PAKISTAN

1 – 15 FEBRUARY 2021

BI-WEEKLY REPORT Table of Contents

Map - Key Events p3

Summary p4

Politics & Economy p5

Civil Society p7

Security p8

Environment & Infrastructure p10

Health & Medical p11

Sources & Links p12

About Spearfish p13 MAP- KEY EVENTS

3 SUMMARY

• COVID -19 remains a factor of insecurity for the economy of Executive Summary: and creates a sense of uncertainty leading to business distress, unemployment and rampant inflation. Covid-19 continues to impact the Pakistan economy, causing business stagnation, increasing unemployment, rampant inflation and general • Pakistan continues to commit to the MDGs (Millennium social distress. There is no change in the overall security state of the Development Goals) in order to eradicate a multitude of country. Militants are likely to continue their attacks in preventable diseases. and KPK. Though the impetus of attacks has reduced in other parts of the country, the state of security in Balochistan and KPK remains • TLP (Tehrik Labaik Pakistan) scheduled protest of TLP on 16 Feb unpredictable. 2021 has been postponed till 20 April 2021, in case of inaction by the Government on the French blasphemy issue. The Counter-Terrorism Department killed a terror suspect and arrested five others after an exchange of fire with them which lasted • There is continuing civil unrest associated with the political and for more than an hour in 's Shah Latif Town. economic instability. Threat Alerts for Karachi and Peshawar by National Counter Terrorism Authority. CTD foils major terror bid in NACTA has issued a threat alerts regarding the suspected terrorist Karachi. attacks in Karachi and Peshawar. Security has been put on high alert as the alert notification stated that a VBIED attack is imminent • All International Travelers to Pakistan will require a mandatory probably targeting any government building in the city. negative COVID-19 RT-PCR test that must be taken within 72 hours of the travel date. More than 1,000 Sikh pilgrims will arrive from through the Wagha border on Feb 18th to attend 100-year celebrations of ‘Saka’, on Feb • Thousands of miners in Balochistan have quit their jobs, while 21 at Gurdwara Janamasthan in Nankana Sahib. The pilgrims will also many have fled the province after insurgents killed 10 Hazara visit Gurdwara Punja Sahib Hassan Abdal, Kartarpur, Rohri Sahib and DISCLAIMER The information in this report is provided ‘as seen’ without any guarantee, express or implied, including but not limited to the implied workerswarrantiesat a colliery of merchantability,last month fitness. for a particular purpose, or noninfringement. Spearfish Suchagives no guaranteeSuda. that the information contained in this report will be timely or error-free. In no event shall spearfish be liable for any damages whatsoever, including any direct, indirect, special, consequential or any other damages, 4 arising out of, or in connection with, the use of, or reliance on, information available within this report. Use of this information is at your own risk and you agree to the limitations and disclaimers provided here. POLITICS & ECONOMY

COVID-19 continues to impact the politics and economy of The election year has begun in PAK (Pakistan Administered Kashmir), Pakistan. Political instability remains a factor of concern in the the opposition’s Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and the ruling country. Protest and demonstrations associated with political Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) have decided to stage their shows of matters has the potential to create social distress and civil unrest. power in the valley at two different venues.

Pricing for petroleum products and LPG in Pakistan have been The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) on Thursday announced it increased for February. The Pakistan Democratic Movement will stage a long march against the PTI government on March 26, seen (PDM) party continues to protest government policies, rampant as one of the major components of the opposition's anti-government inflation and the poor economy in the country. movement started last year. Caravans of long march will leave for from across the country on March 26. Thousands of coal miners in Balochistan have stopped working while others have fled the province after killing of 10 Hazara Islamabad lawyers violently protest demolition of chambers by CDA , workers. Up to 15,000 workers have downed tools in around 200 more protest by Lawyers is likely in coming days. mines since the incident, slashing production, say labour organizations and govt officials. Militant groups regularly extort Leaders of the Opposition's Pakistan Democratic Movement have protection money from colliery owners or kidnap workers for shown vehement opposition to the government's move to bring about an ransom. This will have an impact on the production of coal and amendment to the Elections Act and hold Senate elections via show of raise unemployment. hands.

The Grand Health Alliance (GHA), which comprises doctors and other medical staff at public hospitals, plans to hold a strike across Province from Feb.

5 POLITICS & ECONOMY

Macro-economic outlook.

The economy should rebound in FY 2021 as the impact of the The principal factors leading to periodic episodes of pandemic gradually fades and domestic demand recovers. macroeconomic stress are chronic and uncorrected structural Moreover, structural reforms should boost investment, while weaknesses in Pakistan’s economy. While, as in most developing foreign demand is expected to pick up in tandem with the global countries there are many areas of economic management that can economic recovery. However, mounting debt, uncertainty over be improved in Pakistan, the two principal causes of the evolution of the virus and geopolitical tensions cloud the macroeconomic problems have been the imbalance between outlook. Focus Economics panelists project growth of 1.5% in public sector spending and income, and Pakistan’s FY 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s underdeveloped export base, which makes the country highly estimate, and 4.0% in FY 2022. vulnerable on the external sector.

