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Asia's Journey to Prosperity

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Asia's Journey to Prosperity History of Asia’s development over the past 50 years and the role of ADB Yasuyuki Sawada Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank (ADB) Bio: Mr. Sawada is the chief spokesperson for ADB on economic and development trends, and leads the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, which publishes ADB's flagship knowledge products. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. 1 Presentation outline 1. Overview of the Asian Development Bank 2. 50 years of Asian development • Asia’s key development achievements • What explains Asia’s economic success • Issues subject to extensive debate • Asia’s challenges in post COVID-19 era 3. Summary and further readings 2 Presentation outline 1. Overview of the Asian Development Bank 2. 50 years of Asian development • Asia’s key development achievements • What explains Asia’s economic success • Issues subject to extensive debate • Asia’s challenges in post COVID-19 era 3. Summary and further readings 3 Overview: Asian Development Bank (ADB) • Founded in 1966, headquartered in Manila, Philippines • Main Roles: help developing member countries in Asia and Pacific through: (i) combining finance and knowledge; (ii) promoting good policies; and (iii) catalyzing regional cooperation and friendship. • 3,630 Staff • International Staff (1,318): Japan (142), United States (141), India (103), United Kingdom (86), Australia (82), Korea (76), PRC (67), Canada (55), Philippines (54), Germany (46), France (45), Pakistan (40), Indonesia (26), others (355) • Contribution by members • Ordinary Capital Resources (capital share, voting power share) • Japan (15.6%, 12.8%), United States (15.6%, 12.8%), • PRC (6.4%, 5.4%), India (6.3%, 5.3%), Australia (5.8%, 4.9%), • Indonesia (5.4%, 4.6%), Canada (5.2%, 4.5%), Korea (5.0%, 4.3%), • Germany (4.3%, 3.7%), others (30.4%, 41.7%) • Asian Development Fund (cumulative contribution) • Japan (38.5%), United States (13.3%), Australia (8.3%), • Canada (5.8%), Germany (5.6%), United Kingdom (5.1%), • France (4.0%), others (19.4%) 4 ADB Regional Members (49 economies) 68 current members: • 49 regional members (46 DMCs) • 19 non-regional members 5 Organization Chart of ADB Board of ADB Institute Governors Office of Anticorruption and Integrity Independent Evaluation Office of Professional Conduct Department Board of 1 Office of the Auditor General Office of the Compliance Directors Review Panel Office of the Ombudsperson Office of the Special Project President Facilitator Strategy, Policyand Partnerships Department - European Representative Office - Japanese Representative Office - North American Representative Office Vice President Vice President Vice President Vice President Vice President Vice President (Knowledge Mgmt. & (Administration & (Operations 1) (Operations 2) (Finance & Risk (Private Sector & Sustainable Dev’t) Management) Corporate Mgmt.) PPPs) Central and West Asia Department of Budget, Personnel and Office of Public-Private East Asia Department2 Controller’s Department Department2 Communications Management Systems Dept. Partnership Economic Research & Regional Information Technology Private Sector Operations South Asia Department2 Pacific Department2 Office of Risk Management Cooperation Department Department Department Sustainable Development & Office of Administrative Southeast Asia Department2 Treasury Department Climate Change Department Services Office of the General Counsel 1 Board of Directors currently consists of 12 Directors from Australia, Canada, PRC, Italy, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Philippines and the US. Office of The Secretary 2 Under operations departments, 40 field offices located in 40 countries. Procurement, Portfolio, and Financial Management Dept. 6 ADB Operations • Loans are financed from Ordinary Capital Resources (OCR) - Middle-income countries (per capita income ≤ $6,975): regular OCR at quasi market rate - Low-income countries (per capita income ≤ $1,175): concessional terms with long maturities and low interest rates • Asian Development Fund (ADF) grants are offered to countries with limited debt repayment capacity, i.e., Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Pacific island countries • Technical assistance includes capacity building, project preparation, and research (billion USD) 2020 Commitmentsa Q3 2020 Q3 2020 excluding cofinancing Outstanding Equity OCR (loans) 28.17 125.3b 52.7c Regular 23.65d 94.3 Concessional 4.52 31.0 ADF (grants) 1.08 1.5 Technical assistance 0.29 a Preliminary figures. b Excluding allowance for credit losses. c Including paid-in capital of $7.4 billion, ordinary reserves of $44.3 billion (comprising accumulated retained earnings ($13.6 billion) plus a one-time income ($30.7 billion) in 2017 due to the merger of the ADF loan assets with OCR) , and other reserves of $1.0 billion. d Including other debt securities and equity investments. 