (kWh) 43.91 Daily minimum useable energy generation recorded (kWh) 39 Daily maximum useable energy generation recorded (kWh) 240

Figure 10 Hydro output analysis 30th March – 9th April (11-days) Based on the usage assumptions gathered from Gairloch Community Hall and Torridon Inn (15kWh on a good day), 43.91 kWh of useable energy in 24 hours would certainly support all the current charging configuration scenarios on a given day, without the support of additional grid support and perhaps even a battery. However, this is a slightly limited assumption, as the turbine also failed to generate any useable energy over a period of up to 6-days during this 11-day period. Furthermore, the lack of energy generation continued, with the scheme generating no electricity for a further 70-day period (9th April 2020 - 17th June 2020). This is mainly due to months of April and May receiving record dry weather, so could be considered an extreme example, but subsequently had a

31 Urban Foresight significant impact on how prominent the hydro turbine would feature in the design of any system and its reliability in the absence of a backup supply/generator to power the chargers. Further detail on hydro modelling scenarios are included in Section 8.6.

6.3 Grid Connectivity This section presents an overview of the key discussions held with SSE on the current status of the grid-network and potential options to support the types of charger configurations.

Given the findings described in Section 6.2, it was likely that the charger system may have to be designed around the available grid-connections of the surrounding area with the hydro acting as a supporting clean energy source in the system.

Information on the shortlisted sites were therefore submitted to Distribution Network Operator (DNO) Engineers at SSE, to understand the feasibility of a grid supply from a local network perspective.

It was determined that the technical feasibility of providing a connection to the charger locations would be possible, but there were three different connections options to be considered, single-phase, split-phase and three-phase. Each have their own benefits and limitations and have been described in sections 6.3.1 - 6.3.3. Figure 11 has been used as a reference in each of the connection options.

Figure 11 Overview of the SSE grid connections in relation to the shortlisted sites

32 Urban Foresight Single-phase connection The simplest connection to the chargers would be to install a single-phase connection. As shown in Figure 11, there is already an existing line (point 3.) travelling from Applecross Farm 100kVA transformer to furthest buildings to the East of Option G.

As a single-phase connection, it could support a connection between 7kW and 23kW. However, as the power increases from 7kW, the costs are likely to increase. This is due to the Applecross Farm transformer already supporting other buildings and housing in the area, and increased connections will be adding further strain on the transformer / capacity available. In turn this would lead to the requirement for reinforcements, such as an increase in capacity through a new transformer, extending a new HV line, and/or replacement of wider cabling along the existing trench line.

Highly indicative costings provided verbally by SSE suggested around £2,500 to £5,000 for a 7kW connection and a higher estimate for £20,000 for a 23kW connection. However, this would require a formal estimate for a greater level of accuracy, and to understand the remaining capacity on the transformer. It was therefore indicated that a 7kW connection should be relatively straightforward to connect with no additional reinforcements. With the cables being in close proximity to each of the options, there would likely be similar costs for any of the shortlisted site options.

In power terms, if a connection were supplied nominally at an average of 7kW over a 24- hr period, there could potentially be a maximum of 168 kWh of useable energy supplied to the charger system configuration. For a 23kW connection this will be 552 kWh. The 7kW alone will be sufficient to support the current usage derived from a “good day” daily average of 15kWh and even a “peak day” of 155kWh featuring at the Torridon and Gairloch Community Hall chargers.

However, as described in Section 6.1, the higher-powered chargers, 22kW and 43-50kW require 3-phase connections. Without any additional equipment (e.g. inverters) to convert single-phase to three-phase, a single-phase connection will only support a 7kW charger.

Split-phase Split-phase is similar to single-phase in the fact that it is just the bundling of multiple single-phase lines to provide greater power outputs. For example, a 2-phase 7kW cable could produce 14kW at a nominal voltage of 460V in combination. This would therefore increase the capacity available to the chargers from between 336 kWh to 1,104 kWh per day for a 2-phase connection.

However, a split-phase will likely be a greater cost than single-phase as the existing trench will require a new cable and the capacity of the transformer and associated transformers. In addition, despite the increase the voltage and connection power, the nominal voltage would not be sufficient to support the requirements of the higher-powered chargers in Section 6.1, without any inverters to convert the connection to 3-phase.

33 Urban Foresight Three-phase As a grid constrained area, a three-phase connection is undoubtedly the costliest option, but is the most technically suitable and desired for the design of any EV charger system. It supports all charger configurations and will form a suitable supply for the analysed charger usage for years to come.

SSE suggested this connection would cost in the region of £150,000+ from an earlier quote generated for the area. ACC may therefore need to consider whether the plans for affordable housing in the fields will require a three-phase connection, it could be that a future upgrade to the area could support rapid chargers.

Grid Connectivity Summary In summary, all three connection options are technically possible from SSE’s feedback. However, ACC and relevant partners will need to decide on the most appropriate option from a cost point of view. A 7kW single-phase connection is likely to be sufficient for the daily demands, however a converter from 230V single-phase to 400V three-phase will be required in the system to support higher-powered charger configurations (more on the potential solution in Section 6.4). Given the costs and limitations on requiring conversion equipment, split-phase is likely to be the least preferable option.

Whilst a three-phase connection will support all charging equipment and will enable future-proofing, the costs of the new supply are likely to be significant. However, plans for developing an affordable housing scheme may also have to consider the installation of three-phase connections, and therefore a three-phase upgrade could be something ACC may need to consider long-term. However, it is also worth noting that SSE generally recommend ACC seek the option that is likely to include future projects to minimise the likely avoidable future costs of replicating or rewiring work.

Table 10 Summary of the three connection options

Connection Daily energy Types of charger Ease of High-level option support (kWh) support implementation Indicative cost1

Single-phase Likely to be 168 3kW, 7kW £2,500-£5,000 (7kW) available

Possible need for Single-phase additional LV 336 3kW, 7kW £20,000 (23kW) cable rewiring or reinforcements

Split-phase 236 3kW, 7kW Definite need for £20,000 + Additional LV

1 Not these costs must be considered high-level and indicative from verbal discussions with SSE. Formal quotations will be required to gather more accurate/realistic costs.

34 Urban Foresight cable rewiring or reinforcements

3kW, 7kW, 22kW, Brand new Three-phase 130 ~£150,000+ 43/50kW+ connection

For detailed options appraisal of these different connections, SSE can perform an in- depth feasibility assessment to cost a few hundred pounds but is dependent on the number and complexity of the options being considered. These feasibility assessments can take up to 3 months.

6.4 Battery Storage Technology There is growing popularity of battery storage systems integrated into EV charging systems as intermediate power sources in grid-constrained settings across the globe. Paired up with smart energy management software, batteries will optimise the capture and storage of locally generated energy, in turn maximising its integration during periods of demand and reducing the reliance and strain of less clean energy from the local grid.

For example, the Princes Street electric vehicle charging hub in Dundee, comprising of 6 rapid and 3 semi-rapid chargers is one of Scotland’s most actively used chargers. The hub is supported by a 36kW canopy of solar PV panels generating 31,580 kWh per annum and the integration of a 90kWh/60kW battery storage solution with smart energy management software. By introducing a battery storage technology, the potential solar utilisation has increased from 88 to 97% to solely charge electric vehicles.

Addressing the challenge As described in Sections 6.2 and 6.3, there are two key challenges identified in the integration of a charger to the local network:

1. Maximising the integration of electricity generated by the hydro turbine; and 2. The ability to convert a single-phase supply to a three-phase supply to enable the connection higher-powered charging equipment of Scenarios 1-3.

Through multiple technical discussions with partners Swarco it was identified that a battery storage would ideally address both these challenges.

In real-terms at an assumed demand of 15kWh per day, a 90kWh battery at Applecross could potentially support 6 days of EV charging (15 kWh per day) without the additional of any hydro generation or local grid support. This would therefore comfortably support a realistic scenario of the hydro generation output recorded between 30th March and 9th April (referred to in Section 6.2). However, in extreme cases where the hydro turbine does not generate any power, even a 7kW single-phase connection could be ‘trickled’ into the battery overnight/time. As a result, a battery in Applecross brings certainty to the availability of supply and will optimise the integration of clean locally generated energy. A

35 Urban Foresight battery storage system could also include a converter or inverter, which could theoretically provide the option for single-phase inputs from the hydro turbine and local grid network to be converted to three-phase, enabling three-phase semi-rapid and rapid hardware to be included at the site.

Table 112 provides an overview of how the battery system would be of benefit to each of the charging configuration scenario requested by ACC.

As stated previously, Scenarios 1-3 are not technically feasible on just a single-phase connection. Therefore, a battery storage with option for an onboard converter will be required to upgrade a single-phase connection, costing approximately £93,500 or an upgrade to three-phase across the local network will be required, amounting to approximately £150,000+. An optimal solution would be to include both a three-phase and a battery storage solution but will cost approximately in excess of £243,500 without any of the additional hardware, and site civils considered.

Scenario 4 would be feasible without a battery and can also be installed on either single- phase or three-phase connection. However, the added option of a battery will provide greater integration of any electricity generated from the hydro scheme. Although this will cost in excess of £98,500 on a single-phase connection including connections. It is recommended that a three-phase supply is significant when considering the advantages of developing scenarios 1-3.

Table 11 Summary of impact of battery integration on feasibility of charger configuration and electricity generated by the hydro scheme.

Connection Connection Feasible Likely Technically Likely Likely costs option option without hydro feasible hydro of battery? integration with integration connection without battery? with and battery battery battery

Single-phase No N/A Yes High ~£98,500 Scenario 1 – 50kW & 7kW Three-phase Yes Low Yes High ~£300,000

Single-phase No N/A Yes High ~£98,500 Scenario 2 – 22kW & 7kW Three-phase Yes Low Yes High ~£295,000

Single-phase No N/A Yes High ~£98,500 Scenario 3 – 22kW Three-phase Yes Low Yes High ~£285,000

Single-phase Yes Low Yes High ~£98,500 Scenario 4 – 7kW Three-phase N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

2 Note, split-phase connections have been excluded from this table, as a least preferred option stated in Section 6.3.

36 Urban Foresight Commercial feasibility Although the capabilities of a battery storage solution converting single-phase to three- phase are technically feasible, we performed a mini-outreach exercise with key battery manufacturers/suppliers to identify if such solutions were readily available on the market.

Unfortunately, our market outreach did not identify any suppliers that currently support such a solution. Suppliers generally agreed that conversion from single-phase to three- phase was technically feasible, but due to a lack of general business enquiries and the design costs associated with development, that the solution had not yet been considered an economically viable investment for suppliers.

It may therefore be recommended that an additional market engagement piece be undertaken to assess whether suppliers can/will feasibly design a system with an inverter included and the associated costs of such bespoke development.

If a technical solution is identified then ACC may consider installing a 7kW charger and a battery storage system. However, if any future three-phase equipment were to be included, the storage will have to be replaced/upgraded with the correct elements, which may in effect become too prohibitive, particularly with a low energy demand profile expected at a 7kW when compared to rapid charging.

6.5 Summary An initial analysis of the power required to support the various charging scenarios was carried out with the main finding that any rapid or semi-rapid charger requires a three- phase connection.

A review of the power generated from the hydro scheme identified that in theory it provides enough power to meet current demand however the unpredictable nature of the output would cause significant issues to any charging infrastructure without an additional grid connection.

There were 3 options identified for a suitable grid connection and all were deemed possible by the DNO, however each one has either limitations in relation to chargers supported or would require significant investment.

A battery storage solution is the only realistic option to utilise the available hydro power, however the ability for this solution to deliver the required output from a single phase supply, while being the most cost effective solution is not readily available.

37 Urban Foresight Operating Models

7.1 Commercial models Choosing the right ownership model is important to ensure the financial viability of a chargepoint infrastructure project. There are 4 main models currently active in the UK at present, these are described below:

1. Own and operate: the organisation (e.g. Applecross Community Company) arranges installation of chargers, and operates the chargepoints themselves. They have full responsibility for the network including maintenance and back-office systems.  Benefits: this approach offers the highest potential returns  Drawbacks: requires substantial upfront capital to procure and install the network and ongoing resource requirements to ensure ongoing operation and maintenance is adequately provided for. Local authorities may not have the necessary expertise to install and operate a chargepoint network.

2. Third party operator: the organisation (e.g. Applecross Community Company) funds and arranges installation of chargers, and procures a contractor for operations and maintenance.  Benefits: outsources the expertise needed to run a network  Drawbacks: requires substantial upfront capital and reduces revenue compared to the own and operate model, making it harder to recover the initial investment.

3. Concessionaire model or lease ownership: a third-party operator is procured to fund the hardware and installation costs and run the network. They recoup costs through retaining revenue generated. The organisation (e.g. Applecross Community Company) should take responsibility for ensuring that sites have sufficient electricity supply and are suitable for installation (e.g. land ownership is theirs/approved etc). In this model, the organisation would still own the infrastructure and retain at the end of the contract.  Benefits: upfront costs are reduced, making it a good option for organisations facing budgetary challenges, and risk is similarly reduced. It is flexible: for example, the supplier can rent equipment to the local authority and split the profits. It is also relatively easy to transition to a new supplier once the first lease agreement expires. In addition, organisation retains control over where chargers are installed, and other standards of service (e.g. specifying levels of public access, through specifying back office provision requirements, or requirement for pay as you go payment options)

38 Urban Foresight  Drawbacks: the organisation’s share of revenue is reduced and would be zero in a concessionaire model. If the organisation doesn’t ensure that sites have enough electrical capacity, network operators may target sites where installation costs are low, leading to low utilisation rates.

4. Private operator: third party operators install hardware and operate their own networks across Applecross. They could be incentivised to locate chargers in specific locations through leasing of land.  Benefits: very low risk for the organisation. Low capital and resource requirement  Drawbacks: the organisation has no control over where chargers go, or ability to ensure standards of maintenance and service are upheld. Different operators work on their own back office systems, meaning users have to be signed up to different providers to use different charge point types. Low user experience, which can affect overall levels of EV uptake.

7.2 Funding We are aware that Highland Council’s Sustainable transport coordination team may have up to £100,000 available to fund the costs of an innovative EV charging project in Applecross.

In addition, there are other funding pots available for similar types of innovative projects from Transport Scotland’s Low Carbon Travel and Transport Fund. Projects have looked at various options to just installing EV chargers with battery storage and/or renewables to developing low carbon mobility hubs including, these elements with ebikes and car sharing.

Projects in the Highlands can receive up to 80% of the grant. ACC could therefore consider the LCTT fund as an alternative funding source if costs are considered too prohibitive for Highland Council’s £100,000 sustainable transport opportunity. The fund is currently closed for opportunities, but typically open between mid-late summer, and supports projects between £250,000 and £2 million in size.

If it were to be required, further funding opportunities could be explored as part of Phase 2 work.