Pakistan’s real GDP growth is estimated to have declined from 1.9 percent in FY19 to -1.5 percent in FY20. The first contraction in decades, this reflects the effects of COVID-19 containment measures that followed monetary and fiscal tightening prior to the outbreak.

The outlook remains fragile, clouded by uncertainty regarding the oil price trajectory, rising inflation, elevated unemployment, security challenges and social tensions.

6 CIVIL SOCIETY During the review period, the following protests/demonstrations All Pakistan Employees Pensioners Labour Association will hold a protest were staged by civil society/political parties: Islamabad (22) today, in front of Parliament House, against the Government policies. They (18) Karachi (27) Quetta (03) Peshawar (12) and Gilgit announced to continue their sit-in till the fulfilment of their demands. Baltistan (08). No violence was reported. Other points to note include: 400 to 500 activists staged a demonstration near Habib bank Chorangi SITE Town, to protest against the basic rights of the • Civil society aims to connect poor or marginalized people with groups that labourer. This is likely to continue in the coming days. can mobilize support to help.

Two transgender individuals were killed by unidentified • Civil society in Pakistan contributes to the Social accountability, attackers for unknown reasons in . The family empowering communities. members and dozens of other members of the public staged a demonstration as a result. • Peaceful protest and demonstrations remain a common feature of society in the country. In Lahore, members of the pubic demonstrated at Circular Road against the price hike of utilities. • Pakistan has experienced a significant increase in the number of demonstrations throughout the country protesting various political, social, Civil society and activists of various religious and political economic and other issues. parties held rallies and seminars across the province to observe the Kashmir Solidarity Day.

7 SECURITY

Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and Political violence is a key threat, especially in parts of Khyber external conflict. While incidences of domestic terrorism have Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Successive nationwide counter- reduced, in part due to measures taken by the state. terrorism campaigns have, however, had some success in eliminating the reach of militant groups especially in Khyber During the review period the security situation of Pakistan Pakhtunkhwa province. Separatist groups based in Balochistan remain calm however political and civil unrest, kidnapping and have also conducted attacks on civilians, security forces, and crime are the potential security risks in the country. Banned infrastructure. terrorist outfit activities remain limited however and less organized/affective. KPK and Balochistan are prone to Kidnap-related events were reported in different parts of Pakistan terrorism and separatist movement related-risks. (Balochistan/Karachi) during the monitoring period, highlighting the widespread threat posed by the crime. Militants and anti-Separatist Both foreign visitors and domestic nationals face the threat of groups remain active in the KPK and Balochistan regions. kidnapping across Pakistan, which is particularly high in KPK and Balochistan. Abductions can be politically or financially Karachi CTD operation: Terrorists planned to target Sindh Assembly, motivated and have created a nexus between terrorist and Militants had done recce of the Sindh Assembly recently, One of the organised criminal groups. The threat of kidnap is highest in militants was supposed to blow himself up at the gate of the Sindh the areas bordering . Assembly while the other two stormed it, Three militants belonged to Kandahar while one was from Nangarhar in Afghanistan. To combat incidences of crime involving domestic workers and blue-collar labour, a joint initiative by the Police and Citizens Blasphemy allegations and ensuing violence is an organized Police Liaison Committee has introduced a new App criminal practice in Pakistan. However, blasphemy attacks do not “Tasdeeq” called Register & Verify Your Workers: Help build elicit the same kind of security response as a militant attack or their Verifiable Work History. regular criminal activity.

8 SECURITY

On 05 Feb , there were two IED explosion in Quetta and Sibbi During the review period, many targeted raids by the police Districts targeted a Kashmir Day Solidarity Rallies. At least eight were apprehended 1297 alleged criminals involved in different criminal killed many injured, Baloch Liberation Army is likely behind the activities in Karachi, Interior Sindh, Lasbella, , KPK and attacks. Attacks by the separatist groups likely to continue in most Balochistan. parts of Balochistan.

On 03 February, unidentified assailants lobbed a hand grenade at a security forces checkpoint on the visit day of Balochistan Chief Minister in Kharan. However, there were no reports of casualties or damages. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) spokesperson claimed responsibility.

Incidences of street crimes were recorded in Karachi (62), Punjab (107), Islamabad (17) and Balochistan (21), Peshawar ( 06) and GB (07). This highlighted the widespread nature of the risks and the failing control capacity of the existing security arrangements. The incidents were inflamed by reactions of residents further putting pressure on the government.

In December 2020 about 337 accused of blasphemy charges (under trial & convicted) were recorded in prisons of Punjab.

9 ENVIRONMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE

Roads. Natural Catastrophe.

