PAKISTAN 1 – 15 FEBRUARY 2021 BI-WEEKLY REPORT Table of Contents Map - Key Events p3 Summary p4 Politics & Economy p5 Civil Society p7 Security p8 Environment & Infrastructure p10 Health & Medical p11 Sources & Links p12 About Spearfish p13 MAP- KEY EVENTS 3 SUMMARY • COVID -19 remains a factor of insecurity for the economy of Executive Summary: Pakistan and creates a sense of uncertainty leading to business distress, unemployment and rampant inflation. Covid-19 continues to impact the Pakistan economy, causing business stagnation, increasing unemployment, rampant inflation and general • Pakistan continues to commit to the MDGs (Millennium social distress. There is no change in the overall security state of the Development Goals) in order to eradicate a multitude of country. Militants are likely to continue their attacks in Balochistan preventable diseases. and KPK. Though the impetus of attacks has reduced in other parts of the country, the state of security in Balochistan and KPK remains • TLP (Tehrik Labaik Pakistan) scheduled protest of TLP on 16 Feb unpredictable. 2021 has been postponed till 20 April 2021, in case of inaction by the Government on the French blasphemy issue. The Counter-Terrorism Department killed a terror suspect and arrested five others after an exchange of fire with them which lasted • There is continuing civil unrest associated with the political and for more than an hour in Karachi's Shah Latif Town. economic instability. Threat Alerts for Karachi and Peshawar by National Counter Terrorism Authority. CTD foils major terror bid in NACTA has issued a threat alerts regarding the suspected terrorist Karachi. attacks in Karachi and Peshawar. Security has been put on high alert as the alert notification stated that a VBIED attack is imminent • All International Travelers to Pakistan will require a mandatory probably targeting any government building in the city. negative COVID-19 RT-PCR test that must be taken within 72 hours of the travel date. More than 1,000 Sikh pilgrims will arrive from India through the Wagha border on Feb 18th to attend 100-year celebrations of ‘Saka’, on Feb • Thousands of miners in Balochistan have quit their jobs, while 21 at Gurdwara Janamasthan in Nankana Sahib. The pilgrims will also many have fled the province after insurgents killed 10 Hazara visit Gurdwara Punja Sahib Hassan Abdal, Kartarpur, Rohri Sahib and DISCLAIMER The information in this report is provided ‘as seen’ without any guarantee, express or implied, including but not limited to the implied workerswarrantiesat a colliery of merchantability,last month fitness. for a particular purpose, or noninfringement. Spearfish Suchagives no guaranteeSuda. that the information contained in this report will be timely or error-free. In no event shall spearfish be liable for any damages whatsoever, including any direct, indirect, special, consequential or any other damages, 4 arising out of, or in connection with, the use of, or reliance on, information available within this report. Use of this information is at your own risk and you agree to the limitations and disclaimers provided here. POLITICS & ECONOMY COVID-19 continues to impact the politics and economy of The election year has begun in PAK (Pakistan Administered Kashmir), Pakistan. Political instability remains a factor of concern in the the opposition’s Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and the ruling country. Protest and demonstrations associated with political Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) have decided to stage their shows of matters has the potential to create social distress and civil unrest. power in the valley at two different venues. Pricing for petroleum products and LPG in Pakistan have been The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) on Thursday announced it increased for February. The Pakistan Democratic Movement will stage a long march against the PTI government on March 26, seen (PDM) party continues to protest government policies, rampant as one of the major components of the opposition's anti-government inflation and the poor economy in the country. movement started last year. Caravans of long march will leave for Islamabad from across the country on March 26. Thousands of coal miners in Balochistan have stopped working while others have fled the province after killing of 10 Hazara Islamabad lawyers violently protest demolition of chambers by CDA , workers. Up to 15,000 workers have downed tools in around 200 more protest by Lawyers is likely in coming days. mines since the incident, slashing production, say labour organizations and govt officials. Militant groups regularly extort Leaders of the Opposition's Pakistan Democratic Movement have protection money from colliery owners or kidnap workers for shown vehement