7.3 Tariffs & Enforcement To ensure the delivery of a sustainable chargepoint infrastructure, the introduction of tariffs are seen as vital to ensure the ability to operate and maintain the chargers. Section 3.3.1 of the report details current tariffs in place in the area. Section 8 of the report provides guidance on appropriate tariffs for ACC based on demand, revenue and cashflow.

39 Urban Foresight A key factor in successful infrastructure projects is the ability to be able to enforce any rules associated with the chargers. The two most popular methods are through Overstay Charges or through enforcement of a Traffic Road Order (TRO).

Overstay chargers – These are usually automatically implemented by back office provider (e.g £5 per hour over maximum stay) and will discourage users from overstaying their time, however these only work where a user is plugged in so do not impact on ICE vehicles parking in the charging bays.

TRO these allow the appropriate organisation to give non complaint users a Penalty Charge Notice if they are in breach of the time limits or are parked in the bay incorrectly. These are very effective however require a resource to deliver enforcement.

Consideration should be given to the most appropriate option for the area and how this will be policed or implemented.

7.4 Back office The charge point back office system is integral to robust ChargePoint monitoring an maintenance. A back office system, also referred to as a Chargepoint Management Service, controls access to chargepoints. The service usually:

 Holds data on the locations of the chargepoints on the network  Sends and receives commands via a secure telephone network connection (usually mobile)  Stores membership details of users  Monitors the health of chargepoints on the network  Performs firmware/software upgrades when necessary  Allow remote access (e.g. to remote stop a charging sessions).

These key features are similar across most systems. Advanced features can allow for advanced requirements such as load management and time-of-use tariff adjustments.

Consideration of what data is collected and how this is managed can be very powerful in understanding real needs, user behaviour, and therefore in planning for effective expansion of a network/provision. it is recommended that as a minimum the following data is collected in a back office system:

 Charge sessions (location, time, duration, power output), potentially with recording of user IDs (in full compliance with GDPR)  Fault recording with adequate information from error codes to allow patterns to be determined and understood.  Tariffs applied and revenue generation

Access to this data should me made available to the procuring organisation and any hosts, and they should plan to make resource available to monitor it regularly to ensure the effectiveness of the proposed access regime.

40 Urban Foresight For any maintenance contract let, it is recommended that minimum levels of performance are specified. Defining KPIs and ensuring there is a contractual complication to low performance, including termination of contract in the most extreme case, is important in ensuring confidence in a reliable network.

The communication protocol for electric vehicles is known as the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP). This effectively enables the communication between Electric vehicle (EV) charging stations and a central management system. OCPP is released in different version, with chargepoint hardware conforming to different versions. If ACC are to include a battery storage solution, and better utilise the energy generated by the hydro it is recommended that any hardware is has minimal compliance with the latest standard V1.6. This essentially allows better communication between the battery storage and electric vehicle chargers enabling smart charging and load management.

However, it is worth noting that any hardware currently registered on the CPS system is only supported up to v1.5. As a result, to better integrate battery and hydro, additional work-around equipment will be required. Despite this, the CPS contract is currently out to tender, so the specification of any new chargers on the network is not yet known, and may indeed accept V1.6 in the future. As an alternative to CPS, many third-party providers will support v1.6 in their own back office packages.

7.5 Other Considerations To progress any of the sites investigated, it may be necessary to obtain certain permissions/approvals. These could be achieved by Applecross Community Company or could be included within the design requirements of any contract for installation as the responsibility of the appointed contractor.

 Planning consent  Wayleaves The options for planning consent will be explored as part of any Phase 2 work for the decided option.

7.6 Summary To ensure the long term success of any charging infrastructure the correct operating model is required, we have identified 4 options with benefits and drawbacks with the decision on best option driven by alignment with funding and outcomes required.

To ensure that availability and utilisation of the chargers is maximised a suitable way of managing the spaces is required, with the amin option being overstay charges or traffic road orders. A reliable back office is vital to ensure the consumer has a positive experience as well as acting as a key feature in any monitoring and maintenance programme for the chargers. These elements are key to ensuring good utilisation rates and avoid the chargers becoming redundant assets.

41 Urban Foresight Business Case Analysis Building upon the initial high-level estimate of capital costs for installation set out in Appendix II and III, consideration has been given to the operational costs of the infrastructure. This will help ACC put in context the financial considerations regarding what operational model to adopt. Note, despite Scenarios 1-3 being discounted as feasible options in Section 6 – Power Options, these scenarios have still been included in the analysis, for when battery storage solutions become commercially available.

The method analysis is set out below, followed by a discussion of key findings. Cashflow spreadsheets for each of the relevant analysis are included in Appendix IV (without hydro), V (with hydro) and VI (with new 90kW).

8.1 Method The calculation method is illustrated in Figure 12.

Figure 12 Method for calculating demands

8.2 Demand The closest charger to Applecross is a 50kW rapid charger located at Torridon Inn, and a further 30-miles thereafter to Gairloch Community Hall, where there is another rapid charger. In the first instance, usage of chargepoints has been determined by considering data from these recorded in 2017 (Torridon Inn) and early January 2020 (Gairloch Community Hall). In addition, since the scenarios are looking at the opportunity of more than one charger, such as 50kW & 7kW specifically, data derived from a hub at Fort William has been used to determine this usage.

42 Urban Foresight Opening levels of use have been established by adopting the average number of charging events and kWh of energy consumed at these chargers mentioned above, and determined for each of the four charger configuration scenarios. Since they had different configurations of chargers, the levels of expected use would share different profiles:

Table 12 Assumed usage scenarios for each of the different charger configuration scenarios

Average max max kWh max kWh/ses sessions/ Average length of charges max kWh Power in 16 hr charges sion day kWh/day session in a 16hr in a year day in a year (hrs) day 7 7.62 0.5 3.81 7.60 1.71 13.03 624 4,757 22 9.07 1.01 9.16 4.75 2.74 24.82 999 9,060 50 15 0.68 10.20 0.83 15.6 234.00 5,694 85,410 Hub (50 & 7kW) 14.13 0.74 10.46 1.04 17.31 244.67 6,318 89,306 Hub (22 & 7kW) 8.55 1.10 9.39 5.94 4.45 38.01 1,623 13,874

Figure 13 presents an overview of the cumulative number of plug-in vehicles that be on roads around Applecross by 2032. Note that the historic growth rate between 2018/19 is more or less on track to meet the 2032 targets, however only if it continues year-on-year.

9000 s e l

c 8000 i h e v

n 7000 i - g u l

P 6000

f o

r

e 5000 b m u N

4000 e v i t a l 3000 u m u

C 2000

1000

0 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Historic compound annual growth rate 2018/19 S-curve pattern of innovation

Figure 13 Project vehicle numbers in Applecross across two different growth profiles through to 2032.

8.3 Tariff Scenario To understand the levels of potential revenue for the different site configuration options, 4 tariff scenarios have been considered:

 Scenario 1: no tariff applied  Scenario 2: Tariff (p/kWh) set at 15% higher than domestic electricity prices. This is considered appropriate level for

43 Urban Foresight  Scenario 3: 38p connection fee and a 25p/kWh tariff (this is considered to be a more premium level tariff  Scenario 4: blended tariff, 38p connection fee a variable p/kWh tariff for each type of charger: 7kW, 15p/kWh; 22kW, 20p/kWh and 50kW, 30p/kWh.

Note, if the chargers are on the CPS network additional costs will be added to any model, a connection fee, merchant banking fee, and admin fee. The CPS network is currently out for tender, so these costs are not yet known and have therefore not been included.

8.4 Assumptions The calculation of possible operating costs incorporated the following assumptions:

 Costs of maintenance and back-office support have been estimated by costs of operating similar infrastructure for other real-life examples in the UK: £600 for dual outlet 7kW chargers per year; £1,600 for 22kW DC chargers; £1,800 for 50kW chargers and approximately £1,250 a year for a 100kWh battery storage system  Costs of electricity have been estimated utilising Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy’s Emission Projections3  To determine the usage and subsequent electricity costs/revenue opportunities for each different configuration, we applied the assumed data profiles described in Table 12. As described above, this data was derived from analysis of chargers at the Torridon Inn, Gairloch Community Hall, and Fort William.  The number of charging sessions for each configuration scenario were increased year on year proportionally to the predicted increase in number of plug-in vehicles expected in Applecross for each growth scenario.  Each shortlisted site has been costed to include consideration of all 4 of the charger configurations. These costs are highlighted throughout the document and the factfiles in Appendix II.  £100,000 of a grant from the Highland Council/Local Energy Scotland has been included in the capital costs for configurations requiring innovative battery storage technology (e.g. Configuration Scenarios 1, 2 and 3).  It must be noted that the current usage assumptions are based on chargers which are currently free to use. However, since 86% of survey respondents stated that they would pay to use a charger, these usage assumptions have been assumed.  Capital costs assume a single-phase 7kW connection cost to connect all scenarios. An additional £150,000 will be required to upgrade the costs to three-phase.

To determine possible cashflow scenarios, the average capital cost estimates were included for each scenario, to provide an indication of the balance of cashflow in each case in as few scenarios. The average costs assumed have been described in Table 13.

3 BEIS (2019) Updated energy and emission projections, Annex M: Growth Assumptions and Prices

44 Urban Foresight Table 13 Average site configuration high-level costs

Site Configuration High-Level Cost Scenario 1 – 50kW & 7kW 2 – 22kW & 7kW 3 – 22kW 4 – 7kW Average £154,900 £149,600 £140,100 £15,700 Cost after Grant £54,900 £49,600 £40,100 £15,700

8.5 Key findings

Tariff Scenario 1 Free charging (Scenario 1) would potentially incentivise users to switch to electric vehicles. However, this will allow no return on investment to contribute towards the operational and maintenance (O&M) costs, or the capital costs of the chargers.

Tariff Scenario 2 When prices are set at 15% above domestic electricity prices (Scenario 2), revenue will begin to fully cover the O&M costs by years 5-7 across each of the charger configuration scenarios. From year 7 onwards, there is an annual surplus, which could be re-invested into additional infrastructure.

Without considering any re-investment, the payback period on capital cost outlay is not expected until 2029-2031 for charger configurations 1,2 and 3. However, the standalone 7kW (configuration 4) could achieve an earlier payback slightly earlier by 2029.

Site Configuration Scenario Expected O&M costs covered Expected payback period

1 – 50W & 7kW Years 6 – 7 11 - 12 years 2 – 22kW & 7kW Years 6 - 7 11 - 12 years 3 – 22kW Years 6 10 - 13 years 4 – 7kW Year 5 10 - 11 years

Tariff Scenario 3 An upper tariff of 25p/kWh and a 38p connection fee generates a more attractive return covering operation and maintenance costs as early as 2022 for a standalone 7kW and by the end of 2024 for the remaining configuration scenarios.

Without considering any re-investment, the payback period on capital cost outlay is also earlier than tariff 2, by 1-3 years.

However, in experience with engaging with established electric vehicle users, connection charges are known to impact on user experience. Customers tend to prefer to be charged for the energy they have been supplied, and connection fees encourage dwell time. Furthermore, for chargers rated below an output of 22kW, a 25p/kWh tariff would lie

45 Urban Foresight within the upper quartile of existing tariffs across the UK; it is typically associated with higher-powered chargers.

Site Configuration Scenario Expected O&M costs covered Expected payback period

1 – 50W & 7kW Year 5 10 – 11 years 2 – 22kW & 7kW Year 5 11 – 12 years 3 – 22kW Year 5 9 – 11 years 4 – 7kW Year 3 8 – 9 years

Tariff Scenario 4 Given the prohibitive pricing concerns addressed in Tariff Scenario 3, a blended tariff of a 38p connection fee of 15p/kWh; 22kw at 20p/kWh and 30p/kWh for 50kW chargers.

Revenue will begin to fully cover O&M costs as early as year 5 for configuration scenario 1 (50kW and 7kW) and 4 (7kW), with the 22kW scenarios starting to cover the costs from year 6.

Without considering any re-investment, the payback period on capital cost outlay is presented as similar to Tariff 3, however, configuration Scenario 1 (50kW & 7kW), appears to generate a better overall payback in comparison to Tariff 3 due to 5p/kWh added to the tariff and the fact that is shares a much larger utilisation rate (97.5% of session energy drawn) than the 7kW charger.

Indications from tariff 4 would suggest that a blended tariff does not have a significant difference to the cashflow but could be more accepting for users to pay for the type of service e.g. power that they receive. However, it is apparent that a lower blended tariff could have a significant impact on the 7kW charger.

Site Configuration Scenario Expected O&M costs covered Expected payback period

1 – 50W & 7kW Year 5 9 – 10 years 2 – 22kW & 7kW Years 6 - 7 11 – 12 years 3 – 22kW Year 6 10 – 11 years 4 – 7kW Year 5 11 – 12 years

8.6 Including hydro power The above scenarios do not consider if the hydro turbine were to be utilised in supporting the chargers. These are considered purely on the basis of the hydro turbine not generating any power over a period of 70-days during the project. However, April and May 2020 encountered record spells of dry weather, and were also in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic, which may have had impacts on the operation and routine maintenance to the hydro turbine.

46 Urban Foresight Therefore, this section provides an additional overview of the potential for hydro generation to contribute to the supply of the charger, acting as a form of free revenue/cost saving on electricity that would otherwise be purchased from the local grid to supply the charger. 3 additional scenarios have been considered assuming the nominal rated capacity of the hydro turbine 447,061kWh per year (~1,225 kWh per day), and only generation over 50kW is likely to be useable for the support of the charger:

 Shoulder / Dry season: 15% hydro utilisation rate: This reflects the amount of useable hydro generated over the period between 30th March – 9th April. As described above this lower utilisation rate could have been the shoulder into the record dry season.  Mixed season: 50% hydro utilisation rate: this considers that the hydro turbine is fluctuating between wet and dry weather, but is generally consistently generating power. Since any energy is prioritised to be exported for the first 50kW, it was assumed that only 50% would be useable for the supply of the charger.  Wet season: 80% hydro utilisation rate:

A summary of each of the hydro scenario assumptions and usage limitations have been included in Table 14.

Table 14 Assumed utilisation rates at three different useable energy scenarios of total generation; 15%, 50% and 80%.

Hydro utilisation rate scenario (year 1 – 2020) 15% 50% 80%

Annual energy generation potential (kWh) 447,061 447,061 447,061 Average daily energy generation potential (kWh) 1,225 1,225 1,225 Max daily useable energy (kWh) 539 539 539 Approximate max daily useable energy (kWh) 81 269 431 Average energy useable per hour (kWh) 3.37 11.23 17.96 Average energy useable generated per minute (kWh) 0.06 0.19 0.30 How long to charge daily energy requirements of scenario 1 (mins) 186.28 55.88 34.93 How long to charge daily energy requirements of scenario 2 (mins) 167.30 50.19 31.37 How long to charge daily energy requirements of scenario 3 (mins) 163.18 48.95 30.60 How long to charge daily energy requirements of scenario 4 (mins) 67.87 20.36 12.73

Cashflow impact Since our household survey discovered that “70% would be happy to pay more for an EV charger knowing that it was being supplied by locally generated clean energy”, for the purposes of this analysis, tariff 4 – a blended tariff has been applied to each of these scenarios, for indication only. Further analysis will be undertaken as part of Phase 2 the Detailed Design Phase. Cashflow spreadsheets for these have been included in Appendix V.