7 ADB Operations in 2020* by Volume of Financing Ordinary Capital Resources (OCR) and Asian Development Fund (ADF) Operations (Financing committed in 2020 increased to $29.25 billion from $21.64 billion in 2019) By Country Industry and Trade By Sector ICT 2% (3%) 0.2% (3%) Education 4% (5%) India Agriculture 18% (19%) Others 4% (10%) 22% (27%) Water & Urban 7% (6%) Public Sector Management 32% (14%) Finance Kazakhstan Philippines 11% (10%) 4% (1%) 14% (12%) Uzbekistan 4% (5%) Transport Thailand 13% (35%) 5% (2%) Indonesia Energy Bangladesh 12% (8%) 15% (12%) 6% (6%) PRC Pakistan Health 8% (10%) 6% (10%) 13% (3%) PRC = People's Republic of China. Bracketed numbers are from 2019. * Figures for 2020 are preliminary. 8 ADB Operations in Q3 2020 by Loans Outstanding Ordinary Capital Resources (OCR) and Asian Development Fund Operations (ADF) (Loans Outstanding in Q3 2020 increased to $125.29 billion from $109.33 billion in Q3 2019) By Country By Sector Industry and Trade Health ICT 2% 2% 0.5% Multisector 3% India Education Others 16% 20% 5% Transport Agriculture 28% 7% Sri Lanka 4% PRC Water & Urban 15% Viet Nam 8% 7% Finance Philippines Pakistan 9% 8% 11% Energy 18% Bangladesh Public Sector 9% Indonesia Management 10% 18% PRC = People's Republic of China. 9 Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD) President VP01 VP02 SDCC Office of the Chief Economist VPKM ERCD and Director General (EROD) VPAC DOC VPPC Financial Cooperation Statistics and Data Innovation VPFR and Integration (FCI) Unit (SDI) Team Dean, ADBI Economic Analysis and Macroeconomics Regional Cooperation and Operational Support Research Division Integration Division Division (ERMR) (ERCI) (EREA) 10 Examples of key ERCD outputs MANUALS REGULAR PUBLICATIONS OTHER PUBLICATIONS DIAGNOSTICS 11 https://adb-org.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_2RNf2HIrTmOPRq9S7QGUtg 12 Presentation outline 1. Overview of the Asian Development Bank 2. 50 years of Asian development • Asia’s key development achievements • What explains Asia’s economic success • Issues subject to extensive debate • Asia’s challenges in post COVID-19 era 3. Summary and further readings 13 ASIA’S JOURNEY TO PROSPERITY Policy, Market, and Technology over 50 Years 14 Table of Contents 1. 50 years of Asian development 9. Trade, foreign direct investment, and 2. The role of markets, the state, and openness institutions 10. Pursuing macroeconomic stability 3. Dynamics of structural transformation 11. Poverty reduction and income 4. Modernizing agriculture and rural distribution development 12. Gender and development 5. Technological progress as key driver 13. Environmental sustainability and 6. Education, health, and demographic climate change change 14. The role of bilateral and multilateral 7. Investment, savings, and finance development finance 8. Infrastructure development 15. Strengthening regional cooperation and integration in Asia 15 Presentation outline 1. Overview of the Asian Development Bank 2. 50 years of Asian development • Asia’s key development achievements • What explains Asia’s economic success • Issues subject to extensive debate • Asia’s challenges in post COVID-19 era 3. Summary and further readings 16 Asia’s key development achievements • Rapid economic growth led to rising share in global GDP… Average Annual per Capita Developing Asia’s share in global GDP increased from 4% to 24% in 1960-2018; GDP growth (%) including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, Asia’s share rose from 13% to 34%. 1960- PRC India Philippines Rest of the 4.7 PRC 2018 1.1% 1.3% 0.2% Rest of DA World 13.1% Rest of the 1.5% 5.6% World India 2010s 5.5 AUS & NZL 6.6% 2.2% 3.4% Japan 2000s 6.2 7.0% Latin America & Philippines the Caribbean European 0.4% 7.1% Union 1990s 4.9 Rest of DA MENA 23.2% 7.1% European 1960 3.9% 2018 Japan 1980s 5.0 Union 36.2% 7.5% 1970s 4.0 North AUS & America NZL 23.9% 1.9% 1960s 2.2 Sub-Saharan Latin America and the Africa Sub-Saharan Africa MENA North America Caribbean 2.2% 2.2% 4.3% 0 5 10 30.6% 7.4% AUS = Australia, DA = developing Asia, GDP = gross domestic product, MENA = Middle East and North Africa, NZL = New Zealand, PRC = People’s Republic of China. Sources: Asian Development Bank. Key Indicators Database. https://kidb.adb.org/kidb (accessed 2 August 2019); World Bank. World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org (accessed 2 August 2019); and Asian Development Bank estimates. 17 Asia’s key development achievements (cont.) • … and improvement in broad development indicators. Developing Asia 1960 1980 2000 2018 Per capita GDP (constant 2010 $) 330 647 1,762 4,903 Extreme poverty rate (% of population) … 68.1 33.1 6.9 Life expectancy at birth (years) 45.0 59.3 65.8 71.8 Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 137.8 80.1 48.1 26.2 Mean years of schooling (age 20–24) 3.5 6.0 7.7 8.9 … = data not available, GDP = gross domestic product. Notes: Poverty refers to the rate of extreme poverty using the $1.90 per day international poverty line at 2011 purchasing power parity for 1981, 2002, and 2015. Life expectancy refers to life expectancy at birth in years.
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