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Redefining Emerging Markets May 11Th 2016 • the Metropolitan Club • New York Supported by Growth Crossings: Redefining emerging markets May 11th 2016 • The Metropolitan Club • New York Emerging markets (EMs) have fallen out of fashion. The International Monetary Fund predicts that 2016 will be the sixth successive year of underwhelming emerging-market growth, clocking in at just over 4%. Two of the famed “BRIC” economies, Russia and Brazil, are mired in recession. China’s growth is stuttering, and most analysts fear the country’s economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Rising interest rates in the United States, and a stronger dollar, will only increase stress on EMs. Knowing this, even patient investors are panicking, and selling emerging- market assets in droves. Is the fear justified? Are emerging markets finished? Or could their prospects be sunnier than the prevailing mood? Growth Crossings: Redefining emerging markets will gather senior finance leaders, investors and experts to examine the fundamental changes sweeping across emerging markets. We will ask, amid the gloom, where are the bright spots? 8.00am Breakfast and registration 8.30am Opening remarks and series overview 9.00am The one that matters: China’s path to stability China’s slowdown is rippling across developed and developing markets. Its demand for commodities over the last two decades has fuelled growth across Asia, Africa and the Americas. Now, as the country undergoes a structural transition, all its major trade partners are feeling the pinch. Few trust the Chinese central bank’s 6.8% growth prediction for 2016; the reality should be closer to 5%. Despite Beijing’s best efforts, capital is flowing out of the country in waves. Analysts worry that the government’s currency and stock market intervention will continue into 2016, potentially placing more stress on the global economy. Is it all downhill for the stumbling giant? In this provocative and incisive opening interview, we will ask whether the outlook for China’s economy is as grim as it seems, and explore the practical challenges Beijing faces as it tries to restore stability. Keynote speaker: Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Moderator: Patrick Foulis, US business editor and New York bureau chief, The Economist 9.25am Panel discussion: Finding the bright spots Not all emerging markets are created equal, though lately bearish investors seem to view all with the same pessimism. Brazil (once a strong contender for top EM investment destination) and Russia are mired in political and economic troubles. Supported by South Africa’s growth is stifled by its wilting currency and a president blind to the country’s financial troubles. India, now posting 7.5% growth, appears to be the only bright spot—but investors are wary, having been burned by its labyrinthine regulatory system in the past. Is investor pessimism justified? Where are the bright spots? ● Is it time to buy yet? Are there potential bargains available for those willing to take on the risk? ● What will be the next twist in the EM story? Will the looming EM debt crisis trigger a global recession? ● How are companies who own assets across EMs adapting to this crisis? What is their strategy for the future? ● What policies can prevent further damage and foster cooperation to improve the global outlook? Panellists: Jeff Shen, global head of multi-asset strategies & head and chief investment officer of scientific active equity, BlackRock Michael Hasenstab, executive vice-president and chief investment officer, Templeton Global Macro Mike Moran, head of economic research, The Americas, Standard Chartered Moderator: Patrick Foulis, US business editor and New York bureau chief, The Economist 10.10am Networking break 10.40am The World If… The new era of risk EM turmoil is being driven partly by the re-emergence of political and geopolitical risk. Russia’s new-found assertiveness, intensifying conflict in the Middle East and the looming spectre of Brexit are all vivid reminders that what happens on the battlefield and in the halls of power can dramatically affect markets. This discussion will examine some low-probability, high-impact future scenarios, both good and bad. The question for panellists is not, “Will this scenario happen?” but, “What would be the consequences if it did?” These are not outcomes anyone necessarily expects, but they are plausible developments one should be prepared for. What if… ● …North Korea hits Western multinational corporations with a series of co- ordinated and debilitating cyber-attacks? ● …Islamic State launches simultaneous terror attacks on key cities in the United States and Europe? ● …oil prices crash to $10 by the end of 2016? Supported by Panellists: Alex Kazan, head of emerging market strategy, Eurasia Group Marcos Troyjo, director of the BRICLab, Columbia University Anja Manuel, author, “This Brave New World: India, China and the United States” and former State Department official Moderator: Kevin Plumberg, Managing editor, The Economist Intelligence Unit 11.25am Rise of the South: EM companies on the hunt In recent years, EM companies have looked towards developed markets for new sources of growth. Merger and acquisition activity has skyrocketed as these firms, no longer benefiting from cheap labour at home, buy up foreign competition to access new markets. Haier, a Chinese appliance-maker, recently bought GE Appliances for $5.4 billion. Banco do Brasil, which is Latin America’s largest bank by assets, has acquired the tiny, Florida-based EuroBank as a foothold from which to tap the Brazilian diaspora in the United States. And India’s Tata Group has been on a buying spree, famously picking up auto brands Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford, among other purchases. What is the outlook for continued mergers and acquisitions by EM companies? Are certain sectors especially hot? What challenges lie ahead, now the hunted have become the hunters? Panellists: Rangu Salgame, chief executive, Growth Ventures and Service Provider Group, Tata Communications Andres Garcia-Amaya, executive director, Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific Equities Team, JP Morgan Asset Management Moderator: Kevin Plumberg, Managing editor, The Economist Intelligence Unit 11.55am Panel discussion: Are we all tech companies now? Digital innovation is reshaping financial services. Investment managers are being replaced by algorithm-controlled “robo-advisers”, while the blockchain, a ledger technology pioneered by Bitcoin, looks set to reshape the finance industry’s infrastructure. Will this new tech also overturn the way investors look at EMs? ● How will blockchains and other technologies affect financial institutions’ assessment of the risks of doing business in and with emerging markets? ● How will financial institutions use technology to manage the rising costs of compliance? ● How will the Chinese fintech boom reshape financial services globally? Supported by Panellists: John Clippinger, research scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jalak Jobanputra, founding partner, FuturePerfect Ventures Cynthia Mullock, general counsel and chief compliance officer, Artivest Moderator: Patrick Foulis, US business editor and New York bureau chief, The Economist 12.40pm Closing remarks from the chairman 12.45pm Networking luncheon 1.00pm Special presentation: Access China: The upside of financial-market liberalisation China’s capital account liberalisation could see a significant rise in investment flows both in and out of the country. The bond market is soon to open to foreign investors; though it ranks as the world’s third largest, it is far from reaching its potential. Chinese investors are also looking for greater diversification by pouring money into international assets. As funds criss- cross in and out of China, what opportunities exist for international asset managers and investors? Presenter: Becky Liu, senior Asia rates strategist, Standard Chartered .
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