47 Urban Foresight As shown in Table 15, when compared with the reference scenario (o% hydro utilisation) it is clear that the greater utilisation of hydro will have a significant impact on the operational and payback opportunities for each of the configuration scenarios, speeding returns on investment by 1-3 years. Any opportunity to increase the integration of the hydro scheme is therefore recommended.

Table 15 comparison of cashflow forecasts using tariff 4 across the hydro utilisation rate scenarios

0% hydro 15% hydro 50% hydro 80% hydro Site utilisation utilisation utilisation utilisation Configuration Scenario O & M payback O & M payback O & M payback O & M payback covered period covered period covered period covered period

1 – 50W & 7kW Yr 4 10 – 11 yrs Yrs 3 – 4 8 – 9 yrs Yrs 3 – 4 8 – 9 yrs Yrs 3 – 4 8 – 9 yrs

2 – 22kW & 7kW Yrs 5 – 6 12 – 13 yrs Yrs 4 – 5 10 – 11 yrs Yrs 4 - 5 9 yrs Yrs 3 - 4 8 – 9 yrs

3 – 22kW Yr 6 12 – 13 yrs Yr 4 9 – 10 yrs Yr 4 8 – 9 yrs Yr 4 8 – 9 yrs

4 – 7kW Yr 5 11 – 12 yrs Yr 5 11 – 12 yrs Yrs 2 - 3 8 – 9 yrs Yrs 2 - 3 8 – 9 yrs

Additional considerations As well as the hydro implementing savings, we have assessed whether the inclusion of a battery would be financially viable.

As shown in Table 16, each of the configuration scenarios follow a similar payback period if a battery is included. At a hydro utilisation rate of 15%, only half of the battery would pay back by 2032. For the 50% scenario this would just pay back around 2031, whilst at 80% this would be as early as 2029.

Table 16 potential battery payback across each scenario using a blended tariff (tariff scenario 4)

Site Configuration 15% hydro utilisation 50% hydro utilisation 80% hydro utilisation Scenario battery payback battery payback battery payback

1 – 50W & 7kW Beyond 2032 Year 12 Year 10 - 11 2 – 22kW & 7kW Beyond 2032 Year 12 - 13 Year 10 - 11 3 – 22kW Beyond 2032 Year 12 - 13 Year 10 - 11 4 – 7kW Battery not included Battery not included Battery not included

This battery payback is generally lengthy through the combination of user demand being relatively low particularly in the early implementation of a scheme. As a result, there is a significant amount of excess hydro that could otherwise remain powering the polytunnel or other local infrastructure.

However, by approximately year 7 (2026), the demand profile and hydro energy input reaches a tipping point whereby there is unlikely to be sufficient useable hydro to meet the energy consumption demands of the chargers, thus resulting in additional electricity

48 Urban Foresight costs from the local grid. At this point, it may therefore be worth considering the integration of the additional 90kW turbine in the system.

Assuming that the new 90kW turbine does not conform to the export regime of the existing charger (e.g. the first 50kW prioritised for export), a significant amount of energy could be useable in support of the chargers. Taking a 15% utilisation rate as an example, the overall system payback period could be more certain in years 8 – 9 and further justification of the battery with a reduction of 1 – 3 years on its payback, with the most impact with a scenario 3 configuration.

Table 17 Addition of new 90kW turbine at a utilisation rate of 50%

Site Configuration Scenario Overall payback Battery payback

1 – 50W & 7kW 8 - 9 years 10 - 11 years

2 – 22kW & 7kW 8 - 9 years 10 - 11 years 3 – 22kW 8 – 9 years 9 - 10 years 4 – 7kW Battery not included Battery not included

8.7 Summary To fully understand the long term financial implications of installing charging infrastructure we have reviewed demand, revenue costs and possible income across a number of scenarios.

We have used current data from local chargers to estimate the current and future usage for each identified site set-up.

We have identified a number of possible tariff options that are in line with other tariffs being introduced across Scotland. These would be on top of fixed back office costs applied by the back office operator.

We have profiled the future usage figures with the various tariffs to give an understanding of when the set up may cover the operational costs and deliver a payback on any investment required.

Finally, we have analysed the impact of the inclusion of hydro on the return on investment as well as reviewing the stand-alone battery costs.

49 Urban Foresight Summary and Pathway to Phase 2 This section identifies the key decisions or processes that have been identified throughout the project to be reviewed before progressing to the Phase 2 detailed design stage, it also summarises the key findings of the feasibility study and suggests some next steps in the process.

9.1 Summary Due to the complex nature of the project and to ensure the most appropriate long-term solution to installing infrastructure is chosen we recommend that ACC take a step by step approach to reaching a final proposal for a Phase 2 detailed design.

Demand Engagement Site Power Operations

Vehicles Stakeholders Location Grid Operation Infrastrcuture Public Setup Hydro Business Model Storage

The key decisions to be made through this process are:

1. Identify a need and demand for infrastructure. 2. Acknowledge support for project from stakeholders and community. 3. Decide on preferred site(s) 4. Decide on preferred setup (short and long term) 5. Decide how to tackle power issues. 6. Review funding options and opportunities.

Configuration Options While all options reviewed are technically possible, due to the commercial challenges with constrained power and the integration of a battery storage solution, ACC are potentially left with 5 main options:

1. Do nothing 2. Install a 7kW standalone charger 3. Install a three-phase connection and support the integration of all elements. 4. Initially install a 7kW charger and consider the opportunity for a three-phase connection as part of future developments. 5. Initially install a 7kW charger and consider an additional market assessment exercise to find a suitable battery solution or work with a battery storage supplier to develop such a solution

50 Urban Foresight Table 18 Potential configuration options for an EV charger site

Options Pros Cons

1. Do Nothing  No further investment  No stimulation of electric vehicle uptake for residents ACC do not proceed with required or the surrounding area installing an EV charger  Potential loss of NC500 visitors 2. Install a 7kW standalone  Cheapest option.  No rapid charging facility charger  No grid upgrade required. in area  Encourage EV uptake.  Potential loss of NC500 visitors.  Minimal utilisation of excess hydro scheme. 3. Install a three-phase  Supports rapid and fast  Most expensive option. connection to support the charging solutions.  Increased O&M costs to integration of all elements  No further upgrades recover. discussed. required.  Supports use of current and future hydro through a battery storage.  Increase of EV uptake and increased visitors.  Future expansion capabilities e.g. additional hardware 4. Initially install a 7kW charger  Cheapest option.  No rapid charging facility and consider the opportunity  Allows for exploration of initially for a three-phase connection as future power solutions with  Potential loss of NC500 part of future developments. housing proposals. visitors.  Minimal utilisation of excess hydro scheme initially.  Possible duplication of costs. 5. Initially install a 7kW charger  Allows for future  Solution may never be and consider an additional technology developments. developed. market assessment exercise to  Avoids 3-phase connection  No rapid charging facility find a suitable battery solution costs. initially or work with a battery storage  Potential loss of NC500 supplier to develop such a visitors. solution  Minimal utilisation of excess hydro scheme initially.  Possible duplication of costs.

Site selection options Following a detailed review of the sites we would recommend that sites G and H are the most suitable options due to the visibility, space available, location to main road and

51 Urban Foresight proximity to proposed commercial units. The site selection has minimal impact on the overall costings for the project.

Site costing Delivering a desirable mix of rapid and fast charging in Applecross that integrates with the hydro scheme is currently likely to cost in the region of £300,000. This is due to current limitations of available battery storage solutions resulting in the requirement for an upgrade to a three-phase supply and a storage solution.

A single 7kw charger could be delivered on the preferred sites for approximately £18,500, but is unlikely to meet long term demand in the area and is unlikely to utilise any of the locally produced hydro energy, to include battery storage would increase costs to approximately £112,000.

9.2 Recommended Actions Following a decision on principle on the questions in 9.1 of this report we would suggest the following actions are undertaken:

 Fully understand the power demand requirements from Housing and Commercial development in the field in front of turbine house.  Complete a full feasibility study with SSE on the various power options.  Complete a more detailed market analysis of hardware to work with 7kW grid connection.  Complete a detailed design and costing of preferred option(s) based on the outputs from SSE and market analysis. Possible short and long term solutions.  Review funding options and allocations for short and long term solutions.

52 Urban Foresight Appendix I – Household Survey Results The full raw survey results for all 50 respondents have been summarised in the table below.

Full Survey Results

Total responses - 52

1. Age

16-24 0 60-74 12 25-34 6 75+ 6 35-44 11 Prefer not to say 4 45-59 13

2. Gender

Female 29 Other 1 Male 19 Prefer not to say 3

3. How many people live in your household?

1 12 4 10 2 20 More than 4 0 3 7 Prefer not to say 3

4. What is your home postcode?

[Open text] 48

5. If applicable, what is/are your work postcode(s)?

[Open text] 17

6. How many vehicles does your household own, lease or have access to?

0 3 3 5 1 24 4 3 2 17 More than 4 0

7. How many of these cars are a Battery Electric Vehicle or Plug-in Hybrid (hereafter, EV)?

0 47 3 0 1 5 4 0 2 0 More than 4 0

53 Urban Foresight EV Owners

8. How did you purchase this/these EV(s)? (select all that apply)

Brand new outright 1 Second-hand 2 Brand new using a lease scheme 2

9. How long have you owned your EV(s) for? (Select all that apply)

Under 1 year 2 3-4 years 0 1-2 years 0 4-5 years 0 2-3 years 2 Over 5 years 1

10. How important were the following factors when you were decided to buy your EV?

 Lower driving costs

0 0 3 2 1 0 4 2 2 0 5 1

 Lower service and maintenance costs

0 0 3 2 1 0 4 2 2 0 5 1

 Environmentally friendly

0 0 3 1 1 0 4 0 2 0 5 4

 Vehicle size, performance, or aesthetics

0 0 3 1 1 0 4 1 2 2 5 1

 Convenience

0 0 3 0 1 0 4 2 2 2 5 1

 Availability of Government grants or incentives

0 0 3 1 1 1 4 1 2 0 5 2

54 Urban Foresight  Free parking

0 0 3 0 1 1 4 1 2 2 5 1

 Free charging

0 0 3 0 1 1 4 1 2 2 5 1

 Affordable Leasing

0 0 3 1 1 2 4 0 2 1 5 1

 Experience of driving / travelling in an EV

0 0 3 1 1 0 4 1 2 1 5 2

11. How often do you use your EV(s)?

Daily 5 1-2 times per month 0 1-2 times per week 0 Less than once a month 0 3-5 times per week 0

12. Which of the following do you use your EV(s) for? (Select ALL that apply)

Commuting to work 4 Leisure and social activities 1 Driving children to school 2 Other 1 Shopping 5

13. And which of these do you most use your EV(s) for? (Select ONE option)

Commuting to work 3 Leisure and social activities 1 Driving children to school 0 Other 0 Shopping 1

14. How far would you say you travel using your EV(s) in an average week?

Under 10 miles 0 120 to 150 miles 1 10 to 20 miles 0 90 to 100 miles 0 20 to 30 miles 0 150 to 180 miles 0 30 to 40 miles 1 180 to 220 miles 0

55 Urban Foresight 40 to 60 miles 0 220 to 250 miles 0 60 to 80 miles 1 250 to 300 miles 0 80 to 100 miles 0 Over 300 miles 1 100 to 120 miles 1

15. How many electric miles have you driven since purchasing your EV(s)?

Under 500 miles 1 5,001-10,000 miles 0 501-1,000 miles 0 Over 10,000 miles 3 1,001-5,000 miles 1

16. Do you think you drive more or fewer miles since buying your EV(s) compared to your previous car(s)?

Significantly fewer 1 Somewhat more 0 Somewhat fewer 0 Significantly more 0 About the same 4 N / A – my EV is my first car 0

17. Overall, how satisfied are you with your EV(s) and its ability to meet your needs?

1 (very unsatisfied) 0 3 2 2 0 4 (very satisfied) 3

18. Where do you primarily charge your vehicle?

At home (off-street) 4 At work 0 At home (on-street) 0 Other 1

19. How often do you charge your vehicle?

Daily 2 1-2 times per month 0 1-2 times per week 2 Rarer 0 3-5 times per week 1

All vehicle Owners

20. Where do you currently park your vehicle(s) when you are at home?

On-street 5 Both 5 Off-street 34 Other 8

21. If you answered yes to "on-street" or "both", what type of parking regime applies to you? (select all that apply)

I hold a residential permit 0 I do not have a designated space / 4 can park anywhere on the street or nearby There is no parking 2 Other 1 I have a designated space 6

All respondents

56 Urban Foresight 22. What do you/your household consider the key barriers to purchasing an electric vehicle? (select all that apply)

Limited range (miles) of the 32 Lack of public charging options 32 vehicles Limited range of vehicle 18 I do not own/need a vehicle 0 options/models Upfront cost 40 I do not have access to off-street 7 parking Unwilling to change existing 0 Other 3 lifestyle I am not ready to switch to a new 13 vehicle

23. Of the barriers you selected, which do you/ your household think is the biggest barrier?

Limited range (miles) of the 15 Lack of public charging options 5 vehicles Limited range of vehicle 3 I do not own/need a vehicle 0 options/models Upfront cost 22 I do not have access to off-street 0 parking Unwilling to change existing 0 Other 4 lifestyle I am not ready to switch to a new 3 vehicle

24. Would you support the installation of a publicly accessible electric vehicle charger in Applecross?

Yes 47 Maybe 5 No 0

25. If you answered "No" to supporting an electric vehicle charger, could you briefly state why you would not support an electric vehicle charger in Applecross?

[open text] 0 N/A 52

26. If a publicly accessible electric vehicle charger in Applecross were supplied by the majority of low carbon/renewable energy generated by the Community Hydro Scheme, would you be more likely to support the installation of an electric vehicle charger in Applecross?

Yes 43 Maybe 8 No 0

27. 1. I would be happy to pay for an EV charger knowing that it was being supplied by locally generated clean energy

0 4 3 6

57 Urban Foresight 1 (strongly disagree) 4 4 14 2 3 5 (strongly agree) 21

28. 2. I would be happy to pay for using an EV charger if the cost worked out the same as a petrol or diesel

0 4 3 6 1 (strongly disagree) 10 4 11 2 6 5 (strongly agree) 15

29. 3. I would be happy to pay for using an EV charger ONLY if the cost was cheaper than petrol or diesel

0 4 3 11 1 (strongly disagree) 11 4 5 2 5 5 (strongly agree) 16

30. 4. I would be happy to pay more for an EV charger knowing that it was being supplied by locally generated clean energy

0 4 3 13 1 (strongly disagree) 7 4 14 2 6 5 (strongly agree) 8

31. 5. I would not pay to use an EV charger

0 4 3 4 1 (strongly disagree) 28 4 2 2 11 5 (strongly agree) 3

32. 6. Access to an EV charger supported by locally generated clean energy will provide me with more confidence when thinking about purchasing an EV

0 3 3 7 1 (strongly disagree) 4 4 13 2 3 5 (strongly agree) 22

33. To what extent do you agree that a low carbon community car club/car sharing scheme would be beneficial to the Applecross community?

