Flood Risk Modeling in Jakarta Budiyono, Y
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
VU Research Portal Flood risk modeling in Jakarta Budiyono, Y. 2018 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) Budiyono, Y. (2018). Flood risk modeling in Jakarta: development and usefulness in a time of climate change. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. E-mail address: [email protected] Download date: 06. Oct. 2021 1 Flood risk modeling in Jakarta development and usefulness in a time of climate change Yus Budiyono i to my mom who sent me to school and my dad who taught me to survive ii Thesis Committee: Promotors: prof. dr. J.C.J.H. Aerts dr. P.J. Ward Co-promotor: prof. dr. M.A. Marfai Reading Committee: prof. dr. E.C. van Ierland prof. dr. ir. J. Sopaheluwakan prof. dr. ir. C. Zevenbergen dr. H. De Moel dr. F. Colombijn dr. R. van Voorst Cover design: The shadow puppet’s Gunungan depicting a natural forested area at the top and a human area at the bottom. The Gunungan is used to change the scene throughout the story. The background is batik pattern Mega Mendung (thick cloud) and water. Cover design by Dinzagi Zainuddin and the author Printed by: IPSKAMP printing Yus Budiyono Flood risk modeling in Jakarta: development and usefulness in a time of climate change, 146 pages. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands (2018) With references, with summaries in English and Dutch. ISBN: 978-94-028-1195-7 iii VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT Flood risk modeling in Jakarta development and usefulness in a time of climate change ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad Doctor aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, op gezag van de rector magnificus prof.dr. V. Subramaniam in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van de promotiecommissie van de Faculteit der Bètawetenschappen op 21 november 2018 om 09:45 uur in de aula van de universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105 door Yus Budiyono geboren te Semarang, Indonesie iv Table of Contents Summary ............................................................................................................................................................... ix Samenvatting ...................................................................................................................................................... xiii Ringkasan .......................................................................................................................................................... xviii List of symbols and abbreviations ................................................................................................................ xxiii 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background and problem definition .................................................................................................... 2 1.1.1 History of flood in Jakarta ........................................................................................................... 2 1.1.2 Traditional flood management in Jakarta .................................................................................. 3 1.1.3 Drivers of flood risk in Jakarta ................................................................................................... 4 1.1.4 Flood risk assessment ................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Objectives and research questions ........................................................................................................ 6 1.3 General research strategy ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Framework of the research project ...................................................................................................... 9 1.5 Thesis outline ........................................................................................................................................... 9 1.6 Publications related to this Thesis ...................................................................................................... 10 2 Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta ............................................ 11 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 13 2.2 Methods ................................................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 Damagescanner ........................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Input data ..................................................................................................................................... 16 2.2.2.1 Hazard data ..................................................................................................................... 16 2.2.2.2 Exposure data ................................................................................................................. 18 2.2.2.3 Vulnerability data ........................................................................................................... 20 2.3 Results ...................................................................................................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Vulnerability curves and economic exposure values ............................................................. 23 2.3.1.1 Economic exposure values ........................................................................................... 23 2.3.1.2 Vulnerability curves ....................................................................................................... 23 2.3.2 Economic damage and risk based on existing economic exposure values and v vulnerability curves ............................................................................................................................... 24 2.3.3 Economic damage and risk based on new economic exposure values and all vulnerability curves ...................................................................................................................................................... 25 2.3.4 Economic damage per land use class ....................................................................................... 26 2.4 Discussion ................................................................................................................................................ 27 2.4.1 Comparison with reported damages and past modeling studies .......................................... 27 2.4.2 Sensitivity of flood risk assessment to the use of different vulnerability curves transferred from elsewhere .................................................................................................................. 29 2.4.3 Implications .................................................................................................................................. 30 2.4.4 Limitations and future research ................................................................................................. 32 2.5 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................. 33 3 River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change ......................................................... 36 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 38 3.2 Method ...................................................................................................................................................... 39 3.2.1 Hazard ........................................................................................................................................... 39 3.2.2 Exposure ....................................................................................................................................... 42 3.2.3 Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................. 46 3.3 Results ....................................................................................................................................................... 46 3.3.1 Flood risk under baseline conditions ....................................................................................... 46 3.3.2 Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation ...........................................