opposition to the government's move to bring about an ransom. This will have an impact on the production of coal and amendment to the Elections Act and hold Senate elections via show of raise unemployment. hands. The Grand Health Alliance (GHA), which comprises doctors and other medical staff at public hospitals, plans to hold a strike across Sindh Province from Feb. 5 POLITICS & ECONOMY Macro-economic outlook. The economy should rebound in FY 2021 as the impact of the The principal factors leading to periodic episodes of pandemic gradually fades and domestic demand recovers. macroeconomic stress are chronic and uncorrected structural Moreover, structural reforms should boost investment, while weaknesses in Pakistan’s economy. While, as in most developing foreign demand is expected to pick up in tandem with the global countries there are many areas of economic management that can economic recovery. However, mounting debt, uncertainty over be improved in Pakistan, the two principal causes of the evolution of the virus and geopolitical tensions cloud the macroeconomic problems have been the imbalance between outlook. Focus Economics panelists project growth of 1.5% in public sector spending and income, and Pakistan’s FY 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s underdeveloped export base, which makes the country highly estimate, and 4.0% in FY 2022. vulnerable on the external sector. Pakistan’s real GDP growth is estimated to have declined from 1.9 percent in FY19 to -1.5 percent in FY20. The first contraction in decades, this reflects the effects of COVID-19 containment measures that followed monetary and fiscal tightening prior to the outbreak. The outlook remains fragile, clouded by uncertainty regarding the oil price trajectory, rising inflation, elevated unemployment, security challenges and social tensions. 6 CIVIL SOCIETY During the review period, the following protests/demonstrations All Pakistan Employees Pensioners Labour Association will hold a protest were staged by civil society/political parties: Islamabad (22) today, in front of Parliament House, against the Government policies. They Lahore (18) Karachi (27) Quetta (03) Peshawar (12) and Gilgit announced to continue their sit-in till the fulfilment of their demands. Baltistan (08). No violence was reported. Other points to note include: 400 to 500 activists staged a demonstration near Habib bank Chorangi SITE Town, to protest against the basic rights of the • Civil society aims to connect poor or marginalized people with groups that labourer. This is likely to continue in the coming days. can mobilize support to help. Two transgender individuals were killed by unidentified • Civil society in Pakistan contributes to the Social accountability, attackers for unknown reasons in Gujranwala. The family empowering communities. members and dozens of other members of the public staged a demonstration as a result. • Peaceful protest and demonstrations remain a common feature of society in the country. In Lahore, members of the pubic demonstrated at Circular Road against the price hike of utilities. • Pakistan has experienced a significant increase in the number of demonstrations throughout the country protesting various political, social, Civil society and activists of various religious and political economic and other issues. parties held rallies and seminars across the province to observe the Kashmir Solidarity Day. 7 SECURITY Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and Political violence is a key threat, especially in parts of Khyber external conflict. While incidences of domestic terrorism have Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Successive nationwide counter- reduced, in part due to measures taken by the state. terrorism campaigns have, however, had some success in eliminating the reach of militant groups especially in Khyber During the review period the security situation of Pakistan Pakhtunkhwa province. Separatist groups based in Balochistan remain calm however political and civil unrest, kidnapping and have also conducted attacks on civilians, security forces, and crime are the potential security risks in the country. Banned infrastructure. terrorist outfit activities remain limited however and less organized/affective. KPK and Balochistan are prone to Kidnap-related events were reported in different parts of Pakistan terrorism and separatist movement related-risks. (Balochistan/Karachi) during the monitoring period, highlighting the widespread threat posed by the crime. Militants and anti-Separatist Both foreign visitors and domestic nationals face the threat of groups remain active in the KPK and Balochistan regions. kidnapping across Pakistan, which is particularly high in KPK and Balochistan. Abductions can be politically or financially Karachi