0 4 3 9 1 (strongly disagree) 4 4 13 2 3 5 (strongly agree) 19

34. How likely would you or your household make use of a low carbon community car club scheme if it were available?

0 4 3 9 1 (Highly unlikely) 19 4 6 2 8 5 (Highly likely) 6

58 Urban Foresight 35. Do you have any other comments, or concerns about electric vehicles, in general or in relation to the local area?

I would hope that there will be more charging points to allow joined up journeys around the peninsula and beyond. There would need to be thought given to access for tourists/visitors and potential priority for residents. Lack of charging infrastructure throughout Scotland currently deters us from considering purchase of EV. I would be interested in EV van options to hire on an occasional basis EV charging infrastructure is very needed in the Highlands. It's important for residents and also to encourage low carbon travel in general, especially with tourists on the NC500. Great idea, hydrogen powered cars? Great for tourists to know we have an EV charger. And when elec vehicles drop in price and can do more miles I'd be delighted to use it too. :) I think an electric car scheme would be very beneficial and should be considered further as a means to reduce traffic on the peninsula. 27-31 answers influenced by expectation that if I had an EV I would charge it at home I would be concerned that tourists would monopolise a charger. The electric charging point must be placed in an area where there is something to do whilst the vehicle is being charged as this could take a number of hours. It must be "policed" that people move their vehicle when it is charged so that the charging point is released for others to use. Why do you need public chargers when the vehicles can be charged from any 13 amp socket inside or external electrical sockets. A charging point in Applecross is only of use to people in the immediate vicinity, or, if a fast-charger, to people passing through. Otherwise an unacceptable proportion of the charge would be used travelling to and from the charger - in my case 26 miles. Waiting for hydrogen technology. There would be insufficient capacity for electric cars in Applecross having one charger basic needs Tornapress/top of Bealach/Shore St/Culduie/Ard Dhubh and Toscaig. Seems like a great idea but we are probably too far away to use it as a regular charging spot. Fast charge important. Location - links to local establishments whilst they wait. / Link up with What with one thing and another, the car has been doing less miles and should last a while longer before we get our next one. I really would like it to be a EV. One concern, especially on a windy day, electric vehicles cannot be heard. Here locally there is sometimes a need to walk on the road, which could make it hazardous. (No response to survey, just a comment): What an unfounded suggestion. (No response to survey, just a comment): Hello, I'm concerned about the environmental impact of lithium mining, so am abstaining from filling out this form whilst I think more about it all. Thanks. (No response to survey, just a comment): They may be handy around Applecross, but generally best for cities and towns. Applecross has very low carbon imprint anyway. Money best used otherwise.

59 Urban Foresight Appendix II – Factfiles Individual “factfiles” of the shortlisted sites, options A, C, E, G and H have been included in the following pages overleaf. Each Factfile contains high-level information of each site option, including a summary of their qualitative assessments, cost estimate for each charger configuration scenario, along with relevant commentary.

60 Urban Foresight Option A

Distance from Distance from Additional Overall site Land ownership Passive visibility Scalability Assessment hydro main road works impression

ACC (TBC) Medium 75m <5m Medium Medium Medium • 300#,2
0#
Ĺ7#**-5ĺ
'1
,-2
13

Footprint Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Requirements        

Site Location High-level Cost

Scenario 1 2 3 4

Connection Costs + Works £11,000 £11,000 £7,500 £4,000

Charging Equipment Costs £23,500 £19,000 £15,500 £3,500

Battery Storage Costs £93,500 £93,500 £93,500 £0

Civil Works £16,500 £16,500 £11,500 £5,000

Contingency (5%) £7,000 £7,000 £6,000 £0

Design and Planning (5%) £7,000 £7,000 £6,000 £0

Total High-Level Cost £158,500 £154,000 £140,000 £12,500

61 Urban Foresight Option C

Passive Distance from Distance from Additional Overall site Land ownership Scalability Assessment visibility hydro main road works impression

ACC Medium <5m 80m Medium Poor Medium • Ideally located next to turbine house, but current area unlikely to be suitable for routine/essential maintenance work vans and operation. Comments However, it may be possible to expand the site/a work access road? Although cost of works will increase • Potentially less visible for drivers along the main road. áÛĵºāñ“üÂáÛȧMîüÂáÛ Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Footprint Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Requirements x x x x  x  x

Site Location High-level Cost

Scenario 1 2 3 4

Connection Costs + Works £7,500 £7,500 £7,500 £4,000

Charging Equipment Costs £24,000 £19,000 £15,500 £3,500

Battery Storage Costs £93,500 £93,500 £93,500 £0

Civil Works £11,500 £11,500 £11,000 £11,000

Contingency (5%) £7,000 £6,500 £6,500 £0

Design and Planning (5%) £7,000 £6,500 £6,500 £0

Total High-Level Cost £150,500 £144,500 £140,500 £18,500

62 Urban Foresight Option E

Land Passive Distance from Distance from Additional Overall site Scalability Assessment ownership visibility hydro main road works impression

ACC (TBC) Good 90m <5m High Medium Medium • Likely to be suitable space to support additional infrastructure in the future Comments • Will require new access route / removal of dry-stone wall • Will require more development works than other options áÛĵºāñ“üÂáÛȧMîüÂáÛ Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Footprint Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Requirements        

Site Location High-level Cost

Scenario 1 2 3 4

Connection Costs + Works £7,500 £7,500 £7,000 £4,000

Charging Equipment Costs £24,000 £19,000 £15,500 £3,500

Battery Storage Costs £93,500 £93,500 £93,500 £0

Civil Works £14,500 £14,500 £8,500 £6,000

Contingency (5%) £7,000 £6,500 £6,000 £0

Design and Planning (5%) £7,000 £6,500 £6,000 £0

Total High-Level Cost £153,500 £147,500 £136,500 £13,500

63 Urban Foresight Option G

Passive Distance from Distance from Additional Overall site Land ownership Scalability Assessment visibility hydro main road works impression

ACC (TBC) Good 115m <5m Medium Low Good • Likely to be suitable space to support additional infrastructure in the future Comments • New access route planned as part of ACC property development works/ Site is located on ACC’s proposed property development land • ! * '*'27
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1!&#+# áÛĵºāñ“üÂáÛȧMîüÂáÛ Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Footprint Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Requirements        

Site Location High-level Cost

Scenario 1 2 3 4

Connection Costs + Works £7,500 £7,500 £7,000 £4,000

Charging Equipment Costs £24,000 £19,000 £15,500 £3,500

Battery Storage Costs £93,500 £93,500 £93,500 £0

Civil Works £15,500 £15,500 £10,500 £8,000

Contingency (5%) £7,000 £7,000 £6,500 £0

Design and Planning (5%) £7,000 £7,000 £6,500 £0

Total High-Level Cost £154,500 £149,500 £139,500 £15,500

64 Urban Foresight Option H

Passive Distance from Distance from Additional Overall site Land ownership Scalability Assessment visibility hydro main road works impression

Applecross Trust Good 135m <5m Low Medium Good • Likely to be the most visible site from main through road to the beach. Comments • Owned by The Applecross Trust, but potentially okay with change in land use. • #* 2'4#*7
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Footprint Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Requirements        

Site Location High-level Cost

Scenario 1 2 3 4

Connection Costs + Works £7,500 £7,500 £7,500 £4,000

Charging Equipment Costs £24,000 £19,000 £15,500 £3,500

Battery Storage Costs £93,500 £93,500 £93,500 £0

Civil Works £18,500 £18,500 £14,500 £11,000

Contingency (5%) £7,000 £7,000 £6,500 £0

Design and Planning (5%) £7,000 £7,000 £6,500 £0

Total High-Level Cost £157,500 £152,500 £144,000 £18,500

65 Urban Foresight Appendix III – Costing Hardware costs Pricing for charging equipment will vary significantly, depending on the power requirements of the charger site makeup, and the chargepoint supplier selected for the equipment. It is therefore crucial to select the type of charging that would be most suitable for each location and scenario, considering the dwell time for each vehicle type, the distance travelled between each charger and the type of activities at the location.

Table 19 provides an overview of the range of pricing for each of the common types of charging equipment for public facilities.

Table 19 Component costs for EV charging hardware

Type Dual-outlet ground-mounted Assumed cost for this study unit cost

7kW (Fast) £1,700-£5,000 £2,8004 22kW AC (Fast) £3,000-£5,000 £3,150 (not used) 22kW DC (semi-rapid) £15,000-£16,000 £16,000 43kW-50kW (rapid) £16,000-£30,0005 £19,000

Installation costs In addition to capital costs, the installation costs vary considerably depending on the site, hardware, and the ownership model. Detailed surveys are required to provide accurate quotes.

The DNO connection cost is one of the largest and most variable costs to consider, as this is very site specific and will vary depending on the distance from the nearest and available local supply. For instance, a low capacity installation, up to 70kVA, would typically cost around £3,000. A medium capacity installation, between 70 and 1,000 kVA, may incur costs in the region of £75,000. A high capacity installation, above 1,000 kVA could incur costs between £60,000 - £2 million.6

Due to the intricacies of the cabling work, it is possible for upgrades to take at least six months or more and be very costly, so it is vital to engage with the DNO as early as possible to agree a timescale and secure funding.

4 Costs assumed by Urban Foresight for this study are those taken from real-life examples of installations with chargepoint suppliers, in similar scenarios to this study. It must be noted that prices change frequently, and may be lower or higher than the prices quoted. 5 This is for a triple outlet rapid charging including 1 x Type 2 + 1 x JEVS G105 + 1 x CCS Combo 2 Connectors 6 UK Power Networks (2019) Getting electric vehicles moving

66 Urban Foresight As part of this study, the DNO, SSE was engaged throughout the process to understand the interdependencies of a complex integration of chargers in a grid constrained area, and understand the likely high-level costs for the various options for connectivity. These costs have been provided in relevant sections and were verbally communicated to help inform the likely indicative figures for these connections in shortlisting options in this Phase.

In Phase 2, ACC could consider arranging a formal feasibility study for a few hundred pounds which will provide realistic estimate costs on the recommended options in this report. A feasibility study can take up to 3 months depending on the level of options considered. Costing Assessments Site charger configurations were based on the above scenarios and analysis of existing site layouts and comments from ACC, Swarco and SSE. The cost estimates presented include estimates of installation costs, including likely siteworks required as well as the cost of charger units, and battery units.

Chargepoint configuration scenarios will have different costing assessments dependent on the configuration chosen and are dependent on the site chosen. Table 20 below shows high-level rounded costs for each of the chargepoint scenarios identified and if they are fixed across each site or site dependent costs.

Table 20 Likely fixed costs of equipment for each chargepoint configuration scenario

Site Price Configuration Connection Costs Equipment Costs Equipment Costs - Civils and +Works (Chargers) (Battery Storage) Electricals

£10,000 - Scenario 1 £11,000 £35,000 £93,500 £40,000 £10,000 - Scenario 2 £9,000 £30,000 £93,500 £40,000 £10,000 - Scenario 3 £7,500 £24,500 £93,500 £40,000 £10,000 - Scenario 4 £6,000 £5,500 £93,500 £40,000 Site dependent cost ✕ ✕ ✕ ✓

67 Urban Foresight Appendix IV – Cashflows without hydro The following pages present an overview of the cashflow for each of the 4 tariff scenarios presented in section 8.5.

68 Urban Foresight h“ñÂIJȧa¤®Û“ñÂáȧśȧȓ Gáȧü“ñÂIJȧ“îîÔ®ª Applecross SITE: Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current Electricity consumed 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £785 £1,174 £1,737 £2,572 £3,879 £6,001 £8,754 £12,709 £18,513 £26,909 £40,915 £60,927 £89,741 Electricity Costs S-Curve £734 £1,002 £1,404 £2,184 £3,933 £7,943 £14,709 £24,233 £35,456 £47,168 £61,571 £75,266 £88,229

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Current Net profit on charging -£785 -£1,174 -£1,737 -£2,572 -£3,879 -£6,001 -£8,754 -£12,709 -£18,513 -£26,909 -£40,915 -£60,927 -£89,741 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve -£734 -£1,002 -£1,404 -£2,184 -£3,933 -£7,943 -£14,709 -£24,233 -£35,456 -£47,168 -£61,571 -£75,266 -£88,229

Current Yearly back office and £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£4,435 -£4,824 -£5,387 -£6,222 -£7,529 -£9,651 -£12,404 -£16,359 -£22,163 -£30,559 -£44,565 -£64,577 -£93,391 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£4,384 -£4,652 -£5,054 -£5,834 -£7,583 -£11,593 -£18,359 -£27,883 -£39,106 -£50,818 -£65,221 -£78,916 -£91,879

Net Cash flow including Current -£59,335.47 -£64,160 -£69,546 -£75,769 -£83,298 -£92,949 -£105,353 -£121,712 -£143,874 -£174,433 -£218,998 -£283,576 -£376,967 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£59,284.36 -£63,936 -£68,990 -£74,824 -£82,407 -£94,000 -£112,359 -£140,242 -£179,348 -£230,166 -£295,386 -£374,302 -£466,181

69 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current Electricity consumed 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 (8.55 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £705 £1,055 £1,560 £2,310 £3,484 £5,390 £7,862 £11,414 £16,626 £24,167 £36,746 £54,719 £80,597 Electricity Costs S-Curve £660 £900 £1,261 £1,961 £3,532 £7,133 £13,210 £21,764 £31,843 £42,362 £55,297 £67,597 £79,239

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Current Net profit on charging -£705 -£1,055 -£1,560 -£2,310 -£3,484 -£5,390 -£7,862 -£11,414 -£16,626 -£24,167 -£36,746 -£54,719 -£80,597 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve -£660 -£900 -£1,261 -£1,961 -£3,532 -£7,133 -£13,210 -£21,764 -£31,843 -£42,362 -£55,297 -£67,597 -£79,239

Current Yearly back office and £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly Current -£4,155 -£4,505 -£5,010 -£5,760 -£6,934 -£8,840 -£11,312 -£14,864 -£20,076 -£27,617 -£40,196 -£58,169 -£84,047 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve -£4,110 -£4,350 -£4,711 -£5,411 -£6,982 -£10,583 -£16,660 -£25,214 -£35,293 -£45,812 -£58,747 -£71,047 -£82,689

Net Cash flow including Current -£53,755.44 -£58,260 -£63,270 -£69,030 -£75,964 -£84,804 -£96,115 -£110,979 -£131,056 -£158,673 -£198,869 -£257,039 -£341,086 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£53,709.54 -£58,059 -£62,770 -£68,182 -£75,164 -£85,747 -£102,408 -£127,622 -£162,915 -£208,727 -£267,474 -£338,520 -£421,209

