1 Probability Spaces
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Measure-Theoretic Probability I
Measure-Theoretic Probability I Steven P.Lalley Winter 2017 1 1 Measure Theory 1.1 Why Measure Theory? There are two different views – not necessarily exclusive – on what “probability” means: the subjectivist view and the frequentist view. To the subjectivist, probability is a system of laws that should govern a rational person’s behavior in situations where a bet must be placed (not necessarily just in a casino, but in situations where a decision must be made about how to proceed when only imperfect information about the outcome of the decision is available, for instance, should I allow Dr. Scissorhands to replace my arthritic knee by a plastic joint?). To the frequentist, the laws of probability describe the long- run relative frequencies of different events in “experiments” that can be repeated under roughly identical conditions, for instance, rolling a pair of dice. For the frequentist inter- pretation, it is imperative that probability spaces be large enough to allow a description of an experiment, like dice-rolling, that is repeated infinitely many times, and that the mathematical laws should permit easy handling of limits, so that one can make sense of things like “the probability that the long-run fraction of dice rolls where the two dice sum to 7 is 1/6”. But even for the subjectivist, the laws of probability should allow for description of situations where there might be a continuum of possible outcomes, or pos- sible actions to be taken. Once one is reconciled to the need for such flexibility, it soon becomes apparent that measure theory (the theory of countably additive, as opposed to merely finitely additive measures) is the only way to go. -
Appendix A. Measure and Integration
Appendix A. Measure and integration We suppose the reader is familiar with the basic facts concerning set theory and integration as they are presented in the introductory course of analysis. In this appendix, we review them briefly, and add some more which we shall need in the text. Basic references for proofs and a detailed exposition are, e.g., [[ H a l 1 ]] , [[ J a r 1 , 2 ]] , [[ K F 1 , 2 ]] , [[ L i L ]] , [[ R u 1 ]] , or any other textbook on analysis you might prefer. A.1 Sets, mappings, relations A set is a collection of objects called elements. The symbol card X denotes the cardi- nality of the set X. The subset M consisting of the elements of X which satisfy the conditions P1(x),...,Pn(x) is usually written as M = { x ∈ X : P1(x),...,Pn(x) }.A set whose elements are certain sets is called a system or family of these sets; the family of all subsystems of a given X is denoted as 2X . The operations of union, intersection, and set difference are introduced in the standard way; the first two of these are commutative, associative, and mutually distributive. In a { } system Mα of any cardinality, the de Morgan relations , X \ Mα = (X \ Mα)and X \ Mα = (X \ Mα), α α α α are valid. Another elementary property is the following: for any family {Mn} ,whichis { } at most countable, there is a disjoint family Nn of the same cardinality such that ⊂ \ ∪ \ Nn Mn and n Nn = n Mn.Theset(M N) (N M) is called the symmetric difference of the sets M,N and denoted as M #N. -
Conditional Generalizations of Strong Laws Which Conclude the Partial Sums Converge Almost Surely1
The Annals ofProbability 1982. Vol. 10, No.3. 828-830 CONDITIONAL GENERALIZATIONS OF STRONG LAWS WHICH CONCLUDE THE PARTIAL SUMS CONVERGE ALMOST SURELY1 By T. P. HILL Georgia Institute of Technology Suppose that for every independent sequence of random variables satis fying some hypothesis condition H, it follows that the partial sums converge almost surely. Then it is shown that for every arbitrarily-dependent sequence of random variables, the partial sums converge almost surely on the event where the conditional distributions (given the past) satisfy precisely the same condition H. Thus many strong laws for independent sequences may be immediately generalized into conditional results for arbitrarily-dependent sequences. 1. Introduction. Ifevery sequence ofindependent random variables having property A has property B almost surely, does every arbitrarily-dependent sequence of random variables have property B almost surely on the set where the conditional distributions have property A? Not in general, but comparisons of the conditional Borel-Cantelli Lemmas, the condi tional three-series theorem, and many martingale results with their independent counter parts suggest that the answer is affirmative in fairly general situations. The purpose ofthis note is to prove Theorem 1, which states, in part, that if "property B" is "the partial sums converge," then the answer is always affIrmative, regardless of "property A." Thus many strong laws for independent sequences (even laws yet undiscovered) may be immediately generalized into conditional results for arbitrarily-dependent sequences. 2. Main Theorem. In this note, IY = (Y1 , Y2 , ••• ) is a sequence ofrandom variables on a probability triple (n, d, !?I'), Sn = Y 1 + Y 2 + .. -