Dense fog engulfs Lahore and Punjab district in the morning hours, with A 6.4 magnitude earthquake jolted multiple northeast and the air quality index touching 470 mark which is according to experts is northwestern parts of Pakistan, sending thousands of panicked hazardous. Motorways were closed and several domestic and people onto the streets. Tremors were felt in many cities of Punjab international flights were cancelled and delayed due to heavy fog around including Lahore, , Multan, Sargodha and Mianwali. the Allama Iqbal International Airport in Lahore. Reportedly, four persons According to the National Seismic Monitoring Centre, the epicentre were killed in Gujrat in different road traffic accidents due to dense fog. of the earthquake was in Tajikistan while the depth was merely 80km. Erratic driver behaviour is regarded as the most significant contributory factor to road traffic accidents (RTA’s) in Pakistan. Incidences of RTA’s Pakistan is subject to seismic activity. Earthquakes can occur were mostly recorded in urban areas. Islamabad has high levels due to without warning. Most buildings and residences do not meet violation of traffic rules. On 02 Feb at least 18 people were killed and 10 seismic standards. Although there is emergency response injured when a passenger coach overturned on Quetta Karachi road organizations MDMA and PDMA, a large-scale disaster could near Uthal. On 2 February, Islamabad, 4 people died, and 2 others were quickly overwhelm response capabilities. injured, after 5 speeding convoy vehicles passed a traffic light signal at sector G-11, on Srinagar Highway, and crashed into a car and a motorcycle. On 2 February in Lahore, 2 persons died in two different road traffic accidents separately in the Shahdara and Islampura areas. A total of 148 people were killed due to RTA’s.

10 HEALTH & MEDICAL

COVID-19 spread has led to stress on critical has gradually improved over time. Currently, 92% of facilities. As a result, the federal government is supporting the the rural population and 100% of the urban population have access to health federating units with extra resources to hospitals in major cities services. Such improvement has been a direct result of Pakistan meeting across the country, to allow an increased patient load. the Millennium Development Goals. Despite measures to increase the quality of healthcare facilities, most of the population prefers to consult Public Health Laboratories Division (PHLD) provide laboratory private doctors and practitioners. support to public and private sectors for timely detection, prevention and control, of infectious diseases during outbreaks Healthcare in Pakistan includes both private and public sectors. The private and epidemics. The division has established eight lab-based sector serves approximately 70% of the population. Private hospitals and Influenza Surveillance sentinel sites i.e., Islamabad, Lahore, healthcare institutions consistently outperform their public counterparts, as Karachi, Peshawar, Multan, Quetta, Gilgit and Muzaffarbad measured by the overall quality of healthcare and patient satisfaction. (AJ&K) for influenza surveillance and diagnostic services. Pakistan has received its first doses of the coronavirus vaccine, with China Pakistan crossed another grim milestone on Monday as the donating half a million doses of the Sinopharm vaccine to the country, the national COVID-19 death toll crossed the 12,333-mark amid calls health minister says. Citizens will be vaccinated in phases, starting with for procuring vaccines for the general public. frontline healthcare workers. All eligible citizens as per phases will be ZONE CONFIRMED CASES ACTIVE CASES DEATHS RECOVERIES informed to register once the vaccination process will start. Registration of ICT 42,688 1,402 486 40,800 SINDH 253,762 14,073 4,219 235,470 people aged above 65 years for COVID 19 vaccination started. PUNJAB 164,268 7,321 5,051 151,896 KPK 69,990 2,349 1,995 65,646 BALOCHISTAN 18,942 88 199 18,655 A smart lockdown has been imposed in six localities of Lahore after a rise in GILGIT BALTISTAN 4,940 33 102 4,805 the number of Coronavirus cases was reported. Lockdown will be for the AJK 9,487 481 281 8,725 next two weeks.

Status of COVID 19 cases in Pakistan. (1-15 Feb)

11 SOURCES & LINKS

Significant Dates and Forecast for February 2021: Significant Dates and Forecast for 2021:

• PDM protest anticipated of anti-government rallies in • International Conferences in Pakistan in 2020/2021. coming days. (https://conferencealert.com/pakistan.php)

• Jamaat-e-Islami holds additional protests across Sindh • Kashmir Solidarity Day in Pakistan in 2021 Province's Karachi through February. • Eid-ul-Fitr Holiday 13th May-16 May 2021 • Unionized government employees plan to continue holding strikes and protests in Pakistan into at least February. • Eid al-Adha Holiday 20th July- 22nd July 2021

• PDM to set out on the Long March towards Islamabad on • Independence Day ( 14th August 2021) March 26. • Ashura Holiday 18th August • TLP (Tehrik Labaik Pakistan) scheduled protest of TLP on 16 Feb 2021 has been postponed till 20 April 2021, in case • Chelum 28th September 2021 of inaction by the Government on the French blasphemy issue. • Quaid-e-Azam Day 25th December 2021

• The PDM has decided to launch the next phase of its • https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/pakistan/2021 movement to oust the incumbent government on 23rd Feb in Sargodha and 27th Feb in Khuzdar( Balochistan) • PDM (opposition alliance) announced long march in January 2021.

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