70 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current Electricity consumed 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £688 £1,029 £1,521 £2,253 £3,398 £5,257 £7,668 £11,133 £16,217 £23,572 £35,842 £53,373 £78,614 Electricity Costs S-Curve £643 £877 £1,230 £1,913 £3,445 £6,958 £12,885 £21,229 £31,060 £41,320 £53,936 £65,933 £77,289

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Current Net profit on charging -£688 -£1,029 -£1,521 -£2,253 -£3,398 -£5,257 -£7,668 -£11,133 -£16,217 -£23,572 -£35,842 -£53,373 -£78,614 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve -£643 -£877 -£1,230 -£1,913 -£3,445 -£6,958 -£12,885 -£21,229 -£31,060 -£41,320 -£53,936 -£65,933 -£77,289

Current Yearly back office and £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£3,538 -£3,879 -£4,371 -£5,103 -£6,248 -£8,107 -£10,518 -£13,983 -£19,067 -£26,422 -£38,692 -£56,223 -£81,464 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£3,493 -£3,727 -£4,080 -£4,763 -£6,295 -£9,808 -£15,735 -£24,079 -£33,910 -£44,170 -£56,786 -£68,783 -£80,139

Net Cash flow including Current -£43,638.08 -£47,517 -£51,888 -£56,992 -£63,240 -£71,347 -£81,865 -£95,848 -£114,916 -£141,338 -£180,030 -£236,253 -£317,717 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£43,593.31 -£47,321 -£51,401 -£56,164 -£62,459 -£72,267 -£88,002 -£112,081 -£145,991 -£190,160 -£246,947 -£315,730 -£395,869

71 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 Electricity consumed (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £286 £428 £633 £937 £1,413 £2,187 £3,189 £4,630 £6,745 £9,804 £14,907 £22,198 £32,696 Electricity Costs S-Curve £268 £365 £512 £796 £1,433 £2,894 £5,359 £8,829 £12,918 £17,185 £22,433 £27,422 £32,145

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Current -£286 -£428 -£633 -£937 -£1,413 -£2,187 -£3,189 -£4,630 -£6,745 -£9,804 -£14,907 -£22,198 -£32,696 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve -£268 -£365 -£512 -£796 -£1,433 -£2,894 -£5,359 -£8,829 -£12,918 -£17,185 -£22,433 -£27,422 -£32,145

Current Yearly back office and £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£886 -£1,028 -£1,233 -£1,537 -£2,013 -£2,787 -£3,789 -£5,230 -£7,345 -£10,404 -£15,507 -£22,798 -£33,296 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£868 -£965 -£1,112 -£1,396 -£2,033 -£3,494 -£5,959 -£9,429 -£13,518 -£17,785 -£23,033 -£28,022 -£32,745

Net Cash flow including Current -£35,286.18 -£36,314 -£37,547 -£39,084 -£41,097 -£43,884 -£47,673 -£52,903 -£60,248 -£70,652 -£86,159 -£108,957 -£142,254 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£35,267.56 -£36,233 -£37,344 -£38,740 -£40,773 -£44,267 -£50,226 -£59,655 -£73,173 -£90,958 -£113,990 -£142,013 -£174,758

72 Urban Foresight h“ñÂIJȧa¤®Û“ñÂáȧŜȧ- p/kWh 15% above domestic electricity prices Applecross SITE: Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current Electricity consumed 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.22 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £785 £1,174 £1,737 £2,572 £3,879 £6,001 £8,754 £12,709 £18,513 £26,909 £40,915 £60,927 £89,741 Electricity Costs S-Curve £734 £1,002 £1,404 £2,184 £3,933 £7,943 £14,709 £24,233 £35,456 £47,168 £61,571 £75,266 £88,229

Current £1,318 £1,935 £2,780 £4,121 £6,100 £9,345 £13,542 £19,684 £29,347 £42,092 £63,954 £96,505 £143,201 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,232 £1,650 £2,248 £3,498 £6,185 £12,368 £22,755 £37,535 £56,206 £73,782 £96,240 £119,216 £140,787

Current Net profit on charging £532 £760 £1,044 £1,548 £2,221 £3,344 £4,788 £6,976 £10,834 £15,183 £23,038 £35,577 £53,459 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £498 £648 £844 £1,315 £2,252 £4,425 £8,045 £13,301 £20,750 £26,614 £34,669 £43,950 £52,558

Current Yearly back office and £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£3,118 -£2,890 -£2,606 -£2,102 -£1,429 -£306 £1,138 £3,326 £7,184 £11,533 £19,388 £31,927 £49,809 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£3,152 -£3,002 -£2,806 -£2,335 -£1,398 £775 £4,395 £9,651 £17,100 £22,964 £31,019 £40,300 £48,908

Net Cash flow including Current -£58,017.57 -£60,907 -£63,514 -£65,615 -£67,045 -£67,351 -£66,213 -£62,888 -£55,703 -£44,170 -£24,782 £7,145 £56,955 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£58,052.21 -£61,054 -£63,860 -£66,195 -£67,594 -£66,819 -£62,423 -£52,772 -£35,672 -£12,709 £18,310 £58,610 £107,519

73 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current Electricity consumed 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 (8.55 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.22 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £705 £1,055 £1,560 £2,310 £3,484 £5,390 £7,862 £11,414 £16,626 £24,167 £36,746 £54,719 £80,597 Electricity Costs S-Curve £660 £900 £1,261 £1,961 £3,532 £7,133 £13,210 £21,764 £31,843 £42,362 £55,297 £67,597 £79,239

Current £1,184 £1,737 £2,497 £3,701 £5,478 £8,393 £12,162 £17,679 £26,357 £37,803 £57,437 £86,672 £128,610 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,107 £1,482 £2,019 £3,142 £5,554 £11,107 £20,436 £33,710 £50,479 £66,264 £86,434 £107,068 £126,442

Current Net profit on charging £478 £683 £937 £1,391 £1,994 £3,003 £4,300 £6,265 £9,730 £13,636 £20,691 £31,952 £48,012 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £447 £582 £758 £1,181 £2,022 £3,974 £7,226 £11,946 £18,636 £23,902 £31,136 £39,472 £47,203

Current Yearly back office and £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly Current -£2,972 -£2,767 -£2,513 -£2,059 -£1,456 -£447 £850 £2,815 £6,280 £10,186 £17,241 £28,502 £44,562 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve -£3,003 -£2,868 -£2,692 -£2,269 -£1,428 £524 £3,776 £8,496 £15,186 £20,452 £27,686 £36,022 £43,753

Net Cash flow including Current -£52,571.82 -£55,339 -£57,852 -£59,911 -£61,367 -£61,814 -£60,964 -£58,149 -£51,869 -£41,683 -£24,442 £4,061 £48,623 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£52,602.93 -£55,471 -£58,163 -£60,432 -£61,860 -£61,336 -£57,560 -£49,064 -£33,879 -£13,427 £14,260 £50,282 £94,035

74 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current Electricity consumed 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.22 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £688 £1,029 £1,521 £2,253 £3,398 £5,257 £7,668 £11,133 £16,217 £23,572 £35,842 £53,373 £78,614 Electricity Costs S-Curve £643 £877 £1,230 £1,913 £3,445 £6,958 £12,885 £21,229 £31,060 £41,320 £53,936 £65,933 £77,289

Current £1,154 £1,695 £2,436 £3,610 £5,343 £8,186 £11,863 £17,244 £25,708 £36,873 £56,024 £84,539 £125,445 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,079 £1,445 £1,969 £3,065 £5,418 £10,834 £19,933 £32,881 £49,237 £64,633 £84,307 £104,434 £123,331

Current Net profit on charging £466 £666 £914 £1,356 £1,945 £2,929 £4,194 £6,111 £9,491 £13,300 £20,182 £31,166 £46,831 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £436 £568 £739 £1,152 £1,972 £3,876 £7,048 £11,652 £18,177 £23,314 £30,370 £38,501 £46,042

Current Yearly back office and £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£2,384 -£2,184 -£1,936 -£1,494 -£905 £79 £1,344 £3,261 £6,641 £10,450 £17,332 £28,316 £43,981 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,414 -£2,282 -£2,111 -£1,698 -£878 £1,026 £4,198 £8,802 £15,327 £20,464 £27,520 £35,651 £43,192

Net Cash flow including Current -£42,483.58 -£44,668 -£46,603 -£48,097 -£49,002 -£48,923 -£47,578 -£44,318 -£37,677 -£27,226 -£9,895 £18,422 £62,403 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£42,513.93 -£44,796 -£46,907 -£48,605 -£49,483 -£48,456 -£44,259 -£35,457 -£20,129 £334 £27,855 £63,505 £106,697

75 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current Electricity consumed 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 £0.23 £0.23 £0.23 £0.22 £0.23 £0.23 £0.24 Connection Fee £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Current £286 £428 £633 £937 £1,413 £2,187 £3,189 £4,630 £6,745 £9,804 £14,907 £22,198 £32,696 Electricity Costs S-Curve £268 £365 £512 £796 £1,433 £2,894 £5,359 £8,829 £12,918 £17,185 £22,433 £27,422 £32,145

Current £480 £705 £1,013 £1,501 £2,222 £3,405 £4,934 £7,172 £10,692 £15,336 £23,301 £35,160 £52,174 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £449 £601 £819 £1,275 £2,253 £4,506 £8,290 £13,675 £20,478 £26,881 £35,064 £43,435 £51,294

Current Net profit on charging £194 £277 £380 £564 £809 £1,218 £1,744 £2,541 £3,947 £5,532 £8,394 £12,962 £19,477 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £181 £236 £307 £479 £820 £1,612 £2,931 £4,846 £7,560 £9,696 £12,631 £16,013 £19,149

Current Yearly back office and £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£406 -£323 -£220 -£36 £209 £618 £1,144 £1,941 £3,347 £4,932 £7,794 £12,362 £18,877 maintenance costs S-Curve -£419 -£364 -£293 -£121 £220 £1,012 £2,331 £4,246 £6,960 £9,096 £12,031 £15,413 £18,549 (assumes capital funded)

Net Cash flow including Current -£34,806.01 -£35,129 -£35,349 -£35,385 -£35,176 -£34,557 -£33,413 -£31,472 -£28,124 -£23,192 -£15,399 -£3,036 £15,841 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£34,818.64 -£35,182 -£35,475 -£35,596 -£35,376 -£34,363 -£32,032 -£27,786 -£20,826 -£11,730 £302 £15,714 £34,263

76 Urban Foresight h“ñÂIJȧa¤®Û“ñÂáȧŝȧȔ 38p ¤áÛÛ®¤üÂáÛȧ¹®®ȧ“Ûªȧ“ȧŜşîǪÒz¿ȧü“ñÂIJ Applecross SITE: Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current Electricity consumed 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £785 £1,174 £1,737 £2,572 £3,879 £6,001 £8,754 £12,709 £18,513 £26,909 £40,915 £60,927 £89,741 Electricity Costs S-Curve £734 £1,002 £1,404 £2,184 £3,933 £7,943 £14,709 £24,233 £35,456 £47,168 £61,571 £75,266 £88,229

Current £1,561 £2,306 £3,406 £5,031 £7,432 £10,978 £16,215 £23,952 £35,380 £52,261 £77,196 £114,028 £168,433 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,460 £1,967 £2,754 £4,271 £7,535 £14,528 £27,248 £45,672 £67,760 £91,607 £116,167 £140,862 £165,594

Current Net profit on charging £776 £1,132 £1,670 £2,459 £3,553 £4,976 £7,462 £11,243 £16,867 £25,352 £36,281 £53,100 £78,692 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £725 £965 £1,350 £2,087 £3,602 £6,586 £12,538 £21,439 £32,305 £44,439 £54,596 £65,596 £77,365

Current Yearly back office and £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£2,874 -£2,518 -£1,980 -£1,191 -£97 £1,326 £3,812 £7,593 £13,217 £21,702 £32,631 £49,450 £75,042 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,925 -£2,685 -£2,300 -£1,563 -£48 £2,936 £8,888 £17,789 £28,655 £40,789 £50,946 £61,946 £73,715

Net Cash flow including Current -£57,774 -£60,293 -£62,273 -£63,464 -£63,562 -£62,235 -£58,424 -£50,830 -£37,613 -£15,911 £16,720 £66,170 £141,212 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£57,825 -£60,510 -£62,810 -£64,372 -£64,420 -£61,484 -£52,596 -£34,807 -£6,152 £34,637 £85,583 £147,529 £221,245

77 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current Electricity consumed 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 (8.15 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £705 £1,055 £1,560 £2,310 £3,484 £5,390 £7,862 £11,414 £16,626 £24,167 £36,746 £54,719 £80,597 Electricity Costs S-Curve £660 £900 £1,261 £1,961 £3,532 £7,133 £13,210 £21,764 £31,843 £42,362 £55,297 £67,597 £79,239

Current £1,491 £2,202 £3,253 £4,805 £7,098 £10,485 £15,488 £22,877 £33,792 £49,916 £73,731 £108,910 £160,874 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,394 £1,879 £2,631 £4,080 £7,197 £13,876 £26,025 £43,623 £64,719 £87,496 £110,954 £134,540 £158,162

Current Net profit on charging £786 £1,148 £1,694 £2,495 £3,615 £5,095 £7,626 £11,463 £17,166 £25,748 £36,985 £54,191 £80,277 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £734 £979 £1,369 £2,118 £3,665 £6,743 £12,814 £21,858 £32,876 £45,134 £55,657 £66,944 £78,924

Current Yearly back office and £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£2,664 -£2,302 -£1,756 -£955 £165 £1,645 £4,176 £8,013 £13,716 £22,298 £33,535 £50,741 £76,827 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,716 -£2,471 -£2,081 -£1,332 £215 £3,293 £9,364 £18,408 £29,426 £41,684 £52,207 £63,494 £75,474

Net Cash flow including Current -£52,264 -£54,567 -£56,323 -£57,278 -£57,113 -£55,468 -£51,292 -£43,279 -£29,563 -£7,264 £26,271 £77,012 £153,838 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£52,316 -£54,787 -£56,867 -£58,199 -£57,984 -£54,691 -£45,326 -£26,918 £2,508 £44,192 £96,399 £159,892 £235,366

78 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current Electricity consumed 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £688 £1,029 £1,521 £2,253 £3,398 £5,257 £7,668 £11,133 £16,217 £23,572 £35,842 £53,373 £78,614 Electricity Costs S-Curve £643 £877 £1,230 £1,913 £3,445 £6,958 £12,885 £21,229 £31,060 £41,320 £53,936 £65,933 £77,289

Current £1,442 £2,130 £3,146 £4,646 £6,863 £10,138 £14,975 £22,120 £32,674 £48,263 £71,291 £105,305 £155,548 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,348 £1,816 £2,543 £3,945 £6,959 £13,417 £25,163 £42,179 £62,577 £84,599 £107,281 £130,087 £152,927