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes Antonio Jiménez-Martínez Chapter 1 Probability spaces In this chapter we introduce the theoretical structures that will allow us to assign proba- bilities in a wide range of probability problems. 1.1. Examples of random phenomena Science attempts to formulate general laws on the basis of observation and experiment. The simplest and most used scheme of such laws is: if a set of conditions B is satisfied =) event A occurs. Examples of such laws are the law of gravity, the law of conservation of mass, and many other instances in chemistry, physics, biology... If event A occurs inevitably whenever the set of conditions B is satisfied, we say that A is certain or sure (under the set of conditions B). If A can never occur whenever B is satisfied, we say that A is impossible (under the set of conditions B). If A may or may not occur whenever B is satisfied, then A is said to be a random phenomenon. Random phenomena is our subject matter. Unlike certain and impossible events, the presence of randomness implies that the set of conditions B do not reflect all the necessary and sufficient conditions for the event A to occur. It might seem them impossible to make any worthwhile statements about random phenomena. However, experience has shown that many random phenomena exhibit a statistical regularity that makes them subject to study. For such random phenomena it is possible to estimate the chance of occurrence of the random event. This estimate can be obtained from laws, called probabilistic or stochastic, with the form: if a set of conditions B is satisfied event A occurs m times =) repeatedly n times out of the n repetitions. -
The Probability Set-Up.Pdf
CHAPTER 2 The probability set-up 2.1. Basic theory of probability We will have a sample space, denoted by S (sometimes Ω) that consists of all possible outcomes. For example, if we roll two dice, the sample space would be all possible pairs made up of the numbers one through six. An event is a subset of S. Another example is to toss a coin 2 times, and let S = fHH;HT;TH;TT g; or to let S be the possible orders in which 5 horses nish in a horse race; or S the possible prices of some stock at closing time today; or S = [0; 1); the age at which someone dies; or S the points in a circle, the possible places a dart can hit. We should also keep in mind that the same setting can be described using dierent sample set. For example, in two solutions in Example 1.30 we used two dierent sample sets. 2.1.1. Sets. We start by describing elementary operations on sets. By a set we mean a collection of distinct objects called elements of the set, and we consider a set as an object in its own right. Set operations Suppose S is a set. We say that A ⊂ S, that is, A is a subset of S if every element in A is contained in S; A [ B is the union of sets A ⊂ S and B ⊂ S and denotes the points of S that are in A or B or both; A \ B is the intersection of sets A ⊂ S and B ⊂ S and is the set of points that are in both A and B; ; denotes the empty set; Ac is the complement of A, that is, the points in S that are not in A. -
1 Probabilities
1 Probabilities 1.1 Experiments with randomness We will use the term experiment in a very general way to refer to some process that produces a random outcome. Examples: (Ask class for some first) Here are some discrete examples: • roll a die • flip a coin • flip a coin until we get heads And here are some continuous examples: • height of a U of A student • random number in [0, 1] • the time it takes until a radioactive substance undergoes a decay These examples share the following common features: There is a proce- dure or natural phenomena called the experiment. It has a set of possible outcomes. There is a way to assign probabilities to sets of possible outcomes. We will call this a probability measure. 1.2 Outcomes and events Definition 1. An experiment is a well defined procedure or sequence of procedures that produces an outcome. The set of possible outcomes is called the sample space. We will typically denote an individual outcome by ω and the sample space by Ω. Definition 2. An event is a subset of the sample space. This definition will be changed when we come to the definition ofa σ-field. The next thing to define is a probability measure. Before we can do this properly we need some more structure, so for now we just make an informal definition. A probability measure is a function on the collection of events 1 that assign a number between 0 and 1 to each event and satisfies certain properties. NB: A probability measure is not a function on Ω. -
Propensities and Probabilities