Current Net profit on charging £754 £1,101 £1,624 £2,393 £3,465 £4,881 £7,307 £10,987 £16,456 £24,691 £35,449 £51,932 £76,934 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £705 £939 £1,313 £2,032 £3,514 £6,459 £12,278 £20,950 £31,517 £43,280 £53,344 £64,153 £75,638

Current Yearly back office and £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£2,096 -£1,749 -£1,226 -£457 £615 £2,031 £4,457 £8,137 £13,606 £21,841 £32,599 £49,082 £74,084 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,145 -£1,911 -£1,537 -£818 £664 £3,609 £9,428 £18,100 £28,667 £40,430 £50,494 £61,303 £72,788

Net Cash flow including Current -£42,196 -£43,946 -£45,171 -£45,628 -£45,013 -£42,982 -£38,526 -£30,389 -£16,782 £5,058 £37,657 £86,739 £160,823 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£42,245 -£44,157 -£45,693 -£46,512 -£45,848 -£42,239 -£32,811 -£14,711 £13,956 £54,386 £104,880 £166,183 £238,971

79 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current Electricity consumed 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 £0.25 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £286 £428 £633 £937 £1,413 £2,187 £3,189 £4,630 £6,745 £9,804 £14,907 £22,198 £32,696 Electricity Costs S-Curve £268 £365 £512 £796 £1,433 £2,894 £5,359 £8,829 £12,918 £17,185 £22,433 £27,422 £32,145

Current £616 £910 £1,344 £1,985 £2,932 £4,332 £6,398 £9,451 £13,960 £20,621 £30,460 £44,993 £66,461 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £576 £776 £1,087 £1,685 £2,973 £5,733 £10,751 £18,021 £26,737 £36,146 £45,837 £55,582 £65,340

Current Net profit on charging £330 £482 £711 £1,048 £1,519 £2,145 £3,209 £4,821 £7,215 £10,817 £15,553 £22,795 £33,764 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £308 £411 £575 £890 £1,540 £2,839 £5,392 £9,192 £13,819 £18,961 £23,405 £28,159 £33,195

Current Yearly back office and £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£270 -£118 £111 £448 £919 £1,545 £2,609 £4,221 £6,615 £10,217 £14,953 £22,195 £33,164 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£292 -£189 -£25 £290 £940 £2,239 £4,792 £8,592 £13,219 £18,361 £22,805 £27,559 £32,595

Net Cash flow including Current -£34,670 -£34,788 -£34,677 -£34,229 -£33,310 -£31,765 -£29,156 -£24,935 -£18,319 -£8,102 £6,851 £29,046 £62,211 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£34,692 -£34,881 -£34,905 -£34,616 -£33,675 -£31,436 -£26,644 -£18,052 -£4,833 £13,529 £36,334 £63,893 £96,488

80 Urban Foresight h“ñÂIJȧa¤®Û“ñÂáȧŞȧȓ ŝŢîȧ¤áÛÛ®¤üÂáÛȧ¹®®ȧ“Ûªȧ“ȧ£Ô®Ûª®ªȧîǪÒz¿ȧü“ñÂIJ Applecross SITE: Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current Electricity consumed 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee 50kW (p/kWh) £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £785 £1,174 £1,737 £2,572 £3,879 £6,001 £8,754 £12,709 £18,513 £26,909 £40,915 £60,927 £89,741 Electricity Costs S-Curve £734 £1,002 £1,404 £2,184 £3,933 £7,943 £14,709 £24,233 £35,456 £47,168 £61,571 £75,266 £88,229

Current £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £41,298 £61,002 £90,107 £133,099 £196,604 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,805 £53,311 £79,093 £106,928 £135,596 £164,422 £193,290

Current Net profit on charging £1,037 £1,517 £2,239 £3,300 £4,796 £6,812 £10,174 £15,249 £22,785 £34,093 £49,192 £72,172 £106,863 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £969 £1,294 £1,811 £2,802 £4,863 £9,016 £17,096 £29,078 £43,638 £59,761 £74,026 £89,156 £105,062

Current Yearly back office and £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly back Current office and maintenance -£2,613 -£2,133 -£1,411 -£350 £1,146 £3,162 £6,524 £11,599 £19,135 £30,443 £45,542 £68,522 £103,213 costs (assumes capital S-Curve funded) -£2,681 -£2,356 -£1,839 -£848 £1,213 £5,366 £13,446 £25,428 £39,988 £56,111 £70,376 £85,506 £101,412

Current Net Cash flow including -£57,513 -£59,646 -£61,057 -£61,406 -£60,261 -£57,098 -£50,574 -£38,975 -£19,840 £10,603 £56,145 £124,666 £227,879 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£57,581 -£59,937 -£61,776 -£62,624 -£61,411 -£56,046 -£42,600 -£17,172 £22,815 £78,926 £149,302 £234,808 £336,219

81 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current Electricity consumed (8.15 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee 22kW (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £705 £1,055 £1,560 £2,310 £3,484 £5,390 £7,862 £11,414 £16,626 £24,167 £36,746 £54,719 £80,597 Electricity Costs S-Curve £660 £900 £1,261 £1,961 £3,532 £7,133 £13,210 £21,764 £31,843 £42,362 £55,297 £67,597 £79,239

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £27,799 £41,062 £60,653 £89,592 £132,339 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £35,885 £53,240 £71,976 £91,273 £110,676 £130,109

Current £521 £757 £1,117 £1,643 £2,355 £3,235 £4,879 £7,405 £11,172 £16,895 £23,907 £34,873 £51,742 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £487 £646 £903 £1,395 £2,388 £4,282 £8,198 £14,121 £21,397 £29,614 £35,976 £43,080 £50,870

Current Yearly back office and £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly back Current office and maintenance -£2,929 -£2,693 -£2,333 -£1,807 -£1,095 -£215 £1,429 £3,955 £7,722 £13,445 £20,457 £31,423 £48,292 costs (assumes capital S-Curve funded) -£2,963 -£2,804 -£2,547 -£2,055 -£1,062 £832 £4,748 £10,671 £17,947 £26,164 £32,526 £39,630 £47,420

Current Net Cash flow including -£52,529 -£55,222 -£57,555 -£59,362 -£60,457 -£60,672 -£59,243 -£55,287 -£47,565 -£34,120 -£13,663 £17,760 £66,051 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£52,563 -£55,367 -£57,914 -£59,970 -£61,031 -£60,199 -£55,451 -£44,780 -£26,834 -£669 £31,857 £71,487 £118,906

82 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current Electricity consumed (9.07 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £688 £1,029 £1,521 £2,253 £3,398 £5,257 £7,668 £11,133 £16,217 £23,572 £35,842 £53,373 £78,614 Electricity Costs S-Curve £643 £877 £1,230 £1,913 £3,445 £6,958 £12,885 £21,229 £31,060 £41,320 £53,936 £65,933 £77,289

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £27,077 £39,996 £59,079 £87,267 £128,904 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £34,954 £51,858 £70,108 £88,904 £107,804 £126,731

Current Net profit on charging £507 £736 £1,086 £1,597 £2,290 £3,144 £4,742 £7,198 £10,860 £16,424 £23,237 £33,894 £50,290 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £474 £628 £878 £1,356 £2,322 £4,161 £7,968 £13,725 £20,798 £28,788 £34,968 £41,870 £49,442

Current Yearly back office and £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly back Current office and maintenance -£2,343 -£2,114 -£1,764 -£1,253 -£560 £294 £1,892 £4,348 £8,010 £13,574 £20,387 £31,044 £47,440 costs (assumes capital S-Curve funded) -£2,376 -£2,222 -£1,972 -£1,494 -£528 £1,311 £5,118 £10,875 £17,948 £25,938 £32,118 £39,020 £46,592

Current Net Cash flow including -£42,443 -£44,557 -£46,322 -£47,575 -£48,135 -£47,841 -£45,949 -£41,602 -£33,592 -£20,019 £368 £31,412 £78,852 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£42,476 -£44,699 -£46,671 -£48,165 -£48,693 -£47,382 -£42,265 -£31,390 -£13,442 £12,497 £44,614 £83,635 £130,227

83 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current Electricity consumed (7.62 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £286 £428 £633 £937 £1,413 £2,187 £3,189 £4,630 £6,745 £9,804 £14,907 £22,198 £32,696 Electricity Costs S-Curve £268 £365 £512 £796 £1,433 £2,894 £5,359 £8,829 £12,918 £17,185 £22,433 £27,422 £32,145

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £20,302 £29,989 £44,297 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £24,092 £30,552 £37,046 £43,551

Current Net profit on charging £124 £179 £263 £386 £541 £701 £1,075 £1,669 £2,560 £3,941 £5,395 £7,791 £11,601 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £116 £152 £213 £328 £549 £927 £1,807 £3,183 £4,903 £6,907 £8,119 £9,624 £11,406

Current Yearly back office and £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly back Current office and maintenance -£476 -£421 -£337 -£214 -£59 £101 £475 £1,069 £1,960 £3,341 £4,795 £7,191 £11,001 costs (assumes capital S-Curve funded) -£484 -£448 -£387 -£272 -£51 £327 £1,207 £2,583 £4,303 £6,307 £7,519 £9,024 £10,806

Current Net Cash flow including -£34,876 -£35,297 -£35,634 -£35,848 -£35,907 -£35,806 -£35,331 -£34,262 -£32,302 -£28,961 -£24,166 -£16,975 -£5,974 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£34,884 -£35,331 -£35,719 -£35,991 -£36,042 -£35,715 -£34,508 -£31,926 -£27,623 -£21,315 -£13,796 -£4,772 £6,033

84 Urban Foresight Appendix V – Cashflows with hydro The following pages present an overview of the cashflows for an indicative tariff scenario 4 including different utilisation rates of hydro energy supplying the EV charger system. These scenarios also include the likely cumulative savings through the integration of a 90kWh battery storage system.

85 Urban Foresight 15% Hydro utilisation rate Applecross SITE: 15% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 Electricity consumed (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity consumed per Current 15 23 34 50 74 109 160 237 350 517 764 1,128 1,667 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 14 19 27 42 75 144 270 452 670 906 1,149 1,394 1,639

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Charging Fee 50kW (p/kWh) £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £1,535 £4,343 £8,374 £14,238 £22,702 £36,585 £56,562 £85,388 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £3,476 £10,299 £19,899 £31,181 £42,961 £57,240 £70,900 £83,876

Current £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £41,298 £61,002 £90,107 £133,099 £196,604 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,805 £53,311 £79,093 £106,928 £135,596 £164,422 £193,290

Current Net profit on charging £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £11,279 £14,584 £19,584 £27,060 £38,299 £53,522 £76,537 £111,216 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £13,482 £21,506 £33,413 £47,913 £63,967 £78,356 £93,521 £109,414

Current £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly Current -£1,828 -£958 £326 £2,223 £5,025 £7,629 £10,934 £15,934 £23,410 £34,649 £49,872 £72,887 £107,566 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,946 -£1,354 -£435 £1,336 £5,146 £9,832 £17,856 £29,763 £44,263 £60,317 £74,706 £89,871 £105,764

Net Cash flow including Current -£56,728 -£57,686 -£57,360 -£55,138 -£50,113 -£42,484 -£31,550 -£15,616 £7,794 £42,443 £92,315 £165,203 £272,768 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£56,846 -£58,201 -£58,636 -£57,300 -£52,154 -£42,322 -£24,466 £5,296 £49,559 £109,876 £184,582 £274,453 £380,218

Current 23,868 21,178 17,204 11,335 2,665 -10,141 -29,058 -57,000 -98,274 -159,240 -249,295 -382,318 -578,808 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 24,235 22,403 19,559 14,080 2,291 -22,965 -68,902 -135,444 -215,218 -301,342 -390,044 -479,233 -568,555

Battery impact: Current £785 £1,960 £3,696 £6,269 £10,148 £14,614 £19,024 £23,359 £27,634 £31,841 £36,171 £40,536 £44,889 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £734 £1,736 £3,140 £5,324 £9,257 £13,723 £18,134 £22,469 £26,743 £30,950 £35,280 £39,645 £43,998 86 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 15% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 Electricity consumed (8.15 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 45 66 98 144 213 314 464 686 1,013 1,497 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 38 67 129 242 406 602 814 1,032 1,252 1,472

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Charging Fee 22kW (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £924 £3,451 £7,079 £12,352 £19,961 £32,416 £50,354 £76,244 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £2,667 £8,800 £17,429 £27,568 £38,155 £50,967 £63,231 £74,886

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £27,799 £41,062 £60,653 £89,592 £132,339 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £35,885 £53,240 £71,976 £91,273 £110,676 £130,109

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £7,702 £9,289 £11,740 £15,447 £21,101 £28,237 £39,238 £56,095 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £8,748 £12,609 £18,456 £25,672 £33,821 £40,306 £47,445 £55,223

Current £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly Current -£2,223 -£1,638 -£774 £503 £2,389 £4,252 £5,839 £8,290 £11,997 £17,651 £24,787 £35,788 £52,645 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,303 -£1,905 -£1,286 -£94 £2,471 £5,298 £9,159 £15,006 £22,222 £30,371 £36,856 £43,995 £51,773

Net Cash flow including Current -£51,823 -£53,462 -£54,235 -£53,732 -£51,343 -£47,091 -£41,252 -£32,962 -£20,965 -£3,314 £21,473 £57,262 £109,906 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£51,903 -£53,808 -£55,094 -£55,188 -£52,717 -£47,419 -£38,261 -£23,255 -£1,033 £29,338 £66,194 £110,189 £161,961

Current 24,442 22,026 18,458 13,187 5,400 -6,101 -23,090 -48,185 -85,254 -140,008 -220,888 -340,356 -516,826 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 24,772 23,126 20,573 15,651 5,064 -17,618 -58,875 -118,637 -190,282 -267,631 -347,295 -427,397 -507,618

Battery impact: Current £705 £1,760 £3,320 £5,630 £9,114 £13,580 £17,990 £22,325 £26,600 £30,807 £35,137 £39,502 £43,855 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £660 £1,559 £2,820 £4,782 £8,314 £12,780 £17,191 £21,525 £25,800 £30,007 £34,337 £38,702 £43,055

87 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 15% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 Electricity consumed (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 44 64 95 141 208 307 453 669 988 1,460 day (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 37 65 126 236 396 587 794 1,007 1,221 1,435

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £791 £3,258 £6,798 £11,943 £19,366 £31,512 £49,008 £74,261 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £2,491 £8,475 £16,894 £26,785 £37,113 £49,606 £61,568 £72,936

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £27,077 £39,996 £59,079 £87,267 £128,904 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £34,954 £51,858 £70,108 £88,904 £107,804 £126,731

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £7,610 £9,152 £11,533 £15,134 £20,630 £27,567 £38,259 £54,643 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £8,627 £12,378 £18,060 £25,073 £32,995 £39,298 £46,235 £53,795

Current £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly Current -£1,655 -£1,085 -£243 £1,001 £2,838 £4,760 £6,302 £8,683 £12,284 £17,780 £24,717 £35,409 £51,793 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,733 -£1,345 -£742 £419 £2,917 £5,777 £9,528 £15,210 £22,223 £30,145 £36,448 £43,385 £50,945

Net Cash flow including Current -£41,755 -£42,841 -£43,084 -£42,083 -£39,246 -£34,485 -£28,183 -£19,501 -£7,216 £10,564 £35,281 £70,690 £122,483 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£41,833 -£43,178 -£43,920 -£43,501 -£40,584 -£34,807 -£25,279 -£10,069 £12,154 £42,299 £78,747 £122,132 £173,077

Current 24,567 22,211 18,730 13,588 5,993 -5,225 -21,796 -46,274 -82,430 -135,838 -214,727 -331,256 -503,383 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 24,888 23,283 20,792 15,992 5,665 -16,459 -56,700 -114,992 -184,874 -260,320 -338,024 -416,154 -494,402

Battery impact: Current £688 £1,717 £3,238 £5,492 £8,890 £13,356 £17,766 £22,101 £26,376 £30,582 £34,913 £39,278 £43,631 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £643 £1,521 £2,751 £4,664 £8,109 £12,576 £16,986 £21,321 £25,596 £29,802 £34,132 £38,498 £42,850

88 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 15% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current Electricity consumed 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity consumed per Current 6 8 12 18 27 40 58 86 128 188 278 411 607 day (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 5 7 10 15 27 52 98 165 244 330 419 508 597

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £286 £428 £633 £937 £1,413 £2,187 £3,189 £4,630 £6,745 £9,804 £14,907 £22,198 £32,696 Electricity Costs S-Curve £268 £365 £512 £796 £1,433 £2,894 £5,359 £8,829 £12,918 £17,185 £22,433 £27,422 £32,145

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £20,302 £29,989 £44,297 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £24,092 £30,552 £37,046 £43,551

Current Net profit on charging £124 £179 £263 £386 £541 £701 £1,075 £1,669 £2,560 £3,941 £5,395 £7,791 £11,601 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £116 £152 £213 £328 £549 £927 £1,807 £3,183 £4,903 £6,907 £8,119 £9,624 £11,406

Current Yearly back office and £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£476 -£421 -£337 -£214 -£59 £101 £475 £1,069 £1,960 £3,341 £4,795 £7,191 £11,001 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£484 -£448 -£387 -£272 -£51 £327 £1,207 £2,583 £4,303 £6,307 £7,519 £9,024 £10,806

Net Cash flow including Current -£34,876 -£35,297 -£35,634 -£35,848 -£35,907 -£35,806 -£35,331 -£34,262 -£32,302 -£28,961 -£24,166 -£16,975 -£5,974 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£34,884 -£35,331 -£35,719 -£35,991 -£36,042 -£35,715 -£34,508 -£31,926 -£27,623 -£21,315 -£13,796 -£4,772 £6,033

Current 27,452 26,472 25,024 22,886 19,727 15,061 8,169 -2,011 -17,049 -39,262 -72,072 -120,537 -192,126 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 27,586 26,918 25,882 23,886 19,591 10,389 -6,348 -30,592 -59,656 -91,035 -123,352 -155,847 -188,391

89 Urban Foresight 50% hydro utilisation rate Applecross SITE: 50% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current Electricity consumed 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity consumed per Current 15 23 34 50 74 109 160 237 350 517 764 1,128 1,667 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 14 19 27 42 75 144 270 452 670 906 1,149 1,394 1,639

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee 50kW (p/kWh) £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £4,263 £12,887 £26,481 £46,377 £75,232 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £8 £9,784 £21,206 £33,146 £47,137 £60,715 £73,719

Current £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £41,298 £61,002 £90,107 £133,099 £196,604 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,805 £53,311 £79,093 £106,928 £135,596 £164,422 £193,290

Current Net profit on charging £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £37,034 £48,115 £63,626 £86,723 £121,372 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,797 £43,527 £57,887 £73,782 £88,459 £103,707 £119,571

Current Yearly back office and £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£1,828 -£958 £326 £2,223 £5,025 £9,164 £15,277 £24,308 £33,384 £44,465 £59,976 £83,073 £117,722 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,946 -£1,354 -£435 £1,336 £5,146 £13,308 £28,147 £39,877 £54,237 £70,132 £84,809 £100,057 £115,921

Net Cash flow including Current -£56,728 -£57,686 -£57,360 -£55,138 -£50,113 -£40,949 -£25,672 -£1,363 £32,021 £76,486 £136,461 £219,534 £337,256 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£56,846 -£58,201 -£58,636 -£57,300 -£52,154 -£38,846 -£10,699 £29,178 £83,415 £153,547 £238,357 £338,414 £454,335

Current 92,715 90,025 86,052 80,182 71,513 58,706 39,790 11,848 -29,426 -90,393 -180,448 -313,470 -509,961 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 93,082 91,250 88,407 82,927 71,138 45,883 -54 -66,597 -146,370 -232,495 -321,196 -410,386 -499,708

Battery impact: Current £785 £1,960 £3,696 £6,269 £10,148 £16,149 £24,903 £37,612 £51,861 £65,883 £80,317 £94,868 £109,377 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £734 £1,736 £3,140 £5,324 £9,257 £17,200 £31,901 £46,350 £60,600 £74,621 £89,055 £103,606 £118,116

90 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 50% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current Electricity consumed 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 (8.15 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 45 66 98 144 213 314 464 686 1,013 1,497 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 38 67 129 242 406 602 814 1,032 1,252 1,472

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee 22kW (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £2,377 £10,145 £22,312 £40,168 £66,088 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £7,315 £17,594 £28,340 £40,863 £53,046 £64,729

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £27,799 £41,062 £60,653 £89,592 £132,339 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £35,885 £53,240 £71,976 £91,273 £110,676 £130,109

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £25,422 £30,917 £38,341 £49,424 £66,251 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £28,570 £35,646 £43,636 £50,410 £57,631 £65,379

Current £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly Current -£2,223 -£1,638 -£774 £503 £2,389 £5,175 £9,291 £15,369 £21,972 £27,467 £34,891 £45,974 £62,801 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,303 -£1,905 -£1,286 -£94 £2,471 £7,965 £17,959 £25,120 £32,196 £40,186 £46,960 £54,181 £61,929

Net Cash flow including Current -£51,823 -£53,462 -£54,235 -£53,732 -£51,343 -£46,168 -£36,877 -£21,508 £464 £27,930 £62,821 £108,795 £171,596 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£51,903 -£53,808 -£55,094 -£55,188 -£52,717 -£44,752 -£26,794 -£1,673 £30,523 £70,709 £117,669 £171,850 £233,779

Current 93,290 90,874 87,305 82,034 74,247 62,746 45,757 20,662 -16,406 -71,161 -152,040 -271,509 -447,978 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 93,619 91,974 89,420 84,499 73,911 51,229 9,973 -49,790 -121,435 -198,784 -278,448 -358,549 -438,770

Battery impact: Current £705 £1,760 £3,320 £5,630 £9,114 £14,504 £22,365 £33,779 £48,029 £62,051 £76,484 £91,035 £105,545 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £660 £1,559 £2,820 £4,782 £8,314 £15,447 £28,658 £43,107 £57,356 £71,378 £85,812 £100,363 £114,873

91 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 50% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current Electricity consumed 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 44 64 95 141 208 307 453 669 988 1,460 day (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 37 65 126 236 396 587 794 1,007 1,221 1,435

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £1,968 £9,551 £21,408 £38,822 £64,105 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £6,779 £16,810 £27,298 £39,503 £51,383 £62,780

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £27,077 £39,996 £59,079 £87,267 £128,904 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £34,954 £51,858 £70,108 £88,904 £107,804 £126,731

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £25,109 £30,445 £37,671 £48,445 £64,799 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £28,174 £35,048 £42,810 £49,401 £56,421 £63,952

Current £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly Current -£1,655 -£1,085 -£243 £1,001 £2,838 £5,551 £9,560 £15,481 £22,259 £27,595 £34,821 £45,595 £61,949 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,733 -£1,345 -£742 £419 £2,917 £8,269 £18,003 £25,324 £32,198 £39,960 £46,551 £53,571 £61,102

Net Cash flow including Current -£41,755 -£42,841 -£43,084 -£42,083 -£39,246 -£33,694 -£24,134 -£8,653 £13,606 £41,201 £76,022 £121,617 £183,566 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£41,833 -£43,178 -£43,920 -£43,501 -£40,584 -£32,315 -£14,312 £11,012 £43,210 £83,170 £129,721 £183,293 £244,394

Current 93,414 91,058 87,577 82,435 74,841 63,622 47,051 22,574 -13,583 -66,990 -145,879 -262,408 -434,536 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 93,736 92,131 89,640 84,840 74,513 52,389 12,147 -46,145 -116,027 -191,473 -269,176 -347,307 -425,554

Battery impact: Current £688 £1,717 £3,238 £5,492 £8,890 £14,147 £21,815 £32,948 £47,198 £61,220 £75,653 £90,204 £104,714 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £643 £1,521 £2,751 £4,664 £8,109 £15,067 £27,952 £42,402 £56,651 £70,673 £85,107 £99,658 £114,167

92 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 50% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current Electricity consumed 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity consumed per Current 6 8 12 18 27 40 58 86 128 188 278 411 607 day (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 5 7 10 15 27 52 98 165 244 330 419 508 597

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £473 £7,647 £18,187 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £3,163 £7,999 £12,871 £17,636

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £20,302 £29,989 £44,297 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £24,092 £30,552 £37,046 £43,551

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £19,829 £22,342 £26,111 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £20,929 £22,553 £24,175 £25,915

Current Yearly back office and £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£189 £6 £296 £723 £1,355 £2,287 £3,665 £5,699 £8,705 £13,144 £19,229 £21,742 £25,511 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£216 -£83 £124 £523 £1,382 £3,221 £6,566 £11,412 £17,221 £20,329 £21,953 £23,575 £25,315

Net Cash flow including Current -£34,589 -£34,583 -£34,287 -£33,564 -£32,209 -£29,922 -£26,258 -£20,558 -£11,853 £1,291 £20,520 £42,262 £67,772 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£34,616 -£34,699 -£34,575 -£34,051 -£32,669 -£29,448 -£22,882 -£11,471 £5,750 £26,079 £48,032 £71,607 £96,922

Current 96,299 95,319 93,871 91,733 88,574 83,908 77,016 66,836 51,798 29,586 -3,225 -51,690 -123,279 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 96,433 95,765 94,729 92,733 88,438 79,236 62,500 38,256 9,191 -22,187 -54,505 -87,000 -119,543

93 Urban Foresight 80% hydro utilisation rate Applecross SITE: 80% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current Average number of 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current Electricity consumed 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity consumed per Current 15 23 34 50 74 109 160 237 350 517 764 1,128 1,667 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 14 19 27 42 75 144 270 452 670 906 1,149 1,394 1,639

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee 50kW (p/kWh) £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £4,474 £17,821 £37,646 £66,526 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £1,114 £12,657 £24,733 £38,477 £51,984 £65,013

Current £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £41,298 £61,002 £90,107 £133,099 £196,604 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,805 £53,311 £79,093 £106,928 £135,596 £164,422 £193,290

Current Net profit on charging £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £41,298 £56,528 £72,286 £95,453 £130,078 tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,805 £52,197 £66,437 £82,196 £97,120 £112,438 £128,277

Current Yearly back office and £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£1,828 -£958 £326 £2,223 £5,025 £9,164 £15,277 £24,308 £37,648 £52,878 £68,636 £91,803 £126,428 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,946 -£1,354 -£435 £1,336 £5,146 £13,308 £28,155 £48,547 £62,787 £78,546 £93,470 £108,788 £124,627

Net Cash flow including Current -£56,728 -£57,686 -£57,360 -£55,138 -£50,113 -£40,949 -£25,672 -£1,363 £36,284 £89,162 £157,798 £249,601 £376,029 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£56,846 -£58,201 -£58,636 -£57,300 -£52,154 -£38,846 -£10,691 £37,856 £100,643 £179,188 £272,658 £381,445 £506,072

Current 151,727 149,037 145,064 139,194 130,525 117,718 98,802 70,860 29,586 -31,381 -121,436 -254,458 -450,949 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 152,094 150,262 147,419 141,939 130,150 104,895 58,958 -7,585 -87,358 -173,483 -262,184 -351,374 -440,696

Battery impact: Current £785 £1,960 £3,696 £6,269 £10,148 £16,149 £24,903 £37,612 £56,124 £78,559 £101,653 £124,935 £148,150 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £734 £1,736 £3,140 £5,324 £9,257 £17,200 £31,909 £55,028 £77,827 £100,262 £123,356 £146,638 £169,853

94 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 80% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 Electricity consumed (8.15 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 45 66 98 144 213 314 464 686 1,013 1,497 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 38 67 129 242 406 602 814 1,032 1,252 1,472

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee 22kW (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £1,732 £13,652 £31,438 £57,382 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £9,044 £19,927 £32,203 £44,315 £56,024

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £27,799 £41,062 £60,653 £89,592 £132,339 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £35,885 £53,240 £71,976 £91,273 £110,676 £130,109

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £27,799 £39,330 £47,001 £58,155 £74,957 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £35,885 £44,196 £52,049 £59,070 £66,361 £74,085

Current £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly Current -£2,223 -£1,638 -£774 £503 £2,389 £5,175 £9,291 £15,369 £24,349 £35,880 £43,551 £54,705 £71,507 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,303 -£1,905 -£1,286 -£94 £2,471 £7,965 £17,959 £32,435 £40,746 £48,599 £55,620 £62,911 £70,635

Net Cash flow including Current -£51,823 -£53,462 -£54,235 -£53,732 -£51,343 -£46,168 -£36,877 -£21,508 £2,841 £38,720 £82,271 £136,976 £208,483 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£51,903 -£53,808 -£55,094 -£55,188 -£52,717 -£44,752 -£26,794 £5,641 £46,387 £94,987 £150,607 £213,518 £284,153

Current 152,302 149,886 146,317 141,046 133,260 121,758 104,769 79,674 42,606 -12,149 -93,028 -212,497 -388,966 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 152,631 150,986 148,432 143,511 132,923 110,241 68,985 9,222 -62,423 -139,772 -219,436 -299,537 -379,758

Battery impact: Current £705 £1,760 £3,320 £5,630 £9,114 £14,504 £22,365 £33,779 £50,406 £72,841 £95,935 £119,216 £142,432 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £660 £1,559 £2,820 £4,782 £8,314 £15,447 £28,658 £50,422 £73,221 £95,656 £118,750 £142,032 £165,247

95 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 80% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current Electricity consumed 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 44 64 95 141 208 307 453 669 988 1,460 day (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 37 65 126 236 396 587 794 1,007 1,221 1,435

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £1,137 £12,748 £30,092 £55,399 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £8,260 £18,884 £30,842 £42,652 £54,074