ARTICLE IN PRESS Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2007) 593–625 www.elsevier.com/locate/shpsb Propensities and probabilities Nuel Belnap 1028-A Cathedral of Learning, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA Received 19 May 2006; accepted 6 September 2006 Abstract Popper’s introduction of ‘‘propensity’’ was intended to provide a solid conceptual foundation for objective single-case probabilities. By considering the partly opposed contributions of Humphreys and Miller and Salmon, it is argued that when properly understood, propensities can in fact be understood as objective single-case causal probabilities of transitions between concrete events. The chief claim is that propensities are well-explicated by describing how they fit into the existing formal theory of branching space-times, which is simultaneously indeterministic and causal. Several problematic examples, some commonsense and some quantum-mechanical, are used to make clear the advantages of invoking branching space-times theory in coming to understand propensities. r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Propensities; Probabilities; Space-times; Originating causes; Indeterminism; Branching histories 1. Introduction You are flipping a fair coin fairly. You ascribe a probability to a single case by asserting The probability that heads will occur on this very next flip is about 50%. ð1Þ The rough idea of a single-case probability seems clear enough when one is told that the contrast is with either generalizations or frequencies attributed to populations asserted while you are flipping a fair coin fairly, such as In the long run; the probability of heads occurring among flips is about 50%. ð2Þ E-mail address: [email protected] 1355-2198/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. -
6.436J Lecture 13: Product Measure and Fubini's Theorem
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 6.436J/15.085J Fall 2008 Lecture 13 10/22/2008 PRODUCT MEASURE AND FUBINI'S THEOREM Contents 1. Product measure 2. Fubini’s theorem In elementary math and calculus, we often interchange the order of summa tion and integration. The discussion here is concerned with conditions under which this is legitimate. 1 PRODUCT MEASURE Consider two probabilistic experiments described by probability spaces (�1; F1; P1) and (�2; F2; P2), respectively. We are interested in forming a probabilistic model of a “joint experiment” in which the original two experiments are car ried out independently. 1.1 The sample space of the joint experiment If the first experiment has an outcome !1, and the second has an outcome !2, then the outcome of the joint experiment is the pair (!1; !2). This leads us to define a new sample space � = �1 × �2. 1.2 The �-field of the joint experiment Next, we need a �-field on �. If A1 2 F1, we certainly want to be able to talk about the event f!1 2 A1g and its probability. In terms of the joint experiment, this would be the same as the event A1 × �1 = f(!1; !2) j !1 2 A1; !2 2 �2g: 1 Thus, we would like our �-field on � to include all sets of the form A1 × �2, (with A1 2 F1) and by symmetry, all sets of the form �1 ×A2 (with (A2 2 F2). This leads us to the following definition. Definition 1. We define F1 ×F2 as the smallest �-field of subsets of �1 ×�2 that contains all sets of the form A1 × �2 and �1 × A2, where A1 2 F1 and A2 2 F2. -
Determinism, Indeterminism and the Statistical Postulate
Tipicality, Explanation, The Statistical Postulate, and GRW Valia Allori Northern Illinois University [email protected] www.valiaallori.com Rutgers, October 24-26, 2019 1 Overview Context: Explanation of the macroscopic laws of thermodynamics in the Boltzmannian approach Among the ingredients: the statistical postulate (connected with the notion of probability) In this presentation: typicality Def: P is a typical property of X-type object/phenomena iff the vast majority of objects/phenomena of type X possesses P Part I: typicality is sufficient to explain macroscopic laws – explanatory schema based on typicality: you explain P if you explain that P is typical Part II: the statistical postulate as derivable from the dynamics Part III: if so, no preference for indeterministic theories in the quantum domain 2 Summary of Boltzmann- 1 Aim: ‘derive’ macroscopic laws of thermodynamics in terms of the microscopic Newtonian dynamics Problems: Technical ones: There are to many particles to do exact calculations Solution: statistical methods - if 푁 is big enough, one can use suitable mathematical technique to obtain information of macro systems even without having the exact solution Conceptual ones: Macro processes are irreversible, while micro processes are not Boltzmann 3 Summary of Boltzmann- 2 Postulate 1: the microscopic dynamics microstate 푋 = 푟1, … . 푟푁, 푣1, … . 푣푁 in phase space Partition of phase space into Macrostates Macrostate 푀(푋): set of macroscopically indistinguishable microstates Macroscopic view Many 푋 for a given 푀 given 푀, which 푋 is unknown Macro Properties (e.g. temperature): they slowly vary on the Macro scale There is a particular Macrostate which is incredibly bigger than the others There are many ways more to have, for instance, uniform temperature than not equilibrium (Macro)state 4 Summary of Boltzmann- 3 Entropy: (def) proportional to the size of the Macrostate in phase space (i.e. -