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £27,077 £39,996 £59,079 £87,267 £128,904 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £34,954 £51,858 £70,108 £88,904 £107,804 £126,731

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £27,077 £38,859 £46,331 £57,175 £73,505 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £34,954 £43,597 £51,223 £58,062 £65,152 £72,657

Current £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£1,655 -£1,085 -£243 £1,001 £2,838 £5,551 £9,560 £15,481 £24,227 £36,009 £43,481 £54,325 £70,655 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,733 -£1,345 -£742 £419 £2,917 £8,269 £18,003 £32,104 £40,747 £48,373 £55,212 £62,302 £69,807

Net Cash flow including Current -£41,755 -£42,841 -£43,084 -£42,083 -£39,246 -£33,694 -£24,134 -£8,653 £15,573 £51,582 £95,063 £149,388 £220,043 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£41,833 -£43,178 -£43,920 -£43,501 -£40,584 -£32,315 -£14,312 £17,791 £58,539 £106,912 £162,124 £224,426 £294,233

Current 152,426 150,070 146,589 141,447 133,853 122,634 106,063 81,586 45,429 -7,978 -86,867 -203,396 -375,524 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 152,748 151,143 148,652 143,852 133,525 111,401 71,159 12,867 -57,015 -132,461 -210,164 -288,295 -366,542

Battery impact: Current £688 £1,717 £3,238 £5,492 £8,890 £14,147 £21,815 £32,948 £49,166 £71,601 £94,695 £117,976 £141,191 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £643 £1,521 £2,751 £4,664 £8,109 £15,067 £27,952 £49,181 £71,980 £94,415 £117,509 £140,791 £164,006

96 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: 80% hydro utilisation rate - Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current Electricity consumed 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity consumed per Current 6 8 12 18 27 40 58 86 128 188 278 411 607 day (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 5 7 10 15 27 52 98 165 244 330 419 508 597

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £9,481 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £4,141 £8,930

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £20,302 £29,989 £44,297 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £24,092 £30,552 £37,046 £43,551

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £20,302 £29,989 £34,816 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £24,092 £30,552 £32,906 £34,621

Current £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£189 £6 £296 £723 £1,355 £2,287 £3,665 £5,699 £8,705 £13,144 £19,702 £29,389 £34,216 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£216 -£83 £124 £523 £1,382 £3,221 £6,566 £11,412 £17,221 £23,492 £29,952 £32,306 £34,021

Net Cash flow including Current -£34,589 -£34,583 -£34,287 -£33,564 -£32,209 -£29,922 -£26,258 -£20,558 -£11,853 £1,291 £20,993 £50,382 £84,599 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£34,616 -£34,699 -£34,575 -£34,051 -£32,669 -£29,448 -£22,882 -£11,471 £5,750 £29,242 £59,194 £91,500 £125,521

Current 155,311 154,331 152,884 150,745 147,586 142,920 136,028 125,848 110,810 88,598 55,787 7,322 -64,267 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 155,445 154,777 153,741 151,745 147,450 138,248 121,512 97,268 68,203 36,825 4,507 -27,988 -60,531

97 Urban Foresight Appendix VI – Cashflows with new 90 kW turbine The following pages present an overview of the cashflows for an indicative tariff scenario 4 including the addition of a new 90 kW turbine in 2026 and its impact on the cashflow of the entire EV system.

98 Urban Foresight Introduction of 90kW turbine Applecross SITE: Introduction of 90kW hydro turbine - Scenario 1 - Hub 50kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 399 589 870 1,286 1,899 2,805 4,143 6,120 9,040 13,354 19,725 29,136 43,038 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 373 503 704 1,091 1,925 3,712 6,962 11,670 17,314 23,407 29,683 35,993 42,312

Current 5,638 8,328 12,302 18,171 26,841 39,647 58,564 86,506 127,780 188,746 278,801 411,824 608,314 Electricity consumed (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 5,271 7,103 9,947 15,426 27,215 52,471 98,408 164,950 244,724 330,848 419,550 508,739 598,061

Electricity consumed per Current 15 23 34 50 74 109 160 237 350 517 764 1,128 1,667 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 14 19 27 42 75 144 270 452 670 906 1,149 1,394 1,639

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee 50kW (p/kWh) £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 £0.30 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £9,279 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £7,767

Current £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £41,298 £61,002 £90,107 £133,099 £196,604 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,805 £53,311 £79,093 £106,928 £135,596 £164,422 £193,290

Current £1,822 £2,692 £3,976 £5,873 £8,675 £12,814 £18,927 £27,958 £41,298 £61,002 £90,107 £133,099 £187,325 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,704 £2,296 £3,215 £4,986 £8,796 £16,958 £31,805 £53,311 £79,093 £106,928 £135,596 £164,422 £185,524

Current £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650 £3,650

Net Profit after yearly Current -£1,828 -£958 £326 £2,223 £5,025 £9,164 £15,277 £24,308 £37,648 £57,352 £86,457 £129,449 £183,675 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,946 -£1,354 -£435 £1,336 £5,146 £13,308 £28,155 £49,661 £75,443 £103,278 £131,946 £160,772 £181,874

Net Cash flow including Current -£56,728 -£57,686 -£57,360 -£55,138 -£50,113 -£40,949 -£25,672 -£1,363 £36,284 £93,636 £180,093 £309,542 £493,217 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£56,846 -£58,201 -£58,636 -£57,300 -£52,154 -£38,846 -£10,691 £38,970 £114,413 £217,692 £349,638 £510,410 £692,283

Current 92,715 90,025 86,052 80,182 71,513 58,706 486,851 458,909 417,635 356,668 266,613 133,591 -62,900 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 93,082 91,250 88,407 82,927 71,138 45,883 447,007 380,464 300,691 214,566 125,865 36,675 -52,647

Battery impact: Current £785 £1,960 £3,696 £6,269 £10,148 £16,149 £24,903 £37,612 £56,124 £83,033 £123,948 £184,876 £265,338 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £734 £1,736 £3,140 £5,324 £9,257 £17,200 £31,909 £56,142 £91,598 £138,766 £200,336 £275,602 £356,064 99 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Introduction of 90kW hydro turbine - Scenario 2 - Hub 22kW & 7kW incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 592 875 1,293 1,909 2,821 4,166 6,154 9,090 13,428 19,834 29,297 43,276 63,924 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 554 746 1,045 1,621 2,860 5,514 10,341 17,334 25,716 34,767 44,088 53,460 62,846

Current 5,064 7,480 11,048 16,320 24,106 35,607 52,597 77,692 114,760 169,514 250,394 369,862 546,332 Electricity consumed (8.15 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,734 6,380 8,933 13,855 24,442 47,124 88,381 148,143 219,788 297,137 376,801 456,903 537,124

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 45 66 98 144 213 314 464 686 1,013 1,497 day (14.13 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 38 67 129 242 406 602 814 1,032 1,252 1,472

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee 22kW (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Charging Fee 7kW (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £135 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £27,799 £41,062 £60,653 £89,592 £132,339 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £35,885 £53,240 £71,976 £91,273 £110,676 £130,109

Current £1,227 £1,812 £2,676 £3,953 £5,839 £8,625 £12,741 £18,819 £27,799 £41,062 £60,653 £89,592 £132,204 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,147 £1,545 £2,164 £3,356 £5,921 £11,415 £21,409 £35,885 £53,240 £71,976 £91,273 £110,676 £130,109

Current £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450 £3,450

Net Profit after yearly Current -£2,223 -£1,638 -£774 £503 £2,389 £5,175 £9,291 £15,369 £24,349 £37,612 £57,203 £86,142 £128,754 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£2,303 -£1,905 -£1,286 -£94 £2,471 £7,965 £17,959 £32,435 £49,790 £68,526 £87,823 £107,226 £126,659

Net Cash flow including Current -£51,823 -£53,462 -£54,235 -£53,732 -£51,343 -£46,168 -£36,877 -£21,508 £2,841 £40,452 £97,656 £183,798 £312,552 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£51,903 -£53,808 -£55,094 -£55,188 -£52,717 -£44,752 -£26,794 £5,641 £55,431 £123,957 £211,781 £319,007 £445,666

Current 93,290 90,874 87,305 82,034 74,247 62,746 492,818 467,723 430,655 375,900 295,021 175,552 -917 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 93,619 91,974 89,420 84,499 73,911 51,229 457,034 397,271 325,626 248,277 168,613 88,512 8,291

Battery impact: Current £705 £1,760 £3,320 £5,630 £9,114 £14,504 £22,365 £33,779 £50,406 £74,573 £111,319 £166,039 £246,500 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £660 £1,559 £2,820 £4,782 £8,314 £15,447 £28,658 £50,422 £82,265 £124,627 £179,924 £247,520 £326,759

100 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Introduction of 90kW hydro turbine - Scenario 3 - 22kW Standalone incl. Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current Projected plug-in vehicle 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 545 804 1,188 1,755 2,592 3,829 5,656 8,355 12,341 18,230 26,928 39,775 58,753 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 509 686 961 1,490 2,629 5,068 9,505 15,931 23,636 31,954 40,521 49,136 57,763

Current Electricity consumed 4,939 7,295 10,776 15,918 23,513 34,731 51,302 75,780 111,936 165,344 244,233 360,762 532,889 (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 4,618 6,223 8,714 13,514 23,841 45,965 86,206 144,498 214,380 289,826 367,530 445,661 523,908

Electricity consumed per Current 14 20 30 44 64 95 141 208 307 453 669 988 1,460 day (9.07 kWh per session) S-Curve 13 17 24 37 65 126 236 396 587 794 1,007 1,221 1,435

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 £0.20 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £27,077 £39,996 £59,079 £87,267 £128,904 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £34,954 £51,858 £70,108 £88,904 £107,804 £126,731

Current £1,195 £1,765 £2,607 £3,851 £5,688 £8,401 £12,410 £18,331 £27,077 £39,996 £59,079 £87,267 £128,904 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £1,117 £1,505 £2,108 £3,269 £5,767 £11,119 £20,853 £34,954 £51,858 £70,108 £88,904 £107,804 £126,731

Current Yearly back office and £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 maintenance costs S-Curve £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850 £2,850

Net Profit after yearly Current back office and -£1,655 -£1,085 -£243 £1,001 £2,838 £5,551 £9,560 £15,481 £24,227 £37,146 £56,229 £84,417 £126,054 maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£1,733 -£1,345 -£742 £419 £2,917 £8,269 £18,003 £32,104 £49,008 £67,258 £86,054 £104,954 £123,881

Net Cash flow including Current -£41,755 -£42,841 -£43,084 -£42,083 -£39,246 -£33,694 -£24,134 -£8,653 £15,573 £52,719 £108,948 £193,365 £319,419 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£41,833 -£43,178 -£43,920 -£43,501 -£40,584 -£32,315 -£14,312 £17,791 £66,799 £134,057 £220,111 £325,065 £448,946

Current 93,414 91,058 87,577 82,435 74,841 63,622 494,112 469,635 433,478 380,071 301,182 184,653 12,525 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 93,736 92,131 89,640 84,840 74,513 52,389 459,208 400,916 331,034 255,588 177,885 99,754 21,507

Battery impact: Current £688 £1,717 £3,238 £5,492 £8,890 £14,147 £21,815 £32,948 £49,166 £72,738 £108,580 £161,953 £240,567 cumulative electricity savings to payback S-Curve capital £643 £1,521 £2,751 £4,664 £8,109 £15,067 £27,952 £49,181 £80,241 £121,560 £175,497 £241,430 £318,719

101 Urban Foresight Applecross SITE: Introduction of 90kW hydro turbine - Scenario 4 - 7kW Standalone w/o Battery

APPLECROSS Scenario 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Current 78 115 170 251 371 548 809 1,195 1,765 2,607 3,851 5,688 8,402 Projected plug-in vehicle Uptake for area S-Curve 73 98 137 213 376 725 1,359 2,278 3,380 4,570 5,795 7,027 8,261

Current 270 398 588 869 1,283 1,896 2,800 4,136 6,110 9,025 13,330 19,691 29,086 Average number of charging sessions S-Curve 252 340 476 738 1,301 2,509 4,705 7,887 11,701 15,819 20,060 24,325 28,595

Current 2,054 3,034 4,482 6,620 9,779 14,445 21,337 31,517 46,555 68,768 101,578 150,043 221,632 Electricity consumed (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 1,921 2,588 3,624 5,620 9,915 19,117 35,854 60,098 89,162 120,541 152,858 185,353 217,897

Electricity consumed per Current 6 8 12 18 27 40 58 86 128 188 278 411 607 day (7.62 kWh per session) S-Curve 5 7 10 15 27 52 98 165 244 330 419 508 597

Electricity prices £0.139 £0.141 £0.141 £0.142 £0.145 £0.151 £0.149 £0.147 £0.145 £0.143 £0.147 £0.148 £0.148 Hydro electricity utilisation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Charging Fee (p/kWh) £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 £0.15 Connection Fee £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38 £0.38

Current £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Electricity Costs S-Curve £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £20,302 £29,989 £44,297 Tariff Revenues S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £24,092 £30,552 £37,046 £43,551

Current £411 £606 £896 £1,323 £1,955 £2,887 £4,265 £6,299 £9,305 £13,744 £20,302 £29,989 £44,297 Net profit on charging tariff vs electricity costs S-Curve £384 £517 £724 £1,123 £1,982 £3,821 £7,166 £12,012 £17,821 £24,092 £30,552 £37,046 £43,551

Current £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 Yearly back office and maintenance costs S-Curve £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600 £600

Net Profit after yearly Current -£189 £6 £296 £723 £1,355 £2,287 £3,665 £5,699 £8,705 £13,144 £19,702 £29,389 £43,697 back office and maintenance costs S-Curve (assumes capital funded) -£216 -£83 £124 £523 £1,382 £3,221 £6,566 £11,412 £17,221 £23,492 £29,952 £36,446 £42,951

Net Cash flow including Current -£34,589 -£34,583 -£34,287 -£33,564 -£32,209 -£29,922 -£26,258 -£20,558 -£11,853 £1,291 £20,993 £50,382 £94,080 chargepoint capital outlay S-Curve -£34,616 -£34,699 -£34,575 -£34,051 -£32,669 -£29,448 -£22,882 -£11,471 £5,750 £29,242 £59,194 £95,640 £138,591

Current 96,299 95,319 93,871 91,733 88,574 83,908 524,077 513,897 498,859 476,647 443,836 395,371 323,782 Excess hydro (kWh) S-Curve 96,433 95,765 94,729 92,733 88,438 79,236 509,561 485,317 456,252 424,874 392,556 360,061 327,518

102 Urban Foresight © Urban Foresight Ltd, 2020

The Catalyst, 3 Science Square Flour Mill, Newcastle Helix 34 Commercial Street, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE4 5TF Dundee, DD1 3EJ United Kingdom Scotland +44 (0)191 495 7350 +44(0)138 22 40 40 urbanforesight.org [email protected]

103 Urban Foresight