Topic 1: Basic Probability Definition of Sets
Topic 1: Basic probability ² Review of sets ² Sample space and probability measure ² Probability axioms ² Basic probability laws ² Conditional probability ² Bayes' rules ² Independence ² Counting ES150 { Harvard SEAS 1 De¯nition of Sets ² A set S is a collection of objects, which are the elements of the set. { The number of elements in a set S can be ¯nite S = fx1; x2; : : : ; xng or in¯nite but countable S = fx1; x2; : : :g or uncountably in¯nite. { S can also contain elements with a certain property S = fx j x satis¯es P g ² S is a subset of T if every element of S also belongs to T S ½ T or T S If S ½ T and T ½ S then S = T . ² The universal set is the set of all objects within a context. We then consider all sets S ½ . ES150 { Harvard SEAS 2 Set Operations and Properties ² Set operations { Complement Ac: set of all elements not in A { Union A \ B: set of all elements in A or B or both { Intersection A [ B: set of all elements common in both A and B { Di®erence A ¡ B: set containing all elements in A but not in B. ² Properties of set operations { Commutative: A \ B = B \ A and A [ B = B [ A. (But A ¡ B 6= B ¡ A). { Associative: (A \ B) \ C = A \ (B \ C) = A \ B \ C. (also for [) { Distributive: A \ (B [ C) = (A \ B) [ (A \ C) A [ (B \ C) = (A [ B) \ (A [ C) { DeMorgan's laws: (A \ B)c = Ac [ Bc (A [ B)c = Ac \ Bc ES150 { Harvard SEAS 3 Elements of probability theory A probabilistic model includes ² The sample space of an experiment { set of all possible outcomes { ¯nite or in¯nite { discrete or continuous { possibly multi-dimensional ² An event A is a set of outcomes { a subset of the sample space, A ½ . -
ERGODIC THEORY and ENTROPY Contents 1. Introduction 1 2
ERGODIC THEORY AND ENTROPY JACOB FIEDLER Abstract. In this paper, we introduce the basic notions of ergodic theory, starting with measure-preserving transformations and culminating in as a statement of Birkhoff's ergodic theorem and a proof of some related results. Then, consideration of whether Bernoulli shifts are measure-theoretically iso- morphic motivates the notion of measure-theoretic entropy. The Kolmogorov- Sinai theorem is stated to aid in calculation of entropy, and with this tool, Bernoulli shifts are reexamined. Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Measure-Preserving Transformations 2 3. Ergodic Theory and Basic Examples 4 4. Birkhoff's Ergodic Theorem and Applications 9 5. Measure-Theoretic Isomorphisms 14 6. Measure-Theoretic Entropy 17 Acknowledgements 22 References 22 1. Introduction In 1890, Henri Poincar´easked under what conditions points in a given set within a dynamical system would return to that set infinitely many times. As it turns out, under certain conditions almost every point within the original set will return repeatedly. We must stipulate that the dynamical system be modeled by a measure space equipped with a certain type of transformation T :(X; B; m) ! (X; B; m). We denote the set we are interested in as B 2 B, and let B0 be the set of all points in B that return to B infinitely often (meaning that for a point b 2 B, T m(b) 2 B for infinitely many m). Then we can be assured that m(B n B0) = 0. This result will be proven at the end of Section 2 of this paper. In other words, only a null set of points strays from a given set permanently. -
Measure Theory and Probability
Measure theory and probability Alexander Grigoryan University of Bielefeld Lecture Notes, October 2007 - February 2008 Contents 1 Construction of measures 3 1.1Introductionandexamples........................... 3 1.2 σ-additive measures ............................... 5 1.3 An example of using probability theory . .................. 7 1.4Extensionofmeasurefromsemi-ringtoaring................ 8 1.5 Extension of measure to a σ-algebra...................... 11 1.5.1 σ-rings and σ-algebras......................... 11 1.5.2 Outermeasure............................. 13 1.5.3 Symmetric difference.......................... 14 1.5.4 Measurable sets . ............................ 16 1.6 σ-finitemeasures................................ 20 1.7Nullsets..................................... 23 1.8 Lebesgue measure in Rn ............................ 25 1.8.1 Productmeasure............................ 25 1.8.2 Construction of measure in Rn. .................... 26 1.9 Probability spaces ................................ 28 1.10 Independence . ................................. 29 2 Integration 38 2.1 Measurable functions.............................. 38 2.2Sequencesofmeasurablefunctions....................... 42 2.3 The Lebesgue integral for finitemeasures................... 47 2.3.1 Simplefunctions............................ 47 2.3.2 Positivemeasurablefunctions..................... 49 2.3.3 Integrablefunctions........................... 52 2.4Integrationoversubsets............................ 56 2.5 The Lebesgue integral for σ-finitemeasure.................